Sunday, November18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Falmouth, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 4:22PM Sunday November 18, 2018 11:04 AM EST (16:04 UTC) Moonrise 3:18PMMoonset 2:20AM Illumination 81% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ234 Buzzards Bay- 1019 Am Est Sun Nov 18 2018
This afternoon..N winds around 5 kt, becoming se around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of rain after midnight.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of rain.
Mon night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 foot or less. A chance of rain after midnight.
Tue..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 foot or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 1019 Am Est Sun Nov 18 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pressure over the waters moves off to the east by evening. A couple of low pressure centers move up from the midwest today and spread light rain across the waters tonight and Monday morning. A cold front then sweeps the rain out to sea by Monday evening. Low pressure passes across the waters Tuesday bringing another chance of rain. High pressure then builds cold and dry weather for Wednesday and thanksgiving day. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Falmouth, MA
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location: 41.64, -70.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 181517
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
1017 am est Sun nov 18 2018

Synopsis
High pressure over southern new england today will bring dry
weather. Weak low pressure moves up from texas today, spreading
clouds over new england during the day, then bringing light snow
and rain tonight and Monday. More cold air will move in midweek,
including thanksgiving, though it should remain dry. Cold air
could be near or record breaking for late november.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
10 am update...

cooler, cloudy day. Thickening mid-high clouds streaming in from
the sw, some awesome cloud-optics with the morning sunrise. As
the day progresses, expect winds to become S as high pressure
currently centered over the E ma coastline pushes e. Temperatures
not as mild yesterday, anticipating highs up around the upper
30s to low 40s, a few spots around the mid 50s to which the cape
and southeast ma has already achieved with thinner clouds and
more abundant sunshine.

Dry forecast overall. The initial indications of isentropic ascent
along 285-295k surfaces of a moist h6-9 layer evident over W pa.

But a dry layer to fall through noted by the 12z albany sounding
around h8. It'll take awhile for the column to moisten in our
neck of the woods, precipitation, so light in nature, to reach
the ground. Better pop chances held off till overnight tonight.

Again, clouds thicken and lowering with column moistening.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Monday
A weak shortwave moving through the northern jet stream crosses
the midwest today and moves through new england tonight. A
second shortwave found in the southern stream crosses our area
on Monday. Both are rather weak, but well-positioned.

The jet supporting the first shortwave brings its right
entrance region over new england tonight, supporting
weak... About 20 mb per hour... But sufficient lift to generate
light precipitation. The jet supporting the second shortwave
approaches Monday morning and places our area under the left
exit region, maintaining support of lift during the morning.

Temperatures initially suggest snow, but developing southerly
winds Monday will allow temperatures to climb, changing the snow
to rain during the morning. We continue to expect amounts from a
coating to an inch, except possibly 2 inches on the berkshire
east slopes.

Rain tapers off during the afternoon as the jet support moves
off to the east.

The mixed layer remains shallow, but south winds will bring
sufficient warm advection to support MAX sfc temps in the 40s
and lower 50s.

Long term Monday night through Saturday
Highlights...

* a couple weak low pressure waves may bring periods of light
rain and or snow Monday night into Wednesday
* high pressure brings dry and cold conditions for Wed through
thanksgiving day
* signs a potential warm up late next week into next weekend
overview...

broad h5 long wave trough begins to dig as it rotates E about
the base of cutoff low across hudson bay and northern quebec
early this week. Surface low pressure in the mid level flow will
pass off the S coast, bringing another shot of light
precipitation across the region Mon night and tue. The fast flow
aloft will push this system along as the trough shifts across
the region Tue night.

May see yet another weak system move across northern new
england on Wed with some light snow showers across N central and
w mass, but this could usher in quite cold air. H5 heights
lower by thanksgiving in the NW flow. While the core of cold air
remains N of the region late Wed into thu, may see h925 temps
drop to 2-3 sd below normal (00z gefs) which may mix down. Could
see most locations remain below freezing for highs! Depending
upon how far S the core of this low level cold air pushes s,
could see record low MAX temps on Thursday for some of our long
term climate sites.

Looks like dry but cold conditions will linger into next
weekend, but temps may start to slowly moderate during Saturday.

