Saturday, July21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Marion Center, MA

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Sunrise 5:26AMSunset 8:13PM Saturday July 21, 2018 9:24 PM EDT (01:24 UTC) Moonrise 2:59PMMoonset 1:01AM Illumination 67% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ234 Buzzards Bay- 716 Pm Edt Sat Jul 21 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday evening...
Tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers this evening, then showers with a chance of tstms after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Patchy fog. Showers with a chance of tstms. Some tstms may produce heavy rainfall. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers likely.
Thu night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Pm Edt Sat Jul 21 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Low pres off the mid-atlantic coast will lift north tonight and Sunday bringing a tropical airmass accompanied by showers, tstms and gusty se winds. Bermuda high pres will build west Mon through Thu keeping the tropical airmass connection over the waters. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Marion Center, MA
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location: 41.7, -70.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 212307
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
707 pm edt Sat jul 21 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure with tropical moisture moves northward along the
new jersey coast tonight with its attending warm front
approaching new england. This setup will bringing showers and
thunderstorms with torrential downpours and gusty winds very
late tonight into Sunday. Bermuda high pressure then builds
west toward southern new england next week bringing tropical
humidity and warm temperatures. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible Monday and again Thursday with drier
conditions likely Tue and wed.

Near term until 10 pm this evening
705 pm update...

dry weather should prevail through mid evening... Despite an
increase in clouds especially across southeast new england.

Temperatures should drop into the middle to upper 60s by 10 pm
this evening in most locations.

Short term 10 pm this evening through Sunday night
Highlights: overnight into Sunday
* showers embedded t-storms with localized torrential rainfall
* a localized urban flash flood threat exists
* low risk for a severe thunderstorm or two on sun
* high surf dangerous rip currents along the south coast sun
details...

overnight through Sunday...

low pressure off the mid atlantic coast will induce a 925 mb
easterly LLJ 6+ standard deviations above normal this evening
across southern nj! This low will track to the north northwest
and weaken a bit as it lifts north central pa by 12z. This will
take the best forcing heaviest rainfall to our west.

Nonetheless... We still will be dealing with a southerly low
level jet 3 to 4 standard deviations above normal overnight and
Sunday with pwats 2+ inches. This will result in bands of
showers and embedded thunderstorms. Locally torrential rainfall
can be expected with some of the activity when combined with
the anomalous forcing high pwats.

1) heavy rainfall localized urban flash flood threat... .

While a few showers will be possible before midnight... The bulk
of the showers and embedded thunderstorms will occur after
midnight when the warm front approaches with a rapid decrease in
instability. This coupled with an anomalous low level jet of 30
to 50 knots and pwats 2+ standard deviations above normal will
set the stage for pockets of torrential rainfall possible localized
urban flash flooding. While the entire region is subject to
this threat during the morning... Appears the focus will shift to
central if not eastern new england by Sunday afternoon. This a
result of the deeper moisture axis stronger low level jet
blocked from departing the region by upper level ridging over
the atlantic. Uncertainty where this axis might set up... But
perhaps west of the CAPE cod canal to perhaps the worcester
hills. That is where we are most concerned about localized urban
flash flooding... If 1 to 2 inches of rain fall in less than an
hour in the typically prone locations. Confidence was not high
enough to hoist a flash flood watch but later shifts will have
to monitor model trends overnight.

2) severe weather threat:
the overall severe weather threat appears low very late tonight
into Sunday morning as strongest forcing with surface low will
be passing well west of our region. Nonetheless... There will be
several hundred j kg of MUCAPE by 12z Sunday across much of the
region. There also will be very impressive 0 to 1 km helicity
along the warm front. The threat for a brief tornado Sunday
morning is low but non-zero given several hundred units of
helicity. However... Given the triple point passing so far west
of the region and the many mesoscale processes that need to come
together it appears to be a rather low probability.

Nonetheless... It is something we need to watch.

