Thursday, April19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bertsch-Oceanview, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:28AMSunset 8:02PM Thursday April 19, 2018 2:42 AM PDT (09:42 UTC) Moonrise 8:21AMMoonset 11:20PM Illumination 16% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ330 1126 Pm Pdt Fri Aug 9 2013
.thunderstorms over the waters... Thunderstorms over the waters have weakened but isolated storms will continue overnight. Mariners can expect gusty and erratic winds with the storms along with frequent lightning. If caught on the open water stay below deck if possible...keep away from ungrounded metal objects. Lat...lon 4397 12411 4396 12411 4400 12413 4284 12455 4242 12440 4225 12441 4205 12428 4184 12422 4181 12580 4198 12579 4220 12589 4370 12576 4386 12565 4399 12562 4403 12414
PZZ300 213 Am Pdt Thu Apr 19 2018
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..High pressure will build in throughout the day. North winds and steep seas will create hazardous conditions for small craft south of port orford this afternoon. Winds and seas should subside as a weak front approaches Friday, then dissipates near the coast late Friday night. A thermal trough will develop this weekend. This will bring strong north winds, likely gale force, to areas south of cape blanco, while areas farther north will have winds and seas hazardous to small craft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bertsch-Oceanview, CA
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location: 41.75, -124.18     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 190353
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
853 pm pdt Wed apr 18 2018

Discussion The showers have begun to dissipate over the coastal
range, but radar still shows plenty of shower activity across the
cascades and in siskiyou county. These showers are not moving very
quickly, but they also aren't dumping a lot of rain. Overall, the
threat of thunder has decreased. The showers will continue
overnight, but become more concentrated along the cascades and
east before an area of high pressure moves in over the area. Have
not made any additional changes to the forecast, and you can read
the previous discussion in its entirety below.

Marine Updated 800 pm pdt Wednesday 18 april 2018... High
pressure will build into the area tonight into Thursday. Northerly
winds will increase to small craft advisory levels in the
southern waters Thursday afternoon resulting in steep, short
period seas fairly close to shore south of port orford. Winds and
seas should subside as a weak front approaches the waters Friday,
then dissipates near the coast late Friday night. A thermal trough
will develop this weekend. This will bring strong north winds,
likely gale force, to areas south of CAPE blanco, while areas
farther north have winds and seas hazardous to small craft. -fb

Prev discussion issued 558 pm pdt Wed apr 18 2018
update... The scattered showers will continue for the next few
hours, and we've seen a few strikes near the border of douglas and
coos counties in the coastal range. Have also seen a few cloud
flashes in eastern coos county. Have added a slight chance of
thunderstorms to the forecast for the coastal range. The threat
for thunder will largely dissipate shortly after sunset. -schaaf
discussion... 18 12z nam GFS ec in.

The northern hemispheric map looks very spring-ish. There is a
five wave progressive pattern around the globe with the jet stream
mostly north of 40n, though it dips a bit below in several
locations.

Closer to the pacific northwest, there are two events in the near
term. A trough is now digging off the coast, and it will shear
later today. The cutoff low will then dive into northern
california tonight, then move off to the east Thursday.

Ahead of the trough, there is a difluent area aloft that is
currently over the medford CWA with an embedded short wave moving
through. This is supporting shower activity over the area. More
short waves will follow, so expect this activity to continue
through today. Analysis of model soundings indicate that none of
the showers will develop into thunderstorms. It will be cool with
inland high temperatures 5-15 degrees below normal.

Tonight, the wraparound moisture associated with the cutoff low
will move into the area. This will affect areas from the cascades
east for the most part. These showers will gradually move off to
the east Thursday with the cutoff low. Inland temperatures will
warm up quite a bit, with the highs just a bit below normal over
the west side and about 5 degrees below normal east of the
cascades.

Once that system moves out, upper level ridging with dry northerly
flow will bring mostly dry conditions to the area Thursday night
into Friday. A thermal trough will form near the coast and marine
north winds will increase offshore and along the coast. The ridge
will break to the east Friday and flow aloft will turn southwesterly.

The thermal trough will break down and move inland as this
occurs. That will make Friday the warmest day in the near term
west of the cascades. Highs will be near normal along the coast
and over the umpqua basin, and 5 to 10 degrees above normal over
the rest of the area.

