Monday, September24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
West Chatham, MA

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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:29AMSunset 6:35PM Monday September 24, 2018 1:44 PM EDT (17:44 UTC) Moonrise 6:46PMMoonset 5:45AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ254 Coastal Waters From Provincetown Ma To Chatham Ma To Nantucket Ma Out 20 Nm- 116 Pm Edt Mon Sep 24 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday evening...
This afternoon..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft.
Tonight..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Tue..SE winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Patchy fog. Rain. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue night..SE winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Patchy fog. Rain. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Wed..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Patchy fog. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 5 to 7 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 116 Pm Edt Mon Sep 24 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Strong high pres builds across quebec today, moving to the canadian maritimes Tue. A warm front will lift north across the waters Tue night followed by a cold front Wed night. High pres builds over new eng Thu and Fri. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near West Chatham, MA
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location: 41.73, -69.97     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 241740
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
140 pm edt Mon sep 24 2018

Synopsis
Dry and unseasonably cool weather will continue into this
evening. An approaching warm front will bring a soaking heavy
rain to the region Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Warmer and
humid weather returns Wednesday with scattered showers
thunderstorms. Some uncertainty regarding the forecast late this
week into next weekend, but overall mainly dry and seasonable
weather will dominate.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
140 pm update...

strong high pressure over eastern canada continues to result in
cool northeast winds which were gusty along the coast. This
shallow cool air was also resulting in mostly cloudy skies... But
there were a few peeks of sunshine especially in parts of N ne
ma. Otherwise, rather cloudy for the remainder of the afternoon
with temperatures mainly in the middle 50s to lower 60s.

Significantly below normal for this time of year.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Tuesday
Tonight...

expect some clearing in the evening with just high clouds,
especially across eastern new eng which will allow for decent
radiational cooling for the first part of the night. Low temps
should drop into the 40s across much of the region. Clouds will
increase overnight and leading edge of overrunning rain may move
into portions of western ma and northern ct toward daybreak. The
rest of sne should remain dry.

Tuesday...

a widespread soaking rainfall expected as warm front approaches
from the south with good forcing for ascent aided by a low level
jet. However, timing of heaviest rainfall for eastern new eng
may be delayed until the afternoon. Pwats approach 2 inches
which is 2sd above normal and low level wind anomalies are
2-3sd above normal. This is a good signal for heavy rainfall.

Fortunately, instability aloft is limited so rainfall rates
should not be excessive. Rainfall amounts through Tue will
average 1-2 inches in the interior where best forcing is located
along the nose of the low level jet. Locally higher amounts are
possible per hi-res guidance. Less rainfall with amounts less
than an inch expected across SE new eng. Widespread flooding is
not anticipated with just the typical urban and poor drainage
street flooding.

Temps will start out on the chilly side in cool sector north of
the warm front, but will rise through the 60s in the afternoon,
especially south of the mass pike. Temps may remain in the 50s
across interior northern ma for much of the day before rising
tue night. Gusty SE winds with gusts to 25-35 mph possible
across SE new eng in the afternoon as the low level jet moves
through.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
Highlights...

* widespread soaking heavy rain into Tue evening
* much warmer & muggier Wed wed eve with scattered showers t-storms
* forecast uncertainty thu-sun... But favoring mainly dry & seasonable
details...

Tuesday night...

warm front approaching from the south with core of low level
southerly jet (45-50kt) across eastern ma and exiting offshore. Thus
heaviest rain likely confined to eastern ma Tue evening then moving
offshore. Thus rain should transition to more showery weather
overnight tue. Although with pwats around 2 inches, can't rule out a
few tropical downpours. Also with dew pts surging upward thru the
60s expect areas of fog possible. Therefore temps likely rising
overnight.

Wednesday and Wednesday night...

good model agreement on warm sector overspreading the region with
all model guidance offering +20c to +21c air at 925 mb wed! These
warm temps aloft should easily support highs Wed afternoon near 80
and perhaps a few degs warmer if some breaks of sunshine develop as
clouds thin Wed afternoon. Humid as well with dew pts climbing into
the low 70s. Thus a summer-like day along with about 500j of cape.

This instability combined with approaching cold front will result in
a round of convection, potentially a few strong to severe storms
possible. Heavy rain possible too with pwats surging up to 2+
inches, which is about +2 to +3 standard deviations. Something else
to watch is a tropical disturbance southwest of bermuda this
morning. This feature may get entrained into the SW flow along the
eastern seaboard and ride northeast along or ahead of approaching
frontal boundary wed-wed night. This would increase the heavy
rain flood threat here.

