Wednesday, June28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ocean Grove, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:11AMSunset 8:25PM Wednesday June 28, 2017 8:20 AM EDT (12:20 UTC) Moonrise 10:23AMMoonset 11:50PM Illumination 20% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ236 Narragansett Bay- 716 Am Edt Wed Jun 28 2017
Today..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Am Edt Wed Jun 28 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Weak cold front moves offshore early this morning with west winds to follow, as high pressure slides south of new england today and tonight. A warm front moves across central new england Thu with increasing sw winds across the waters. This results in a prolong period of ssw winds across the waters into the weekend along with the risk of showers and Thunderstorms Thu night and again Sunday. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ocean Grove, MA
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location: 41.74, -71.3     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 281053
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
653 am edt Wed jun 28 2017

Synopsis
A frontal passage overnight has ushered in a drier airmass across
the region early this morning. Other than an isolated shower or
thunderstorm across northern massachusetts this afternoon, high
pressure south of new england will provide mainly dry weather along
with temperatures slightly cooler than normal. Thursday will be our
transition day as a warm front moves across the area with the risk
of showers and thunderstorms Thu night. Summer heat and humidity
arrives Fri and continues into the weekend. A cold front likely
breaks the heat and humidity later Sunday and will be accompanied by
thunderstorms. Not as warm or humid early next week including the
fourth of july holiday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
700 am update...

overall trend is on track for today with just minor adjustments
to account for current trends. Valley fog as noticed by visible
satellite is beginning to lift this morning as winds begin to
pick up. Otherwise temps will quickly be on the rise as
radiational heating takes place.

Previous discussion...

surface trough has moved offshore with post frontal airmass over the
region as winds have shifted to the wnw across the area. Despite
this drier airmass where winds have decoupled shallow patchy fog has
developed. However with west winds just above the surface (i.E., orh
27009kt), after sunrise these winds will mix to the surface and low
level moisture will dissipate. Thus fog will be short lived.

Therefore the morning hours will feature plenty of sunshine and
temps rising from the 50s into the 60s. However scattered to broken
cu scu clouds will develop this afternoon given the cyclonic flow
and cold temps aloft (-20c at 500 mb). However with mean trough axis
offshore column becomes fairly dry. This will limit any potential
shower t-storm to isolated areal coverage. Thus expecting mainly a
dry day ahead. However can t rule out an isolated shower or
thunderstorm across northern ma given proximity to cold pool aloft
and higher terrain of worcester county. In addition lfq of upper
level jet streak tracks from ny state into northern ma. This will
enhance forcing for ascent. Again, any shower t-storm development
will hinge on available moisture, which appears limited and will
confine areal coverage to isolated.

Otherwise expecting a mainly dry weather with comfortable
temperatures of 75-80 and dew pts falling into the 40s in response
to deepening blyr up to 750 mb. These high temperatures will average
a few degs cooler than normal. More of a sep airmass than late
june.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Thursday
Tonight...

rising heights and mid level flow transitioning to anticyclonic will
provide dry weather. High pressure south of new england results in
light west winds. This combined with mostly clear skies and a dry
airmass will yield another cool night with lows in the 50s. Thus
have based mins on the cooler MOS temps.

Thursday...

this will be our transition day as a warm front lifts across central
new england. Not expecting much if any rain here in southern new
england, mainly just an increase in clouds with the greatest risk of
any light rain focused across northern ma. Increasing pressure
gradient will result in ssw winds increasing especially across ri
and eastern ma later in the day. Highs will climb into the upper 70s
and low 80s.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
Highlights...

* hot and humid conditions return Friday into Sunday
* increasing risk for scatter showers thunder Thursday pm into Sunday
* cooler and less humid Monday and Tuesday
pattern details...

overall the deterministic models and their ensemble means have a
fair handing on the evolution of the synoptic pattern for the
period. However, there still remains the timing and strength
difference with each shortwave. Beginning on Friday, quasi-zonal
flow aloft as a surface warm front pushes through the region. The
upper level pattern become more amplified as noted the previous
days. This will result in a deeper trough over the northern plains,
and thus a building of the sub-tropical ridge over the east coast.

