Tuesday, February20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Yarmouth Port, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:26AMSunset 5:22PM Tuesday February 20, 2018 10:49 AM EST (15:49 UTC) Moonrise 10:07AMMoonset 11:22PM Illumination 28% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ231 Cape Cod Bay- 716 Am Est Tue Feb 20 2018
Today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Areas of fog this morning, then patchy fog this afternoon. Vsby 1 nm or less, increasing to 1 to 3 nm this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Areas of dense fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain.
Thu night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of rain and snow.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of rain.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of rain.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of rain.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Am Est Tue Feb 20 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Persistent sw flow expected through Wed. A cold front will cross the waters Wed night. Strong high pres builds to the north Thu as a wave of low pres tracks to the south. The high pres moves east of nova scotia Fri with a frontal system moving into the waters. Another high pres builds to the north Sat. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Yarmouth Port, MA
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location: 41.71, -70.29     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 201524
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
1024 am est Tue feb 20 2018

Synopsis
A mild southwest flow will bring unseasonably mild temperatures
this afternoon, with record warmth possible Wednesday. A cold
front moves through Wednesday night followed by much colder
weather Thursday. A wave of low pressure tracking along the
front may bring some rain Thursday, possibly mixed with snow in
the interior. An active wet weather pattern Friday through the
weekend during which there is the possibility of mixed
precipitation, freezing rain.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Dense fog advisory was extended to 11 am on the ri coast and the
islands. Visibility had lingered at 1 4 to 1 2 mile in this
area, but was moving up to 3 4 mile at newport so there is
reason to expect the advisory will wind down soon... If not 11 am
then sometime around the midday. Depending on observations near
11 am, we may extend the fog headline into early afternoon.

12z NAM cross sections show surface moisture thinning over the
interior, but with patches of higher rh values 850-900 mb.

Satellite imagery shows low clouds across much of ct-ri-se mass
late morning with patchy low and mid level clouds farther west.

Based on this we continue to expect a clearing trend across
northern mass, and possibly across parts of northern ct,
northern ri and interior SE mass. South coast should lose much
of the fog, but the clouds may linger due to southwest winds
moving moist air... Dewpts 50-52... Over the ocean and then
onshore.

Where skies have been clearing, temperatures have climbed to the
mid to upper 50s. The hourly temperature grids at several sites
on the north and south shores were 2-4f milder than earlier
forecast. We nudged MAX temps up a few degrees in those areas.

Low clouds and lingering fog and a wind off the ocean will keep
the south coast areas around 50 or the low 50s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Wednesday
Tonight...

mild SW flow continues tonight. Abundant low level moisture will
lead to areas of stratus and fog redeveloping, most prevalent
along the south coast. Dry air in the mid levels so patchy
drizzle possible. Temps may remain at or above 50 degrees
tonight, except 40s CAPE islands and immediate south coast.

Wednesday...

persistent SW flow continues ahead of approaching cold front.

Areas of stratus and fog expected to burn off with at least
partial sunshine developing by afternoon. Soundings indicate
slightly deeper mixing than today, up to 925 mb where temps
15-16c. With full sunshine, potential would exist for low to mid
70s in the interior. However, low clouds expected to linger
through the morning which may limit full potential so expected
highs upper 60s to lower 70s away from the south coast which
would still comfortably establish record highs at bos,bdl,orh
and close call at pvd. These temps are up to 30 degrees above
normal. SW flow with gusts to 25 mph will keep temps in the 50s
along the immediate south coast.

Cold front approaching from the west may bring a few late day
showers to western ma.

Long term Wednesday night through Monday
* highlights...

- showers Wednesday night
- cold rain, wet snowflakes Thursday
- active weather pattern Friday through the weekend
- watching for potential mixed precipitation, freezing rain
- pattern change early next week
* overview...

persistent SE CONUS sub-tropical h5 ridge maintained by parked n-
central pacific split flow and downstream h5 trof over the W conus
generating a warm-moist atmospheric river from the central pacific
ne to SE canada. But nothing lasts forever. Breakdown of upstream
pattern, thermal wind flattens through which impulses stretch, dip
southward. A brief midweek warm-up is followed by an active weather
pattern late week into the following week. Along a parent frontal
baroclinic zone, sulked s, stretching across the NE conus, thermal
profiles in question as intriguingly ensembles signal an evolving
blocky N atlantic pattern per forecast strong -nao into march. Will
hit on targets of opportunity below. Ensemble guidance preferred.

