Monday, September25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bertsch-Oceanview, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 7:08PM Monday September 25, 2017 10:08 AM PDT (17:08 UTC) Moonrise 11:28AMMoonset 9:38PM Illumination 25% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ330 1126 Pm Pdt Fri Aug 9 2013
.thunderstorms over the waters... Thunderstorms over the waters have weakened but isolated storms will continue overnight. Mariners can expect gusty and erratic winds with the storms along with frequent lightning. If caught on the open water stay below deck if possible...keep away from ungrounded metal objects. Lat...lon 4397 12411 4396 12411 4400 12413 4284 12455 4242 12440 4225 12441 4205 12428 4184 12422 4181 12580 4198 12579 4220 12589 4370 12576 4386 12565 4399 12562 4403 12414
PZZ300 846 Am Pdt Mon Sep 25 2017
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..High pressure offshore and a thermal trough along the coast will maintain gusty north winds and steep wind seas south of cape blanco. Winds and seas will peak each afternoon and evening. North winds may increase even further late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, with seas becoming very steep and hazardous south of cape blanco. North winds and steep seas will then gradually diminish Wednesday. Light southerly winds and light seas are expected Wednesday night into Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bertsch-Oceanview, CA
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location: 41.75, -124.18     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 251606
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
906 am pdt Mon sep 25 2017

Discussion Mid level clouds are streaming into southern oregon
and northern california under a northerly steering flow. A weak
impulse is also moving into northern oregon and models show light
showers in the northern part of the coastal waters but none
inland. This looks reasonable as time height display of points in
douglas county shows cloud base to be quite high. The surface
analysis also shows the thermal trough is building along the coast
up to gold beach. This will lead to offshore winds tonight and
Tuesday night. It appears that NE to E winds will be strongest
tonight but the lowest humidity will not be until Tuesday night.

This will present a fire weather concern especially for the chetco
bar fire area and other fires in western siskiyou county, although
recent rain could mitigate some of the concern.

Wednesday and Thursday will be the warmest day for inland area as
the thermal trough moves inland. Confidence is moderate to high
that the high temperatures for the rogue valley will be around 90.

The next front is still on track to bring slightly cooler
temperatures to our area Friday and next weekend but it will also
bring breezy conditions. Fb

Aviation 25 12z TAF cycle... Patchy ifr to lifr fog and low
ceilings are occurring along the coast north of CAPE blanco, and
these should lift toVFR later this morning. There is moderate
confidence in ifr conditions returning to the coast
tonight. Elsewhere,VFR will prevail. Sk

Marine Updated 230 am pdt Monday, 25 september 2017... High
pressure offshore and a thermal trough along the coast will maintain
gusty north winds and steep wind seas south of CAPE blanco through
Tuesday. Winds and seas will peak each afternoon and evening through
Tuesday. North winds may increase even further late Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday evening and bring a mix of steep to very
steep seas south of CAPE blanco with steep seas and small craft
advisory winds possible north of CAPE blanco. There is a slight
chance that gales develop late Tuesday afternoon south of cape
blanco beyond 10 nm from shore. North winds and steep seas gradually
diminish Wednesday. Light southerly winds and light seas are
expected Wednesday night into Thursday. Sk

Prev discussion issued 632 am pdt Mon sep 25 2017
updated aviation discussion.

Discussion... Now that we are officially in fall, summer like
conditions make a return this week. The weak system that is
visible on satellite washes out to the north of our forecast area
as the upper level ridge nudges over the top of our area. As the
upper ridge continues to move over the region, offshore flow
spreads across the east side by Tuesday morning. This pattern
remains in place through the middle of the week with temperatures
rising to near 90 in the west side valleys on Wednesday. The
thermal trough at the coast moves inland Thursday, bringing the
warmest day of the stretch. At the end of the week the GFS and the
ecmwf remain in good agreement, with both showing the upper ridge
moving east and a weak front moving in Friday. A weak ridge
builds Sunday, and another, slightly stronger front moves in
Monday.

