Monday, June18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bertsch-Oceanview, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:42AMSunset 8:52PM Monday June 18, 2018 12:14 AM PDT (07:14 UTC) Moonrise 10:20AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 24% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ330 1126 Pm Pdt Fri Aug 9 2013
.thunderstorms over the waters... Thunderstorms over the waters have weakened but isolated storms will continue overnight. Mariners can expect gusty and erratic winds with the storms along with frequent lightning. If caught on the open water stay below deck if possible...keep away from ungrounded metal objects. Lat...lon 4397 12411 4396 12411 4400 12413 4284 12455 4242 12440 4225 12441 4205 12428 4184 12422 4181 12580 4198 12579 4220 12589 4370 12576 4386 12565 4399 12562 4403 12414
PZZ300 909 Pm Pdt Sun Jun 17 2018
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..North winds have largely diminished, but seas will remain hazardous to small craft through much of tomorrow due to fresh swell and a moderate west swell. Winds and seas diminish below small craft advisory levels in all areas tomorrow evening and remain relatively light through at least Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bertsch-Oceanview, CA
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location: 41.75, -124.18     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 180410
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
910 pm pdt Sun jun 17 2018

Update
An update to the forecast was sent this evening around 740 pm pdt
to expand the isolated shower and thunderstorm threat westward to
about scottsburg, camas valley, and the illinois valley area, as
well as to diminish precipitation probabilities east of the
cascades to the isolated to scattered range. Btl

Discussion
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are winding down this
evening after a flurry of activity expanded onto the west side
all the way to about elkton, galice, and the illinois valley this
evening. Here at the medford airport we experienced a 47 mph wind
gust, possibly associated with a wet microburst from a cluster of
thunderstorms that were moving in. In nearby eagle point 0.42" of
rain was reported. Thunderstorm outflow gusts in the 30 to 40 mph
range were observed in the applegate valley area, as well. Unlike
yesterday, no reports of hail were received today.

The remaining activity this evening will continue to wind down,
but we do expect an uptick in shower coverage in lake county
overnight into Monday morning as an impulse associated with the
upper level low backs in there.

Monday afternoon and evening's showers and thunderstorms are
expected to form from the cascades eastward, so the west side is
should experience a warmer and drier day. Btl

Aviation For 17 18z tafs... Stratus fog will return to the
coast north of CAPE blanco again this evening. Elsewhere, conditions
will generally beVFR through the TAF period. However, showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening
east of a line from roseburg to grants pass. These storms will be
capable of producing gusty and erratic outflow winds, brief heavy
rain, and brief MVFR ceilings and visibility in and near the cores.

-dw

Marine Updated 130 pm pdt Sunday 17 june 2018... North winds have
continuing to diminish this afternoon as the trough weakens and
moves inland. As a result, winds are expected to drop below small
craft advisory levels after 00z except for a very small portion
south of brookings between 6 and 10 nm out to sea. The winds will
decrease below advisory levels by sunset. That being said, guidance
is now showing that the combination of wind waves and fresh swell
will keep steep, small craft advisory level waves over the next 24
hours, and have changed the small craft advisory to a small craft
advisory for seas. Conditions improve for all areas by tomorrow
night tonight, and relatively light winds and low seas are expected
Monday through at least Wednesday. -schaaf

Fire weather The cut-off upper low continues to wrap moisture
around it into our area today. This is bringing an unstable air mass
to the region and cells are building over the region. With northeast
steering flow and instability to the east storms are on the west side
as well. The upper low then slowly begins to migrate northeast
moving over extreme SE oregon by Monday morning. The upper low then
slowly wobbles east Monday with thunderstorms over cascades and the
east side. An upper ridge will build in behind the exiting upper low
Tuesday, bringing a dramatic warmup and a drying pattern into mid
week. Sven

Prev discussion issued 236 pm pdt Sun jun 17 2018
discussion... The upper low that brought isolated showers and
thunderstorms yesterday is now east of the cascades. However
instability still exist as cumulus clouds over most of the area
inland away from the coast. The latest radar shows isolated showers
moving from north to northeast to south to southwest.

Instability is expected to be greatest east of the cascades and
that's where the best chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms
will be. Unlike yesterday, the steering flow will be more northerly,
so there's a better chance for storms to remain over the cascades.

