Monday, June18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Yarmouth Port, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:04AMSunset 8:20PM Monday June 18, 2018 5:19 PM EDT (21:19 UTC) Moonrise 10:34AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 29% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ231 Cape Cod Bay- 314 Pm Edt Mon Jun 18 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 pm edt this evening...
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms. Some tstms may produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..NW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Wed..W winds around 5 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat night..S winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 314 Pm Edt Mon Jun 18 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A cold front will approach the waters into this evening, sweeping through overnight ahead of which there is the possibility of showers and Thunderstorms, especially over the eastern waters. A weak wave of low pressure and wet weather is possible Wednesday night over the S waters, otherwise cooler and drier conditions beneath high pressure and northwesterly flow for the remainder of the week, while a warm front lifts north across the waters over the weekend. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Yarmouth Port, MA
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location: 41.71, -70.29     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 182011
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
411 pm edt Mon jun 18 2018

Synopsis
Heat and humidity will come to an end tonight as a cold front from
the northwest pushes through. A few strong thunderstorms are
possible especially across western ma and northern ct. A much nicer
day is on tap for Tuesday behind the cold front with plenty of
sunshine and much lower humidity. Low pressure passes off the south
coast Wednesday, with a chance of showers along the coast.

High pressure from canada brings dry weather Thursday and Friday. A
cold front them brings a chance of showers over the weekend,
followed by dry weather early next week.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
This afternoon and first half of the night...

heat... Southern new england remains on the edge of the upper level
ridge anchored over the great lakes. This has resulted in any cloud
debris from earlier convection to ride along the ridge and right
over southern new england. These clouds have been quite thick
especially during the heating of the day. Thus forecasted high temps
have not been realized, ESP across eastern ma. Went ahead and
knocked them down a few degrees earlier today, and have brought it
more in line to ongoing conditions. Dewpoints continue to rise this
afternoon with several sites now 70f. With the warm temps and
increasing dewpoints we have seen heat index values in the low to
upper 90s across the ct river valley, and lower merrimack. Went ahead
and dropped norfolk and suffolk counties as they have been just shy
and the clouds will limit any more heating. Have seen a few 100f
heat indices across bdl and baf so will keep heat advisory in that
region for the rest of the day. Will leave it for portions of
middlesex and essex as there values are on the edge.

Convection... Showers and thunderstorms continue to fire up across
northern new england and upstate ny this afternoon. Better moisture
and lift are still just outside of the region as of 300 pm. Per spc
meso-analysis the higher k values are starting to push into the
region and with approaching pre frontal trough in msas mslp should
start seeing a few storms to pop-up here in the next two hours.

Overall threat for severe weather still seems a bit marginal as the
environment is not favorable. Mid-level lapse rates are still poor
with just 5-5.5 c km over the region with 0-6km shear near 25-35
kts. CAPE values have increased to over 2000 j kg thanks to the high
dewpoints, but these values will only last for a few more hours as
cin will begin to mix into the atmosphere and we lose heating of the
day. Still have to watch for the occasional strong to severe storm
as directional shear is pretty good per bufkit sounding profile.

Best location for any severe weather will be across western ma and
northern ct which had the best heating today and highest probs from
href, hrrr and sref. Gusty winds and heavy rainfall are still the
main threats for today. Cannot rule out a microburst potential, but
believe that the low level lapse rates marginal (7.5 c km) and dcape
above 1000 j kg. Heavy rainfall is most likely as pwat values are
over 1.5-1.8 inches and will continue to increase into tonight.

Late tonight...

approaching cold front from the north will swing through the
overnight hours. Guidance continues to indicate that severe
potential will be less as the atmosphere will struggle to
recuperate due to ongoing upcoming convection. However still cannot
rule out a rumble of thunder overnight as k values are still high
and showalters drop to be 0c. Still some lingering mu cape, combined
with the high pwats, warm cloud processes and increasing llj, may
have to watch for heavy rainfall. Especially as the dewpoints
continue to increase overnight and pool up against the front. Precip
should wind down after 2-5 am due to fropa. Still expect a muggy
night on tap as the true dry air wont work its way into the region
until Tuesday.

