Wednesday, October18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fort Jones, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:27AMSunset 6:24PM Wednesday October 18, 2017 9:53 AM PDT (16:53 UTC) Moonrise 5:11AMMoonset 5:19PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ330 1126 Pm Pdt Fri Aug 9 2013
.thunderstorms over the waters... Thunderstorms over the waters have weakened but isolated storms will continue overnight. Mariners can expect gusty and erratic winds with the storms along with frequent lightning. If caught on the open water stay below deck if possible...keep away from ungrounded metal objects. Lat...lon 4397 12411 4396 12411 4400 12413 4284 12455 4242 12440 4225 12441 4205 12428 4184 12422 4181 12580 4198 12579 4220 12589 4370 12576 4386 12565 4399 12562 4403 12414
PZZ300 905 Am Pdt Wed Oct 18 2017
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..South winds will increase today across the waters ahead of a strong cold front. Gales are expected from cape blanco northward tonight with warning level seas most other places. Long period and large northwest swells build into the waters late Thursday into Friday behind the front, creating very high and steep seas, and dangerous surf and bar conditions. Another round of potentially strong south winds arrives Friday night along a warm front.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fort Jones, CA
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location: 41.67, -122.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 181615
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
915 am pdt Wed oct 18 2017

Short term A strong incoming front will impact the area
beginning late tonight through Thursday followed by a colder
pattern with showers and mountain snow on Friday.

The impacts expected from this storm include:
*rain impacts: ponding on roadways, debris flows or mud slides
possible near recent burn scars near the coast and in western
siskiyou county on Thursday.

*slippery, snow-covered roads over the higher passes in the
cascades near crater lake and diamond lake on Friday. Light snow
on highway 140 near lake of the woods.

*travel may become difficult for high profile vehicles on
Thursday due to strong southerly winds along the coastal
headlands, shasta valley, and east of the cascades.

*isolated trees may fall near burn scars due to high winds.

*dangerous conditions for beach goers with high surf conditions
along the coast late Thursday afternoon through Friday.

*dangerous seas developing in the coastal waters tonight through
Thursday and continuing on Friday. Strong gale force winds will
accompany these seas tonight and Thursday morning.

Today is expected to be the last dry day for the week. Models are
on track showing a strong front moving towards the area tonight
and Thursday morning then moving inland late Thursday through
Thursday night. Rainfall is expected to begin along the coast
tonight into Thursday morning, becoming heavy Thursday afternoon
and evening. Rain will spread inland across areas from the
cascades west during the day Thursday then across areas east of
the cascades Thursday evening and night. Strong winds are expected
ahead of and with the frontal passage. South winds will pick up
over the mountains and along the coast tonight. South winds will
peak along the coast Thursday morning with gusts of 35 to 45 mph
likely for coastal locations with higher gusts of up to 60 mph
near CAPE blanco. Inland areas will see south winds peak Thursday
afternoon into Thursday evening. South winds are expected to gust
to around 40 to 50 mph in many valleys east of the cascades and in
the southern shasta valley on Thursday with higher gusts of 60
mph possible in portions of lake county and over the warner
mountains in eastern modoc county. Of note, these strong winds
over eastern areas will develop in advance of the precipitation
Thursday afternoon with rain moving into the shasta valley and
areas east of the cascades late Thursday afternoon into Thursday
evening.These winds will lower Thursday night behind the frontal
passage. Behind this front widespread to numerous showers are
expected Thursday night into Friday along with snow levels
lowering to 4000 to 5000 feet. This will will bring light to
moderate snow to the passes in the cascades Thursday night through
Friday afternoon.

Expect only a break in the active pattern Friday evening then a
strong and moist warm will spread precipitation into the area
Friday night and Saturday. This next system will bring moderate
to locally heavy rain from the cascades west with light to
moderate precipitation east of the cascades and in northern
california. Snow levels are expected to rise to above pass
levels on Saturday. Another period of strong winds is possible
with this warm front on Saturday. The strong winds will be mainly
over the mountains although gusty winds are likely over much of
the area on Saturday.

