Monday, October23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Put-in-Bay, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:55AMSunset 6:40PM Monday October 23, 2017 2:12 AM EDT (06:12 UTC) Moonrise 10:22AMMoonset 8:24PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ163 Lake Erie Open Waters From Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Reno Beach To The Islands Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- 939 Pm Edt Sun Oct 22 2017
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..South winds 15 to 25 knots. A chance of rain late in the morning. Rain in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Monday night..South winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. Rain. Waves building to 3 to 5 feet.
Tuesday..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Tuesday night..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Showers likely in the evening, then a chance of showers overnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely during the day, then a chance of showers Wednesday night. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
LEZ163 Expires:201710230815;;263232 FZUS61 KCLE 230139 GLFLE Open Lake Forecast for Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland OH 939 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Erie Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure 29.20 inches will track north across Lake Erie Monday evening, forcing a cold front across the lake. A trough of low pressure 29.50 inches will linger over the lake into Wednesday morning. A ridge averaging 29.90 inches will build over the lake Wednesday night then move off to the east Thursday night. Another cold front will push east across the lake late Friday. LEZ162>165-230815-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Put-in-Bay, OH
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location: 41.71, -83.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 230123
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
923 pm edt Sun oct 22 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure developing near the gulf coast will deepen as it tracks
across northwest ohio towards lake huron Monday evening, pulling a
strong cold front east across the area. A trough will linger across
the great lakes through mid-week pulling a secondary cold front
across the area. A warm front will lift north early Friday
followed by another cold front heading into the weekend.

Near term through Monday night
Have slowed down the onset of precipitation a bit for the entire
area for Monday. There may be a few spotty showers around in the
early-mid morning hours, but the main swath of more moderate
rain does not look to arrive across western areas until later in
the morning with far eastern areas possibly not seeing any rain
until the evening hours. A large area of ongoing convection
along the gulf coast may limit the amount of moisture that will
be able to advect north into the region ahead of the front. Have
therefore lowered total QPF amounts slightly.

Previous discussion...

widespread rain and falling temperatures on the way to start the
week. An upper level trough extending to the gulf coast will curl
northeast towards the great lakes on Monday in advance of a stronger
trough digging south out of canada. Cloud cover will be on the
increase late tonight into Monday as deep moisture advects north
towards the region. Surface low pressure will deepen as it tracks
north towards the area, moving across extreme northwest ohio on
Monday afternoon then rapidly deepening as it reaches lake huron
Monday night. Widespread rain will overspread the area on Monday
with strong upper dynamics as the upper level trough becomes
negatively tilted and absorbed into the deepening trough to the
west. Precipitation with this system will range from a half
inch in the east to almost an inch and a half towards toledo. A
swath of heavier rain will be focused just northwest of our area
where stronger frontal forcing will align with a persistent
area of mid-level deformation.

Lowered high on Monday across the western half of the area where
precipitation will arrive by midday. Temperatures are tricky given
breezy southeast winds ahead of the system, but thickening
cloud cover and increasing showers will have a limiting effect.

Downsloping winds will be something to watch along the erie pa
lakeshore late afternoon into evening as winds aloft near 925mb
increase to around 50 knots. Hopefully the mixing depth will
limit gusts to 40 mph but a few stronger gusts are possible
prior to the onset of rain which will help to stabilize the
boundary layer.

A dry slot will get pulled north across the area on Monday evening
and have lowered pops and QPF for Monday night. Showers still likely
but breaks in the precip expected. Temperatures will fall as the
associated cold front sweeps east across the area. Lows Monday
night expected to bottom out in the upper 40s west to lower 50s
east.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night
The upper trough will slowly work east across the area Tue thru
wed night. A second cold front should be moving across the cwa
tue night into Wed to bring fairly widespread shra then added
lake effect will maintain a good chc for shra later on Wed into
wed night, especially for the NE half. The threat for shra
should taper off west to east Wed night thru Thu morning as
drier air pushes in from the west and the lake effect potential
starts to diminish.

