Sunday, May20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Warwick, RI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:19AMSunset 8:05PM Sunday May 20, 2018 5:54 PM EDT (21:54 UTC) Moonrise 10:32AMMoonset 12:26AM Illumination 35% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ236 Narragansett Bay- 336 Pm Edt Sun May 20 2018
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Areas of fog this evening. Scattered showers this evening with vsby 1 nm or less.
Mon..N winds around 5 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, diminishing to around 5 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 336 Pm Edt Sun May 20 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A cold front will cross the waters tonight followed by high pressure on Mon. The high will build se of the waters Mon night then head E on Tue. Low pres approaches the waters from the sw late Tue, lifting ne Tue night. High pressure builds E over new england Wed and Thu, with the high building se of the waters on Fri. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Warwick, RI
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location: 41.67, -71.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 201931
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
331 pm edt Sun may 20 2018

Synopsis
After a few showers with a cold frontal passage this evening,
drier weather returns through Monday night. Cooler with passing
showers Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening as a warm front
approaches. Mainly dry weather for the rest of the week into
Saturday with temperatures averaging above normal. The risk for
showers increases by Sunday.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
Sfc obs and msas mass fields suggest the cold front is currently
draped from about hartford-worcester-boston at the time of this
writing and continuing the slide sse. With the attendant upper
shortwave weakening and flow aloft becoming more zonal, this
front may slow somewhat, but current timing has it fully
offshore of even the CAPE islands after 00z. Sct shra have
developed where some late morning and afternoon clearing were
able to force mu CAPE values to about +500j kg, but with
mediocre lapse rates and low ml CAPE values they have struggled
to form decent updrafts. No TS so far and in fact, will feature
gradually dissipating pops as the front and shra slide S as
cloud cover has kept S ct, ri and SE ma even more stable.

Otherwise, lingering coastal fog possible through the evening
hours, but with developing NW flow behind the cold frontal
passage these should clear on the mainland. Widespread
stratus fog to the W of mvy ack may linger later in the evening
but these too should be clearing with time.

Nw drier flow should lead to clearing through the overnight,
pres rises are relatively meager. Therefore, could be a cool
morning with the possibility of localized decoupling, mins in
the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through Monday night
Tomorrow...

1025mb high pres noses in from the W through the day as modest
mid lvl ridging returns. Dry wx prevails with some diurnal cu
possible. H85 temps near +10c, but mixing may well exceed this
value, therefore expecting widespread mid-high 70s for highs.

A few exceptions, W downsloping should allow typical downslope
locations like the ct and merrimack valleys to reach around 80,
and sea breezes are possible along the immediate coastlines,
holding highs in the lower 70s. Comfortable with low, well mixed
dwpts.

Tomorrow night...

mainly dry as high pres slips e. Only issue will be incoming
mid and high clouds during the am hours. However, the precip
shield from a remnant MCS should hold off until the daylight
hours. Mins in the 50s most locations.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
Highlights...

* cooler with passing showers Tue into Tue night
* mainly dry weather with above normal temps Wed through sat,
coolest Thursday
* risk of showers increases by Sunday
overview...

zonal flow with weak shortwave passage tue, then northern stream
trough will amplify to the north and east Wed into Thu which will
push a cold front through the region. Rising heights and shortwave
ridging follow Fri into Sat then next northern stream trough
approaches Sunday.

Precipitation...

main focus for wet weather this week will be Tue into Tue night as
shortwave passage with weak warm front approaching from the SW and
moistening column will likely bring some showers during this time
period. Best chance appears to be in the afternoon evening. No
surface instability but marginal elevated instability may support an
isold t-storm late late Tue and Tue evening. Looks dry Wed into sat.

We have a cold front moving through wed, but limited moisture and
low level convergence will likely result in a dry fropa. Increasing
risk of showers by Sunday with approach of next northern stream
trough, but confidence is low due to timing uncertainty.

Temperatures...

coolest day of the week will likely be Tue as sne will be influenced
by clouds and some shower activity on cool side of frontal boundary,
but temps close to seasonable normals. Warmer air returns Wed ahead
of a cold front then a bit cooler post-frontal airmass thu.

Potential for summer warmth with temps into the 80s interior fri-sun.

Aviation 20z Sunday through Friday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Monday night ...

through 03z... Moderate confidence.

MainlyVFR north of a line from hvn-pvd-ghg, but with a risk for
shra between 19z-23z from n-s as they develop. Ifr lifr S of
this line lingers through the evening, with a risk for a spot
shower as the line of shra dissipates. Winds shift to the w
then NW through the evening.

Overnight into tomorrow... High confidence.

Winds continue to shift to the NW through the early am hours
this will allow for clearing of most clouds into the daylight
hours Monday.VFR dominates, except maybe ack where lingering
fog is possible during the morning.

Tomorrow night... High confidence.

MainlyVFR. Light W winds.

Kbos terminal... Moderate confidence in taf, at issue is the
exact timing for a shra tsra risk mainly 19z through 21z.

