Saturday, November18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wareham Center, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 4:22PM Saturday November 18, 2017 3:20 AM EST (08:20 UTC) Moonrise 7:27AMMoonset 5:53PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
ANZ234 Buzzards Bay- 116 Am Est Sat Nov 18 2017
.gale warning in effect from this afternoon through late Sunday night...
Rest of tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain likely.
Sun..SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Patchy fog. Showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Mon..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Mon night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 116 Am Est Sat Nov 18 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pressure builds across the waters tonight and early Sat. Intensifying low pres tracks across the saint lawrence river valley Sat night and Sun, with its attending strong cold front sweeping across the new england waters Sun afternoon. High pres then builds into the water early next week. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wareham Center, MA
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 41.73, -70.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kbox 180617
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
117 am est Sat nov 18 2017

Synopsis
High pressure crests across our area tonight, providing dry but
cold weather. Strengthening low pressure will push across the st.

Lawrence river valley this weekend with gusty southwest winds
developing Saturday afternoon and night. Strong to damaging wind
threats continue behind this departing system Sunday, potentially
lingering into Monday. The ebb and flow pattern of southerly warm
air surges followed by northerly cold air drainage continues through
the week into the thanksgiving weekend.

Near term until 6 am this morning
1 am update...

cold ridge of high pressure cresting over the region tonight
providing ideal radiational cooling with light winds, mostly
clear skies and a dry airmass. Most locations at 1 am already
down into the 20s. Some cirrus spilling in from the west but
cloud cover appears thin enough not to impact temps overnight.

Previous forecast remains on track so no major changes with
this update.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Sunday
An intensifying low pressure moving through the great lakes into
the saint lawrence river valley Saturday into Saturday night
will mean an increasing southwest wind for southern new england.

These southwest winds will also mean higher temperatures, likely
slowly rising Saturday night instead of falling.

Lots of dry air to overcome in the lower levels. Thinking the
nam might be a bit too fast bringing precipitation into our
region. Stayed with the slower timing presented by the gfs,
ecmwf and cmc solutions. This would bring a chance of showers to
much of our region during the afternoon. The brunt of the light
rainfall should be Saturday night across our region.

Will need to contemplate a wind advisory for the south coast of
ri and ma late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Will
mention in the hazardous weather outlook, and let the next shift
get a closer look at the details.

Long term Sunday night through Friday
* highlights...

- widespread strong to damaging W NW winds Sunday into Sunday night
- winds will linger into Monday with perhaps less of an impact
- ebb and flow pattern of S warm air surges followed by N cold air
continues
* overview...

ebb and flow continues. Without greater amplification and subsequent
transfer between the equator and the poles, the flow remains mainly
zonal. The mjo largely subdued as the present -wpo -epo -pna all
trend positive into december per ensemble means, counter-productive,
lending seemingly to a signal of persistent W to E flow. The only
consistencies it seems from analysis of potential vorticity and
isentropic surfaces is a persistence of poleward transfer in the n
pacific and the NE atlantic that lends to S shearing of energy into
the gulf of alaska and S across europe, respectively. Otherwise it's
zonal in-between. Any energy across the CONUS is quick moving with
little residency such that forces acting to invoke greater curvature
and storm development reach their full potential E of our region
across E SE canada into the NW atlantic. With racing storm systems
over our region, warm-surge in advance followed by cool shots, both
with attributes of gusty winds, a chance of wet-weather in-between
along associated frontal boundaries, cold fronts with more emphasis.

Attendant threats and impacts highlighted in the discussion below.

* discussion...

Sunday into Monday...

winds shifting NW ushering colder air, remaining blustery. Consensus
of forecast guidance, cold front sweeping 7-10a Sunday, undercutting
colder air, lapse rates mixing out to h85, dry adiabatic, the top of
the mix layer averaging W NW 45 to 50 mph (40 to 45 kts). Widespread
wind advisory likely, more likely daytime Sunday with boundary layer
heating and contributions from quick pressure rises. Ensemble means,
strongest winds likely across the high terrain and along the coast
adjacent to 50-degree ocean waters, also N E closer to the storm
center, so N E portions of ma at greatest threat. Cips analogs with
a high probability of at least 35 mph widespread gusts, lower for 40
to 45 mph, however considering local climatology, believe there is
the potential to see 40+ mph gusts.

