Monday, January22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Stony Point, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:52AMSunset 5:38PM Monday January 22, 2018 2:49 PM EST (19:49 UTC) Moonrise 10:56AMMoonset 11:13PM Illumination 35% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ162 Lake Erie Open Waters From Ripley To Buffalo Ny- Lake Erie Open Waters From Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Reno Beach To The Islands Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on-the-lake Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 945 Am Est Mon Jan 22 2018
This afternoon..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers. The lake is mostly ice covered.
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. Rain showers.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Rain showers likely in the morning, then a chance of rain and snow showers in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..West winds to 30 knots becoming northwest 15 to 25 knots. A chance of snow showers.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day.
Thursday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Waves omitted due to the lake being mostly ice covered.
LEZ162 Expires:201801222130;;830326 FZUS61 KCLE 221445 GLFLE Open Lake Forecast for Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland OH 945 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Erie Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure 29.50 inches will track across the central Great Lakes tonight pulling a cold front across Lake Erie by daybreak Tuesday. A secondary cold front will follow late Tuesday afternoon and evening. High pressure 30.40 inches will build across the western lakes Wednesday and across the eastern lakes Thursday. A warm front will lift north across the lake on Friday. LEZ061-162>169-222130-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stony Point, MI
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location: 41.8, -83.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 221744
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1244 pm est Mon jan 22 2018

Synopsis
A warm front will lift north across the forecast area today
producing scattered showers and well above normal temperatures. A
strong cold front will move across the area tonight ushering in more
seasonal conditions.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
A few minor changes to pops for this afternoon as area of
showers pushes into the forecast area. Expecting shower activity
to be light and increasingly scattered through the afternoon,
but went with some likely pops east given radar trends. Main
change to the forecast is to up high temperatures a bit given
the large hourly jumps through the morning. This area of precip
and increasing cloud cover will help curtail additional warming
with highs in some areas already achieved for the day. However,
upper 50s to near 60 will be common outside of the precip
through the rest of the day.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Thursday night
Models continue to move a low pressure system, now near kansas city,
across the central great lakes early Tuesday. Expect rain to spread
across the forecast area overnight ahead of the system the low will
track NE across the central lakes early Tuesday, forcing another
cold front across the forecast area. High temperatures for the day
will be in the morning with slowly falling temps during the
afternoon. Rain will begin to transition to rain snow mix or
plain snow by Tuesday evening. Transition will be so late do not
expect much in the way of accumulation on Tuesday.

The short term begins Tuesday night with models showing low pressure
in SRN quebec and new england with wrap around moisture and cold
advection across the area. Temps at 850mb average around -7 to -8c
on the NAM and ECMWF but are a couple degrees warmer on the gfs.

Either way this will be low enough for snow showers across the area
with the best chance of course in the snowbelt. Expect snow showers
to persist through Wednesday and into Wednesday night in the
snowbelt. Thursday high pressure will build in from the south. For
now will continue dry with partly cloudy skies but confidence level
is a bit below 100 percent given we will be experiencing warm
advection overrunning. As long as airmass is as dry as advertised
partly cloudy will hold. Friday continue to look nice with a
building upper ridge, high pressure to our east and dry air in
place. Expect Wednesday and Thursday near normal Friday above normal
with highs in the 40s.

Long term Friday through Sunday
The long term trend shows an upper trough to our west and eventually
moving through the great lakes and ohio valley on Monday.

Confidence, mainly in timing is lower given differences in the new
runs vs yday. Models now show less amplification with the system
through the period resulting in a more progressive system vs a more
extended period of precipitation. The GFS is faster with the
moisture bring rain into the area Friday night. Both agree on
Saturday being wet although the GFS being faster dries the west in
the afternoon. Sunday best precip chances will be east although
will continue with chance pops elsewhere. Monday with cold air in
place will have pops for lake effect snow. Saturday temps above
normal dropping to near or a bit below normal on Monday.

Aviation 18z Monday through Saturday
Scattered showers are possible this afternoon into this evening
from west to east across the area, however conditions will
mainly beVFR. More showers are possible this evening through
the overnight as low pressure tracks towards the area. MVFR
ceilings are expected for a time overnight, with some MVFR
visibility reductions in the showers as well, however widespread
ifr not anticipated at this point. MVFR ceilings will continue
through the morning on Tuesday, with additional shra changing to
a mix snow just after this TAF period. Southerly winds will
become gusty through this evening, becoming southwest overnight
into Tuesday with gusts to 30 kts possible.

Outlook... Non-vfr Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday,
especially across the snow belt.

Marine
No headlines expected through the forecast period although we do get
close to southwest gales Tuesday evening. For today into tonight
expect south southeast flow turning southwest towards morning
Tuesday. Speeds generally 10 to 15 knots. Tuesday southwest flow
will increase through the day to near 30 knots by evening as low
pressure moves northeast through the central lakes. Winds will turn
northwest behind the low decreasing to 10 to 20 knots by Wednesday
morning. Winds will decrease further wedneday night and Thursday as
high pressure moves over the lakes. Friday look for south winds
increasing to around 15 knots as high pressure covers the eastern
seaboard and low pressure approaches the northern lakes.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Djb
near term... Greenawalt
short term... Djb tk
long term... Adams tk
aviation... Greenawalt
marine... Tk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 6 mi50 min S 17 G 18 48°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 17 mi50 min S 22 G 23 53°F 1006.7 hPa (-3.2)
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 22 mi50 min S 12 G 15 54°F 1005.3 hPa (-4.1)44°F
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 26 mi50 min S 7 G 16 56°F 1007.5 hPa (-3.1)45°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 40 mi50 min SSW 17 G 25 60°F 1006.1 hPa (-3.4)
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH 42 mi65 min SSW 5.1 61°F 1008 hPa45°F
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 48 mi50 min SE 4.1 G 6 36°F 1006.4 hPa (-4.1)

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Monroe, Custer Airport, MI21 mi71 minSSW 15 G 1910.00 miOvercast56°F44°F67%1005.8 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI21 mi55 minS 510.00 miOvercast40°F37°F94%1005.8 hPa

Wind History from ONZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SE5SE7SE6S8S5S5S6
1 day agoSW6SW6SW4SW4SW4CalmS4SW3CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmS4S5S4CalmS3S6S3S3CalmCalm
2 days agoSW11SW7SW10--SW11SW15
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.