Sunday, May26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mentor, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:55AMSunset 8:49PM Sunday May 26, 2019 4:55 AM EDT (08:55 UTC) Moonrise 1:20AMMoonset 11:55AM Illumination 52% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ147 Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh-lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 805 Pm Edt Sat May 25 2019
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms this evening. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..West winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..Light and variable winds. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Tuesday through Thursday. The water temperature off toledo is 60 degrees, off cleveland 55 degrees and off erie 56 degrees.
LEZ147 Expires:201905260230;;460807 FZUS51 KCLE 260005 NSHCLE Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland OH 805 PM EDT Sat May 25 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ147>149-260230-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mentor, OH
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location: 41.69, -81.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 260808
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
408 am edt Sun may 26 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will slowly push south across the area late this
afternoon, settling south of the area by Monday morning. The
front will remain between the southern great lakes and ohio
valley through the day Monday before lifting north through the
area Monday night into Tuesday, remaining north of the area
through midweek. An unsettled weather pattern will remain over
the region much of next week.

Near term through Monday
Immediate focus this morning is upstream convection across in
moving eastward towards western oh. This activity, associated
with an MCV in a broad westerly mid level flow regime and in the
vicinity of the right entrance region of a northward retreating
upper jet streak, is persisting eastward with a few severe wind
reports in far western in. However, hi-res guidance suggests
this activity to slowly diminish in intensity as it moves into
an increasingly stable environment. This should result in more
disorganized scattered shower and thunder activity moving into
the southwest part of the area this morning, quickly moving
eastward across the area through midday. The highest pops will
be across the southwest part of the forecast area, but the more
organized storm activity and potential for stronger convection
should dive south of the forecast area towards central southern
oh where better instability resides.

A stronger MCV mid level energy will eject eastward out of the
mississippi valley this morning and move through
central southern oh this afternoon. There should be a bit of a
lull in precip activity late morning midday through mid
afternoon, which will allow for weak modest destabilization
ahead of a southward advancing cold front approaching the area.

500 mb jet MAX will streak eastward through the southern great
lakes this afternoon, allowing for good deep layer bulk shear.

The main limiting factor to severe thunderstorm potential
across the area this afternoon is the amount of instability
realized with the morning convective cluster delaying minimizing
destabilization. There is also an incoherent surface forcing
mechanism with the synoptic surface front best low level
convergence well north of the area during this time. However,
expect scattered storms to fire, which pose a limited severe
thunderstorm risk across the area. Poor mid level lapse rates
will also be entrenched across the region. Agree with the early
morning SPC day 1 outlook with the best severe chances south of
the area today where better low level lapse rates, instability,
and surface forcing with the probable outflow boundary from the
morning convection coincide. Kept pops generally in the chance
range for the area, but opted for some low likely pops south,
especially this afternoon. Precip chances diminish quickly after
03z, with the surface front pushing south of the area by 06z-
09z. Monday will be dry across the area through late afternoon
with brief ridging drifting across the area before the frontal
boundary returns northeast towards the area by Monday night.

For temperatures today, went close to the higher side of
guidance, with upper 70s to around 80 for most of the area. Lows
tonight will be in the low 50s to low 60s. Highs Monday will be
int he low 70s near the lake to mid upper 70s inland.

Short term Monday night through Wednesday night
Warm front will be returning to northern ohio by Monday evening with
increasing chances of showers thunderstorms. The frontal boundary
will then remain across the region with additional chances of
showers thunderstorms through Wednesday night. May need to watch for
some locally heavy rainfall with the periods of rain moving across
the region with each ripple of low pressure in the middle level
flow. The strongest thunderstorms may occur on Tuesday if the model
timing is correct. Trying to time these ripples will be difficult
with each model handling them differently.

Tuesday and Wednesday should see highs range from the mid 70s to mid
80s.

Long term Thursday through Saturday
Models indicate that a stronger cold front will sweep across the
area on Thursday with a round of stronger thunderstorms possible.

High pressure then builds into the central great lakes by Friday
morning and may persist into Saturday. So a couple days with no
mention of showers thunderstorms seems like the forecast to go with
for now. Highs through the long term should be very close to
seasonal averages.

Aviation 06z Sunday through Thursday
Vfr conditions expected during the early part of the period,
however an upstream wave producing convection near klaf will
track through the area this morning. For the most part, expected
the convection to be in a weakening state, so have opted for
vcsh wording vs. Vcts, with confidence in thunder too low this
morning. Another wave tracks across the region this
afternoon evening as a cold front tracks south into the area.

This has a better chance to produce tsra given daytime heating
and the approaching surface forcing, however too uncertain at
this point for pinning down the exact area, timing and coverage
of any storms. Hope to have a better handle on tsra potential at
the terminals by the 12z TAF issuance. Threat for tsra shra
should end around or shortly after the 00z-03z timeframe.

Westerly winds will persist into the afternoon, but will veer
more northerly by this evening as the front moves through, but
winds will be light at this point.

Outlook... Non-vfr possible for periods of time through Thursday,
primarily centered around rounds of convection.

Marine
Cold front will cross the lake by the afternoon then stall across
southern ohio overnight. Strongest winds will be just ahead of the
front from the southwest west then shift around to the east
overnight as high pressure moves east across the central great lakes
reaching western quebec by Monday morning. A frontal boundary will
then meander near lake erie Monday through Wednesday. Southwesterly
winds may increase to around 15 knots on Wednesday which may build
waves to 2 to 4 feet.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Greenawalt
near term... Greenawalt
short term... Mm
long term... Mm
aviation... Greenawalt
marine... Mm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 6 mi55 min SW 11 G 15 69°F 62°F1014 hPa (-0.4)65°F
45164 19 mi55 min 54°F1 ft
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH 19 mi55 min SSW 5.1 G 8.9 71°F 58°F1014.2 hPa (-0.6)63°F
45176 25 mi35 min N 9.7 G 16 66°F 57°F1 ft
45169 26 mi35 min WSW 7.8 G 9.7 62°F 55°F1 ft1016.8 hPa
LORO1 48 mi85 min SW 14 G 15 72°F

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cleveland / Cuyahoga, OH11 mi60 minSSW 810.00 miFair69°F64°F85%1015.2 hPa
Cleveland, Burke Lakefront Airport, OH22 mi62 minSSW 910.00 miFair73°F64°F74%1014 hPa

Wind History from CGF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE6S11S12
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SW9----SW8SW6SW7SW7
1 day agoCalmCalmW4CalmN7N5NW5NE4CalmNW5NW6NE3CalmE4SE4NE4E4SE5SE6E4SE8SE8SE8Calm
2 days agoS7S7SW12W9
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W9NW6W7NW6W7W6Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.