Thursday, June22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Marion Center, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:08AMSunset 8:23PM Thursday June 22, 2017 2:31 PM EDT (18:31 UTC) Moonrise 4:00AMMoonset 6:41PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ234 Buzzards Bay- 140 Pm Edt Thu Jun 22 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from Friday evening through Saturday morning...
This afternoon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Areas of fog. A chance of showers and tstms. Some tstms may produce heavy rainfall. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the morning. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Areas of fog. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 140 Pm Edt Thu Jun 22 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pressure will slide east of the waters overnight. A warm southwest wind sets up for Friday into the weekend with periods of showers from the remnants of tropical cindy. There will likely be periods of moderate to occasionally heavy rain for Friday into Saturday. A cold front will slowly pass east of the water by Sunday morning. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Marion Center, MA
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location: 41.7, -70.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 221751
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
151 pm edt Thu jun 22 2017

Synopsis
High pressure in control today. Warm and humid air follows for
the remainder of the week into the weekend along with the threat
of heavy rain associated with the remnants of cindy. The cold
front will stall across new england Saturday before moving offshore
Saturday night. Seasonably warm and less humid conditions Sunday
will be followed by cooler and somewhat unsettled weather for
early next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
200 pm update...

weak seabreezes have entered both coastlines early this
afternoon. Otherwise the bulk of the forecast remains on track
for today. Weak high pressure remains over the region resulting
in dry weather and dewpoints in the low 50s. Some mixing across
the region with a few sites gusting to near 20 mph. Stalled
surface front remains south and west of the region, but will
begin to advance northward towards southern new england this
evening.

Temperatures remain in the upper 70s to low 80s making it one
of our top ten days!

Short term 6 pm this evening through Friday night
Tonight...

remaining mild, becoming humid, as the chance of showers increase.

Continued ascent of sub-tropical moisture across the region with
accompanying elevated instability and higher k-indices, though
stronger low-level convergence and deep layer forcing is tied
more closely with the deep layer trough digging S out of canada
into the great lakes region. Subsequently, despite lift and column
saturation, the better chances of wet-weather are more likely N w.

Expecting scattered light outcomes with the possible risk of
thunder. Continued S flow, surface dewpoints continue to rise
closing in on 70. Across the cooler ocean waters, more than
likely low clouds if not fog and visibility issues for SE new
england. Lows in the mid to upper 60s.

Friday...

warm, muggy day with the chance of showers and thunderstorms. Sub-
tropical air continuing to surge from the SW pushing precipitable
waters above 2 inches as remnants of cindy are stretched n. This
ahead of cyclonic flow tightening as mid-level energy continues to
push into the great lakes region. Falling heights along with low-
level convergent forcing pushing into S new england, presents a
favorable environment in which partial clearing is expected, more
over the interior NE conus, for shower and thunderstorm development.

Low clouds along with visibility issues associated with fog mist
are expected to sock in SE new england beneath the remnants of a dry
conveyor belt that had wrapped into cindy. Lapse rates conditionally
unstable, more moist adiabatic contributing to thin-tall CAPE in an
environment of weak shear. Given the sub-tropical airmass in a broad
region of low-level convergent forcing and destabilizing boundary
layer, expecting mainly heavy rainers. Freezing levels up around 15
kft with precipitable waters in excess of 2 inches, efficient warm-
rain processes forecast with collision coalescence. So with any
thunder will go with a mention of heavy rain. Higher chance pops
away from the S E as highs warm well into the 80s. Wherever the
boundary layer mixes out it'll likely be breezy from the SW with
gusts up to 25 mph.

Friday night...

wet, muggy, mild. An anomalous setup attributable to the remnants of
cindy. Roughly a +4-5 standard deviation (sd) of h85 moisture flux
and +3 sd of precipitable waters which exceed record highs recorded
at chatham ma which average around 2 inches but are forecast around
2.25 inches. Will need to closely monitor any focusing mechanisms
which can put the squeeze on the atmosphere and possibly yield a
predecessor rainfall event.

Noting increasing low-level winds per tightening pressure gradient
ahead of mid-level troughing across the great lakes, convergently
focused in and around the s-shoreline of S new england ahead of a
sweeping cool front. Tightening baroclinic zone. Indications of
height falls within the mid-levels associated with weak troughing
signatures contributing to the convergence of sub-tropical air.