We also can not rule out the low risk for an severe
thunderstorm or two Sunday afternoon. Despite poor mid level
lapse rates and an abundance of clouds... Dewpoints in the lower
to middle 70s should generate near 1000 j kg of cape. Given 70+
dewpoints in place... An isolated wet microburst or two can not
be ruled out. Also... Given stronger winds off the deck heavy
showers embedded t-storms may result in some general gusty
winds.

3) high surf advisory:
a high surf advisory has been issued for ocean exposed beaches
on the south coast, CAPE and islands Sunday. Anomalous
southerly LLJ will allow for 6 to 9 foot seas across the south
coast. The result will be the potential for high surf dangerous
rip currents on these ocean exposed beaches.

Sunday night...

scattered showers and embedded t-storms with locally heavy
rainfall will continue Sunday night. We should see the focus
for the activity shift back into the interior... As upper level
ridging builds westward from the atlantic. High dewpoints in
place will keep low temperatures from dropping below 70 in most
locations.

Long term Monday through Saturday
Highlights...

* tropical humidity through at least Thursday
* greatest risk for showers t-storms Sun ngt-mon & again thu
* drier weather possible Tue and wed
Monday...

anomalous subtropical ridge retrogrades westward into new england
with 594 dam heights into the region! These rising heights shifts
tropical moisture plume westward into ny state as the day
progresses. Thus drier weather advecting into the area from east to
west as seen in model pwat and k indices fields decreasing. Yes, not
your typical advection pattern. So risk for showers in the morning
and then a drying trend from off the ocean into eastern ma trending
westward in the afternoon. Given rising heights warming temps aloft
will not include thunder in the forecast. Very tropical feel to the
day with highs 80-85 and dew pts in the mid 70s!
Tuesday and Wednesday...

good agreement among ensembles and deterministic data sets for
subtropical ridge to continue building westward into new england
with 500 mb heights of 591-594 dam across southern new england. This
will shunt tropical moisture plume north and west of our region.

Thus Tue and Wed could turn out to be mainly dry given subsidence
and deep layer dry air aloft. However can t rule out a few tropical
isolated low top showers. Tropical airmass will remain over the
region with highs 80-85 and dew pts 70-75. Other than some patchy
morning fog possible, could be looking at two good beach days
especially across CAPE cod and nantucket, closest to the subtropical
ridge... A taste of bermuda weather.

.

Thursday...

ensembles and deterministic guidance both suggest northern stream
trough enters the great lakes. This provides cyclonic flow into new
england along with cold front approaching new england. Thus
probability of showers and t-storms on the increase. Warm and humid
conditions continue with highs 80-85 and dew pts 70-75.

Friday...

ensembles suggest FROPA sometime fri-sat time period so expecting
the tropical humidity to finally break. However still warm with
ensembles offering +16c or so at 850 mb over new england.

Aviation 23z Saturday through Thursday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Sunday night ...

tonight and Sunday... Moderate to high confidence. MVFR-ifr
conditions advect in off the ocean from southeast to northwest
as the night wears along. MVFR to ifr conditions persist
Sunday. Bands of showers and embedded t-storms with torrential
rainfall mainly after midnight into Sunday will result in brief
localized lifr conditions. Llws also a concern.

Sunday night... Moderate confidence. Building upper level ridge
may allow for improvement to MVFR and perhaps evenVFR across
portions of eastern new england Sunday night. MVFR to ifr
conditions most likely across our interior zones... Where the
focus for showers and embedded t-storms will setup.

Kbos terminal... Moderate to high confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... Moderate to high confidence in taf.

Outlook Monday through Thursday ...

Monday: mainly MVFR, with areasVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
shra, patchy br.

Monday night: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Chance
shra.

Tuesday through Tuesday night: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR
possible. Chance shra.

Wednesday: mainly MVFR, with areasVFR possible. Chance shra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Sunday night ...

tonight through Sunday night... Moderate to high confidence.

Anomalous southerly low level jet will allow seas to build
across our southern waters to between 5 and 10 feet across our
open waters through Sunday. East to southeast wind gusts of 20
to 30 knots also expected very late tonight into Sunday... So
small craft headlines posted for all waters. Given the westward
shift in the mid atlantic low pressure system... Feel that wind
gusts should stay mainly below gale thresholds so opted to go
with small craft headlines. In addition... Showers and embedded
t-storms along with fog patches will result in poor visibility
for mariners at times very late tonight into Sunday.

