Sunday, May20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Falmouth, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 5:17AMSunset 8:03PM Sunday May 20, 2018 1:48 PM EDT (17:48 UTC) Moonrise 10:29AMMoonset 12:23AM Illumination 33% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ234 Buzzards Bay- 116 Pm Edt Sun May 20 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm edt this evening...
This afternoon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Areas of fog. Isolated showers. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Mon..N winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, diminishing to around 5 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Tue night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of showers.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 116 Pm Edt Sun May 20 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A cold front will cross the waters late this afternoon and evening. Another round of showers likely later today, and possibly a few rumbles of Thunder. Fair weather high pres will bring dry weather across the waters Mon through most of Tue. Rain chances increase Tue night into Wed morning as low pres passes overhead. Dry weather returns Wed and Thu as another high pres begins building E over new england. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Falmouth, MA
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location: 41.64, -70.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 201724
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
124 pm edt Sun may 20 2018

Synopsis
A warm front warm front lifts north through the region tonight,
allowing a warm and humid airmass to overspread the area. A
cold front triggers scattered showers with brief heavy rainfall
and isolated thunder this afternoon. Drier this evening into
Monday with passing showers during the mid-week. Cooler, drier
air follows for Thursday into Saturday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
10am update...

a few shra continue to develop along the convergence boundary of
incoming LLJ from the sw. Meanwhile a combination of msas and
sfc obs suggest the cold front is just now entering central vt
and E ny. The combination of the LLJ along with an implied
slackening in the mass fields just E of the front suggest a weak
pre-frontal trof is already developing. This marks the E edge of
the band of shra across N ny and vt.

Noting some clearing across portions of N ma, particularly ne,
which has translated into more rapid temp increases as well as
steepening column and increasing cape. Some modest convection is
likely to fire in-situ here, so we will have to monitor this
through mid day early afternoon. The lingering clouds to the s
should limit the destabilization process so what forms to the n
is likely to diminish as it pushes into SE ma and S ri. This is
in good agreement with latest mesoscale guidance.

Previous discussion...

low clouds and fog will be prevalent this morning. Widespread
showers early this morning across ri and SE ma will move
offshore by mid morning.

Clouds will be key to the realized weather later this afternoon.

A cold front will move through this afternoon and evening.

Instability will be very dependent upon the amount of sunshine.

Forecast CAPE values in some of the high resolution guidance of
500-1,000 j kg persist. The longer the clouds linger, the lower
the CAPE values will likely be, and the fewer thunderstorms
would result. In either case, not expecting severe weather
because many other ingredients are missing.

Precipitable water values of 1.50-1.75 inches will mean locally
heavy rainfall is possible, too. Still looks like the window for
the greatest risk for showers, after daybreak, will be between
10 am and 5 pm.

Modest southwest winds will push warmer and more humid air into
our region. This should make for a more summer-like feel today.

High temperatures generally in the 70s away from the coasts,
perhaps a little higher where sunshine breaks out for a while.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Monday
High pressure building into the great lakes tonight and Monday
will send drier weather our way. Mainly clear skies will permit
the sunshine to boost temperatures well into the 70s Monday away
from the immediate coast. Local seabreezes possible. Not nearly
as humid as today, with comfortable dewpoints mainly in the
40s.

Long term Monday night through Saturday
Highlights...

* passing showers Tuesday and Wednesday
* potential for dry weather but below avg temps for the end of
this week
* potential for wet weather memorial day weekend
details...

Monday night... High confidence.

Dry weather will prevail as high pressure slides into the gulf
of mexico. Approaching warm front to the south will help
increase dewpoints and leave temperatures cool but mild. Lows in
the mid 50s.

Tuesday into Wednesday... Moderate confidence.

Bermuda high pressure remains while upper level trough
continues over the northeast canada. This puts the region in a
more zonal pattern. Weak wave moving through the flow will slide
along a stalled front south of southern new england. This could
bring showers across the area and keep the region on the cool
side of the front. Still a spread on how far north precip will
get, but right now highest confidence is south of the pike.

Behind this disturbance, an approaching cold front will move in
from the northwest. This front is associated with the upper
level trough digging into the northeast. Could see some showers
along this front but moisture is a bit marginal. Models are even
hinting as some sb cape, so if showers develop cannot rule out
a rumble of thunder. Temperatures will be more seasonable with
highs in the mid 70s.

Thursday into Saturday... Moderate confidence.

Drier but breezy conditions looks to be in store for the end of
the week due to a northwest flow pattern. Lots of dry air will
dominate on Thursday, but appears that a weak disturbance will
move through the area on Friday. For now trended the
temperatures below avg and kept with a dry forecast.

Sunday and beyond... Moderate confidence.

Digging trough over the great lakes will move into the
northeast, resulting southwest flow aloft. Good moisture plume
moving up from the gulf could result in wet weather Sunday into
Monday. Still a lot of uncertainty in regards to the weekend so
stay tuned.

Aviation 17z Sunday through Thursday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Monday ...

through 03z... Moderate confidence.

MainlyVFR north of a line from hvn-pvd-ghg, but with a risk for
shra tsra between 19z-23z from n-s as they develop. Ifr lifr s
of this line lingers through the evening, with a risk for a spot
shower as the line of shra tsra dissipates. Winds shift to the w
then NW through the evening.

Overnight into tomorrow... High confidence.

Winds continue to shift to the NW through the early am hours
this will allow for clearing of most clouds into the daylight
hours Monday.VFR dominates, except maybe ack where lingering
fog is possible during the morning.

