Tuesday, January16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
West Dennis, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 4:38PM Tuesday January 16, 2018 8:30 PM EST (01:30 UTC) Moonrise 7:37AMMoonset 5:26PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
ANZ232 Nantucket Sound- 716 Pm Est Tue Jan 16 2018
Tonight..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming E after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Snow and rain after midnight with vsby 1 nm or less.
Wed..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming S 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Pm Est Tue Jan 16 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Low pres will develop off the mid atlc coast late today, then will push across the waters tonight and Wed. Another high will build S of the waters Thu through Sat. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near West Dennis, MA
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 41.67, -70.18     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kbox 170013
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
713 pm est Tue jan 16 2018

Synopsis
A developing coastal low pressure will emerge off the delmarva
tonight and track northeast to near CAPE cod Wednesday morning.

This system is expected to bring a moderate to heavy snowfall to
western and central ma and northern ct late tonight into Wednesday.

Snow, with a likely transition to rain for the bos-pvd corridor
by the mid-morning. However, impacts to the morning commute are
likely. Mainly dry weather likely Wednesday night into Sunday,
with a warming trend during this weekend. Another low pressure
should affect our region early next week with mostly rain.

Near term through Wednesday
* potent winter storm expected late tonight into Wednesday
* hazardous morning commute expected
713 pm update...

overall trend in the forecast remains on track this evening.

Some light snow ahead of the main low pressure already moved
into portions of north central and western ma. Visibility was
down as low as 1 mile, so expecting this snow will be
accumulating at least a little.

Mainly tweaks to the forecast this evening to reflect observed
trends. Expecting precipitation to not overspread the rest of
southern new england until after midnight. Last few runs of the
hrrr seem to have a decent handle on timing, so used it as a
basis for this update.

Tonight into Wednesday...

overview...

more substantial snowfall is expected starting this evening into
tonight, as a coastal low pressure system is forecast to emerge
off the DELMARVA and track northeast along a baroclinic zone
close to the nj long island coast. At the same time, the
positive tilt mid upper level trough will migrate eastward.

Appears that a transfer of energy as coastal low jet structure
begins to take hold early tomorrow morning will help phase the
clipper system. This coastal low track has been key for this
forecast as it is projected to track across the CAPE and up
towards the maritimes. At the same time, open wave at 700 mb and
surface high situated over the maritimes will help allow the
warm air to push into southern new england. The lack of
blocking, also allows for this system to be quite progressive.

So with the progressive nature, closer surface low track and
warm air mixing into the i-95 corridor went ahead and adjusted
snowfall amounts and sped the system up.

P-type...

ongoing snowfall this evening will overspread across the region
as cold front from the west approaches. Coastal low will move
up the coast by the morning hours resulting a perhaps a good
thump of snow right around the morning commute. Trended the
onset of the snowfall with wet-bulbing to help indicate some
moderate lift in the snow growth region. However, decent warm
air at 925mb and at 950mb pushes into the i-95 corridor right
after the rush which will transition any snow into rain. This
will help undercut snowfall totals.

Several model p-type algorithms also keeps the precip more as
snow. However, that does not agree with current synoptics and
climatology, especially with a low tracking over the cape. The
other thing we noticed is hi-res guidance including the hrrr and
rap show a snow hole moving across ri and southeast ma towards
the morning commute. This minimum in the guidance is a suggested
in jet energy transfer towards the coastal low. Snow will
eventually fill into that region, but there could be some lower
amounts between 06-12z.

Mixing could reach as far as windham county and up into coastal
essex which is in agreement with ec, GFS and nam. As the storm
moves up towards the maritimes later in the day, it does
strengthen, allowing for any rain to transition back to snow
by the late afternoon hours. This is all depending on where
precip will be ongoing, with our highest confidence right now
for NE ma.

Snow amounts hazards...

higher snow amounts remain across western ma for this evening
which is climatology supported. Appears to be a good swath of
over 0.5 inches across hartford county and up into northern
middlesex county. Thereafter QPF amounts will be lower towards
the canal, with a secondary MAX across the CAPE and islands.

With higher snowfall ratios, expect about 5-8 inches of snowfall
within the current warning, with isolated higher amounts near 9
or 10 inches as you get closer to the berkshires. This area
appears to have good forcing within the snow growth region also
some banding near the berks down into hartford county as shown
by packed thermals in the mid-levels. Thus could see some higher
amounts. Thus will keep the current winter storm warning for
western and central ma as well as hartford and tolland ct.

