Sunrise 6:11 AM   Sunset 7:39 PM Moonrise 12:29 PM   Moonset 3:15 AM

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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 343 Pm Edt Tue Apr 16 2024
Tonight - NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N late. Seas 1 ft or less. Wed - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the afternoon. Wed night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft after midnight. Showers.Thu - E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers.Thu night - E winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to around 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers in the evening. Patchy drizzle. Fri - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy drizzle in the morning. Fri night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Sat - W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Sat night - NW winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Sun - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Sun night - NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.

ANZ300 343 Pm Edt Tue Apr 16 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - High pressure builds in overnight. A slow moving warm front then approaches from the southwest tomorrow and moves through the area into Thursday. High pressure briefly builds in for Friday before a cold front passes through Friday night into Saturday morning. High pressure then follows from Saturday afternoon through early next week.

FXUS61 KALY 161720 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 120 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will bring fair weather with mild temperatures this afternoon, with clear and cool conditions tonight.
Low pressure approaching from the southwest will bring increasing clouds Wednesday, with some showers for Wednesday night through Thursday along with cooler temperatures. An approaching cold front will bring additional showers late Friday into Saturday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/

UPDATE
As of 1245 PM EDT...A high amplitude ridge continues to build in today from the Southeast/Mid Atlantic State and Ontario, as a mid and upper level low slowly moves across the Canadian Maritimes. A sfc high is building in from the northern Great Lakes Region/s-central Ontario with strong subsidence for mostly sunny/sunny skies. A few-scattered fair weather cumulus have formed from the Capital Region/Berkshires north and east.

The 12Z KALY sounding has the top of the mixed layer to 750-725 hPa. With strong northwest flow and deep mixing expected we could see some gusts in the 20-30+ mph range over the western New England higher terrain and the Capital Region this afternoon. It will be breezy and seasonably pleasant for mid- April. We tweaked the winds based on observations with west to northwest winds 10-18 mph with some gusts 25-35 mph. Max temps will be in the upper 50s to lower/mid 60s in the valleys with mainly upper 40s to mid 50s over the hills/mtns. Overall, a nice mid April afternoon for the forecast area.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
The combination of a dry air mass in place, mainly clear skies and light to calm winds should promote excellent radiational cooling tonight, particularly across the southern Adirondacks/upper Hudson Valley. Min temps may be slightly cooler than this morning, with some pockets of lower/mid 20s possible in these areas. Elsewhere, lows should range from the upper 20s to mid/upper 30s.

Surface high pressure will shift off the New England coast Wednesday, as low pressure slowly approaches from the west.
Model consensus favors upper level confluent flow persisting across the northeast states, which should maintain high pressure just off the New England coast, and also allow incoming upper level shortwave to shear south and west of the region. Showers should approach the mid Hudson Valley/SE Catskills and possibly the far western Mohawk Valley prior to sunset, with showers then slowly expanding north and east Wednesday night. High temperatures Wednesday should reach the lower/mid 60s in valley areas, and 55-60 across higher terrain areas. Lows Wednesday night in the upper 30s to lower/mid 40s.

The showers may dissipate before reaching portions of southern VT, the upper Hudson Valley and portions of the southern Adirondacks, where it may remain dry into Thursday. Elsewhere, expect at least spotty showers or light rain Thursday, decreasing during Thursday night. With clouds and some showers, temperatures should remain cool Thursday, mainly in the 50s, with some areas where showers persist possibly barely reaching 50. The mildest temperatures may be the upper Hudson Valley, southern Adirondacks into southern VT where showers may remain limited and a few breaks of sun could develop. In these areas, high temps may reach the upper 50s to lower 60s. Lows Thursday night generally in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
The extended forecast period begins with an approaching cold front from the eastern Great Lakes Region, Ohio Valley and the St Lawrence River Valley that will increase clouds during the morning with scattered to numerous showers in the afternoon into the early evening. Enough low-level convergence occurs with the front with modest upper level dynamics for light to moderate rainfall amounts.
The consensus for the best synoptic forcing and lift with the front and approaching upper level trough based on the latest medium range guidance and ensembles is in the late afternoon through the night time period. Total rainfall looks to be in the couple of tenths to half inch range. Highs on Friday will be near seasonal normals in the upper 50s to lower 60s in the valleys with upper 40s to mid 50s over the hills and mtns. Lows Friday night with the cold advection with the first boundary will be in the 40s with some upper 30s over the southern Dacks/southern Greens.

The first half of the weekend will be unsettled, as a broad mid and upper level trough will be over eastern Canada and the Northeast.
The cyclonic vorticity advection with the upper level low and secondary cold front will bring additional isolated to scattered showers during the day with perhaps some snow showers over the western Adirondacks at night. 850 hPa temps will run a little below normal and with the brisk west/northwest flow expect max temps to run below normal with 40s over the mtns and 50s over the rest of the forecast area with some near 60F readings near KPOU. A chilly night is expected Sat night in the cold advection regime with lows in the 30s with some 20s over the higher terrain. The second half of the weekend will feature improving and drier conditions. Mixed clouds with sunshine and brisk conditions with below normal temps are anticipated, as a broad sfc anticylone builds in from the Plains and Great Lakes Region. Max temps will run below normal by 5-10 degrees with 40s to 50s across the region.

The mid and upper level flow becomes less amplified and more zonal Sunday night through Monday with moderating temps. Max temps will trend closer to seasonable readings with dry weather persisting.
Temps will be less chilly Monday night, as a warm front approaches from a northern stream disturbance. Clouds increase Tuesday with chances of showers expected in the afternoon. We will also monitor a southern stream coastal disturbance which looks unphased at this time. The NBM temps for the end of the long term look seasonable for late April with mid 50s to lower 60s for highs.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Through 18Z Wednesday...VFR conditions expected at all terminals.
Few-sct diurnal fair wx cu st 5-7 kft will dissipate this evening, with clear skies across the region after 00Z Wed. A frontal system will approach from the southwest, bringing increased cloud coverage, initially at POU by 09-12Z Wed, and at ALB/GFL/PSF by 12-15Z Wed.

West-northwest winds at 10-15 kt gusting 15-25 kt will continue into this evening, before diminishing to less than 5 kt from the northwest to northeast after 00-03Z Wed. Winds increase out of the northeast at 5-10 kt after 09-15Z Wed, except at POU where light and variable winds are expected ahead of the approaching front.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

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Poughkeepsie
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