Aside from the precip, will have to watch for fog and stratus across
the south coast. Persistent south southwest flow will continue
overnight and with high dewpoints over the cooler waters could
develop areas of fog. This is supported by the narre-tl and hrrr.

Best region for low vsbys will be the CAPE and islands, as well as
the immediate south coast.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through 6 pm Tuesday
Tomorrow...

a few lingering showers early Tuesday as a cold front finally pushes
offshore. Dewpoints and k values will be quickly dropping in the
late morning into afternoon and thus expect clearing skies and dry
weather. Northwest winds will be gusty in the morning before high
pressure moves into the area. Gusts to near 20-25 mph are possible.

Otherwise a pleasant weather day.

Long term Tuesday night through Monday
Big picture...

longwave pattern shows above normal heights across the western and
southern usa with a persistant trough over the great lakes and
northeast usa. Northern stream jet flows from far northern canada
southeast across new england eventually moving north of us by the
weekend. A shortwave embedded in this flow moves across new england
wed night or Thursday. A weaker southern flow across the central usa
carries a closed low from the northern rockies to the western great
lakes. The low then ejects into the northern stream and crosses new
england during the weekend.

Mass fields over the eastern usa are similar through Saturday, then
diverge. Thermal fields agree on cooler temps Thursday-Friday
followed by warming temps over the weekend, then trending cooler
again early next week. Forecast confidence is high through Friday,
trending to moderate over the weekend.

Concerns...

Tuesday night-Wednesday...

high pressure builds over the region Tuesday night, then shifts
offshore Wednesday. Northern stream shortwave dives southeast into
new england. This shortwave will be supported by a 105 knot jet and
drive a surface cold front toward our area. The jet may also provide
enough upper divergence and lift to support a developing low along
the mid atlantic coast late in the day Wednesday or Wednesday night.

W values climb to 1.5 inches along the south coast Wednesday evening
before drier air pushes south across new england overnight.

Expect dry weather Tuesday night and Wednesday. The mid atlantic
system mostly passes offshore, but the upper lift may allow for rain
to graze the south coast.

Thursday-Friday...

high pressure builds over the region with dry weather and cooler
temperatures.

Saturday through Monday...

midwest upper low and associated surface system eject into the
northern stream by Saturday, then cross new england Sunday. Rain out
ahead of the system arrives Saturday, with rain along the cold front
Sunday afternoon or night. Pw values increase again, with 2 inch
values possible Saturday night and Sunday.

Aviation 20z Monday through Saturday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday ... Moderate confidence.

Before 00z... VFR through early afternoon. Low risk sct MVFR-
ifr along s-coast in fog stratus. Sct shra tsra developing by
20z, mainly interior ma ct. Ra +ra possible along with ifr
cigs and vsbys. W g30-40 kts possible with storms as well.

Tonight...

sct shra tsra dissipating, as late as 3z, again mainly interior
ma ct. Continued ra +ra threats along with ifr CIGS and vsbys.

OtherwiseVFR. SW winds through early morning, llws for s-coast
along with MVFR-lifr CIGS and vsbys in fog and stratus, before
winds shift NW by Tuesday morning.

Tuesday...

vfr conditions expected. Breezy out of the nw.

Kbos terminal...

shra tsra into terminal roughly 22z. Showers thereafter.

Kbdl terminal...

sct shra tsra into the terminal roughly 21z. Showers
thereafter.

Outlook Tuesday night through Saturday ... Moderate confidence.

Tuesday night through Wednesday:VFR.

Wednesday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance shra.

Thursday through Friday:VFR.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday ... High confidence.

Tonight... Near shore southwest wind gusts should diminish a
bit by late evening... But marginal small craft wind gusts and 3
to 6 foot seas should persist longer over the open waters. An
isolated t-storm or two is possible tonight.

Tuesday...

lingering small craft swell across our southern most outer-waters
diminishes by late morning. Otherwise... Winds seas should remain
below small craft advisory thresholds.