Headlines may drop overnight with the potential of a shallow surface
inversion, however model guidance consensus signals continued cold
air advection right into Monday with additional energy rotating
through the cyclonic flow across the region lending to an enhancement
of the wind profile. Something will have to watch closely.

Will highlight the wind threat in the hazardous weather outlook. No
headlines at this time associated with W NW winds.

Otherwise, drier air surging in aloft behind the quick sweeping cold
front, will see an end to shower activity rather abruptly during the
morning hours. With the blustery W NW winds and cold airmass pouring
in, across the warmer great lakes, the lake effect machine will be
ongoing and could see some of that energy reach far enough E with
the mean flow to impact N W portions of ma and ct with some snow
and or rain shower activity, 2m temperature dependent. If snow, some
light accumulations are possible, mainly for the high terrain.

All threat diminish into Monday night, and it is during this period
that winds may become light enough beneath clear conditions to allow
for radiational cooling and night-time lows to drop well down into
the 20s, possibly teens. Hard to say right now. If W NW winds remain
brisk, then the mechanical mixing in the environment would limit the
radiational cooling potential. Will hold it conservative with wide-
spread lows in the 20s. Highs Sunday into the upper 40s to low 50s
right before the cold front punches through in the morning, upper
30s to low 40s for Monday.

Tuesday...

quiet. High pressure. Return S flow. Turning mild. Still believe
that warmest temperatures will be over interior SE new england, that
an onshore will develop in response to an approaching storm system
for the overnight period into Wednesday. Highs in the upper 40s to
low 50s.

Tuesday night into Wednesday...

possible showers. Keeping with slight chance pops, the ec on again
off again on the N and S stream energy beginning to interact with a
draw of s-moisture ahead of the N sweeping cold front before both
systems push offshore quickly and phase downstream. The GFS keeps
the dry-streak going. Given the emphasis on the cold front agreed
upon within all available guidance, would expect that the associated
lift on available moisture should get something going, especially
considering the warmer ocean waters that line the shore.

Thanksgiving onward...

thanksgiving looks quiet and seasonable, while into the weekend it
appears another quick moving storm system sweeps the region. The ebb
and flow pattern continues with milder shots and SW flow ahead of
any disturbance followed by colder air and NW winds as the system
departs.

Aviation 06z Saturday through Wednesday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Sunday ...

06z...

today... High confidence.

Vfr and dry weather prevails. The exception will be across
western ma ct where MVFR conditions in light rain will increase
between 21z-00z. Light winds this morning increase sharply this
afternoon from the ssw with gusts approaching 30 kts by sunset
(22z). Elsewhere ssw winds increasing to 10-15 kt.

Tonight... High confidence.

Vfr-MVFR to start in areas of light rain but trending toward
ifr-MVFR after midnight. Strong ssw 20-25g45kt winds along the
south coast including CAPE cod and islands. Elsewhere winds not
as strong and this results in llws across much of ri and eastern
ma including bos.

Sunday... Moderate confidence. Some uncertainty on probability of
-tsra and areal coverage along and ahead of strong cold front.

MVFR-ifr with widespread showers, some with locally heavy
downpours. Could be a fine line of low top showers with embedded
thunder roughly 15z-18z. Gusty winds may accompany this
convection. Strong ssw winds 20-25g45kt continue along the south
coast including CAPE cod and islands. Away from the south coast
expect llws to continue thru the morning across ri and eastern
ma. Then a strong cold front sweeps across the area late morning
into the early afternoon, with improving conditions behind the
front and a wind shift to the west.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in TAF thru 00z then some timing
issues on arrival of lower CIGS and rain. Then period of rough
weather tonight into midday Sunday with llws along with heavy
showers. Isolated thunder possible 15z-18z Sunday, then strong
cold front sweeps across the area with improving conditions
after 18z Sunday.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in TAF thru 21z then some timing
issues on arrival of lower CIGS and rain. Unsettled weather
tonight into Sunday morning with heavy showers and possible
isolated thunder.

Outlook Sunday night through Wednesday ...

Sunday night:VFR. Windy with gusts to 35 kt.

Monday:VFR. Strong winds with local gusts to 40 kt.

Monday night:VFR. Windy with gusts to 35 kt.

Tuesday:VFR. Breezy.

