Sunday, March26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Marion Center, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:33AMSunset 7:04PM Sunday March 26, 2017 8:43 PM EDT (00:43 UTC) Moonrise 5:55AMMoonset 5:32PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ234 Buzzards Bay- 717 Pm Edt Sun Mar 26 2017
Tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Rain...mainly after midnight.
Mon..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. Rain. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Patchy fog. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..E winds around 5 kt...becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less. Patchy fog. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue night..SE winds around 5 kt...becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less. Patchy fog. Showers likely. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu night..N winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Fri..NE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of rain.
Fri night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of rain. Seas are reported as significant wave height...which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 717 Pm Edt Sun Mar 26 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pres over the gulf of maine moves seaward tonight. A warm front moves into the waters Mon. Another low tracks south of new england Tue night. Strong high pres over quebec builds south into new england Wed...thu and into Fri. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period...please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Marion Center, MA
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location: 41.7, -70.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 262305
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
705 pm edt Sun mar 26 2017

Synopsis
High pressure over marine will retreat into the maritimes but
provide cool weather across southern new england tonight into
Monday. A warm front will approach the region during this time and
result in periods of rain with areas of freezing rain across the
high terrain. Wet weather continues Tue and Tue night as low
pressure tracks over or near the region. Although Tue should be
milder than Monday. High pressure brings dry but chilly weather wed
and thu. More unsettled weather is possible late Fri into sat.

Near term /until 6 am Monday morning/
7 pm update...

a northwest to southeast band of showers moving across western
ma/northeast ct and ri at 7 pm. This in response to WAA pattern
across the region. Temps remain above freezing so precip is all
rain. Periods of rain/showers combined with onshore flow has
resulted in dew pts steadily rising this afternoon and now into
the evening hours into the mid to upper 20s. Not much drier low
level air to advect southward from central new england so
threat of freezing rain/drizzle overnight may turn out to be
less of a risk than earlier thought. Will help headlines up as
is and let next shift evalute trends for any possibly changes.

Otherwise previous forecast on track. Earlier discussion below.

==================================================================
*/ highlights...

* freezing rain advisory through 8 am Monday for the
expectation of light icing on untreated surfaces in n/w
portions of ma, especially across the higher terrain of the
berkshires and worcester hills.

* special weather statement issued to address the freezing rain
in the forecast however lower confidence of icing on
untreated surfaces.

*/ discussion...

into evening...

most of southern new england has warmed above freezing as another
band of precipitation approaches from the SW invoked by mid-level
forcing and an increasing warm-moist airmass encroaching into the
region. Increasing pops accordingly for s/w ma and ct behind the
present lull in the weather. Temperatures holding steady with most
locations seeing an E flow aside from the ct river valley still
observing some N funneling of winds.

Tonight...

main focus of freezing rain impacts is mainly in franklin / northern
worcester county of massachusetts, especially along the high terrain
and with impact focus along the route 2 and northern portion of the
i-91 corridor, more importantly during early Monday morning commute.

Will keep with the freezing rain advisory giving greater exposure
and awareness to the general public. Special weather statement else-
where where freezing rain is forecast highlighting the lesser
confidence of icing on untreated surfaces.

Seemingly such a marginal icing event. Absence of arctic air as well
as one of considerable depth at the surface. The surface high setup
more n/e rather than n/nw thus less N component of ageostrophic /
isallobaric flow, more E onshore component off warmer ocean waters.

While it's late march, significant icing events are more favorable
when temperatures are forecast in the 20s or below. Also noteworthy
cips analogs are fairly quiet, not showing much of a strong signal.

The SREF probabilities mainly confined to the high terrain of the
berkshires and worcester hills.

Still a tough forecast given the synoptic setup especially with 2m
surface temperatures. The warm front will be slow to creep n/e and
given some uncertainty on timing, a forecast off by 1 to 2 degrees
can make some difference. Could even hang for a period up against
the n/e colder airmass, N funneling flow. Some inherent forecast
challenges.

