Sunday, December17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Falmouth, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 4:16PM Sunday December 17, 2017 8:37 AM EST (13:37 UTC) Moonrise 7:13AMMoonset 5:09PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ234 Buzzards Bay- 725 Am Est Sun Dec 17 2017
Today..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Tonight..N winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of light rain.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tue night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 725 Am Est Sun Dec 17 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pres builds over new england today. A warm front approaches tonight, then lifts north across the waters Mon. A cold front will sweep across new england and the coastal waters Tue night followed by gusty winds Wed. High pres builds across the waters Thu. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Falmouth, MA
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location: 41.64, -70.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 171208
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
708 am est Sun dec 17 2017

Synopsis
Cold and dry today but with light winds as high pressure builds
across the region. A weak wave of low pressure may bring spotty
light snow to the region late tonight into Monday morning,
mixed with rain along the south coast. Temperatures will be
milder on Tuesday ahead of a cold front, then turning blustery
and colder Wednesday into Thursday. A wave of low pressure which
may track to our west will bring the potential for a wintry
mix rain sometime Friday and or Saturday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
650 am update...

skies were mainly clear across the region and, with light and
variable or calm winds, excellent radiational cooling allowed
temps in the normally colder locations of interior E mass and
the inland valleys to freefall early this morning. Temps
bottomed out at 5 degrees at ktan and kcef, 6 degrees at kbaf,
and 8 degrees at both kijd and kowd.

A band of low clouds continues to stream across SE ny, extreme
sw ct and across long island in the NW flow aloft. High pressure
extending from southern ontario into upstate ny and W vt will
shift slowly E across new england today. So will see a mainly
sunny day across the region.

Near term forecast pretty much on track, though have updated
mainly to bring temps and dewpoints current and incorporated
into near term trends.

Previous discussion...

expect a lot of sunshine today, although some high clouds will
being to move in from the SW this afternoon. Light NW winds and
shallow mixing will result in a cold day. 925 mb temps running
from -8c to -10c, so highs will be mostly upper 20s to lower
30s, which is around 10 degrees below normal.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Monday
Tonight...

high pres gradually retreats to the NE as weak warm front
approaches from the south. Weak warm advection develops which
will bring increasing clouds. Initially, low levels will be
quite dry in the evening, then gradually moisten after midnight
from SW to ne. As low level moisture increases, some patchy
light snow is possible, especially in western new eng. Lows
mainly in the teens to lower 20s.

Monday...

the weak warm front will lift north into sne bringing lots of
clouds with some light snow possible, especially in the morning.

Any snow would change to rain along the south coast as milder
air advances northward. Forcing is weak so not much precip and
any accum would be limited to a coating to less than an inch.

During the afternoon, it looks mostly dry although can't rule
out some spotty light precip given the moist low levels. Given
that the ice crystal growth region is fairly moist through the
day, any precip would likely be in the form of light snow vs
freezing drizzle where temps remain near freezing. It appears
the warm front will get hung up near the south coast as a weak
wave develops on the front. This will result in a north-south
gradient of temps. Highs may climb into the lower 40s near the
immediate south coast but cooler as you head north with coldest
temps near or a bit below freezing in northern and especially
northeast ma.

Long term Monday night through Saturday
Highlights...

* dry conditions Monday night into Tuesday, then rain and or
snow showers across NW mass Tue afternoon evening
* mainly dry and much milder tue
* blustery and colder with mainly dry weather Wed into thu
* a period of snow and or wintry mix possible Fri morning to
midday, changing to rain
overview...

00z model suite continues to signal progressive steering flow
across the lower 48 through about the middle of this week as a
nearly zonal northern stream flow is in place. Models then
transition around the late Tue as h5 trough begins to dig across
central canada into hudson bay, while another long wave trough
moves into the pacific nw. The central canadian trough
progresses across the region wed, but appears the weak surface
reflection will remain far enough N of the region for mainly dry
conditions.

