Monday, December11, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Highland, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 4:27PM Monday December 11, 2017 12:52 AM EST (05:52 UTC) Moonrise 1:32AMMoonset 2:07PM Illumination 47% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1007 Pm Est Sun Dec 10 2017
Overnight..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Scattered snow showers with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Scattered snow showers in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming se after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain and snow after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain likely mainly in the morning.
Tue night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed night..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, becoming around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Thu night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of snow in the afternoon.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of snow in the evening.
ANZ300 1007 Pm Est Sun Dec 10 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front will pass early Monday. Low pressure will then pass across the great lakes Monday night, while an associated warm front lifts through the waters Tuesday morning, followed by a strong trailing cold front in the afternoon. High pressure will slowly return through Thursday. Low pressure will move through on Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Highland, NY
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location: 41.7, -73.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 110550
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
1250 am est Mon dec 11 2017

Synopsis
Lake effect snow will impact portions of the western
adirondacks tonight. Fair weather is expected for Monday with a
widespread snowfall expected for Monday night and Tuesday as
another storm system approaches from the west.

Near term until 6 am this morning
As of 1245 am est... Winter weather advisory for lake effect
snow remains in effect tonight for northern herkimer and western
hamilton counties.

Lake effect snow has shown a resurgence this evening thanks to
the combination of steep low level lapse rates and upper level
wave progressing through which is likely helping with seeder-
feeder processes. So lake band will persist through the rest of
the overnight and per the rap hrrr, we will see this band slowly
drift south around sunrise. Rest of the region, outside of
flurry, variable cloud coverage.

Prev disc...

broad upper level through continue to be situated over the great
lakes and northeast us. With w-sw flow coming parallel over the
long axis of lake ontario, a single concentrated band of lake
effect snow is occurring off the eastern end of lake ontario.

Although the heaviest of the band has been occurring across the
watertown area and over the tug hill, some moderate snowfall has
been occurring in the old forge area. Several new inches of
snowfall has occurred today in old forge according to the nys
mesonet station and web cam imagery.

Over the next few hours, the band will continue to slowly drift
across the western adirondacks. Eventually, it will start to
shift southward and weaken by the late night hours, as the low-
level flow starts to shift in response to a frontal boundary
swinging through the area. Before that occurs, a few more inches
of snow accumulation is likely, especially along the route 28
corridor around old forge and inlet.

Elsewhere, skies are mostly cloudy. Cannot totally rule out a
few upslope snow showers or flurries across southern vt and in
western areas thanks to the approaching frontal boundary, but
much of the area will remain dry and quiet through the overnight
hours.

Temperatures will be near normal overnight with teens higher
elevations to 20s lower elsewhere.

Short term 6 am this morning through Wednesday
Winter storm watch posted for northern half of forecast
area...

weak high pressure will build in for Monday. There could be
some light snow showers across the northwest portion of the area
as a weak cold front settles south. Otherwise, expect some
sunshine particularly in the afternoon. Temperatures will be a
few degrees below normal.

Clouds will increase later Monday into Monday night ahead of the
next storm system. Models are in good agreement that low
pressure will track across into the northern portion of the
forecast area on Tuesday. Secondary development will occur off
the long island coast with the primary low tracking into maine.

Nam and GFS in good agreement on QPF with upwards of 0.75 inch
total forecast in the MAX zone running along a herkimer-fulton-
saratoga- windham line. The euro comes in somewhat lighter in
this region. Ascent from this storm looks to be driven by warm
advection with particularly impressive omega noted on the
280k 285k surfaces. Other parameters such as dendritic growth
zone and fgen forcing are not overly impressive. That being
said, the isentropic lift is supportive of the QPF totals.

Recent research here at the office has focused on using our gis
tool gazpacho to offer guidance on QPF biased forecasting in
various flow regimes. For the upcoming storm, we are looking at
925mb winds southeast around 30 knots. Research shows that in
this regime we have typically underestimated snowfall in favored
upslope regions of the adirondacks and greens. Putting it all
together we are looking for 8 to 12 inches in the watch area
with amounts trending lower away from watch zones. This would
imply advisory criteria snowfall for much of the remainder of
the area. Across the mid hudson valley temperatures may warm
enough to bring some rain into the picture holding down totals.

High temperatures will range from mid 20s north to upper 30s
south.

In the wake of the system cold and blustery conditions set in
for Tuesday night and Wednesday. Lows on Tuesday night are in
the single digits to mid 20s. Highs on Wednesday will barely
budge from morning lows. These temperatures combined with gusty
winds of 15 to 25 mph will yield wind chill values from minus
10 degrees to the teens.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday
Our active and wintry pattern continues into the extend forecast as
a longwave trough persist over the eastern conus. While we will be
monitoring numerous shortwave rotating into the northeast which will
present a number of snow threats, model agreement remains poor on
exact timing, placement and intensity of each shortwave. However, we
have higher confidence in a period of below normal temperatures
impacting eastern ny western new england Thursday - Friday.

