Friday, September22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
West Chatham, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:28AMSunset 6:38PM Friday September 22, 2017 8:22 PM EDT (00:22 UTC) Moonrise 8:45AMMoonset 8:13PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ254 Coastal Waters From Provincetown Ma To Chatham Ma To Nantucket Ma Out 20 Nm- 716 Pm Edt Fri Sep 22 2017
.gale warning in effect until 11 pm edt this evening...
Tonight..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sat..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sat night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the morning. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft, except 9 to 11 ft S and E of nantucket. A chance of showers.
Wed night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft, except 9 to 12 ft S and E of nantucket. A chance of showers. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Pm Edt Fri Sep 22 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Jose will continue to weaken and slowly drift south tonight into Sat. Large high pres will begin to build in from the west Sat and remain in control of our weather Sun and Mon. Hurricane maria will slowly lift north and be located off the north carolina coast by the middle of next week. It will generate southerly swell particularly across our southern outer-waters during the first half of next week. Mariners should Monitor the latest forecasts from the national hurricane center at www.nhc.noaa.gov. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near West Chatham, MA
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location: 41.73, -69.97     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 222334
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
734 pm edt Fri sep 22 2017

Synopsis
Jose will continue to weaken tonight as it very slowly drifts south,
but still bring periods of showers to eastern ma and ri. Low
clouds will gradually scour out from west to east during the day
Saturday and it will turn warm across interior southern new
england. Unseasonably warm weather is on tap Sunday into the
middle of next week, especially away from the coast.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
No major changes to the forecast this evening. Brought the
forecast back in line with observed trends.

Previous discussion...

jose will continue to weaken tonight and gradually meander further
south gradually losing its grip on southern new england. Cyclonic
flow around the system will still be enough for bands of showers
tonight across eastern ma and ri, but they will begin to focus
mainly across southeast ma overnight as deeper moisture pushes south.

As for temperatures, there was a large range in current readings
late this afternoon from readings well into the 70s in western
ma ct, to the upper 50s and lower 60s in eastern ma and ri. However,
by daybreak readings should balance out as there will not be much
change in temps along the coastal plain tonight. Lows by daybreak
should generally be in the 55 to 60 degree range.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through 6 pm Saturday
Saturday...

we can not rule out a few left over spot showers or perhaps a bit of
drizzle across the far southeast new england coast Saturday morning,
but regardless there will be an abundance of low clouds. Model cross
sections indicate drier low level air should allow for plenty of
sunshine across western ma western ct by mid afternoon. Given 850t
around +16c lower elevations in these areas should see afternoon
highs soar into the middle 80s. Meanwhile along and southeast of the
boston to providence corridor, low clouds will linger into mid
afternoon but most areas should see improvement by late
afternoon early evening except for the CAPE and islands. Given the
late recovery will go for late day highs in the middle to upper 70s
in the boston to providence corridor, but keep them around 70 for
the CAPE and islands.

Surf:
lingering high seas from left over swell, opted to issue a high surf
advisory through Saturday on all ocean exposed south and east facing
beaches. High surf and dangerous rip currents will be a concern,
particularly now that many beaches do not have lifeguards given that
the official summer beach season has ended.

Long term Saturday night through Friday
Highlights...

* return to summer warmth Sunday and Monday
* showers possible by mid week
* watching maria, but latest NHC track keeps it offshore
jose continues its slow dissipation through early next week, keeping
high surf and an elevated risk of rip currents on south coastal
beaches. Concern is for an increase in beachgoers this weekend, as
building upper ridge brings return to warmer conditions. Keep in
mind many area beaches are no longer staffed with lifeguards this
late in september!
still expecting an anomalous ridge to develop over the northeast
this weekend and early next week. Besides the return of summer-like
heat, including the possibility of a few 90 degree readings in the
merrimack and connecticut river valleys, we should also see a
prolonged period of dry weather.

Still expecting a backdoor cold front to move into our region from
the east Tuesday into Wednesday. While temperatures will be lower
than this weekend, still expecting above near to slightly above
normal temperatures. Cannot rule out scattered showers either, which
should be focused mainly across the eastern half of southern new
england.

This mid level ridge is also expected to play a role in delaying
the northward progress of maria along the eastern seaboard. If maria
is delayed long enough, there should be enough time for a mid level
trough and a surface cold front to push maria out to sea. The track
or maria should be close enough to bring another round of high surf
with a renewed threat of rip currents and beach erosion. It's still
much to early to confidently say that will happen, since we need to
assess interaction with approaching great lakes trough surface cold
front.

Aviation 00z Saturday through Wednesday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Saturday ...

tonight... Moderate confidence. Low end MVFR to ifr conditions
will continue tonight across eastern ma and ri in bands of
showers, especially across southeast ma. NE wind gusts around
35 kt along the southeast new england coast will gradually
diminish some through the night. Meanwhile, brokenVFR to
marginal MVFR CIGS will continue across western ma and ct are
expected through tonight.

