Tuesday, September26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
East Sandwich, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:32AMSunset 6:31PM Tuesday September 26, 2017 4:10 PM EDT (20:10 UTC) Moonrise 12:39PMMoonset 10:37PM Illumination 36% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ231 Cape Cod Bay- 116 Pm Edt Tue Sep 26 2017
This afternoon..SE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight..S winds around 5 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Wed..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Areas of fog. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Areas of fog. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..N winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 116 Pm Edt Tue Sep 26 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Areas of dense fog will impact the waters at times, mainly during the overnight and early to mid morning hours through Thu. Meanwhile, large southerly swell from distant hurricane maria will continue to impact our southern waters through the end of the work week. A cold front from canada will cross the waters on Thu and force maria to pass well southeast of our waters. Large high pres over the great lakes Sat will build across the waters Sun into Mon. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near East Sandwich, MA
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location: 41.75, -70.45     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 261951
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
351 pm edt Tue sep 26 2017

Synopsis
Unseasonably warm and humid conditions will continue through
Wednesday along with areas of overnight and early morning dense fog.

A cold front moves through southern new england Wednesday night and
then offshore during Thursday. Moisture from maria may enhance
shower activity across CAPE cod and the islands as the front moves
through. Much cooler and less humid air behind the front for the end
of the week and weekend. Hurricane maria will continue to bring
dangerous surf and rip current conditions to the ocean exposed south
coast but pass well southeast of new england by week's end.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Mid afternoon update...

most of the low clouds and patchy fog have dissipated as noted
on the 17z observations. However, some low clouds have held on
across portions of CAPE cod and the islands. Also noting some
diurnal clouds developing across the E slopes of the berkshires
as seen on latest goes-16 non-op prelim visible satellite
imagery.

Some bands of showers have pushed NE across the southern outer
waters to the gulf of maine during the midday hours, and see
some spotty showers pushing slowly n, but remaining well S of
eastern long island and block island as seen on NE regional 88d
radar over the last couple of hours. Latest water vapor imagery
signaling most of the better low level moisture, below the high
clouds, is lying well S of the southern outer waters, so should
remain dry except for a few spotty showers that may develop in
the w-sw flow.

Since 1730z, noting a few showers have developed across s
central vt with very little movement. With the diurnal cloud
development across the E slopes of the berkshires, may see a few
spotty showers develop in that region, likely between 21z and
00z. Have slight chance pops going there. Expect mainly dry
conditions elsewhere through the remainder of the afternoon.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Wednesday night
***areas of dense fog likely to redevelop tonight***
tonight...

low clouds and areas of fog, some of which will likely be
locally dense should redevelop tonight. This from a combination
of light winds high dewpoints and longer nights given its late
september. The next shift may need to consider another dense fog
advisory. Low temps again will mainly be in the 60 to 65 degree
range.

Wednesday...

model cross sections indicate that the low clouds and fog may
persist a bit longer than today, especially along the coastal
plain. Nonetheless, do expect to see at least some improvement
along with partial sunshine eventually developing. High temps
should once again rise into the 80s away from the immediate
coast and it will once again be humid. Not much forcing deep
moisture given upper level ridge still in control so generally
expect dry weather to prevail, but can not rule out a spot
shower or two Wednesday afternoon.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
Highlights...

* a period of heavy rain possible Thursday CAPE cod & islands
* much cooler and less humid Thursday night thru this weekend
* scattered showers possible Saturday but not a washout
Thursday...

short wave trough and associated cold front will be moving across
the region thu. Meanwhile moisture from hurricane maria will be
streaming northward with pwats climbing to 2+ inches across CAPE cod
and the islands. These values are +2 to +3 standard deviations above
climo! The combination of this tropical connection, approaching
frontal boundary and attending jet streak are the necessary
ingredients for a pre, predecessor rainfall event. Most of the model
guidance has very heavy rainfall clipping CAPE cod and the islands
thu. However it's a sharp gradient with the NAM storm total 3.5
inches for nantucket, but only 0.60 for the ec and 0.40 of an inch
from the gfs. GFS and ec ensembles both keep core of heaviest
rainfall offshore. This seems plausible given upstream trough is
lacking amplitude to back mid level flow along the sne coast,
increasing duration of a pre. However at this time range (48-54 hrs
out) it would be foolish to be deterministic here given mesoscale
nature of this banded precip. A 50 mile difference could translate
to heavy rain remaining offshore or heavy rain back to the CAPE cod
canal. Thus will keep the forecast more probabilistic with highest
probs of heavy rain offshore. Otherwise Thu will be a big transition
day with a warm and humid start and a much cooler windy finish with
the fropa, with north winds possibly up to 35-40 mph across CAPE cod
and islands.

