Monday, August21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mentor, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:39AMSunset 8:16PM Monday August 21, 2017 11:53 AM EDT (15:53 UTC) Moonrise 5:23AMMoonset 7:22PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ147 Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh-lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 939 Am Edt Mon Aug 21 2017
This afternoon..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..Winds becoming south 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy in the evening...then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning... Then showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tuesday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the evening. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Wednesday through Friday. The water temperature off toledo is 76 degrees...off cleveland 74 degrees and off erie 74 degrees.
LEZ147 Expires:201708212015;;724363 FZUS51 KCLE 211339 NSHCLE Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland OH 939 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ147>149-212015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mentor, OH
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location: 41.69, -81.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 211350
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
950 am edt Mon aug 21 2017

Synopsis
High pressure over the region will continue to move east of the area
today. Low pressure will move northeast across the great lakes
Tuesday, forcing a cold front across the region Tuesday evening.

High pressure will build east across the region Wednesday through
the first half of the weekend.

Near term through Tuesday
Minor updates to the forecast this morning, mainly for pops, sky
cover and temperatures. Forecast remains mainly on track, but
adjusted some of the timing and location of pops this afternoon.

Still looks like the best period for convection to redevelop
across the area is the 2 pm and after timeframe, so removed most
of the pops before then. Cloud cover will remain pretty tricky,
as scattered cumulus convective remnants still linger around the
area. Much of the immediately upstream cirrus is thinning a bit,
but the thicker cirrus over il continues to slowly track
towards the area. Expecting cumulus to develop late
morning early afternoon ahead of the convection potential, but
generally went with a 40-70% sky cover from 12 pm to 6 pm.

Previous discussion...

nearly zonal flow will persist across the country today as a
weak shortwave trough moves east across the region. This feature
along with some limited moisture and day time heating will
support increasing CAPE through the afternoon. Can't rule out
the possibility for scattered showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon.

So, the threat for showers and thunderstorms could mess up viewing
of the long awaited solar eclipse this afternoon. I am thinking it
will be a 50 50 shot at actually having a good view of the moon sun
combo.

The convective activity will begin to wane later this
evening after sunset as shortwave pulls out to the east. The next
threat for showers and thunderstorms will increase through the day
Tuesday when the next cold front approaches the area. There are
some indications that a pre-frontal trough will develop ahead of the
cold front and could become the leading focusing mechanism to
produce the convection. This could mess up the timing of the
precipitation for a severe weather threat by stabilizing the
atmosphere through the morning and preventing any day time heating
from becoming dramatic.

Now, if the GFS is correct with the later timing of the front and
pre-frontal trough, then, we should see some heating in the east to
aid in destabilization. CAPE values will be approaching 2000 j kg
mainly in the east during the afternoon. The storm prediction
center already has the eastern two thirds of the area in a slight
risk for severe thunderstorms for tomorrow. Will hold off on
mentioning any severe threat in the forecast at this time due to the
issues mentioned above. Would rather use that terminology when
threat is imminent.

Otherwise, temperatures will be on the warm side again today. Highs
will be between 86 and 88 degrees across the area except 82 to 84 in
the east. The other issue is we will see dewpoint temperatures
begin to climb into the upper 60s to lower 70s later today and stay
there overnight. This will make for another muggy and sticky night.

Highs on Tuesday will be slightly cooler as pre-frontal convection
develops in the west. If we get Sun in the east, then I think
temperatures will be warmer than currently forecast.

Short term Tuesday night through Thursday night
As is often the case this time of year, not sure exactly where the
front will be located come Tuesday evening. The prefrontal trough
will certainly be well east of the area but the front could be
hanging back or perhaps the 850 mb front might not have crossed all
of northeast oh and northwest pa. Will keep a chance of
showers storms over the eastern half of the forecast area, mainly
before midnight.

High pressure is progged to build in quickly on Wednesday. H8 temps
are progged to drop to about +9c but the inversion is progged to be
low with plenty of subsidence. Not expecting any lake effect precip,
probably some clouds though, mainly early. It will be
noticeably cooler and less humid with highs in the 70s.

Most of the models suggest a trailing short wave will drop through
the trough aloft come Wednesday night into Thursday. Will have a
small chance of showers, mainly in the snowbelt, both primary and
secondary, given the shift to a north wind. Some areas may not get
out of the 60s on Thursday.

Long term Friday through Sunday
High pressure should build across the area late in the week.

Unseasonably cool temperatures will continue Friday, again with some
sections of extreme northeast oh and northwest pa not getting out of
the 60s. The anticyclonic flow should discourage any precip although
there may be some lake effect clouds on Friday. Saturday should be
sunny mostly sunny.

The high will begin to shift east of the area on Sunday. With an
east flow in the boundary layer, we will likely not warm up too
quickly. High clouds may begin to spread in from the west. Highs in
the 70s.

Aviation 12z Monday through Friday
Area of showers and thunderstorms moving east out indiana
expected to weaken as they move east but will be in the vicinity
of toledo and findlay. Otherwise, there is the possibility for
some widely scattered thunderstorm activity across the area
today. Will mention vcts across much of the area for today. Expecting
mainly middle and high clouds through the rest of the day into
tonight with the exception of the cumulus clouds that develop in
association with the showers and thunderstorms. Winds should
shift around to a south to southwest direction for today and
become light and variable again tonight.

Outlook... Non-vfr likely in scattered showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Marine
High pressure will drift off to the east today with a light south
flow on lake erie. A few thunderstorms will continue to develop
today into early tonight and mariners will have to be ALERT for
thunderstorm wind gusts and wind shifts in the vicinity of the
storms.

A strong cold front will cross lake erie later Tuesday. The
southwest flow will increase tonight and Tuesday morning ahead of
the front. Thunderstorms will be likely Tuesday. A small craft
advisory may be needed up the east lakeshore on Tuesday east of
cleveland, especially from around ashtabula and erie, pa eastward.

Winds should begin to diminish on Wednesday but with colder air
aloft and efficient mixing, the lake may remain stirred up on
Wednesday. High pressure and lighter winds are expected late in the
week.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Lombardy
near term... Greenawalt lombardy
short term... Kosarik
long term... Kosarik
aviation... Lombardy
marine... Kosarik


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 6 mi53 min W 9.9 G 13 78°F 1019.9 hPa (+0.0)69°F
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH 19 mi53 min WNW 4.1 G 5.1 77°F 67°F
45164 19 mi173 min WSW 7.8 73°F 74°F1020.1 hPa (-0.8)
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH 23 mi93 min W 11 G 13 76°F
45176 25 mi33 min WNW 5.8 G 5.8 76°F 76°F1 ft1020.1 hPa71°F
45169 26 mi33 min W 3.9 G 5.8 75°F 75°F1 ft71°F
CBLO1 - Conneaut Breakwater Light, OH 46 mi31 min SW 2.9 G 7 76°F 1020.3 hPa
LORO1 48 mi83 min 7 G 8

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cleveland / Cuyahoga, OH11 mi68 minW 810.00 miPartly Cloudy84°F68°F58%1021 hPa
Cleveland, Burke Lakefront Airport, OH22 mi60 minNW 510.00 miFair80°F68°F67%1019.5 hPa

Wind History from CGF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE5SW4NW10NE8N8NE8NE7E6SE5SE5SE8--------------SW5CalmW6W5W8NW8
1 day agoNW13W12NW11W13W13NW12N8N5CalmCalmCalm--------------SE4S10S10SW8SW7SW7
2 days ago----------------W9W8NW10--------------SW6W5SW4W7W10NW10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.