The next system to affect the area will move onshore Friday
night in the form of a short wave with most of the energy directed
into washington state and northern oregon. The medford CWA will
catch the southern end of the associated surface front, and this
will bring the possibility of some light rain to the coast, coast
range, and umpqua basin Friday night into Saturday. Amounts will
be quite light. The thermal trough will be forced to the east side
Saturday, making that the warmest day in the near term over there.

Compared to the Friday highs, it will be a few degrees cooler over
the west side and a few degrees warmer east of the cascades.

Long term discussion... 5 am pdt Sunday 22 apr through Wednesday 25
apr. Both models are showing a short wave moving through the
region during Sunday morning. However, the airmass will be rather
dry and we're not expecting any precipitation out of this short
wave. So a very spring like day can be expected with lots of
cumulus clouds and highs in the upper 60s.

This ridge pattern will continue for the next few days. According
to our anomalies tables, there isn't much that is unusual for the
upcoming week ahead. Maybe a bit warmer than average with highs in
the upper 60s and perhaps lower 70s at times. We are forecasting
a high of 80 on Wednesday with the thermal trough kicking into
full gear.

Eventually the GFS is expecting a low to approach our coast during
Tuesday night into Wednesday. The ECMWF on the other hand wants to
keep things dry, so the extended models are not agreeing on the
chance for some thunderstorms during Tuesday evening next week. We
personally felt that the ECMWF was not handling the low approaching
our coast correctly. Over the last week, the pattern has been very
active and short waves have been moving through fairly easily.

Therefore, sided with a more gfs-based forecast for precipitation
potential Tuesday into Wednesday.

Aviation... 19 00z TAF cycle... Low pressure will bring showers to
the area through this evening, mainly over the mountains. Overall,
expectVFR to prevail, though local MVFR and partial terrain
obscuration can be expected, especially in any of the heavier
showers. Expect areas of MVFR and local ifr to develop in the west
side valleys and perhaps along the coast toward morning. Conditions
will gradually improve toVFR by late Thursday morning with gusty
northwest winds developing east of the cascades. Breezy north winds
are expected and could be as high as 15-20 knot in the klamath basin
and lmt. -fb

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Ca... None.

Pacific coastal waters... Small craft advisory from 1 pm to 11 pm pdt Thursday for
pzz356-376.

Bms fjb jrs


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 0 mi42 min NNE 2.9 G 7 45°F 52°F1019.5 hPa
46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA 13 mi112 min E 3.9 G 5.8 51°F 53°F5 ft1019.3 hPa (+0.7)
46244 - Humboldt Bay, North Spit, CA 60 mi42 min 52°F6 ft

Wind History for Crescent City, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Crescent City, Jack McNamara Field Airport, CA4 mi1.8 hrsE 310.00 miFair44°F37°F76%1019.9 hPa
Brookings, Brookings Airport, OR23 mi46 minN 010.00 miFair42°F39°F89%1021.8 hPa

Wind History from CEC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4E4E4E5E5E4Calm3NW5NW8NW9NW10NW10NW11N10N10N11N8N9CalmE4E5E3Calm
1 day agoSE4E6E5E4E5E5E4S7S7SW8SW84NW6NW6NW5NW5NW4NW3CalmCalmCalmE4E4E3
2 days agoSE9SE13S11SE6E3E4SE7S8S11S12S8SW7W9NW8NW9NW10NW8W6N5CalmSE3CalmCalmE5

Tide / Current Tables for Crescent City, California
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Crescent City
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Thu -- 02:04 AM PDT     7.25 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:30 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:57 AM PDT     -0.93 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:21 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:31 PM PDT     5.64 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:02 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:48 PM PDT     2.31 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.86.87.26.95.84.12.30.6-0.5-0.9-0.50.62.13.64.95.55.654.13.22.52.32.73.6

Tide / Current Tables for Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon
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Brookings
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:04 AM PDT     7.25 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:30 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:01 AM PDT     -0.93 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:20 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:32 PM PDT     5.64 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:03 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:52 PM PDT     2.31 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.76.87.26.95.84.22.40.7-0.5-0.9-0.50.523.64.85.55.654.23.22.52.32.73.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.