The next question is whether boundary layer temps aloft will get
cold enough to see some snow mix in Wed night. Based on latest model
data, which is a little warmer, don't see enough potential for some
mixing to occur so will not mention the "s" word.

Tue will be a transitions day for temps so highs will likely still
be close to normal but for Wed highs should be about 10 degrees
below normal, struggling to get above 50. Thinking is that if enough
clouds are around for shra Wed night then lows should not be able to
get much below 40 degrees in those places based on 850 mb temps from
minus 1 to minus 3 c. Thu should be a little warmer than Wed as some
warm advection gets going by late in the day.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
Warm advection will increase Thursday night into Friday as the next
storm system approaches. Cold front will move across the region on
Friday but the amount of low level moisture is uncertain. So for now
will only go with chance pop's Friday into Saturday. There will be a
lull in the rain chances at some point but the upper level trough
will be in place through Sunday. A reinforcing surge of cooler air
may arrive late Sunday with an increase in shower coverage.

Friday will be the warm day of the long term with temperatures very
close to seasonal averages. Cooler Saturday into Sunday with highs
in the 50s.

Aviation 00z Monday through Friday
Vfr conditions will continue until late tonight before lower
clouds arrive from the southwest in advance of approaching low
pressure. Moisture will surge north into the area on Monday
ahead of a low pressure system that will develop over the lower
mississippi valley and deepen as it tracks towards northwest
ohio. Ceilings will abruptly lower to MVFR and eventually ifr as
rain begins on Monday. Widespread rain is expected across the
area but will not reach the eastern sites until after 18z. MVFR
to ifr visibilities can be expected in rain.

Southerly downsloping winds will become gusty at eri after 06z
and at all of the eastern terminals by the morning hours.

Outlook... Areas if non-vfr in rain through Wednesday. Some snow
may occur Wednesday into Wednesday night.

Marine
A cold front with a wave moving along the front will push east
across lake erie Mon and Mon night. This will lead to increasing
south winds to about 15 to 25 knots that will turn west to northwest
with frontal passage Mon night and may increase to 30 knots briefly.

Winds should settle down slightly by late Tue and back to southwest
briefly until a reinforcing cold front crosses the lake to veer
winds more west again for wed.

Weak high pressure shifting east across the lake will diminish winds
for Wed night into Thu then another low should be moving thru the
lakes to produce an increasing south wind for fri. However,
differences in model timing and strength of the low leaves a good
amount of uncertainty in the forecast by fri.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Kec
near term... Kec mottice
short term... Adams
long term... Mullen
aviation... Mottice
marine... Adams


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 10 mi32 min SSE 9.9 G 11 63°F
45165 10 mi22 min SSE 7.8 G 9.7 64°F 62°F1 ft53°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 13 mi72 min SE 7 G 8.9 65°F 1016.7 hPa (-1.2)
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 21 mi42 min S 8 G 9.9 64°F 1016 hPa50°F
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 21 mi42 min SSE 4.1 G 6 64°F 1017.2 hPa52°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 35 mi72 min S 6 G 9.9 66°F 1016.3 hPa (-1.6)
45005 - W ERIE 28NM Northwest of Cleveland, OH 36 mi32 min SSE 9.7 G 12 66°F 65°F1017 hPa56°F
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH 38 mi87 min SE 1.9 66°F 1017 hPa50°F
LORO1 49 mi42 min S 11 G 14 67°F

Wind History for Marblehead, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Toledo - Toledo Executive Airport, OH24 mi19 minSSE 610.00 miFair62°F50°F65%1015.6 hPa

Wind History from TDZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE4SE5S4SE5SE6SE7S9S10S13S12S14S18
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1 day agoS4S5S4S3S3S4SE4S7S7S10S8S8S7S9S6SE6SE5S5S4S7S5CalmS4S4
2 days agoS3CalmS3SE3CalmCalmCalmS3S7S6S8S7S8SW7S8S6SE5SE5S3S7S6S7S7S7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.