Wednesday, October17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sandwich, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 5:57PM Wednesday October 17, 2018 5:52 AM EDT (09:52 UTC) Moonrise 2:42PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 54% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sandwich CDP, MA
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location: 41.78, -70.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 170801
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
400 am edt Wed oct 17 2018

Synopsis
A cold front moves across the region this afternoon with some
brief scattered showers and gusty winds... Followed by the coldest
air of this young fall season tonight and Thursday along with windy
conditions. Cooler than average temperatures persist through the end
of the week into the weekend. A shot of some showery weather ahead
of a sweeping cold front Saturday. Breezy conditions at times.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
4 am update...

* brief period of 35-45 mph wind gusts may result in a few
downed trees isolated power outages between 2 and 8 pm today
a chilly start early this morning with temperatures down into
the 30s and lower 40s across the region. Plenty of sunshine this
morning along with gusty west to southwest winds developing by
afternoon will allow for a nice recovery. Afternoon high
temperatures should reach the middle to upper 50s across the
high terrain, while the rest of the region should see high
temperatures reach between 60 and 65.

A strong shortwave cold front will approach from the west this
afternoon. The result will be a scattered to broken deck of
cloudiness overspreading the region. While moisture is rather
limited... There should be enough forcing for a brief band of
scattered showers. A pretty quick drop in temperatures will
also occur behind this cold front. That combination and decent
pressure rises behind the front may result in a brief period of
35 to 45 mph wind gusts. Given fully leafed trees... The risk for
a few downed tree limbs and isolated power outages. Opted to
issue a special weather statement to highlight this potential.

Greatest time of concern is between 2 and 8 pm this evening.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Thursday
* unseasonably cold tonight and Thursday
* wind headlines possible later tonight into Thu am
tonight...

an unseasonably cold airmass will be ushered into the region on
gusty northwest winds tonight. A few left over sprinkles or
perhaps even a few high terrain snow flurries will be possible
this evening. Otherwise... 850t dropping to between -8c and -10c
will result in a cold night. Low temperatures by daybreak will
range from the upper 20s across the high terrain... To the lower
to middle 30s elsewhere. While the wind will stay up to prevent
the need for any frost headlines... We have issued a freeze
watch for areas expected to drop near or just below freezing
where the growing season has not officially ended. Opted to go
with the watch as opposed to a warning given temperatures will
be marginal and wanted to let the next shift get a look.

As for winds... Expect northwest wind gusts of 25 to 40 mph at
times. Some guidance shows these winds diminishing a bit this
evening behind the cold front... But picking back up after
midnight. We did issue a wind advisory for the
cape nantucket... Where confidence was highest in criteria being
met with NW winds blowing over the relatively mild waters. Will need
to watch the worcester hills too and even the lower elevations as
850 mb winds increase to between 40 and 50 knots. These strong
winds can sometimes mix down in these setups... So an expansion to
the headlines might be needed. Concern is greater this time of year
given fully leafed trees. Regardless... The gusty winds will make it
feel quite cold with wind chills in the upper teens to middle 20s by
daybreak Thursday.

Thursday...

a blustery and unseasonably chilly day is on tap for the region.

Despite plenty of sunshine... An anomalously chilly airmass will
hold highs in the lower 40s across the higher terrain with upper
40s elsewhere. It will remain rather windy with northwest wind gusts
of 25 to 40 mph and perhaps up to 45 mph in some locations during
the morning.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
* highlights...

- touch of winter at times into the weekend, sub-freezing lows
- breezy conditions possible throughout warranting wind headlines
- average temperatures throughout below seasonable
* overview...

shots of colder air ahead. NE atlantic anti-cyclonic wave break that
evolves into an omega block. Progressive N hemispheric pattern other-
wise. Through a preferred reloading NE N america h5 trof, individual
impulses develop into deep storms as they obtain greater curvature
angular momentum across greenland into iceland. +ao, the arctic door
is open. Behind aforementioned deepening lows, expecting equatorward
cold air shots ushered by anomalously strong isallobaric pressure-
gradient forced low-level surface-h925 cold air advection, dropping
s roughly -1 to -2 standard deviation h85 temperature airmasses. Do
agree with the prior forecaster, the -epo +pna trend only aids in
the downstream h5 trof preference through which cross-polar flow and
+ao gives us our first touch of winter.

* discussion...

so watching closely for frost freezing conditions, as well as any
conditions that would warrant wind-headlines. Thursday night and
Sunday night especially with respect to cold-weather related head-
lines, watching for wind threats and impacts Saturday into Sunday.

Any outcomes associated with sweeping frontal boundaries, Saturday
especially, along which airmasses are more continental-polar, void
of deeper moisture. Cold, showery outcomes, mainly Saturday, that
are scattered to broken, hardly a washout. Otherwise the remainder
of the forecast is mostly dry with some warm rebounds in-between.

Preference to MOS guidance for 2m temperatures.

Aviation 07z Wednesday through Sunday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday ...

today... High confidence.VFR... But briefly localized lower
conditions are possible this afternoon and early evening in a
brief band of scattered showers. W wind gusts of 25 to 35 knots
develop this afternoon... Perhaps even briefly a bit stronger in
any showers.