Friday...

dry and very pleasant with highs in the 60s and dew pts in the 30s.

Setting the stage for a cool night.

The weekend...

very pleasant with mild days and cool chilly nights. Fairly robust
mid level northern stream trough moves thru Sat with -24c air at 500
mb. This combined with cyclonic flow will be sufficient for
scattered diurnal showers. Not a wash out but given -24c air aloft
can't rule out the chance for some small hail with the stronger
shallow updrafts. Could be cooler than forecast Sat as ec and gfs
both indicate an inverted trough developing across the region, which
is indicative of the strong forcing for ascent aloft. This may yield
more widespread clouds, onshore flow and showers possibly more
numerous. This will be followed by a very chilly Sat ngt Sun morning
with lows in the 40s and a few mid to upper 30s possible! Thus
patchy frost possible as well. Thus followed the coldest guidance
here. Dry weather for Sunday.

Early next week...

gradual warming trend as ridging develops between exiting trough sat
and next upstream trough entering the great lakes early next week.

Aviation 20z Tuesday through Sunday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Wednesday night ...

through 00z... Moderate confidence. Conditions mainlyVFR, though
spotty MVFR-ifr low clouds and fog lingers just off the
immediate coast.

Tonight... Moderate confidence. Widespread ifr-lifr conditions
expected to redevelop once again as the night wears on in low
clouds and areas of fog, some of which will be locally dense
again. This a result of a cooling boundary layer coupled with
high dewpoints and light winds.

Wednesday... Moderate confidence. Widespread ifr-lifr conditions
should improve toVFR across most locations by around midday,
though might linger into the afternoon along the S coast and
especially the CAPE and islands. A few showers may develop
across the interior during the afternoon with brief local MVFR
conditions possible.

Wednesday night... Low to moderate confidence.VFR Wed evening,
lowering to MVFR-ifr mainly near and S of the mass pike in
patchy fog and scattered showers, lowest conditions along the s
coast.

Kbos taf... Moderate confidence in taf.VFR conditions through
00z-02z, then lowering to ifr vsbys in patchy fog. Lifr
cigs vsbys developing around or after midnight through sunrise.

Vsbys should improve to mainlyVFR by mid-late morning wed, but
cigs may linger in MVFR-ifr.

Kbdl taf... Moderate confidence in taf.VFR conditions should
continue into this evening, then lower to MVFR vsbys. May see
periods of ifr CIGS vsbys mainly after 06z through mid morning
wed, then improve toVFR.

Outlook Thursday through Sunday ...

Thursday morning... Moderate confidence. Areas of MVFR
ceilings visibilities in scattered showers except areas of ifr
ceilings visibility in showers and fog.

Thursday afternoon through Sunday... High confidence of mostlyVFR
conditions. The exception will be Sat afternoon with scattered
showers possible.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Wednesday night ...

today through Wednesday... High confidence.

1015 am update...

long period southerly swell from distant hurricane maria will
result in 7 to 11 foot seas through Wednesday across most of the
open waters. Small craft advisories from hazardous seas continue,
including across the eastern outer waters and the narragansett
bay entrance. In addition, areas of dense fog will impact the
waters and result in poor visibility for mariners at times,
especially during the overnight through mid morning hours.

Outlook Thursday through Sunday ...

