Wednesday, February21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
East Dennis, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:25AMSunset 5:23PM Wednesday February 21, 2018 7:53 PM EST (00:53 UTC) Moonrise 10:39AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 42% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
ANZ231 Cape Cod Bay- 716 Pm Est Wed Feb 21 2018
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N after midnight. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Areas of fog this evening. Isolated showers this evening with vsby 1 nm or less.
Thu..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the morning. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain.
Thu night..NE winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Rain likely with a chance of snow.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. Rain.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Rain likely.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Rain likely.
Sun..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain likely.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Pm Est Wed Feb 21 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A cold front will cross the waters this evening. Strong high pressure builds to the north Thursday as a wave of low pres tracks to the south bringing rain. The high pressure moves east of nova scotia Friday with a series of frontal system sweeping the waters through the weekend. A more quiet pattern into the following week. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near East Dennis, MA
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 41.75, -70.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kbox 220023
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
723 pm est Wed feb 21 2018

Synopsis
A cold front moves through southern new england early tonight.

Much colder weather then moves in for Thursday. The front stalls
south of new england Thursday, an area of unsettled weather
moves along the front and across southern new england. This will
bring a mix of precipitation, with snow and sleet north of the
mass pike while rain and sleet falls to the south. An active
wet weather pattern Friday through the weekend during which
there is the possibility of mixed precipitation, freezing rain
late Friday into Friday night and again around Saturday night
into Sunday. Dry weather will follow.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
Dense fog is beginning to scour out across the south coast per
observations and area webcams. Thus will let the dense fog
advisory expire.

Otherwise, cold front is quickly swinging into the region as it
currently from lwm to bdl. Once the front moves through,
southwest winds will quickly switch to the northwest and gusts
between 25-35 mph. Anticipate these gusts to continue for an
hour or two until the pressure gradient relaxes. Temperatures
behind the front are also dropping with locations across the
berkshires already into the 50s and the ct valley not to far
behind them. Thus temperatures will fall through the night as
caa continues to take hold of the region.

Lastly, while moisture is a bit meager along this front, still
cannot rule out a few isolated showers across the interior.

However, closer to the south coast, good line of showers with
some thunder moving across nh and into the lower hudson valley
of ny. Expect these showers to continue to develop along or
ahead of the front into southern ct and potentially southern ri
and the islands. Thus have put in sct showers into the
forecast. This front will stall just south of the region which
could result in periods of showers for the immediate south
coast, CAPE and islands through the night.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through Thursday night
730 pm update...

latest trends in the guidance suggested a cooler scenario for
Thursday event. Thus went ahead and updated the forecast to
reflect these trends. Quick moving wave will ride along the
stalled front south of the region, and with CAA continue to push
through, expect more of an isothermal transfer of temperatures
within the profile. Thus mid and low level temperatures will
cool leading to more of a snow sleet profile than rain as shown
in bufkit model soundings. Still have to watch for a warm layer
around 800mb, but feel that precip will fall hard enough that
the profile should maintain frozen precip (snow sleet).

All said in done, north of the pike may see some sleet but will
transition to all snow by the afternoon. Could see around 1-3
inches on elevated surface. Snow will struggle to stick on area
roadways as they are quite warm thanks to the 70+ degree day
today. Along and south of the pike expect more of a mixed bag of
precip leading to rain to sleet to snow to a low chc of freezing
rain. Lastly along the south coast, could see rain at first, but
if precip falls hard enough then could transition to sleet with
the potential for some freezing rain.

Overall confidence is higher with snow and sleet outcome than
with any freezing rain. But if there is a chc for fzra than
winter weather advisories may be needed as it only takes a t.

Previous discussion...

the cold front stalls over the mid atlantic coast and south of
new england Thursday. High pressure from the plains then moves
to the great lakes Thursday, maintaining the colder temps over
our area and setting up a cool northeast flow off the gulf of
maine. The right entrance region of the upper jet will be in
position just as this colder air pushes south.

All of this will provide sufficient lift to generate an area of
precipitation that moves up from the ohio valley. The challange
with this forecast is determining precip type. No cold air
damming signal in the data. There is just the infiltration of
cold air with the high pressure and the northeast wind off the
marine environment. We are maintaining snow and sleet north of
the mass pike and rain south of the pike and along the eastern
coast.

Accumulations will be light, with the best chance of minor
accumulations across the higher elevations of northern mass.

Confidence in precipitation is moderate-high, but confidence in
precip type is low-moderate. As noted on the previous forecast,
a warmer solution would mean more rain and less snow sleet.

Thursday night...

the precipitation moves offshore, and high pressure builds over
northern new england. The high center moves to the maritimes by
12z Friday with a cold air ridge extending southwest through new
england. Low level moisture lingers over southern new england,
which should keep clouds south of the mass pike overnight.

Northern mass could have partial clearing for a few hours.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
Highlights...

* burst of precip with wintry mix in the interior Fri night
* dry but warm as spring returns on Saturday
* widespread precip on Sunday with wintry mix in the interior
* dry weather trend for early next week
overview...

