Wednesday, April26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Warwick, RI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
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Sunrise 5:45AMSunset 7:40PM Wednesday April 26, 2017 8:00 AM EDT (12:00 UTC) Moonrise 6:13AMMoonset 7:56PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ236 Narragansett Bay- 744 Am Edt Wed Apr 26 2017
Today..SE winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 5 to 10 kt this afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Areas of fog. Rain likely with areas of drizzle this morning... Then a chance of rain with areas of drizzle this afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less... Except 3 to 5 ft at the bay entrance. Areas of fog. A chance of rain with areas of drizzle. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Thu..NE winds around 5 kt...becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less...except 3 to 5 ft at the bay entrance. Areas of fog. Areas of drizzle. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less...except 2 to 4 ft at the bay entrance. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less... Except 2 to 4 ft at the bay entrance. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less...except 2 to 4 ft at the bay entrance.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sun night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of showers. Seas are reported as significant wave height...which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 744 Am Edt Wed Apr 26 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A late season coastal storm slowly tracks up the eastern seaboard and stall south of the waters today before moving east of the waters on Thursday. A front should stall over the waters Fri into Sat followed by a backdoor front on Sunday. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period...please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Warwick, RI
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location: 41.67, -71.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 261115
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
715 am edt Wed apr 26 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure will slowly track up the east coast this morning
bringing periods of rain. Low clouds along with some drizzle and fog
are expected to linger tonight into Thursday especially along the
coast. Very mild to warm afternoons should return Friday and
Saturday, with a low risk for a few showers/thunderstorms. Much
cooler weather follows Sunday, especially on the coast. Another
cold front will likely bring more showers to the region
sometime Monday into Tuesday.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
No major changes to the forecast this morning. Tweaked pops
slightly to update the timing. Thinking the last couple runs of
the hrrr have a good timing for moving the heaviest rainfall out
of our region later today. Also made minor tweaks to
temperatures to reflect observed trends.

Not really being reported in surface obs, but thinking areas of
drizzle are likely in between the heavier rainfall echoes. Kept
that mention in the forecast.

Previous discussion... .

Overall trend in the forecast remains on track for early this
morning. Next batch of precip is beginning to make its way onto the
south coast as of 330 am. This bulk of precip could drop near a half
of an inch of qpf. Many areas across ri have already seen over 1.5
inches of rain so this will just continue to add. Will have to
closely watch for nuisance flooding in the typically prone regions
of cranston/warwick and eventually fall river and new bedford.

Cannot rule out a rumble of thunder with the rain as models continue
to show elevated instability with showalters dropping to below 0.

However haven't seen a bolt on the lightning tracker for quite some
time, so confidence is low in a rumble of thunder. If convection
does develop early this morning, then this will enhance the rainfall
amounts for the morning commute.

Today...

stacked surface low pressure system near the mid-atlantic will move
towards southern new england today. Continuous southerly flow aloft
will continue to pump moisture into the region through the day.

Appears that surface warm front will try to move in, or may just
stall across the area. This will result in difference in
temperatures. For now continued with a blend in the guidance.

The main bulk of precip will lift this morning. However, still some
weak lift and with a very saturated moisture profile, anticipate on
and off showers late this morning and into the afternoon hours.

Increasing dewpoints across the south coast could lead to patchy fog
development. Low confidence on how low vsbys will go, but something
to watch through the day.

Short term /6 pm this evening through 6 am Thursday/
Wednesday night...

stacked low pressure system will begin to move south and east of the
region. 850 mb becomes more of a open wave resulting in a more
weaken system.

Upper levels appear to begin to dry out as the low begins to move,
however, at the surface and mid-levels, the profile is quite
saturated. Anticipate a soupy mess with low clouds and fog. Will
have to watch for vsbys dropping below a quarter of a mile which
would result in a dense fog advisory. Confidence is low at this
time, but something to watch.

Continuous easterly flow overnight combined with some weak lift will
result in areas of drizzle especially across eastern locations.

Long term /Thursday through Tuesday/
Highlights...

* low clouds/spotty drizzle Thursday with cooler temps on coast
* mild to warm afternoons fri/sat with a low risk for a few
thunderstorms
* backdoor cold front brings much lower temperatures by Sunday
* period of showers, which may be briefly heavy, sometime mon/tue
details...