Tomorrow night... High confidence.

MainlyVFR. Light W winds.

Kbos terminal... Moderate confidence in taf, at issue is the
exact timing for a shra tsra risk mainly 19z through 21z.

Improvement thereafter.

Kbdl terminal... Moderate confidence in taf.

Outlook Monday night through Thursday ... Moderate confidence.

Monday night:VFR.

Tuesday:VFR. Chance shra.

Tuesday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
shra.

Wednesday:VFR. Slight chance shra.

Wednesday night through Thursday:VFR.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Monday ... Moderate confidence.

Areas of fog will lead to restricted visibility, less than 1 nm
at times. Increasing SW winds ahead of a cold front today. Gusts
up to 25-30 kt. Showers with locally heavy rain this afternoon
and early evening. Winds become northerly behind a cold front
tonight and quickly diminish. Rough seas will take a little
longer to subside, especially across the outer coastal waters.

Outlook Monday night through Thursday ... Moderate confidence.

Monday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.

Tuesday through Tuesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Chance of
rain showers.

Wednesday: winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain
showers.

Wednesday night through Thursday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas
locally approaching 5 ft.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for
anz232>234-250.

Small craft advisory until 3 pm edt this afternoon for anz231.

Small craft advisory until midnight edt tonight for anz236.

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Monday for anz235-237-254.

Small craft advisory until 1 pm edt Monday for anz255-256.

Synopsis... Belk dunten
near term... Belk doody
short term... Belk
long term... Dunten
aviation... Belk doody
marine... Belk dunten


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 8 mi49 min 56°F 55°F1013.5 hPa (-1.0)
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 8 mi64 min 4.1 58°F 1014 hPa58°F
44090 22 mi49 min 53°F3 ft
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 26 mi49 min SW 21 G 24 55°F 1013.5 hPa (-1.1)
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 27 mi49 min 67°F 55°F1012.6 hPa (-1.3)
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 28 mi49 min SSW 12 G 15 65°F 1012 hPa (-1.2)
FRXM3 28 mi49 min 67°F 64°F
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 29 mi59 min SW 19 G 23 55°F 52°F2 ft1013 hPa (-1.4)55°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 36 mi49 min SSW 5.1 G 11 63°F 1012.2 hPa (-1.3)
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 36 mi64 min SSW 6 63°F 993 hPa62°F
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 37 mi49 min SSW 12 G 16 56°F 52°F1012.6 hPa (-1.3)
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 37 mi49 min S 15 G 17 59°F 56°F1011.8 hPa (-1.3)
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 39 mi49 min SW 12 G 22 58°F 56°F1013.8 hPa (-1.2)
PVDR1 40 mi49 min SW 14 G 17 72°F 1011.9 hPa (-1.2)67°F
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 40 mi49 min W 2.9 G 14 65°F 55°F1012.4 hPa (-1.4)
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 41 mi49 min WSW 9.9 G 17 74°F 54°F1011.4 hPa (-1.1)
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 48 mi59 min SSW 18 G 19 54°F 3 ft1010.9 hPa (-0.8)54°F
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 49 mi59 min SW 9.7 G 12 62°F 54°F2 ft1010.4 hPa (-1.4)60°F

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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E8
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NE20
G25
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NE9
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W3
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G28
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G26
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NE20
G25
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G24

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA7 mi54 minSW 21 G 275.00 miFog/Mist and Breezy61°F59°F94%1013.2 hPa
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA16 mi61 minSW 16 G 221.75 miFog/Mist59°F57°F96%1013.5 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA17 mi56 minSW 11 G 1810.00 miOvercast65°F63°F93%1012.2 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA19 mi57 minSW 1310.00 miOvercast72°F64°F79%1011.7 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA20 mi53 minSW 22 G 297.00 miOvercast and Breezy63°F60°F90%1012.2 hPa

Wind History from FMH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--E8E8SE7SE8SE10SE10S10S10SW7SW15
G20
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SW11SW18
G27
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SW16SW18
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G28
1 day agoNE16
G24
NE13
G22
NE15
G22
NE10NE14
G19
NE11NE8NE7E7E5NE6NE6NE7NE8E6NE7NE8NE8E5E13E11E8
G13
E9E7
2 days ago4S4SW4SW5SW4W5W4SW5W4SW4W3SW5CalmN4NE13
G22
NE23NE19
G28
NE21
G27
NE17
G26
NE21
G29
NE20
G29
NE18
G27
NE19
G27
NE17
G25

Tide / Current Tables for Chappaquoit Point, West Falmouth Harbor, Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts
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Chappaquoit Point
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Sun -- 12:18 AM EDT     4.80 feet High Tide
Sun -- 12:22 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:22 AM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:29 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:55 PM EDT     4.21 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:07 PM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.84.63.72.41.20.40.10.10.30.81.72.93.94.23.72.71.40.50.20.30.61.11.92.9

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:23 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 01:39 AM EDT     -0.03 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:48 AM EDT     -4.80 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 05:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:54 AM EDT     0.02 knots Slack
Sun -- 10:29 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:00 AM EDT     4.59 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 02:35 PM EDT     -0.02 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:24 PM EDT     -4.43 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 08:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:26 PM EDT     0.19 knots Slack
Sun -- 11:21 PM EDT     4.12 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.62.4-1.8-3.6-4.6-4.8-4.3-3.113.34.34.64.33.72.4-2-3.7-4.4-4.3-3.6-22.33.64.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.