Thursday, January17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mentor, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:47AMSunset 5:23PM Thursday January 17, 2019 11:43 AM EST (16:43 UTC) Moonrise 2:08PMMoonset 3:55AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LEZ147 Expires:201901171515;;480905 Fzus51 Kcle 170840 Nshcle Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 340 Am Est Thu Jan 17 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez145>148-171515- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh-lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh- 340 Am Est Thu Jan 17 2019
Today..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of snow this afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. Snow and rain. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers and snow in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..North winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast 15 to 20 knots. Snow likely overnight. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Saturday through Monday. The water temperature off toledo is 32 degrees, off cleveland 36 degrees and off erie 34 degrees.
LEZ147


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mentor, OH
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 41.69, -81.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kcle 171220
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
720 am est Thu jan 17 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure over the southern plains will reach the central great
lakes tonight, then continue northeast across quebec on Friday.

Surface high pressure will build back into the area behind this
system on Friday. A stronger low pressure system will track
from the southern plains through the tennessee valley to the
east coast by Sunday bringing significant precipitation followed
by an arctic airmass to the region.

Near term through Friday
Mid-level moisture has shown an increasing trend on satellite
imagery ahead of the approaching shortwave. This trend is
expected to continue which should provide sufficient ice nuclei
for precip type to be all snow as it reaches NW ohio this
morning. Only minor tweaks to hourly grids with the early
morning update.

Previous discussion...

light precipitation is expected today and tonight ahead of a
stronger storm system that will impact the region over the weekend.

We are starting off dry early this morning with precipitation
noted upstream across central illinois on the north side of an
inverted surface trough. A broad surface low is over the
southern plains this morning and will track to near toledo by
00z, then continue across the eastern great lakes overnight.

Warm advection precipitation will develop over the area starting
late this morning in northwest ohio, reaching the i-77 corridor
by mid to late afternoon, and NW pennsylvania this evening.

Shallow lift develops in western areas this morning and can not
entirely rule out seeing a little freezing drizzle before the
deeper moisture and lift arrives shortly after. A few locations
have reported freezing drizzle back towards indianapolis and
that will be something to monitor this morning. Would like to
see an expansion of the freezing drizzle before adding to the
forecast, especially given the brief window but will be
something to keep an eye on after the morning commute. Most of
the area expected to see around an inch of snow. Backed off on
the accumulations a little across the south where a warm nose of
air is expected to be pulled north this evening and may cause
snow to mix with or change over to rain. Raised temperatures
into the lower 30s this evening with both the NAM rap bringing
the 0c isotherm at 925 mb up to the lakeshore. We may also get
into a situation where the deeper moisture departs first leaving
insufficient ice nuclei for snow before precipitation tapers
off. Expect surface temperatures to be above freezing while the
precipitation is ongoing so did not include any freezing rain
tonight but will be close.

Will carry a low chance of rain or snow showers in the snowbelt into
Friday although expecting to dry out rather quickly. Little
temperature rise, maybe 2-3 degrees with cold advection expected on
Friday.

Short term Friday night through Sunday
Low pressure will move toward the region from the southern
plains western gulf of mexico region Friday night with increased
warm advection. There will be some dry air in place ahead of it
which should slow the onset of the snow. However by Saturday morning
light snow should be occurring at most locations. This storm system
still has not moved onto the west coast of the us yet so still
plenty of room for error. ECMWF typically handles southwestern us
storm systems best and have leaned heavily on it. There is still
concern that this storm system could still end up being a bit
further south. We will continue to monitor this potential. So for
now we will go with our best estimate and say that 6+ inches of snow
will be possible near and east of a line from upper sandusky to
lorain. The heaviest snow may be near a mount gilead to youngstown
line but we will have to see if any warm air can sneak into these
areas and end up producing lighter amounts. So we will say it again
that there is still plenty of uncertainty with the track of this
storm system. Any wobble will have significant impacts up or down
with snow amounts.

Saturday will see highs in the 20s but gusty northeast winds will
make it feel like it is in the teens. Colder air begins to spill
into the region Saturday night into Sunday. Lows Saturday night
should be in the teens to as low as 10 degrees across NW ohio.

Sunday will not warm much with highs in the teens.