Tonight... High confidence.VFR conditions. Northwest wind gusts
of 20 to 30 knots persist... But between 35 and 40 knots across
portions of the high terrain as well as the outer-
cape nantucket.

Thursday... High confidence.VFR conditions with northwest wind
gusts of 25 to 30 knots... But up to 35 knots along portions of
the coast and high terrain during the first part of the day.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf.

Outlook Thursday night through Sunday ... Moderate-high confidence.

Thursday night:VFR. Windy with local gusts to 30 kt.

Friday:VFR. Breezy.

Friday night:VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Slight chance
shra.

Saturday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Chance shra.

Saturday night through Sunday:VFR. Breezy.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday ...

today through Thursday... High confidence. A cold front cross
the waters late today. The result will be west winds increasing
to between 30 and 40 knots this afternoon. Gale force NW wind
gusts tonight into Thursday afternoon as strong cold air
advection over the relatively mild ocean will support excellent
mixing. Gale headlines remain posted for all waters... Except
strong small craft headlines for narragansett bay. Later shifts
may have to consider upgrading this zone too given the amount of
mixing that will be generated over the very mild waters.

Outlook Thursday night through Sunday ... Moderate to high
Thursday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.

Friday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Friday night: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain
showers.

Saturday: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt.

Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers.

Saturday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain
showers.

Sunday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Climate
Record low maximum temperatures for Thursday october 18
bos 45 in 1898
orh 36 in 1989
bdl 44 in 2009
pvd 46 in 1939

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... Freeze watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for
ctz002>004.

Ma... Freeze watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for
maz005-006-009>013.

Wind advisory from 5 pm this afternoon to 11 am edt Thursday
for maz022-024.

Ri... Freeze watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for
riz001.

Marine... Gale warning from 2 pm this afternoon to 4 pm edt Thursday
for anz230>235-237-250-251-254>256.

Small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 8 pm edt
Thursday for anz236.

Synopsis... Frank sipprell
near term... Frank
short term... Frank
long term... Sipprell
aviation... Frank sipprell
marine... Frank sipprell
climate... Staff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44090 9 mi53 min 60°F2 ft
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 14 mi68 min Calm 46°F 1015 hPa38°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 20 mi35 min 54°F 63°F1014.8 hPa
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 23 mi33 min W 14 G 19 55°F 63°F1015 hPa38°F
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 35 mi63 min WSW 12 G 14 51°F 3 ft1014.4 hPa (-1.1)38°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 36 mi41 min 48°F 63°F1015.3 hPa
FRXM3 37 mi35 min 47°F 37°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 37 mi35 min S 6 G 8 49°F 1014.9 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 39 mi53 min W 18 G 20 54°F 1015.5 hPa (-1.2)
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 40 mi63 min SW 12 G 14 49°F 59°F2 ft1013.7 hPa (-1.1)41°F
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 40 mi35 min WNW 5.1 G 8 53°F 60°F1015.1 hPa
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 46 mi41 min W 4.1 G 8 47°F 1014.9 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 46 mi35 min SW 8 G 8.9 46°F 60°F1014.8 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 46 mi68 min WSW 2.9 45°F 1015 hPa39°F
PVDR1 47 mi35 min SSE 2.9 G 5.1 44°F 1014.6 hPa38°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 48 mi41 min SSW 2.9 G 4.1 42°F 62°F1014.2 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 48 mi35 min W 8.9 G 12 59°F1014.7 hPa

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA9 mi58 minN 010.00 miFair43°F35°F76%1015.6 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA13 mi57 minNE 310.00 miFair36°F34°F93%1014.9 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA16 mi61 minN 010.00 miFair39°F36°F89%1015 hPa
Provincetown Municipal Airport, MA22 mi57 minWSW 910.00 miFair48°F39°F74%1014.8 hPa
Marshfield Airport, MA24 mi58 minWSW 410.00 miFair41°F37°F87%1014.6 hPa

Wind History from FMH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW17
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SW6SW7W3W8W8W10W10W6W4W4W3CalmCalm
1 day ago------S5S6S7S17S12S8S13----SW18SW18SW18
G26
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2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal (East Entrance), Massachusetts
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Cape Cod Canal (East Entrance)
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Wed -- 06:09 AM EDT     7.67 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:14 PM EDT     1.98 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:41 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 06:22 PM EDT     8.30 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.834.35.777.77.46.65.54.22.822.33.34.667.48.28.17.26.14.73.1

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:59 AM EDT     3.60 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 04:39 AM EDT     -0.02 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:15 AM EDT     -3.59 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 10:25 AM EDT     0.03 knots Slack
Wed -- 01:21 PM EDT     3.22 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 02:41 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:45 PM EDT     -0.03 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:37 PM EDT     -3.79 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 10:52 PM EDT     0.12 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.43.63.432.1-1.6-3-3.6-3.4-2.8-1.61.82.83.23.12.82.1-1.3-2.9-3.7-3.7-3.3-2.30.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.