Sunday, May20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Orleans, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 5:14AMSunset 8:00PM Sunday May 20, 2018 7:32 AM EDT (11:32 UTC) Moonrise 10:26AMMoonset 12:20AM Illumination 30% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ254 Coastal Waters From Provincetown Ma To Chatham Ma To Nantucket Ma Out 20 Nm- 716 Am Edt Sun May 20 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Areas of fog. Isolated tstms. Showers this morning, then a slight chance of showers this afternoon. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Areas of fog. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Am Edt Sun May 20 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A cold front will cross the waters late this afternoon and evening. Another round of showers likely later today, and possibly a few rumbles of Thunder. Fair weather high pres will bring dry weather across the waters Mon through most of Tue. Rain chances increase Tue night into Wed morning as low pres passes overhead. Dry weather returns Wed and Thu as another high pres begins building E over new england. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Orleans CDP, MA
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location: 41.77, -69.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 201053
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
653 am edt Sun may 20 2018

Synopsis
A warm front warm front lifts north through the region tonight,
allowing a warm and humid airmass to overspread the area. A
cold front triggers scattered showers with brief heavy rainfall
and isolated thunder this afternoon. Drier this evening into
Monday with passing showers during the mid-week. Cooler, drier
air follows for Thursday into Saturday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
700 am update...

upper level trough continues to approach the region from the
west while surface cold front is currently draped across the
eastern great lakes into northern new england. This front will
be the focus of convection that develops today.

Still a lot of clouds across the region with areas of fog and
drizzle. These clouds may limit temperatures and instability
today. Have noticed in area webcams that the dense fog has
pushed back in across the south coast as vsbys are at or below
1 4sm. Will wait for the top of the hour obs but may issue a sps
for the patchy dense fog.

Still have a good LLJ over the region and with high pwat values
cannot rule out a few isolated showers during the morning hours.

Timing from the cams suggest that the front will approaching
between 11 and 1 pm and move across southern new england through
the day. As mentioned before, there is the potential for some
embedded thunder but any severe weather appears unlikely at this
time. The front will move offshore by 7-8 pm leading to a quick
drying trend as winds will turn out of the northwest and
canadian high pressure builds into southern new england.

Aside from the rain and fog, winds across southeast ma have
increased to 20-25 kts. Expect these type of gusts to continue
into the morning hours as low level lapse rates begin to
steepen and we mix out per bufkit soundings.

Previous discussion...

low clouds and fog will be prevalent this morning. Widespread
showers early this morning across ri and SE ma will move
offshore by mid morning.

Clouds will be key to the realized weather later this afternoon.

A cold front will move through this afternoon and evening.

Instability will be very dependent upon the amount of sunshine.

Forecast CAPE values in some of the high resolution guidance of
500-1,000 j kg persist. The longer the clouds linger, the lower
the CAPE values will likely be, and the fewer thunderstorms
would result. In either case, not expecting severe weather
because many other ingredients are missing.

Precipitable water values of 1.50-1.75 inches will mean locally
heavy rainfall is possible, too. Still looks like the window for
the greatest risk for showers, after daybreak, will be between
10 am and 5 pm.

Modest southwest winds will push warmer and more humid air into
our region. This should make for a more summer-like feel today.

High temperatures generally in the 70s away from the coasts,
perhaps a little higher where sunshine breaks out for a while.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Monday
High pressure building into the great lakes tonight and Monday
will send drier weather our way. Mainly clear skies will permit
the sunshine to boost temperatures well into the 70s Monday away
from the immediate coast. Local seabreezes possible. Not nearly
as humid as today, with comfortable dewpoints mainly in the
40s.

Long term Monday night through Saturday
Highlights...

* passing showers Tuesday and Wednesday
* potential for dry weather but below avg temps for the end of
this week
* potential for wet weather memorial day weekend
details...

Monday night... High confidence.

Dry weather will prevail as high pressure slides into the gulf
of mexico. Approaching warm front to the south will help
increase dewpoints and leave temperatures cool but mild. Lows in
the mid 50s.

Tuesday into Wednesday... Moderate confidence.

Bermuda high pressure remains while upper level trough
continues over the northeast canada. This puts the region in a
more zonal pattern. Weak wave moving through the flow will slide
along a stalled front south of southern new england. This could
bring showers across the area and keep the region on the cool
side of the front. Still a spread on how far north precip will
get, but right now highest confidence is south of the pike.

Behind this disturbance, an approaching cold front will move in
from the northwest. This front is associated with the upper
level trough digging into the northeast. Could see some showers
along this front but moisture is a bit marginal. Models are even
hinting as some sb cape, so if showers develop cannot rule out
a rumble of thunder. Temperatures will be more seasonable with
highs in the mid 70s.

Thursday into Saturday... Moderate confidence.