Outlook Tuesday night through Saturday ... Moderate confidence.

Tuesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas less than 5 feet. Local
visibility 1 to 3 nm in patchy fog.

Wednesday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas less than 5 feet.

Wednesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas less than 5 feet. Chance
of rain showers.

Thursday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas less than 5 feet. Slight
chance of rain showers.

Thursday night through Friday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas less
than 5 feet.

Climate
Here are the record and forecast highs for Monday june 18...

bos ... 94 (1907 & 1929) ... Forecast high 95
bdl ... 95 (1957 & 1994) ... Forecast high 96
pvd ... 94 (1929) ... Forecast high 88
orh ... 93 (1907 & 1929) ... Forecast high 91

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... Heat advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for ctz002.

Air quality ALERT until 10 pm edt this evening for ctz002>004.

Ma... Air quality ALERT until 11 pm edt this evening for maz003>007-
009>016-026.

Heat advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for maz003-005-006-
010-011.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for
anz230>237-251.

Small craft advisory until 4 am edt Tuesday for anz250.

Small craft advisory until 10 am edt Tuesday for anz254>256.

Synopsis... Wtb dunten
near term... Dunten
short term... Dunten
long term... Wtb
aviation... Wtb dunten
marine... Wtb dunten
climate... Staff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44090 9 mi50 min 61°F3 ft
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 15 mi95 min 4.1 76°F 1012 hPa69°F
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 15 mi40 min SSW 19 G 21 65°F 64°F1011.3 hPa63°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 24 mi50 min 67°F 65°F1011.7 hPa
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 31 mi50 min SSW 8.9 G 17 67°F 66°F1012.5 hPa
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 35 mi90 min SSW 21 G 27 64°F 4 ft1009.3 hPa (-2.3)62°F
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 45 mi80 min SSW 23 G 24 65°F 1012.1 hPa (-3.0)
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 46 mi50 min 78°F 68°F1011.1 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 47 mi50 min SSW 15 G 21 76°F 1010.5 hPa
FRXM3 47 mi50 min 78°F 63°F
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 48 mi90 min S 12 G 14 70°F 61°F2 ft1008.1 hPa (-2.9)64°F

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA2 mi24 minSSW 19 G 2410.00 miFair and Breezy74°F66°F79%1010.6 hPa
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA13 mi25 minSW 2310.00 miFair and Windy73°F66°F78%1011.2 hPa
Chatham, Chatham Municipal Airport, MA16 mi28 minSW 11 G 2210.00 miOvercast69°F64°F87%1011.8 hPa
Provincetown Municipal Airport, MA21 mi24 minSSW 22 G 2910.00 miFair and Breezy72°F64°F79%1009.2 hPa

Wind History from HYA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS9S7S5SW6S6S6S6SW7SW8SW9SW9SW10SW12SW16
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1 day agoSW7SW8SW5SW7SW5SW4W5SW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4N7N5N7NE4S5SE65S8S9
2 days agoN4CalmW3SW4SW5SW6W11SW9SW9W8SW7SW7W7W6NW6NW8NW7NW8N8NE5N7NW4S5SW8

Tide / Current Tables for Barnstable Harbor, Beach Point, Massachusetts
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Barnstable Harbor
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:28 AM EDT     11.57 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:11 AM EDT     -1.25 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:34 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:12 PM EDT     10.42 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:31 PM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.37.29.811.411.410.17.85.12.3-0.1-1.2-0.61.446.99.310.4108.66.54.11.80.30.3

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:24 AM EDT     -0.21 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:30 AM EDT     -4.95 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:40 AM EDT     0.21 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:36 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:47 AM EDT     4.72 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 02:19 PM EDT     -0.04 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:06 PM EDT     -4.56 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 08:10 PM EDT     0.02 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:07 PM EDT     4.26 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.52-2.5-4.1-4.9-4.9-4.2-2.71.93.74.54.74.43.61.9-2.7-4.1-4.6-4.3-3.3-1.32.83.94.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.