Improvement thereafter.

Kbdl terminal... Moderate confidence in taf.

Outlook Tuesday through Friday ... Moderate confidence.

Tuesday:VFR. Chance shra.

Tuesday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
shra.

Wednesday:VFR. Slight chance shra.

Wednesday night through Thursday night:VFR.

Friday:VFR. Breezy.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Monday night ... High confidence.

Winds will gradually be shifting to the NW all waters late this
afternoon and evening, but should remain below 25kt from now on.

The winds remain below small craft thresholds through tomorrow
night. Seas however were running about 5-7 ft on the SE ocean
waters, so will continue small craft advisory into tomorrow for
these seas, at which point they too should drop below
thresholds.

A few showers cross the waters through the early evening hours.

Otherwise, lingering fog possible mainly across the SE waters,
these too should lift during the overnight.

Outlook Tuesday through Friday ... Moderate confidence.

Tuesday through Tuesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Chance of
rain showers.

Wednesday: winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain
showers.

Wednesday night through Thursday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas
locally approaching 5 ft.

Thursday night: winds less than 25 kt.

Friday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Fire weather
Spotty locations received as much as 0.5 inches of
precipitation this weekend, but several locations received
less. Given fuels were dry, this may not have been enough to
fully moisten them. Rh values Monday will drop as low as 15-25
percent inland, but winds should remain light out of the nw,
around 10mph most of the day.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 1 pm edt Monday for anz254>256.

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Monday for anz235-237.

Synopsis... Kjc doody
near term... Doody
short term... Doody
long term... Kjc
aviation... Kjc doody
marine... Kjc doody
fire weather...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 2 mi70 min SSW 8 65°F 992 hPa61°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 2 mi55 min SW 5.1 G 8.9 65°F 1011.4 hPa (-0.7)
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 3 mi55 min S 14 G 15 60°F 56°F1011.3 hPa (-0.0)
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 7 mi55 min SW 4.1 G 7 69°F 56°F1011.7 hPa (-0.4)
PVDR1 8 mi55 min SSE 8 G 9.9 67°F 1011.4 hPa (-0.0)66°F
FRXM3 9 mi55 min 72°F 65°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 10 mi55 min W 9.9 G 13 76°F 55°F1010.9 hPa (-0.0)
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 10 mi55 min 73°F 56°F1011.9 hPa (-0.6)
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 10 mi55 min SSW 14 G 18 69°F 1011.1 hPa (-0.6)
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 12 mi55 min S 8.9 G 9.9 60°F 53°F1011.8 hPa (-0.6)
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 25 mi55 min SW 20 G 22 54°F 1012.5 hPa (-0.7)
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 37 mi55 min 55°F 55°F1012.4 hPa (-0.5)
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 44 mi70 min 2.9 59°F 1012 hPa58°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 45 mi55 min SSW 7 G 11 73°F 50°F1011.5 hPa (-0.7)
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 46 mi45 min SW 12 G 13 64°F 1006.6 hPa58°F

Wind History for Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
N. Kingston / Quonset, RI6 mi65 minSW 1310.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F62°F73%1011.5 hPa
Providence, Theodore Francis Green State Airport, RI6 mi64 minSW 910.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F69°F85%1011.3 hPa
Newport, Newport State Airport, RI10 mi62 minSSW 710.00 miFair67°F61°F81%1011.6 hPa
Pawtucket, North Central State Airport, RI17 mi59 minno data10.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F66°F74%1006.3 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA20 mi62 minWSW 810.00 miA Few Clouds71°F66°F84%1011.1 hPa
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA23 mi63 minWSW 57.00 miLight Rain75°F66°F74%1011 hPa

Wind History from OQU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--------------------------------SW12--SW10SW14SW13SW15SW13SW13
1 day agoE13E10E13E8E10Calm--------------------NE8E10E8--E6E6E5Calm
2 days agoS10S10SW8SW5SW8SW5----------------NE16NE18NE20NE20NE14
G24
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G24
NE14NE14E13E13

Tide / Current Tables for Nayatt Point, Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island
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Nayatt Point
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Sun -- 12:22 AM EDT     5.58 feet High Tide
Sun -- 12:26 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:03 AM EDT     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:32 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:58 PM EDT     4.76 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:15 PM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.55.44.32.71.20.1-0.3-0.10.51.32.43.54.44.84.33.11.70.60.10.20.71.52.43.5

Tide / Current Tables for Westport River Entrance, Massachusetts Current
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Westport River Entrance
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Sun -- 12:24 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 12:47 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:22 AM EDT     -2.93 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 05:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:48 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 10:32 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:01 AM EDT     2.22 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 01:30 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:56 PM EDT     -2.70 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 07:41 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:36 PM EDT     1.74 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.1-0.3-1.9-2.9-2.7-1.9-0.80.211.622.21.90.8-0.8-2.2-2.7-2.2-1.4-0.50.20.81.31.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.