Wednesday, May22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Michigan City, IN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:20AMSunset 8:08PM Wednesday May 22, 2019 5:44 PM CDT (22:44 UTC) Moonrise 11:52PMMoonset 8:28AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ046 Michigan City In To New Buffalo Mi- 335 Pm Edt Wed May 22 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 pm edt this evening...
Tonight..South wind 10 to 15 knots veering southwest after midnight. Gusts up to 25 knots early in the evening. Partly cloudy through midnight then becoming cloudy. Showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..West wind 10 to 15 knots. Slight chance of showers in the morning. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday night..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots veering northeast after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday..East wind 5 to 10 knots veering southeast in the afternoon. Chance of showers in the morning. Waves around 1 foot. The water temperature off michigan city is 52 degrees...and 52 degrees off st. Joseph.
LMZ046 Expires:201905230415;;289303 FZUS53 KIWX 221935 NSHIWX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Indiana National Weather Service Northern Indiana 335 PM EDT Wed May 22 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ046-230415-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Michigan City city, IN
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location: 41.72, -86.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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Fxus63 kiwx 221845
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
245 pm edt Wed may 22 2019

Synopsis
Issued at 245 pm edt Wed may 22 2019
dry and mild conditions into this evening will give way to chances
for showers and thunderstorms later tonight into Thursday morning.

Drier conditions then return Thursday afternoon into Thursday
night. Lows tonight will drop into the 60s, with highs in the mid
70s to low 80s Thursday. Friday into the upcoming holiday weekend
will then feature near normal temperatures and periodic chances
for showers and thunderstorms.

Short term (this evening through Thursday)
issued at 245 pm edt Wed may 22 2019
dry slot and passage of the sfc warm front associated with low
pressure occluding into the northern plains will set the stage for a
warmer drier late afternoon through the early overnight. The one
exception will be through 21 22z in our far southeast (near lima,
oh) where an isolated shower storm cannot be ruled out on the
western fringe of a narrow pre-frontal zone of deeper
moisture weak convergence.

The deep low will open weaken eastward toward the northern great
lakes later tonight into Thursday, while a secondary theta-e surge
and subtle shortwave embedded in southwest flow ejects northeast
from the plains. These features will send a cold front and
good chances for a round of showers embedded storms through later
tonight into early Thursday morning from west to east. Bumped up
pops and refined timing a bit per latest trends in hi-res guidance.

Severe risk should be limited by poor diurnal timing and mlcin,
though may need to monitor for some stronger wind gusts into our in
zones if a more robust convective complex develops upstream this
evening.

Round of height falls through the great lakes should push this cold
front and shower storm chances south of the area by Thursday
afternoon. Somewhat gusty west winds and mild conditions
are expected in a well mixed post-frontal environment otherwise by
Thursday afternoon.

Long term (Thursday night through Wednesday)
issued at 245 pm edt Wed may 22 2019
the large scale flow pattern looks to remain largely unchanged late
this week through early next week with near normal temperatures and
periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms. A frontal zone will
continue to oscillate between the great lakes and ohio valley on the
northern fringe of a stubborn subtropical ridge over the tn valley
and deep south. Several shortwaves ejecting out of a western conus
longwave trough will interact with this boundary to produce these
periodic rain thunder chances.

As for timing details, Thursday night continues to appear dry and
cooler given brief ridging through a deep column. This likely
breaks down a bit by later Friday and Saturday with the next
higher chances for showers storms thanks to incoming shortwave
energy warm advection forcing the frontal boundary back north into
the lower great lakes region. Moisture rich environment and some
speed shear could bring heavy rain and perhaps a severe risk by
later Friday night and Saturday, though confidence at this range
remains very low. Confidence in daily details (pops temps) then
rapidly decrease beyond Saturday given uncertainties with respect
to frontal zone placement and timing of additional convectively
aided impulses to propagate through.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)
issued at 112 pm edt Wed may 22 2019
vfr conditions are expected through the first portion of the taf
period. A cold front will bring additional chances for showers and
even a few thunderstorms to the terminals overnight and Thursday
morning, starting at ksbn around 9z. Expect MVFR conditions, with
ifr possible in any heavier showers or storms. South-southwest wind
gusts around 15-20 kts will shift to the west by Thursday afternoon.

Llws is possible briefly between 8-12z.

Iwx watches warnings advisories
In... None.

Mi... None.

Oh... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lmz043-046.

Synopsis... Steinwedel
short term... Steinwedel
long term... Steinwedel
aviation... Mcd
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 1 mi44 min S 21 G 25 81°F 54°F
45170 5 mi34 min S 12 G 16 70°F 53°F1 ft53°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 15 mi64 min SSW 9.9 G 14 79°F 1011.9 hPa
45026 - St. Joseph, MI 23 mi34 min S 9.7 G 14 65°F 53°F1 ft1012 hPa53°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 34 mi44 min S 16 G 24 81°F 1010.3 hPa (-0.5)54°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 34 mi44 min SSW 8 G 12 80°F 1012.2 hPa (-0.3)
JAKI2 36 mi104 min SSW 12 G 25 82°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 39 mi44 min SSW 26 G 27
CNII2 39 mi29 min S 19 G 23 80°F 48°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Last
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NE9
G12
E10
G13
E13
G17
E11
G16
E12
G17
E13
G18
E13
G22
S8
G14
--
NE4
E14
G19
SE2
G5
SE7
G10
SE6
G9
S6
G10
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G15
S11
G17
S11
G18
S14
G20
S9
G18
S16
G21
S11
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G24
1 day
ago
N5
N6
N6
G9
N6
NW2
N5
G8
N8
N8
N4
G7
NE12
G15
NE9
NE8
G11
NE10
E8
G14
E11
G15
E11
G16
NE9
G12
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G14
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G13
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G14
NE12
G15
NE14
G17
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2 days
ago
SW6
G13
W7
G17
W5
G11
SW6
G12
W7
G17
W8
G17
SW7
G18
SW7
G15
W9
G15
W3
G8
W7
G11
W6
G12
W5
G11
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G10
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G14
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G14
NW6
G9
N9
G13
N10
G13
N8
G11
N8
N7
G11
NE7
G11
NE7

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Michigan City Municipal Airport, IN4 mi49 minS 11 G 1610.00 miFair81°F51°F37%1012.5 hPa
Valparaiso Porter County Municipal Airport, IN20 mi48 minSSW 12 G 2010.00 miFair82°F55°F40%1012.4 hPa

Wind History from VPZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE15
G25
E14
G23
E13
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E11
G23
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G24
E12E14
G23
E14
G23
SE11
G18
SE4SE5E15
G24
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G25
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G16
S7SE8S12
G19
S10
G21
S13
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S11
G20
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G22
S12
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G21
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G20
1 day agoN11N5
G15
N6CalmS3CalmN5NE3CalmNE5E7SE3E8S7E14
G19
E13SE11
G18
E8
G18
E8E15
G22
E16
G24
E21
G28
E21
G30
E14
G23
2 days agoW22
G31
W20
G27
W10W12
G25
W14W11W14
G21
W13
G21
W11W14W9W8NW10NW8W14N8N5
G15
N10
G17
NW11N10
G19
N12
G17
N8
G20
N10
G20
N10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Northern Indiana, IN (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northern Indiana, IN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.