Monday, January21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oak Harbor, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:51AMSunset 5:36PM Monday January 21, 2019 1:08 PM EST (18:08 UTC) Moonrise 6:21PMMoonset 8:17AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ143 Expires:201901210915;;678068 Fzus51 Kcle 210327 Nshcle Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 1027 Pm Est Sun Jan 20 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez142-143-210915- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Reno Beach To The Islands Oh- 1027 Pm Est Sun Jan 20 2019
.heavy freezing spray warning in effect until 10 am est Monday...
Overnight..Northwest winds 10 to 20 knots. Heavy freezing spray. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 5 to 15 knots. Freezing spray early. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Monday night..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Wednesday through Friday. The water temperature off toledo is 32 degrees, off cleveland 35 degrees and off erie 33 degrees.
LEZ143


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oak Harbor, OH
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location: 41.61, -83.11     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 211750
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1250 pm est Mon jan 21 2019

Synopsis
Arctic high pressure will be over the region today. The next
system tracking from the central plains will move across the
great lakes Tuesday night and Wednesday. This will bring a
wintry mix followed by rain showers and a transition back to
snow. Low pressure for the end of the week will return
temperatures to well below normal.

Near term through Tuesday
Allowed the wind chill advisory to expire. However it remains
very cold with wind chills still below zero.

Previous discussion...

remainder of the winter storm warning has expired. Continuous
lake effect snow showers, albeit much lighter, have continued
all night across the southern and eastern suburbs of cleveland
and eastward toward geneva. Overnight snowfall reports have been
of upwards of 3 new inches of snow. The band that has wobbled
on either side of geneva and across northeast trumbull county is
beginning to lose its connection with lake huron. Still expect
the light snow showers to continue across the cle metro area and
northeast oh through the morning hours. Caution will still be
needed on area roadways. With time today, shear will begin to
break up the bands of snow and the ridge will put an end to the
snow. Additional dustings to locally 2 or 3 more fluffy inches
possible.

Wind chill readings are coming in at between -10 and -20 degrees
and the wind chill advisory remains through noon when all should
be 'warmer' than the -10 threshold. Winds will slowly diminish
throughout the day.

Outside of the lake effect clouds, skies will be clear.

Temperatures will recover just the upper single digits and lower
teens. A wind chill advisory is not anticipated for tonight. An
early drop in temperatures, many below zero, will be followed by
a slow rise across the west steading temperatures across the
east. Increasing cloud cover and the beginning of a surge of
warm air advection will halt the drop. Winds will also be
lighter at the coldest part of the night. Precip will hold off
until after the daytime Tuesday. A slow, but steady warming
trend will bring late day highs to the upper 20s and close to
the freezing mark Tuesday.

Short term Tuesday night through Thursday night
An active midweek period is expected with precip type
transitions and temperature fluctuations. The main focus will be
low pressure moving into the central great lakes by early
Wednesday morning, followed by a cold frontal passage later
Wednesday into Wednesday night. High pressure will attempt to
build across the region Thursday into Thursday night. The latest
model runs have some noticeable differences with the
timing speed and strength of the low moving into the region and
the timing of the frontal passage. Given the uncertainty with
the model solutions, kept the forecast fairly close to its
previous iteration, with the highest pops (categorical) from 06z
Wednesday through 00z Thursday. A wintry mix is possible at the
onset of precip early Wednesday morning, but this will
transition to mainly rain for much of the late morning early
afternoon across the area. Behind the front, colder air will
move into the area allowing for a transition back to snow
Wednesday afternoon evening, with a transition to all snow, or
possibly freezing drizzle with model sounding showing little ice
in the clouds, after 06z Thursday. There is also some
uncertainty with the exit of the front east out of the area, as
a southern stream low tracks northward along the atlantic coast,
helping to anchor the front west of the appalachians into
Thursday. Have opted for chance pops across the east Thursday
before ridging briefly builds into the area. Precip chances
increase Thursday night as another arctic front barrels toward
the area, however timing forcing and moisture differences lend
to lower confidence in finer details at this point, so will opt
for blanket chance pops Thursday night. A non-diurnal
temperature trend is expected Tuesday night through midday
Wednesday ahead of the front, with temps rising through the 30s
Tuesday night into the mid 40s Wednesday. Some guidance suggests
temps could rise in the upper 40s, but will remain conservative
given model differences and deep snowpack across the local
area. Highs on Thursday will be in the upper 20s to low 30s,
with lows dropping into the teens Thursday night with the arctic
frontal passage.

Long term Friday through Sunday
The long term period will be dominated by significant troughing
across the entire eastern conus, with negative height temp
anomalies. Predominantly northwest flow will put the region in
the crosshairs for a clipper system over the weekend, although
model solutions are all over the place with timing strength. It
looks like the best timeframe for widespread snow will be
sometime Saturday or Saturday night, with lake effect snow
outside of this timeframe. Have generally went with chance pops
for the period, with highs generally in the upper teens to low
20s and lows in the single digits.

Aviation 18z Monday through Saturday
Light lake effect snow continues near and east of kcle to kcak
but does not reach into NW pa. Locations where there are still
some flurries or a passing snow shower will continue to see MVFR
conditions. Although the heaviest snow showers may dip briefly
to ifr levels. Ceilings should lift through the afternoon across
the east as the lake effect gradually ends at some point this
evening. The west will remainVFR through the night.

Winds will continue to decrease and become light and variable
during the evening. After midnight southeast to east winds will
begin to increase but should remain under 10 knots.

Outlook... Non-vfr possible Tuesday night into Friday.

Marine
Winds will continue to subside over the lake today as high
pressure builds across the region, but will keep the small craft
advisory and heavy freezing spray warning east of the islands
through mid morning with some higher winds waves out there early
this morning. Satellite images indicate widespread ice
formation west of the island, with the ice extending eastward
from point pelee south to huron. Conditions will be optimal for
continued ice growth over the next 24 hours. Winds will increase
out of the south on Tuesday and Tuesday night ahead of a cold
front, becoming westerly then northwesterly Wednesday night into
Thursday. An arctic front will cross the lake Thursday night
through Friday, with winds increasing out of the northwest.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Oudeman
near term... Mullen oudeman
short term... Greenawalt
long term... Greenawalt
aviation... Mullen
marine... Greenawalt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TWCO1 10 mi28 min WNW 8.9 G 12 8°F 1034.6 hPa-2°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 14 mi68 min WNW 12 G 13 10°F 1037 hPa (+1.5)
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 20 mi38 min WNW 5.1 G 7 7°F 1035.8 hPa-8°F
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 21 mi38 min W 9.9 G 13 9°F 32°F1035.8 hPa3°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 33 mi68 min Calm G 2.9 3°F 1033.5 hPa (+2.0)
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH 36 mi83 min SSW 4.1 5°F 1036 hPa-6°F
LORO1 49 mi38 min NNW 12 G 17 12°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Toledo - Toledo Executive Airport, OH20 mi75 minWNW 410.00 miFair6°F-6°F57%1038 hPa

Wind History from TTF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW12
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N7NW7NW3NW4NW5W4NW7NW8NW5NW6NW5NW4NW4NW5NW5NW5NW5NW7NW3W6
1 day agoNE10
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2 days agoNW7NW9NW6NW5N5N4NE3CalmCalmNE4E5NE6NE6E6NE5NE6NE4NE10
G14
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.