Wednesday, June28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Falmouth, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:10AMSunset 8:23PM Wednesday June 28, 2017 3:14 PM EDT (19:14 UTC) Moonrise 10:20AMMoonset 11:47PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ234 Buzzards Bay- 116 Pm Edt Wed Jun 28 2017
This afternoon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 116 Pm Edt Wed Jun 28 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pressure slides south of new england this afternoon and tonight. A warm front moves across central new england Thu with increasing sw winds across the waters. This results in a prolong period of ssw winds across the waters into the weekend along with the risk of showers and Thunderstorms Thu night and again Sunday. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Falmouth, MA
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location: 41.64, -70.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 281746
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
146 pm edt Wed jun 28 2017

Synopsis
Other than an isolated shower or thunderstorm across northern
massachusetts this afternoon, high pressure south of new england
will provide mainly dry weather along with temperatures
slightly cooler than normal. Thursday will be our transition day
as a warm front moves across the area with the risk of showers
and thunderstorms Thu night. Summer heat and humidity arrives
fri and continues into the weekend. A cold front likely breaks
the heat and humidity later Sunday and will be accompanied by
thunderstorms. Not as warm or humid early next week including
the fourth of july holiday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
945 am update...

current forecast on track. Expect sct-bkn CU developing with
core of cold pool overhead. Still can't rule out an isold
shower t-storm across northern ma this afternoon given marginal
instability and ki increasing to near 30 along with approaching
left exit region of upper jet.

Previous discussion...

the morning hours will feature plenty of sunshine and temps
rising from the 50s into the 60s. However scattered to broken
cu scu clouds will develop this afternoon given the cyclonic
flow and cold temps aloft (-20c at 500 mb). However with mean
trough axis offshore column becomes fairly dry. This will limit
any potential shower t-storm to isolated areal coverage. Thus
expecting mainly a dry day ahead. However can t rule out an
isolated shower or thunderstorm across northern ma given
proximity to cold pool aloft and higher terrain of worcester
county. In addition lfq of upper level jet streak tracks from ny
state into northern ma. This will enhance forcing for ascent.

Again, any shower t-storm development will hinge on available
moisture, which appears limited and will confine areal coverage
to isolated.

Otherwise expecting a mainly dry weather with comfortable
temperatures of 75-80 and dew pts falling into the 40s in response
to deepening blyr up to 750 mb. These high temperatures will average
a few degs cooler than normal. More of a sep airmass than late
june.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Thursday
Tonight...

rising heights and mid level flow transitioning to anticyclonic will
provide dry weather. High pressure south of new england results in
light west winds. This combined with mostly clear skies and a dry
airmass will yield another cool night with lows in the 50s. Thus
have based mins on the cooler MOS temps.

Thursday...

this will be our transition day as a warm front lifts across central
new england. Not expecting much if any rain here in southern new
england, mainly just an increase in clouds with the greatest risk of
any light rain focused across northern ma. Increasing pressure
gradient will result in ssw winds increasing especially across ri
and eastern ma later in the day. Highs will climb into the upper 70s
and low 80s.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
Highlights...

* hot and humid conditions return Friday into Sunday
* increasing risk for scatter showers thunder Thursday pm into Sunday
* cooler and less humid Monday and Tuesday
pattern details...

overall the deterministic models and their ensemble means have a
fair handing on the evolution of the synoptic pattern for the
period. However, there still remains the timing and strength
difference with each shortwave. Beginning on Friday, quasi-zonal
flow aloft as a surface warm front pushes through the region. The
upper level pattern become more amplified as noted the previous
days. This will result in a deeper trough over the northern plains,
and thus a building of the sub-tropical ridge over the east coast.

This ridge stalls an approaching cold front for the weekend before
pushing through on Sunday. Pattern change aloft for early next week
as the region is more in the broad trough keeping heat and humidity
at bay. Overall, trended towards a blend in the guidance unless
otherwise noted below.

Details...

Thursday night...

warm front will be north of the region by Thursday night. Any
convection that does develop will ride along the mid-level flow
which is parallel with the front. Higher theta-e will pool into the
region as 925mb LLJ begins to develop increase. While there is some
slight height rises overnight, LLJ may provide enough lift within
the warm sector will help trigger showers or thunderstorms. Current
guidance is indicating the bulk of the action will remain north of
southern new england. However, with increasing moisture transport in
the mid-levels combined with higher k, 30-40 kts of bulk shear and
lapse rates near 6c km, cannot rule out new convection refiring
along the southern edge of this system. Best location to see any
precip will be north of the pike, ESP north of route 2.

Aside from precip chances, increasing cloud cover and dewpoints will
limit cooling during the overnight hours. Low temps will remain in
the mid to upper 60s.

Friday into Sunday...

heat and humidity will filter into the southern new england during
this time period. Depending on how Thursday pm goes, it may have
impacts to the convection potential on Friday. Surface high pressure
well offshore will put southern new england in southwest flow
resulting in increasing low level moisture. Plenty of heating with
cape values over 1000 j kg with some deep layer moisture per k
values. Appear scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely
especially across the western half of the region. However the
potential is limited as mid-level heights rising through the day.

This will limit storms from becoming widespread.

Building subtropical ridge will keep the first half of Saturday dry.

Southwest flow will continue across the region as pwat values near 2
std above normal. LLJ will begin to strengthen as great lakes trough
begins to approach the region. Surface trough will move through
upstate ny towards southern new england later in the day. This
trough may be a trigger for a few strong storms. One issue is the
850 mb temps which will be near 17c. This could be a potential cap
which could keep most of the area. Something to watch over the next
few days.

Subtropical ridge will push eastward by Sunday as cold front
approaches from the west. Plenty of instability to work with as
shear values increase to 30-40 kts. Anticipate scattered showers and
thunderstorms, with the potential for a few strong storms. Still
timing issues with the frontal passage so confidence is low.

