Saturday, February23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pocasset, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:26AMSunset 5:27PM Saturday February 23, 2019 11:49 PM EST (04:49 UTC) Moonrise 11:25PMMoonset 10:01AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
ANZ234 Buzzards Bay- 1017 Pm Est Sat Feb 23 2019
.storm warning in effect from late Sunday night through Monday evening...
Rest of tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sat night..SE winds around 5 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of rain after midnight.
Sun..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Patchy fog. Rain. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sun night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 25 to 30 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 35 kt, increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas around 6 ft. Patchy fog in the evening. A chance of rain with patchy drizzle in the evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..W winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Seas around 6 ft.
Mon night..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 45 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Tue..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the morning. Seas 1 foot or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of snow showers in the evening. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 1017 Pm Est Sat Feb 23 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pres moves across the waters through tonight. A warm front will approach the waters on Sun, bringing widespread rain and strong s-se winds. A cold front passes by Mon to possibly bring storm force wind gusts. Another high pres approaches from the W Tue. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pocasset, MA
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 41.68, -70.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kbox 240341
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
1041 pm est Sat feb 23 2019

Synopsis
High pressure builds across the maritimes tonight. Low pressure
then tracks along the coast Sunday with a wind-swept rain
during the morning tapering off to drizzle in the afternoon. The
exception will be inland where freezing rain ice during the
morning before changing over to all rain mid to late morning.

Strong to damaging winds develop Sunday night, peaking Monday,
then gradually diminishing into Tuesday. Then bitterly cold
weather overspreads the region Tue night into Wednesday. Not as
cold Thursday and Friday followed by potential winter weather
around next Saturday.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
No major changes to the forecast this evening. Low level
humidity still has to increase a bit more before steady
precipitation will reach the ground. Still thinking this will
occur after midnight, but may be a little later than previously
thought. Temperatures will be critical, and will be monitored
closely overnight. Winter weather advisories continue for the
threat of freezing rain.

Otherwise, brought the forecast for the next several hours back
in line with observed trends.

715 pm update...

18z models and latest hrrr have slowed onset of precip to about
09z 4 am western ct ma including hartford springfield then
entering eastern ma ri around 12z 7 am or thereafter. This
seems reasonable based on latest radar trends and surface
observations with light rain just entering eastern pa and nj at
7 pm. Part of the reason is downstream upper air pattern is
amplifying with time courtesy of 954 mb low in the north-
central atlantic. This will result in a slower departure of the
mid level ridge and cold dry high pressure currently over
eastern quebec and maine. Earlier discussion below.

=====================================================================
*** winter weather advisory for interior southern new england ***
dense ci shield has prevented mixing from reaching its full
potential this afternoon, combine this with a slightly colder
than expected start and temps have struggled a bit to reach
initial forecast highs and are generally cooler than forecast.

With highly amplified pattern led by sub 970mb low pres in the
w atlantic, guidance trend over the last 24-48 hours has been
slower with the onset of isentropic precip shield moving across
the region late tonight, with timing now suggesting it is just
barely reaching W ct after 06z. This will give more time for
diurnal cooling, which considering the colder than forecast
start, should allow for several locations to dip below freezing,
especially taking wet-bulb processes into account as dwpt
depressions are 5-10f by 03z.

Meanwhile, as the warm front lifts n, frontal wave looks to
initialize near nj DELMARVA region within modest convection.

This become elongated as the warm front shifts N and likely
lifts into S new england through Sun afternoon. There is a noted
ageostrophic response to this development, as lower lvl
ageostrophic flow shows strong N component especially areas W of
the worcester hills through at least 12-14z. Given the gradient
flow is more E than se, there is less opposition to the n
ageostrophic component. With this in mind, will lean more
heavily on the coldest available guidance through the morning
hours, which suggests broader area of pl sn changing rapidly to
rain along the E and SE regions, but yielding a higher risk for
fzra across the interior, especially where nohrsc suggests
continued modest snowpack.

