Saturday, November17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ocean Grove, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 4:24PM Saturday November 17, 2018 11:35 PM EST (04:35 UTC) Moonrise 2:53PMMoonset 1:23AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ236 Narragansett Bay- 1006 Pm Est Sat Nov 17 2018
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sun..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sun night..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. A chance of rain.
Mon..W winds around 5 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of rain.
Mon night..N winds around 5 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of rain after midnight.
Tue..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft. Rain likely, mainly in the morning.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 foot or less. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 1006 Pm Est Sat Nov 17 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pressure sweeps the waters overnight. Thereafter, for the early week period, a series of weak low pressure centers with some wet weather will sweep across new england. Midweek high pressure ever briefly before another low center crosses the waters on Thursday. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ocean Grove, MA
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location: 41.74, -71.3     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 180305
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
1005 pm est Sat nov 17 2018

Synopsis
Diminishing W winds as high pressure shifts across the region
into Sunday. Expect unsettled conditions Sunday night through
Monday as weak low pressure moves across, bringing periods of
light rain and or snow. More cold air will move in by mid week
into thanksgiving, though it should remain dry. Cold air could
be near or record breaking for late november.

Near term through Sunday
Weak cold front settles through southern new england tonight.

This will bring some cooling of temperatures. Skies show some
clearing trends along the canadian border, behind the front. But
trends from satellite keep clouds over southern new england much
of the night with some clearing 3-6 am. Observed surface
temperatures at 9 pm were 3-5f less cold than expected, except
in ri and SE mass where partly clear skies allowed for more
cooling and temps were close to what was expected.

Changes include more clouds for much of the night, with a
partial clearing trend toward morning. Hourly and min temps have
been bumped up 3-4f reflecting the added clouds and slower
cooling.

Otherwise a dry and cool night.

Short term Sunday night through Monday
A dry start much of Sunday, but a weak weather disturbance sweeping
through Sunday night into Monday. Light outcomes with the potential
for a sub-advisory, trace up to 2 inches of snow, especially over
n W portions of ma and ct, highest amounts across the high terrain.

Otherwise light rain. Potential Monday am commute impacts.

Weak, stretched mid-level shortwave impulse through broader cyclonic
flow. Streaming moist-continental h6-9 airmass undergoing isentropic
ascent along 285-295k surfaces, aided via orographic lift along high
terrain. Outcomes along a fairly diffuse low center with ill-defined
boundaries, tandem subtle increasing thicknesses, however remaining
cold enough for snow over N W ma and ct. Support via a neighboring
jet-streak downstream, some rrq influences, a thermal wind response
that extends down to h925-85 yielding a convergent nose of the low-
level jet out ahead of the diffuse low center.

Notable model spread. In general, global forecast guidance broader
with outcomes, stronger lift and ascent parameters, whereas high-res
forecast guidance is weaker, blotchy, more focused over high terrain
where lift is best. Consensus speaking, h8-9 frontogenesis noted
with convergent low-level jet nose, as is the moist-continental h6-9
airmass, ice within the column, and conditionally unstable profiles
through the snow-growth region upon which to act upon. Anti-cyclonic
ascent likely but the depth and magnitude of which remain uncertain.

Overall, a weak event forecast models are likely having difficulty
defining, but rain snow outcomes appear likely.

Model forecast snow probabilities focused over N W ma and ct. Though
spread exists within model forecast plume diagrams with respect to
liquid-equivalent precipitation. Favoring a consensus blend approach
with available guidance, especially wpc nerfc forecasts, working
with other forecast offices. Sub-advisory event with a trace to
2 inches over N W areas of ma and ct, especially the high terrain.

Kicking off as early as late afternoon Sunday, however the bulk
of the outcomes centered around midnight into early Monday morning.

Some potential Monday am commute outcomes especially along the route-2
corridor and western portions of i-90 with roads becoming snow covered
making for slick, hazardous travel as snow accumulation is expected
on all surfaces. Also expected reductions in visibility.

Long term Monday night through Saturday
Highlights...

* high pressure brings dry and cold conditions for Wed through
thanksgiving day
* signs a potential warm up late next week into next weekend
overview...

generally looking at a broad mid level trough lingering over the
northeast through at least thanksgiving day. Modest ridging is then
expected late next week into next weekend. General agreement with
this overall pattern among the 17 12z guidance. Some detail
differences with the timing through the upcoming week, which is not
uncommon. Will favor a consensus approach to smooth over the less
predictable details.

Temperatures...

the majority of this period will most likely feature below normal
temperatures. Thanksgiving looks to be the coldest period, with a
strong signal of 2-3 standard deviations below normal. High
temperatures expected to struggle to reach freezing. Modest warmup
late next week, but not a guarantee.

Precipitation...

looking like a busy first half of next week. Complicated pattern as
a low pressure moves into the great lakes Monday night, then
possible transfers some energy into a coastal low pressure off the
mid atlantic coast Tuesday. Between these two, there is a risk for
some rain and or snow. It will all hinge on the timing details, the
more this event occurs at night, the more probable accumulating snow
will be in the forecast.

Mainly dry weather expected Wednesday through Saturday. Based on
current temperature forecast, there is the possibility for some
ocean effect snow across the outer CAPE and nantucket Wednesday
night into Thursday.

Aviation 03z Sunday through Thursday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Monday ... High confidence.

