Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mentor, OH
March 28, 2024 7:03 PM EDT (23:03 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:12 AM Sunset 7:48 PM Moonrise 10:31 PM Moonset 7:33 AM |
LEZ147 Expires:202403290215;;777908 Fzus51 Kcle 282007 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 407 pm edt Thu mar 28 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez145>147-290215- vermilion to avon point oh-avon point to willowick oh- willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh- 407 pm edt Thu mar 28 2024
Tonight - West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday - Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night - Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. A chance of rain showers overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Rain showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Sunday through Tuesday.
the water temperature off toledo is 44 degrees, off cleveland 41 degrees, and off erie 41 degrees.
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 407 pm edt Thu mar 28 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez145>147-290215- vermilion to avon point oh-avon point to willowick oh- willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh- 407 pm edt Thu mar 28 2024
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Sunday through Tuesday.
the water temperature off toledo is 44 degrees, off cleveland 41 degrees, and off erie 41 degrees.
LEZ100
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Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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FXUS61 KCLE 282018 AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 418 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure remains in control through Friday. Weak low pressure moves east across the area Friday night into early Saturday. High pressure briefly wedges in from the north on Sunday before a large low pressure lifts out of the Plains and into the southern Great Lakes Monday and Tuesday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
The combination of modest mid-level isentropic lift and a bit of divergence in the left-exit quadrant of a jet streak will bring a mid-level cloud deck and perhaps a few sprinkles across our southwestern zones tonight, especially from Findlay to Canton points south. Any rain quite light with limited moisture. It will remain mostly clear and dry farther north. Lows will range from the upper 20s to mid 30s, warmest south due to more clouds.
Plenty of sunshine for Friday with a bit of a west-northwest breeze. Highs will range from the mid 50s to near 60 from Toledo to Mansfield points southwest to the lower 40s in Northwest PA. In between, have highs on either side of 50 for Cleveland-Akron-Youngstown.
A shortwave and associated low pressure begin approaching from the west Friday night. We'll start mainly clear early, however, strong warm/moist advection will occur overtop of a retreating cool and dry low-level airmass, leading to moist isentropic lift beneath divergent flow aloft. This will cause clouds to increase from the west overnight with rain showers spreading in late as well. Far Northeast OH and Northwest PA likely see rain hold off until around or shortly after sunrise Saturday. With a bit of instability approaching from the southwest there may be a rumble of thunder late Friday night, though for now kept it out of the forecast until the day Saturday. Early lows Friday night will range from the upper 20s and lower 30s in far Northeast OH and Northwest PA to the lower 40s in Northwest and Central OH.
Temperatures will hold steady or rise overnight. It's likely that it warms enough for precip to arrive as rain, though it may be close in interior Northwest PA if precip arrives faster.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
This weekend will be the beginning of an active pattern that could potentially be very wet for the early part of next week. A large mid/upper trough and associated closed low will swing into California Saturday then will continue to progress through the Rockies through Sunday night. This will force heights to gradually rise across the central and eastern CONUS this weekend, setting up a broadening southwesterly flow pattern from a wide open Gulf as mid/upper ridging dominates by early next week and strong surface high pressure sits near Bermuda. This pattern will strengthen a baroclinic zone between the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes, and shortwave energy emanating from the western CONUS trough will cause ripples of low pressure to move along the boundary leading to multiple rounds of showers.
Starting off Saturday, the first upper jet max and associated shortwave will move through the southern Great Lakes. Guidance is in good agreement that the surface low will track from southern Michigan across Lake Erie or southern Ontario Province during the afternoon. Warm air advection and isentropic ascent will lead to widespread showers spreading into the region from west to east early Saturday morning. There will be some elevated instability, especially over the southern counties, so added some thunder into areas along the US 30 corridor in the afternoon. QPF does not look overly heavy with this first round, but it could act as a primer depending on how much elevated convection can manage to develop which would lead to locally heavier rain. At this time, most areas look to see 0.25 to 0.50 inches. The showers will mostly end from west to east Saturday evening into Saturday night as the support pulls away, with weak surface high pressure nosing in from the central Great Lakes late Saturday night and Sunday. This will allow the cold front behind the Saturday system to push south into the Ohio Valley, effectively pushing the baroclinic zone south of the area. However, due to some uncertainly with the exact placement, kept chance to slight chance PoPs over the southern areas Saturday night into Sunday. Most areas will be dry.
