Monday, November19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Barnstable Town, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:34AMSunset 4:18PM Monday November 19, 2018 2:57 PM EST (19:57 UTC) Moonrise 3:44PMMoonset 3:21AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ232 Nantucket Sound- 116 Pm Est Mon Nov 19 2018
This afternoon..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. A slight chance of rain.
Tonight..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of rain.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 116 Pm Est Mon Nov 19 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A weak weather system will move across the waters this afternoon bringing a chance of rain. Low pressure moves up from the midwest and passes along the south coasts of ri and massachusetts Tuesday morning and midday. This will bring another chance of rain tonight and Tuesday. High pressure then builds cold and dry weather for Wednesday through Friday...including thanksgiving day. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Barnstable Town, MA
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location: 41.63, -70.31     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 191923
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
223 pm est Mon nov 19 2018

Synopsis
* near- and short-term forecast updates only...

developing storm center tonight through Tuesday night will bring
accumulating snows mainly along and N of the ma-turnpike, impacting
the Tuesday am commute for some. Otherwise an all rain or rain snow
mix. Turning cooler and drier behind the storm, breezy, as an arctic
front sweeps across the region late Wednesday followed by near record
cold and bitterly cold wind chills Wed night through thanksgiving
day. Dry weather with less wind and moderating temperatures Friday
and Saturday. However wintry weather may return to southern new
england Saturday night into Sunday.

Near term until midnight tonight
230 pm update...

break in the action. Between the waves, quiet conditions prevailing.

But precipitation moving back in during the evening hours, becoming
widespread towards midnight. Overall light to start, and we've got
some warmer air to overcome out ahead. Anticipating a start to
snow for the high terrain whereas as lower elevations around the
berkshires and worcester hills it'll start off as a rain snow
mix prior to the lower column cooling and snow prevailing. N winds
will be driving through this forecast period, no longer light and
variable, and likely wet-bulbing will prevail. Most of the impacts
along and N of the ma-pike, can't rule out some travel hazard
conditions developing especially in the way of reduced visibility.

Short term midnight tonight through Tuesday night
Tonight through Tuesday...

strengthening storm system across new england bringing accumulating
around 3-inch snows mostly N of the ma turnpike, especially the high
terrain. Tuesday am travel impacts with reduced visibility and snow
on area roadways for those areas noted.

Synoptically. Initial low sweeps new england with maturation further
downstream. Mainly open wave, not so much closed h925-85, tracking
over interior new england around the ma vt nh border, low level
convergent focus of the anti-cyclonic warm-moist conveyor belt out
ahead of a digging, sharpening mid-level trof axis and accompanying
vortmax energy. Initiated low to mid level thermal packing as well
as deformation frontogenesis beneath mid-level ascent and initial
diffluence aloft, majority low-level forcing up thru the dendritic
growth zone, h6-7, so not impressively deep. Omega values through
the column weak, especially through the dendritic growth zone which
happens to exhibit some fairly steep lapse rates. Overall, a decent
front-end thump leading out ahead of the surface to h85 low. The
storm becomes better organized through Tuesday as it exits into the
gulf of maine having swept across the CAPE cod canal around 1 pm.

Challenges. Thermal fields thickness tell the story. Right on the
freezing cusp with deeper arctic air absence n, hardly a N NE high
over canada. While N isallobaric flow, it'll only drain S surface
temperatures ranging around 30 with dewpoints a tad lower such that
wet-bulbing can only do so much. Low-level column nearly isothermal
up through h8, warmer air intruding as the h925-85 flow flutters
along the ma nh vt border, possibly some drier air working in
through the dendritic growth zone, while fluttering around freezing
as the event evolves into the daylight hours, dealing with forecast
headaches concerning precipitation types and snowfall accumulations
as well as snowfall intensity. Speaking of, as model forecast mass
fields look pretty similar, small-scale focusing forcing mechanisms
vary as discerned via model forecast plume diagrams. Considerable
spread in respect to liquid-equivalent precipitation and snowfall,
the latter ranging from sub-advisory to warning levels in particular
locations. Relates back to snowfall intensity, some low probability
of 1" hr noted in high-res guidance, and thermal field alignment as
to where the rain snow cut-off line will be at any one particular
time. Forcing majority is, however, below the dendritic growth zone
with this synoptic setup. Of last note, model forecasts assume that
everything which falls accumulates on the ground which we know is
not always the case. So it's definitely not easy but we're going to
do our best as we always do.

Decisions. Despite uncertainties and challenges noted, a consensus
weighted forecast does not seem like a bad idea. Gave greater weight
towards the href blended within. With probabilities noted, and the
19.12z forecast suite slightly jogging s, focus is around the ma
nh vt border. Coating N of the ma-pike, with 1-3" lower elevations
while 3-6" higher, 500 feet and above especially. Potentially near
warning-level snows up around the N ma towns of ashburnham, ashby,
and townsend. Keep with present N W ma winter weather advisories.

The storm center sweeping NE across the CAPE cod canal important
with respect to blustery N NE winds out ahead.