Details...

Monday night through Wednesday...

with fast flow aloft around the base of cutoff mid level low
across hudson bay and quebec, two waves of low pressure look to
bring periods of light snow and or rain showers. The first looks
to occur Monday night into Tuesday as the low passes S of the
region. Best chance for light snow accumulations forecast across
look to occur across the higher terrain during Tue morning to
midday. This system does progress steadily, so should push e
after the afternoon.

A second low is a clipper type system, which will sweep across
northern new england during Wednesday. May see scattered snow
showers N central and W mass, possibly into CAPE ann and cape
cod later in the day or Wed evening. Once the front passes, may
see temps drop quickly as cold air toward the region in the nw
flow aloft.

Thanksgiving into Friday...

large high pressure pushes out of central canada, bringing what
could be the coldest air of the season. Highs on thanksgiving
may run 20 to 25 degrees below seasonal normals! May see wind
chills early thanksgiving morning in the single digits.

Core of coldest air should shift E on Friday as the center of
the high moves E out of ny state. Temps will rebound somewhat,
may still around 15 degrees below normal.

Saturday...

the high will slowly shift across new england, so expect
continued dry conditions. Temps should rebound with rising h5
heights as h5 ridge builds E across the region.

Aviation 15z Sunday through Thursday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Monday ... High confidence.

Today...

vfr. Light W winds turning s. Lowering and thickening mid-high
level CIGS towards evening. Sct-bkn low-endVFR CIGS as well
beneath the mid-high layer.

Tonight into Monday...

conditions lowering with widespread MVFR, ifr-lifr mainly confined
to the high terrain and wherever -sn sn develops. Initial sn from
ghg-pvd-oxc northward, the ra sn line retreating N into the Monday
morning hours towards bvy-orh-psf, outcomes concluding into the
afternoon. Overall light precipitation, snow outcomes of a coating
up to around 2" with highest amounts confined to high terrain
terminals. S SW winds shifting W NW through the day, gusts as high
around 15 kts mainly over coastal terminals.

Monday night through Tuesday night...

brief clearing into Monday night with lower CIGS lingering over se
ma. However, widespread lower MVFR towards ifr return with onset
of -sn sn once again. Can't rule out +sn. Ifr-lifr cig and vsby
impacts with any sn. Sn for all terminals but CAPE and islands
initially, will see the ra sn line retreat towards bvy-sfz-hfd
towards the end of the event late Tuesday afternoon, conditions
improving thereafter into Tuesday night.

N winds throughout, heightening towards late Tuesday with gusts
up as high as around 25 kts especially over coastal terminals,
becoming NW and remaining gusty through Tuesday night.

Kbos terminal...

downward trend beginning 0z Monday. Potential -sn during the Monday
am push, however expect the changeover to -ra to be ongoing during
the timeframe. Vsby impacts if anything but expect runways to remain
wet. Monday night into Tuesday of greater concern. Accumulating snows
and more significant impacts possible during the Tuesday am push
and through Tuesday afternoon.

Kbdl terminal...

downward trend beginning 0z Monday. Likely -sn during the Monday am
push, however it will not be long before seeing a changeover to -ra.

Vsby impacts anticipated but runways remaining wet. Monday night into
Tuesday of greater concern. Accumulating snows and more significant
impacts possible during the Tuesday am push and through Tuesday
afternoon.

Outlook Wednesday through Thursday ...

Wednesday:VFR. Breezy.

Wednesday night through thanksgiving day:VFR. Windy with gusts
to 35 kt.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Monday ... High confidence.

Today...

good boating weather. High pressure pushing out into the gulf of
me. Light winds turning s.

Tonight through Monday...

weak area of low pressure sweeping across S new england. S winds
in advance turning W NW with passage. Gusts up as high as 15 kts,
seas remaining below 5 feet. With accompanying rain, potential
visibility impacts on the waters.

Monday night through Tuesday night...

more potent low pressure center sweeping NE in vicinity across cape
cod and the islands late Tuesday. N winds out ahead followed by
w winds behind, sustained up around 10 to 15 kts with gusts up
around 25 kts. Headlines will likely be necessary as seas build
5 to 7 feet on the outer waters. More moderate rain snow outcomes,
with snow more likely over the cooler E waters, likely visibility
impacts for boaters.

