Saturday, November17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Michigan City, IN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 4:26PM Saturday November 17, 2018 5:15 PM CST (23:15 UTC) Moonrise 2:57PMMoonset 1:28AM Illumination 74% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ046 Michigan City In To New Buffalo Mi- 350 Pm Est Sat Nov 17 2018
Tonight..East wind 5 to 15 knots. Cloudy. Chance of rain through the night. Chance of snow after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet after midnight.
Sunday..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots backing northwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain and snow in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday night..West wind 5 to 10 knots backing southwest 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Monday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet. The water temperature off michigan city is 45 degrees...and 44 degrees off st. Joseph.
LMZ046 Expires:201811180515;;456777 FZUS53 KIWX 172050 NSHIWX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Indiana National Weather Service Northern Indiana 350 PM EST Sat Nov 17 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ046-180515-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Michigan City city, IN
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location: 41.72, -86.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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Fxus63 kiwx 171942
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
242 pm est Sat nov 17 2018

Synopsis
Issued at 242 pm est Sat nov 17 2018
light rain and snow is expected through Sunday morning with
accumulations around an inch possible for areas along and just north
of highway 24. Temperatures will hold in the 30s. The next chance of
light snow is Monday night but dry conditions are then expected
through Friday... Along with slowly warming temperatures.

Short term (this evening through Sunday)
issued at 242 pm est Sat nov 17 2018
first round of light precip currently winding down as expected with
attention turning to second round expected tonight. Right entrance
region of 120+ kt upper jet will move overhead tonight with ensuing
ageostrophic adjustments lighting up a deep fgen band from roughly
800-500 mb (though dry air on the northern side of the frontal slope
will keep active portion confined to the lower levels around 700mb).

Models in general agreement on a decent yet broad region of ascent
and light precip with 700mb specific humidities near 3 g kg. Main
limiting factor is stability. Model cross-sections of theta-e and
epv show a very stable environment above the frontal slope that will
limit potential for a narrower, stronger mesoband. Instead, expect a
more broad and lighter response (similar to this morning) lined up
generally along and just north of the us-24 corridor. 12z model
suite still generating around 0.25 inches QPF from 00z this evening
through 18z tomorrow in this area, which seems plausible given
strength of fgen omega and decent moisture. Temps and snow ratios
will be tricky though (especially in our southeast) as better waa
forcing also leads to slightly warmer profiles for tonight and
tomorrow. Overnight timing will favor less melting than our first
round but surface wet bulb temps expected to hold in the low mid 30s
for much of the event with ground temps also still running in the
mid upper 30s. Some QPF will also fall after sunrise Sunday with
more melting potential. Atmospheric factors also not favorable for
really high snow ratios. Much of the ascent is just below the dgz
with a relatively deep layer of 0 to -10c and shallow dgz. This
should produce final snow ratios of around 12:1 or less with
substantial melting concerns. Currently anticipate around an inch of
accumulation for most locations with isolated amounts up to 3
possible just north of us-24 where moisture remains relatively high
and temps are cold enough for more snow higher ratios. Given low
confidence coverage in these higher totals and overall low impacts
due to marginal road temps... No advisory necessary.

Long term (Sunday night through Saturday)
issued at 242 pm est Sat nov 17 2018
rest of the forecast period remains relatively quiet. Another chance
for light snow Monday night as another shortwave cold front rotates
through the great lakes. Forcing is weak and broad with very limited
moisture so do not anticipate any substantial accumulation...

generally a half inch or less. Highs will remain in the 30s
through Tuesday but longwave pattern finally breaks down next week
with strong ridge pushing into eastern noam. This will yield an
extended period of dry weather with steadily increasing temps.

Next trough and chance of precip arrives late in the week with
temps sufficiently warm for an all-liquid forecast.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Sunday afternoon)
issued at 106 pm est Sat nov 17 2018
MVFR to ifr conditions will continue through the period thanks to a
decaying boundary with weak upper level forcing lingering across the
area. Light snow will continue at ksbn through late afternoon before
tapering off for a brief period. Kfwa should stay MVFR until this
evening. As a surface low drifts from mo into ky oh tonight into
Sunday afternoon, the frontal boundary will sink southeastward and
reintensify as a band of light to moderate snow. Models disagree
regarding the exact location of the boundary and how much it will
intensify, but it seems that kfwa will see ifr conditions develop
either way, with lifr not out of the question. Lower confidence as
to whether or not ksbn will see a return of snow showers, but still
included given that conditions could once again drop to ifr later
tonight.

Iwx watches warnings advisories
In... None.

Mi... None.

Oh... None.

Lm... None.

Synopsis... Agd
short term... Agd
long term... Agd
aviation... Mcd
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 15 mi14 min NE 8.9 G 11 39°F 1025.7 hPa
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 34 mi28 min NNE 9.9 G 13 38°F 1025.2 hPa34°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 34 mi16 min NE 4.1 G 6 35°F 1026.1 hPa (-0.0)
JAKI2 36 mi76 min NE 9.9 G 14 39°F
CNII2 39 mi16 min NNE 9.9 G 13 37°F 31°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 39 mi26 min NNE 16 G 18 38°F 31°F
FSTI2 44 mi76 min NNE 29 38°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Michigan City Municipal Airport, IN4 mi21 minN 010.00 miDrizzle36°F32°F87%1025.7 hPa
Valparaiso Porter County Municipal Airport, IN20 mi20 minNE 510.00 miOvercast38°F33°F83%1026.3 hPa

Wind History from VPZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW7W8W6SW6W6W10W6W3SW5SW3SW4S3S3CalmCalmSW5NW4N4NW5NW3N3N5NE6NE5
1 day agoSW8SW10SW11SW12SW15SW14SW12
G29
S9S10S11S13SW11SW12W10W10W11W11NW12NW8NW7NW8W8W5W10
2 days agoNE3CalmNE3E3E6E6E8E10E10E10E10E8NE5NE8E7E8E7E4E4SE4CalmS3S5SW7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Northern Indiana, IN (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northern Indiana, IN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.