12z guidance is in general agreement with the extended forecast.

Just some minor differences related to thermals which provide
different outcomes in p-type. Deep trough across the western conus
with ridging over the eastern seaboard. This puts the region in
southwest flow allowing for gulf moisture to stream into the area.

Ridge will begin to flatten out as subtropical high begins to
retreat back west towards the gulf of mexico by the end of the
period. A few waves of low pressure will move through the flow with
the first one Friday night followed by one on Sunday. Thereafter
pattern begins to breakdown as ridge moves over the great lakes
region and cut-off low begins to set-up over the maritimes. This
could result in a return to average to below avg temps mid to late
next week.

Details...

Friday into Saturday... Moderate confidence.

Retreating high pressure as baroclinic zone remains south of the
region. Dry weather to start but with front near by an approaching
waa anticipate showers to develop and expand by the late afternoon
hours. Thermals will be tricking as WAA moves through bringing in a
good warm nose per bufkit soundings. Biggest question is the surface
temps and if they will warm above freezing as high pressure is
retreating resulting in more of a easterly flow rather than the
classic northerly cold air damming. The GFS appears the warmest of
the guidance in terms of 2m temps keeping p-types as mainly rain.

This does appear to be an outlier compared to the NAM ec and cmc.

While hi-res data would give this forecast more confidence, appears
that the trend is increasing in a period of freezing rain during the
evening commute, ESP in NW interior ma.

Precip will come to an end by the overnight hours as another front
pushes into the region an stalls just south of the area. With this
front near by, a few showers are possible early Saturday morning,
but strong high and ridging overhead will help result in a dry
forecast.

Despite westerly to northwest flow, surface temps could potentially
warm into the low to mid 50s by the afternoon. However, depending on
where frontal system stalls, temps could actually rise or fall. Thus
a low confidence forecast for temps on Saturday.

Saturday night into Sunday... Increasing confidence.

Last wave will eject out of the desert southwest producing surface
low pressure system up into the northern great lakes. Another shot of
overrunning precip as warm front approaches from the south. Again
depending on thermals, we could see a chc for freezing rain at the
onset. This system looks to bring the most QPF out of all the system
so expect widespread precip, ESP as we continue to tap into that
gulf moisture. One thing to watch is the development of a surface
low along the front. This could help drag in more cold air from the
north leading to a changeover from rain to sleet snow on Sunday.

Still some uncertainty with this forecast because of the thermals
in question. But cannot rule out wintry precip during this period.

The front will quickly push through resulting in a drying trend for
late Sunday night.

Monday and beyond... Moderate confidence.

High pressure will build across the region Monday and last into
early next week. Temperatures will be seasonable to slightly above
average as the pattern begins to shift.

Aviation 00z Thursday through Monday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday night ... Moderate confidence.

Tonight...

ifr fog lingers over CAPE cod and islands in the evening, but should
lift by 03z. Cold front is pushing through the region switching
sw winds to a NW direction. Behind the front winds will quickly
pick up around 20-30 kts, but should only last an hour or two.

Vfr conditions remainder of southern new england.

Thursday...

vfr in the morning. Winds turn from the northeast. Clouds lower
and thicken as an area of precipitation moves in from the west.

Afternoon CIGS vsbys lower to MVFR in snow sleet north and
light rain south. -sn accumulation possible north of the mass
pike. Potential for -pl ra south of the pike. Low confidence in
-fzra.

Thursday night...

rain sleet snow moves offshore along with the low clouds. Most
of the night should beVFR with continued northeast winds.

Kbos terminal... High confidence taf.VFR through Thursday
morning. CIGS vsbys lower to MVFR in the afternoon with pl and
sn.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf. CIGS vsbys lower to
MVFR in the afternoon in rain, possible mixing with sleet.

Outlook Friday through Monday ... Moderate confidence.

Friday: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Ra, slight chance
fzra across interior NW ma.

Friday night: MVFR ifr conditions possible. Chance ra, chance
fzra across interior NW ma..

Saturday:VFR.

Saturday night: mainly MVFR, with areasVFR possible. Breezy.

Ra.

Sunday: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Windy with local
gusts to 30 kt. Ra.

Sunday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.

Chance ra.

Monday:VFR. Breezy.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday night ... Moderate confidence.

Tonight...

fog is slowly shifting east. This will bring improving vsbys
over the waters this evening and early tonight.

Cold front moves across the waters early tonight, then
stalls south of the waters. Southwest winds shift from the
northwest and then north overnight. Winds gusting near 25 kt
this evening, then 20 knots or less after the front moves
through. Seas at 5 feet will subside overnight. Small craft
advisory for wind and rough seas on most waters this evening and
on the outer waters through midnight.

Thursday...

winds turn from north and then northeast with gusts to 20 knots
at times. Seas mostly below 5 feet, except near 5 feet on the
outer edge of the outer waters. Rain moves in from the west
during midday and afternoon. Could be some mixing with sleet
especially along the north shore of mass.

