Wednesday, January17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wareham Center, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 4:42PM Wednesday January 17, 2018 4:10 AM EST (09:10 UTC) Moonrise 8:21AMMoonset 6:22PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ234 Buzzards Bay- 350 Am Est Wed Jan 17 2018
Today..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N this afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Rain and snow, mainly this morning. Patchy fog this afternoon. Vsby 1 nm or less this morning.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 350 Am Est Wed Jan 17 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Low pres will continue to develop as it moves ne off the mid atlc coast this morning, passing se of nantucket before heading to the gulf of maine tonight. Large high pres will build S of the waters Thu through this weekend. A cold front may approach from the N Sunday night, but should remain N of the waters. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wareham Center, MA
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location: 41.73, -70.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 170729
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
229 am est Wed jan 17 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure will track south of nantucket today bringing
accumulating snow to much of southern new england today,
heaviest across western and central ma and northern ct. A
changeover to rain is likely near the south coast. Mainly dry
weather likely Wednesday night into Sunday, with a warming trend
during this weekend. Another low pressure should affect our
region early next week with mostly rain, but there is a risk of
some snow mix ice in the interior.

Near term through today
* potent winter storm expected late tonight into Wednesday
* hazardous morning commute expected
1110 pm update...

low pressure starting to take shape east of the delmarva
peninsula at 03z. As the 00z models come in, questions continue
as to the ultimate track of this low as it either moves near
cape cod or further s, and how strong either low will be.

Latest kbox 88d radar imagery showing southern edge of light
snow running from S of klwm-near korh-kbdl. Most areas N and w
of this line are reporting -sn, more or less. Northern fringe of
precip associated with the developing mid atlc low is bringing
some light precip into CAPE cod and the islands as it moves ne.

Pretty dry in between the two precip areas, with some patchy
-sn or -rn across S coastal areas.

For now, near term forecast in pretty good shape after 03z
update, though temps across S areas have risen to the lower to
mid 30s so ptype issues in play. Depending upon the track of the
coastal low, may see some more colder air work S overnight into
wed.

Previous discussion...

tonight into Wednesday...

overview...

more substantial snowfall is expected starting this evening into
tonight, as a coastal low pressure system is forecast to emerge
off the DELMARVA and track northeast along a baroclinic zone
close to the nj long island coast. At the same time, the
positive tilt mid upper level trough will migrate eastward.

Appears that a transfer of energy as coastal low jet structure
begins to take hold early tomorrow morning will help phase the
clipper system. This coastal low track has been key for this
forecast as it is projected to track across the CAPE and up
towards the maritimes. At the same time, open wave at 700 mb and
surface high situated over the maritimes will help allow the
warm air to push into southern new england. The lack of
blocking, also allows for this system to be quite progressive.

So with the progressive nature, closer surface low track and
warm air mixing into the i-95 corridor went ahead and adjusted
snowfall amounts and sped the system up.

P-type...

ongoing snowfall this evening will overspread across the region
as cold front from the west approaches. Coastal low will move
up the coast by the morning hours resulting a perhaps a good
thump of snow right around the morning commute. Trended the
onset of the snowfall with wet-bulbing to help indicate some
moderate lift in the snow growth region. However, decent warm
air at 925mb and at 950mb pushes into the i-95 corridor right
after the rush which will transition any snow into rain. This
will help undercut snowfall totals.

Several model p-type algorithms also keeps the precip more as
snow. However, that does not agree with current synoptics and
climatology, especially with a low tracking over the cape. The
other thing we noticed is hi-res guidance including the hrrr and
rap show a snow hole moving across ri and southeast ma towards
the morning commute. This minimum in the guidance is a suggested
in jet energy transfer towards the coastal low. Snow will
eventually fill into that region, but there could be some lower
amounts between 06-12z.

Mixing could reach as far as windham county and up into coastal
essex which is in agreement with ec, GFS and nam. As the storm
moves up towards the maritimes later in the day, it does
strengthen, allowing for any rain to transition back to snow
by the late afternoon hours. This is all depending on where
precip will be ongoing, with our highest confidence right now
for NE ma.

Snow amounts hazards...

higher snow amounts remain across western ma for this evening
which is climatology supported. Appears to be a good swath of
over 0.5 inches across hartford county and up into northern
middlesex county. Thereafter QPF amounts will be lower towards
the canal, with a secondary MAX across the CAPE and islands.