Even though we are officially in fall, fire season is not over!
across the region things will heat up and become very dry again
by mid week, and the things that can cause fires, like backyard
debris burning, including the use of burn barrels are still
prohibited and can cause wildfires!
sven
aviation... 25 12z TAF cycle... Patchy ifr to lifr fog and low
ceilings are occurring along the coast north of CAPE blanco, and
these should lift toVFR later this morning. There is moderate
confidence in ifr conditions returning to the coast tonight.

Elsewhere,VFR will prevail. Sk
marine... Updated 230 am pdt Monday, 25 september 2017... High
pressure offshore and a thermal trough along the coast will maintain
gusty north winds and steep wind seas south of CAPE blanco through
Tuesday. Winds and seas will peak each afternoon and evening through
Tuesday. North winds may increase even further late Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday evening and bring a mix of steep to very
steep seas south of CAPE blanco with steep seas and small craft
advisory winds possible north of CAPE blanco. There is a slight
chance that gales develop late Tuesday afternoon south of cape
blanco beyond 10 nm from shore. North winds and steep seas gradually
diminish Wednesday. Light southerly winds and light seas are
expected Wednesday night into Thursday. Sk
fire weather... Updated 300 am pdt Monday, 25 september 2017... .

The warming and drying trend will continue over the next several
days, with breezy north winds in the afternoon, and breezy northeast
to east winds overnight in the high terrain of western sikiyou
county and curry county, as well as the cascades. Confidence is now
high that some poor to moderate humidity recoveries will affect
upper slopes and ridges Tuesday night through Thursday night. The
overall breeziest night will be Tuesday night, but the driest
conditions are expected Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

Afternoon temperatures are expected to peak, and humidity values are
expected to be at their lowest, around Thursday as the thermal
trough moves inland. With dry and unstable conditions expected by
that point, if there is a period of time where fire activity picks
up, then that would be it.

At no time during the next week do we expect critical fire weather
conditions. There will be periods of breezy and dry conditions, but
winds and humidity aren't expected to align enough to warrant any
fire weather watches or red flag warnings.

When the thermal trough moves east of the forecast area on Friday
afternoon, westerly winds will become gusty for much of the forecast
area.

Looking further out, recent trends in the long range models suggest
some wetting rains are possible roughly by the middle of next week,
but confidence on this is low. -sk bpn

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Ca... None.

Pacific coastal waters... Small craft advisory until 5 am pdt Wednesday for pzz356-376.

Hazardous seas watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday
night for pzz376.

Fjb fjb nsk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 0 mi51 min NNE 1.9 G 2.9 60°F 57°F1018.3 hPa
46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA 13 mi79 min N 18 G 21 56°F 55°F5 ft1017.5 hPa (+1.1)
46244 - Humboldt Bay, North Spit, CA 60 mi48 min 56°F5 ft

Wind History for Crescent City, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Crescent City, Jack McNamara Field Airport, CA4 mi13 minNNW 910.00 miFair58°F53°F84%1018.6 hPa
Brookings, Brookings Airport, OR23 mi13 minSE 410.00 miA Few Clouds68°F52°F57%1019.4 hPa

Wind History from CEC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW7N6NW3NW10N9N11N13N9N13N7CalmCalmN5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW12
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N10N6NE4N3CalmN3CalmN4CalmN3NE3NE7NE7NE5N5

Tide / Current Tables for Crescent City, California
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Crescent City
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:53 AM PDT     5.42 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:07 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:21 AM PDT     2.60 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:27 PM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:24 PM PDT     6.24 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:08 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:18 PM PDT     0.91 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:38 PM PDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.43.54.55.25.45.14.53.732.62.73.2455.86.26.15.64.63.42.21.40.91

Tide / Current Tables for Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon
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Brookings
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:54 AM PDT     5.42 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:08 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:25 AM PDT     2.60 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:28 PM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:25 PM PDT     6.24 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:08 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:22 PM PDT     0.91 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:37 PM PDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.33.54.55.25.45.14.53.732.62.73.244.95.76.26.25.64.63.42.31.40.91

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.