Thursday, February22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bertsch-Oceanview, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 6:01PM Thursday February 22, 2018 2:51 PM PST (22:51 UTC) Moonrise 10:57AMMoonset 12:13AM Illumination 52% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ330 1126 Pm Pdt Fri Aug 9 2013
.thunderstorms over the waters... Thunderstorms over the waters have weakened but isolated storms will continue overnight. Mariners can expect gusty and erratic winds with the storms along with frequent lightning. If caught on the open water stay below deck if possible...keep away from ungrounded metal objects. Lat...lon 4397 12411 4396 12411 4400 12413 4284 12455 4242 12440 4225 12441 4205 12428 4184 12422 4181 12580 4198 12579 4220 12589 4370 12576 4386 12565 4399 12562 4403 12414
PZZ300 207 Pm Pst Thu Feb 22 2018
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..A low is moving southward along the coast, causing increasing north winds over the waters in its wake... Seas will remain steep through this evening and diminish slightly into Friday. High pressure will build over the region Friday resulting in lighter winds and calmer sea conditions that will last into Saturday. A front will move onshore Sunday, and it will bring high and steep northwest swell with it. Even heavier swell will move in Monday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bertsch-Oceanview, CA
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location: 41.75, -124.18     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 221647
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
847 am pst Thu feb 22 2018

Update Continuing to monitor numerous showers moving northwest
to southeast across the area. These showers will slowly dissipate
from north to south through the day, although west facing slopes
could see showers linger a while longer as upslope flow persists
through the afternoon. Current traffic camera images show
significant backups along interstate 5 at all passes, and many
area roads remain covered and slick. Will continue the winter
weather headlines, and cancel as needed once showers come to an
end.

Skies are expected to clear tonight, and if enough snow survives
the daylight hours, temperatures will quickly drop this evening.

There is a significant risk for ice reforming on the roads,
posing a hazard for any travel through tomorrow morning. Keep an
eye on the road conditions, plan travel accordingly, and if you
must drive, use extra caution both today and tomorrow.

Will be putting major effort into the forecast for this weekend
and early next week as the next two systems arrive, both with a
chance to produce more rounds of low elevation snow. Watch for
possible updates throughout today.

For more information, see the previous discussion below. -bpn

Aviation 22 12z TAF cycle... Mostly ifr conditions have set in
due to widespread snow, save for the coast. On and off snow with
periods of heavier snow and lower vsbys CIGS will continue through
sunrise, then most snow will taper off through the afternoon and
conditions will improve. Expect widespread terrain obscuration,
and periods of lifr conditions in heavier showers.

Marine Updated 800 am pst Thursday 22 feb 2018... A low is moving
southward along the coast, causing increasing north winds over
the waters in its wake... Which could bring gusts to near gale
force this morning, with steep waves. High pressure will build
over the region Friday resulting in lighter winds and calmer sea
conditions that will last into Saturday. A front will move onshore
Sunday, and it will bring high and steep northwest swell with it.

Even heavier swell will move in Monday.

Prev discussion issued 529 am pst Thu feb 22 2018
short term... Focus this morning has been on a developing winter
storm over our area. As expected, snow spread into our area from
the north this morning. Webcams show that roseburg is already
snow-covered, and it is now snowing heavily in the i-5 passes
from there south to grants pass. Given radar and satellite trends
as well as upstream observations, the winter weather advisory was
upgraded to a winter storm warning for west side locations above
1500 feet. We'll probably see at least 3-6 inches in these
locations. We're still expecting 1-3 inches in the valleys, so the
winter weather advisories remain in effect for valley locations.

We also issued a winter weather advisory for the cascades and
siskiyous, including i-5 at siskiyou summit. Snowfall won't be
excessive by their standards, but it is very cold up there, and
snow will make for difficult travel conditions much of today.

A big difference with this storm compared to previous storms is
that the ambient environment is much colder, and this will allow
snow to stick much more easily, as we've already seen up north. It
has even snowed down to the beaches occasionally already, and
we'll likely see some accumulations at elevations down to 100 or
200 feet.

Radar continues to fill in over the rogue and illinois valleys,
and we expect to see snow increase in these areas through dawn.

The morning commute will be a slippery one for much of the west
side. Snow will diminish to flurries by late morning. No changes
were made beyond today, and much of the previous discussion
follows for reference. -wright
previous short term issued 412 pm pst Wed feb 21 2018: snow
showers will taper off Thursday evening with some clearing
expected Thursday night into Friday morning. With new snow on the
ground and a cold air mass overhead, temperatures could make a
significant plunge by sunrise on Friday morning. However, if cloud
cover continues, as has occurred with the past several events, it
will be more difficult for temperatures to drop significantly.

Current thinking is that clouds will clear enough to allow for
good radiational cooling, and this should produce below freezing
lows all the way down to the coast, with single digits across the
east side, and low 20s to teens possible in the west side valleys.

Have issued a freeze watch for the coastal areas, but any early
season plant growth in the area is under the threat of freeze
damage if the proper precautions are not taken.

