Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oak Harbor, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:20AMSunset 5:14PM Thursday November 15, 2018 2:06 PM EST (19:06 UTC) Moonrise 1:43PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 52% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ143 Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Reno Beach To The Islands Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- 941 Am Est Thu Nov 15 2018
Rest of today..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Rain and sleet late this morning, then rain and snow this afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. Rain likely with a chance of snow in the evening, then a chance of rain and snow overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Friday night..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest and diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Saturday through Monday. The water temperature off toledo is 42 degrees, off cleveland 48 degrees and off erie 45 degrees.
LEZ143 Expires:201811152115;;343260 FZUS51 KCLE 151441 NSHCLE Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland OH 941 AM EST Thu Nov 15 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ142>144-152115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oak Harbor, OH
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location: 41.61, -83.11     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 151444
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
944 am est Thu nov 15 2018

Synopsis
A closed upper level low over southern illinois this morning
will move along the ohio river today. A surface area of low
pressure will move into northern ohio and a second deeper low
will intensify off the east coast. The result will be a wintery
mix across the region today.

Near term through tonight
The -fzra now south of a fdy-cak line with surface temps
hovering between 32-30f across forecast area. Everything from
columbus area south has now transitioned to rain. With the dew
points now saturating into lower 30s surface temps will start
rising above freezing from the south by noon. Colder air over
michigan has reached toledo area. Surface low now on ky wv
border with 3 hour ht falls just north of pbz. As low tracks ne
ne this afternoon the colder air will sag se.

6am update
hazardous travel conditions expected due to a mix of rain, snow,
and freezing rain. Precip shield advancing on the lakeshore
counties at the time of this issuance. Mixed precip reports are
coming in with some reports of glazing on roads in counties
along the us 30 corridor. Radar indicates areas of higher precip
rates which extend from columbus into fort wayne in. Ice storm
warnings are in place for neighboring offices for these
locations. Ice accumulations are not expected to be as
significant in the local area though some locations could see
upwards of a tenth of an inch. Road temperatures should
diurnally warm above freezing by 11 am for most of the area
apart from NW pa and some portions of NE oh. Snow will be slow
to accumulate due to warm surface temperatures and the amount of
mixed precip types. NW pa could see upwards of 5 inches of snow
due to the colder ground temperatures and longer duration.

Elsewhere around 1 inches with a localized higher amounts. Most
of the area is expected to warm above freezing today with the
most efficient precip between 15-21z.

Prev discussion...

focus is on the wintery mix of precipitation with potential for
accumulating snow and ice. Forecast appears on track as the
storm system drifts into the area this morning. Current
temperatures around 30f will remain steady through daybreak and
then slowly rise starting in the south. Temperatures will climb
to the mid 30s for all but NW oh and NW pa where it will
struggle to break above freezing. Surface temperatures will play
a critical role in the precipitation type with concerns for
freezing rain. Freezing rain is being observed upstream in
southern ohio and advancing northeast. Not expecting as much
impact locally as surface temperatures will begin the diurnal
warming at the arrival time of the precip. Precip will
initialize as snow, possibly mixed with sleet as a warm nose of
+1 to +2c moves into central oh. Will watch this transition zone
closely as it makes it trek north towards the lake by late
morning. Have trended towards the cooler guidance in
anticipation of evaporative cooling chipping away at the warm
core aloft. Central areas will see little if any snow
accumulation due to melting during expected afternoon rain.

There will be a transition period between 14-18z of possible
freezing rain or sleet. Only light coating of ice possible due
to surface temperatures expected above freezing in the
afternoon. Main concern is the 8 hours or so of potential
freezing rain snow sleet in the higher terrains of NW pa.

Believe the mixed precip type will keep total ice snow
accumulations below warning criteria. Raised QPF amounts from
previous forecast which now projects snow totals of 2-4" in nw
pa.

