Sunday, August20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Orleans, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:54AMSunset 7:33PM Sunday August 20, 2017 5:08 PM EDT (21:08 UTC) Moonrise 4:25AMMoonset 6:55PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ254 Coastal Waters From Provincetown Ma To Chatham Ma To Nantucket Ma Out 20 Nm- 324 Pm Edt Sun Aug 20 2017
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 324 Pm Edt Sun Aug 20 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pres will build over the waters today through Mon. The high will move offshore Tue, allowing a cold front to approach Wed. Large high pres will begin to build over the region Thu. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Orleans CDP, MA
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location: 41.77, -69.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 202035
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
435 pm edt Sun aug 20 2017

Synopsis
High pressure builds over the region tonight and then offshore
Monday, providing dry and comfortable weather. Hot and humid
weather is forecast for Tuesday as the high moves farther
offshore. A cold front will approach the area late Tuesday, then
sweep across the region by mid-afternoon Wednesday, bringing the
risk of showers and thunderstorms. Any storms could produce
locally heavy rain and gusty winds. Skies clear out later
Wednesday. Then strong high pressure brings fall-like weather
with mainly sunny skies and clear nights Thursday through
Sunday... With highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
4 pm update...

thru sunset...

very pleasant conditions with temps in the low to mid 80s at 330 pm
along with downsloping wnw winds providing comfortable dew pts in
the upper 50s. Diurnal clouds erode as sunset approaches along with
wnw winds diminishing as blyr layer begins to decouple. Overall,
ideal late summer weather.

After sunset...

high pressure over pennsylvania builds eastward into region tonight.

This will provide light winds, mostly clear skies and a relatively
dry airmass to promote temps falling fairly quickly with and after
sunset. The most noticeable temp drop will be outside the urban
areas. Given this followed the cooler MOS temps to derive mins
overnight. Most locations outside the urban areas dip into the upper
50s tonight, thus very comfortable. For the cities temps fall back
into the low and mid 60s.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through Monday night
Updated 4 pm...

Monday...

after a cool start to the day return flow (sw winds) becomes
established by late morning as high pres slips offshore. Low level
waa results in slightly warmer and more humid conditions tomorrow
with highs in the mid to upper 80s away from the south coast. Dew
pts still tolerable (u50s to l60s) as warm sector airmass remains
west-southwest of new england.

Dry weather prevails along with mostly sunny conditions. Thus good
viewing of the solar eclipse (just remember to wear safe glasses)!
could be some mid and high clouds arriving late in the day across
western ma ct, but by then the eclipse will have ended.

Monday night...

low amplitude lead short wave and attending warm sector approach
from the west. Convection over pa ny nj late Monday likely
weakens dissipates as it approaches southern new england given loss
of daytime heating and weak mid level lapse rates. Nonetheless low
pops will be included in the forecast to account for any leftover
showers especially western ma ct.

Much warmer and humid than previous nights given warm sector
overspreads the area. This may be accompanied by stratus patchy fog
and possibly spotty light drizzle.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
Big picture...

at upper levels, closed low pressure will be moving slowly
across canada, from west of james bay Tuesday to eastern quebec
by Saturday. The trough axis extending southward from the low
will remain to our west until Saturday. The cold pool of air
will arrive over our region around Thursday and remain in place
into next weekend. A weak ridge begins to build over the area on
Sunday, as the trough finally exits.

At the surface, high pressure will pass southeast of the region
Tuesday. A cold front moves through Wednesday. Then strong high
pressure builds over the great lakes states, with its influence
extending eastward into new england Thursday into Saturday.

The strong high pressure becomes centered around new brunswick
on Sunday.