Will expand the winter wx advisories to include N ct and N ri as
a result, and lengthen timing for the E slopes of the berkshires
and worcester hills where ageostrophic northerlies last the
longest. Final sn pl totals still well under an inch, with ice
totals t-0.25 inches possible, highest in the higher terrain and
where advisories are out the longest.

The advancing warm front, combined with diurnal mixing should
lead to enough sfc warming for a change to rain between 12z-15z
from s-n across the region, ending the risk for further ice
threat.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through Sunday night
10am Sunday through Sunday evening...

with a full change to rain as sfc temps warm above freezing,
attention will shift toward how far N warm sector is able to
reach. The slightly amplified, less progressive pattern hinted
at suggests that the warm front may not lift as far N as
previously though, but looking at a combination of both mass
fields and low-mid lvl thermal profiles, it may reach as far n
as the ct ri border with ma before meso-low and approaching cold
front forces the entire frontal system eastward during the mid-
late afternoon. With this possibility, there is a low risk for a
brief heavier downpour and even a low risk for a rumble of ts
across mainly SE ma, CAPE islands with a bit of mu CAPE within
the warm sector. The primary risk would be enhanced rainfall
rates with localized higher totals than the widespread qpf
values of 0.5-0.75 forecast.

As the cold front approaches, mid upper lvl dry air will be
filtering in, so anticipate transition from ra to a mix of dz
and br late afternoon evening from sw-ne until ana-frontal
mixing can dry out the lower lvls late. Therefore, expect damp
conditions most of the day. Highs in the mid-upper 40s for those
who do get to the warm sector, upper 30s to low 40s further n.

Sun night...

the combination of CAA and dry air entrainment will erode the
lingering fog low cloud and drizzle through the evening hours.

Caa will be strong, combined with a very robust sfc pres
gradient building as low pres deepens below 970mb near the
maritimes. Winds should remain below high wind criteria
overnight predominantly due to diurnal inversion development
limiting mixing. However by early am mon, the CAA and pres
gradient should overcome the diurnal trend such that gusts could
begin to reach at least wind advisory thresholds. High wind
watches were expanded to the remainder of the area during the
overnight hours, although the strongest winds will hold off
until the daylight hours mon.

Long term Monday through Saturday
* highlights ...

- strong to damaging with scattered power outages Monday
- bitterly cold Tuesday night into Wednesday
- wintry precipitation possible around next Saturday
Monday ...

very strong signal for damaging winds and scattered power outages
Monday as low pressure bombs down to 969 over maine late Monday.

Meanwhile arctic high pressure at 1040+ mb builds into the high
plains. This creates about a 72 mb pres difference between these two
systems and into new england! In addition cold air advection yields
very steep low level lapse rates with blyr depths to almost 800 mb
with 60-70 kt at this level! Even taking the average blyr winds via
bufkit soundings yields 50-60 kt. Thus above average forecast
confidence (very little forecast uncertainty) that wind gusts of 55
to 65 mph will be common Monday across the entire region. This will
be sufficient for at least scattered tree damage and power outages
region-wide. Thus have issued a high wind watch for the entire
region. Wouldn't be surprised if isolated wind gusts exceed 70 mph
given parameters above along with some downslope acceleration.

Core of cold air is delayed until Tue ngt and Wed so highs Mon in
the 30s but will feel like it's in the 20s given the very strong
winds. Other than a spot flurry isolated snow shower via lake effect
connection, dry weather prevails.

Tuesday and Wednesday ...

very windy Tue but not quite as strong as Monday but second pulse of
strong winds arrive later Tue tue ngt with arctic front. Low risk
for snow shower flurries given lake effect connection continues.

However the big story will be the arctic cold with new 12z ec
offering 925 mb temps Wed morning down to -22c across northern ma!
these values are about -2 to -3 standard deviations below climo.

Thus have blended in some of the colder guidance to reflect this
extreme airmass. In fact thickness may fall just below 500 dam early
wed! Highs only in the teens and 20s both days with Tue ngt mins in
the single digits and teens but much colder wind chills given
blustery wnw winds.

Thursday and Friday ...

arctic high builds over the region but winds diminish and airmass
modifies so temps rebound into the 30s. Dry weather Thu but will
have to watch a low amplitude short wave Fri that may bring some
light wintry precip.