Overnight... VFR continues. Observed cloud bases at 10 pm were
4500 to 5000 feet, and should continue. Mixture of sky cover
amounts, but mostly bkn-ovc with few-sct from pvd to CAPE cod,
metro boston, and north shore. Expect this coverage to thin a
little toward morning. Diminishing wind overnight.

Sunday... RemainingVFR however CIGS thickening and
lowering towards evening. Potential MVFR across the high terrain
by 0z with possible -ra -sn beginning. Winds shifting S sw
through the day.

Sunday night through Monday...

MVFR-ifr mix with widespread -ra -sn. Wintry outcomes more NW versus
wet weather outcomes se. Lower vsbys with -sn. S SW flow becoming
w NW towards Monday evening.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in TAF through 00z.VFR through
00z. After 00z Monday, lowering MVFR to ifr, with -ra moving
into the terminal Sunday night and continuing through the
Monday am push.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in TAF through 21z.VFR through
21z. After 22z Sunday, lowering MVFR ifr, -sn forecast Sunday
night into Monday morning mixing with -ra, impacts to the
morning am push.

Outlook Monday night through Thursday ...

Monday night:VFR. Chance shsn and shra. Patchy br.

Tuesday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
shsn.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night:VFR. Breezy.

Thanksgiving day:VFR. Windy with local gusts to 30 kt.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Monday ... High confidence.

Overnight... West winds continue to gust near 25 kt on mass bay
and the outer waters, and seas continue near 5 feet on the outer
waters. Continue small craft advisory, but expect winds waves to
trend lighter overnight.

Sunday... Good boating weather as both winds and seas will be
light. Will see W winds turn S SW through the day. Increasing
clouds out of the sw, lowering and thickening ahead of the next
weather system with the threat of some rain Sunday night into
Monday.

Sunday night into Monday...

rain overspreading the waters as S SW flow continues. Gusts up
to 20 kts. No hazards forecast for boaters but there could be
some reductions in visibility due to the rain which is expected
to be light. Winds shifting W NW by Monday evening.

Outlook Monday night through Thursday ...

Monday night: winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.

Tuesday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Chance of rain showers.

Tuesday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Wednesday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

Wednesday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Thanksgiving day: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds
with areas of gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 4 am est Sunday for anz250-254-255.

Small craft advisory until 1 am est Sunday for anz251-256.

Synopsis... Belk sipprell
near term... Wtb belk sipprell
short term... Sipprell
long term... Belk
aviation... Wtb belk sipprell
marine... Wtb belk sipprell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 3 mi42 min WNW 8 G 9.9 41°F 48°F1023.8 hPa
PVDR1 5 mi42 min W 2.9 G 4.1 40°F 1023.8 hPa28°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 7 mi111 min W 4.1 41°F 1023 hPa29°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 7 mi42 min NW 4.1 G 7 40°F 1024 hPa
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 7 mi42 min NW 4.1 G 5.1 40°F 44°F1023.3 hPa
FRXM3 7 mi42 min 43°F 30°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 7 mi42 min W 8.9 G 12 42°F 1024 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 8 mi42 min 42°F 49°F1024.2 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 12 mi42 min WNW 2.9 G 4.1 40°F 49°F1024.1 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 16 mi42 min W 6 G 8.9 42°F 46°F1023.7 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 28 mi36 min NW 17 G 19 44°F 1024.1 hPa (+1.4)
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 37 mi42 min 44°F 49°F1023.1 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 43 mi111 min 4.1 43°F 1023 hPa29°F
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 45 mi42 min 42°F 1022.8 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 49 mi42 min W 2.9 G 4.1 40°F 44°F1023.9 hPa

Wind History for Conimicut Light, RI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Providence, Theodore Francis Green State Airport, RI7 mi45 minWNW 410.00 miPartly Cloudy37°F28°F70%1023.9 hPa
Pawtucket, North Central State Airport, RI13 mi40 minW 410.00 miOvercast36°F27°F70%1018 hPa
Newport, Newport State Airport, RI14 mi43 minWNW 510.00 miFair40°F28°F65%1023.5 hPa
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA18 mi44 minWSW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy38°F27°F65%1023.4 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA18 mi43 minW 510.00 miFair37°F28°F73%1023.4 hPa

Wind History from PVD (wind in knots)
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2 days agoN8N9N7N6N8N5N7NE5NE4N4N7N6N5N6E7NE8NE9NE11NE8NE10NE11NE8NE9NE12

Tide / Current Tables for Warren, Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island
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Warren
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Sat -- 12:23 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:10 AM EST     3.91 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:36 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:06 AM EST     1.13 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:53 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:30 PM EST     4.03 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:22 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:40 PM EST     0.78 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.22.93.63.93.72.921.31.11.21.41.72.12.83.543.93.32.31.30.90.80.91.2

Tide / Current Tables for Westport River Entrance, Massachusetts Current
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Westport River Entrance
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Sat -- 12:22 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 01:27 AM EST     2.19 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 03:44 AM EST     -0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:06 AM EST     -2.28 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:35 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:36 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 01:52 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:56 PM EST     1.99 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 04:05 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:22 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:27 PM EST     -2.26 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 10:38 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.62.12.11.1-0.4-1.8-2.3-2.1-1.5-1-0.40.311.721.50.1-1.3-2.2-2.2-1.7-1-0.40.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.