Saturday, November17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mattapoisett Center, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:34AMSunset 4:22PM Saturday November 17, 2018 5:32 AM EST (10:32 UTC) Moonrise 2:51PMMoonset 1:21AM Illumination 69% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ234 Buzzards Bay- 353 Am Est Sat Nov 17 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through this afternoon...
Today..W winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt this afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 foot or less.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of rain after midnight.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of rain in the morning.
Mon night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of showers after midnight.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of rain and snow showers in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 foot or less.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 foot or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 353 Am Est Sat Nov 17 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pressure builds over the waters today and tonight, then moves off to the east Sunday afternoon. A cold front crosses the waters Sunday night and Monday morning. High pressure then rebuilds over the waters during midweek. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mattapoisett Center, MA
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location: 41.61, -70.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 170924
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
424 am est Sat nov 17 2018

Synopsis
West wind aloft from the great lakes to new england will bring
dry and chilly weather this weekend. Expect unsettled conditions
Sunday night through Monday as weak low pressure moves across,
bringing periods of light rain and or snow. More cold air will
move in by mid week into thanksgiving, though it should remain
dry. Temperatures may begin to moderate toward the end of the
week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Upper low pressure north of hudsons bay and upper ridge over the
pacific coast. This brings a west to east upper flow from the
great lakes to new england. Cross sections show a moist layer
between 850 mb and 925 mb but without lift. This suggests a dry
day with a mix of clouds sun. The mixed layer should reach to
about 900 mb, with temps at the top of that layer supporting
surface MAX temps in the 40s. Winds in the mixed layer reach 20
kt and possibly 25 kt in places, supporting west wind gusts of
20 to 25 mph.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Sunday
Overview...

west to east flow continues through Sunday evening. A weak
shortwave moves through the great lakes Sunday afternoon and
turns toward new england.

Tonight...

surface high pressure builds east, maintaining dry weather over
new england with diminishing wind. Expect clearing in at least
eastern mass and ri, possibly a few high clouds over NRN ct and
western mass. There should still be some snow cover
refrigerating the air, especially in areas that had the most
snow Thursday night. Dew points dip into the 20s, and with
favorable conditions for cooling expect the min sfc temps to
reach the 20s with lower 30s along the coast.

Sunday...

high pressure is overhead most of Sunday before shifting off to
the east. The great lakes shortwave may generate a weak low
pressure over the ohio valley that moves our way late in the
day. Expect a dry day through sunset with partly sunny skies to
start, then increasing mid and high clouds through the day. The
mixed layer will be more shallow, but with colder temps. So
expect MAX sfc temps in the 30s and lower 40s.

The main uncertainty is whether any light rain or snow can reach
us before 7 pm. Best chance would be in the western hills and ct
valley, but even there the chances are limited. We brought a 25
pct chance in right at the end of the forecast period.

Long term Sunday night through Friday
Highlights...

* weak low pressure brings periods of rain and or snow late
sun into mon
* high pressure brings dry but cold conditions for Wed and
thanksgiving day
* models signaling a potential warm up late this week
overview...

broad h5 trough Sunday night digs across the great lakes early
next week with mid level steering flow aloft. This will bring a
weak surface front low pressure out of the mid appalachians S ny
Sunday night, bringing a band of light rain and or snow through
Monday. As this boundary slowly slips S Monday night into
Tuesday with the mid level trough, leftover rain snow showers
will linger as colder air works in.

The majority of the 00z model suite in pretty good agreement
around the middle of the week, with the mid level trough pushing
e Tuesday night. Some model spread with another front possibly
approaching late Wed wed night. Most of the moisture should
remain N of the region in the W steering flow. More cold air
lingers into thanksgiving, but could see some moderation toward
the end of the work week as models signaling a rise in the mid
level heights.

Details...

Sunday night and Tuesday...

as the broad h5 trough across the northern plains western great
lakes begins to dig across the lakes into the ohio valley early
this week, noting a weak deformation zone in the general w-sw
steering flow. This will bring a light band of precipitation
across the region and, with borderline temps in place especially
during the nighttime hours, could see periods of light rain
and or snow mainly late Monday Monday night. The boundary should
slow push E during tue, though light precip will linger with
scattered rain snow showers. Expect another bout with temps well
below normal during Tuesday, as highs will struggle to freezing
across the higher inland terrain, ranging to the lower-mid 40s
along the immediate coast.

Looks like the best chance for steady precip will occur Sunday
night-Monday. Not a whole of of precip with the system, though,
with QPF values from 0.1 to 0.3 inches, highest central and n
mass.

Tuesday through Friday...

the digging h5 trough will sweep across the region around mid
to late day on Tuesday. Some precip will linger across central
and eastern areas through midday, then should push offshore.

Can't rule out spotty showers across the E slopes of the
berkshires through the day. The cold pool across central and
eastern canada by mid week will hold the coldest air in that
region, but noting h85 temps slowly but steadily falling through
this timeframe.

Will see dry but cold conditions on Wednesday as high pressure
builds S of the region, keeping a cool w-nw flow in place. With
the fast flow aloft, may see a clipper type system push across
northern new england late Wed wed night. Should remain dry
across the region, though some clouds will move into the higher
terrain. The chilliest temperatures are forecast for turkey day,
with readings only managing to reach the mid 20s to around 30
across the higher terrain ranging to around 40 along the s
coast.

