Wednesday, June28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Stony Point, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:59AMSunset 9:14PM Wednesday June 28, 2017 3:07 PM EDT (19:07 UTC) Moonrise 10:12AMMoonset 11:38PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ162 Lake Erie Open Waters From Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Reno Beach To The Islands Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- 913 Am Edt Wed Jun 28 2017
This afternoon..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 6 feet.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 15 knots. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LEZ162 Expires:201706282015;;952260 FZUS61 KCLE 281313 GLFLE Open Lake Forecast for Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland OH 913 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Erie Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure 30.20 inches over West Virginia will move off the Mid Atlantic Coast this afternoon. A warm front will develop over the Mississippi Valley and move across the western Great Lakes tonight and the eastern Great Lakes Thursday. Low pressure 29.50 inches will develop over the upper midwest on Friday and move north of the Great Lakes over the weekend sending a cold front across Lake Erie Saturday. High pressure 30.10 inches will build over the western lakes Sunday. LEZ162>166-282015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stony Point, MI
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location: 41.8, -83.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 281701
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
101 pm edt Wed jun 28 2017

Synopsis
High pressure over the upper ohio valley will slide SE and move
off the east coast this evening. This will allow a warm front to
lift NE across the area Thursday. The front will stall and
linger over the local area into Friday and become the focus of
convection.

Near term through Thursday
No additional changes from the earlier update.

Original discussion...

high pressure centered over the upper ohio valley will keep the area
dry through the forecast period. The high will slide SE today
setting up a swly flow and a warming trend for the forecast
area. Temps will warm into the mid to upper 70s in the east and
near 80 in the west.

The high pressure will move off the east coast today. This will
allow a warm front to lift NE across the area on Thursday.

Models still not in good agreement on the exact timing of the
front. Front expected to stall across the forecast area but
still some doubt as to exactly where front will stall out.

Expect thunderstorms to develop Thursday afternoon and evening.

Spc has western 2 3 of the forecast area in a slight risk for
severe and the remainder of the area under marginal risk. Capes
rise to 1200 j kg in the east and around 2000 j kg in the west.

Marginal shear as the 925mb winds increase to around 35 knots.

Plus since the front will be lying west to east could see some
training of thunderstorms which could produce some localized
flooding potential.

Short term Thursday night through Saturday night
The trough that has been developing over the high plains will move
east to the great lakes as we head into the weekend. A strong low
level jet combined with a brisk jet aloft lingering over the great
lakes will lead to a series of thunderstorm complexes crossing the
great lakes Thursday Thursday night into Saturday. This complicates
the forecast since thunderstorm development will occur on outflow
boundaries and mesoscale features and not necessarily the synoptic
pattern.

With the 850 mb jet over the lower great lakes Thursday night, will
have "likely" pops near lake erie with lesser pops father south.

Not sure how much convection may occur on Friday. The low level jet
is progged to lighten and the front remains well to the west but the
gfs is progging sfc capes near 4k with small moderate amounts of
shear. Will have chance pops over most of the area with "likely"
pops near toledo and NW pa. The thermal fields on most of the models
are chaotic looking Friday, indicative of the convection the model
thinks may be occurring. Highs could get very warm, around 90, if
the showers storms hold off, or be in the lower 80s if there were
enough clouds and showers. Will split the difference and forecast
highs generally in the mid 80s.

There remains uncertainty on the timing of the front for Saturday.

The ECMWF continues to develop a stronger surface wave on the front
as it crosses the great lakes Friday night into Saturday. This may
be convective feedback. Given the time of year and the positively
tilted trough aloft, will not be in a hurry to push the front
through and continue to forecast chance or likely thunderstorms,
with the higher pops toward the oh pa border. Highs Saturday near
guidance, generally in the lower 80s.

Long term Sunday through Tuesday
A flat trough is progged to linger into early next week before
heights start to rise as the ridge builds in the middle of the
country. This will typically lead to thunderstorms from the upper
midwest and mississippi valley into the lower great lakes and ohio
valley. We may get lucky and have a dry Monday but will have to have
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast after that. Temperatures
will likely be near normal.

Aviation 12z Wednesday through Sunday
Vfr conditions will continue through the forecast period with
high pressure over the area. High clouds will continue to spread
into the region. Winds will increase sharply Thursday morning
with southerly winds gusting to 25 to 30 knots by mid morning.

For kcle, a chance of thunderstorms will exist after 22z, so
have included a prob30 at this time.

Outlook... Non-vfr conditions possible in thunderstorms Thursday
evening into Thursday night and again Friday afternoon evening
into Friday night.

Marine
A SW flow on the lake this morning will gradually back to
the south later today. South to southwest winds will pick up on
Thursday as the low level jet slides across the eastern great
lakes. Wind speeds will likely stay just below small craft
advisory criteria and waves will be larger in the open waters
and on the canadian side of the lake. Those that stay near the
south shore will find conditions remain rather quiet but those
heading out into the open water will find the going get rougher
Thursday.

The south to southwest flow should calm down a bit Thursday
night into Friday but there will be an increasing chance for
thunderstorms as a cold front approaches. The front is rather
slow moving and will cross the lake on Saturday. Winds will
veer more southwest to west by Saturday night and Sunday. Winds and
waves will likely approach small craft criteria on the east half of
the lake on Sunday.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Djb
near term... Djb mottice
short term... Kosarik
long term... Greenawalt kosarik
aviation... Mottice
marine... Djb kosarik


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 6 mi68 min SW 9.9 G 12 73°F
45165 12 mi38 min SSW 14 G 19 74°F 70°F1 ft49°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 17 mi68 min S 7 G 9.9 73°F 1018.9 hPa (-1.0)
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 22 mi50 min WSW 7 G 18 77°F 1018.5 hPa47°F
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 26 mi50 min SSW 5.1 G 12 76°F 1019.5 hPa50°F
45005 - W ERIE 28NM Northwest of Cleveland, OH 37 mi48 min S 7.8 G 7.8 70°F 66°F1019.4 hPa57°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 40 mi68 min SSW 8 G 15 75°F 1019 hPa (-1.0)
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH 42 mi83 min SSW 2.9 75°F 1020 hPa49°F
45147 - Lake St Clair 48 mi68 min NNE 12 G 16 70°F 65°F1 ft1017.9 hPa (-1.1)
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 48 mi68 min S 8.9 G 16 75°F 1018.6 hPa (-1.0)

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Monroe, Custer Airport, MI21 mi76 minSSW 11 G 1610.00 miFair76°F49°F39%1018.6 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI21 mi75 minSSE 710.00 miFair73°F55°F54%1018.6 hPa

Wind History from ONZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4W7
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W5SW5SW6CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmW3W4W3W4W5W3CalmW3S5S6S9S11S9S10
1 day agoNW16
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2 days agoW12
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W7W7W3W3CalmCalmW3W4W3W3W5W5W7W9
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.