With higher snowfall ratios, expect about 5-8 inches of snowfall
within the current warning, with isolated higher amounts near 9
or 10 inches as you get closer to the berkshires. This area
appears to have good forcing within the snow growth region also
some banding near the berks down into hartford county as shown
by packed thermals in the mid-levels. Thus could see some higher
amounts. Thus will keep the current winter storm warning for
western and central ma as well as hartford and tolland ct.

As you get closer to the i-95 corridor expect around 2-5 as this
region has a better shot of mixing during the mid-morning hours.

This as well as the snow hole will keep amounts lower and thus
have downgraded the i-95 corridor to an advisory. Did not have
the confidence to keep the warning up, especially with the
warmer trends in all of the models. Closer to the south coast
and near the canal, amounts will be less than 2 inches. Most of
the snow will fall tonight into the early morning hours, but
will quickly transition to rain by the morning. Thus went ahead
an dropped the advisory.

Even though amounts and hazards have been lowered, the timing of
this system is not ideal as it brings accumulating snow during
the morning commute. Motorists should use caution and take their
time if heading out in the morning.

Short term tonight through 6 pm Thursday
Coastal low will continue to move towards the maritimes
Wednesday night. This will pull all the moisture with is so
any lingering snow showers will come to an end. Thus will not
expect much in the way of issues with the evening commute.

Cloud cover will improve by the later half of the night, and if
we decouple then temps will bottom out during the overnight
hours. Low temps will range from 20s across the CAPE and islands
to single digits across western ma where fresh snow pack
resides.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
Highlights...

* dry with a warming trend through this weekend
* another storm may bring mostly rain late Monday into Tuesday with
a risk of some interior snow mixed precip ice
quiet pattern expected through the weekend with a moderating trend
as amplified trough moves into the plains with downstream ridging
and rising heights across new eng. Near normal temps Friday then
warming above normal during the weekend with readings mostly in the
40s.

The aforementioned high amplitude trough is forecast to lift ne
toward new eng early next week with a stormy period sometime mon
into Tue with decent low level jet moving across the region. Timing
uncertain at this time range but given the amplitude of the pattern,
prefer somewhat slower solution with bulk of the event occurring mon
night into tue. Ptype also uncertain across interior as ECMWF would
suggest some snow mix ice with strong high pres to the N ne. Gfs
mostly rain. Will take several days to resolve these issues.

Aviation 08z Wednesday through Sunday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday ...

overnight and Wednesday... High confidence in trends. Moderate
confidence in timing.

Mainly MVFR CIGS from interior SE mass ri N and w, andVFR along
the S coast with local MVFR cigs. As steadier -sn -ra moves in,
conditions should lower to MVFR-ifr, with lowest conditions
across N and W mass into N central ct. May still see some patchy
heavy snow from a klwm-korh-kbdl line after 08z. Snow may mix
with or change to rain south of a kghg-kpvd-kwst line during
Wednesday. Conditions improve toVFR across ct and western ma
Wednesday afternoon, and across ri and eastern central ma
Wednesday night. Wind gusts 20-25 knots around nantucket and
parts of CAPE cod.

Wednesday night... High confidence. Any lingering ifr lifr will
improve toVFR from west to east during the overnight.

Kbos terminal... Moderate to high confidence in taf. Morning push
will be impacted.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf. Morning push will be
impacted.

Outlook Thursday night through Sunday ...

Thursday night:VFR. Breezy.

Friday:VFR.

Friday night:VFR. Breezy.

Saturday:VFR. Windy with local gusts to 30 kt.

Saturday night:VFR. Breezy.

Sunday:VFR.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday ... High confidence.

Seas remain at 5 to 7 feet in easterly swells across the
eastern open waters at 04z, and a bit lower across the southern
waters. Seas may lower somewhat through early Wednesday morning.

Approaching coastal low during Wednesday will allow winds and
seas to build across all waters.

The low will track near or SE of the cape, then head toward the
gulf of maine. Could see some gusts near 20-25 kts with seas
building to near 5-8 feet. Small crafts have been extended for
the outer waters into Wednesday night.

Outlook Thursday night through Sunday ...

Thursday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Friday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Friday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Saturday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Saturday night: winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Sunday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Hydrology
1110 pm update...

the stage at the taunton river at bridgewater has fallen to 7.8
feet, which is below flood stage. The flood warning for
bridgewater has been cancelled.

A flood warning remains in effect for the connecticut river at
middle haddam, where ice jams are causing river fluctuations.

Colder weather will persist through midweek which will limit
additional runoff. Continued ice jams expected on some of the
rivers. There will be an increase of snow pack for a portion of
southern new england through Wednesday as several inches of
snow will fall.

