Sunday, September23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fort Jones, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 7:06PM Sunday September 23, 2018 4:51 AM PDT (11:51 UTC) Moonrise 5:53PMMoonset 4:24AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ330 1126 Pm Pdt Fri Aug 9 2013
.thunderstorms over the waters... Thunderstorms over the waters have weakened but isolated storms will continue overnight. Mariners can expect gusty and erratic winds with the storms along with frequent lightning. If caught on the open water stay below deck if possible...keep away from ungrounded metal objects. Lat...lon 4397 12411 4396 12411 4400 12413 4284 12455 4242 12440 4225 12441 4205 12428 4184 12422 4181 12580 4198 12579 4220 12589 4370 12576 4386 12565 4399 12562 4403 12414
PZZ300 256 Am Pdt Sun Sep 23 2018
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Gusty northerly winds and steep to very steep seas develop today. Seas will be highest south of cape blanco during Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening with peak winds at gale force. Conditions are expected to improve gradually beginning Wednesday, but fresh swell will continue areas of steep seas into Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fort Jones, CA
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location: 41.67, -122.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 230317
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
817 pm pdt Sat sep 22 2018

Discussion Latest observations are showing temperatures about
10 degrees lower than 24 hours ago, courtesy of a cold front that
moved through the forecast area today. Generally a tenth of an
inch of rain or less has fallen from the umpqua divide northward
and along the coast and coast range. The big winner in the
rainfall category was coastal douglas county with about a quarter
inch observed there. Fire activity, not surprisingly, was
significantly less than yesterday's per satellite heat detections.

Tonight temperatures will trend lower for most locations. Sunday
will feature a slow start to a warming trend and will have much
more sunshine than today. Even with some warming, high temperatures
Sunday are expected to be around 5 degrees below normal. Smoke is
expected to affect areas around the klondike fire and to the
southwest on Sunday as a thermal trough and building ridging bring
deep northerly to northeasterly flow to the forecast area. As the
week progresses, more smoke impacts are expected, primarily to
the south and southwest of the klondike, to include brookings.

Please see the previous discussion below for details on the
upcoming warming and drying trend. -keene

Aviation For the 23 00z tafs... Widespread mid and upper level
clouds, with areas of terrain obscuration, persist over the region
behind a front that has pushed east of the region. Good moisture
availability from earlier showers will bring the potential for areas
along the coast to drop to ifr CIGS vsby later tonight, and cigs
will probably spread into the umpqua basin, bringing krbg to MVFR.

Elsewhere,VFR conditions will continue throughout the TAF period
and expect mostly clear skies by Sunday afternoon. -mm

Marine Updated 200 pm pdt Saturday 22 september 2018... The cold
front has pushed through the area, leaving slightly cooler air and
showers in its wake. Showers are expected to taper off through the
evening. Beginning Sunday, high pressure will build offshore while a
thermal trough develops along the coast. This pattern will remain in
place through at least Tuesday night, producing gusty north winds
and steep to very steep seas across nearly the entire area. Winds
will reach a peak Monday and Tuesday afternoons and evenings, with
gales likely developing south of CAPE blanco. Various model
solutions suggest that conditions will improve gradually beginning
midweek, but confidence is much too low to pin down exactly when
winds and seas will drop below advisory or warning thresholds.

-bpn

Fire weather Updated 215 pm pdt Saturday, 22 september 2018... A
weak cold front is bringing showers mainly north of CAPE blanco
along the coast and from the umpqua divide northward and west
facing slopes of the cascades. Gusty winds are expected ahead of
the front, mostly over the far east side this afternoon into the
evening.

Confidence is high that we will be dealing with dry conditions with
gusty northeast winds (another thermal trough pattern) Sunday into
next Wednesday with moderate to poor overnight recoveries possible
starting Sunday night. The models are now showing 925 mb winds
higher and supportive of gusty northeast winds, and the pressure
gradient is tight which also supports gusty winds. With the
combination of wind and moderate to poor overnight recoveries have
issued a fire weather watch for portions of 619 and 620 for Sunday
night. Humidities continue to decrease Monday into Tuesday, but
winds will also decrease.

Temperatures continue to rise to above 10 degrees above normal by
mid week with humidities in the teens to single digits across much
of the region except for near the coast. -sven

Prev discussion issued 235 pm pdt Sat sep 22 2018
discussion... Current radar is showing some returns over southern
oregon. Although we picked up some precipitation in the umpqua
basin and at the coast, the returns are falling as virga (or not
reaching the ground) for the rogue valley.

This front will pass through this afternoon, and things will begin
to warm up as an area of high pressure builds in and then gets
blocked in by the patterns to the east. This will allow for the
thermal trough to build in. The main concerns will be in the
marine waters and for fire weather concerns in the coastal range
and the kalmiopsis. Both the marine and fire weather discussions
will have more information on those concerns. For the public
forecast, this means that we'll remain dry with above normal
temperatures, and some possible smoke from the klondike fire
moving into areas of southern oregon.

The big feature of the forecast will be in the extended (next
Sunday). There is a lot of model spread in the guidance, which
will lead to low confidence in any forecast solution. Right now,
the most exciting solution is the deterministic ECMWF model,
which is showing significant precipitation across southern oregon
and northern california. If it were to verify, it would likely
dampen or end fire season. That being said, it would be highly
irresponsible to advertise this solution alone since the model
spread is so large; and both the GEFS and ec ensemble members
which show this much precipitation are outliers. A more likely
scenario is that some light precipitation occurs over the area as
a weak low pressure system comes ashore in the pacific northwest.

If the past few weeks have shown us anything regarding model
verification, this wet solution will quickly evolve into a much
drier scenario. Regardless, it is important to keep an eye on the
forecast as it could spell a dramatic change for us. -schaaf

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... Fire weather watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning
for orz619-620.

Ca... None.

Pacific coastal waters... Small craft advisory until 5 am pdt Wednesday for pzz356-376.

Gale warning from 2 pm Sunday to 5 am pdt Wednesday for
pzz356-376.

Small craft advisory from 2 pm Sunday to 5 am pdt Wednesday for
pzz350-370.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 72 mi40 min 48°F 55°F1016.7 hPa
46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA 83 mi62 min N 14 G 18 53°F 50°F6 ft1016.7 hPa (+0.0)
HBYC1 - 9418767 - North Spit, CA 96 mi76 min NNW 7 G 8 54°F 53°F1017.1 hPa

Wind History for Crescent City, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Montague Siskiyou County Airport, CA21 mi59 minN 1210.00 miA Few Clouds53°F43°F69%1016.8 hPa

Wind History from SIY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3NE4NE4CalmCalm33N44N5N7NW13NW8N12N14N15N15N13N11N11N12N11N12N12
1 day agoCalmCalmCalm--CalmW3CalmCalmCalm4SW3S4CalmNW9NW8E4NW9NW11NE9NE9N4NE4NE5E3
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalm3Calm3CalmCalmN3NE4Calm3CalmN8N9N11N9N3SE5NW3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Crescent City, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.