* discussion...

Wednesday night into Thursday...

leaning with the cold front pushing s, suppressed via high pressure,
sinking mid-level air. Showers overnight. Attention turns to a wave
ejecting along the baroclinic zone into Thursday. Daytime event, 2m
temperatures wavering around 34. An over-running event, perhaps some
vertically-staggered w-e banding pressed up against the 1040+ high,
as cool, dry air undercuts. Expect a cold rain event, wet snowflakes
mixed in, but no accumulation. More activity outcomes closer to the
s-coast of new england.

Thursday night...

hold with an influential near 1040 high and hold off on any weather.

With that, light winds, mostly clear conditions, favor radiational
cooling and will lean towards cooler 2m temperature guidance.

Friday into Friday night...

lifting warm frontal disturbance with surface high pressure settled
to the e. Noting ageostrophic wind profiles, wet-bulb temperatures,
low level thermal profiles, will be monitoring for potential shallow
cold air to lock-up briefly across N W ma especially within interior
sheltered valleys. Can't rule out a short period of freezing rain,
confidence gained via cips analogs. Otherwise rain and warming
temperatures, non-diurnal trend during the overnight period.

Saturday into Sunday...

more potent CONUS disturbance ahead of which high pressure builds
over E canada. Will be monitoring for precipitation-type issues once
again with the possibility of a near-shore secondary low developing
despite the thrust of stronger dynamics N W across the great lakes
region. Beyond 120 hours, notable ensemble member spread, confidence
low at this time. Cips analogs indicate freezing rain, mainly N W ma
per a top analog from early february 2008. Snows further N w.

Early next week...

perhaps a breather before the pattern begins to change as noted in
the overview section above.

Aviation 15z Tuesday through Saturday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Wednesday ... Moderate confidence.

This afternoon...

vfr most inland places. Lingering lifr CIGS over north central
mass should burn off. Ifr lifr CIGS and vsbys along the south
coast of ri and mass will slowly improve, but expect ifr or
low-end MVFR CIGS to linger there through the afternoon.

Sw winds with gusts up to 20 to 25 kts especially over SE areas
of new england.

Tonight...

stratus and patchy fog redeveloping with MVFR ifr conditions.

Areas of lifr along the south coast. Patchy drizzle.

Wednesday...

ifr MVFR to start, improving toVFR by afternoon. SW gusts to
25 kt.

Kbos terminal... Moderate confidence in taf. Improvement expected
into this morning,VFR through the day. Will lower to ifr this
evening and overnight, but given a SW wind will hold it there.

Kbdl terminal... Moderate confidence in taf. Web cam observations
across the area show improvement and presently the terminal is
vfr. Expect some lingering ifr-lifr conditions during sunrise
thenVFR with breezy SW winds much of today. Ifr-lifr conditions
returning this evening and overnight. Llws threat developing as
s winds become light.

Outlook Wednesday night through Saturday ... Moderate confidence.

Wednesday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Patchy
fg.

Wednesday night:VFR. Breezy. Chance ra.

Thursday:VFR. Chance ra, chance sn.

Thursday night:VFR. Slight chance ra, slight chance fzra,
slight chance sn, slight chance pl.

Friday:VFR. Chance ra, chance fzra, chance pl.

Friday night: MVFR ifr conditions possible. Chance ra, chance
fzra, patchy br.

Saturday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance ra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Wednesday ... High confidence.

Persistent SW flow. Modest low level jet over the waters through
wed but strong inversion will prevent winds from mixing down.

Expect gusts mostly below SCA but up to 20kt at times. Poor
vsbys in fog expected for most of the period, mainly over south
coastal waters.

Outlook Wednesday night through Saturday ...

Wednesday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Areas fog.

Local visibility 1 nm or less.

Wednesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Slight chance of rain.

Thursday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain.

Thursday night: winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain, slight
chance of freezing rain.

Friday: winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain, chance of
freezing rain.

Friday night: winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain.

Saturday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Chance of rain.