So going into it, precipitation will overspread the area overnight
per dominant low to mid level lift and forcing, more so against high
terrain. While considering ice to be present within the column, the
depth and magnitude of the warm layer around h85 above the shallow
surface cold airmass favors any precipitation falling into a region
of sub-freezing temperatures to be mainly in the form of freezing
rain. Gradual change over to rain with a near-steady to non-diurnal
temperature trend forecast, more than likely a combination of 1.)
falling liquid through an increasing warm- layer, 2.) latent heat
release of liquid freezing as ice on untreated surfaces, especially
those elevated and exposed, and 3.) onshore E flow off the warmer
waters ushering into the interior.

Freezing rain impacts erode n/w towards Monday morning. Majority of
the threat focused across the n/w high terrain. Particular focus to
the n/w ma route 2 and N ma i-91 corridor. Ice accretions mostly
that of a glaze but the potential is there for up to a tenth of an
inch. If having to travel this area tonight into the early morning
hours of Monday, please be aware of the potential hazards for the
area within the freezing rain advisory.

Short term /6 am Monday morning through Monday night/
Monday...

mainly rain with, however, some lingering pockets of freezing rain
during the morning for n/w ma, especially along the high terrain.

Warm front lifts across the area with associated forcing mechanisms
collocated with a +2 standard deviation precipitable water airmass.

Yet notable the stronger qg-forcing and perhaps convergent focus is
across upstate ny into N new england. Thus some spread in the model
forecast outcomes of more moderate rainfall.

With little to no impact impacted with model forecast rainfall, will
go with a consensus blend of the guidance. It'll be a cold rain for
some, especially those n/e still within a lingering airmass just
above freezing, perhaps for a long period of time depending on the
evolution n/e of the surface warm front, if it becomes hung up,
which in turn will have implications on the surface wind forecast.

Some challenges to be sure but think we'll be okay otherwise. Will
see temperatures warm into the 40s, lower 50s for locations s/w. E
winds along the warm front becoming more S and a bit more breezy
behind. Majority of the rain focus around the midday hours coming to
an end into the evening.

Monday night...

cloudy, dreary night. Lot of low level moisture given the recent
rains plus the continued S flow off the waters, trapped beneath the
continued stout warm layer inversion immediately aloft. Lots of low
clouds, perhaps even some drizzle can be included. Given the over-
cast deck, don't expect temperatures to drop much overnight. Will
remain mild, in thinking, with lows down around the 40s.

Long term /Tuesday through Sunday/
Highlights...

* active weather pattern with precip likely tue/tue ngt & fri/sat
* dry but cool and blustery weather Wed and thu
pattern overview...

deterministic and ensemble guidance both support a split flow regime
across the CONUS this period. Thus active weather pattern into new
england this week and possibly into next weekend with a parade of
moisture rich southern stream systems. Given it's still late march,
northern stream still showing appreciable amplitude so have to watch
for the potential of precip type issues late Fri into sat.

Details...

Tuesday/tue night... Moderate forecast confidence.

Southern stream system currently located over the southern plains
will move across new england this period. All model guidance agrees
that southern new england begins in the warm sector Tue so
definitely a milder day than Monday. A model blend offers highs tue
between 55-60... Cooler south coast. Could be warmer if clouds and
precip are delayed until late in the day or at night. In addition,
dew pts climbing to near 50 will help remove any coolness to the
airmass. By Tue evening height falls shift frontal boundary south
with low pres tracking over or just south of new england. Thus much
cooler late tue/tue night as frontal wave passes and north-northeast
flow overspreads the region.

Gefs has pwats climbing to about +2 standard deviations above climo.

This combined with surface convergence from frontal boundary and
surface wave could yield a period of moderate to perhaps heavy rain
at times. As previous forecaster mentioned could see isolated
thunder given weak elevated instability.