Saturday ...

day 7 here but models have been advertising potential pacific and
gulf moisture approaching the region with parent low cutting across
the great lakes while secondary low possibly develops somewhere mid
atlc region.

Aviation 04z Sunday through Thursday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Sunday night ... High confidence.

1040 pm update...

previous forecast still looks to be on track. No major changes.

715 pm ...

not much change from previous tafs. Onset of precip a bit slower
than previously thought with latest 18z guidance indicating
precip arrives into western ma ct around 09z and then into
eastern ma ri around 12z or thereafter. Earlier discussion
below.

================================================================
through midnight local...

vfr. Gradually lowering CIGS and precip approaching from the
w-sw, but it should remain out of the area until after midnight
for all but the very far W ma ct terminals. Winds light and
variable, but with a slight bend to the east thanks to sea
breezes until the overall wind takes over.

After midnight into late Sunday...

gradual drop to predominantly ifr with timing off a bit in the
tafs possible. Mid of fzra pl especially interior ma ct through
the early morning hours, with all rain expected especially after
15z. Some light ice accums possible especially at terminals in
higher terrain. Mix of br dz will allow the ifr conditions to
linger into Sun evening. Some llws especially across SE ma.

Sun night...

improvement toVFR as br dz ends during the evening. However
winds will be gradually increasing through the overnight hours
with gusts as high as 30 kt out of the w-nw by sunrise mon.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf. If any pl fzra is
observed, it would be very short-lived, with little to no
accumulation expected.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf.

Outlook Monday through Thursday ...

Monday:VFR. Strong winds with gusts up to 60 kt.

Monday night:VFR. Strong winds with gusts up to 45 kt.

Tuesday through Tuesday night:VFR. Windy with gusts up to
35 kt.

Wednesday: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Breezy. Slight
chance shsn.

Wednesday night: mainlyVFR, with areas ifr possible. Breezy.

Chance shsn.

Thursday:VFR.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Sunday night ... High confidence.

Quiet boating weather continues into the evening hours, with
rain fog overspreading the waters mainly after midnight tonight.

Mix of rain fog and winds to near gales expected during the day
on Sunday, mainly out of the east.

Strong w-nw wind gusts begin Sunday night with storm gusts
possible as early as midnight Sun night mainly across the s
waters. This expands to all waters by Mon daybreak.

Outlook Monday through Thursday ...

Monday: moderate risk for storm force winds with gusts up to
50 kt. Rough seas up to 18 ft.

Monday night: moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up
to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 15 ft.

Tuesday: moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
40 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft.

Tuesday night: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
40 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Wednesday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of snow showers. Areas of visibility 1 to
3 nm.

Wednesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Chance of snow showers. Visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Thursday: winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... High wind watch from Sunday evening through Monday evening for
ctz002>004.

Winter weather advisory until 7 am est Sunday for ctz002>004.

Ma... High wind watch from Sunday evening through Monday evening for
maz002>024-026.

Winter weather advisory until 7 am est Sunday for maz005-006-
010>013.

Winter weather advisory until 10 am est Sunday for maz002>004-
008-009-026.

Ri... High wind watch from Sunday evening through Monday evening for
riz001>008.

Winter weather advisory until 7 am est Sunday for riz001.

Marine... Storm warning from 3 am to 7 pm est Monday for anz231>234-250-
251.

Storm warning from 9 am to 7 pm est Monday for anz230-236.

Storm warning from 1 am to 7 pm est Monday for anz235-237.

Storm warning from 11 pm Sunday to 7 pm est Monday for
anz254>256.

