Wednesday, January17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Poughkeepsie, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 4:54PM Wednesday January 17, 2018 3:48 AM EST (08:48 UTC) Moonrise 8:34AMMoonset 6:36PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 939 Pm Est Tue Jan 16 2018
Overnight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance of snow late this evening, then rain with snow likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Rain with snow likely in the morning, then chance of snow and rain in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Sun night..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 939 Pm Est Tue Jan 16 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure develops along the mid atlantic coast tonight and then passes across or just east of the waters on Wednesday before moving up the coast into the canadian maritimes Wednesday night. High pressure will then build to the south through the rest of the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Poughkeepsie, NY
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location: 41.7, -73.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 170601
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
101 am est Wed jan 17 2018

Synopsis
A developing coastal low pressure system will form
southeast of the DELMARVA region overnight and track northeast to
near CAPE cod late Wednesday morning. This system is expected to
bring a moderate to heavy snowfall to much of the region overnight
into Wednesday. Seasonably cold and mainly dry weather is expected
Thursday with some lake effect snowfall northwest of the capital
district.

Near term through today
As of 1230 am est... Monitoring radar satellite trends and
surface observations for ongoing snow event. A fairly large
mesoscale band has set up across eastern ulster, dutchess,
northern litchfield and southern berkshire counties. Based on
reflectivity values of around 25 dbz, snowfall rates of around
one inch per hour occurring. These areas are all in a winter
storm warning. Farther north and west, snowfall rates are
lighter but snow is still accumulating. Snowfall reports from
the evening revealed generally 1-4 inches, with a few to several
more inches expected overnight through this morning.

The latest rap guidance with the goes-16 clean IR 10.35 micron
band satellite imagery overlaid continues to show cloud tops
cooling over much of the forecast area with the a positively
tilted mid and upper level trough centered over the central-
eastern great lakes region. A decaying primary sfc low has
drifted over the central ny-pa border. A secondary sfc coastal
low is continuing to form southeast of the DELMARVA corridor.

Over running moisture ahead of the coastal low continues to
spill into the region with a baroclinic zone set-up over eastern
ny and western new england. The current headlines look good
with warning for 5-10" of snow from the mid-hudson valley of
dutchess co., the taconics into eastern rensselaer county
eastward into western new england. West of the warning area,
advisories remain up for 4-8" in the capital region, eastern
catskills, schoharie valley, and the lake george region northern
saratoga region, and 2-6" further west.

With the approaching mid and upper level trough and a strong mid
and upper left front quadrant of a jet-streak nearby, recent
northeast cstar research would suggest the potential for a
quasi-stationary mesoscale band of snowfall on the northwestern
side of this developing low pressure area especially after
midnight to continue. The latest mesoscale models, including the
3-km hrrr and NAM do suggest the heaviest snowfall amounts
extending from the poconos northeast across the catskills, mid
hudson valley and into NW ct berkshires overnight.

The morning commute will likely be fairly difficult across much
of the area this morning due to the snow covered roadways and
low visibility. As the low pressure lifts up towards eastern new
england, snowfall will start to taper off from west to east
during the day. We will have to monitor for a brief period of
mohawk-hudson convergence mhc in the late morning into early
afternoon based on some of the mesoscale model trends including
the latest 3km nam. Based on the track of the cyclone, and the
local flow patterns in the adjoining valley, it is possible
referring to the mhc cstar conceptual model. Winds will switch
to the northwest behind the storm, but shouldn't be too strong
since the surface low is fairly weak, so blowing drifting
doesn't look like a concern with this event. Temps today will
generally be in the 20s, with a few spots in the mid-hudson
valley and NW ct reaching the low 30s. Clouds should be breaking
for some Sun during the afternoon from west to east as well.

Short term tonight through Friday
A ridge of high pressure will build in Wednesday night
providing mainly dry conditions. However, due to well aligned
westerly flow and borderline conditional lake induced
instability, there will be some lake effect snow showers across
the western adirondacks. Any accumulations should be light, with
shallow inversion heights of only around 850 mb are expected.

Temperatures will be near normal, with lows in the single digits
and teens.

Similar conditions should prevail on Thursday, with a flat
ridge in place and a westerly flow continuing. Again, some light
lake effect snow showers may affect the western adirondacks,
but dry conditions should prevail elsewhere. Snow showers may be
a bit more enhanced with greater coverage Thursday night across
the western southern adirondacks, as a fast-moving short wave
trough is expected to move through. Still, only minor
accumulations are forecast with mainly dry conditions elsewhere.

Temperatures will remain near normal during this time. Highs on
Thursday will be in the upper teens to lower 30s with lows
Thursday night in the mid teens to lower 20s.