However there's still a slight north to northeast component and the
winds are strong enough where a few of these storms could come off
the higher terrain and migrate southwest towards the rogue valley.

Also unlike yesterday, the morning sounding shows little or no cap
and higher precipitable water values (0.76 of an inch), so we think
instability will be higher west of the cascades. The earlier
thinking of keeping a slight chance of thunderstorms along or just
east of interstate 5 looks good. Wetting rains are possible east of
the cascades, but rainfall amounts should not be excessive due to a
stronger steering flow.

On Monday, showers and isolated thunderstorms will shift further
east and we think it should be mainly east of the cascades. However
there is some evidence of marginal instability and moisture along
the cascades, so we'll maintain a slight chance of thunderstorms
there. Meanwhile it will be dry and warmer west of the cascades away
from the coast. Meanwhile the models are indicating marine stratus
will be over the waters and could push slightly inland with weak
onshore flow. The marine stratus should peel back along or just
slightly off the coast in the afternoon.

The upper low will move east of our area Tuesday and at the same
time weak shortwave riding builds into southwest oregon Tuesday
afternoon. Could not rule out a few isolated showers Tuesday
morning in lake county due to weak instability and trigger,
otherwise we'll be dry with a rapid warmup, at least west of the
cascades inland away from the coast with afternoon temperatures
ending up 10-15 degrees above normal. The warm up won't be as
pronounced east of the cascades, that's because of the exiting upper
low and cloud cover wrapping around the backside if it. Also the
marine stratus remains in place, so we'll once again be dealing with
overcast skies in similar locations as Monday in the morning then
retreating at or just off the coast in the afternoon.

The upper ridge builds over the area on Wednesday. The ECMWF shows
an upper trough moving along the ridge and reaching the oregon coast
Wednesday evening. The GFS also shows this, but it is weaker and
slightly faster. Either way, the models show weak instability along
the cascades, so could not rule out an isolated thunderstorms in the
northern cascades and eastward into the chemult crescent area.

Wednesday will be hot as temperatures push into the mid to upper 90s
in the warmest west side and northern california valleys, while east
side areas push into the mid 80s.

One thing of note: ECMWF shows the upper trough strengthening as it
moves inland Wednesday night into Thursday morning and cracks out
some QPF over portions of our area. The GFS shows weak energy
moving into the area with QPF Wednesday night. Instability is
marginal and mid level moisture is lacking, therefore not as
confident we'll get anything from this other than a mid level
cloud deck.

Slight cooling is expected Thursday and Friday with a weak west to
northwest flow and light to moderate onshore flow, then we'll heat
up again Saturday as ridging builds over the area. This won't last
long as an upper trough approaches the area Sunday with increasing
onshore flow. -petrucelli

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Ca... None.

Pacific coastal waters...

- small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 5 pm pdt Monday for
pzz350-356-370-376.

Btl msm map


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 0 mi44 min S 15 G 17 53°F 52°F1015.1 hPa
46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA 13 mi84 min SE 9.7 G 12 50°F 47°F6 ft1014.6 hPa (+2.0)
46244 - Humboldt Bay, North Spit, CA 60 mi44 min 52°F6 ft

Wind History for Crescent City, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Crescent City, Jack McNamara Field Airport, CA4 mi79 minS 139.00 miOvercast53°F51°F93%1015.4 hPa
Brookings, Brookings Airport, OR23 mi79 minSE 55.00 miFog/Mist53°F52°F96%1016.9 hPa

Wind History from CEC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN8
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2 days agoS5S5CalmE3CalmCalmCalmN5N8N16
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Tide / Current Tables for Crescent City, California
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Crescent City
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:28 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:15 AM PDT     6.80 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:41 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:12 AM PDT     -1.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:20 AM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:02 PM PDT     6.25 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:54 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:41 PM PDT     2.35 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.15.36.36.86.65.74.22.40.7-0.6-1.1-0.90.11.63.34.85.96.265.24.13.12.52.4

Tide / Current Tables for Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon
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Brookings
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:29 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:16 AM PDT     6.80 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:40 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:16 AM PDT     -1.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:20 AM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:03 PM PDT     6.25 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:55 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:45 PM PDT     2.35 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.15.26.26.86.65.74.32.50.8-0.5-1.1-0.901.53.34.85.96.265.24.13.22.52.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.