This as earlier daytime convection will likely shift S E ahead of
said cool front. This in combination with tropical energy and some
diffluent motions aloft, can't rule out a potential predecessor
rainfall event. Difficult to nail down at this time as to exactly
where but feel there is a risk to S new england around the Saturday
am timeframe.

Looking at chance to likely pops for possible widespread rain with
embedded heavier showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rain threat per
efficient warm-rain processes still exists and will continue to
mention. Again, focus of heavy rain remains uncertain with respect
to potential flooding threats.

Surface dewpoints well into the 70s, a muggy and humid airmass for
certain, off the cooler ocean waters especially to the S e, likely
dealing with foggy conditions overnight into the morning hours.

Could see visibility down to a quarter mile or less at times.

Long term Saturday through Wednesday
Highlights...

* sct showers and isold t-storms sat, mainly south of the pike
* seasonably warm and less humid Sunday
* cooler with showers possible at times early next week
overview...

longwave trof over the gt lakes will be the main feature in the
extended period. Polar jet will be in the vicinity of new eng with a
series of weak shortwaves moving through the flow as the trof
gradually moves into new eng early next week. This will bring a
somewhat unsettled pattern into the middle of next week with
cooler temps trending near or below normal.

Details...

Saturday...

cold front expected to stall across sne with tropical pwat plume
exceeding 2" and high theta-e air remaining across southern half of
the region. Shortwave assocd with the remnants of cindy tracks near
or south of new eng and will likely bring a period of showers and
isold t-storms with brief downpours, especially south of the pike. A
few showers may even extend into northern ma in the morning but
trend should be for improving conditions here in the afternoon with
developing sunshine.

Temps are tricky south of the pike where clouds and showers may hold
temps down. We undercut guidance here with highs mostly in the 70s
to near 80 but low to mid 80s NE ma. Remaining rather humid south of
the pike with dewpoints well into the 60s to near 70, but expect
dewpoints dropping into the 50s across northern and western ma in
the afternoon. Drier air will eventually make its way to the coast
sat night with clearing skies.

Sunday...

the column is considerably drier Sunday so expect sunshine mixing
with diurnal clouds. Mainly dry conditions but mid level shortwave
tracking to the north and west may bring a brief showers to NW ma.

Seasonable temps in the upper 70s and lower 80s with low humidity as
dewpoints will be in the 50s.

Monday into Wednesday...

gt lakes trof will gradually move east into new eng as a series of
shortwaves move through with mid level temps cooling through the
period. 500 mb temps -16 to -20c. This will result in an unsettled
pattern with showers or even an isold t-storm possible at times, but
low confidence on timing. Temps trending cooler to near or a bit
below seasonable normals.

Aviation 18z Thursday through Tuesday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday night ...

before 00z... High confidence.VFR. Seabreeze dissipating this
evening as high level clouds increase from the W towards sunset.

Tonight... Moderate confidence. CIGS becoming sct to bkn
lowering towards 4-6 kft with scattered shra moving in, the
better chance of which will be north of the pike with a low risk
tsra. Increasing S winds with the threat of MVFR ifr vsbys
along the S coast from stratus and fog.

Friday... Moderate confidence. Ifr MVFR stratus and fog across
the south coast should improve toVFR during the day. Much of
the region will remainVFR with hit or miss showers. Heavy
downpours possible with the potential for iso thunder. Stratus
will fill back in late afternoon ESP across CAPE and islands.

Gusty southwesterly winds during the day with gusts near 25 kts.

Friday night... Moderate confidence.VFR conditions north of the
pike through the night, with MVFR ifr south of the pike in
another round of stratus and fog. Better chance for showers and
iso thunder during the overnight hours. Heavy rainfall could
limit vsbys.

Kbos terminal... Seabreeze dissipating early afternoon.

OtherwiseVFR for the entire TAF period. Gusty SW winds near
25kts Friday afternoon.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence.VFR throughout. Gusty SW winds
near 25kts during Friday afternoon.

Outlook Saturday through Monday ...

Saturday... Moderate confidence.

MVFR and localized ifr in sct showers and isold t-storms, especially
south of the pike with improving conditions, mainlyVFR north of the
pike.

Sunday... High confidence. MainlyVFR.

Monday... High confidence.

MainlyVFR CIGS with a few showers possible in the interior.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday night ...

high pressure today. Light winds veering though the day becoming
s overnight, increasing into Friday with sustained winds 10 to
15 kts and gusts up to 25 kts. This will push seas 5 to 6 feet
and require small craft advisories. With a cold front sweeping
down from the N as the remnants of TS cindy advect N from the s,
will likely see the return of mist fog conditions resulting
in low visibility down to a quarter mile or less at times.