As you get closer to the i-95 corridor expect around 2-5 as this
region has a better shot of mixing during the mid-morning hours.

This as well as the snow hole will keep amounts lower and thus
have downgraded the i-95 corridor to an advisory. Did not have
the confidence to keep the warning up, especially with the
warmer trends in all of the models. Closer to the south coast
and near the canal, amounts will be less than 2 inches. Most of
the snow will fall tonight into the early morning hours, but
will quickly transition to rain by the morning. Thus went ahead
an dropped the advisory.

Even though amounts and hazards have been lowered, the timing of
this system is not ideal as it brings accumulating snow during
the morning commute. Motorists should use caution and take their
time if heading out in the morning.

Short term Wednesday night
Coastal low will continue to move towards the maritimes
Wednesday night. This will pull all the moisture with is so
any lingering snow showers will come to an end. Thus will not
expect much in the way of issues with the evening commute.

Cloud cover will improve by the later half of the night, and if
we decouple then temps will bottom out during the overnight
hours. Low temps will range from 20s across the CAPE and islands
to single digits across western ma where fresh snow pack
resides.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
Highlights...

* cold and dry Thursday
* continued dry with a warming trend through this weekend
* another storm may bring mostly rain Monday into Monday night
16 12z guidance is in reasonable agreement moving a deeper mid
level trough offshore Thursday, with the mid level flow becoming
more zonal across the eastern usa by Saturday. Still expecting a
modest mid level ridge to build over the eastern seaboard this
weekend. This should set the stage for a modest mid level trough
to pass through early next week.

Overall, this is looking like a rather quiet period of the
forecast. Dry weather should prevail Thursday into Sunday, with
a gradual warming trend and above normal temperatures.

A low pressure is expected to move through the great lakes
sometime early next week, and swing a cold front across our
region. The timing is still uncertain, since it is still 6-7
days away. It does appear the most likely precipitation type
will be rain. However, some light snow, or even freezing rain,
will be possible if precipitation were to have a longer duration
at night. It will likely be several more days to work out these
sorts of details. The most likely period for precipitation
would be from Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning.

Aviation 00z Wednesday through Sunday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Wednesday night ...

tonight and Wednesday... High confidence in trends. Moderate
confidence in timing. Mainly ifr-lifr CIGS vsbys in snow, with
areas of heavy snow north of a kbos-khfd line. Snow may mix
with or change to rain south of a kghg-kpvd-kwst line during
Wednesday. Conditions improve toVFR across ct and western ma
Wednesday afternoon, and across ri and eastern central ma
Wednesday night. Wind gusts 20-25 knots around nantucket and
parts of CAPE cod.

Wednesday night... High confidence. Any lingering ifr lifr will
improve toVFR from west to east during the overnight.

Kbos terminal... Moderate to high confidence in taf. Morning push
will be impacted.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf. Morning push will be
impacted.

Outlook Thursday through Sunday ...

Thursday through Friday night:VFR. Breezy.

Saturday:VFR. Windy with local gusts to 30 kt.

Saturday night:VFR. Breezy.

Sunday:VFR.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Wednesday night ... High confidence.

Easterly swell will continue to keep seas up tonight across the
eastern waters. However seas will slowly relax late tonight.

Approaching coastal low tomorrow will build seas and winds for
all of the waters. Low pressure system will track over CAPE and
head towards the gulf of maine. Could see some gusts near 20-25
kts but seas will build near 5-8 feet. Thus have extended sca
for outer waters into Wednesday night.

Outlook Thursday through Sunday ...

Thursday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of freezing spray.

Thursday night: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.

Friday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Friday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

Saturday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Saturday night: winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Sunday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Hydrology
Minor flooding continues along the taunton river, where a flood
warning remains in effect. A flood warning is also in effect
for the connecticut river at middle haddam, where ice is causing
some river fluctuations.

Colder weather will persist through midweek which will limit
additional runoff. Continued ice jams expected on some of the
rivers. There will be an increase of snow pack for a portion of
southern new england through Wednesday as several inches of
snow will fall.

For details on specific area rivers, including observed and
forecast river stages, please visit the advanced hydrologic
prediction service (ahps) graphs on our website.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... Winter weather advisory from 1 am to 6 pm est Wednesday for
ctz004.

Winter storm warning until 3 pm est Wednesday for ctz002-003.

Ma... Winter weather advisory from 1 am to 1 pm est Wednesday for
maz017>019.

Winter weather advisory from 1 am to 6 pm est Wednesday for
maz007-013>016.

Winter storm warning until 3 pm est Wednesday for maz002-003-
008>011.