For details on specific area rivers, including observed and
forecast river stages, please visit the advanced hydrologic
prediction service (ahps) graphs on our website.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... Winter weather advisory until 6 pm est this evening for ctz004.

Winter storm warning until 3 pm est this afternoon for ctz002-
003.

Ma... Winter weather advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for
maz017>019.

Winter weather advisory until 6 pm est this evening for maz007-
013>016.

Winter storm warning until 3 pm est this afternoon for maz002-
003-008>011.

Winter storm warning until 6 pm est this evening for
maz004>006-012-026.

Ri... Winter weather advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for
riz002>004.

Winter weather advisory until 6 pm est this evening for riz001.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 7 am this morning to 7 pm est this
evening for anz235-237.

Small craft advisory until 8 am est Thursday for anz250-
254>256.

Synopsis... Kjc evt
near term... Belk evt
short term... Dunten
long term... Kjc
aviation... Kjc dunten evt
marine... Kjc dunten evt
hydrology...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 14 mi85 min 1.9 33°F 1029 hPa32°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 14 mi40 min 32°F 33°F1027.5 hPa
44090 22 mi40 min 37°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 24 mi40 min 33°F 34°F1027.7 hPa
FRXM3 25 mi40 min 34°F 31°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 25 mi40 min ESE 7 G 11 34°F 1026.7 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 29 mi70 min ESE 16 G 17 33°F 1027.8 hPa (-1.7)
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 34 mi40 min SE 4.1 G 8 33°F 1027.1 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 34 mi85 min SE 4.1 34°F 1005 hPa31°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 34 mi40 min E 7 G 9.9 33°F 33°F1027.4 hPa
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 34 mi80 min NE 3.9 G 5.8 32°F 38°F1 ft1028.7 hPa (-0.8)32°F
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 36 mi40 min E 6 G 9.9 33°F 34°F1026.9 hPa
PVDR1 36 mi40 min ESE 5.1 G 7 34°F 1027.6 hPa32°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 37 mi40 min SSE 6 G 8 33°F 33°F1027.2 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 38 mi40 min ESE 9.9 G 11 33°F 31°F1027.5 hPa
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 43 mi80 min SSE 14 G 18 37°F 41°F4 ft1028.3 hPa (-0.7)
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 45 mi40 min NNE 4.1 G 5.1 33°F 34°F1027.7 hPa
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 47 mi40 min 33°F 1027.4 hPa

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Last
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N6
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N4
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N9
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N11
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G11

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA11 mi75 minESE 61.50 miLight Snow32°F30°F93%1028.8 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA12 mi18 minE 310.00 miOvercast33°F30°F89%1027.7 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA14 mi17 minESE 410.00 miOvercast32°F32°F100%1027.4 hPa
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA20 mi18 minE 310.00 miOvercast33°F30°F89%1027.3 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA23 mi14 minNE 31.75 miLight Snow Fog/Mist32°F30°F96%1027.4 hPa
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA23 mi17 minE 63.00 miLight Snow0°F0°F%1027.4 hPa

Wind History from FMH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--------------CalmCalm4W8SW7S8S5SE4CalmS5S5CalmCalmE4CalmSE6SE5
1 day agoNE15NE13
G18
NE11
G18
NE13NE13
G20
N11
G21
NE14
G20
NE15
G24
N16
G24
N15
G23
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G25
N12
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G24
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2 days agoNW7
G14
NW9N7N7
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G15
N5
G15
N10N9
G19
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--6
G14
N10N8
G15
NW7N6N6
G13
NE12NE10
G16
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NE13NE9NE11NE10
G18
NE11
G18

Tide / Current Tables for Great Hill, Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts
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Great Hill
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Wed -- 01:03 AM EST     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:20 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:04 AM EST     4.02 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:54 PM EST     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:39 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:22 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 08:19 PM EST     3.55 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.1-0.2-00.41.122.93.743.82.91.70.7-0-0.200.51.32.23.13.53.42.71.7

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:22 AM EST     -4.17 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 03:28 AM EST     0.19 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:28 AM EST     3.97 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:20 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:41 AM EST     -0.15 knots Slack
Wed -- 12:37 PM EST     -4.52 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 03:50 PM EST     0.03 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:39 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:22 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 06:57 PM EST     4.25 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 10:22 PM EST     -0.03 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-4.1-4-3.4-22.13.43.93.93.52.5-1.7-3.6-4.4-4.5-3.9-2.81.33.244.343.41.9-2.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.