Friday, November16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Orleans, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:30AMSunset 4:20PM Friday November 16, 2018 9:36 PM EST (02:36 UTC) Moonrise 2:19PMMoonset 12:18AM Illumination 66% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ254 Coastal Waters From Provincetown Ma To Chatham Ma To Nantucket Ma Out 20 Nm- 716 Pm Est Fri Nov 16 2018
.gale warning in effect until 1 am est Saturday...
Tonight..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
Sat..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the morning. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Pm Est Fri Nov 16 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A coastal storm moves up into the maritimes this evening. This will bring strong winds to the waters through this evening. High pressure returns for the weekend. A cold front passes across the waters on Sunday. High pressure returns for Monday into Tuesday. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Orleans CDP, MA
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location: 41.77, -69.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 170011
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
711 pm est Fri nov 16 2018

Synopsis
Dry and chilly weather continues into Sunday afternoon. Weak
low pressure may bring patchy light rain and or snow late Sunday
into Monday. Another shot of colder air moves in by the middle
of next week, though it should be mainly dry.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
7 pm update...

showers have come to an end this evening as clouds begin to
scatter out. Based on satellite initializing fairly well with
the latest hi- res guidance have brought in clearing skies
a bit earlier overnight, though enough moisture lingers to keep
at least partly cloudy skies, mainly over northwest ma.

Previous discussion...

a few left over light rain snow showers will wind down early
this evening. Temps mainly above freezing... So no problems
expected on the roadways. Otherwise... Dry weather with just an
abundance of clouds this evening. We should see the clouds
scatter out tonight... But guidance might be doing this too fast
given a fair amount of low level moisture remaining. Enough
westerly flow aloft and lack of cold advection will keep
temperatures from bottoming out tonight. Lows should generally
range from around 30 to the middle 30s... So many locations will
not see temperatures drop too much from their current late
afternoon readings.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through Saturday night
Saturday...

westerly flow aloft and at the surface will result in a
dry tranquil Saturday. A mixture of clouds and sunshine with decent
mixing will allow highs to reach the lower 40s in the higher
terrain... To the middle and upper 40s elsewhere. It is not out
of the question that a couple locations hit 50. While these
temperatures are still below normal for mid november... Quite a
bit milder than what we have experienced the last few days.

Saturday night...

large high pressure gradually builds in from the west Saturday
night. This will result in a dry, but chilly night. While we may
see an increase in some mid high level cloudiness
overnight... There should be enough of a window to allow most
locations to bottom out in the 20s especially with early season
snow cover in place.

Long term Sunday through Friday
Highlights...

* weak low pressure brings periods of rain and snow late Sun into
mon
* dry and colder mid week
* potential for warm up toward next weekend
overview...

high pressure on Sunday will give way to a weak low pressure system
which crosses sne late Sunday bringing a mix of rain and snow
showers to the region. There exists good model agreement that the
broad upper trough extending from canada sweeps it east by mid week.

This ushers in a large surface high pressure and a drier, much
colder air mass. This dry airmass sticks around through the end of
the week while temperatures, after bottoming out on Wednesday, start
to moderate back toward more seasonable warmth. There's good support
for this warmup, as both the eps and GEFS ensemble models show
anomolous warmth in the low levels.

Details...

Sunday...

Sunday will be a quiet day under the influence of a large surface
high centered over sne. Winds are light under a dry zonal flow at
the mid levels with pwats <0.5". We'll start out with partly sunny
skies, but clouds are on the increase through the day from south to
north as mid level moisture streams in ahead of the next system.

Northwest to west winds initially will keep temps cool, topping out
in the 30s and low 40s.

Sunday night and Monday...

flow becomes more amplified late Sunday as a shortwave swings
through the broad upper trough extending from a mid level low over
hudson bay. This helps develop an inland surface low that tracks
across our south coast overnight. A weak warm front lifts north
overnight with an increased tap of moisture through the column
(pwats ~0.75") for widespread light precipitation. The airmass
remains cold enough that we'll see snow initially for areas away
from the coast. Along the coast onshore winds will keep the column
too warm. Mid and upper level flow then becomes southwesterly as we
go into Monday, which will warm temperatures and change thing over
to rain from south to north through early Monday. QPF amounts are
minimal, though there is still ample disagreement. The GFS ec want
to bring in between a quarter and a half inch of liquid while the
higher res NAM indicates much less, so went with a blend for now.

Tuesday through Friday...

Tuesday we remain under the broad upper trough but should remain
mostly dry with clearing skies and our last "warmer" day with highs
in the 30s-40s (it's all relative). By Wednesday a large surface
high moves in bringing good CAA and a very cold airmass. H85
temperatures dip around -10 to -14c, 2 to 3 sd below normal.