Thursday...

still dealing with a persistent mid level low near nantucket
Thursday morning, while the surface low pressure is slightly
farther northeast. This will mean light onshore flow with lots
of low level moisture. Expecting cloudy skies with areas of
drizzle and fog, particularly across eastern ma. As noted by the
previous forecaster, MOS guidance is likely a little too high
with MAX temperatures Thursday. Used the lower consensus of raw
model 2 meter temperatures for MAX temperatures.

Friday and Saturday... This will be a tricky portion of the
forecast. An approaching cold front should become parallel to
the mid level flow, stalling somewhere just west of our region.

This should mean a persistent southwest flow, and much higher
temperatures than the past couple of days. Expecting max
temperatures in the 70s degrees away from the south coastal
areas on both days.

However, these higher temperatures will combine with decent mid
level lapse rates to produce a low risk for thunderstorms. Right
now, Friday appears to have the greater risk of these two days,
as mid level dry air may be in place for Saturday. This could
all change should the stalled front shift closer to southern new
england.

Saturday night and Sunday...

a strong high pressure moves over eastern canada, dominating
the blocking high pressure to our southeast. This push from the
northwest should be enough to drive the stalled front just to
our south, resulting in much lower temperatures, on the order of
15-20 degrees lower Sunday afternoon.

Monday and Tuesday...

a stalled front to our south should return as a warm front
sometime Monday into Tuesday as a low pressure moves from wi
into southeast canada. The timing is still uncertain, as a
strong high pressure should be over labrador. Should this high
linger longer than currently forecast, then the precipitation
timing will be also off. Still looking like another prolonged
window for periodic showers. Rainfall could be moderate to heavy
at times.

Aviation /12z Wednesday through Sunday/
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term /through tonight/...

today... Moderate confidence. Mainly ifr cigs, with local MVFR
cigs, continue with areas of -ra/ra and patchy fog, especially
across the eastern half of southern new england. Reduced vsbys
likely, down to ifr in spots. May see areas of lifr CIGS across
the higher inland terrain and along the coast. SE winds gusting
up to around 25 kt across CAPE cod and the islands. Llws impacts
for the CAPE and islands, and possibly as far north as bos,
during this morning.

Tonight... Moderate confidence. MVFR-ifr conditions continue in areas
of fog and drizzle. A few showers are possible.

Kbos taf... High confidence in taf, moderate confidence in timing.

Kbdl taf... High confidence in taf, moderate confidence in timing.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...

Thursday... Moderate to high confidence. Ifr to even lifr
conditions likely into the morning along with some fog, drizzle
and a spot shower. Lower conditions most likely on the coast.

Conditions may improve to mainly MVFR by late Thu morning and
afternoon.

Thursday night and Friday... Moderate confidence. MVFR/ifr
conditions likely in areas of low clouds and fog patches into
early Friday morning. Improvement toVFR likely by Friday
afternoon, with the low risk for a few showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm.

Saturday and Sunday... Moderate confidence.VFR conditions.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term /through tonight/... High confidence.

Small craft advisories are in effect for all waters expect boston
harbor and narragansett bay. Seas will remain above 5 feet with
winds gusts near 20-25 kts into the afternoon. As a coastal low
begins to move eastward, winds gusts will begin to subside and
seas will relax. Small craft advisories will still be needed
for ocean waters, but overall trend will be improvement. Could
see visibility restrictions across the waters tonight in dense
fog.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/... Moderate confidence.

Winds are not expected to be be a concern through this portion
of the forecast, generally remaining less than 20 kt. The main
issue will be how long it takes for lingering swell from the
persistent low pressure near the waters to diminish. Small craft
advisories are likely to be needed across the outer coastal
waters.

In addition, areas of drizzle, fog or rain will lead to some
visibility restrictions on the coastal waters into Friday.

Tides/coastal flooding
* isolated minor coastal flooding impacts during astronomically
high tides through tonight along the east and south coasts
we are entering a spring tide cycle with high tides that are
astronomically high. This combined with an anticipated storm surge
of around 1 foot may set the stage for isolated pockets of minor
coastal flooding along both south and east coasts around the time of
high tide this morning, and again tonight. Went ahead an issued
a new coastal flood statement for potential splashover. There
is also the combination of runoff from heavy rain and elevated
water levels near high tide this morning, which could exacerbate
drainage of fresh water in some coastal urban areas, and near
the mouths of streams and small rivers.