Long term Sunday night through Wednesday
In the wake of the storm system on Sunday the coldest air of the
season will begin to flow into the region. So some lake effect snow
will develop by Sunday afternoon and continue into at least Monday
morning. It will be a northerly flow which will likely favor a
multiple band setup. Drier arctic air will be over the region and
will have impacts on the amount of snow that can occur. It is a
given that there will be more snow during the period Sunday night
into Monday but confidence in a significant lake effect event are
low. The reasons against something significant are inversion heights
below 5000 feet and fairly short residence time of air parcels over
the lake to gather moisture due to the stronger winds. The snow that
does accumulate during this time period will be light and fluffy
compared to what occurs Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning.

High pressure will return to the region on Monday and should end the
lake effect snow showers by Monday evening across NE oh NW pa. This
area of high pressure should control the weather into Tuesday
morning. Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday look to be the timing for
the next storm system.

Sunday night will be the coldest night with most any locations that
clears out dropping below zero. Elsewhere it will still drop to the
single digits. Still cold on Monday with highs in the single digits
and teens. Warmer air arrives by Tuesday into Wednesday. Highs by
Wednesday afternoon should be in the 30s area wide.

Aviation 12z Thursday through Monday
MVFR ceilings starting to expand from the south and west with
all ohio sites falling to at least MVFR today with ifr likely
at southern and western terminals. Snow expected to arrive late
this morning as low pressure approaches from the southwest,
spreading east across the area through the evening. Snow begins
as early as 16z at tol fdy and 21z at cle. As the low moves
into northwest ohio this evening, warmer air is pulled into the
southern terminals and may cause snow to mix with rain. A
transition to drizzle is even possible as the deeper moisture
departs to the east tonight.

Southeast winds at 10 knots or less will eventually shift to southwest
and west behind the low tonight.

Outlook... Non-vfr continues into Friday then returns Saturday
and Sunday. Saturday into Sunday could potentially feature
moderate to heavy snowfall. Non-vfr possible in the snowbelt
Monday.

Marine
High pressure over southern quebec well drift eastward today. Weak
low pressure will move across lake erie Thursday night with a cold
front crossing the lake. A second surge of cool air will follow on
Friday. Saturday deep low pressure will move northeastward near or
just to the south of the ohio river valley reaching the middle
atlantic coast by Sunday morning. This will be the time period when
northeast winds will be the strongest. Small craft advisories are a
definite but will need to monitor for a low end gale. The gale
potential all hinges on the exact path of the low Saturday into
Saturday night. High pressure will build across the lake on
Monday.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Kec
near term... Kec
short term... Mullen
long term... Mullen
aviation... Kec
marine... Mullen


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 6 mi56 min SE 9.9 G 12
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH 19 mi62 min 28°F 1022.7 hPa17°F
CBLO1 - Conneaut Breakwater Light, OH 46 mi44 min SE 6 G 8 24°F 1024 hPa (-1.7)
LORO1 48 mi74 min SE 9.9 G 12 28°F

Wind History for Fairport, OH
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
Last
24hr
W20
G25
W24
NW16
N20
N17
G21
N16
N12
G15
N13
G17
N13
N10
NE12
NE10
G13
NE12
E10
G13
E11
E10
E10
E10
SE7
SE7
SE9
SE9
SE9
SE10
1 day
ago
SW11
G15
S10
G13
SW15
SW15
SW19
G26
SW16
G20
SW15
SW15
S12
G16
S10
G17
S14
G18
S13
G19
S14
G18
SW16
G21
SW17
G22
SW16
W17
W23
W26
G32
W31
SW24
SW20
SW23
SW21
2 days
ago
NW8
N7
NW5
NW3
G7
W5
W6
G10
W11
W13
G16
SW12
G16
W13
G17
SW11
SW10
G14
SW10
SW10
S9
S10
S10
G14
SW10
SW10
G13
SW11
G14
SW12
SW9
G12
SW9
G12
SW11
G14

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cleveland / Cuyahoga, OH11 mi59 minSE 1010.00 miOvercast27°F17°F69%1022.7 hPa
Cleveland, Burke Lakefront Airport, OH22 mi51 minSE 1010.00 miOvercast28°F19°F69%1023.5 hPa

Wind History from CGF (wind in knots)
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
Last 24hrW10W11W10
G18
N10
G18
N10NE9NE5NE7NE8NE8NE5E4--------------SE5SE7SE7SE10SE10
1 day agoSW10SW10SW13
G17
SW12
G19
SW12
G18
SW12
G18
SW8SW8S8S10S9
G15
SW9--------------W12W11SW11W10W9
2 days agoNW54N65W5W7W5W7SW7W5CalmCalm--------------SW6S6S6S6SW9

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (11,2,3,4)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.