Drier but breezy conditions looks to be in store for the end of
the week due to a northwest flow pattern. Lots of dry air will
dominate on Thursday, but appears that a weak disturbance will
move through the area on Friday. For now trended the
temperatures below avg and kept with a dry forecast.

Sunday and beyond... Moderate confidence.

Digging trough over the great lakes will move into the
northeast, resulting southwest flow aloft. Good moisture plume
moving up from the gulf could result in wet weather Sunday into
Monday. Still a lot of uncertainty in regards to the weekend so
stay tuned.

Aviation 12z Sunday through Thursday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Monday ...

today... High confidence in trends. Moderate confidence in
timing. Ifr lifr lifts to MVFR by midday, slightly longer south
coast. Drizzle and areas of morning fog erode by midday but give
way to a broken line of showers along and ahead of an
approaching cold front. Low probability of isolated
thunderstorms, but showers will contain locally heavy rain from
about 15z-21z from west to east. Breezy southwest winds 15 to 20
kt with a few gusts up to 25 kt possible.

Tonight... High confidence in trends. Moderate confidence in
timing. Any leftover ifr MVFR early evening over CAPE cod
improves rapidly toVFR. OtherwiseVFR and dry weather.

Monday... High confidence.VFR.

Kbos terminal... Moderate confidence in taf. Low risk for iso
thunder between 17-21z.

Kbdl terminal... Moderate confidence in taf.

Outlook Monday night through Thursday ... Moderate confidence.

Monday night:VFR.

Tuesday:VFR. Chance shra.

Tuesday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
shra.

Wednesday:VFR. Slight chance shra.

Wednesday night through Thursday:VFR.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Monday ... Moderate confidence.

Areas of fog will lead to restricted visibility, less than 1 nm
at times. Increasing SW winds ahead of a cold front today. Gusts
up to 25-30 kt. Showers with locally heavy rain this afternoon
and early evening. Winds become northerly behind a cold front
tonight and quickly diminish. Rough seas will take a little
longer to subside, especially across the outer coastal waters.

Outlook Monday night through Thursday ... Moderate confidence.

Monday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.

Tuesday through Tuesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Chance of
rain showers.

Wednesday: winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain
showers.

Wednesday night through Thursday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas
locally approaching 5 ft.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for
anz232>234-250.

Small craft advisory until noon edt today for anz230-251.

Small craft advisory until 3 pm edt this afternoon for anz231.

Small craft advisory until midnight edt tonight for anz236.

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Monday for anz235-237-254.

Small craft advisory until 1 pm edt Monday for anz255-256.

Synopsis... Belk dunten
near term... Belk dunten
short term... Belk
long term... Dunten
aviation... Belk dunten
marine... Belk dunten


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44090 21 mi32 min 52°F2 ft
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 26 mi42 min SW 21 G 23 56°F 49°F2 ft1015.2 hPa (-1.4)56°F
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 32 mi42 min SSW 19 G 23 55°F 3 ft1013.3 hPa (-1.7)55°F
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 34 mi107 min 6 62°F 1016 hPa62°F
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 35 mi50 min SW 13 G 20 60°F 56°F1016.5 hPa
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 42 mi44 min 58°F 55°F1015.8 hPa

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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NE13
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E1
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G6
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NE12
G19

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chatham, Chatham Municipal Airport, MA6 mi40 minSW 8 G 190.75 miLight Rain Fog/Mist59°F59°F100%1016.1 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA19 mi36 minSW 85.00 miFog/Mist61°F61°F100%1015.2 hPa
Provincetown Municipal Airport, MA22 mi36 minSSW 19 G 247.00 miOvercast and Breezy58°F57°F97%1014.2 hPa

Wind History from CQX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE8E10E11E9E8E9E7E6E9E6E6SE6S76S4SW5SW7SW7SW10
G18
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SW6SW8
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1 day agoNE14
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G26
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NE7NE9
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NE7NE7E8E6E6E7E7E7E7E6E6E7E8
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmW3S3S3CalmCalmSW4CalmS4CalmSW4SW6SW5SW4CalmSW4CalmNE4NE11
G20
NE14
G21
NE14
G19

Tide / Current Tables for Nauset Harbor, Cape Cod, Massachusetts
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Nauset Harbor
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:20 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:07 AM EDT     7.18 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:26 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:52 AM EDT     -0.64 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:50 PM EDT     6.29 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:11 PM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.73.35.16.57.26.85.64.12.51-0.2-0.601.434.766.35.74.73.42.10.90.3

Tide / Current Tables for Pollock Rip Channel, Massachusetts Current
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Pollock Rip Channel
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:19 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 01:34 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:16 AM EDT     -1.92 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 05:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:25 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 10:27 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:49 AM EDT     2.18 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 02:20 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:56 PM EDT     -1.77 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:09 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 11:20 PM EDT     1.75 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.30.6-0.5-1.4-1.9-1.8-1.2-0.40.61.522.21.91.30.4-0.7-1.5-1.8-1.5-1-0.10.71.41.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.