The boundary will already be making a slow return northward Sunday night as the next piece of energy comes out of the western mid/upper trough, with the resulting warm air advection and isentropic ascent gradually pushing showers back into the region. Have PoPs expanding Sunday night.
Highs Saturday will range from the low/mid 50s in NE Ohio to the low/mid 60s in NW and north central Ohio. Cooler for Sunday with highs in the low/mid 50s. Areas near the lakeshore may stay in the upper 40s due to onshore flow. Lows Saturday night will cool into the upper 30s/low 40s, with upper 30s/mid 40s Sunday night.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As mentioned above, the boundary will be gradually returning northward as a warm front Sunday night and Monday as additional shortwave energy progresses through the region. The deepening warm air advection and isentropic ascent could lead to persistent showers and perhaps elevated convection much of the day depending on how fast the boundary can move north. Pattern recognition suggests that the boundary will struggle to lift north of Lake Erie, so likely to categorical PoPs seem warranted all day. By Monday night and Tuesday, there is growing consensus among the deterministic GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian that the main piece of the mid/upper trough over the Rockies will eject into the Plains while phasing with a strong northern stream mid/upper trough dropping into the Upper Midwest.
This leads to a deepening surface low tracking from the central Plains into the Ohio Valley or southern Great Lakes Tuesday into Tuesday night, but differences in the timing and degree of phasing results in differences in the surface low track. The latest GFS tracks the deep low through the western and southern Great Lakes Tuesday into Tuesday night which would pull the entire region into the warm sector, giving a break from the rain Monday night into Tuesday followed by severe weather potential late Tuesday. However, the deterministic Canadian and ECMWF both have tracks through the Ohio Valley which would keep the boundary farther south and place at least part of our area in a greater risk for persistent heavy rainfall Monday night into Tuesday night. At this time, WPC QPF of 1- 2 inches across most of the region looks reasonable given the uncertainty. Depending on how much rain falls Sunday night and Monday and what ultimately happens with the main wave Tuesday into Tuesday night will determine how significant the flooding potential will be. At this time, most rivers will likely rise into at least action stage given the multiple rounds of rain between Saturday and Tuesday.
Deep troughing looks to dig across the Great Lakes and NE U.S. in the wake of the system Tuesday night through Thursday as the cyclone becomes vertically stacked somewhere over New England. This will lead to a shot of late season cold air with wraparound rain/snow showers Tuesday night into Thursday as the cyclone sits and spins over the New England area. Even mild winters don't like to end in the Great Lakes and Northeast U.S!
Highs in the 55-60 range Monday and Tuesday will cool into the mid/upper 40s Wednesday and upper 40s/low 50s Thursday.
AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Will watch for a mid-level cloud deck (likely between 5000-7000 feet) to slide across central OH, perhaps affecting FDY, MFD, and CAK later this evening into the overnight for a few hours. Can not entirely rule out some sprinkles out of these clouds, though greater odds for that will likely stay just south of FDY-CAK.
West winds of 10-15 knots with gusts 20-25 knots continue this afternoon. Winds diminish to less than 5 knots tonight. Winds increase to 6 to 10 knots out of the west on Friday.
Outlook...Non-VFR likely in showers and/or lower ceilings on Saturday, then lingering across NE OH into NW PA into Sunday morning. Additional non-VFR likely Monday into Tuesday.
Thunderstorms possible Saturday afternoon/evening and on Monday.
