Tuesday, November21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Brewster, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:37AMSunset 4:17PM Tuesday November 21, 2017 12:42 PM EST (17:42 UTC) Moonrise 10:08AMMoonset 7:54PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ231 Cape Cod Bay- 1107 Am Est Tue Nov 21 2017
.gale warning in effect through this evening...
This afternoon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 35 kt, decreasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of rain.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 1107 Am Est Tue Nov 21 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pres off the mid-atlantic coast will yield weak southwest gales across the waters this afternoon and tonight. A cold front will move across the waters Wed afternoon and be followed by gusty northwest winds into Wed night. High pres builds over the waters Thu and Fri. Unsettled weather returns on Sat as low pres moves east across southern quebec. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brewster, MA
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location: 41.77, -70.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 211727
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
1227 pm est Tue nov 21 2017

Synopsis
Mild this afternoon as winds pick up out of the southwest. A
cold front approaches the region tonight, and will combine with
moisture working up the eastern seaboard to bring a period of
rain through Wednesday morning, especially SE new england. Dry
and colder conditions expected Wednesday night through the end
of this week. Milder with a few showers possible Saturday as a
cold front approaches, then blustery and colder weather follows
Sunday into Monday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Building southern stream ridge along the eastern seaboard, while
northern stream trough digs over the great lakes. This points to
an increasing southwest flow and warm advection.

Cross sections show mixing to 950 mb on the 12z NAM and 06z gfs.

Temperatures at that level are equiv to -2c to -4c at 850 mb,
which would support MAX temps in the 50s. Morning soundings from
chatham and upton ny suggest potential to mix as high as 900 mb,
but resulting in a similar MAX temp potential. Winds in the
mixed layer show 25 knots in observed data and 30-35 knots in
forecast data.

So no changes in the forecast... A sunny day with patchy cirrus.

Max temps in the 50s, possibly 60 in spots. Southwest winds
gusting to 30 knots 35 mph and possibly to 35 knots 40 mph.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Wednesday
Dry weather to start tonight ahead of approaching cold front
from the west. High pressure to the east of the region will help
increase southerly low level moisture off the ocean. This flow
will increase low level moisture and thus some isolated showers
after 2 am across the south coast.

Upper level shortwave will help push the front closer to the
region during the early morning hours. While moisture appears to
be meager with this front, the focus is more on the coastal low
which will develop off the coast of the carolinas. Moisture
from this low will stream into the region resulting in pwat
values increasing to 1 inch which is 1-2 std above normal.

Appears that the 2 systems will remain split from each other,
however the interactions between the upper and low level jets
will help increase lift across the region. In fact, some model
guidance suggest strong lift around daybreak which could lead to
heavy downpours which will impact the Wed morning commute.

Still a spread in where the heavy axis will be located with the
ec and rgem on the western envelope compared to hi- res guidance
and nam. The GFS continues to the eastern outlier and thus
trended away from it. Right now appears the the axis of heavier
rainfall will occur across the i-95 corridor and points
eastward. However this axis could still shift if the two streams
do meet up, of if coastal low trends farther eastward.

Regardless, looks like a good slug of rain with QPF amounts
around 0.5-1 inch. These amounts could also increase within any
thunderstorms. Went ahead and inserted a slight chc of thunder
as dewpoints reach into the 50s and models continue to show some
surface cape. Highest confidence will be across the CAPE and
the islands.

Conditions will quickly improve from west to east during the
day on Wednesday. In fact, once the cold front moves through the
region, dry air will quickly usher into the region resulting in
clearing skies and dry weather. CAA will spill into the area
resulting in temperatures to fall during the day. NW winds will
also be on the increase as wind gusts increase to 25-30 mph by
the afternoon.

Long term Wednesday night through Monday
Highlights...

* mainly dry and cool thanksgiving day and Friday
* milder with a chance of showers Saturday
* blustery and colder Sunday Monday
21 00z guidance suite remains in rather good agreement on the
overall pattern through this portion of the forecast. In
general, looking at a persistent mid level trough lingering near
our region, although the amplitude and axis varies with time as
various shortwaves move through the flow. This should mean
temperatures trending below normal, especially late this weekend
into early next week.

Dry weather likely to persist into Friday, despite a cold front
getting close to the northern ma border Friday. The most
supportive moisture and dynamics for showers are expected to
remain over northern new england. Our next chance for
precipitation looks to be sometime this weekend. It's not
looking like a great risk, as humidity levels are somewhat
lacking. However, there are a couple of fronts to move through,
so this potential will need to be watched over the coming days.