Models showing another high amplitude ridge from alaska south
across the eastern pacific by late this week. As the downstream
long wave trough digs from the great lakes to the desert sw,
noting another short wave in the northern stream flow with
another shot of arctic air trying to work south from the north
pole into the northern plains states into early next weekend.

Model solution spread increases, since each member handling this
feature somewhat differently, but the GFS ggem and ECMWF all
appear to have a similar idea in digging a long wave trough
across the central u.S. Late this week into the holiday weekend,
with moderating temperatures possible by fri-sat.

A lot of questions with the potential of low pressure and the
approach of an arctic front sometime next weekend, but with wide
model solution spread due to the timing and track of this
potential feature, have low forecast confidence beyond Thursday.

Details...

Monday night and Tuesday...

temps will hold steady Mon night, mainly in the upper 20s to
around 30 away from the coast and lower-mid 30s at the
shoreline. With light s-sw wind flow, expect dewpoints close to
the temps so will see patchy fog develop as well. For now, have
carried a dry forecast Mon night. Can't rule out some rain
and or snow showers across NW mass especially across the higher
terrain of the northern berkshires, which may continue into
Tuesday but changing over to rain. Expect highs on Tue mainly in
the 40s, possibly touching 50 in a few spots along the S coast.

Tuesday night...

as a cold front approaches Tue night, most of the precip will
linger across the E slopes of the berkshires Tue night. Main
energy moisture remains closer to the parent low over central
quebec, so looks like best shot for precip will be well N of the
region but can't rule out a few stray showers mainly across n
mass.

A cold front will cross the region Tue night into early wed
with perhaps a few brief rain snow showers. High temps will
recover well into the 30s to around 40, but a well mixed
atmosphere should result in northwest wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph
developing Wednesday and making it feel colder.

Wednesday through Thursday night...

the cold front should exit the coast by around 12z on
Wednesday with w-nw winds. Will see excellent low level mixing,
so winds will be gusty. Could see gusts up to 30-40 mph wed
afternoon. Highs will range from only 30-35 degrees across the
higher inland terrain up to the lower 40s along the immediate
coast.

Expect continued dry conditions on Thursday, but it will even
colder with highs only in the mid to upper 20s well inland
ranging to the lower-mid 30s at the coast. Expect light west
winds. Clouds will increase Thu night with a few snow showers
reaching into far NW mass toward daybreak.

Friday and Saturday...

low confidence forecast continues. As long wave trough digs
south out of central canada into the northern plains, will see
backing mid level steering flow to sw, along with increasing h5
heights. Arctic air starts to push S across hudson bay during
the weekend, with the arctic cold pool pushing s. So, as high
pressure exits Friday morning, leading edge of precip ahead of
an approaching warm front will bring light snow during fri.

Should see transition to a mix of sleet and rain during the
morning across central and western areas, with temps already
above freezing as the precip moves eastward Fri morning.

Some question whether snow or even a little freezing rain may
linger across the higher terrain of the northern berkshires fri
evening, but eventually should change over to all rain with a
non-diurnal temp trend Fri night with s-sw wind flow in place.

Next question will be how quickly the arctic front will push out
of the mississippi valley into the appalachians. Wide variance
in track and timing of the front toward the region, but at this
point should see mainly rain on Saturday with mild temps. Highs
look to approach 10 degrees above seasonal normals.

Aviation 12z Sunday through Thursday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Monday ... High confidence.

Today...VFR.

Tonight... MainlyVFR with gradually lowering cigs, becoming
MVFR in western new eng after midnight. Patchy light snow
possible.

Monday... Widespread MVFR cigs. Chance of light snow or rain.

Kbos terminal... High confidence.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence.

Outlook Monday night through Thursday ...

Monday night: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Patchy br.

Tuesday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with local
gusts to 30 kt.

Tuesday night through Wednesday:VFR. Windy with local gusts to
30 kt.