As the previous forecaster noted, there has been a tendency for
the canadian model to generate a tropical system off the
southeast coast of the u.S. Then head northeast towards us for
the past several runs. Now, the ukmet, gfs, and to some extent
the ECMWF all show the potential for tropical development late
in the week, off the florida coast. However, the significant
change is that they all now focus the northeastward movement
more along a persistent frontal boundary that currently exists
several hundred miles south of new england. That would appear to
make more meteorological sense, as tropical systems sometimes do
form on the tail end of old frontal boundaries. The strong high
pressure over the northeast states is expected to dominate our
weather. However, it is possible that late next weekend there
could be increasing potential for rip currents once again on
southern beaches. Anyway, that's a week away.

Details...

Tuesday...

summer is back. It will be hot and humid as high pressure
shifts offshore and southwest breezes increase, well in advance
of an approaching cold front. With 925 mb temperatures reaching
25-26c and a good deal of sunshine, expecting highs to soar to
90-95. Dewpoints will be rising to near 70 by late afternoon and
heat indices will be reach the mid 90s. Our new criteria for
heat advisories is 95 degrees, but it needs to be for 2
consecutive days, unless it hits 100, which would only require
1 day. Since it will probably not be reached on Monday, we may
issue a special weather statement to draw attention to it, as
opposed to a heat advisory.

Southwest winds increase to 30-40 kts at 925 mb Tue afternoon,
so expect gusts at the surface to 20-25 mph at times, especially
in southeast ma and ri. CAPE is maximized over ny state, well
to our west, close to the cold front and that is where the best
potential exists for strong severe thunderstorm activity.

However, a few showers and thunderstorms could form over the
higher terrain of western ma and northwest ct in the mid-late
afternoon hours.

Tuesday night...

precipitable water values increase to 2.0 to 2.2 inches across
the region Tue night, becoming maximized in eastern sections
toward daybreak. We will have lost some heating as the front
moves into western sections Tue night. Nevertheless the 12z ecmwf
keeps 1000+ j kg CAPE overnight. There will be increasing wind
fields aloft, mainly unidirectional. The storm prediction center
has a "marginal risk" of severe weather the western part of our
area. Expect that we will mainly have remnants of the strong
convection that had been to our west southwest during the day,
but there should be some new development as well. Any storm
could produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Any
training of storms or clusters of storms could lead to a
flooding flash flooding threat.

Wednesday...

cold front swings across southern new england. Timing is still in
question, but consensus would have the front exiting the coast
in the afternoon. Southern new england will be in the right rear
quadrant of a 300 mb jet MAX of 100-110 kts, which would be
favorable for strong thunderstorm development, especially given
high pw values still in place in eastern ma and ri through early
afternoon. Skies will become mostly sunny from west to east
during the mid and late afternoon. Highs in the 80s.

Thursday through Saturday...

high pressure builds in at the surface while an upper trough digs
south from quebec. The trough will carry a cold pool with cold
advection aloft on Thursday and Friday. Temperatures at 500 mb
will minimize at around -16c early Saturday morning. Moisture
fields show a moist layer between 850 and 700 mb during this
period, but dry air above and below. This looks like a mostly
sunny and dry pattern, but the instability shows some potential
for a few showers on Saturday. The mixed layer reaches to
between 850 and 800 mb, with temps at the top of the layer
supporting MAX sfc temps in the 70s... Giving a fall-like feel.

Overnight low temperatures will be in the 50s each night.

Sunday...

high pressure becomes centered over new brunswick. Sunny, cool
weather will continue across southern new england with highs in
the 70s and northeast to east wind flow. It is possible that
southernmost coastal waters could see increasing swell and
potential rip currents if there is any tropical development
several hundred miles south of the region.

Aviation 21z Sunday through Friday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Monday night ...

2 pm update...

thru sunset...

vfr with any CIGS bkn050. Dry weather and modest wnw winds.

After sunset...

diurnal clouds erode withVFR prevails. Dry runways and light
wnw winds becoming calm. Patchy MVFR fog possible across
interior valleys.

Monday...

vfr and winds becoming sw. Afternoon t-storms across ny pa
should diminish before entering western ma ct late in the day.

Monday night...

vfr to start but lowering to MVFR and or ifr as low clouds and
fog overspread the area after midnight and especially toward tue
morning. Low risk of spotty light drizzle late.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf.

