Saturday, January19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pocasset, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 4:44PM Saturday January 19, 2019 10:21 PM EST (03:21 UTC) Moonrise 4:09PMMoonset 6:26AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ234 Buzzards Bay- 716 Pm Est Sat Jan 19 2019
.gale warning in effect through Monday morning...
Tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain. Snow likely this evening. Vsby 1 nm or less, increasing to 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Sun..S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sun night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Freezing spray likely.
Mon..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Freezing spray.
Mon night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Freezing spray.
Tue..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Freezing spray likely.
Tue night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain likely with a chance of snow.
Wed night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain likely.
Thu..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain likely.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of rain. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Pm Est Sat Jan 19 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A potent storm system located over tennessee this afternoon will head ne and impact the srn new england waters tonight and Sun. The center of circulation will track across rhode island and the south shore of boston vicinity Sun evening. As the storm pulls away, in its wake arctic air will spread across the waters Sun night through Mon night on gusty nw gales resulting in areas of freezing spray. High pres builds over the waters on Tue, then moves off the mid-atlantic coast on Wed. Low pres will move E across northern new england on Wed, and be trailed by another lifting ne over southern new england on Thu. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pocasset, MA
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location: 41.68, -70.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 192355
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
655 pm est Sat jan 19 2019

Synopsis
A significant winter storm will impact the region tonight into
Sunday afternoon with heavy, wet snow, ice, and rain. Arctic
air follows this system into early next week. Another weather
system may bring rain and snow next Wednesday.

Near term through Sunday
7 pm update ...

not too many changes at this point. Not wanting to wipe away
immediately the 4 pm update. Evaluating the latest trends, the
2m temperatures via the href are too cold whereas the latest
hrrr and nbm are close to spot on. Thermal fields aloft continue
to differ as does the low-level jet. 18z guidance has shifted
ever so subtly but not in any one particular direction. At this
point it'll be short-term near-term updates going forward.

* highlights...

- significant winter storm tonight into Sun afternoon
- heavy rain and possible urban poor drainage flooding SE new
england Sunday
- flash freeze eastern ma ri Sunday mid late afternoon: very
hazardous travel
* overview...

12z guidance suite has continued the northward trend and warmer
scenario as we are dealing with a more amplified S stream short-
wave. GFS remains on the western envelope of solutions but even
the nam ECMWF has low tracking across SE new eng on Sunday. We
are leaning toward nam ECMWF solution.

850 700 mb lows tracking mainly north and west of sne which is
not a favorable track to keep deep cold air in place. Also,
persistent mesoscale banding will be to the north of the mid
level low track. Result will be a bit less snow due to rapid mid
level warming, although still looking at a decent front end
thump tonight. Highest risk for appreciable ice accum also
shifting north across interior ma.

This southern stream system will have abundant moisture with
pwats up to 3sd above normal. Southerly low level wind
anomalies also around 3sd above normal which will bring a heavy
qpf event to sne. The main challenges are snowfall amounts
tonight in the intense warm advection before ptype transition,
location extent of icing in the interior, timing of flash freeze
eastern new eng Sun afternoon, and flood potential for SE new
eng.

1) snow ice accumulations and uncertainty...

steady snow develops this evening and should quickly ramp up
with a period of heavy snow as a band of strong 850 mb
frontogenesis lifts north across sne. Snowfall rates of 1-2
inches per hour are expected, especially in the interior.

However, mid level warm layer expected to advance north across
sne after midnight likely reaching nh border by 12z sun. This
will result in snow flipping to rain from the south coast
northward along the i95 corridor after 06z, with a changeover to
sleet and freezing rain in the interior where low level cold air
will persist. Much of the snow in northern ma will likely be
over by 12z sun. Given that the warm layer aloft is more
pronounced and low level cold layer is more shallow, we are
expecting more freezing rain than sleet in the interior. The
main risk of freezing rain on Sunday will be across interior ma
west of i495 and possibly into the ct valley in northern ct.

Our snowfall forecast has 1-3 inches along the south coast,
increasing to 3-6 inches across N ct and along the i95 corridor
from N ri to boston and coastal essex county. The MAX snowfall
will be north of the mass pike where generally 6-10 inches are
expected, highest amounts near the nh border, with a risk for a
foot of snow across NW ma. The exact timing of changeover will
be critical to accumulation forecast as heavy snow will be
falling during the transition time. Amounts could be off by 2 or
3 inches if the timing changes by a few hours.

Regarding ice accumulation, we shifted the axis of max
accumulation to the north, from NW hartford county to interior
ma along and a bit north of the pike. This is where locally
0.25" to less than 0.50" ice accretion is possible. This would
likely be in a narrow location but would increase power outage
threat which would be significant problem given bitter cold air
to follow Sun night.

Winter headlines are largely unchanged but upgraded hartford
county to a warning for combination of 3-6" snow and up to
0.25" ice.

2) flash freeze across eastern ma ri: very hazardous travel
we have high confidence that a flash freeze will occur but
lower confidence on timing. Given the further north trend in
the guidance, much milder air is expected across the coastal
plain with temps into the 40s with a chance of some 50s as well.