Climate
Record highest observed temperature for february... (since
records began)
boston... ... ... 73 (2 24 2017)
hartford... ... .73 (2 24 1985)
providence... ..72 (2 24 1985)
worcester... ... 69 (2 24 2017)
record high temperatures...

february... ... .2 20... ... 2 21
boston... ... ... 68 (1930) 63 (1906)
hartford... ... .69 (1930) 63 (1930)
providence... ..69 (1930) 63 (1930)
worcester... ... 65 (1930) 59 (1930)
record warmest min temperature...

february... ... .2 20... ... 2 21
boston... ... ... 46 (1930) 45 (1994)
hartford... ... .50 (1981) 49 (1981)
providence... ..48 (1981) 50 (1981)
worcester... ... 47 (1981) 43 (2002)
extreme high dew points...

dew point forecast has values in the 50s today and Wednesday.

February... ... .2 20... ... 2 21
boston... ... ... 54 (1991) 56 (1953)
hartford... ... .53 (1981) 55 (1989)
providence... ..58 (1939) 56 (1989)
worcester... ... 53 (1981) 54 (1953)

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... Dense fog advisory until 11 am est this morning for maz023-024.

Ri... Dense fog advisory until 11 am est this morning for riz006>008.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 7 pm est
Wednesday for anz235.

Small craft advisory until 7 pm est Wednesday for anz250-
254>256.

Synopsis... Kjc sipprell
near term... Wtb
short term... Kjc
long term... Sipprell
aviation... Wtb kjc sipprell
marine... Wtb kjc sipprell
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44090 9 mi50 min 37°F2 ft
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 15 mi65 min 2.9 48°F 1027 hPa48°F
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 20 mi60 min SW 16 G 18 43°F 38°F2 ft1026.9 hPa (+0.6)43°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 24 mi50 min 42°F 37°F1026.8 hPa (+0.0)
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 31 mi50 min SW 9.9 G 16 49°F 40°F1027.4 hPa (+0.0)
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 45 mi50 min SW 19 G 20 43°F 1026.8 hPa (+0.0)
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 46 mi50 min 51°F 40°F1026.6 hPa (+0.3)
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 47 mi50 min SW 13 G 15 49°F 1025.3 hPa (+0.0)
FRXM3 47 mi50 min 51°F 50°F
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 48 mi60 min SE 3.9 G 3.9 44°F 40°F3 ft1023.8 hPa (+0.3)

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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N4
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA2 mi54 minWSW 14 G 231.00 miFog/Mist52°F52°F100%1025.6 hPa
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA13 mi55 minWSW 130.25 miFog48°F48°F100%1027.1 hPa
Chatham, Chatham Municipal Airport, MA16 mi58 minSW 9 G 190.25 miFog46°F46°F100%1026.6 hPa
Provincetown Municipal Airport, MA21 mi54 minSSW 14 G 185.00 miFog/Mist46°F46°F100%1025.1 hPa

Wind History from HYA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS13
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SW10S11--S7SW10SW13
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SW13------------------SW14
G20
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1 day agoN17
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N12
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N9N9N5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm----S11S11S9SW9
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2 days ago4344SE5SE6SE5S9
G16
SE6SE7SE7SE6SE6SE10
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SE8SE6E53W6NW7NW14
G21
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NW13
G20
NW18
G28

Tide / Current Tables for Barnstable Harbor, Beach Point, Massachusetts
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Barnstable Harbor
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Tue -- 02:08 AM EST     9.98 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:29 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:39 AM EST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:07 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:28 PM EST     9.90 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:20 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:00 PM EST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:21 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
7.19109.58.163.81.80.40.21.646.48.49.79.78.66.64.42.30.6-0.10.83.1

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:19 AM EST     -0.07 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:17 AM EST     -4.39 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:11 AM EST     0.20 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:30 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:08 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 09:09 AM EST     4.24 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 12:27 PM EST     -0.05 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:37 PM EST     -4.50 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:21 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:34 PM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Tue -- 09:34 PM EST     4.28 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 10:23 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.6-2.4-3.8-4.4-4.2-3.3-1.32.73.84.243.31.9-2.1-3.6-4.4-4.4-3.8-2.423.54.24.23.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.