Monday, September24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Orleans, MA

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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:29AMSunset 6:35PM Monday September 24, 2018 3:38 AM EDT (07:38 UTC) Moonrise 6:45PMMoonset 5:45AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ254 Coastal Waters From Provincetown Ma To Chatham Ma To Nantucket Ma Out 20 Nm- 116 Am Edt Mon Sep 24 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 6 am edt this morning through Tuesday afternoon...
Rest of tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Mon night..E winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Tue..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue night..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Patchy fog. Rain. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Wed..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Patchy fog. Showers likely. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Wed night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Thu night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Fri..E winds around 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 116 Am Edt Mon Sep 24 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A backdoor cold front will move south across the waters late tonight as a strong high pres builds across maine and nova scotia Mon. The high then moves to the canadian maritimes Tue. A warm front will lift north of the waters Wed and be followed by a cold front moving across the waters early Thu. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Orleans CDP, MA
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location: 41.77, -69.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 240556
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
156 am edt Mon sep 24 2018

Synopsis
Dry and unseasonably cool weather will continue into Monday evening.

An approaching warm front will bring a soaking heavy rain to the
region Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Warmer and muggier weather
returns Wednesday with scattered showers thunderstorms. Low
confidence forecast late this week into next weekend... But overall
feel mainly dry and seasonable weather will dominate.

Near term until 6 am this morning
150 am update...

skies are clearing skies as high clouds finally move to the
south. Radiational cooling will result in temps bottoming out in
the 40s. The backdoor front is pushing south from the gulf of
maine and will move through sne through daybreak followed by
increasing NE winds with gusts to 20-30 mph across eastern ma
coast. Expect rising temps after the frontal passage as the wind
comes from warmer sst.

Model soundings continue to show a shallow layer of moisture around
900-950 mb developing by daybreak Monday morning across NE ma,
allowing for some lower clouds to develop.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Tuesday
Monday...

will certainly feel like a fall day as an area of strong canadian
high pressure pushes SE and becomes centered over me nova scotia.

This sets us up for a brisk east wind, with gusts 20 to 25 mph.

Anticipating some gusts 25-30 mph along eastern ma during the
morning. Shallow layer of moisture remains at 900-950 mb, onshore
winds will likely help keep that moisture in place prompting a
considerable amount of lower clouds to linger over our area. However
since that moisture layer is so shallow, not expecting showers to
accompany it. Should have some breaks of sunshine. Then late in the
day, models show an increase in upper level moisture so could see
some cirrus moving in.

It will quite cool as 925 mb temps fall to 6-8c across much of the
area, even some 4c air at 925 across the far northern tier of ma.

Highs will range from the mid upper 50s across central and NE ma to
lower 60s lower ct valley and ri SE ma.

Monday night...

the high pressure center tracks eastward into the canadian
maritimes, with warm air advection bringing increasing moisture from
sw to ne, mainly after midnight. Will see cloudy skies as the night
wears on. Chances for rain increase across central and western
portions of the area during the early morning hours on Tuesday.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
Highlights...

* widespread soaking heavy rain Tue into Tue evening
* heavy showers may re-develop near the south coast late Tue night
* warmer & muggier Wed wed eve with scattered showers t-storms
* low confidence thu-sun... But favoring mainly dry & seasonable
details...

Tuesday and Tuesday night...

the model guidance continues to advertise a widespread soaking heavy
rainfall Tue into Tue evening. A warm front will be approaching
from the south coupled with a southerly low level jet pwat plume
that increases to 2-3 standard deviations above normal. Given a 40
to 50 knot low level jet with a warm front acting as a focus... The
stage is set for a soaking heavy rainfall. Overall... This looks
like a widespread 1 to 2 inch rainfall event with perhaps some
localized higher amounts around 2.50 inches. Appears the greatest
chance for the higher amounts will be focused across the
interior... Where the best forcing resides. High temps Tue will
mainly be in the 60s... But some locations across the interior high
terrain may not break 60.

Overall... Feel this heavy rain will be more of a typical nuisance
poor drainage street flooding event. We still can not rule out the
low risk for more significant flooding if convective elements get
involved. It is something to monitor but nothing warrants us to
issue any type of flood watch at this time.

Otherwise, if the warm front lifts north of the region Tue night
which is always tricky to predict... Precipitation should become more
scattered in nature and there may even be an embedded t-storm or
two. We also should note... May have to watch some for some tropical
moisture and downpours re-developing late near the south coast in
association with a low level jet tropical moisture plume getting
pulled northward.

