Monday, July23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Orleans, MA

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Sunrise 5:25AMSunset 8:09PM Monday July 23, 2018 11:40 AM EDT (15:40 UTC) Moonrise 4:53PMMoonset 2:06AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ254 Coastal Waters From Provincetown Ma To Chatham Ma To Nantucket Ma Out 20 Nm- 1029 Am Edt Mon Jul 23 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday afternoon...
This afternoon..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Areas of fog.
Tonight..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Thu..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Fri night..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 1029 Am Edt Mon Jul 23 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pressure across the western atlantic this afternoon and Tuesday will push back toward the east Wednesday and Thursday. Tropical winds from the south will remain in place most of the week. The steady south flow will also build swell across the waters. A cold front will slowly approach late on Friday. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Orleans CDP, MA
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location: 41.77, -69.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 231424
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
1024 am edt Mon jul 23 2018

Synopsis
A tropical airmass will remain entrenched across southern new
england for most of the upcoming work week. Bands of showers
and a few thunderstorms will continue today, with the best
chance across the interior, with some scattered showers
lingering across the west tonight. Drier weather arrives Tuesday
as the bermuda high builds into the region. Showers and
thunderstorms become more widespread beginning late wed,
continuing into Thu and Fri as a cold front approaches the
region. A trend toward drier and less humid weather is likely
next weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Morning satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies over CAPE cod
and islands, as well as much of the coastal waters. Mainly
cloudy over the rest of southern new england. Radar also shows
showers in two blocks... One over the berkshires and eastern
slopes, the other over eastern central mass and ri.

High pressure offshore and low pressure to our west will combine
to channel southerly flow over new england this afternoon. High
dew points and high precipitable water values will mean lots of
moisture aloft through the afternoon, so we will continue to
expect clouds and scattered showers, even some widely scattered
thunderstorms. The high moisture content will contribute to
locally heavy downpours.

High pressure to our east will build farther west this
afternoon with the chance of convection diminishing in eastern
mass and ri during the afternoon evening hours, but continuing
in western ma and ct.

Expect temps to rise to the lower 80s away from the S coast,
holding in the mid to upper 70s near the shore with the onshore
wind.

Note... A high rip current risk statement has been issued for
the southern coastal areas of rhode island into south coastal
bristol county of massachusetts through this evening. Details
will be in the marine section below.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Tuesday
Tonight...

ridging at the surface and aloft continues to shift westward
tonight, pushing the convection into ny state. May still see
some scattered showers from the ct valley westward overnight
with leftover moisture in place. May see some patchy fog develop
along the coast and along the E slopes of the berkshires.

Expect rather sultry conditions to continue with the southerly
wind flow in place. Temps will bottom out in the upper 60s to
lower 70s.

Tuesday...

with drier air working in from the e, may actually see some
sunshine along E coastal areas during the day with the best
subsidence in place. However, clouds will linger inland, along
with the chance for diurnal showers. The best shot will occur
along the E slopes of the berkshires where s-se wind flow
continues.

Very humid conditions will be across the region with dewpts up
to the 70-75 degree range. Forecast highs will be in the lower
to mid 80s, except a bit cooler along the immediate coast as
the higher inland terrain.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
Updated 325 am...

highlights...

* highest probability for showers t-storms late Wed into thu
* tropical humidity breaks next weekend with frontal passage
Tuesday night...

anomalous 596 dam ridge over the northwest atlantic remains close
enough to new england to shunt tropical moisture plume west of new
england, providing mainly dry weather across our region. Model cross
and time sections reveal dry air aloft (above 700 mb) but sufficient
low level moisture to run the risk for a few low top tropical
showers. Although areal coverage should be isolated. Remaining very
warm and humid with dew pts in the low 70s. Given the anomalous
moist airmass patchy fog is possible.

