Friday, February23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fort Jones, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 5:55PM Friday February 23, 2018 12:38 PM PST (20:38 UTC) Moonrise 11:34AMMoonset 1:15AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ330 1126 Pm Pdt Fri Aug 9 2013
.thunderstorms over the waters... Thunderstorms over the waters have weakened but isolated storms will continue overnight. Mariners can expect gusty and erratic winds with the storms along with frequent lightning. If caught on the open water stay below deck if possible...keep away from ungrounded metal objects. Lat...lon 4397 12411 4396 12411 4400 12413 4284 12455 4242 12440 4225 12441 4205 12428 4184 12422 4181 12580 4198 12579 4220 12589 4370 12576 4386 12565 4399 12562 4403 12414
PZZ300 857 Am Pst Fri Feb 23 2018
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..North winds will diminish this morning as high pressure builds offshore, but seas will remain steep to very steep through Saturday. Winds will shift to southerly this afternoon, then a weak front will move onshore this evening, bringing increased west winds and a steep northwest swell. A stronger front will move onshore early Sunday, and it will bring steep, heavy northwest swell with it. Even heavier swell will move in Monday. Yet another weak front will approach the area Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fort Jones, CA
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location: 41.67, -122.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 231713
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
913 am pst Fri feb 23 2018

Discussion A cold start to the morning for many locations. The
low at medford was 20 degrees which was not far from the record
low of 19 degrees set back in 1920. We'll have a break in the
weather today with dry conditions expected into early this
evening. Low clouds will linger for most, if not the whole morning
in the umpqua basin and portions of the coquille basin. Elsewhere
skies will be clear to mostly clear. The latest guidance is
slower with the arrival if the next system later this evening and
tonight. Therefore have made adjustments to the forecast today
and removed pops over the northwest part of the area.

We'll be taking a closer look at the impacts for tonight. As
previously mentioned the general consensus is for a later arrival
of the next front tonight and lighter precipitation amounts.

These two factors could lessen the snowfall impacts.

Of bigger concern could be Sunday night into Monday morning.

Another upper trough will drop down from the northwest and this
one will have more over water trajectory which typically means more
available moisture. This one could bring a significant amount of
snow to the cascades and siskiyous. Snow levels could start out
between 2000 and 3000 feet Sunday evening, then lowering between
1000 to 2000 feet Sunday night. -petrucelli

Aviation 23 12z TAF cycle... Precipitation has diminished and
expect mostly clear skies over the west side through this
evening... With the exception of the umpqua basin, which may see some
fog around sunrise. Patchy fog ifr CIGS is possible along the
coast, but winds with a slight offshore component may prevent
conditions from dropping at koth. A weak front tonight will bring
increasing cloud cover with possible MVFR CIGS and showers, with
snow levels below 1000 feet msl. -msc

Marine Updated 500 am pst Friday 23 feb 2018... North winds
will diminish this morning as high pressure builds offshore, but
seas will remain steep to very steep through Saturday. Winds will
shift to southerly this afternoon, then a weak front will move
onshore this evening, bringing increased west winds and a steep
northwest swell. A stronger front will move onshore early Sunday,
and it will bring steep, heavy northwest swell with it. Even heavier
swell will move in Monday. Yet another weak front will approach the
area Tuesday.

Prev discussion issued 501 am pst Fri feb 23 2018
discussion... Late winter impacts continue this week as the
forecast area remains on the eastern periphery on the upper ridge,
keeping snow levels generally between 2000 and 3000 feet, and
bringing in more moisture from the northeast pacific ocean.

The consensus is that the air mass won't get as cold again through
the next week as it is this morning, with the morning balloon
sounding showing 5000 ft temperatures at -9.5c, which is one of
the coldest ever for this date since 1948 (and the very coldest
between 1948 and 2014, but we don't have the records for the past
3 years readily available). Even though the air mass warms some
in the upcoming days, it will still be cold enough to produce some
snow impacts to lower passes on interstate 5 between grants pass
and roseburg and significant impacts on higher mountain passes,
above 2000 feet. For the first in a series of storms, winter
weather advisories continue for areas generally above 2000 feet
from the cascades westward for this evening through Saturday
afternoon. Additionally, a winter storm warning continues for
eastern douglas county. Lastly, highway 97 north of klamath falls may
get a quick 2-3 inches of snow Saturday morning, so we will
consider an advisory for this area on the dayshift.

