Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mentor, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 5:07PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 3:32 AM EST (08:32 UTC) Moonrise 1:02PMMoonset 11:08PM Illumination 37% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ147 Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh-lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 918 Pm Est Tue Nov 13 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday morning...
Overnight..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots. A slight chance of snow showers. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 5 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Wednesday night..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Rain and snow likely in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Friday through Sunday. The water temperature off toledo is 43 degrees, off cleveland 49 degrees and off erie 48 degrees.
LEZ147 Expires:201811140915;;269030 FZUS51 KCLE 140218 NSHCLE Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland OH 918 PM EST Tue Nov 13 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ145>149-140915-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mentor, OH
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location: 41.69, -81.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 140458
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1158 pm est Tue nov 13 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will build in from the west over the lower great
lakes by Wednesday. The high will move northeast to maine by
Thursday. Low pressure will move northeast to the ohio valley by
Thursday and then shift to the east coast by Thursday night.

High pressure will build up the appalachian mountains Saturday
with a cold front moving east across the local area Saturday
night.

Near term through Wednesday
Updated forecast to denote diminishing lake effect showers
through the next few hours and cooler lows in the northwest. As
drier air filters into the area with high pressure lake enhanced
snow showers are showing signs of weakening. This trend will
continue the next few hours until they dissipate entirely. For
temperatures, areas west of the i-71 corridor will likely see
some breaking of the clouds as very dry mid level air moves in
(rh~15%). With the high sliding over western oh some areas could
see winds decouple around daybreak, mainly in the toledo region
and west. This could support temperatures around 20f. Elsewhere
the combination of more clouds and mixing will keep temperatures
in the mid to upper 20s.

Original... Satellite imagery and regional radars shows lake
enhanced and lake effect clouds and scattered snow showers this
afternoon. 850mb temps advecting in over the region are -10c to
-12c. These colder temperatures aloft are causing about 50 to
100 j kg of MUCAPE and instability. Using area twdrs and mosaic
imagery shows bands of light snow developing over the lake this
afternoon and impacting the primary snowbelt region east of the
cleveland area. We followed the guidance from the hrrr and
namnest closely with several bands expected to develop and
impact far northeastern ohio into northwestern pennsylvania. At
this time, we will mention the possibility of 1 to 2 inches
across NE ohio and 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher amounts
across crawford and erie counties in pennsylvania. At this time,
we will not issue an advisory for the primary snowbelt areas.

But if more snow is anticipated this evening, a quick headline
may need to be issued.

Lake effect cloud cover will hold on for downwind of the lake
this evening and overnight with so eroding of the clouds during
the day on Wednesday. Coldest temperatures will be closer to
western and central ohio tonight with readings down to near 20
degrees. Tomorrows highs will be mostly depending on the amount
of sunshine but mid 30s are expected across much of the area.

All lake effect snow showers will be done and fair skies late on
Wednesday.

Short term Wednesday night through Friday night
Little change in the short term forecast. Coastal low will
develop and track up the east coast Thursday, lifting a trough
across the forecast area. Nice WAA pattern setting up. Expect
some light snow to develop from the south in the morning,
gradually changing to rain over entire area by late afternoon.

Potential for a brief period of sleet or freezing rain as precip
transition with overrunning. Bulk of the precip will have
exited the area by daybreak Friday as low tracks into new
england. Potential for some lake effect snow showers in the snow
belt on Friday.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
Below normal conditions continue through the long term
forecast. Models continue to differ on the timing of the next
cold front. The ECMWF moves the weak front through on Saturday
while the GFS holds off until late Saturday night into Sunday.

With so much doubt in the timing will continue with low chance
pops Saturday into Sunday.

Aviation 06z Wednesday through Sunday
For the next few hours pockets of MVFR ceilings will be possible
as moisture remains trapped under a sinking inversion. Dry air
moving into the area will gradually scatter out clouds
overnight into Wednesday morning withVFR conditions. Winds
remain out of the wnw but speeds will lower throughout the taf
period.

Outlook... Non-vfr possible Thursday and Friday.

Marine
Updated... Winds a bit higher on the west end than earlier
anticipated so issued a small craft advisory. Winds will be
coming down through the early overnight period so will end at
4am.

Original... Small craft advisory will continue into tomorrow
with NW flow of 15 to 25 knots. Winds diminish from the west
tomorrow as the low tracks across quebec, and high pressure
builds over the lower lakes. Winds shift to the S to SE tomorrow
night as the high moves east of the lake. Another coastal low
develops and deepens to 29.40 inches off the mid atlantic coast
by Friday morning, with a trough across the lower lakes. A small
craft advisory will be needed.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 am est Wednesday for lez145>149.

Small craft advisory until 4 am est Wednesday for lez143-144.

Synopsis... Griffin
near term... Jamison
short term... Djb
long term... Djb
aviation... Jamison
marine... Djb tk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 6 mi33 min WNW 18 G 21 30°F 39°F1029.8 hPa (+1.7)21°F
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH 19 mi33 min 30°F 48°F1030.2 hPa (+1.7)17°F
CBLO1 - Conneaut Breakwater Light, OH 46 mi33 min NW 20 G 28 30°F 1028.8 hPa (+1.7)
LORO1 48 mi63 min NW 19 G 30 28°F

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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G11
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cleveland / Cuyahoga, OH11 mi4.8 hrsWNW 11 G 1920.00 miOvercast32°F19°F60%1027.8 hPa
Cleveland, Burke Lakefront Airport, OH22 mi40 minNW 16 G 2210.00 miOvercast30°F19°F64%1030.9 hPa

Wind History from CGF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--------------NW11N9N10N14NW10
G15
NW15NW15NW15NW15NW12
G21
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1 day ago--------------E4S5S5S9S5SE4S5W5SW5N4CalmCalmCalmCalmNE4CalmS6
2 days ago--------------SW8SW7S8S10S10S10SW8S7S6SW6SW4S5S5S5S4S3S4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.