Friday, July28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bertsch-Oceanview, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:08AMSunset 8:37PM Friday July 28, 2017 6:04 AM PDT (13:04 UTC) Moonrise 10:58AMMoonset 10:57PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ330 1126 Pm Pdt Fri Aug 9 2013
.thunderstorms over the waters... Thunderstorms over the waters have weakened but isolated storms will continue overnight. Mariners can expect gusty and erratic winds with the storms along with frequent lightning. If caught on the open water stay below deck if possible...keep away from ungrounded metal objects. Lat...lon 4397 12411 4396 12411 4400 12413 4284 12455 4242 12440 4225 12441 4205 12428 4184 12422 4181 12580 4198 12579 4220 12589 4370 12576 4386 12565 4399 12562 4403 12414
PZZ300 259 Am Pdt Fri Jul 28 2017
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..A thermal trough in northern california will remain in place into next week with north winds and steep to very steep seas. Small craft advisory conditions will persist south of cape blanco this morning, then expand north from about bandon south this afternoon into Sunday evening. The thermal trough will strengthen this afternoon into Sunday evening with gales beyond about 5 nm from shore and south of gold beach. Gales will expand north mainly south of port orford Sunday night through Monday evening and small craft will also expand north mainly south of coos bay.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bertsch-Oceanview, CA
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location: 41.75, -124.18     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 281022
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
322 am pdt Fri jul 28 2017

Short term Very hot conditions will develop across inland
areas late this weekend into early next week. Today, a weak
shortwave will lift northeast and the upper level ridge will
strengthen over the western u.S tonight into early next week. High
temperatures are expected to reach 100 for some western valleys
on Sunday then increase further early next week with very hot
temperatures developing. Models also continue to show very weak
impulses moving into the area, which combined with some mid level
moisture and instability may bring a slight risk for thunderstorms
to eastern modoc and southeast lake counties Saturday and Sunday.

Overall, this risk is only slight due to limited moisture and
forcing.

The building ridge will bring a warmer airmass and hot
temperatures to inland valleys this weekend. Highs are expected to
warm into the 90s to near 100 for many western valleys by Sunday
with highs in the lower to mid 90s across eastern valleys.

Meanwhile along the coast, a surface thermal trough will
strengthen and result in stronger east to northeast winds. This
will bring warming conditions to the coast, especially in the
brookigns area where a moderate chetco effect is expected.

Looking into early next week, the main concern is with the
potential for excessive heat across several inland valleys,
including the rogue, illinois and applegate valleys and the
shasta, scott and klamath river valleys in northern california.

Models currently support afternoon temperatures rising into the
lower to mid 100s across these western valleys. Additionally,
overnight low temperatures are expected to be warmer than normal
with lows near 70 Monday night and Tuesday night. This will result
in only a brief period of relatively cooler temperatures in the
overnight hours. High temperatures east of the cascades will also
rise early next week, reaching the upper 90s by Tuesday. Very hot
temperatures are expected to continue into Wednesday, then
conditions will gradually become less hot late next week as an
upper trough approaches the pacific northwest coast.

Aviation 28 06z TAF cycle... At the coast and just offshore. Ifr
and local lifr CIGS will persist for most of the morning. The
exception will be from CAPE blanco to gold beach whereVFR CIGS are
expected. However this will have to be watched closely. Some
improvement is possible this afternoon as the marine stratus peels
back just off the coast withVFR cigs, but confidence on the timing
is low to medium. The TAF at north bend shows improving conditions
around 19z, but this could change, so watch for updates on this.

Marine stratus will likely return to the coast this evening with ifr
and local lifr cigs.