*** near gale force northerly winds possible Thu ngt ***
swells from maria will likely affect the southern coastal waters
through at least Friday with hazardous seas. There may be a period
of north winds late Thursday into early Friday with 25 to 30 knot
gusts, possibly near gale force (35 kt) across the waters southeast
of nantucket. Showers and fog may lower visibilities to less than a
mile across some of the coastal waters into Thursday morning.

Visibility is not expected to be an issue Thursday night through
Sunday.

Tides coastal flooding
Long period southerly swells will continue to propagate
northward from distant hurricane maria across the southern
coastal waters. This will continue to create high surf and
dangerous rip currents along ocean exposed beaches of the south
coast, CAPE and islands. The high surf advisory remains in effect
through Thursday in this region, but will likely need to be extended
through the end of the work week given the continuation of long
period swell working northward from maria.

Climate
May come close to record highs tomorrow Wednesday especially at
bradley and worcester. Here are the records...

bos... 86... 1998
bdl... 88... 1998
pvd... 86... 1998
orh... 85... 1933

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... High surf advisory until 6 pm edt Thursday for maz020-022>024.

Ri... High surf advisory until 6 pm edt Thursday for riz006>008.

Marine... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 6 am edt
Thursday for anz233>235-237-250-254>256.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 6 am edt
Thursday for anz236.

Synopsis... Nocera
near term... Evt
short term... Frank
long term... Nocera
aviation... Nocera evt
marine... Nocera evt
tides coastal flooding... Nocera
climate... Dunham


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44090 9 mi36 min 66°F
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 12 mi85 min 1 78°F 1016 hPa70°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 20 mi40 min 74°F 67°F1015.9 hPa
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 26 mi80 min S 3.9 G 5.8 64°F 64°F2 ft1016.3 hPa (-1.2)64°F
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 37 mi40 min E 2.9 G 4.1 71°F 67°F1016.3 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 38 mi40 min 78°F 69°F1016.3 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 39 mi40 min SW 7 G 8 76°F 1014.7 hPa
FRXM3 39 mi40 min 78°F 70°F
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 39 mi70 min S 8.9 G 9.9 68°F 1016.5 hPa (-1.4)
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 43 mi80 min SE 9.7 G 9.7 66°F 65°F2 ft1015.3 hPa (-1.9)
PRUR1 46 mi40 min 73°F 68°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 47 mi40 min S 7 G 8 72°F 70°F1015.3 hPa
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 48 mi40 min SW 2.9 G 5.1 77°F 1015.6 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 48 mi85 min SW 4.1 77°F 69°F
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 49 mi40 min S 7 G 8 73°F 67°F1015.7 hPa

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA7 mi35 minVar 510.00 miFair79°F68°F70%1016.3 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA10 mi14 minSSW 410.00 miOvercast72°F66°F84%1015.8 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA19 mi18 minN 010.00 miFair83°F66°F57%1015.3 hPa
Provincetown Municipal Airport, MA22 mi14 minSE 410.00 miFair75°F69°F82%1015.8 hPa

Wind History from FMH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE5SE9SE5CalmSE6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3NW3CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmW54SW5--5
1 day agoS4SE4SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmE4SE8SE6SE5SE7SE7
2 days agoN9N7
G15
N8NE9NE7NE7N5NE6CalmN4CalmCalmN5N3CalmNE4N4NE54NE75E4NE4S5

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal (East Entrance), Massachusetts
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Cape Cod Canal (East Entrance)
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Tue -- 03:59 AM EDT     8.30 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:10 AM EDT     1.35 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:38 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:17 PM EDT     8.86 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:37 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 10:39 PM EDT     1.02 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
34.76.37.78.37.86.55.13.62.21.41.83.14.86.47.98.88.67.45.84.22.51.31.1

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:21 AM EDT     -0.16 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:09 AM EDT     -4.04 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:11 AM EDT     0.17 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:06 AM EDT     3.72 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 12:39 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:33 PM EDT     -0.02 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:30 PM EDT     -4.06 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:34 PM EDT     0.02 knots Slack
Tue -- 10:38 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 11:35 PM EDT     3.76 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.731.6-2.3-3.6-4-3.8-3-1.22.43.43.73.531.9-1.8-3.3-4-4-3.4-2.11.83.13.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.