This ridge stalls an approaching cold front for the weekend before
pushing through on Sunday. Pattern change aloft for early next week
as the region is more in the broad trough keeping heat and humidity
at bay. Overall, trended towards a blend in the guidance unless
otherwise noted below.

Details...

Thursday night...

warm front will be north of the region by Thursday night. Any
convection that does develop will ride along the mid-level flow
which is parallel with the front. Higher theta-e will pool into the
region as 925mb LLJ begins to develop increase. While there is some
slight height rises overnight, LLJ may provide enough lift within
the warm sector will help trigger showers or thunderstorms. Current
guidance is indicating the bulk of the action will remain north of
southern new england. However, with increasing moisture transport in
the mid-levels combined with higher k, 30-40 kts of bulk shear and
lapse rates near 6c km, cannot rule out new convection refiring
along the southern edge of this system. Best location to see any
precip will be north of the pike, ESP north of route 2.

Aside from precip chances, increasing cloud cover and dewpoints will
limit cooling during the overnight hours. Low temps will remain in
the mid to upper 60s.

Friday into Sunday...

heat and humidity will filter into the southern new england during
this time period. Depending on how Thursday pm goes, it may have
impacts to the convection potential on Friday. Surface high pressure
well offshore will put southern new england in southwest flow
resulting in increasing low level moisture. Plenty of heating with
cape values over 1000 j kg with some deep layer moisture per k
values. Appear scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely
especially across the western half of the region. However the
potential is limited as mid-level heights rising through the day.

This will limit storms from becoming widespread.

Building subtropical ridge will keep the first half of Saturday dry.

Southwest flow will continue across the region as pwat values near 2
std above normal. LLJ will begin to strengthen as great lakes trough
begins to approach the region. Surface trough will move through
upstate ny towards southern new england later in the day. This
trough may be a trigger for a few strong storms. One issue is the
850 mb temps which will be near 17c. This could be a potential cap
which could keep most of the area. Something to watch over the next
few days.

Subtropical ridge will push eastward by Sunday as cold front
approaches from the west. Plenty of instability to work with as
shear values increase to 30-40 kts. Anticipate scattered showers and
thunderstorms, with the potential for a few strong storms. Still
timing issues with the frontal passage so confidence is low.

Temperatures in this period will be quiet warm compared to the past
week. Expect high temps on Friday and Saturday in the upper 80s to
low 90s. Cooling temps aloft on Sunday will keep high temps in the
mid 80s. Sultry dewpoints reaching near 70f could result in heat
headlines on Saturday.

Monday into Tuesday...

upper level trough will move over the northeast by early next week.

This will limit the heat and humidity. Current guidance shows
seasonable temps with highs in the low to mid 80s. Northwest flow
takes hold bringing in drier air in the mid-levels. Cannot rule out
an isolated shower but appears that the overall period may be dry.

Aviation 12z Wednesday through Sunday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday ... High confidence.

7 am update...

after 12z...

vfr, dry conditions along with a modest west wind. Isolated
-shra -tsra possible 18z-00z northern ma including CAPE ann area.

Tonight...

vfr, dry weather and light winds.

Thursday...

vfr with low risk of light rain across northern ma as warm front
moves across the area.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf. Wnw wind 15-20 kt today
will preclude seabreeze from moving onshore.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf.

Outlook Thursday night through Sunday ...

Thursday night... High confidence.VFR south of the pike. Possible
MVFR north of the pike as showers thunder moves through.

Friday into Sunday... Moderate confidence. Patchy early morning fog
each day. Otherwise mainlyVFR, except local ifr in possible strong
thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours through
the period. Southwest winds through the period with gusts near 20
kts.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday ... High confidence.