Wednesday and Thursday...

fairly high amplitude (-1 standard deviation 500 mb heights)
northern stream short wave trough for late july over the great lakes
begins to advect into new england late Wed through thu. This
increases cyclonic mid level flow over the area along with attending
cold front and return of tropical plume conveyor belt from west to
east. This results in all guidance sources increasing pop values to
likely category late Wed into thu. Low risk for a few strong t-
storms as 0-6km deep layer shear increases to 25-30 kt along with
mucapes greater than a 1000j kg. Also heavy rainfall threat with
pwats 2+ standard deviations and surface dew pts 70-75 (low lcls
too). Remaining seasonably warm with highs 80-85 both days but it
will feel even warmer given the high dew pts.

Friday...

ensembles and deterministic guidance suggest column begins to dry
behind departing short wave and surface front late Thu thu night.

However trailing secondary short wave and front moves across the
region Fri and may be accompanied by sufficient moisture and
instability for another round of convection. There are some timing
differences and it's possible the secondary cold front could be
delayed until sat. Regarding temps, Fri could be the warmest day of
the week with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

Saturday and Sunday...

mean mid level trough sets up over the northeast and quebec-ontario,
eroding northwest atlantic ridge and provides southern new england
with mainly dry weather (provided cold front doesn't slow down and
impact Saturday's weather) and less humid. 850 mb and 925 mb temp
anomalies from the ensembles suggest near normal temps with highs 80-
85 and lows 60-65.

Aviation 14z Monday through Friday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday ...

today... Moderate confidence.

Vfr on CAPE cod and islands, with MVFR and patchy ifr over the
rest of southern new england. Expect conditions to improve
through the afternoon with more extensiveVFR in the mid to late
afternoon. Scattered showers and widely scattered tstms, with
the best chance over western mass and adjacent northern ct.

Tonight... Moderate confidence.

MVFR-vfr CIGS early lower to ifr-lifr across the interior and
possible as far E as kbos. Patchy fog along the coast and higher
terrain may lower vsbys to MVFR to locally ifr mainly after
midnight. Scattered showers linger across W mass N central ct.

Tuesday... Moderate confidence.

MVFR-ifr conditions especially inland through at least mid
morning, then improving to mainlyVFR. MVFR vsbys may linger
through at least midday along the coast in patchy fog.

Kbos terminal... Moderate confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... Moderate confidence in taf.

Outlook Tuesday night through Friday ...

Tuesday night: MVFR ifr conditions possible. Chance shra,
patchy fg.

Wednesday: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Breezy. Chance
shra, chance tsra with locally heavy rain, patchy br. Llws
possible late in the day.

Wednesday night: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Breezy.

Shra likely, chance tsra with locally heavy rain. Llws
possible.

Thursday: mainly MVFR, with areasVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
shra, chance tsra with locally heavy rain. Llws possible.

Thursday night: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance shra.

Friday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
shra, slight chance tsra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday ...

today... High confidence.

***high rip current risk through this evening along S facing
beaches from horseneck beach (southern bristol county ma) and
the ri beaches as well as on the islands***
this afternoon... With persistent s-se winds, seas remain
upwards to 8 ft every 9 seconds at the offshore buoys S of the
ri coast. The long ground swell will continue to propagate
toward the S coast, where the best chance for rip currents will
occur. A coastal hazard statement has been issued with more
details.

Expect wind gusts up to 25 kt on the southern outer waters
through midday, then will slowly diminish. This will keep the
seas high. Have continued small craft advisories for the open
waters as well as ri and bi sounds. Conditions may subside by
early afternoon on the outer waters E of boston and CAPE ann.

May see patchy fog linger over the open waters with reduced
visibility at times. Scattered showers at times as well.

Tonight and Tuesday... High confidence.

S-se winds remain in place, with gusts up to around 20 kt
tonight. Seas subside on the eastern outer waters, but will
remain at or above 5 ft from CAPE cod E and S and the southern
waters through Tuesday. Patchy fog will also reduce visibility
at times mainly tonight into early Tuesday morning.