MARINE
Quiet conditions are expected on the lake into next week. W to NW winds of 5-15 knots tonight will become W Friday then light and variable Friday night. S to SW winds of 10-15 knots will then develop Saturday, becoming N to NW Saturday night and NE Sunday while decreasing to 5-15 knots. E to NE winds will then gradually increase Monday into Tuesday as strong low pressure approaches the lake, with 15-25 knot speeds possible by Tuesday, so Small Craft headlines are possible then.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 418 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure remains in control through Friday. Weak low pressure moves east across the area Friday night into early Saturday. High pressure briefly wedges in from the north on Sunday before a large low pressure lifts out of the Plains and into the southern Great Lakes Monday and Tuesday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
The combination of modest mid-level isentropic lift and a bit of divergence in the left-exit quadrant of a jet streak will bring a mid-level cloud deck and perhaps a few sprinkles across our southwestern zones tonight, especially from Findlay to Canton points south. Any rain quite light with limited moisture. It will remain mostly clear and dry farther north. Lows will range from the upper 20s to mid 30s, warmest south due to more clouds.
Plenty of sunshine for Friday with a bit of a west-northwest breeze. Highs will range from the mid 50s to near 60 from Toledo to Mansfield points southwest to the lower 40s in Northwest PA. In between, have highs on either side of 50 for Cleveland-Akron-Youngstown.
A shortwave and associated low pressure begin approaching from the west Friday night. We'll start mainly clear early, however, strong warm/moist advection will occur overtop of a retreating cool and dry low-level airmass, leading to moist isentropic lift beneath divergent flow aloft. This will cause clouds to increase from the west overnight with rain showers spreading in late as well. Far Northeast OH and Northwest PA likely see rain hold off until around or shortly after sunrise Saturday. With a bit of instability approaching from the southwest there may be a rumble of thunder late Friday night, though for now kept it out of the forecast until the day Saturday. Early lows Friday night will range from the upper 20s and lower 30s in far Northeast OH and Northwest PA to the lower 40s in Northwest and Central OH.
Temperatures will hold steady or rise overnight. It's likely that it warms enough for precip to arrive as rain, though it may be close in interior Northwest PA if precip arrives faster.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
This weekend will be the beginning of an active pattern that could potentially be very wet for the early part of next week. A large mid/upper trough and associated closed low will swing into California Saturday then will continue to progress through the Rockies through Sunday night. This will force heights to gradually rise across the central and eastern CONUS this weekend, setting up a broadening southwesterly flow pattern from a wide open Gulf as mid/upper ridging dominates by early next week and strong surface high pressure sits near Bermuda. This pattern will strengthen a baroclinic zone between the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes, and shortwave energy emanating from the western CONUS trough will cause ripples of low pressure to move along the boundary leading to multiple rounds of showers.
Starting off Saturday, the first upper jet max and associated shortwave will move through the southern Great Lakes. Guidance is in good agreement that the surface low will track from southern Michigan across Lake Erie or southern Ontario Province during the afternoon. Warm air advection and isentropic ascent will lead to widespread showers spreading into the region from west to east early Saturday morning. There will be some elevated instability, especially over the southern counties, so added some thunder into areas along the US 30 corridor in the afternoon. QPF does not look overly heavy with this first round, but it could act as a primer depending on how much elevated convection can manage to develop which would lead to locally heavier rain. At this time, most areas look to see 0.25 to 0.50 inches. The showers will mostly end from west to east Saturday evening into Saturday night as the support pulls away, with weak surface high pressure nosing in from the central Great Lakes late Saturday night and Sunday. This will allow the cold front behind the Saturday system to push south into the Ohio Valley, effectively pushing the baroclinic zone south of the area. However, due to some uncertainly with the exact placement, kept chance to slight chance PoPs over the southern areas Saturday night into Sunday. Most areas will be dry.
The boundary will already be making a slow return northward Sunday night as the next piece of energy comes out of the western mid/upper trough, with the resulting warm air advection and isentropic ascent gradually pushing showers back into the region. Have PoPs expanding Sunday night.
Highs Saturday will range from the low/mid 50s in NE Ohio to the low/mid 60s in NW and north central Ohio. Cooler for Sunday with highs in the low/mid 50s. Areas near the lakeshore may stay in the upper 40s due to onshore flow. Lows Saturday night will cool into the upper 30s/low 40s, with upper 30s/mid 40s Sunday night.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As mentioned above, the boundary will be gradually returning northward as a warm front Sunday night and Monday as additional shortwave energy progresses through the region. The deepening warm air advection and isentropic ascent could lead to persistent showers and perhaps elevated convection much of the day depending on how fast the boundary can move north. Pattern recognition suggests that the boundary will struggle to lift north of Lake Erie, so likely to categorical PoPs seem warranted all day. By Monday night and Tuesday, there is growing consensus among the deterministic GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian that the main piece of the mid/upper trough over the Rockies will eject into the Plains while phasing with a strong northern stream mid/upper trough dropping into the Upper Midwest.