Wednesday night through Thursday:VFR. Breezy.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Monday ... High confidence.

Today... Nw winds diminishing through the morning to 15 kt or
less. Seas 4 ft or less early, and will continue to subside.

Tonight... Light winds and seas.

Monday... Winds becoming SW and increasing in the afternoon but
gusts below 20 kt. Seas below sca. Chance of light snow changing
to rain.

Outlook Monday night through Thursday ...

Monday night: winds less than 25 kt.

Tuesday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.

Tuesday night: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Wednesday: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Wednesday night: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.

Thursday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Kjc evt
near term... Kjc evt
short term... Kjc
long term... Evt
aviation... Kjc evt
marine... Kjc evt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 8 mi49 min 26°F 42°F1024.5 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 8 mi112 min 2.9 21°F 1025 hPa11°F
44090 22 mi67 min 45°F3 ft
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 26 mi97 min NW 16 G 18 26°F 1025.3 hPa (+1.5)
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 27 mi49 min 21°F 40°F1025.5 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 28 mi49 min NNW 5.1 G 7 23°F 1024.4 hPa
FRXM3 28 mi49 min 22°F 11°F
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 29 mi47 min NW 18 G 21 26°F 41°F2 ft1023.9 hPa (+0.8)13°F
PRUR1 34 mi49 min 23°F 12°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 36 mi112 min N 4.1 21°F 1003 hPa13°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 36 mi49 min N 2.9 G 5.1 22°F 1024.9 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 37 mi49 min NNW 6 G 11 23°F 41°F1024.7 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 37 mi49 min NW 8.9 G 9.9 22°F 40°F1024.8 hPa
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 39 mi49 min NNW 9.9 G 16 27°F 37°F1024.5 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 40 mi55 min N 2.9 G 4.1 21°F 39°F1025.1 hPa
PVDR1 40 mi49 min NW 4.1 G 7 20°F 1025.2 hPa10°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 41 mi49 min NNE 6 G 7 20°F 44°F1024.9 hPa
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 49 mi47 min NW 18 G 21 25°F 47°F3 ft1023.7 hPa (+0.9)

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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N6
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA7 mi42 minWNW 810.00 miFair18°F6°F62%1024.7 hPa
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA16 mi44 minNNW 910.00 miFair0°F0°F%1024.4 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA17 mi44 minN 010.00 miFair14°F12°F95%1024.9 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA19 mi45 minW 410.00 miFair18°F8°F65%1024.9 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA20 mi41 minWNW 510.00 miFair21°F7°F54%1024 hPa

Wind History from FMH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW13
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W16W17W12NW6W6NW6NW10W10NW8
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NW6NW6NW6NW4NW4NW7W7NW6NW6NW7
1 day agoSW4SW4SW4W5W3CalmW3CalmNE5CalmCalmN4N4N4NW6NW8W7W8W10
G16
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G18
2 days agoNW4NW8NW9
G14
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NW6
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W10W9W10
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W6W13
G19
W14W9
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G17
W9W9W8W6W5W3NW4NW3

Tide / Current Tables for Chappaquoit Point, West Falmouth Harbor, Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts
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Chappaquoit Point
Click for Map
Sun -- 06:12 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:03 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:06 AM EST     4.24 feet High Tide
Sun -- 12:49 PM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:09 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:13 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:22 PM EST     3.53 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.10.10.61.22.133.94.243.11.80.70.1-00.20.61.32.233.53.42.71.60.5

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:32 AM EST     0.11 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:42 AM EST     4.05 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 06:12 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:04 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:47 AM EST     -0.12 knots Slack
Sun -- 11:39 AM EST     -4.50 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 02:55 PM EST     0.03 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:09 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:13 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:09 PM EST     4.25 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 09:24 PM EST     -0.21 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-4.1-3.5-2.223.43.943.72.7-1.5-3.5-4.4-4.5-4-2.90.83.144.24.13.52-2.5-3.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.