Tuesday night:VFR. Windy with local gusts to 30 kt. Slight
chance shra, slight chance fzra.

Wednesday:VFR. Breezy. Slight chance shra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Sunday ... High confidence.

Tonight...

winds will continue to diminish this evening along with seas.

Saturday and Saturday night...

increasing SW winds as a low pressure moves through the great
lakes into the saint lawrence valley. Showers most likely to
arrive over the waters late Saturday afternoon, and continue
into Saturday night. Some risk for storm force gusts Saturday
night, but have greater confidence in gale force winds. Warnings
posted.

Outlook Sunday night through Wednesday ...

Sunday: moderate risk for gale force winds with local gusts up
to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft. Rain showers likely.

Sunday night: strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas
up to 14 ft.

Monday: moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
40 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft.

Monday night: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Tuesday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.

Tuesday night: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of
rain showers.

Wednesday: winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight
chance of rain showers.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Gale warning from 5 pm this afternoon to 6 am est Monday for
anz232>234.

Gale watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
anz230.

Gale warning from 1 am Sunday to 6 am est Monday for anz231-
251.

Gale warning from 7 pm this evening to 7 pm est Sunday for
anz236.

Gale warning from 3 pm this afternoon to 6 am est Monday for
anz235-237-255-256.

Gale warning from 7 pm this evening to 6 am est Monday for
anz250-254.

Synopsis... Belk sipprell
near term... Belk nocera sipprell
short term...

long term... Sipprell
aviation... Belk nocera sipprell
marine... Belk sipprell


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 14 mi95 min 1 32°F 1016 hPa21°F
44090 22 mi50 min 51°F4 ft
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 29 mi80 min WNW 13 G 15 38°F 1016.8 hPa (+0.5)
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 34 mi90 min WNW 18 G 21 39°F 49°F2 ft1015.8 hPa (+1.5)24°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 34 mi95 min W 4.1 31°F 996 hPa20°F
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 43 mi90 min NW 18 G 21 37°F 51°F3 ft1014.1 hPa (+0.9)

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Last
24hr
1 day
ago
2 days
ago

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA11 mi25 minWNW 410.00 miFair28°F19°F69%1015.9 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA12 mi28 minN 010.00 miFair25°F19°F81%1015.7 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA14 mi27 minN 010.00 miFair28°F19°F72%1015.9 hPa
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA20 mi28 minN 010.00 miFair23°F19°F85%1015.7 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA23 mi24 minW 410.00 miFair32°F17°F54%1014.9 hPa
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA23 mi27 minWNW 510.00 miFair28°F18°F66%1015.9 hPa

Wind History from FMH (wind in knots)
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
Last 24hrW10
G17
W11W14W12NW12
G18
NW13
G23
NW18
G25
NW17
G28
NW16
G26
NW12
G25
NW13
G24
W15
G22
NW11
G24
NW12
G18
NW11NW5
G11
W10W9
G16
NW11NW7CalmCalmW6NW5
1 day agoE7E5E5E4SE8SE12
G19
SE13SE18
G23
SE15
G21
SE13E12E12NW9N6
G11
W5W8W15
G24
W10W11W13W13W15W14W13
G19
2 days agoN4N3N9N5NW4N7
G13
N7
G12
N8NE9N8
G13
N7
G12
N7N8N7NE7NE5NE4NE4NE3E4CalmNE4NE5E4

Tide / Current Tables for Great Hill, Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Great Hill
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:25 AM EST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:25 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:35 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:42 AM EST     New Moon
Sat -- 07:34 AM EST     4.76 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:12 PM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:19 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 04:53 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:52 PM EST     3.96 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-000.411.82.93.94.64.742.71.30.3-00.10.51.11.92.93.743.52.41.2

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:56 AM EST     0.20 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:04 AM EST     4.26 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:25 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:35 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:42 AM EST     New Moon
Sat -- 09:13 AM EST     -0.14 knots Slack
Sat -- 12:03 PM EST     -4.62 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 03:17 PM EST     0.20 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:19 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 04:52 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:27 PM EST     4.37 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 09:43 PM EST     -0.03 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-4.5-4-30.73.144.34.13.41.5-3-4.2-4.6-4.3-3.5-1.72.63.84.34.33.92.7-1.7-3.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (3,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.