Wednesday and Thursday... Moderate to high forecast confidence
dry but cool weather as northern stream mid level closed low tracks
from eastern quebec thru maine and then into the northern atlantic.

Wed will get off to a somewhat mild start with lows only in the
upper 30s and lower 40s. However CAA overspreads the area by
afternoon via gusty northerly winds. Clouds may be stubborn on wed
over the CAPE and islands given northerly flow across the waters. In
fact could have some ocean effect rain/snow showers over the outer
cape! A few degs cooler Thu given less blyr mixing with high pres
overhead. However will be fairly pleasant given light winds and lots
of sunshine.

Friday/Saturday/Sunday... Low confidence given time range and
amplitude and interaction of northern and southern streams
deterministic and ensembles agree next southern stream system may
impact our region in the late fri-sat time frame. Northern stream
showing some amplitude downstream across the maritimes and this may
result in cold confluent flow over or just to the north of the
region. Thus a chilly rain with potential for wet snow/sleet at
times on the northern portion of the precip shield. All guidance
suggest system should be or moving offshore by Sunday, thus drying
trend possible second half of the weekend.

Aviation /00z Monday through Friday/
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term /through Monday night/... Moderate confidence.

7 pm update...

vfr early this evening with scattered showers slowly slips to
MVFR and possibly local ifr-lifr late. Previous tafs has this
trend covered so no major changes planned. Earlier discussion
below.

================================================================
tonight...

MVFR lowering to ifr-lifr. E winds overall but remaining N within
the ct river valley. Ra / fzra coverage increasing across terminals.

Fzra more likely for interior areas (e central ma across to W ma,
nw ri, N ct) with the highest risk across the high terrain of the
berkshires and worcester hills. Mainly trace accumulations but as
high as a tenth of an inch. Main impacts after midnight into Monday
morning, fzra threat eroding to the N as well towards Monday morning.

Monday...

fzra risk diminishes, lingering over n/w ma, especially the high terrain
for the first few hours. Otherwise -ra/ra with MVFR-lifr CIGS with
light E winds initially turning SE and increasing.

Monday night...

ra diminishing however ifr-lifr CIGS remain. Could see some dz in
addition. Light winds.

Kbos taf... Not expecting any fzra impacts at the terminal with E onshore
flow. Lowering MVFR down to lifr after midnight Monday into Monday
morning.

Kbdl taf... Fzra threat around midnight Monday, yet expect spotty impacts.

Not expecting any ice accretion, at most a trace as a worse case.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...

Tuesday... Moderate confidence. MVFR conditions likely in areas of
rain and fog with a trend lowering to ifr as frontal boundary and
surface low approach. Low risk for thunder.

Wednesday into Thursday... High confidence. Dry andVFR weather
likely but MVFR in scattered rain/snow showers possible over the
cape and islands wed/wed night. Gusty northerly winds Wednesday
into thu.

Friday... Moderate confidence.VFR and dry to start but likely
lowering to MVFR or possibly ifr Fri night in rain. Low risk of rain
mixing with snow/sleet interior Fri night.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term /through Monday night/...

warm front will lift across the waters tonight into Monday along
and behind which E flow may gust as high as 25 kts and influence
seas to 5-6 feet. Greater confidence for the outer waters than
the inner waters, so opted to issue scas accordingly, will let
the night crew evaluate whether it needs to be expanded. A weak
frontal boundary sweeps the waters Monday night and winds turn
westerly but remain light. This will allow seas to subside and
scas to conclude.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...

Tuesday... Moderate confidence. Light southerly winds with frontal
boundary north of the region. However winds becoming northeast late
tue night as front slips south and wave of low pres tracks along the
front south of new england. Vsby reduced at times in rain and fog.

Wednesday into Thursday... High confidence. Gusty north winds near
Wednesday into early Thu then diminishing as high pressure builds
into the area later thu.