However, a strong coastal front in the interior with temps in
the 20s to the west will crash to the coast sometime in the
afternoon with temps falling sharply into and through the 20s.

Current timing is 3-6 pm from bos-pvd to the south coast and a
bit later for CAPE cod but timing could be off by a few hours.

This is a big concern as any wet surfaces will rapidly freeze
resulting in very hazardous travel. In addition, rain may end as
a period of sleet or freezing rain here as deep cold air is
lagging the low level cold air by a few hours.

3) heavy rainfall and flood potential
given anomalous pwats and low level jet with strong forcing
expect rainfall of 2-3 inches across ri and SE ma, with locally
1-2 inches possible in a 6 hour period 12-18z sun. This will
result in areas of urban and poor drainage flooding so a flood
watch will be issued. Some river flooding is also possible in ri
if these rainfall amounts are realized.

4) strong winds
strong low level jet will be moving across the CAPE islands on
Sunday. Thermal profiles are inverted which will limit gusts,
but could see a few gusts to 45 mph so wind advisories will be
issued for the outer CAPE and ack.

Short term Sunday night
Sunday night-Monday...

weekend storm departs through the maritimes Sunday night. High
pressure over the great lakes and the storm in the maritimes will
generate a strong pressure gradient over new england, maintaining
the cold advection and resulting mixing over our area. Strong north
winds will turn from the northwest overnight and continue to draw
arctic air into southern new england.

Temperatures upstream in the NRN plains started the past couple of
days in the single numbers with dew points below zero. Expect Sunday
evening temps in the teens, but falling into the single numbers by
morning. A few spots in western and central mass and northern ct.

Mixing from 950 mb suggests Monday MAX sfc temps near 10f. We used 5-
15f inland and around 20f on the CAPE and islands.

Long term Monday through Saturday
Tuesday through Thursday...

high pressure moves over new england Tuesday. Winds diminish with
the high, which will generate radiational cooling Tuesday morning.

The clear skies and light wind will allow min temps in the single
numbers and below zero.

Low pressure that moves onshore on the pacific coast this weekend
splits into two parts. One moves across canada and the northern usa
will move across the country next week, bringing rain or snow to
southern new england Wednesday. The second part of the system dives
southeast to the gulf of mexico by Wednesday, then moving up the
east coast Thursday or Friday maintaining a chance of rain or snow.

Aviation 00z Sunday through Thursday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Sunday night ... High confidence on trends. Lower
confidence on exact timing of precip type transitions.

Tonight...

widespread ifr lifr with -sn sn developing, transitioning to
pl fzra towards the N and W with time, changing to ra along
the bos-hfd line by 12z Sunday. With transition, may see improved
vsbys, however CIGS will remain ifr lifr. E winds increasing,
gusts of around 35 kts towards morning with llws over SE new
england 2 kft agl 40 to 60 kts.

Sunday...

continued ifr lifr conditions. Pl fzra over N W ma through
roughly 18z while ra +ra for hfd-bvy and points S e. Vsby
issues with either. Llws for SE new england through 21-0z at the
latest, continued 2 kft agl 40 to 60 kts. E winds initially
through roughly 18z with gusts up to 40 kts across E coastal ma
terminals. Winds shifting W late, will see precip dissipate,
conditions quickly improve, CIGS lifting towardsVFR. Concern
for SE new england with residual, standing water freezing on
runways.

Sunday night...

blustery NW winds, gusts upwards of 35 kts, conditions continuing
to improveVFR. Residual water along runways over SE new england
likely freezing with arctic air building in.

Kbos terminal...

sn ongoing likely to continuing into early morning by then will
see a brief flip to a wintry mix during the morning push before
quickly transitioning to rain. Have to watch llws closely for
roughly around the 9-18z Sunday period. Blustery NW winds Sunday
night, could see flash freeze conditions on area runways.

Kbdl terminal...

sn through roughly after midnight, then we'll see the transition
to sleet then to freezing rain. Freezing rain lingering through
much of Sunday potentially, could see some significant ice
accretion on runways. Current forecast amounts of around 0.2 to
0.4 inches. Clearing out late Sunday with winds turning W nw
and blustery.

Outlook Monday through Thursday ...

martin luther king jr day through Tuesday:VFR. Windy with
gusts to 35 kt.

Tuesday night:VFR. Breezy. Chance sn.

Wednesday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Ra likely, chance sn, chance pl, fzra likely.

Wednesday night: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy
with local gusts to 30 kt. Ra likely, fzra likely.

Thursday: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Strong winds
with areas gusts to 40 kt. Ra likely.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Sunday night ...

e winds increasing tonight with gale force gusts developing
after midnight into Sunday. Winds shifting to S over south
coastal waters Sunday, then near gale force N NW winds develop
Sunday night behind arctic front. Freezing spray developing late
Sunday into Sunday night, becoming moderate to heavy further out
in time.

Outlook Monday through Thursday ...

martin luther king jr day: strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt.

Rough seas up to 12 ft. Freezing spray, chance of snow showers.

Monday night: moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up
to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Freezing spray, slight chance
of snow showers.