Inland. The latest fog image shows marine stratus in the coquille
basin and river valleys in curry county. This should burn off by
late this morning with clear skies for the afternoon. The marine
stratus will get close to roseburg, but it should remainVFR through
the TAF period. Elsewhere... VFR will persist overnight into Friday
across all inland areas, with the exception of in the vicinity of
wildfires, where smoke may occasionally restrict visibility to less
than a mile at times. -petrucelli

Marine Updated 230 am pdt Friday 28 july 2017... A thermal
trough in northern california will remain in place into next week
with north winds and steep to very steep seas. Small craft advisory
conditions will persist south of CAPE blanco this morning. The
thermal trough will strengthen this afternoon through early next
week with gales beyond about 5 nm from shore and south of gold
beach. Meanwhile small craft conditions will affect areas from
bandon south through Sunday evening. The models suggest gales and
small craft conditions could expand in coverage Sunday night through
Monday evening and decided to expand the coverage of gales and small
craft conditions. Please see mwwmfr for more details. -petrucelli

Fire weather Updated 300 am Friday 28 july, 2017... Dry and hot
weather away from the immediate coast will prevail through most of
next week. A weak upper trough will approach the area from the
southwest this afternoon. Models show south winds near 700mb
increasing between 15-20 kts and is likely to mix down near the
surface. Relative humidities will be low, but right now we don't
think winds will be strong enough to warrant red flag conditions for
fire zones 624, 625, 284 and 285, but this will need to be watched
carefully. Instability will be marginal at best this afternoon, but
mid level moisture is lacking, so were not expecting much more than
a few cumulus build ups along the cascades and east side this
afternoon and evening. Also the thermal trough will remain along the
coast resulting in breezy east to northeast winds near and at the
ridges in portions of fire zones 618, 619 and 280 tonight into
Saturday morning along with moderate recoveries. Latest data still
does not support conditions reaching critical criteria, so we'll
continue to headline in the fire weather forecast.

The overall pattern is not expected to change much for all of next
week. However the models differ with the position ofthe upper ridge.

For example the GFS has the ridge positioned over the four corners
and we'll be on the outer fringe of the ridge. Typically in this
type of situation we could be dealing with isolated thunderstorms.

Taking the GFS at face value would put southeastern lake at risk for
thunderstorms. Given the high fire danger in these areas, decided to
err on the side of caution and keep a slight chance of storms in
southeast fire zone 625 Saturday and Sunday afternoons.

In contrast, the ECMWF has the ridge positioned right over our area
which will keep thunderstorm chances pretty much next to zero with
even hotter temperatures.

Relative humidities will be low during the afternoons, but models
are not showing particularly strong winds near and at 700 and even
the 700-500 mb winds are not strong. Also the pressure gradients are
not strong, therefore surface winds will not be strong enough to
warrant red flag concerns. -petrucelli

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Ca... None.

Pacific coastal waters... Small craft advisory until 11 pm pdt Monday for pzz356-376.

Gale warning from 11 am this morning to 11 pm pdt Monday for
pzz356-376.

Small craft advisory from 11 am this morning to 11 pm pdt Monday
for pzz350-370.

Cc


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 0 mi52 min W 4.1 G 6 54°F 60°F1017.3 hPa
46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA 13 mi74 min SW 1.9 G 3.9 54°F 55°F5 ft1016.4 hPa (-0.6)
46244 - Humboldt Bay, North Spit, CA 60 mi43 min 53°F7 ft

Wind History for Crescent City, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Crescent City, Jack McNamara Field Airport, CA4 mi68 minWSW 55.00 miFog/Mist53°F53°F100%1017.4 hPa
Brookings, Brookings Airport, OR23 mi68 minN 00.50 miLight Rain Fog53°F53°F100%1018.6 hPa

Wind History from CEC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW3CalmSW3SW4SW3SW54W655NW9NW10NW10NW10NW8CalmS13S14
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1 day agoCalmS3S6SE6S5SW66S7SW5S8S6N4NW834S9S11S11S9S8SE4S4SW5SW4
2 days agoSE3S6S8S7W4S6S9S9S9S9S8S7S5S5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3S3CalmCalmS3

Tide / Current Tables for Crescent City, California
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Crescent City
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:37 AM PDT     6.02 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:07 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:59 AM PDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:58 AM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:36 PM PDT     6.53 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:38 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:50 PM PDT     1.76 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:57 PM PDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.14.25.25.965.44.331.70.80.50.81.73.14.55.76.46.55.94.93.72.721.8

Tide / Current Tables for Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon
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Brookings
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:38 AM PDT     6.02 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:06 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:03 AM PDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:59 AM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:37 PM PDT     6.53 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:39 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:54 PM PDT     1.76 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:57 PM PDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
34.25.25.965.44.43.11.80.80.50.81.734.55.76.46.5653.82.721.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.