Colder air arriving Sunday into Monday could generate some
ocean-effect showers toward the coast.

Aviation 17z Tuesday through Saturday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Wednesday ... High confidence.

Through tonight...

vfr through at least early morning, with MVFR CIGS and ra
arriving mainly after 09z from the s. Areas W of a line from
ijd-orh-mht may keepVFR CIGS through sunrise. Winds remain sw,
with gusts 25-35 kt through this evening then gradually
dissipating overnight.

Tomorrow...

mixed MVFR ifr CIGS through the day tomorrow with ra and vsbys
1-3sm at times, especially E of the same line (ijd-orh-mht).

Areas W may remain mixed MVFRVFR with less ra. The rain clears,
and rapid improvement toVFR occurs after 18z from w-e as winds
shift to the nw.

Tomorrow night...

vfr. NW flow around 10 kt.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in overall TAF trends, timing of
lower categories early am may be off by an hour or two. Clearing
occurs mainly after 20z tomorrow.

Kbdl terminal... Moderate confidence in taf. Uncertainty in MVFR
cigs as CIGS could remain lowVFR and bulk of the ra remains e.

Outlook Thursday through Saturday ...

thanksgiving day through Friday:VFR.

Friday night:VFR. Breezy.

Saturday:VFR. Breezy. Slight chance shra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Wednesday ... High confidence.

This afternoon... Building seas across the region as low level
winds increase ahead of an approaching cold front. Southwest
wind gusts 30 to 35 knots with potential for 40 knots... This
will mean borderline gales possible. No changes to the existing
gale headlines... Winds increasing this afternoon.

Tonight into Wednesday... Southwesterly gales will continue but
subside across the near shore waters. SCA will be needed as seas
will remain above 5 feet and gusts near 30kts. Approaching cold
front will bring widespread rain for the waters and limit vsbys
by Wed morning. Front will sweep through Wed afternoon
switching winds to the NW with gusts near 30 kts by Wed evening.

Outlook Wednesday night through Saturday ...

Wednesday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
local gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Thanksgiving day: winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Thursday night through Friday night: winds less than 25 kt.

Seas up to 5 ft.

Saturday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance
of rain showers.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Gale warning until midnight est tonight for anz231>235-237-250-
251-254>256.

Gale warning until 6 pm est this evening for anz230-236.

Synopsis... Belk dunten
near term... Wtb
short term... Dunten
long term... Belk
aviation... Belk doody
marine... Wtb belk dunten


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44090 14 mi43 min 51°F4 ft
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 24 mi53 min SW 19 G 23 54°F 50°F2 ft1020.2 hPa (-1.4)47°F
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 27 mi58 min 6 57°F 1020 hPa42°F
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 34 mi43 min SW 11 G 22 57°F 47°F1021 hPa (-1.3)
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 36 mi43 min 55°F 49°F1020.1 hPa (-1.5)

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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NW14
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W15
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SW8
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chatham, Chatham Municipal Airport, MA7 mi51 minSW 11 G 2010.00 miFair57°F45°F64%1020.4 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA12 mi1.8 hrsSSW 15 G 2410.00 miFair57°F41°F55%1020.1 hPa
Provincetown Municipal Airport, MA18 mi1.8 hrsSW 19 G 2610.00 miFair and Breezy56°F41°F57%1019.8 hPa

Wind History from CQX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW11
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W7SW55W7
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W7W5W4W5W7W5W5SW4SW5SW7SW7SW5SW75
G15
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1 day agoSW11
G27
W13
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W14
G26
W7
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5W65W6W6
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2 days ago3S4S4S6S4S8S6S7
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SW14
G28

Tide / Current Tables for Sesuit Harbor, East Dennis, Cape Cod Bay, Massachusetts
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Sesuit Harbor
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:42 AM EST     9.42 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:34 AM EST     0.86 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:37 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:07 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:46 PM EST     10.31 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:15 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:54 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 07:05 PM EST     0.14 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
9.19.48.56.94.82.71.112.24.16.28.49.910.39.47.75.53.11.10.10.72.24.16.2

Tide / Current Tables for Pollock Rip Channel, Massachusetts Current
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Pollock Rip Channel
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:42 AM EST     -1.65 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:49 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:36 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:10 AM EST     1.78 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 09:06 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:08 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 01:50 PM EST     -1.74 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:15 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 04:59 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:54 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 08:30 PM EST     2.06 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 11:43 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1-1.5-1.6-1.3-0.70.211.61.81.71.10.2-0.9-1.6-1.7-1.5-0.900.91.7221.60.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.