Outlook Tuesday night through Friday ...

Tuesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight
chance of rain showers, patchy fog. Areas of visibility 1 to
3 nm.

Wednesday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of
rain showers, chance of thunderstorms, patchy fog. Areas of
visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Wednesday night: S winds 20-30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance
of rain showers, chance of thunderstorms. Local visibility 1 to
3 nm.

Thursday: SW winds 20-30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of
rain showers, chance of thunderstorms with locally heavy rain.

Thursday night: winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance
of rain showers, chance of thunderstorms.

Friday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Slight chance of rain showers.

Climate
High dew points and oppressive humidity are expected this week.

Dew points have been regularly observed at boston since 1936,
at providence since 1938, and at hartford and worcester since
1949. Here are the daily highest observed values for our four
climate sites for each day through Friday, and the year these
values last occurred:
boston
july 23 76 2003
july 24 75 2003
july 25 77 1986
july 26 76 1995
july 27 79 1940 *all-time highest at bos*
providence
july 23 77 1991
july 24 76 1990
july 25 77 1995
july 26 80 1940
july 27 76 1995
hartford
july 23 76 1991
july 24 76 1975
july 25 76 1995
july 26 78 1995
july 27 81 2005 *july highest at bdl*
worcester
july 23 74 1978
july 24 75 2010
july 25 75 2010
july 26 75 1995
july 27 74 2005

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... High rip current risk until 8 pm edt this evening for maz020-
023-024.

Ri... High rip current risk until 8 pm edt this evening for
riz006>008.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Tuesday for anz235-237-
254>256.

Small craft advisory until 1 am edt Tuesday for anz250.

Synopsis... Nocera evt
near term... Wtb nocera evt
short term... Evt
long term... Nocera
aviation... Wtb nocera evt
marine... Wtb nocera evt
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44090 21 mi40 min 66°F1 ft
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 26 mi30 min SSE 16 G 19 74°F 73°F1024.7 hPa71°F
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 32 mi50 min SSE 9.7 G 14 70°F 3 ft1024.9 hPa (+1.2)69°F
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 34 mi55 min 2.9 77°F 1025 hPa73°F
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 35 mi46 min SSE 7 G 14 75°F 73°F1025 hPa
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 42 mi40 min 78°F 72°F1024.4 hPa (+1.1)

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chatham, Chatham Municipal Airport, MA6 mi48 minS 9 G 2010.00 miOvercast71°F66°F84%1025.7 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA19 mi44 minSSE 9 G 179.00 miFair78°F72°F82%1024.4 hPa
Provincetown Municipal Airport, MA22 mi44 minS 14 G 2110.00 miFair79°F72°F79%1025 hPa

Wind History from CQX (wind in knots)
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1 day agoE76SE8E8E8E8E6E8E5E6E6E6E8E7E7E7E8E9E9SE9
G20
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2 days agoSE5SE7SE7SE86S6Calm3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4E4E6E8S7E7

Tide / Current Tables for Nauset Harbor, Cape Cod, Massachusetts
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Nauset Harbor
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Mon -- 02:06 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:39 AM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:29 AM EDT     5.34 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:48 PM EDT     0.73 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:52 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:44 PM EDT     6.10 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.22.81.40.50.40.923.44.75.35.34.94.23.2210.71.22.23.75.15.96.15.7

Tide / Current Tables for Pollock Rip Channel, Massachusetts Current
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Pollock Rip Channel
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:37 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:06 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:14 AM EDT     2.07 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:12 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:10 AM EDT     -1.54 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 01:06 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:38 PM EDT     1.92 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 04:52 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:27 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:32 PM EDT     -1.68 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.60.31.11.72.11.91.20.2-0.7-1.3-1.5-1.4-0.9-0.10.71.41.81.91.40.5-0.5-1.3-1.6-1.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.