Thursday through next weekend...

lower heights across new england suggest a cooling trend but with
southeast ridge holding strong the core of the cooler air will
remain across the great lakes into the high plains. Mainly dry
weather should prevail, however some signs that cold front from wed
night gets hung along our south coast with a wave of low pressure
possibly bring a period of rain here Thu night into Fri morning.

Aviation 18z Monday through Saturday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday ...

through 00z this evening... Moderate to high confidence. A broken
deck of low endVFR-MVFR ceilings will persist in many
locations. Some improvement may occur... Especially in northern
and eastern ma as drier air will attempt to scour out the
clouds. NE winds still gusting to 25 knots along the coast will
gradually diminish through early evening.

Tonight... Moderate to high confidence.VFR conditions probably
dominate much of the night... But still some marginal MVFR cigs
possible at times across the interior. Lowering CIGS vsbys
expected between 9z and 12z across western ma ct as rain
arrives.

Tuesday... High confidence. Widespread low end MVFR to ifr
conditions as a widespread soaking rain overspreads most of the
region by 15z... But perhaps a bit later across the CAPE islands.

The rain will be heavy at times along with patchy fog.

Se wind gusts of 20 to 30 knots develop on the coast... But
inversion results in lighter winds further inland especially
across the the ct river valley. Llws expected to develop during
the afternoon.

Tuesday night... Moderate confidence. Low end MVFR-ifr conditions
persist with localized lifr conditions in fog. Widespread rain
diminishes during the evening... But scattered showers and a few
t-storms possible overnight. Low risk for a strong storm near
the south coast towards 12z. Llws expected.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf.

Outlook Wednesday through Friday ...

Wednesday: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Breezy. Chance
shra, chance tsra, patchy br.

Wednesday night: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy.

Chance shra, chance tsra.

Thursday:VFR. Breezy.

Thursday night: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance shra.

Friday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
shra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday ... High confidence.

Today... Small craft headlines remain in place for all waters. Ne
wind gusts to 25-30 kt expected with 5 to 8 foot seas across
the open waters. This a result of long northeast fetch and good
mixing with cool advection over the relatively warm ocean.

Tonight and Tuesday... Easterly gusts to 25-30 kt will persist
across south coastal outer waters tonight, with 30 kt gusts
expanding north across eastern ma waters during Tue as winds
veer to se. SCA continues.

Outlook Tuesday night through Friday ...

Tuesday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Rain showers, patchy
fog. Visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Wednesday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance
of rain showers, chance of thunderstorms, patchy fog. Local
visibility 1 nm or less.

Wednesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 8 ft.

Chance of rain showers, chance of thunderstorms.

Thursday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers.

Thursday night through Friday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of
seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt Tuesday for anz232>235-237-
250-251-254>256.

Small craft advisory until 2 pm edt this afternoon for anz230-
236.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for anz231.

Synopsis... Kjc nocera
near term... Frank
short term... Kjc
long term... Nocera
aviation... Frank nocera
marine... Kjc frank nocera


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44090 20 mi45 min 65°F4 ft
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 23 mi35 min NE 19 G 25 60°F 70°F1033.8 hPa52°F
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 31 mi60 min 2.9 60°F 1034 hPa50°F
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 31 mi45 min 61°F 68°F1033.6 hPa (+0.7)
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 34 mi55 min ENE 18 G 21 57°F 8 ft1035 hPa (+0.7)44°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 40 mi45 min 61°F 70°F1033.8 hPa (+0.8)

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chatham, Chatham Municipal Airport, MA2 mi53 minENE 13 G 1910.00 miOvercast60°F48°F65%1035 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA17 mi49 minNE 13 G 2210.00 miOvercast60°F50°F70%1034 hPa
Provincetown Municipal Airport, MA23 mi49 minENE 1310.00 miOvercast59°F46°F64%1035.5 hPa

Wind History from CQX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmN3CalmNE7NE9NE15
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1 day ago5
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NW75NE6NE73NE6NE5CalmNE4N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3CalmCalmS4
2 days agoS9
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Tide / Current Tables for Pleasant Bay, Quonset Pont, Massachusetts
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Tide / Current Tables for Pollock Rip Channel, Massachusetts Current
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.