Outlook Wednesday through Thursday ...

Wednesday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of
rain showers.

Wednesday night: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of snow
showers.

Thanksgiving day: moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts
up to 35 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of snow showers.

Climate
With the potential of the coldest air of the season moving into
the region around thanksgiving, here are the record temperatures
for november 22nd and the holiday of thanksgiving.

November 22nd
location record low record minimum high
boston... ... ... .9 (1879) 24 (1880)
hartford... ... .14 (1969) 27 (1978)
providence... ..16 (1987) 30 (2008)
worcester... ... 11 (1987) 24 (2008)
thanksgiving
location record low record minimum high
boston... ... ... 11 (nov 27, 1873) 24 (nov 28, 1901)
hartford... ... .12 (nov 28, 2002) 27 (nov 23, 1989)
providence... ..14 (nov 23, 1972) 30 (nov 28, 1996)
worcester... ... .9 (nov 23, 1989) 22 (nov 23, 1989)

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Wtb evt
near term... Wtb sipprell evt
short term... Wtb
long term... Evt
aviation... Wtb sipprell evt
marine... Wtb sipprell evt
climate... Sipprell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 8 mi34 min 42°F 48°F1028.1 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 8 mi79 min 5.1 42°F 1028 hPa28°F
44090 22 mi34 min 51°F1 ft
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 23 mi34 min NNW 5.8 G 7.8 42°F 48°F1028.2 hPa32°F
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 26 mi64 min NNW 5.1 G 6 40°F 1029.2 hPa (+1.2)
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 27 mi34 min 40°F 50°F1029.1 hPa
FRXM3 28 mi34 min 41°F 25°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 28 mi34 min NNW 5.1 G 7 44°F 1028.9 hPa
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 36 mi34 min NNE 4.1 G 7 41°F 1028.8 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 36 mi79 min N 5.1 42°F 1029 hPa24°F
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 37 mi34 min N 6 G 8 40°F 45°F1028.7 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 37 mi34 min N 5.1 G 7 42°F 48°F1028.8 hPa
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 39 mi34 min NNE 2.9 G 7 43°F 46°F1028.1 hPa
PVDR1 40 mi34 min NW 2.9 G 5.1 43°F 1028.7 hPa25°F
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 40 mi40 min N 1.9 G 4.1 41°F 48°F1029.1 hPa
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 41 mi34 min NE 5.1 G 7 40°F 44°F1028.2 hPa
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 48 mi74 min N 12 G 16 40°F 2 ft1028.3 hPa (+1.4)27°F
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 49 mi74 min N 12 G 14 38°F 51°F2 ft1028.1 hPa (+1.3)26°F

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA7 mi69 minNW 5 G 1110.00 miFair41°F26°F57%1028.4 hPa
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA16 mi71 minN 710.00 miFair44°F28°F53%1028.4 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA17 mi71 minNNW 410.00 miFair42°F27°F55%1028.3 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA19 mi72 minN 510.00 miFair43°F28°F58%1028.5 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA20 mi68 minN 610.00 miFair44°F30°F60%1027.8 hPa

Wind History from FMH (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Chappaquoit Point, West Falmouth Harbor, Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts
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Chappaquoit Point
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:20 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 03:53 AM EST     3.56 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:35 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:34 AM EST     0.73 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:17 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:12 PM EST     3.54 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:20 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:53 PM EST     0.41 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.422.73.33.63.22.51.71.10.80.80.91.21.72.43.13.53.42.71.810.50.40.6

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:20 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 02:14 AM EST     3.70 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 05:43 AM EST     -0.18 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:35 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:25 AM EST     -3.85 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 11:37 AM EST     0.03 knots Slack
Sun -- 02:17 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:38 PM EST     3.53 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 04:19 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:57 PM EST     -0.18 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:45 PM EST     -4.00 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 11:55 PM EST     0.02 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.53.43.73.63.22.3-1.5-3.2-3.8-3.8-3.2-21.62.93.43.53.22.5-0.6-2.9-3.8-4-3.6-2.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.