Friday, October20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Highland, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 6:07PM Friday October 20, 2017 12:21 PM EDT (16:21 UTC) Moonrise 7:50AMMoonset 7:00PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1024 Am Edt Fri Oct 20 2017
Today..NW winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..N winds around 5 kt, becoming S around 5 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..S winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight.
Tue..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the afternoon.
Tue night..S winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
ANZ300 1024 Am Edt Fri Oct 20 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure builds in through Saturday, sliding offshore Sunday and Monday. A slow moving frontal system will then approach the waters Tuesday with a cold frontal passage early Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Highland, NY
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location: 41.7, -73.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 201410
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
1010 am edt Fri oct 20 2017

Synopsis
An area of high pressure will build in from the south and west
today into the upcoming weekend, resulting in continued dry and
mild conditions.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 1000 am edt, winds have become breezy out of the north-
northwest this morning behind the dry frontal passage last
night with temperatures currently sitting in the 50s to near 60
degrees. This will allow for a sunny and dry day today, which
remains on par with our current forecast. Further details
regarding the forecast are below...

some patches of thin high clouds are pushing south out of
canada across our region. The sky will trend to sunny through
this morning as cold advection from the north builds into our
region behind the dry cold front.

Sources of guidance show decent winds at the boundary layer but
there are questions about how much of that wind can mix to the
surface. Winds already a bit steady and persistent before
daybreak. Mixing should help some of the winds to reach the
surface and north to northwest winds will be breezy at times
late this morning through afternoon.

There are indications that a boundary layer thermal gradient
sets up right in the middle of our forecast area, implying high
temperatures in northern areas could be considerably cooler
than in southern areas. Differences in guidance as to where that
gradient sets up result in some uncertainty but generally highs
in the 60s today with a few lower 70s southern areas and around
60 southern adirondacks.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Sunday night
High pressure controls the weather through the period and builds
east. Warm advection is expected to begin Saturday and continue
Sunday but with the upper ridge and low level ridge axes so
close to our region, winds should be quite light and it should
be quite dry through a deep layer.

Some thin high clouds will begin to filter into the region
Sunday and Sunday night well ahead of the developing system to
our west. How much warming we see Saturday and Sunday will
depend on how much the boundary layer warms and how much mixing
we can get with potentially such light south winds.

Highs Saturday around 70 to lower 70s but some mid 60s southern
areas. Highs Sunday in the lower to mid 70s. Nighttime lows look
to be on the cooler side of guidance with the clear sky, near
calm winds and such a dry atmosphere.

Long term Monday through Thursday
Large scale amplification of the upper pattern across north america
will continue through this period, resulting in an increasingly
active pattern featuring more rain chances, and a trend toward
cooler temperatures for the local area.

Models seem to have come into slightly better agreement regarding
timing of initial PV anomaly along the gulf coast lower ms valley
region tracking north and deamplifying ahead of digging trough from
northern plains region, with height falls spreading across the
northeast Tuesday-Wednesday. This suggests that chances for rain
should increase, perhaps as early as late Monday or Monday night
across southern western areas, with the potential for a more
widespread, soaking rainfall Tuesday-Tuesday night. Ample low level
flow from the gulf of mexico and atlantic ocean, combined with the
slow approach of the upper level trough suggest some locally heavy
rainfall could occur.

Model uncertainty increases for Wednesday-Thursday, as the 00z 20
ecmwf suggests a formidable upper level impulse closes off and
tracks north northeast from DELMARVA Thursday, with an attendant
surface low developing and tracking north northwest into new
england. This would bring another bout of widespread rain to much of
the region, especially for areas near and east of the hudson river.

The 00z 20 gfs, gefs, and gem remain much more progressive with
little indication of such a feature. For now, will keep chance pops
for Wed night-thu, but no higher at this time.

As for temperatures, still remaining well above normal for mon-mon
nt, with highs reaching 70-75 in valleys, and 65-70 across higher
terrain, and overnight lows mainly in the 50s, although some areas
may actually hold near or above 60 if clouds wind persist. Still
mild Tuesday-Tuesday night, with highs 65-70 in valleys, 60-65
across higher elevations, and lows Tuesday night ranging from the
mid 40s across northwest areas, to the lower mid 50s south and east.

