Thursday, March30, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Stony Point, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 7:59PM Thursday March 30, 2017 2:45 AM EDT (06:45 UTC) Moonrise 8:09AMMoonset 10:08PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ162 Lake Erie Open Waters From Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Reno Beach To The Islands Oh- 1003 Pm Edt Wed Mar 29 2017
Tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east and increasing to 10 to 20 knots. Waves 1 foot or less building to 3 to 5 feet.
Thursday..East winds 15 to 25 knots. Rain showers likely from late morning on. Waves building to 4 to 6 feet.
Thursday night..East winds 10 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots. Rain showers with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..East winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. A chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..North winds 5 to 15 knots diminishing to less than 10 knots. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..North winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers... Then rain showers likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LEZ162 Expires:201703300830;;289586 FZUS61 KCLE 300203 GLFLE OPEN LAKE FORECAST FOR LAKE ERIE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 1003 PM EDT WED MAR 29 2017 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE ERIE .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE 30.40 INCHES WILL SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE 29.40 INCHES WILL MOVE TO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND BE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE 30.20 INCHES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE MONDAY. LEZ162-163-300830-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stony Point, MI
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location: 41.8, -83.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 300534
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
134 am edt Thu mar 30 2017

Synopsis
High pressure north of lake erie will shift to new england on
Thursday. Low pressure will approach from the southern plains on
Thursday and drift east across lake erie on Friday. This system will
move off the east coast Saturday with high pressure expanding across
the local area for the weekend.

Near term /until 6 am this morning/
Based on latest hrrr and radar pix will adjust pops upward enough to
indicate a small chc for shra for areas around leri for a longer
part of the night as well as a small increase for the NW half in
general. Also inched lows up a degree or two due to current temps
and quickly increasing clouds.

Short term /6 am this morning through Saturday night/
Deep upper level trough over the plains will lift into the mid-
mississippi valley on Thursday then across central ohio on Friday. At
the surface, a warm front will lift north into the area on Thursday
with the typical delays expected near lake erie. Kept
temperatures in the 40s at toledo with the front not lifting
north of the lake until Friday. Moisture advection will ramp up
across the area on Thursday and expect a leading band of showers
to lift northeast across the area from mid-morning through late
afternoon. Better chances of rain and increasing chances of
thunderstorms will arrive from the west late in the day with the
approach of a 500mb jet streak. Widespread rain with scattered
thunderstorms expected Thursday night but will have to monitor
to see what role robust convection plays that will develop upstream
across the mississippi and tennessee valley.

Surface low will move into northwest ohio on Friday morning.

Some breaks will start to develop in the showers as drier air
gets wrapped into the system. Diurnally enhanced showers will
likely fill back in during the afternoon. As the low pulls away
to the east, northerly flow will pull the cold front south
behind it with cooler air returning Friday night and Saturday.

Qpf on Thursday and Friday is expected to range from three
quarters of an inch to an inch and a quarter unless moisture
transport gets disrupted by the upstream convection. The
moisture depth becomes shallow by Saturday morning with clouds
scattering out from the north as high pressure builds in.

Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/
Overall upper level pattern still progressive with time. Models
suggest periods of ridging with troughiness moving east across the
lower 48. However, deep trough digging into the pacific northwest
will cause amplification of the ridge in the eastern united states
by mid week.

The forecast area will see transitioning periods of waves of low
pressure alternated with areas of high pressure. So, the current
pattern continues through the early and middle part of next week.

This pattern will still keep the polar jet stream well north of the
area keeping the arctic cold air out of the forecast area for the
time being. Some hints indicate a brief shot of cold air by the end
of the week.

Surface high pressure will exit to the east on Sunday allowing a
southern stream low pressure system to move northeast toward the
area. This system will initially have limited moisture associated
with it but will eventually tap into some gulf moisture by Monday
night and force it north into the area. The low will track east
into the carolinas by Tuesday allowing high pressure to build in
from the north. The high will push east to the mid atlantic coast as
yet another storm system with limited moisture begins to approach
from the west on Wednesday.

Aviation /06z Thursday through Monday/
Ceilings will slowly lower and thicken through the overnight as
a warm front lifts into ohio. MVFR ceilings may arrive across
nw ohio by mid morning with areas of light rain beginning
shortly after. It will take longer for this to occur across the
eastern half of northern ohio into NW pa. Some ifr will be
possible with heavier showers in the morning hours. There may be
a general break in precipitation for several hours this
afternoon, but additional showers and likely a few thunderstorms
will develop and move in from the southwest across all TAF sites
this evening into the overnight hours.

Winds will become east at all locations and increase through
the morning. Winds will become gusty at times beginning later
this morning and continue into the afternoon. Gusts do not
appear that they will exceed the 20 to 25 knot range.

Outlook... Non-vfr continuing into Friday. Non-vfr possible
Sunday night into Monday.

Marine
Winds on the lake will be increasing from the east northeast and it
appears waves will be high enough for the western basin to support
small craft advisory criteria. So, will hoist a small advisory for
the western 2 lake nearshore zones from 2 am tonight through 5 pm on
Thursday. For the rest of the marine nearshore, winds should be
just offshore to prevent waves from reaching 4 feet. So, will not
issue an advisory for this area. Otherwise, winds are expected to
be fairly light through the rest of the forecast period except
Monday. Winds will increase out of the east-northeast Monday and
will likely need another small craft advisory then.

Cle watches/warnings/advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 5 pm edt this afternoon for lez142-
143.

Synopsis... Kec
near term... Kec
short term... Kec
long term... Lombardy
aviation... Mottice
marine... Lombardy


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 6 mi45 min NE 19 G 20 39°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 17 mi45 min NE 11 G 17 42°F 1021.1 hPa (+0.0)
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 22 mi45 min NE 8 G 13 42°F 1019.8 hPa (-1.5)35°F
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 26 mi45 min NE 9.9 G 13 40°F 36°F
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH 42 mi60 min NE 6 40°F 1020 hPa36°F
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 48 mi45 min N 8.9 G 9.9 40°F 1023.4 hPa (-0.3)

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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W7
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N1
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G7

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Monroe, Custer Airport, MI21 mi53 minNE 810.00 miOvercast41°F34°F76%1020.7 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI21 mi52 minNE 910.00 miOvercast40°F34°F79%1021.7 hPa

Wind History from ONZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4NE3CalmN3N3N3NE6NE4NE6E5S6S7S7S6S6CalmCalmE7E10
G15
NE7N9NE10
G15
NE8NE11
1 day agoNE8NE10E6NE6N8N7N11
G14
N8N8NE7N10NE12N7NE8
G14
N7N6N7E7E7NE6NE5NE3N6N5
2 days agoS3S5SW3W5CalmCalmCalmW5W6SW8W8W5S8S6S5S4S4S4S4CalmCalmCalmNE5NE8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.