Conditions will slowly improve overnight as the energy with the
system is shifted to the east coast. As the upper level trough
moves east around 06z, the mid levels begin to show a fair
amount of drying including in the dgz. Without ice crystals
present we could see a brief window of light rain freezing
rain. Added moisture from the lake should keep support ongoing
snow east, with a mix of rain near the warmer lakeshore. For
Friday the colder air aloft will support marginal instability
over the lake. Flow will become favorable for the primary
snowbelt in the afternoon. Surface temperatures will likely be
above freezing in most areas, so not expecting more than an
inch or two of snow accumulation in the higher terrain of nw
pa.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
Deeper moisture strips away quickly on Friday night with lingering
precipitation mainly confined to NW pa. By this point precipitation
will be light but there is some question with regards to precip type
given moisture depth of only about 5000 feet. Could see liquid or
snow and have included a chance of freezing drizzle inland after
midnight just as precipitation is tapering off.

Another shortwave trough slides across the upper great lakes on
Saturday. At the surface, low level convergence will increase ahead
of the trough with scattered light rain snow settling south into the
snowbelt with the cold front bringing a wind shift to the northwest.

Chances of rain snow expand across the area on Sunday as a shortwave
rides out of the plains, enhancing lift along the 850-700mb front.

Most areas will not see any accumulation during the day on Sunday
with temperatures in the mid 30s but could see up to an inch of
snow, mainly east of i-71 on Sunday night.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
Below normal temperatures continue through the extended with cool
northwest flow over the region. Monday will be the coolest with
temperatures in the lower to mid 30s again followed by gradual
warming Tuesday and Wednesday. Could see some lake effect snow
showers on Tuesday as deeper moisture returns across mainly eastern
portions of the snowbelt but only looks like a quick shot.

Sufficient southwest flow develops by Tuesday night to push
precipitation east up the lake into new york.

Aviation 12z Thursday through Monday
Precipitation this morning is rapidly deteriorating ceilings
and visibilities. Look for a quick turn around fromVFR to ifr
as mixed precipitation moves over the terminals. Freezing rain
will linger primarily through midday at which time surface
temperatures climb above freezing. Ifr conditions will be most
prevalent in bursts of snow showers which will continue into
tonight as the trough moves east. Ifr CIGS will persist
overnight.

Outlook... Non-vfr likely tonight area wide and in the northeast
Friday. Non-vfr again Saturday through Sunday.

Marine
Easterly winds of 10-20 knots early this morning will veer to
southeast by this afternoon and eventually southwest tonight as weak
low pressure lifts north across lake erie. Winds will ramp up on
Friday ahead of a cold front that will move east across the lake
towards midday. Winds on the lake will increase to 30 knots. Can not
rule out that a few reports of near gale conditions may occur on the
east end of the lake but looks brief and will keep the winds at 30
knots for now. The small craft will be needed through Friday night
before winds back to the southwest allowing waves in the nearshore
waters to drop off.

Winds will be light Sunday then shift to the northwest and increase
with the passage of another cold front. Small craft advisories may
be needed again east of cleveland.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... Winter weather advisory until 7 pm est this evening for ohz003-
006>013-017>023-027>033-036>038-047.

Winter weather advisory until 3 am est Friday for ohz014-089.

Pa... Winter weather advisory until 3 am est Friday for paz001>003.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jamison
near term... Djb jamison
short term... Kec
long term... Kec
aviation... Jamison
marine... Kec


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TWCO1 10 mi17 min ESE 15 G 17 36°F 1013.4 hPa34°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 14 mi67 min ESE 16 G 17 36°F 1017.7 hPa (-3.8)
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 20 mi37 min ESE 6 G 8.9 33°F 1016.5 hPa31°F
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 21 mi37 min ESE 4.1 G 8 35°F 40°F1017.2 hPa34°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 33 mi67 min SE 8.9 G 12 34°F 1015.2 hPa (-3.8)
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH 36 mi82 min ESE 2.9 34°F 1018 hPa32°F
45005 - W ERIE 28NM Northwest of Cleveland, OH 38 mi27 min SE 14 G 18 36°F 1017.2 hPa34°F
LORO1 49 mi37 min SE 8.9 G 11 35°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Toledo - Toledo Executive Airport, OH20 mi14 minE 51.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist33°F32°F96%1016.8 hPa

Wind History from TTF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4E3E3NE3NE4NE6E6NE4NE6NE5NE5E7
G16
SE7E8E7E5E5SE5
1 day ago--------------------------------------CalmNW3NW3N3Calm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm------N4------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.