We start off the extended Wednesday night with the potent, closed
upper level trough responsible for the snow event Tuesday positioned
east of our area. Northwest flow behind this trough should lead to
cold air advection and the start of cold temperatures in our region.

H850 isotherms fall to -15c to 18c and low temperatures are expected
to fall into the teens in the valley and single digits elsewhere.

Such cold air flowing over the relatively warm lakes could lead to
continued lake effect snow, especially in the adirondacks and mohawk
valley.

High pressure tries to nose in from canada during the day Thursday
and the change in flow regime plus subsidence should suppress the
lake effect snow bands. The incoming high could lead to a slight
pressure gradient leading to somewhat breezy winds. Thus, wind
chills Wed night into Thursday could fall below zero, especially in
the hill towns elevations. Wind chills in the adirondacks could even
fall into the negative teens so we'll be keeping a close eye if any
wind chill advisory headlines will be needed.

Chilly temperatures remain in placement Thursday - Friday with high
temperatures likely only rising into the 20s and lows in the
teens single digits which is about 10 - 15 degrees below normal for
mid - december. Our next shortwave exits the great lakes and heads
into our area bringing the next threat for snow Friday - Saturday.

While some moisture is associated with this disturbance, poor model
agreement remains on placement, timing and intensity giving us a low
confidence forecast on snow potential. However, we increased pops to
slight chance and even chance to reflect this threat.

Height rising are possible in the wake of this trough leading to the
flow regime shifting to W or even SW with temperatures rebounding
closer to normal heading into the weekend. However, additional
shortwaves are expected to traverse the northeast late in the
weekend into early next week which will once again bring additional
threats for snow. Moisture look lackluster at this time so any
threats should be of the lighter variety.

Aviation 06z Monday through Friday
Vfr conditions are expected the remainder of the overnight and
into the day on Monday. With an upper level trough overhead and
lake-effect snow upstream of the area, there will continue to
bkn-ovc CIGS around 4-9 kft, ESP for kgfl kalb. Otherwise,
light and variable winds or s-sw winds of around 5 kts is
expected through the overnight hours with no precipitation
expected.

Daylight hours on Monday, there will be sct-bkn CIGS around 4-6
kft with no precip through the day. Westerly winds will be
around 10 kts. Some mid level clouds may increase towards
evening as the next storm system approaches from the west.

Chance of snow appears to be after this TAF forecast cycle.

Outlook...

Monday night: high operational impact. Definite sn.

Tuesday: high operational impact. Definite sn.

Tuesday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of shsn.

Wednesday: moderate operational impact. Breezy chance of shsn.

Wednesday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Thursday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Thursday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of shsn.

Friday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shsn.

Hydrology
No hydrologic problems are expected through the week ahead.

Cold weather with periods of snow and snow showers are forecast.

Ice will form and thicken on area lakes and rivers and some
river gauges may start to show erroneous readings due to ice by
the end of the week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs
on our website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... Winter storm watch from late tonight through late Tuesday
night for nyz032-033-038-039-041>043-050-082>084.

Winter weather advisory until 7 am est this morning for nyz032-
033.

Ma... None.

Vt... Winter storm watch from late tonight through late Tuesday
night for vtz013>015.

Synopsis... Okeefe
near term... Frugis bgm okeefe
short term... Okeefe
long term... Speciale
aviation... Frugis bgm
hydrology... Okeefe


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 22 mi83 min 34°F 1014 hPa21°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 55 mi53 min WSW 5.1 G 8.9 35°F 47°F1015.3 hPa (+0.0)
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 55 mi68 min WSW 18 G 23 39°F 2 ft26°F

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY6 mi60 minVar 310.00 miOvercast34°F19°F54%1014.7 hPa
Newburgh / Stewart, NY15 mi68 minW 810.00 miOvercast32°F23°F69%1014.9 hPa
Montgomery, Orange County Airport, NY21 mi59 minSW 810.00 miOvercast32°F21°F64%1014.8 hPa

Wind History from POU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4E4CalmCalmCalmS3CalmSW9SW12SW9SW14
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmN4N4N3CalmNW4N4N4N4N3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoW3SW6SW6SW3SE4CalmCalmCalmSW3SW8SW6SW65S6S6SW3SW4SW4CalmSW3CalmSW4SW3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Poughkeepsie, Hudson River, New York
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Poughkeepsie
Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Mon -- 12:31 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:20 AM EST     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:13 AM EST     3.10 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:07 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 01:45 PM EST     0.26 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:25 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:27 PM EST     2.97 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.3-0.10.10.61.42.22.83.132.51.91.40.90.40.30.71.422.62.92.92.621.4

Tide / Current Tables for Hyde Park, Hudson River, New York
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Hyde Park
Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Mon -- 12:31 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:46 AM EST     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:39 AM EST     3.19 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:07 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 02:11 PM EST     0.26 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:25 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:53 PM EST     3.06 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.1-0.10.41.11.92.63.13.22.82.21.61.10.60.30.51.11.82.52.93.12.82.31.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.