Outlook Tuesday through Friday ...

Tuesday into early Wednesday afternoon... Moderate confidence.

Vfr except areas of MVFR ifr in showers and scattered strong
thunderstorms mainly Tuesday night and Wednesday morning to
early afternoon. Patchy fog.

Later Wednesday afternoon through Friday... High confidence.

Vfr. The only exception will be patchy ifr in fog Wednesday
night and early Thursday morning.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Monday night ... High confidence.

4 pm update...

tonight...

modest west winds become light and variable overnight. Good vsby and
dry weather prevails.

Monday...

high pres moves offshore yielding modest SW winds. Dry weather and
good vsby continue.

Monday night...

modest SW winds continue and will likely be accompanied by low
clouds patchy fog along with a low risk for spotty drizzle. Thus
vsby may be reduced at times especially southern waters.

Outlook Tuesday through Friday ...

Tuesday... High confidence.

High pressure shifts east of the waters. Winds 20 knots or less, and
seas 4 feet or less.

Tuesday night-Wednesday... Moderate confidence.

A cold front approaches from the great lakes, crossing the waters
late Wednesday afternoon. Showers and scattered thunderstorms
will move across the waters Tuesday night and Wednesday, with
locally heavy rain and gusty winds.

Southwest winds increase with gusts 25 knots. Winds shift from
southwest to northwest Wednesday night and diminish to 15 knots
or less. Seas build Tuesday night and Wednesday reaching 5 to 6
foot heights on the outer waters. The southwest flow may also
nudge those higher seas into ri sound as well. Once the cold
front moves through and winds become northwest, seas will
subside to 3 feet or less Wednesday night.

A small craft advisory may be needed on some of the waters Tuesday
night and Wednesday.

Thursday-Friday... High confidence.

Generally light north to northeast wind flow with seas
below 3 ft.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Nocera field
near term... Nocera
short term... Nocera
long term... Field
aviation... Nocera field
marine... Nocera field


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44090 21 mi35 min 73°F1 ft
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 26 mi79 min WSW 14 G 16 73°F 71°F1 ft1014.9 hPa (+0.0)73°F
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 34 mi84 min 4.1 81°F 1015 hPa65°F
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 35 mi51 min WNW 7 G 11 1015.6 hPa
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 42 mi51 min 77°F 73°F1015.4 hPa

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chatham, Chatham Municipal Airport, MA6 mi77 minVar 310.00 miPartly Cloudy81°F62°F53%1015.5 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA19 mi73 minNNE 410.00 miA Few Clouds81°F62°F53%1014.9 hPa
Provincetown Municipal Airport, MA22 mi73 minN 510.00 miFair80°F63°F56%1015.1 hPa

Wind History from CQX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6SW8SW5SW3SW4SW34SW4CalmSW4SW4SW5SW4Calm454NW7NW744Calm3Calm
1 day ago4666
G14
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SW6SW7SW4SW4SW5SW6SW4S64NW34SW5SW7S7SW6
2 days agoSW84SW6SW7SW4S4SW5SW6SW4SW3S4S4S34355S8S9
G17
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G15
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Tide / Current Tables for Nauset Harbor, Cape Cod, Massachusetts
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Nauset Harbor
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:25 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:16 AM EDT     -0.68 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:10 AM EDT     6.30 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:31 PM EDT     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:54 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:27 PM EDT     7.21 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
6.253.51.80.2-0.6-0.40.72.34.25.76.365.242.51-0.1-0.10.92.54.46.17.1

Tide / Current Tables for Pollock Rip Channel, Massachusetts Current
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Pollock Rip Channel
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:11 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:26 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:50 AM EDT     2.20 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:54 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 11:42 AM EDT     -1.72 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 02:47 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:14 PM EDT     1.96 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 06:54 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:07 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.6-1.1-0.20.81.62.12.21.91-0.1-1.1-1.6-1.7-1.4-0.70.21.11.71.91.81.20.1-1-1.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.