Wednesday, June28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mentor, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:52AMSunset 9:05PM Wednesday June 28, 2017 3:04 AM EDT (07:04 UTC) Moonrise 10:05AMMoonset 11:31PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ147 Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh-lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 346 Pm Edt Tue Jun 27 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 pm edt this evening...
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 5 to 15 knots. A slight chance of showers early. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night..South winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning...then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Friday through Sunday. The water temperature off toledo is 70 degrees...off cleveland 69 degrees and off erie 71 degrees.
LEZ147 Expires:201706280215;;915807 FZUS51 KCLE 271946 NSHCLE Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland OH 346 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ146>149-280215-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mentor, OH
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location: 41.69, -81.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 280505
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
105 am edt Wed jun 28 2017

Synopsis
Surface high pressure will ridge northward across ohio overnight
then move east of the area on Wednesday. Low pressure will
track across the northern lakes Thursday dragging another front
across the area. The front will then stall and linger over the
local area into Friday.

Near term through today
A couple sprinkles trying to make it across the lake toward
erie. These look like they will fall apart before they reach
shore. Otherwise the only changes made were to hourly
temperature and cloud cover grids to reflect current trends.

Previous discussion...

the existing cumulus field will dissipate during the evening
leaving skies mainly clear overnight. Tomorrow will also be a
quiet day with temperatures finally starting to warm back up.

Have stayed to the cool side of guidance for highs especially in
the south where it remains fairly wet. Have made some changes
for the Wednesday night period. The models continue to show
precip remaining north of the area through daybreak Thursday.

This scenario has been consistent from day to day and not sure
why it keeps sneaking back into the forecast. Have gone ahead
and trimmed back chances and only the very northern end of the
area will see chances prior to 12z Thursday. Have used a blend
of guidance temps for Wednesday and Wednesday night. If clouds
are slow to arrive Wednesday night then temps in the southeast
may need to be lowered some.

Short term tonight through Friday night
A weak front will be over the northern third of the area Thursday.

This may cause a few showers or storms to form Thursday morning near
lake erie into northwest ohio. However, the better chance for
thunderstorms will come Thursday afternoon as the combination of
lift from the front, increasing instability from daytime heating,
and an approaching shortwave trigger thunderstorm development.

Severe storms will be possible on Thursday as instability on the
order of 1500 to 2000 j kg of MLCAPE and 0-6km bulk shear of 30-40
knots form a favorable environment. Damaging winds look to be the
primary threat followed by hail and perhaps an isolated tornado
along the frontal boundary. The amount of morning convection cloud
cover will determine how substantial the severe threat will be. The
more cloud cover precipitation early in the period, the lesser the
threat for severe storms. Irregardless of the severe threat, storm
motion will be out of the west southwest, which will be nearly
parallel with the boundary. This could lead to some flooding with
training thunderstorms. Still some uncertainty this far out, so stay
tuned for more details.

A chance for storms will continue Thursday night into Friday as a
large trough begins to move in from the west. A cold front will
swing through from the west late Friday into Friday night. Depending
on the exact timing of the cold front and the amount of
precipitation along it, a threat for severe storms could be a
possibility once again during Friday afternoon evening. The cold
front will be east of the area come Saturday morning with at least a
brief window of drier weather behind it. However, by Saturday
afternoon we may see storms develop once again with daytime heating
and cooler temperatures aloft leading to sufficient instability.

Seasonable temperatures are expected through the short term.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
Long term period will be characterized with near normal temperatures
with an upper trough swinging through the great lakes Sunday, but
the upper pattern remaining fairly zonal over the local area through
the period. Lingering showers are possible Sunday, mainly east, with
the departing great lakes trough. After mainly dry conditions Sunday
night, periods of shower thunderstorm chances return Monday through
Tuesday as a few disturbances move through the upper flow.

Aviation 06z Wednesday through Sunday
Vfr conditions will continue through the forecast period with
high pressure over the upper ohio valley. Some clouds over lake
erie due to weak surface trough will move east of area this
morning. After that cirrus shield from storms to the west will
overspread the area.

Outlook... Non-VFR conditions possible in thunderstorms
Thursday into Friday.

Marine
Winds will turn southerly Wednesday and remain rather weak.

Winds could increase to around 15 knots in the afternoon across
the western basin. Southerly winds will increase Wednesday night
at 15 to 20 knots. While a small craft advisory is possible,
the southerly nature of the winds suggest one is not expected at
this time. Southwest winds may increase a touch more Thursday,
so a small craft advisory may be needed. Southwest winds of 10
to 15 knots will then continue through Saturday.

Expect decent chances for thunderstorms Thursday through
Saturday.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Kubina
near term... Kubina mullen
short term... Mottice
long term... Greenawalt
aviation... Djb
marine... Mottice


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 6 mi52 min SSW 9.9 G 13 62°F 1018.1 hPa46°F
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH 19 mi52 min S 2.9 G 6 62°F 43°F
45164 19 mi64 min W 21 64°F 67°F1018 hPa (+0.0)
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH 23 mi104 min S 5.1 G 8 59°F
45176 25 mi34 min WSW 16 G 18 65°F 71°F2 ft1018.6 hPa52°F
45169 26 mi34 min WSW 14 G 18 66°F 68°F2 ft1019 hPa54°F
CBLO1 - Conneaut Breakwater Light, OH 46 mi64 min SSW 11 G 14 61°F 1018.3 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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N5
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W13
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G28
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G18
NW8
G11
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NW2
W3

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cleveland / Cuyahoga, OH11 mi4.3 hrsS 510.00 miA Few Clouds61°F44°F55%1019 hPa
Cleveland, Burke Lakefront Airport, OH22 mi71 minSSW 15 G 2110.00 miFair65°F44°F47%1018.3 hPa

Wind History from CGF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--------------NW8W8W6NW12W13NW10
G18
NW12W10W10W10W12NW14W8W6SW4S4S5
1 day ago--------------SW6SW8W12W8W12NW15
G20
NW15
G22
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G24
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G20
W10NW14W9W12W9S10SW15
G25
W10
2 days ago--------------SW7SW8W15W14W16W16
G22
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NW15
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NW15
G25
W9NW12W10--W7SW4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.