Thursday night...

high pressure centered over canada moves to maine and the
maritimes overnight. Rain moves off to the east. Northeast winds
continue with gusts 20 knots or less. Seas less than 5 feet.

Outlook Friday through Monday ...

Friday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Rain.

Friday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain.

Saturday: winds less than 25 kt.

Saturday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Rain likely.

Sunday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Rain.

Sunday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Chance of rain.

Monday: winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Climate
Daily record high temps have been set at all four climate site.

Records for all-february have been set at hartford and
worcester.

High temperatures through 3 pm...

boston... ..72..Daily record 63 (1906)..Feb record 73 (2 24 2017)
hartford... 74..Daily record 63 (1930)..Feb record 73 (2 24 1985)
providence 64..Daily record 63 (1930)..Feb record 72 (2 24 1985)
worcester..71..Daily record 59 (1930)..Feb record 69 (2 24 2017)

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 9 pm est this evening for anz235-
237.

Small craft advisory until 1 am est Thursday for anz250-
254>256.

Synopsis... Wtb dunten
near term... Wtb dunten
short term... Wtb dunten
long term... Dunten
aviation... Wtb dunten
marine... Wtb dunten
climate... Staff


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44090 11 mi54 min 38°F2 ft
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 22 mi64 min SW 16 G 19 42°F 39°F2 ft1023.6 hPa (+0.4)42°F
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 23 mi69 min 2.9 47°F 1024 hPa47°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 31 mi54 min 43°F 38°F1024.2 hPa (+1.1)
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 32 mi54 min SW 11 G 17 47°F 43°F1024.6 hPa (+0.7)
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 49 mi64 min SSW 12 G 14 52°F 41°F3 ft1020.6 hPa (+2.7)

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
Last
24hr
SW10
G15
SW9
G15
SW10
G16
SW10
G17
SW8
G13
SW8
G16
SW9
G14
SW6
G11
SW8
G15
SW7
G10
SW11
G16
SW10
G21
SW13
G24
SW13
G21
SW9
G21
SW10
G18
SW11
G19
SW9
G16
SW12
G17
SW12
G22
SW9
G21
SW11
G16
SW10
G19
SW11
G17
1 day
ago
S7
G15
S9
G14
S9
G16
SW6
G11
S9
G14
S8
G14
SW7
G13
SW8
G18
SW11
G20
SW10
G19
SW9
G15
SW11
G16
SW11
G20
SW10
G17
SW10
G16
SW10
G18
SW10
G17
SW11
G18
SW11
G17
SW10
G18
SW11
G22
SW10
G18
SW7
G17
SW11
G14
2 days
ago
S3
S2
S1
SW3
SW1
--
S2
S2
S3
S4
G7
S5
G9
S6
G10
S6
G11
S10
G14
S8
G12
S12
G17
S10
G16
S9
G15
S10
G17
S9
G16
S7
G15
S9
G15
SW10
G14
S7
G14

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA8 mi58 minSW 21 G 310.50 miFog and Breezy52°F52°F100%1025.1 hPa
Chatham, Chatham Municipal Airport, MA10 mi62 minSW 11 G 200.75 miFog/Mist45°F45°F100%1023.9 hPa
Provincetown Municipal Airport, MA18 mi58 minSW 16 G 210.75 miLight Rain Fog/Mist43°F43°F100%1022.7 hPa
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA20 mi79 minWSW 100.25 miFog48°F48°F100%1024.4 hPa

Wind History from HYA (wind in knots)
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
Last 24hrW14SW15W18--------------SW15
G24
SW15
G24
SW19
G27
SW19
G27
SW17
G26
SW17
G26
W19
G27
SW15
G23
SW10
G15
SW11
G15
SW11SW12--SW21
G31
1 day agoSW14SW13
G19
SW13------------------SW14
G20
SW14
G20
SW14
G23
SW14
G23
SW14
G23
SW15
G25
SW15
G22
SW15
G25
SW14
G19
W13
G23
W15
G23
W20
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm----S11S11S9SW9
G16
SW13
G18
S13
G21
S12
G18
SW10S11--S7SW10SW13
G20
S13

Tide / Current Tables for Sesuit Harbor, East Dennis, Cape Cod Bay, Massachusetts
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Sesuit Harbor
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:41 AM EST     10.21 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:27 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:55 AM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:39 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:06 PM EST     9.78 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:21 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 09:16 PM EST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:27 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
6.48.59.910.19.17.14.72.40.70135.37.399.89.37.65.43.11.20.20.62.4

Tide / Current Tables for Pollock Rip Channel, Massachusetts Current
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Pollock Rip Channel
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:56 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:35 AM EST     -1.95 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:26 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:41 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 09:38 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:49 AM EST     2.03 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 01:17 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:58 PM EST     -1.90 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:20 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:01 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:12 PM EST     2.02 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 11:26 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.9-0.1-1.1-1.8-1.9-1.4-0.60.31.21.921.81.20.3-0.7-1.6-1.9-1.6-0.9-00.91.721.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (19,4,5,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.