After a brief break Friday, the next trough arrives Friday night
into Saturday. This wave appears weaker and slightly warmer than
the previous ones, so snow levels will be slightly higher, and
precipitation amounts should stay on the lower side. The wave
will pass by Saturday afternoon, but moist onshore flow should
keep showers ongoing into the extended period. -bpn
long term... Sun, feb 25th through thu, mar 1st... And beyond...

this long term period of the forecast will begin with a trough of
low pressure centered over the rockies and high pressure extending
from just east of the hawaiian islands north-northwestward to the
bering sea. This will continue to result in a northwest flow storm
track across the forecast area. By the end of the period, gefs
500mb geopotential height anomalies suggest the low pressure
troughing is likely to retrograde westward. This puts the trough
axis just inland from the west coast, west of the cascades.

Although the ridge over the pacific is not expected to move much,
the net effect of the change in the overall pattern during this
time period is likely to allow for the weather systems moving in
to pick up more moisture off of the pacific before they move
inland. Since temperatures are very likely to remain on the colder
side of late february normals, we expect to continue to see our
snowpack grow, likely faster than it has recently.

More specifically, on Sunday the 25th through Monday the 26th, a
major shortwave trough is expected to move through, with water
amounts mostly in the 0.50" to 1.25" range from the oregon cascades
and marble mountains of california westward. Snow levels are
expected to begin around 3500 feet, falling to the 1500 to 2000
foot range as precipitation tapers off. Notably, the higher snow
levels than we've seen lately also mean that the atmosphere will
be able to hold more water, so mountain snowfall is likely to be
more significant during this time period. Preliminary amounts for
this frontal system appear to be 5 to 10 inches above 4kft, with
10 to 15 inches possible above 6kft.

Tuesday and Wednesday look to be a relative break in the
precipitation action. However, due to timing differences in the
models and a cold air mass lingering over the forecast area, some
light rain and snow showers will still be possible, especially
along and near northwest facing slopes in the afternoon hours.

The next major shortwave trough in the northwest flow is expected
to arrive on Thursday, with snow levels around 2.5kft. With the
upper level trough likely to have reoriented along or near the
west coast, we'll probably see a little more southwest flow
enhancement to the precipitation with that one. Thus, it appears
march is most likely to come in lion-like.

Overall, long range guidance is indicating march will, most
likely, be colder than normal with above average precipitation
for our forecast area. For early march, the latest GEFS mean and
cfsv2 indicate that the pressure pattern is likely to shift
westward enough to bring in more southwest flow weather systems
during the first week of the month as low pressure gears up in the
gulf of alaska. Currently, it appears this will be followed by a
shift to west flow track weather systems for the 2nd week of the
month. Btl

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... Winter weather advisory until 1 pm pst this afternoon for
orz027-028.

Freeze watch from this evening through Friday morning for
orz021-022.

Winter weather advisory until 1 pm pst this afternoon for
orz021-022.

Winter storm warning until 1 pm pst this afternoon above 1500
feet in the for orz021>026.

Winter weather advisory until 1 pm pst this afternoon for
orz023>026.

Ca... Winter weather advisory until 1 pm pst this afternoon for
caz080-081.

Pacific coastal waters... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 10 am pst Friday
for pzz350-356-370.

Hazardous seas warning until 10 am pst Friday for
pzz350-356-370-376.

Bpn trw msc czs btl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 0 mi52 min NNW 16 G 21 45°F 48°F1023.1 hPa (+0.3)
46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA 13 mi62 min N 25 G 29 45°F 49°F12 ft1023.4 hPa (+1.3)
46244 - Humboldt Bay, North Spit, CA 60 mi52 min 50°F14 ft

Wind History for Crescent City, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Crescent City, Jack McNamara Field Airport, CA4 mi56 minNNW 18 G 2610.00 miFair and Breezy49°F36°F61%1024 hPa
Brookings, Brookings Airport, OR23 mi56 minNNW 7 G 1510.00 miLight Rain44°F32°F63%1025.2 hPa

Wind History from CEC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN11NW11N13NW16
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N9CalmSE3CalmS4SE5SE5S6Calm5NW16
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1 day agoS13S13S11S11S9SE7E3NE5S11NE4E4E5E5E3CalmE6NE5E6E4CalmCalmN4N5N7
2 days agoN12
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N9NE6NE6NE6NE5NE3E7E4E6E3NE6E4E5E5E6SE5S10S9S11S9

Tide / Current Tables for Crescent City, California
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Crescent City
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:13 AM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:41 AM PST     6.91 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:02 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:35 AM PST     1.21 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:57 AM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:46 PM PST     4.97 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:58 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 10:04 PM PST     2.61 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.95.16.16.86.96.45.44.22.91.91.31.31.72.53.54.34.854.74.13.42.82.62.8

Tide / Current Tables for Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon
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Brookings
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:14 AM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:42 AM PST     6.91 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:02 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:39 AM PST     1.21 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:57 AM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:47 PM PST     4.97 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:58 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 10:08 PM PST     2.61 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.856.16.86.96.45.54.231.91.31.21.72.53.44.34.854.74.13.42.92.62.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.