We will need to continue to monitor the tides through at least
Wednesday night as there is not a significant offshore flow or
pressure rises to help evacuate a lingering surge. The astronomical
high tides remain very elevated through the end of the week.

Due to the breadth of the fetch, we may encounter enough wave action
with lengthening periods on top of an elevated tide to cause pockets
of erosion tonight through tonight along the martha's vineyard south
coast, nantucket south and east coasts, and the outer CAPE ocean
side from truro to chatham.

Boston high tides (flood stage at boston 12.5 feet)...

11.47 feet / Tuesday 11:20 pm
11.15 feet / Wednesday 11:50 am
11.92 feet / Thursday 12:07 am
providence high tides (flood stage at providence 7 feet)...

5.98 feet / Tuesday 8:11 pm
5.53 feet / Wednesday 8:41 am
6.21 feet / Wednesday 9:00 pm

Box watches/warnings/advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 3 pm edt this afternoon for
anz231>234.

Small craft advisory until 9 am edt Thursday for anz235-237-
250-251-254>256.

Synopsis... Belk/dunten
near term... Belk/dunten
short term... Dunten
long term... Belk
aviation... Belk/dunten
marine... Belk/dunten
tides/coastal flooding... Staff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 2 mi76 min SE 8.9 59°F 1010 hPa59°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 2 mi49 min SSE 7 G 15 59°F 1009.6 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 3 mi43 min E 11 G 15 58°F 49°F1010 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 7 mi49 min ESE 15 G 22 57°F 49°F1009.9 hPa
PVDR1 8 mi43 min ESE 7 G 12 58°F 1010.1 hPa58°F
FRXM3 9 mi43 min 59°F 57°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 10 mi43 min SSE 6 G 8.9 58°F 48°F1009.8 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 10 mi43 min 58°F 47°F1010.4 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 10 mi43 min ESE 11 G 15 58°F 1009.1 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 12 mi43 min ESE 16 G 22 55°F 46°F1009.1 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 25 mi61 min ESE 32 G 34 53°F 1008.7 hPa (-1.3)
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 37 mi43 min 54°F 49°F1010.6 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 44 mi76 min 8 53°F 53°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 45 mi43 min E 11 G 14 57°F 45°F1009 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 46 mi46 min E 19 G 20 53°F 1008.1 hPa52°F

Wind History for Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Providence, Theodore Francis Green State Airport, RI6 mi70 minNNW 33.00 miFog/Mist55°F55°F100%1010.3 hPa
Newport, Newport State Airport, RI10 mi68 minESE 15 G 234.00 miFog/Mist57°F57°F100%1009.3 hPa
Pawtucket, North Central State Airport, RI17 mi65 minNNE 80.50 miLight Rain Fog50°F50°F100%1013.1 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA20 mi68 minESE 14 G 206.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist57°F55°F93%1010.3 hPa
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA23 mi69 minESE 79.00 miLight Rain58°F55°F93%1010.6 hPa

Wind History from OQU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE15NE14NE20----NE20NE20NE18NE18NE15--NE10NE12NE10NE14----------------SE21
1 day ago--NE9NE10SE9SE8SE10S14
G24
SW18S18S16--------------------------NE15
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Nayatt Point, Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island
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Nayatt Point
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Wed -- 01:47 AM EDT     -1.08 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:13 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:18 AM EDT     New Moon
Wed -- 08:31 AM EDT     5.49 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:55 PM EDT     -1.06 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:38 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:56 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:53 PM EDT     6.39 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.3-0.8-1.1-0.60.31.63.14.55.45.44.32.50.6-0.7-1.1-0.70.31.63.24.866.45.63.9

Tide / Current Tables for Westport River Entrance, Massachusetts Current
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Westport River Entrance
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:53 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:12 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:44 AM EDT     2.44 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 08:18 AM EDT     New Moon
Wed -- 09:10 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:40 AM EDT     -3.15 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 03:14 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:04 PM EDT     2.37 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 07:37 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:54 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:30 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-2.9-2-0.90.111.82.32.41.80.3-1.6-2.9-3.1-2.4-1.3-0.30.71.52.12.42.10.9-0.9-2.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.