Saturday, October21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Orleans, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 5:50PM Saturday October 21, 2017 11:35 AM EDT (15:35 UTC) Moonrise 8:33AMMoonset 7:16PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ254 Coastal Waters From Provincetown Ma To Chatham Ma To Nantucket Ma Out 20 Nm- 1010 Am Edt Sat Oct 21 2017
Today..N winds around 5 kt, becoming sw with gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..S winds around 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Tue..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Areas of fog. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft, except 10 to 15 ft S and E of nantucket. Areas of fog. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft, except 11 to 16 ft S and E of nantucket. Areas of fog. Showers with a chance of tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Areas of fog. Showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 1010 Am Edt Sat Oct 21 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Strong high pressure will move east across the southern new england coastal waters today, then east of new england Sunday. A strong cold front approaches from the west late Tuesday. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Orleans CDP, MA
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location: 41.77, -69.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 211404
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
1004 am edt Sat oct 21 2017

Synopsis
High pressure centered over pennsylvania Saturday will move
offshore Sunday, bringing warm, dry weather to our region. A
cold front with possibly waves of low pressure will bring
showers to the area Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Drier and
cooler weather is expected for late in the week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
10 am update...

shallow cool surface layer from last night has mixed out thanks
to wsw winds. 10 am temps already jumped into the low and mid
60s across most of eastern ma and ri including boston to providence.

This will set the stage for another top ten day with temps on
their way into the mid and upper 70s, except closer to 70 along
the south coast including CAPE cod and the islands where ssw
winds off the ocean will keep these locales slightly cooler.

This is courtsey of deep layer ridge across pa ny into ontario
and quebec, providing dry NW flow aloft and associated
subsidence. 1028 mb surface high over central pa will advect
eastward to just south of new england. This will support ssw
winds across the area, however a seabreeze may briefly develop
from 11 am to 2 pm across the eastern ma coast before flipping
back to the ssw mid afternoon.

It will feel even warmer than the mid and upper 70s given full
sunshine and light winds. Very comfortable too with dew pts in
the 40s. Previous forecast captures these details so no major
changes planned with this update.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Sunday
Center of a high pressure continues to move east of southern
new england during this time. Dry weather with mostly clear
skies will continue, with only some passing high clouds at
times. South to southwest winds also continue, meaning
temperatures remain well above normal.

Long term Sunday night through Friday
Highlights...

* heavy showers and gusty winds are possible ahead of a cold front
Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday
there is strong consensus in medium range models that the strong
ridge over the eastern united states will break down for at least a
time this coming week. There is fairly high confidence in one more
warm, dry day on Monday as well as a high amplitude trough bringing
an anomalous plume of moisture and low level southerly jet into the
region for the Tuesday into Wednesday time frame. Thereafter,
confidence drops as medium range models begin to diverge with
respect to both mass and thermal fields for the latter part of the
week. Most of the focus for this forecast period is on the Tuesday
through Wednesday time frame.

Monday... Fairly confident of one more day with lots of sunshine and
an air mass capable of high temperatures again in the 70s. May start
to see some high clouds spill over the upper ridge during the
afternoon.

Tuesday through Wednesday... There is fairly good medium model
consensus and ensemble support for the approach of a high amplitude
upper trough and associated surface cold front approaching the east
coast. One or more surface waves of low pressure may form along this
slow moving front. A low level southerly jet of 50 to 60 knots is
anticipated for Tuesday night with precipitable waters of 1.5+
inches. Some instability is indicated in the models with k indices
above 30, showalters near to a little below zero, and even total
totals in the upper 40s. The instability combined with the low level
jet forcing in an anomalously moist air mass may set the stage for
heavy showers downpours as well as isolated embedded thunder. In
addition, a warm thrust in the lower levels may allow some mixing of
the low level jet energy to the surface, even if at at night. Thus,
gusty winds possibly strong enough for headlines may be also be an
issue. The initial surge will probably pass east or northeast of the
area during the day Wednesday with showers diminishing or ending
across at least most of the area.

Thursday... Have kept chance pops in the forecast due to upper trough
axis probably passing across with a cold pool aloft and to some
extent for the sake of forecast continuity. It is possible that any
showers Thursday may be widely scattered. The ECMWF 00z operational
run seems to have trended closer to the last couple of GFS runs.