Tuesday: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt.

Areas of rough seas. Freezing spray likely.

Tuesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of snow.

Wednesday: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain likely, chance of snow.

Wednesday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
local gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain likely.

Thursday: low risk for gale force winds with local gusts up to
45 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Rain likely.

Tides coastal flooding
An approaching deep low pressure will induce a strong easterly
low level jet.

By the time of high tide Sunday along the east coast (roughly
10 am local), surge should be approaching 2.0 ft, which
combined with offshore wave action around 15 ft should lead to
localized minor to moderate E coastal flooding given a high
astronomical base tide in boston around 11.6 ft mllw. Given the
high astro tide, continued a coastal flood warning for eastern
ma and an advisory of the south coast, cape, and islands.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... Winter weather advisory until 7 pm est Sunday for ctz003-004.

Winter storm warning until 7 pm est Sunday for ctz002.

Ma... Flood watch from 6 am est Sunday through Sunday afternoon for
maz017>022.

Winter weather advisory until 7 pm est Sunday for maz013-
015>021.

Coastal flood advisory from 8 am to noon est Sunday for maz007-
015-016-019-022>024.

Winter storm warning until 7 pm est Sunday for maz002>012-014-
026.

Coastal flood advisory from 5 am to 10 am est Sunday for
maz020-021.

Wind advisory from 5 am to 3 pm est Sunday for maz022-024.

Ri... Flood watch from 6 am est Sunday through Sunday afternoon for
riz002>007.

Winter weather advisory until 7 pm est Sunday for riz001>007.

Coastal flood advisory from 5 am to 10 am est Sunday for
riz004>007.

Marine... Gale warning from 10 pm this evening to 7 am est Monday for
anz231>235-237-250-251-254>256.

Small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 7 am est
Monday for anz230.

Small craft advisory from midnight tonight to 7 am est Monday
for anz236.

Synopsis... Kjc sipprell
near term... Kjc sipprell
short term... Sipprell
long term... Sipprell
aviation... Kjc sipprell
marine... Kjc sipprell
tides coastal flooding... Nocera


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 8 mi96 min ENE 5.1 32°F 1021 hPa32°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 11 mi39 min 34°F 36°F1018.8 hPa
44090 19 mi51 min 39°F3 ft
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 22 mi31 min E 19 G 23 35°F 3 ft33°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 29 mi33 min ENE 12 G 17 32°F 1018.6 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 29 mi81 min E 23 G 26 35°F 1020 hPa (-2.5)
FRXM3 30 mi33 min 31°F 30°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 38 mi96 min ENE 11 32°F 1021 hPa31°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 38 mi39 min E 14 G 19 32°F 1018.8 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 39 mi33 min ENE 17 G 21 32°F 39°F1018.7 hPa
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 39 mi33 min E 14 G 16 36°F 35°F1019.7 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 39 mi39 min E 13 G 21 33°F 39°F1018.3 hPa
PVDR1 41 mi33 min ENE 9.9 G 13 31°F 1019 hPa31°F
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 42 mi39 min ENE 15 G 19 33°F 40°F1018.8 hPa
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 42 mi39 min E 8 G 13 31°F 40°F1018.6 hPa
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 44 mi31 min E 21 G 25 32°F 6 ft1021.1 hPa (-2.2)29°F
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 46 mi31 min ENE 21 G 27 32°F 42°F5 ft1020.5 hPa (-2.2)31°F

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA5 mi26 minENE 83.00 miFog/Mist30°F30°F100%1019.3 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA17 mi29 minE 9 G 184.00 miFog/Mist32°F28°F85%1020 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA18 mi25 minE 102.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist34°F30°F89%1019.3 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA19 mi28 minENE 103.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist31°F30°F100%1018.5 hPa
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA19 mi28 minE 13 G 216.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist34°F34°F100%1018.6 hPa

Wind History from FMH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmNW4NW3NW5NW5N5N8NE15NE9
G16
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1 day agoNE5NE5NE4NE5NE6N5NE6E4E5E4NE5NE5E6E9E7E4E5CalmCalmW3W3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoW11W10W9NW7NW6NW8NW8
G15
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NE7NE9NE6NE6NE4CalmE4CalmNE5

Tide / Current Tables for Barlows Landing, Pocasset Harbor, Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts
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Barlows Landing
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Sat -- 05:26 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:17 AM EST     4.96 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:09 PM EST     -0.54 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:09 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:41 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:42 PM EST     4.15 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.40.212.13.34.34.94.73.72.30.8-0.2-0.5-0.40.212.13.244.13.42.10.7-0.4

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:14 AM EST     0.03 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:15 AM EST     4.10 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 05:26 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:33 AM EST     -0.13 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:35 AM EST     -4.64 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 01:44 PM EST     0.03 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:08 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:41 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 04:51 PM EST     4.44 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 08:18 PM EST     -0.02 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:06 PM EST     -4.45 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-3.2-1.52.53.74.143.42.2-2.1-3.7-4.5-4.6-4-2.71.63.44.24.44.13.41.8-2.7-4-4.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.