This leads to a deepening surface low tracking from the central Plains into the Ohio Valley or southern Great Lakes Tuesday into Tuesday night, but differences in the timing and degree of phasing results in differences in the surface low track. The latest GFS tracks the deep low through the western and southern Great Lakes Tuesday into Tuesday night which would pull the entire region into the warm sector, giving a break from the rain Monday night into Tuesday followed by severe weather potential late Tuesday. However, the deterministic Canadian and ECMWF both have tracks through the Ohio Valley which would keep the boundary farther south and place at least part of our area in a greater risk for persistent heavy rainfall Monday night into Tuesday night. At this time, WPC QPF of 1- 2 inches across most of the region looks reasonable given the uncertainty. Depending on how much rain falls Sunday night and Monday and what ultimately happens with the main wave Tuesday into Tuesday night will determine how significant the flooding potential will be. At this time, most rivers will likely rise into at least action stage given the multiple rounds of rain between Saturday and Tuesday.
Deep troughing looks to dig across the Great Lakes and NE U.S. in the wake of the system Tuesday night through Thursday as the cyclone becomes vertically stacked somewhere over New England. This will lead to a shot of late season cold air with wraparound rain/snow showers Tuesday night into Thursday as the cyclone sits and spins over the New England area. Even mild winters don't like to end in the Great Lakes and Northeast U.S!
Highs in the 55-60 range Monday and Tuesday will cool into the mid/upper 40s Wednesday and upper 40s/low 50s Thursday.
AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Will watch for a mid-level cloud deck (likely between 5000-7000 feet) to slide across central OH, perhaps affecting FDY, MFD, and CAK later this evening into the overnight for a few hours. Can not entirely rule out some sprinkles out of these clouds, though greater odds for that will likely stay just south of FDY-CAK.
West winds of 10-15 knots with gusts 20-25 knots continue this afternoon. Winds diminish to less than 5 knots tonight. Winds increase to 6 to 10 knots out of the west on Friday.
Outlook...Non-VFR likely in showers and/or lower ceilings on Saturday, then lingering across NE OH into NW PA into Sunday morning. Additional non-VFR likely Monday into Tuesday.
Thunderstorms possible Saturday afternoon/evening and on Monday.
MARINE
Quiet conditions are expected on the lake into next week. W to NW winds of 5-15 knots tonight will become W Friday then light and variable Friday night. S to SW winds of 10-15 knots will then develop Saturday, becoming N to NW Saturday night and NE Sunday while decreasing to 5-15 knots. E to NE winds will then gradually increase Monday into Tuesday as strong low pressure approaches the lake, with 15-25 knot speeds possible by Tuesday, so Small Craft headlines are possible then.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH | 6 mi | 46 min | W 8G | 43°F | 44°F | 29.99 | 29°F | |
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH | 19 mi | 46 min | WNW 5.1G | 42°F | 45°F | 29.99 | ||
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH | 23 mi | 94 min | W 11G | |||||
ASBO1 | 33 mi | 64 min | W 7G | |||||
CBLO1 - Conneaut Breakwater Light, OH | 46 mi | 64 min | SW 6 | |||||
LORO1 | 48 mi | 34 min | NW 1.9G | 43°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KLNN LAKE COUNTY EXECUTIVE,OH | 3 sm | 28 min | W 07 | 10 sm | Clear | 43°F | 23°F | 45% | 30.03 | |
KCGF CUYAHOGA COUNTY,OH | 12 sm | 78 min | WNW 12 | 10 sm | Clear | 45°F | 25°F | 45% | 30.04 | |
KBKL BURKE LAKEFRONT,OH | 22 sm | 70 min | NW 06 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 45°F | 32°F | 61% | 30.03 |
Cleveland, OH,
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