Wednesday and Wednesday night...

model guidance indicates that southern new england will be in the
warm sector. This will result in a warmer and muggier day. High
temps should reach well into the 70s and it is possible that some
locales break 80 if enough solar insolation occurs. While Wednesday
will not be a complete washout... There will be the potential for
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Perhaps in the morning across
southeast new england with plume of tropical moisture. Another good
chance may come in the late Wed afternoon evening... When the
greatest height falls forcing arrive. Decent jet dynamics... So if
somehow we have enough instability can not rule out the low risk for
a few strong to severe thunderstorms across the interior. Main
concern would be risk for locally strong to damaging wind gusts.

Thursday through next weekend...

low confidence... But appears much of the time from Thu into next
weekend will feature dry seasonable weather. Low risk for some
showers Thu Fri as the GFS has a wave of low pressure near the south
coast... But most of the other guidance builds high pressure into the
region. Perhaps a weak front bring a few showers sometime sun
too... But overall feel this time period will feature mainly dry
weather.

Aviation 06z Monday through Friday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday ...

today... Moderate confidence.

Areas of low endVFR MVFR CIGS will develop toward daybreak
across eastern ma then spreading W SW across sne. Not expecting
widespread clouds but periods of sct-bkn strato-cu is likely.

Ne wind gusts to 25 kt expected along the coast, diminishing in
the afternoon.

Tonight... Moderate confidence.

MainlyVFR. Leading edge of rain and MVFR conditions will likely
reach portions of western ma and northern ct 09-12z.

Tuesday... High confidence.

Widespread ifr developing with rain heavy at times moving west
to east across sne. SE wind gusts to 30 kt along the coast.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf.

Outlook Tuesday night through Friday ...

Tuesday night: MVFR ifr conditions possible. Windy with gusts
to 30 kt. Shra likely, isolated tsra, patchy br.

Wednesday: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Chance shra, isolated tsra.

Wednesday night: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy.

Chance shra, isolated tsra.

Thursday:VFR. Breezy.

Thursday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance shra.

Friday:VFR.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday ... High confidence.

This evening... Light winds and seas with high pressure over the
waters.

Overnight and Monday... Increasing NE winds develop later tonight
into Monday morning behind a backdoor cold front. Gusts to 25-30 kt
likely across eastern ma waters late tonight into Monday morning
with these stronger wind gusts shifting to the southern waters
during Mon afternoon. SCA headlines posted for late tonight into
tomorrow for winds seas.

Monday night... SCA headlines continue for E winds seas across the
outer coastal waters.

Outlook Tuesday night through Friday ...

Tuesday: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 30 kt.

Areas of rough seas. Rain, patchy fog. Local visibility 1 to
3 nm.

Tuesday night: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 8 ft. Rain showers
likely, isolated thunderstorms, patchy fog. Areas of visibility
1 to 3 nm.

Wednesday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers,
isolated thunderstorms.

Wednesday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
local gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain
showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Thursday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight
chance of rain showers.

Thursday night through Friday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of
seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 8 am this morning to 8 pm edt this
evening for anz232>234.

Small craft advisory until 2 pm edt this afternoon for anz230.

Small craft advisory from 6 am this morning to 4 pm edt this
afternoon for anz231.

Small craft advisory from 8 am this morning to 6 pm edt
Tuesday for anz235-237-255-256.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Tuesday for anz250-251.

Small craft advisory from 6 am this morning to 6 pm edt
Tuesday for anz254.

Synopsis... Frank nmb
near term... Kjc
short term... Nmb
long term... Frank
aviation... Kjc frank
marine... Frank nmb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44090 21 mi38 min 66°F
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 26 mi38 min NE 12 G 14 63°F 70°F1026.8 hPa (+0.5)52°F
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 32 mi48 min NNE 7.8 G 9.7 62°F 2 ft1027.4 hPa (+1.0)53°F
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 34 mi53 min 2.9 51°F 1027 hPa48°F
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 35 mi38 min NE 6 G 9.9 62°F 69°F1026.6 hPa (+0.4)
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 42 mi38 min 57°F 70°F1026.8 hPa (+0.5)

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chatham, Chatham Municipal Airport, MA6 mi46 minN 310.00 miFair53°F50°F89%1027.6 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA19 mi42 minN 010.00 miFair47°F46°F97%1026.9 hPa
Provincetown Municipal Airport, MA22 mi42 minNE 710.00 miFair60°F53°F78%1027.7 hPa

Wind History from CQX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3CalmCalmS43S3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmN3
1 day agoSW11
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NW75NE6NE73NE6NE5CalmNE4N3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoE5E5E6E4SE5444SE8
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Tide / Current Tables for Nauset Harbor, Cape Cod, Massachusetts
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Pollock Rip Channel, Massachusetts Current
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.