Friday... For now Friday looks dry with the upper trough passing east
of the region and at least a short wave ridge moving across. Unlike
most of the month, we may see temperatures below normal with h850
temperatures likely only 0c to 4c. The latest ECMWF run is now more
in line with the GFS operational run and holds off the warm
advection until Saturday.

Aviation 14z Saturday through Wednesday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Sunday ... High confidence.

14z update...

not much change from 12z tafs. Only item to watch is potential
brief seabreeze for eastern ma coastline from 15z-18z when winds
will briefly switch from ssw to sse then flipping back to ssw
after 18z. Otherwise previous discussion below.

=================================================================
high pressure providesVFR, dry weather and relatively light
winds through Sunday. Main issue in the near term is if a sea
breeze is possible at bos and other east coast locations. The
surface gradient is certainly slack enough to suggest a sea
breeze but there looks to be enough vertical mixing to keep the
surface wind offshore, albeit light.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf.

Outlook Sunday night through Wednesday ...

Sunday night:VFR with local ifr in fog.

Monday:VFR.

Monday night:VFR, with local ifr possible in fog.

Tuesday... Conditions lowering to MVFR ceiling and visibilities in
showers spreading west to east.

Tuesday night... MVFR ceilings visibilities with areas of
ifr lifr in showers and fog. A period of low level wind shear
followed by strong southerly surface gusts possible.

Wednesday... Ifr persisting across the CAPE and islands.

Elsewhere, MVFR improving toVFR from west to east.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Sunday ... High confidence.

Very tranquil boating weather for late oct with high pressure
moving across the waters through Sat night. Expecting light
winds, dry weather and good vsby through this period.

Outlook Sunday night through Wednesday ... Moderate confidence.

Increasing southerly winds Tuesday may contain gale force gusts late
Tuesday through early Wednesday. Will mention in hwo. Seas in
excess of 12 feet possible in the outer southern coastal waters
due to long fetch of winds possibly gusting to gale force.

Fire weather
Dry weather continues through at least Sunday with minimum rh
values Saturday down to 25 to 35 percent. However with high
pressure nearby winds will be very light. Thus fire weather
parameters remaining below headline criteria.

Climate
Record high temperatures for Saturday, october 21:
bos 82 in 1920
bdl 82 in 1920
pvd 81 in 1920
orh 80 in 1920

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Belk thompson
near term... Belk nocera thompson
short term... Belk
long term... Thompson
aviation... Belk nocera thompson
marine... Belk thompson
fire weather... Staff
climate... Staff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44090 21 mi36 min 60°F1 ft
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 26 mi46 min SW 7.8 G 7.8 62°F 62°F1 ft1026.4 hPa (+1.1)57°F
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 34 mi111 min 1 63°F 1026 hPa50°F
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 35 mi48 min SSW 6 G 8.9 65°F 61°F1026.6 hPa
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 42 mi48 min 64°F 63°F1026.4 hPa

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chatham, Chatham Municipal Airport, MA6 mi44 minVar 510.00 miFair66°F48°F54%1026.8 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA19 mi40 minSSW 710.00 miFair65°F44°F47%1026.2 hPa
Provincetown Municipal Airport, MA22 mi40 minWSW 910.00 miFair65°F45°F49%1026.3 hPa

Wind History from CQX (wind in knots)
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NW944CalmCalmCalmW3NW3NW3NW3NW3NW3CalmNW3NW3CalmNW4CalmCalmS55
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2 days ago--5W6463CalmCalmSW3SW4SW3SW3SW4SW4SW3SW5SW6SW4SW4SW35SW6SW7SW10
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Tide / Current Tables for Nauset Harbor, Cape Cod, Massachusetts
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Nauset Harbor
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:15 AM EDT     6.30 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:37 AM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:33 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:27 PM EDT     6.63 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:16 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:05 PM EDT     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.66.36.15.34.22.91.40.30.20.92.345.66.56.55.84.73.31.80.4-0.20.21.32.8

Tide / Current Tables for Pollock Rip Channel, Massachusetts Current
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Pollock Rip Channel
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:51 AM EDT     -1.81 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:54 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:22 AM EDT     2.08 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 08:32 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:17 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:05 PM EDT     -1.82 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 05:11 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:16 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:42 PM EDT     2.15 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 11:43 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1-1.7-1.8-1.5-0.90.111.7221.40.3-0.8-1.6-1.8-1.7-1.1-0.20.81.62.12.11.70.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.