Saturday... High confidence in trends but low confidence in
timing. Marginal MVFR CIGS across the interior should improve
toVFR to the northwest of the boston to providence corridor by
mid afternoon. MVFR-ifr CIGS in low clouds and fog patches
southeast of the boston to providence line will be slower to
improve, but should scour out towards 00z except for the
cape and islands.

Kbos taf... Moderate confidence. Low end MVFR to ifr conditions
in periods of showers and drizzle persist tonight.

Kbdl taf... Moderate confidence in taf. Scattered to broken
ceilings will mainly beVFR but some periods of MVFR are
possible overnight.

Outlook Saturday night through Wednesday ...

Saturday night... Moderate confidence.VFR west. Ifr east.

Sunday and Monday... High confidence. MainlyVFR. Light winds
with seabreezes possible.

Tuesday and Wednesday... Moderate confidence. MVFR possible in
scattered showers, especially eastern ma. Otherwise,VFR.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight... Moderate to high confidence. Jose will continue weaken
but still bring gale force wind gusts to many of our waters into
this evening. These winds should gradually diminish through the
night as the system slowly weakens. 10 to 15 foot seas across our
outer-waters will only gradually diminish.

Saturday... Moderate to high confidence. Perhaps some left over
marginal gale force wind gusts across our southwest outer-waters
into mid morning. Otherwise, wind gusts should continue to
gradually diminish from north to south but small craft gusts will
continue through the afternoon across our southern waters. Seas
will also remain above small craft levels across the open waters
from left over swell.

Outlook Saturday night through Wednesday ...

moderate confidence.

Light winds expected Sunday with local seabreezes as high pressure
remains over waters. A backdoor cold front is expected to move south
across waters Monday into Tuesday with light E NE winds and
scattered showers.

Seas will gradually subside Sunday, and should finally drop below 5
ft on all waters except for the southern outer coastal waters.

Lingering swells from jose, combined with increasing swells from
maria, will likely lead to seas building over 5 ft again on waters
south and east of nantucket by Monday or Tuesday.

Tides coastal flooding
Diminishing seas and surge should preclude any additional pockets of
minor coastal flooding tonight, other than perhaps some very minor
splash over. However, additional beach erosion will still be a
concern into Saturday given high seas just offshore.

Swells from maria may increase the surf and associated rip current
risk across our ocean-exposed south coast sometime during the first
half of next week, even though maria may eventually recurve out
to sea before getting too close to new england.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... High surf advisory until 6 pm edt Saturday for maz007-019-020-
022>024.

Ri... High surf advisory until 6 pm edt Saturday for riz006>008.

Marine... Gale warning until 11 pm edt this evening for anz231>234-250-
254.

Small craft advisory until 10 am edt Saturday for anz230-236.

Gale warning until 4 am edt Saturday for anz235-237.

Small craft advisory until 2 pm edt Saturday for anz251.

Gale warning until 8 am edt Saturday for anz255-256.

Synopsis... Belk frank
near term... Belk frank
short term... Frank
long term... Belk
aviation... Belk frank
marine... Belk frank
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44090 20 mi79 min 62°F6 ft
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 23 mi93 min NNE 25 G 31 61°F 61°F5 ft1009.2 hPa (+0.6)61°F
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 31 mi53 min NNE 19 G 24 62°F 64°F1009.7 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 31 mi98 min 5.1 61°F 1011 hPa61°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 40 mi53 min 61°F 66°F1011.3 hPa

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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N23
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N17
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N19
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N27
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NE16
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N18
G28
N25
G34

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chatham, Chatham Municipal Airport, MA2 mi31 minNE 12 G 226.00 miFog/Mist63°F63°F100%1011.8 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA17 mi27 minNNE 12 G 222.50 miLight Rain Fog/Mist63°F62°F97%1011.2 hPa
Provincetown Municipal Airport, MA23 mi27 minNE 18 G 242.00 miFog/Mist and Breezy60°F59°F96%1013.4 hPa

Wind History from CQX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE16
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1 day agoN12
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2 days agoNE14
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G20
NE12
G22
NE14
G27
N13
G27
NE12
G28
N15
G25
N12
G25

Tide / Current Tables for Pleasant Bay, Quonset Pont, Massachusetts
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Pleasant Bay
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:34 AM EDT     3.51 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:45 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:30 AM EDT     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:54 PM EDT     3.51 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:13 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 10:54 PM EDT     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.71.72.83.43.53.12.621.30.5-0.1-0.10.51.42.53.33.53.22.72.21.50.80.1-0.2

Tide / Current Tables for Pollock Rip Channel, Massachusetts Current
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Pollock Rip Channel
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:10 AM EDT     -1.90 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 05:15 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:44 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 08:45 AM EDT     2.19 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 11:44 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 02:31 PM EDT     -1.85 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 05:36 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:13 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 09:05 PM EDT     2.12 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.8-1.6-1.9-1.8-1.2-0.30.81.62.12.21.80.9-0.3-1.3-1.8-1.8-1.4-0.60.41.31.92.11.91.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.