Winter storm warning from 1 am to 6 pm est Wednesday for
maz004>006-012-026.

Ri... Winter weather advisory from 1 am to 1 pm est Wednesday for
riz002>004.

Winter weather advisory from 1 am to 6 pm est Wednesday for
riz001.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 7 am to 7 pm est Wednesday for
anz235-237.

Small craft advisory until 8 am est Thursday for anz250-
254>256.

Small craft advisory until 1 am est Wednesday for anz251.

Synopsis... Belk dunten
near term... Belk dunten
short term... Dunten
long term... Belk
aviation... Belk dunten
marine... Belk dunten
hydrology...



Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44090 14 mi61 min 36°F1 ft
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 16 mi41 min SSW 1.9 G 3.9 33°F 36°F1 ft1032.3 hPa (-0.0)27°F
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 19 mi106 min Calm 31°F 1032 hPa27°F
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 27 mi43 min Calm G 1.9 33°F 34°F1032.1 hPa
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 28 mi43 min 33°F 33°F1032.1 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 49 mi91 min SE 9.9 G 11 35°F 1032.2 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
Last
24hr
N14
G20
N13
G19
N14
G20
N14
G21
N14
G20
N12
G17
N12
G16
N11
G15
N9
G13
N8
G13
N7
G13
N7
N6
G9
N7
G10
N6
N4
G7
N3
NE2
G5
N1
SW1
NE1
N3
S2
SW1
1 day
ago
N13
G18
NE9
G18
NE11
G19
NE13
G19
NE10
G18
NE14
G19
NE12
G18
NE10
G18
NE12
G16
NE14
G17
NE13
G19
NE12
G20
N11
G16
NE9
G16
NE13
G16
NE10
G16
NE12
G16
NE12
G17
NE16
G21
NE9
G19
NE12
G17
NE9
G17
N11
G20
N12
G18
2 days
ago
N15
G19
N14
G19
N12
G18
N11
G15
N11
G18
N11
G17
N10
G17
N13
G18
N13
G17
N14
G17
N12
G16
N9
G17
N10
G17
N12
G17
N11
G19
N13
G19
N16
N13
G16
N13
G21
N11
G19
N10
G17
N10
G13
N11
G17
N11
G17

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA5 mi35 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy29°F25°F85%1031.9 hPa
Chatham, Chatham Municipal Airport, MA10 mi39 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy29°F26°F89%1032.5 hPa
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA18 mi36 minS 310.00 miOvercast28°F24°F86%1032.5 hPa
Provincetown Municipal Airport, MA24 mi35 minS 510.00 miMostly Cloudy32°F28°F85%1032.3 hPa

Wind History from HYA (wind in knots)
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
Last 24hrN13
G23
N18
G24
N16
G20
N12N12
G18
N10N6N10NW8NW6NW4NW7N5N4CalmSW3SW4S6SW5S5CalmCalmS3Calm
1 day agoN11NE9N12
G19
NE11NE9NE10
G16
NE9
G20
N10NE10NE12
G18
N10
G21
N11
G19
N13N12N16
G22
N14
G25
N13
G23
N12
G19
N12
G23
N13
G20
N15
G21
N15
G23
N13
G21
N12
G22
2 days agoN11
G20
N11
G20
N14
G22
N10
G20
N11
G19
N8
G20
N13
G21
N14
G22
N12
G21
N14
G20
N10
G21
N14
G20
N11
G19
N13
G18
N15
G21
N11
G19
NW9
G18
N11
G18
NE10
G17
N11
G17
NE10NE11N8N11
G17

Tide / Current Tables for South Yarmouth, Bass River, Nantucket Sound, Massachusetts
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
South Yarmouth
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:27 AM EST     2.65 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:13 AM EST     0.23 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:36 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:04 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:31 PM EST     3.04 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:26 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:36 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:50 PM EST     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:18 PM EST     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.62.62.31.81.20.60.20.30.71.322.6332.72.11.40.70.1-0.10.20.61.21.9

Tide / Current Tables for Pollock Rip Channel, Massachusetts Current
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Pollock Rip Channel
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:45 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:12 AM EST     1.91 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 06:35 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:03 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:59 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:53 AM EST     -1.80 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 02:57 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:26 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:36 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:33 PM EST     2.23 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 09:18 PM EST     New Moon
Tue -- 09:35 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.6-1.4-0.70.211.61.91.81.1-0-1-1.6-1.8-1.6-0.9011.82.22.21.70.7-0.5-1.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (20,4,5,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.