Sunrise 5:49 AM   Sunset 7:41 PM Moonrise 9:54 PM   Moonset 6:26 AM

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LMZ046 Expires:202404251415;;335092 Fzus53 Kiwx 250741 Nshiwx
nearshore marine forecast national weather service northern indiana 341 am edt Thu apr 25 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan
lmz043-046-251415- new buffalo mi to st joseph mi-michigan city in to new buffalo mi- 341 am edt Thu apr 25 2024
Today - East winds 10 knots or less becoming north. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Tonight - Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Mostly clear. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less. Friday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south. Gusts up to 25 knots. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature at st. Joseph and at michigan city is 50 degrees.

LMZ005
No data

FXUS63 KIWX 250652 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 252 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Much warmer temperatures this weekend with highs around 80.

- Periodic chances for rain and a few storms, particularly Friday night and Monday.

- The risk of severe weather is low at this time.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 252 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Strong subsidence/surface high pressure remains anchored over the Lower Great Lakes today. Low level flow gradually veers from northerly to easterly through the day with ample sun allowing highs to rebound to near 60F given dry airmass/deep mixing. Afternoon RH values may drop close to 25 percent but winds remain light and recent rain/greenup will preclude any fire wx concerns. Winds continue to veer overnight with sharp midlevel ridge axis passing Fri morning. Gradient tightens and weak WAA begins by late tonight.
This will keep frost chances limited. The only exception is in our far E/NE where better radiational cooling conditions persist the longest and lows in the mid 30s are anticipated.
Still not expecting widespread frost given steady gradient wind though and will certainly not issue any headlines with current frost/freeze headlines in place.

Attention then turns to pair of upper lows ejecting out of the southwest CONUS and into Ontario late Fri-Mon. Deep S/SW flow ahead of these features will advect very warm air into the region (850mb temps near 15C). Highs near 80F on Sat and over 80F on Sun still appear likely. The first round of rain will arrive late Fri afternoon into Fri night associated with the initial warm front and theta-e surge. Best mid/upper support remains well to our NW but good 295-300K isentropic upglide will support numerous showers (best chances NW). Instability parameters are a bit meager for strong convection but enough to support a few embedded storms.

Precip chances Sat and Sun remain a bit murky. Baroclinic zone remains draped just to our west and may clip our NW zones with some showers at times. There is also continued warm/moist air advection that could generate some isolated light showers further SE. Kept broadbrushed NBM PoP's but it should be noted that there will likely be a lot of dry times for most of the area this weekend. Better precip chances arrive late Sun night into Mon as cold front finally gets pushed through our area with second upper low lifting into Ontario. Here again forcing for ascent is not great nor is available instability and there are also some timing discrepancies. Will continue likely PoP's with a low chance thunder mention.

Tue looks primarily dry at this point but we transition (at least briefly) to a more zonal pattern and 00Z guidance suggests another shortwave possible Tue night/Wed. Temps for the middle of next week drop slightly but remain above average. There is considerable spread in the placement of longwave features during the latter half of next week so confidence drops significantly during that period.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 1150 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Skies were clearing over the rest of northern Indiana. The base of a stratocu deck at 030 was still intact over the FWA terminal at this time. Skies should continue to clear from the north with subsidence over the area. VFR conditions should prevail through the period. Patchy ground fog is possible toward daybreak in the VCNTY of the terminals, but operational impacts are not expected.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for INZ005>009-018- 027.
Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ this morning for INZ012>015-017-020-022>026-032>034-103-104-116-203-204- 216.
OH...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ001-002-004- 005-015-016-024-025.
MI...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for MIZ078>081.
Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MIZ177-277.
MARINE...None.

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