Tuesday, February20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Crescent City, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 5:59PM Tuesday February 20, 2018 7:38 AM PST (15:38 UTC) Moonrise 9:48AMMoonset 11:07PM Illumination 28% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ330 1126 Pm Pdt Fri Aug 9 2013
.thunderstorms over the waters... Thunderstorms over the waters have weakened but isolated storms will continue overnight. Mariners can expect gusty and erratic winds with the storms along with frequent lightning. If caught on the open water stay below deck if possible...keep away from ungrounded metal objects. Lat...lon 4397 12411 4396 12411 4400 12413 4284 12455 4242 12440 4225 12441 4205 12428 4184 12422 4181 12580 4198 12579 4220 12589 4370 12576 4386 12565 4399 12562 4403 12414
PZZ300 315 Am Pst Tue Feb 20 2018
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..SEas are gradually diminishing and will drop below small craft conditions within the next few hours. Low pressure will move south along the outer waters this afternoon and evening. Seas are expected to be steep at times as fresh swell from this low moves in from the west. Offshore high pressure and a trough near the coast will wet up on Wednesday. Another low will move south Wednesday night into Thursday...causing winds to ramp up in the outer waters Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Crescent City, CA
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location: 41.76, -124.19     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 201312
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
512 am pst Tue feb 20 2018
updated aviation and marine

Short term The focus this morning has been on the potential for
snow tonight into Wednesday morning as a low pressure system
slides down the coast. More on that in a moment.

We have seen some light snow at times along and north of the
umpqua divide as moist, northwest flow is squeezed over the
mountains. Radar is overshooting all of this, but satellite shows
the associated cloud features well. There is currently in a clear
area on satellite over the umpqua, but there are more clouds
upstream, so we will probably see more flurries around. These
won't amount to much, but motorists will see the snow skittering
around on the roadways at times. We've even seen a few snowflakes
around medford, but these will amount to even less.

For the remainder of today, a low pressure system will move south
off the coast and bring rain to the waters and probably the
immediate coastline. There will be an increasing chance for a mix
of rain and snow in the west side valleys this afternoon, but
most if not all the precipitation will stay offshore.

A trailing shortwave aloft will move in behind the low pressure
late this evening and tonight. Models consistently show a
deformation band of precipitation dropping south with the
shortwave. Snow levels will be fairly low again tonight - around
500 feet - and model soundings show an all snow profile over most
inland west side locations. It's coming at night, so it looks like
it will be mostly snow inland from the coast. The main question
is snowfall amount. Deterministic, mos, and ensemble guidance all
indicate at least an inch of snow at roseburg with higher amounts
in the surrounding mountains, including the i-5 passes between
there and grants pass. Confidence is high enough that we'll see
some accumulating snow in these areas tonight to issue a winter
weather advisory, and one will be sent soon.

Further south, we'll probably also see at least light snow
develop by tomorrow morning in jackson and joesphine counties.

While all the guidance also shows an inch or so of snow in medford
and gp, the deformation band is shown to weaken as it moves south
of the umpqua divide. I don't have as much confidence in snow
amounts further south, so they've been left out of the advisory
for now. Snow is still in the forecast, but later shifts will re-
evaluate the need for headlines further south. There will be a
break with just light flurries or showers around later Wednesday
as we reload and wait for the next disturbance. -wright
long term... (Thursday through Monday)
a deep trough remains over our area on Thursday with cold northerly
flow aloft. Both the GFS and the ECMWF bring in some potent short
wave troughs and with low snow levels snow showers are possible
again across the west side valleys. Snow fall amounts will be light
in the valleys but upslope areas from northerly flow could see up to
an inch. Depending on how much clearing, Thursday night and Friday
morning could be quite cold with single digits to lower teens east
of the cascades, and lower to mid 20s for the western valleys.

On Friday, the trough is expected to shift east into the four
corners with weak ridging. However flow aloft in our area continues
out of the NW with scattered upslope snow showers. Friday night
temperatures will moderate a bit with mid 20s to lower 30s for west
side valleys and mid to upper teens to the east. On Saturday both
the GFS and ECMWF drive a cold front through NW oregon with
measurable precipitation for the umpqua basin and the coast, with
scattered showers elsewhere. Due to timing difference, confidence is
low to moderate on snowfall amount. If a system comes through
Saturday night, there will be a better chance for accumulating snow,
especially for low elevations.

Beyond Saturday night, models diverge wildly on timing of individual
front, but both the GFS and ECMWF suggest we will remain under
cloudy sky and showery pattern. -fb

Aviation 20 12z TAF cycle...VFR conditions will continue
south of the umpqua divide and east of the cascades, though mid
level clouds will bring partial terrain obscuration. A low
developing along the coast will bring a chance for more
precipitation along the coast and in the umpqua basin, bringing
periods of MVFR or even ifr CIGS this afternoon. Cold conditions
in the umpqua basin will bring another opportunity for light snow.

Marine Updated 500 am pst Tuesday 20 feb 2018... Seas are
gradually diminishing and will continue lowering over the next few
hours. Low pressure will move south along the outer waters this
afternoon and evening. Seas are expected to be steep at times as
fresh swell from this low moves in from the west. Offshore high
pressure and a trough near the coast will wet up on Wednesday.

Another low will move south Wednesday night into Thursday... Causing
winds to ramp up in the outer waters Thursday.

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... Freeze warning until 9 am pst this morning for orz021-022.

Winter weather advisory from 10 pm this evening to 10 am pst
Wednesday for orz023-024-026.

Ca... None.

Pacific coastal waters... None.

Trw msc


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 1 mi57 min ENE 5.1 G 7 34°F 48°F1024.5 hPa
46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA 12 mi49 min E 12 G 16 39°F 49°F8 ft1024.3 hPa (-0.6)
46244 - Humboldt Bay, North Spit, CA 60 mi39 min 50°F10 ft

Wind History for Crescent City, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Crescent City, Jack McNamara Field Airport, CA3 mi43 minE 510.00 miOvercast37°F26°F65%1025 hPa
Brookings, Brookings Airport, OR22 mi43 minVar 310.00 miOvercast33°F27°F78%1025.9 hPa

Wind History from CEC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3NE5NE6N7N12N11N16
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N9NE6NE6NE6NE5NE3E7E4E6E3NE6E4E5
1 day agoNW12NW9
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4CalmN4E8NE4N10
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CalmE4CalmNE4NE4
2 days agoE3CalmS6S9S10S11S11----W6SW5SW5SW7S10NW8NW12NW10NW6NW8NW8NW10NW11NW12
G17
N11
G17

Tide / Current Tables for Crescent City, California
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Crescent City
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:20 AM PST     6.76 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:05 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:34 AM PST     1.64 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:47 AM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:29 PM PST     5.83 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:56 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:30 PM PST     1.43 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:07 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.16.26.76.65.94.73.52.41.71.72.23.24.35.25.85.85.24.23.12.11.51.52.13.2

Tide / Current Tables for Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon
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Brookings
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:21 AM PST     6.76 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:05 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:38 AM PST     1.64 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:47 AM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:30 PM PST     5.83 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:56 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:34 PM PST     1.43 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:08 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
56.16.76.65.94.83.52.41.81.72.23.14.25.25.85.85.24.33.12.11.51.52.13.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.