Synopsis... Nocera doody
near term... Belk nocera doody
short term... Doody
long term... Nocera
aviation... Nocera doody
marine... Nocera doody


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 8 mi65 min E 1 35°F 1027 hPa32°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 11 mi50 min 36°F 36°F1025.9 hPa (-1.7)
44090 19 mi50 min 36°F
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 22 mi40 min SE 5.8 G 7.8 37°F 36°F1026.4 hPa33°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 29 mi50 min 35°F 42°F
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 29 mi50 min ESE 12 G 12 36°F 1026 hPa (-2.4)
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 29 mi50 min ESE 2.9 G 4.1 36°F 1026.2 hPa (-1.8)
FRXM3 30 mi50 min 35°F 31°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 38 mi65 min SE 1.9 35°F 1026 hPa32°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 38 mi50 min E 1.9 G 4.1 1026.1 hPa (-1.9)
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 39 mi50 min E 5.1 G 6 35°F 38°F1026 hPa (-1.9)
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 39 mi50 min SE 2.9 G 6 37°F 38°F1026.2 hPa (-1.7)
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 39 mi50 min E 1.9 G 5.1 37°F 37°F1025.9 hPa (-1.8)
PVDR1 41 mi50 min E 1.9 G 2.9 35°F 1026.1 hPa (-1.8)31°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 42 mi50 min SE 1.9 G 2.9 1025.3 hPa (-2.1)
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 42 mi50 min E 4.1 G 5.1 1026.2 hPa (-2.0)
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 44 mi60 min SSE 7.8 G 9.7 36°F 1 ft1026.6 hPa (-1.9)28°F
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 46 mi60 min SSE 7.8 G 7.8 36°F 39°F1 ft1026 hPa (-1.7)31°F

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
Last
24hr
--
NW4
N3
N5
N4
NE2
N2
N4
N7
NE5
NE5
NE1
W4
SW5
SW6
SW7
SW8
S6
SE4
S1
SE1
SE2
E2
E3
1 day
ago
W3
SW11
W11
W10
W12
W6
W9
W8
W6
NW8
G11
NW10
G13
NW7
G10
NW14
G17
NW10
G14
W7
G10
N6
G11
NW9
N5
N5
N2
NW1
N4
NW4
--
2 days
ago
E9
G13
E4
E6
SE4
G8
SE4
NE4
NE5
N7
NW10
G13
NW7
NW7
W9
W6
SW3
NW11
G15
W13
G17
NW10
G13
W7
NW9
G12
W15
G20
W11
W11
G15
NW5
W3

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA5 mi55 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds32°F30°F93%1026.1 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA17 mi58 minN 010.00 miFair31°F27°F85%1026.3 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA18 mi54 minN 09.00 miFair31°F27°F85%1026 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA19 mi57 minN 010.00 miFair31°F30°F96%1026 hPa
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA19 mi57 minESE 310.00 miFair34°F33°F97%1026 hPa

Wind History from FMH (wind in knots)
-12
PM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
Last 24hrCalmNW3N4N5NW3NW4NW5NW6N4NE7NE6CalmCalmS4S9SW7SW7SW3SE4E3CalmCalmE4Calm
1 day agoW3W4W7W5
G11
W5W6NW7NW34N6
G14
NW85N7NE9
G14
NE11NE9NE6CalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoSE11SE10
G16
SE17
G24
SE20
G26
SE13
G21
SE15
G20
SE5N8NW9
G15
NW8
G13
NW10W12W14W13
G21
W18W12
G17
W10W9SW6W4NW7NW5NW5Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Barlows Landing, Pocasset Harbor, Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Barlows Landing
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:21 AM EST     -0.76 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:26 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:01 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 11:00 AM EST     4.47 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:37 PM EST     -0.59 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:25 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:24 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:26 PM EST     4.65 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
42.51-0.2-0.7-0.7-0.10.71.93.14.14.542.91.40.2-0.5-0.6-0.20.61.62.83.94.6

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:02 AM EST     -0.23 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:52 AM EST     -4.93 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 05:57 AM EST     0.22 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:26 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:58 AM EST     4.71 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 09:01 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 12:16 PM EST     -0.16 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:14 PM EST     -5.02 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 05:25 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:23 PM EST     0.02 knots Slack
Sat -- 09:27 PM EST     4.73 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 10:24 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
0.7-3.5-4.6-4.9-4.5-3.30.73.44.44.74.43.61.8-3-4.4-5-4.8-3.9-2.22.64.14.74.64.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (23,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.