The upcoming front will bring increasing winds to the mountains and
east side, and we've issued a wind advisory for some areas east of
the cascades, to include highway 31 from valley falls to silver
lake. Some snow will accompany these winds and will result in
blowing snow and reduced visibility. GEFS anomalies suggest 700mb
winds will be in the top 1-3% of wind speeds for this time of year,
so it's worth highlighting, especially since blowing snow could also
have an impact.

A more potent front will move in Sunday, with snow levels starting
out between 2000 and 3000 feet, then falling Sunday night to
somewhere between 1000 and 2000 feet. This will eventually bring
winter travel conditions to all mountain passes and potentially
lower on the tail end of the front Monday morning. We'll be looking
to highlight this in the form of a winter hazard product in the
upcoming shift. Please see the previous long-term discussion that
still
long-term from previous discussion... Monday through next
Thursday... Operational 12z models start to diverge Monday, but the
18z GFS has come more in line with the 12z operational ecmwf. The
ensemble mean for the GFS and ec were very close however, and
leaned towards whatever operational run was closest to the
ensemble mean for that period. Winter continues to make up for
being absent in our lives for december by doting upon us with cold
and low level snow through most of next week.

On Monday the tail end of a system moves through Monday morning,
and unlike today there should be enough clearing and with nearly due
north flow at 700mb, there should be enough clearing to allow
temperature to rise into the mid 40s and melt the previous snow on
sun exposed road and sidewalk surfaces. The upper low digs south
into central ca by Tuesday morning, with the upper level ridge
nudging into the region with weak offshore flow indicating clearing
before early Tuesday morning allowing temperature to drop below
freezing in the west side valleys, and well below freezing on the
east side. The ridge retrogrades and the next, wetter system moves
in late Tuesday afternoon to evening. Although the entire forecast
for the next week looks interesting, Wednesday could be very
interesting with 850 mb temps indicating below -5 c during the warm
conveyor time. However, confidence is not high this far out and will
not stress this period until we get closer. -sven

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... Wind advisory from 10 am to 10 pm pst Saturday for orz029>031.

Winter weather advisory from 10 pm this evening to 4 pm pst
Saturday for orz027-028.

Freeze warning until 10 am pst this morning for orz021-022.

Winter weather advisory from 10 pm this evening to 4 pm pst
Saturday for orz021-023>026.

Winter storm warning from 10 pm this evening to 4 pm pst
Saturday for orz025.

Ca... Wind advisory from 10 am to 10 pm pst Saturday for caz084-085.

Pacific coastal waters... Hazardous seas warning from 4 am to 10 pm pst Saturday for
pzz350-356-370-376.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 10 pm pst Saturday
for pzz350-356-376.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 4 am pst Saturday
for pzz370.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 72 mi56 min NW 2.9 G 5.1 42°F 48°F1032.5 hPa
46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA 83 mi48 min N 5.8 G 7.8 42°F 50°F6 ft1033.1 hPa (+0.0)
HBYC1 - 9418767 - North Spit, CA 96 mi62 min N 14 G 18 40°F 47°F1033.3 hPa

Wind History for Crescent City, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Montague Siskiyou County Airport, CA21 mi45 minVar 310.00 miFair33°F10°F40%1032.4 hPa

Wind History from SIY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN11N17
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N13N8N4CalmNE3NE6NE6N6NE6NE7E4N5N4Calm3
1 day agoCalm4NW7N6N11N12N8N9NE6NE8CalmN8NE6NE7Calm4CalmCalmSW4S3S6CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoS44CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4E4CalmS3CalmCalmS4S3S5S3CalmCalmCalmCalm--3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Crescent City, California
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Crescent City
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:09 AM PST     First Quarter
Fri -- 01:20 AM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:34 AM PST     6.96 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:00 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:39 AM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:47 AM PST     0.88 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:00 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:15 PM PST     4.85 feet High Tide
Fri -- 11:10 PM PST     3.07 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.44.45.46.36.96.96.45.44.12.81.71.10.91.3233.94.54.84.74.33.83.33.1

Tide / Current Tables for Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon
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Brookings
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:09 AM PST     First Quarter
Fri -- 01:22 AM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:35 AM PST     6.96 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:01 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:39 AM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:51 AM PST     0.88 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:00 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:16 PM PST     4.85 feet High Tide
Fri -- 11:14 PM PST     3.07 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.44.35.46.36.96.96.45.54.22.91.81.10.91.222.93.84.54.84.84.43.83.33.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.