Aviation 18 12z TAF cycle... In the coastal waters MVFR conditions
are widespread right up to the coast down to port CAPE blanco.

Orford. Expect little change in coverage throughout the day. From
port orford south MVFR conditions are farther offshore beyond 10nm
from shore. Inland, low clouds and MVFR CIGS extends into NW douglas
county. Ifr conditions at rbg appear to be isolated event and do not
show up on satellite imagery. Rbg should improve toVFR by 18z at
the latest. Elsewhere,VFR is expected.

The next front will bring more clouds to the area. Aside from the
coast, conditions inland are expected to remainVFR until late
tonight with local MVFR inland. Fb

Marine Updated 300 am pdt Wednesday 18 october 2017... South winds
will increase today across the waters ahead of a strong cold front.

Confidence has increased to high for gales from CAPE blanco
northward tonight with warning level seas most other places.

Long period and large northwest swells (around 20 feet at 17
seconds) build into the waters late Thursday into Friday behind the
front, creating dangerous surf and bar conditions. The tail end of
the cold front is expected to move back northward as a warm front,
and winds are expected to increase again Friday night and Saturday
with guidance showing gale force winds again. Sk fb

Prev discussion issued 411 am pdt Wed oct 18 2017
discussion... Timing for impacts will be Wednesday night through
Friday...

*impacts: ponding on roadways, debris flows near burn scars near
the coast and western siskiyou county.

*slippery, snow-covered roads over the higher passes in the
cascades near crater lake and diamond lake. Light snow on highway
140 near lake of the woods.

*travel may become difficult for high profile vehicles due to
strong southerly winds along the coastal headlands, shasta
valley, and east of the cascades.

*isolated trees may fall near burn scars due to high winds.

Wednesday will be the last relatively dry day across southern
oregon and northern california with temperatures slightly above
normal before the first strong front of the season arrives across
the pacific northwest Wednesday night.

This frontal system is expected to be stronger than what is
typical for this time of year, and model guidance has come into
better agreement regarding the details of this system. The biggest
concerns will be the strong winds and moderate to heavy rain
across the area.

Precipitation totals will be significant, especially at the
coast. Rain rates will be less than a quarter of an inch an hour,
but some coastal areas could see 1.5 inches in 6 hours and some
inland areas will get 1 inch in 6 hours. Rivers are still low and
soils are dry from the summer, but a few impacts could still be
felt, particularly for coastal rivers. This will be mainly in the
form of debris flows and flash flooding for the chetco bar
and eclipse complex burn scar areas. Have issued a flash flood
watch for those two areas (details at ffamfr). This does not
include any nearby cities.

Additionally, there have been some recent issues with rock falls
along highway 138 between mile post 45 and and 53 in douglas
county associated with the umpqua north wildfire complex. Rain
rates in that area will be about fourth tenths of an inch in 6
hours, which is well below our traditional guidance for issuing
any flash flood products. That being said, the aforementioned
issues could create travel concerns. Thus, will allow the day
shift to coordinate with odot to see if a flash flood watch would
be beneficial there.

This will be one of the first wind events in our forecast area
for the season. The strongest winds will occur at the coast
Wednesday night into Thursday with shasta valley and east side
winds ramping up Thursday into Friday morning. This could create
some travel difficulties, especially for high profile vehicles.

There may be some tree falls due to the winds, particularly near
recent burn scars. The evening shift has issued a high wind watch,
and wind advisory (npwmfr) for areas east of the cascades.

Snow levels will start off above 8000 feet on Thursday and will
drop to 4000 to 4500 feet by Friday evening as the precipitation
comes to an end. Some of the higher passes could see some moderate
snow, particularly near crater lake and diamond lake; but lower
passes like highway 140 near lake of the woods will only see light
snow. Siskiyou summit may see a few flurries on Friday, but it is
more likely that the precipitation will end before it changes
over to snow. Confidence is not high enough quite yet for snow
amounts, so will allow the day shift to determine if any winter
products are needed.