Outlook Saturday through Monday ...

Saturday... Moderate confidence.

Some gusty W SW winds early sat, possibly near SCA thresholds should
diminish in the afternoon. Seas up to 5-6 ft over the south coastal
waters.

Sunday and Monday... High confidence.

Winds should generally remain below small craft advisory thresholds
through the period. Lingering 5 ft seas over the south coastal
waters will subside Sun night.

Tides coastal flooding
Astronomical tides are rather high this weekend during the night time
cycles. Boston has a 12.4 ft high tide around midnight Sat night and
12.2 ft just after midnight Sun night. Fortunately, offshore winds
are forecast with minimal or no surge so do not anticipate any
issues.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 8 pm Friday to 8 am edt Saturday for
anz232>235-237.

Small craft advisory from 2 pm Friday to 8 am edt Saturday for
anz250-254>256.

Synopsis... Kjc sipprell
near term... Dunten sipprell
short term... Sipprell
long term... Kjc sipprell
aviation... Kjc dunten
marine... Kjc sipprell
tides coastal flooding... Staff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 13 mi43 min 69°F 67°F1014.1 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 14 mi106 min 1.9 77°F 1015 hPa55°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 22 mi49 min 79°F 70°F1014.2 hPa
FRXM3 23 mi43 min 79°F 57°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 23 mi43 min SW 12 G 14 76°F 1012.7 hPa
44090 24 mi57 min 65°F
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 26 mi31 min S 9.9 G 9.9 64°F 1014.9 hPa (-0.4)
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 32 mi106 min SW 5.1 77°F 1014 hPa60°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 32 mi43 min SSE 12 G 15 74°F 71°F1013.7 hPa
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 32 mi43 min SW 4.1 G 8
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 34 mi43 min S 11 G 13 71°F 64°F1014 hPa
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 34 mi41 min 65°F1 ft1014.3 hPa (-0.7)
PVDR1 35 mi43 min SSE 4.1 G 8.9 79°F 1013.3 hPa54°F
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 36 mi49 min S 9.9 G 17 74°F 70°F1014 hPa
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 36 mi43 min W 6 G 12 84°F 68°F1012.7 hPa
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 45 mi43 min SSW 7 G 8.9 72°F 68°F1014.8 hPa
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 45 mi41 min ESE 5.8 G 5.8 65°F 59°F1 ft1013.4 hPa (-0.9)
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 48 mi43 min 82°F 1011.9 hPa

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA12 mi36 minSSW 1110.00 miFair79°F55°F45%1014.2 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA12 mi38 minW 11 G 1810.00 miFair81°F55°F41%1013.3 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA15 mi39 minW 510.00 miFair79°F52°F39%1013.5 hPa
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA20 mi39 minSSW 810.00 miFair81°F52°F37%1013.2 hPa
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA21 mi38 minS 1310.00 miFair76°F55°F48%1014.2 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA24 mi35 minSSW 1010.00 miFair74°F59°F60%1013.6 hPa

Wind History from EWB (wind in knots)
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SW9W5W3W4CalmCalmW3CalmCalmNW6NW3NW65NW45Calm5W8W11
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1 day agoSW18
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SW9SW8SW6SW6SW6SW5SW4SW4SW4CalmSW3S4SW86SW8W11W9
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SW10S10SW10SW12SW8SW10SW9SW10SW13
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Tide / Current Tables for Piney Point, Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts
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Piney Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:36 AM EDT     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:00 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:57 AM EDT     4.48 feet High Tide
Thu -- 12:19 PM EDT     -0.64 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:40 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:22 PM EDT     5.59 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.2-0.20.10.71.83.14.14.542.81.2-0-0.6-0.500.92.13.54.85.55.44.42.81.3

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:09 AM EDT     0.21 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:59 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 05:14 AM EDT     4.51 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 08:39 AM EDT     -0.21 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:29 AM EDT     -4.64 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 02:32 PM EDT     0.04 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:34 PM EDT     4.50 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:40 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:53 PM EDT     -0.15 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:53 PM EDT     -4.95 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-4.4-3.4-1.32.94.14.54.43.82.5-1.9-3.8-4.6-4.5-3.9-2.42.23.74.44.543-1.1-3.6-4.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.