Cooling becomes more evident Wednesday, with highs mainly in the 50s
and 60s, with highs Thursday only in the 50s, although some areas
may only remain in the 40s if steady rain occurs. Overnight lows wed
nt Thu am mainly in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Aviation 14z Friday through Tuesday
High pressure will build in from the south and west on today
into tonight, resulting in clear skies and continuedVFR
conditions.

There is a slight chance that some patchy ground fog could form
before daybreak Saturday at climatologically favored kgfl and
kpsf, but for now, have kept out explicitly with just mention of
some shallow fog. If any develops, it likely would be shallow
and transient.

Winds will initially west-northwest at 5-10 kt early this
morning. Winds speeds will increase by mid to late morning
once better mixing commences, with around 10 kt gusting to near
20 kt occasionally. Winds will then decrease rapidly around and
just after sunset, becoming variable in direction at less than 5
kt for tonight.

Have included low level wind shear for kgfl and kpou tafs
through 13z Fri until better mixing commences, as surface winds
at these locations generally remain below 6 kt, while winds
around 2000 ft agl increase from the west northwest to around 30
kt.

Outlook...

Friday night-Monday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Monday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra.

Tuesday: moderate operational impact. Likely shra.

Fire weather
Northwest to north wind gusts will approach 25 mph this
afternoon...

an area of high pressure will build in from the south and west
today into the upcoming weekend, resulting in continued dry and
mild conditions.

Rh values will fall to between 30 and 45 percent this afternoon
and Saturday afternoon. Nighttime rh values will range between
75 and 100 percent.

Northwest winds at 15 mph or less this morning will become north
to northwest at 15 mph midday and gusts could approach 25 mph
midday through this afternoon. Winds diminish to variable at
less than 15 mph tonight them become west to south at less than
15 mph Saturday.

Hydrology
No precipitation is expected through at least the weekend
thanks to persistent high pressure, with river stream flows
remaining at normal to below normal seasonal levels.

The next chance of rainfall arrives early next week, as a
widespread rainfall is possible associated with a slow-moving
frontal system. It is much too early for specific details, but
some heavy rain may occur in the Tuesday to Wednesday time
frame.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs
on our website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Nas
near term... Nas jvm
short term... Nas
long term... Kl
aviation... Kl
fire weather... Nas
hydrology... Nas


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 22 mi171 min 56°F 1021 hPa43°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 55 mi129 min NW 4.1 G 7 63°F 65°F1020.3 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 55 mi152 min W 5.8 G 7.8 63°F 1 ft44°F

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY6 mi28 minW 710.00 miFair66°F34°F30%1020.1 hPa
Newburgh / Stewart, NY15 mi36 minWNW 9 G 1620.00 miClear64°F39°F40%1021.3 hPa
Montgomery, Orange County Airport, NY21 mi27 minW 910.00 miFair66°F39°F37%1020.7 hPa

Wind History from POU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW8
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SW7SW9S5S4CalmCalmCalmSE4CalmCalmCalmS3CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3W7
1 day ago35W6CalmS3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS34SW10
G19
2 days agoCalmCalmSW5SW6S7S4S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5SE3S3CalmS4CalmSW6SW6SW633

Tide / Current Tables for Poughkeepsie, Hudson River, New York
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Poughkeepsie
Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Fri -- 01:27 AM EDT     3.49 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:49 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:59 AM EDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:51 PM EDT     3.79 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:00 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:26 PM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
33.43.432.21.40.70.2-0.10.31.22.23.13.63.83.52.81.91.20.500.10.81.7

Tide / Current Tables for Hyde Park, Hudson River, New York
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Hyde Park
Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Fri -- 01:53 AM EDT     3.59 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:49 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 08:25 AM EDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:17 PM EDT     3.91 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 06:59 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:52 PM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.83.43.63.32.61.81.10.4-0.100.81.82.83.53.93.83.22.41.50.80.2-00.41.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.