On Friday, any lingering lake effect should end during the
morning with dry conditions expected Friday afternoon. Highs on
Friday will be in the mid 20s to mid 30s.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
This period will mark a turn toward much above normal
temperatures... With highs mainly in the 30s and 40s each day, and
lows stating out mostly around 20 degrees Friday night, with mostly
upper 20s and lower 30s by Sunday and Monday nights. With mid-
january being albany's coldest time of the year, on average, lows
there are normally in the mid teens, with highs around 30 degrees.

High pressure centered over the deep south will build up into the
mid-atlantic region. An east-west frontal boundary will stay just
north of our zones as low pressure over the center of the contiguous
u.S. Develops and tracks across the great lakes and into southern
quebec through Monday night, displacing the high pressure and
bringing a good chance of rain showers throughout the area as early
as Sunday night, which could start as snow. By midday Monday, all
areas outside of the high peaks of the adirondacks will likely
experience pure rain shower activity ahead of a cold front which
will move quickly east across our zones Monday night. It will be
overcast with low instability. Only a modest decline in
temperatures will be experienced behind the front... To as low
as near normal.

Aviation 06z Wednesday through Sunday
A double barrel low pressure system will continue impact the
area. The primary low over upstate ny has begun to weaken as
the secondary coastal low develops near delmarva. The coastal
low will become the dominate low as it deepens and moves south
of long island late this morning and quickly northeast of cape
cod by the afternoon with the steady snow tapering to snow
showers and flurries. The mesoscale band of snow is expected to
impact kpou and kpsf early this morning. There could be some
lingering snow across the capital district due to a brief period
of mohawk-hudson convergence into the afternoon.

Ifr and lower conditions through the overnight and morning hours
with an improvement to MVFR expected by early afternoon andVFR
by evening. Conditions expected to improve a bit quicker at kpou.

Light and variable to calm winds overnight and well into
Wednesday morning with a northwest flow developing at 6 to 10
knots shifting to the west in the evening.

Outlook...

Wednesday night to Saturday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Saturday night to Sunday: moderate operational impact. Chance
of shra... Shsn.

Hydrology
Ongoing flooding due to ice jams will continue to be addressed
with areal flood warnings. There could still be some lingering
issues as any existing ice jams may tend to become frozen in
place due to the continued cold temperatures expected over the
next few days. Warmer weather is not expected until the weekend.

In terms of precipitation, a moderate snowfall is expected for
much of the area from today into Wednesday, with heavy snowfall
from the mid hudson valley and taconics eastward across western
new england.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs
on our website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... Winter storm warning until 3 pm est this afternoon for ctz001-
013.

Ny... Winter weather advisory until 3 pm est this afternoon for
nyz032-033-038>043-047>053-058>060-063-082>084.

Winter storm warning until 3 pm est this afternoon for nyz054-
061-064>066.

Ma... Winter storm warning until 3 pm est this afternoon for maz001-
025.

Vt... Winter storm warning until 3 pm est this afternoon for
vtz013>015.

Synopsis... Jpv wasula
near term... Frugis jpv wasula
short term... 11 jpv
long term... Elh
aviation... Iaa
hydrology... 11 jpv


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 22 mi78 min 29°F 1027 hPa28°F
TKPN6 22 mi48 min 28°F 32°F28°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 54 mi48 min E 4.1 G 8 36°F 35°F1025.7 hPa (-1.4)

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY5 mi55 minNNE 31.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist29°F27°F92%1026.2 hPa
Newburgh / Stewart, NY16 mi2.1 hrsN 01.50 miLight Snow Fog/Mist28°F28°F100%1026.4 hPa
Montgomery, Orange County Airport, NY22 mi54 minN 01.25 miLight Snow Fog/Mist29°F27°F92%1026 hPa

Wind History from POU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmN3
1 day agoN4N5N6N3N8NE7N5NW3N7NW6N53NW3N6CalmCalmCalmNW3N5N3CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoN6N9NE4NE5N4NE8N9N6NE10N7N8N12
G19
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G17
NE5N5NE4N54N5

Tide / Current Tables for Poughkeepsie, Hudson River, New York
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Poughkeepsie
Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Wed -- 12:43 AM EST     2.74 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:00 AM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:19 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:34 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:53 PM EST     3.29 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:52 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:36 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 07:37 PM EST     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.62.72.41.81.20.60.2-00.31.122.73.23.33.12.51.70.90.3-0.1-0.20.41.22

Tide / Current Tables for Hyde Park, Hudson River, New York
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Hyde Park
Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Wed -- 01:09 AM EST     2.82 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:19 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:26 AM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:34 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:19 PM EST     3.39 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:52 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:36 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 08:03 PM EST     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.62.82.72.21.50.90.400.10.71.72.53.13.43.32.92.11.30.60.1-0.20.10.91.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.