Deterministic and ensemble models paint a similar picture with low
temps in the teens to low 20s Wednesday morning and highs in the 20s
to 30s. This CAA will also have potential to help mix down a decent
h95 jet for some gusty winds, but confidence is low on this given
~24 hr timing difference between the GFS and ec. Thursday and Friday
temperatures begin to moderate a bit each day as the lob of arctic
air rotates out of the area. Details are uncertain but in general
Thursday-Friday look dry as a weak ridge builds toward the east
coast and temperatures moderate into the 40s. Ensemble solutions
begin to show anomolous warmth in the low levels by next weekend and
we could in store for a significant warm up.

Aviation 00z Saturday through Wednesday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Saturday night ...

tonight... Moderate to high confidence. A mix of clear skies and
vrf MVFR CIGS this evening, expected to imporove through the
night. CIGS mainly expected to linger over northwest ma.Westerly
wind gusts diminish for most... But some 25 to 35 knot gusts
will continue across portions of the outer CAPE ack with good
mixing over the relatively mild ocean.

Saturday and Saturday night... High confidence. MainlyVFR but
some marginal MVFR CIGS are possible generally during the
daylight hours across the interior. Westerly wind gusts around 20
knots are expected Saturday afternoon.

Kbos terminal... Moderate to high confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... Moderate to high confidence in taf.

Outlook Sunday through Wednesday ...

Sunday:VFR.

Sunday night: MVFR ifr conditions possible. Chance sn, chance
ra.

Monday: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Breezy. Chance sn,
slight chance ra.

Monday night:VFR. Slight chance sn.

Tuesday:VFR. Breezy. Slight chance sn.

Tuesday night:VFR. Windy with local gusts to 30 kt.

Wednesday:VFR. Breezy.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Saturday night ... High confidence.

Tonight... Good mixing over the relatively mild ocean will yield
westerly wind gusts of 30 to 35 knots over the open waters
tonight. Opted to extend gales through the evening... As it appears
there may be another surge of 35 knot wind gusts. Seas will
gradually diminish but remain above 5 feet over the open waters.

Saturday and Saturday night... Pressure gradient will continue to
weaken... But enough mixing should still yield westerly wind
gusts of 20 to 25 knots. We will likely need small craft
headlines for at least seas into Saturday afternoon over the
open waters.

Outlook Sunday through Wednesday ...

Sunday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Sunday night: winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain.

Monday through Monday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of
seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain.

Tuesday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of
rain. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Tuesday night: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of
snow. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Wednesday: winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Local
visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Gale warning until 1 am est Saturday for anz231-232-250-251-
254>256.

Gale warning until 10 pm est this evening for anz233>235-237.

Small craft advisory until 7 pm est this evening for anz230-
236.

Synopsis... Frank bw
near term... Frank bw
short term... Frank
long term... Bw
aviation... Frank bw
marine... Frank bw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44090 21 mi36 min 51°F4 ft
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 26 mi46 min W 25 G 33 44°F 48°F3 ft1008 hPa35°F
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 32 mi46 min W 23 G 29 41°F 10 ft1006 hPa (+2.4)32°F
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 34 mi51 min 6 42°F 1009 hPa35°F
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 35 mi36 min W 11 G 24 44°F 45°F1008.5 hPa (+2.8)
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 42 mi36 min 43°F 48°F1008.8 hPa (+2.9)

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chatham, Chatham Municipal Airport, MA6 mi44 minVar 510.00 miFair38°F30°F76%1008.2 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA19 mi40 minW 1110.00 miFair39°F32°F76%1007.6 hPa
Provincetown Municipal Airport, MA22 mi40 minW 18 G 2610.00 miFair and Breezy40°F33°F77%1007.3 hPa

Wind History from CQX (wind in knots)
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1 day ago4
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46NW543NW34NW333NE7E6E7E8NE6E7E8E9E8E8
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6--

Tide / Current Tables for Nauset Harbor, Cape Cod, Massachusetts
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Nauset Harbor
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Fri -- 12:07 AM EST     0.80 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:59 AM EST     5.30 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:30 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:29 PM EST     1.30 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:19 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:18 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:13 PM EST     5.55 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.81.11.82.8455.354.43.72.921.41.41.92.8455.55.44.73.932.1

Tide / Current Tables for Pollock Rip Channel, Massachusetts Current
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Pollock Rip Channel
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:42 AM EST     1.87 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 03:48 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:29 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:32 AM EST     -1.50 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 09:44 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:13 PM EST     1.64 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 01:18 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:07 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:19 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:49 PM EST     -1.48 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 09:55 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.81.91.60.8-0.2-1-1.5-1.5-1.2-0.60.20.91.41.61.510.1-0.8-1.3-1.5-1.2-0.70.10.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.