Impacts. Expect hazardous travel over N W ma especially the higher
terrain of worcester hills and berkshires. Route 2, western-half of
ma i-90, N ma i-95, i-190 out of worcester, and the NW beltway of
495 all have the risk of accumulating snows on roadways. Reduced
visibility as well especially within any moderate to heavy snow as
near 1" hr snowfall rates are possible. Thinking a very low risk of
any mixed wintry precip-types mainly in the form of freezing rain.

Tuesday night...

turning colder and drier. The storm continuing to deepen into the
gulf of me, blustery NW winds follow. Some lingering snow showers
possible, especially for the high terrain. Otherwise the main storm
is the driving cold along with breezy conditions that'll make it
feel 5 to 10 degrees colder than the forecast nighttime lows around
the low to mid 20s, possibly upper teens for the high terrain.

Long term Wednesday through Sunday
4 am update...

highlights...

* arctic front late Wed with snow squalls possible
* near record cold & bitterly cold wind chills Wed night thanksgiving
* moderating temps and dry Friday into Saturday
* wintry weather possible Sat night into Sunday
Wednesday...

arctic front moves thru the region 18z-00z. Models differ on track
of arctic frontal wave. The NAM is farthest to the south across the
nh ma border, while the remainder of the guidance is across northern
new england. The NAM solution would yield more frontal convergence
into northern ma resulting in a greater risk of snow squalls. While
reminder of guidance keeps greater risk across northern new england.

Still almost 72 hrs out so will have to see how later model runs
trend. NAM solution supports steep low level 0-2 km theta-e lapse
rates and plenty of low level moisture for instability to be
realized. This combined with shallow robust convergence would
support potential for a few strong snow squalls. Given very busy
holiday travel Wed will have to watch this closely. Regarding high
temps, 925 mb temps peak around -4c ahead of the arctic front, so
could see highs 35-40 before the frontal passage.

Wednesday night and thanksgiving...

near record cold and accompanied by bitterly cold wind chills as
arctic airmass overspreads the region. By 12z Thu model guid has 850
temps down to -20c to -22c across the region! These values are -3
standard deviations colder than climo. 1000-500 thicknesses are
impressive as well, with 498 dam contour traversing northern ma!
given the magnitude of arctic airmass we followed by the coldest
guid which yields mins just before sunrise Thu of 5 to 15 followed
by temps only rebounding into the upper teens and low 20s
thanksgiving day. In addition strong northwest winds will provide
bitterly cold wind chills. For outer CAPE cod, arctic air streaming
in on nnw winds will resulting in possible ocean effect snow showers
with the greatest probability from pvc to cqx given wind trajectory.

Friday...

cold anomalous trough moves offshore with arctic 1037 mb high
settling over the region. Very cold morning with lows in the single
digits and teens! Temp moderate into the upper 20s and lower 30s.

Thus not as cold as Thu and especially less wind. However still much
colder than normal as normal highs should be around 50! Nevertheless
much more tolerable than thu.

Next weekend...

dry weather possibly lingers into much of sat. However active
weather pattern with next trough approaching the region Sat night
into Sunday. Its a southern stream system so abundant moisture is
available. Given cold air from Thu Fri retreats looks warm enough
for rain however still 6-7 days away. Nonetheless heavy rain
potential that would impact heavy travel day Sunday.

Aviation 19z Monday through Saturday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday night ... High confidence.

Rest of today...

mix MVFR to low-endVFR. Will hold ifr for the high terrain and
closer to the ma nh vt border with respect to CIGS and vsbys.

Light winds overall. Pockets -fzra for high terrain terminals
through 16z, otherwise -ra lingering through early afternoon
then a break before the next storm into this evening.

Tonight and Tuesday...

a mix of MVFR-ifr to start except SE new england terminals,
conditions lowering with onset ra sn. Sn for N W ma terminals
especially over the high terrain. Ra sn mix around the ma-pike
while rain elsewhere or transitioning to rain. Vsbys more than
likely impacted by sn. Can't rule out ifr-lifr conditions. N
winds prevailing, stronger NE along the E ma coastline as a
storm center passes over the CAPE cod canal around 18z. Gusts up
around 25 kts possible for E coastline terminals.

Tuesday night...

winds shifting NW as conditions improve towardsVFR, the 18z
storm center lifting out into the gulf of me. Gusts up to around
25 kts possible especially over the high terrain and along
coastline terminals.

Kbos terminal...

a break but CIGS only lifting 2-3 kft with a lull in outcomes from
earlier -ra. Then looking at lowering conditions evening and over-
night with snra mix through early morning before changing over to
all ra. MVFR-ifr CIGS and vsbys with increasing N NE winds through
the day shifting NW into evening and overnight. Gusts potentially
as high as 25 kts with NE winds around 18z before turning NW and
remaining blustery.