Outlook Monday through Thursday ...

Monday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight
chance of rain showers, patchy fog. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Monday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight
chance of rain showers.

Tuesday through Tuesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up
to 5 ft.

Wednesday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight
chance of rain showers.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... High surf advisory from 8 am to 7 pm edt Sunday for maz020-
022>024.

Ri... High surf advisory from 8 am to 7 pm edt Sunday for riz006>008.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 11 pm edt Sunday for anz231>234-251.

Small craft advisory from 7 am to 6 pm edt Sunday for anz230-
236.

Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Monday for anz235-237-250-
254>256.

Synopsis... Frank nocera
near term... Frank
short term... Frank
long term... Frank nocera
aviation... Frank nocera
marine... Frank nocera


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 13 mi36 min 65°F 71°F1019.7 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 14 mi99 min 4.1 65°F 1020 hPa61°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 22 mi42 min 70°F 76°F1020 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 23 mi36 min ENE 8.9 G 11 69°F 1019.5 hPa
FRXM3 23 mi36 min 68°F 62°F
44090 24 mi54 min 71°F1 ft
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 26 mi84 min E 16 G 16 64°F 1020 hPa (+0.0)
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 28 mi34 min E 14 G 18 64°F 74°F1 ft1019.8 hPa61°F
PRUR1 31 mi36 min 68°F 63°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 32 mi99 min ESE 6 69°F 1019 hPa64°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 32 mi36 min E 11 G 13 70°F 77°F1019.3 hPa
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 32 mi42 min E 8.9 G 12 69°F 1019.4 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 34 mi42 min ENE 9.9 G 12 67°F 71°F1018.9 hPa
PVDR1 35 mi36 min E 7 G 9.9 70°F 1019.8 hPa61°F
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 36 mi36 min E 12 G 14 68°F 74°F1019.5 hPa
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 36 mi42 min SE 8.9 G 12 70°F 76°F1019.1 hPa
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 45 mi42 min E 9.9 G 13 63°F 74°F1020 hPa
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 45 mi34 min E 9.7 G 12 67°F 68°F2 ft1019.9 hPa (+0.3)61°F
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 47 mi34 min ESE 7.8 G 9.7 65°F 2 ft1020.6 hPa (+0.0)61°F
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 48 mi36 min 1019.7 hPa

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA12 mi29 minE 710.00 miFair63°F59°F88%1020.7 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA12 mi31 minE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy67°F63°F87%1019.5 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA15 mi32 minE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy65°F60°F84%1020.3 hPa
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA20 mi32 minE 310.00 miMostly Cloudy67°F60°F79%1019.7 hPa
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA21 mi31 minE 910.00 miMostly Cloudy64°F62°F93%1019.7 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA24 mi28 minE 310.00 miPartly Cloudy64°F60°F87%1020.1 hPa

Wind History from EWB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE7E6SE8S8SE7S9SE11SE11SE11SE9E9E7E8
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW5S3SW5SE7SE9SE7S10S11SE10
G18
SE8S8S6SW3
2 days agoN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3N53N5E5E564S5SE10S7S7S10S5SW4

Tide / Current Tables for Piney Point, Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts
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Piney Point
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Sat -- 01:01 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 03:30 AM EDT     3.62 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:20 AM EDT     0.65 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:58 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:07 PM EDT     4.31 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:53 PM EDT     0.80 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.42.233.53.532.21.30.80.70.70.91.32.23.13.94.34.13.42.41.61.10.90.8

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:00 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 01:53 AM EDT     3.93 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 05:10 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:56 AM EDT     -4.19 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 11:11 AM EDT     0.18 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:24 PM EDT     3.96 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 02:58 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:41 PM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:28 PM EDT     -4.18 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 11:47 PM EDT     0.18 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.13.83.93.731.2-2.8-3.9-4.2-3.9-3-1.22.53.53.93.93.52.5-1.7-3.4-4.1-4.1-3.6-2.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.