By late Thursday and Friday, noting slow but steady mid level
height rises as another surface high pressure moves in from the
great lakes. Should see dry conditions continue as temperatures
will moderate, with Friday's forecasted highs about 5-10 degrees
milder than Thursday.

Aviation 09z Saturday through Wednesday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Sunday ... High confidence.

Vfr through the period. Cloud bases 3500 to 4500 feet today.

Cloud bases Sunday will be above 10k feet most of the day, but
thickening and lowering during the afternoon.

Winds above the ground will be from the west at 20-25 kt today,
and some of that will reach down to the ground in gusts,
diminishing toward sunset. Lighter winds Sunday.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... Moderate to high confidence in taf.

Outlook Sunday night through Wednesday ...

Sunday night: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Chance sn,
chance ra, patchy br.

Monday: MVFR ifr conditions possible. Chance ra, chance sn,
patchy br.

Monday night: MVFR ifr conditions possible. Chance shsn, chance
shra, patchy br.

Tuesday: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Breezy. Slight
chance shsn.

Tuesday night through Wednesday:VFR. Breezy.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Sunday ... High confidence.

Today...

high pressure is building in from the great lakes. This should
bring dry weather through the day, with 20 to 25 kt winds above
the surface reaching down to the surface in west gusts. Rough
seas slowly diminish during the day, but 5 foot seas will linger
on the outer waters through this evening. Gales have been
converted to small craft advisories for both wind and seas.

Tonight and Sunday...

diminishing wind and seas as high pressure moves overhead. Winds
less than 25 kt. Leftover 5 foot seas tonight on the outer
waters will diminish below 5 feet Sunday.

Outlook Sunday night through Wednesday ...

Sunday night through Monday: winds less than 25 kt. Chance of
rain.

Monday night through Tuesday: winds less than 25 kt. Chance of
rain showers.

Tuesday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Wednesday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for
anz231>235-237-251.

Small craft advisory from 9 am this morning to 4 pm est this
afternoon for anz230-236.

Small craft advisory until 9 am est Sunday for anz250-254-255.

Small craft advisory until 4 am est Sunday for anz256.

Synopsis... Wtb evt
near term... Wtb
short term... Wtb
long term... Evt
aviation... Wtb evt
marine... Wtb evt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 7 mi33 min 43°F 48°F1014.6 hPa (+2.4)
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 12 mi48 min 5.1 42°F 1014 hPa33°F
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 21 mi33 min W 23 G 26 43°F 1015.6 hPa (+2.8)
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 23 mi33 min 39°F 50°F1015.2 hPa (+2.7)
FRXM3 24 mi33 min 41°F 34°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 24 mi33 min SW 17 G 19 41°F 1014.8 hPa (+2.7)
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 26 mi33 min W 21 G 25 45°F 49°F1014.3 hPa (+2.2)34°F
44090 27 mi33 min 50°F3 ft
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 32 mi33 min WSW 8.9 G 13 38°F 1015.1 hPa (+2.8)
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 32 mi33 min WSW 13 G 17 40°F 45°F1015 hPa (+2.6)
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 32 mi48 min WSW 8.9 38°F 1014 hPa31°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 33 mi33 min SSW 14 G 16 37°F 47°F1015.1 hPa (+2.7)
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 35 mi33 min WSW 11 G 14 38°F 46°F1015.2 hPa (+2.7)
PVDR1 36 mi33 min SW 8 G 12 38°F 1014.7 hPa (+2.7)33°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 38 mi33 min SW 5.1 G 8 37°F 48°F1014.3 hPa (+2.8)
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 41 mi33 min W 8.9 G 14 43°F 45°F1014.7 hPa (+2.5)
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 49 mi20 min 55°F9 ft

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA12 mi38 minWSW 8 G 1610.00 miFair37°F32°F81%1014.6 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA13 mi40 minWSW 910.00 miMostly Cloudy38°F33°F83%1014.3 hPa
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA15 mi40 minW 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy43°F32°F65%1014.9 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA21 mi41 minSW 610.00 miFair38°F30°F73%1013.7 hPa
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA24 mi41 minSW 510.00 miA Few Clouds38°F30°F73%1014.1 hPa

Wind History from FMH (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNW5NW5NW6NW6N55NE5N7NE6E7NE10NE10NE10E8
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2 days agoW10W13
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Tide / Current Tables for Bird Island, Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts
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Bird Island
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Sat -- 12:21 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 02:57 AM EST     3.56 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:34 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:05 AM EST     1.04 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:50 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:17 PM EST     3.67 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:20 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:39 PM EST     0.72 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.12.73.33.63.32.51.81.211.11.31.622.63.33.63.52.81.91.20.80.70.91.2

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:20 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 01:15 AM EST     3.60 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 04:52 AM EST     -0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:34 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:31 AM EST     -3.69 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 10:43 AM EST     0.16 knots Slack
Sat -- 01:40 PM EST     3.33 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 01:50 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:20 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:02 PM EST     -0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:52 PM EST     -3.86 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 11:02 PM EST     0.17 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.33.63.53.22.4-1-2.9-3.6-3.6-3.1-2.11.32.73.23.33.12.40.5-2.7-3.6-3.9-3.5-2.6-0.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.