Kbdl terminal...

keep MVFR prevailing. Then lower conditions moving back in towards
evening continuing through overnight. Rasn mix right through the
Tuesday morning push, becoming all rain towards midday. Mostly ifr,
improving MVFR toVFR late Tuesday into Tuesday evening. N winds
throughout shifting NW late. Somewhat breezy, especially late with
potential gusts up to 20 kts.

Outlook Wednesday through Friday ...

Wednesday: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Slight chance shsn.

Wednesday night through thanksgiving day:VFR. Windy with gusts
to 35 kt.

Thursday night:VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt.

Friday:VFR.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday night ... High confidence.

Storm center passing over the CAPE cod canal around 18z Tuesday.

Will see increasing E NE winds out ahead especially over the e
waters, S SW for the S waters. Behind the storm center, winds
turning nw, remaining blustery. Throughout, gusts up around 25
kts possible. Can't rule out near gale force gusts. Small craft
headlines in effect for the later-half of Tuesday going into
Tuesday night as seas build up around 5 to 7 feet on the outer
waters.

Outlook Wednesday through Friday ...

Wednesday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Wednesday night: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of snow showers.

Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Thanksgiving day: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up
to 35 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of snow showers.

Visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Thursday night: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Local visibility 1 to
3 nm.

Friday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Climate
With the potential of the coldest air of the season moving into
the region around thanksgiving, here are the record temperatures
for november 22nd and the holiday of thanksgiving.

November 22nd
location record low record minimum high
boston... ... ... .9 (1879) 24 (1880)
hartford... ... .14 (1969) 27 (1978)
providence... ..16 (1987) 30 (2008)
worcester... ... 11 (1987) 24 (2008)
thanksgiving
location record low record minimum high
boston... ... ... 11 (nov 27, 1873) 24 (nov 28, 1901)
hartford... ... .12 (nov 28, 2002) 27 (nov 23, 1989)
providence... ..14 (nov 23, 1972) 30 (nov 28, 1996)
worcester... ... .9 (nov 23, 1989) 22 (nov 23, 1989)

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... Winter weather advisory from 10 pm this evening to 5 pm est
Tuesday for maz002>004-008-009-026.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 4 pm Tuesday to 4 am est Wednesday
for anz232>234.

Small craft advisory from 1 pm Tuesday to 1 am est Wednesday
for anz231-251.

Small craft advisory from 4 pm Tuesday to 6 am est Wednesday
for anz235-237.

Small craft advisory from 10 am Tuesday to 6 am est Wednesday
for anz250.

Small craft advisory from 1 pm Tuesday to 6 am est Wednesday
for anz254>256.

Synopsis... Nocera sipprell
near term... Nocera sipprell
short term... Sipprell
long term... Nocera
aviation... Nocera sipprell
marine... Nocera sipprell
climate... Sipprell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 10 mi38 min SSE 1.9 G 3.9 49°F 48°F1017.1 hPa44°F
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 12 mi73 min 1 54°F 1017 hPa47°F
44090 15 mi28 min 50°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 20 mi40 min 51°F 49°F1016.9 hPa
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 26 mi40 min WSW 2.9 G 6 53°F 46°F1017.1 hPa
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 41 mi68 min WNW 9.7 G 12 46°F 2 ft1017.2 hPa (-2.2)44°F
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 42 mi58 min W 8.9 G 9.9 50°F 1017.9 hPa (-1.8)
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 46 mi40 min Calm G 0 48°F 1017.2 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 46 mi46 min 48°F 50°F1017.3 hPa
FRXM3 46 mi40 min 49°F 42°F

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA4 mi62 minSW 810.00 miOvercast53°F43°F69%1016.7 hPa
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA11 mi63 minWSW 710.00 miOvercast52°F44°F77%1017.3 hPa
Chatham, Chatham Municipal Airport, MA18 mi66 minSW 410.00 miFair51°F45°F80%1017.5 hPa
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA22 mi65 minSSW 810.00 miOvercast54°F46°F75%1017 hPa

Wind History from HYA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3S5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmE4SE5SE6SW7W7W7SW8
1 day agoW8W8W5W3W3W5W5W5W6NW5W6W6W6W5NW6W3NW4NW3NW6N66NE4NE5NE5
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Tide / Current Tables for Hyannis Port, Nantucket Sound, Massachusetts
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Hyannis Port
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Mon -- 02:12 AM EST     0.23 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:20 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:35 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:02 AM EST     3.09 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:41 PM EST     0.22 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:44 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:17 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:23 PM EST     3.01 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.30.60.20.40.81.21.82.42.93.12.92.41.70.90.30.20.611.52.12.732.92.5

Tide / Current Tables for Pollock Rip Channel, Massachusetts Current
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Pollock Rip Channel
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:19 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 03:14 AM EST     2.01 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:16 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:33 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:03 AM EST     -1.76 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 12:12 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:42 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:40 PM EST     1.96 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 04:16 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:39 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:21 PM EST     -1.70 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.31.21.721.91.30.3-0.8-1.5-1.8-1.6-1-0.20.71.51.91.91.60.7-0.4-1.3-1.7-1.6-1.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.