The long wave upper trough will move onshore Friday, and short
waves will continue to move through the trough. This will support
widespread shower activity into Friday. The offshore upper level
ridge will amplify as it approaches the coast, and this will cause
the front to lift back north as a strong and quite wet warm front
Saturday, followed by a weaker trailing cold front Saturday night
into Sunday.

The offshore ridge will be quite strong by this time just off the
coast. Low level flow will turn easterly Sunday night into Monday,
so the area will dry out quickly at that time. Easterly flow will
weaken Monday into Tuesday, but it will remain dry with no
incoming systems initially. A weak front may bring some
precipitation to the north coast and umpqua basin Wednesday.

-schaaf
long period and large northwest swells (around 20 feet at 17
seconds) build into the waters late Thursday into Friday behind the
front, creating dangerous surf and bar conditions. The tail end of
the cold front is expected to move back northward as a warm front,
and winds are expected to increase again Friday night and Saturday
with guidance showing gale force winds again. Sk fb
hydrology... Updated 400 pm pdt Tuesday 17 october 2017... There
will be some hydrologic concerns with the Wednesday night into
Friday system. Currently, soils are dry and rivers are low, but
there will be enough rain to create possible debris flows near
recent burn scars. The river levels will not be an issue itself,
but the debris may obstruct river flows at times, creating
elevated river levels upstream of the block at first, then
downstream of the block if and when it breaks free. If you come
across a flooded road, find an alternate route. Remember to turn
around, don't drown.

Debris floating down the river combined with high surf may create
dangerous bar conditions near the port of brookings. -schaaf

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... Wind advisory from 11 am to 11 pm pdt Thursday for orz029>031.

High wind watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
for orz030-031.

Flash flood watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
for orz022-024.

High surf advisory from 5 pm Thursday to 11 pm pdt Friday for
orz021-022.

Ca... Wind advisory from 11 am to 11 pm pdt Thursday for caz084-085.

High wind watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
for caz085.

Flash flood watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
for caz080.

Wind advisory from 8 am to 8 pm pdt Thursday for caz081.

Pacific coastal waters... Small craft advisory from 5 pm this afternoon to 11 am pdt
Thursday for pzz356-376.

Hazardous seas warning from 11 pm this evening to 11 pm pdt
Friday for pzz356-376.

Small craft advisory until 11 pm pdt this evening for pzz350.

Gale warning from 11 pm this evening to 11 am pdt Thursday for
pzz350-370.

Hazardous seas warning from 5 pm this afternoon to 11 pm pdt
Friday for pzz350-370.

Small craft advisory until 11 am pdt Thursday for pzz370.

Cc cc cc


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 72 mi54 min ESE 1.9 G 2.9 45°F 51°F1018.5 hPa (+0.0)
46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA 83 mi64 min Calm G 1.9 50°F 51°F7 ft1017.9 hPa (-0.4)
HBYC1 - 9418767 - North Spit, CA 96 mi78 min SE 2.9 G 4.1 47°F 52°F1019.1 hPa

Wind History for Crescent City, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Montague Siskiyou County Airport, CA21 mi61 minN 010.00 miFair40°F26°F58%1021.6 hPa

Wind History from SIY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3CalmS4Calm4NW3E43W3CalmN3NE4CalmE4CalmSW3E3CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalm3334S5S3S4SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmNE3NE5CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmSW63CalmCalmS3CalmCalmE3NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Crescent City, California
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Crescent City
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:08 AM PDT     0.77 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:15 AM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:32 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:22 AM PDT     7.08 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:43 PM PDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:24 PM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:30 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:53 PM PDT     6.40 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
6.15.23.82.41.30.81.123.55.16.376.96.14.631.50.50.412.23.75.16.1

Tide / Current Tables for Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon
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Brookings
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:12 AM PDT     0.77 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:16 AM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:33 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:23 AM PDT     7.08 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:47 PM PDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:24 PM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:30 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:54 PM PDT     6.40 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
6.15.23.82.41.30.8123.456.376.96.14.731.60.60.40.92.13.65.16.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.