Temperatures in this period will be quiet warm compared to the past
week. Expect high temps on Friday and Saturday in the upper 80s to
low 90s. Cooling temps aloft on Sunday will keep high temps in the
mid 80s. Sultry dewpoints reaching near 70f could result in heat
headlines on Saturday.

Monday into Tuesday...

upper level trough will move over the northeast by early next week.

This will limit the heat and humidity. Current guidance shows
seasonable temps with highs in the low to mid 80s. Northwest flow
takes hold bringing in drier air in the mid-levels. Cannot rule out
an isolated shower but appears that the overall period may be dry.

Aviation 18z Wednesday through Monday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday night ... High confidence.

Through 00z...VFR with sct-bkn CIGS 050-070. Low risk for an
isold shower or t-storm across northern ma.

Tonight...VFR. Light winds.

Thursday...VFR. Low risk for a few afternoon showers north of
the mass pike. Increasing SW winds with gusts to 20-30 kt
developing, strongest in the coastal plain.

Thursday night... MainlyVFR. But a few showers t-storms
expected to move through with brief lower conditions. Gusty sw
winds coastal plain in the evening.

Kbos terminal... High confidence.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence.

Outlook Friday through Sunday ...

Friday into Sunday... Moderate confidence. Patchy early morning
fog each day. Otherwise mainlyVFR, except local ifr in possible
strong thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening
hours through the period. Southwest winds through the period
with gusts near 20 kts.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday ... High confidence.

Today...

light wnw winds this morning increasing to 15-20 kt this afternoon,
strongest winds near shore. Good vsby and dry weather.

Tonight...

high pressure south of new england yields light wnw winds along with
dry weather and good vsby.

Thursday...

warm front lifts across central new england. This results in winds
becoming ssw and may increase up to 25 kt late in the day across the
near shore waters of ri and southeast ma. May need a small craft
advisory.

Outlook Thursday night through Sunday ...

Thursday night into Friday... Small craft advisories will likely
be needed. Increasing SW winds with gusts to 25+ kt likely,
especially over nearshore waters. Building seas may reach 6 to 8
ft.

Saturday into Sunday... Sw winds continue, mainly 20 kts with
lingering seas. Scattered thunderstorms, some with reduced
visibilities and strong gusty winds especially on Sunday.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Nocera dunten
near term... Kjc nocera
short term... Nocera
long term... Dunten
aviation... Kjc dunten
marine... Nocera dunten


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 8 mi44 min 69°F 69°F1018 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 8 mi89 min 4.1 71°F 1018 hPa57°F
44090 22 mi40 min 65°F1 ft
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 26 mi74 min SW 16 G 17 64°F 1018.4 hPa (+0.5)
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 27 mi44 min 73°F 71°F1018.3 hPa
FRXM3 28 mi44 min 74°F 50°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 28 mi44 min WNW 13 G 18 74°F 1017 hPa
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 29 mi84 min 67°F1 ft1017.2 hPa (+0.3)
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 36 mi44 min NW 5.1 G 11 77°F 1017.7 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 36 mi89 min NNW 5.1 77°F 1017 hPa51°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 37 mi44 min WNW 14 G 18 73°F 72°F1017.7 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 37 mi44 min WNW 8.9 G 16 74°F 65°F1017.8 hPa
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 39 mi44 min W 8.9 G 17 69°F 69°F1018.3 hPa
PVDR1 40 mi44 min WNW 11 G 17 75°F 1017.4 hPa46°F
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 40 mi44 min W 13 G 17 75°F 67°F1018 hPa
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 41 mi44 min NNW 14 G 19 76°F 68°F1016.9 hPa
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 49 mi84 min W 5.8 G 5.8 64°F 62°F1 ft1016.5 hPa (+0.3)

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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SW18
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S14
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N3
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA7 mi19 minSW 16 G 2210.00 miFair73°F55°F53%1018.3 hPa
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA16 mi21 minWSW 14 G 2110.00 miFair73°F54°F51%1018.3 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA17 mi21 minWNW 8 G 2410.00 miPartly Cloudy75°F48°F39%1017.3 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA19 mi22 minW 11 G 1810.00 miA Few Clouds77°F46°F35%1017.6 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA20 mi18 minSW 1410.00 miPartly Cloudy75°F55°F52%1017.1 hPa

Wind History from FMH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW19
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S10SW7SW12NW5W6NW6NW5NW5CalmW3W7W9W10W11
G17
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1 day agoSW14SW15
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SW11SW7SW7SW7SW6W5W6CalmSE5CalmCalmS5SW6S7--S9SW9S11SW17
2 days agoSW12
G18
SW14SW12SW12
G18
W13SW10SW6SW10SW9W4CalmNW3CalmNW4W4W5NW8NW5
G13
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NW9W5
G13
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G14
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Tide / Current Tables for Chappaquoit Point, West Falmouth Harbor, Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts
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Chappaquoit Point
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Wed -- 05:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 05:45 AM EDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:20 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:17 PM EDT     4.57 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:39 PM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:47 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.84.22.91.60.5-0-0.10.10.61.42.73.94.54.43.42.10.90.30.20.40.81.52.53.5

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:08 AM EDT     -0.21 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:09 AM EDT     -4.97 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:21 AM EDT     0.03 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:19 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:30 AM EDT     4.71 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 01:58 PM EDT     -0.03 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:43 PM EDT     -4.57 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:49 PM EDT     0.20 knots Slack
Wed -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:47 PM EDT     4.27 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 11:47 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.31.2-3.1-4.5-5-4.7-3.8-22.74.14.64.64.23.2-0.5-3.4-4.4-4.5-4-2.81.33.34.14.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.