Today...

light wnw winds this morning increasing to 15-20 kt this afternoon,
strongest winds near shore. Good vsby and dry weather.

Tonight...

high pressure south of new england yields light wnw winds along with
dry weather and good vsby.

Thursday...

warm front lifts across central new england. This results in winds
becoming ssw and may increase up to 25 kt late in the day across the
near shore waters of ri and southeast ma. May need a small craft
advisory.

Outlook Thursday night through Sunday ...

Thursday night into Friday... Small craft advisories will likely
be needed. Increasing SW winds with gusts to 25+ kt likely,
especially over nearshore waters. Building seas may reach 6 to 8
ft.

Saturday into Sunday... Sw winds continue, mainly 20 kts with
lingering seas. Scattered thunderstorms, some with reduced
visibilities and strong gusty winds especially on Sunday.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Nocera dunten
near term... Nocera dunten
short term... Nocera
long term... Dunten
aviation... Nocera dunten
marine... Nocera dunten


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 3 mi50 min WNW 15 G 17 63°F 70°F1017.1 hPa
PVDR1 5 mi50 min WNW 8 G 13 64°F 1016.8 hPa51°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 7 mi95 min W 5.1 60°F 1017 hPa52°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 7 mi50 min NW 4.1 G 7 65°F 1017 hPa
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 7 mi50 min NNW 11 G 16 64°F 69°F1016.3 hPa
FRXM3 7 mi50 min 64°F 53°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 7 mi50 min WNW 11 G 15 63°F 1016.3 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 8 mi50 min 63°F 71°F1017.5 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 12 mi50 min WNW 8.9 G 15 64°F 68°F1017.5 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 16 mi50 min NW 7 G 12 63°F 63°F1017.2 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 28 mi80 min W 8.9 G 9.9 63°F 1017.5 hPa (+1.2)
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 37 mi50 min 66°F 68°F1016.6 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 43 mi95 min 2.9 61°F 1017 hPa53°F
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 45 mi50 min 61°F 1015.3 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 49 mi50 min NNE 1 G 1.9 63°F 67°F1017.8 hPa

Wind History for Conimicut Light, RI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Providence, Theodore Francis Green State Airport, RI7 mi29 minWNW 1310.00 miA Few Clouds64°F53°F68%1017.2 hPa
N. Kingston / Quonset, RI11 mi30 minNW 1015.00 miClear64°F50°F60%1017.3 hPa
Newport, Newport State Airport, RI14 mi27 minWNW 810.00 miFair64°F53°F68%1017.1 hPa
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA18 mi28 minWNW 710.00 miFair64°F51°F63%1016.5 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA18 mi27 minWNW 810.00 miFair65°F52°F63%1016.6 hPa

Wind History from PVD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3W5W3SE6SE10S12SW19
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SW9SW7W12
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1 day agoNW10N10
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SW13--SW9SW7S6S5S5S3NE3CalmNW3CalmCalmSW3Calm
2 days ago3W9SW4SW10S9
G14
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G26
SW5S5SW8SW11W6NW5N6NW5NW7W4W4W5W5W8

Tide / Current Tables for Warren, Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island
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Warren
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 05:33 AM EDT     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:22 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:23 PM EDT     5.28 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:49 PM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:49 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.85.13.61.90.6-0.1-0.20.212.13.34.55.25.14.12.61.20.40.20.51.11.93.14.2

Tide / Current Tables for Westport River Entrance, Massachusetts Current
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Westport River Entrance
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:13 AM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:43 AM EDT     -2.81 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:38 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:22 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:29 AM EDT     2.56 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 12:53 PM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:17 PM EDT     -2.59 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:29 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:58 PM EDT     2.11 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 11:48 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.4-1.3-2.6-2.8-2.2-1.4-0.50.31.11.92.52.41.5-0.2-1.8-2.6-2.4-1.8-1.1-0.40.41.11.82.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.