Friday... High confidence. Quiet weather with high pressure over the
area early fri. However increasing east-southeast winds Fri night as
low pres approaches from the west. Also vsby lowering in rain and
fog Fri night.

Box watches/warnings/advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... Freezing rain advisory until 8 am edt Monday for maz002>004-
008-009-012-026.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 2 am Monday to 2 am edt Tuesday for
anz250-254.

Small craft advisory until 11 pm edt Monday for anz255-256.

Synopsis... Nocera/sipprell
near term... Nocera/sipprell
short term... Sipprell
long term... Nocera
aviation... Nocera/sipprell
marine... Nocera/sipprell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 13 mi43 min 38°F 37°F1030.6 hPa (-1.3)
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 14 mi58 min 39°F 31°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 22 mi43 min 39°F 39°F1031.3 hPa (-1.0)
FRXM3 23 mi43 min 39°F 28°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 23 mi43 min E 6 G 8 39°F 1031.4 hPa (-0.9)
44090 24 mi39 min 37°F1 ft
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 26 mi43 min E 9.9 G 11 37°F 1031.4 hPa (-0.5)
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 32 mi58 min ESE 5.1 39°F 1031 hPa30°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 32 mi43 min E 8.9 G 11 38°F 39°F1030.7 hPa (-0.8)
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 32 mi43 min ESE 4.1 G 7 38°F 1031.4 hPa (-0.8)
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 34 mi43 min E 6 G 8.9 38°F 39°F1030.5 hPa (-0.8)
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 34 mi53 min 38°F1 ft1030.9 hPa (-1.4)
PVDR1 35 mi49 min SE 7 G 8.9 39°F 1030.4 hPa29°F
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 36 mi43 min E 12 G 14 38°F 39°F1030.9 hPa (-0.9)
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 36 mi43 min SSE 6 G 8.9 39°F 39°F1029.9 hPa (-0.9)
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 45 mi43 min E 9.9 G 13 38°F 40°F1030.8 hPa (-1.2)
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 45 mi53 min E 12 G 14 38°F 40°F4 ft1031.1 hPa (-1.4)
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 48 mi43 min 37°F 38°F1031.3 hPa (-1.3)

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA12 mi48 minno data10.00 miOvercast37°F28°F70%1031.2 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA12 mi50 minE 710.00 miOvercast39°F28°F67%1030.7 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA15 mi51 minE 710.00 miOvercast38°F28°F68%1031.3 hPa
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA20 mi51 minN 010.00 miOvercast39°F26°F60%1030.8 hPa
Vineyard Haven, Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA21 mi50 minE 910.00 miLight Rain38°F28°F70%1030.6 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA24 mi47 minE 610.00 miOvercast38°F28°F68%1030.7 hPa

Wind History from EWB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N3CalmN4N4N4N4NE9E12NE12NE8NE9E10SE10SE11SE11E8E8E7
1 day agoSW13
G20
SW9SW8SW8CalmSW3SW4CalmCalmS3CalmN4N4NE8NE10NE8NE12NE8N6N3CalmN45N3
2 days agoW3CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS7SW10S18
G24
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Tide / Current Tables for Piney Point, Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts
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Piney Point
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Sun -- 12:48 AM EDT     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:54 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:25 AM EDT     4.31 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:14 PM EDT     -0.40 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:31 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 07:43 PM EDT     4.52 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.1-0.3-00.61.52.63.64.24.23.42.20.9-0-0.4-0.30.21.12.23.44.34.53.92.71.3

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:50 AM EDT     0.19 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:50 AM EDT     4.12 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 05:54 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:07 AM EDT     -0.19 knots Slack
Sun -- 12:03 PM EDT     -4.61 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 03:11 PM EDT     0.04 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:31 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:17 PM EDT     4.43 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 07:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:41 PM EDT     -0.21 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-4.3-3.8-2.71.23.13.94.13.83.11.1-3-4.2-4.6-4.3-3.4-1.42.844.44.33.82.6-1.8-3.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.