Thursday, January24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sagamore, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 4:47PM Thursday January 24, 2019 1:08 AM EST (06:08 UTC) Moonrise 10:13PMMoonset 10:30AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ231 Cape Cod Bay- 1004 Pm Est Wed Jan 23 2019
.gale warning in effect from 1 am est Thursday through Thursday evening...
Overnight..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 4 ft. A chance of rain.
Thu..S winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Areas of fog. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm, decreasing to 1 nm or less in the afternoon.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 4 ft. A chance of rain in the evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Fri night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 foot or less.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 1004 Pm Est Wed Jan 23 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. An area of low pres tracks north of the great lakes overnight. A wave of low pres lifts over srn new england on Thu. Widespread rain and strong south gales will prevail across the waters on Thu. Winds may reach storm force Thu. Arctic high pres follows for Fri and Sat. Another weather system brings a chance of rain and snow showers Sun. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sagamore, MA
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location: 41.83, -70.55     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 240321
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
1021 pm est Wed jan 23 2019

Synopsis
The threat for showers will increase from west to east
overnight, particularly toward daybreak Thursday. Heavy rain
on Thursday will bring the potential for some flooding, strong
to damaging wind gusts, along with unseasonably mild
temperatures. Late week into weekend chill with some potential
light snow snow showers in-between. Out ahead of a potent
midweek storm system, onset wintry weather followed by another
soaker possible. Late week could see another arctic blast with
bitterly cold wind chills.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
Observations show a couple of isolated spots in the east slopes
of the berkshires that are just below freezing. Otherwise
temperatures at 10 pm ranged from the mid 30s in western ma to
near 50 in southeast ma. Radar at 10 pm showed rain showers
continuing to move northeast across the northwest corner of ma,
and extending along a thick band from east central ny through
the appalachians. Some signs well to our southeast that this
rain will start shifting east into the remainder of SRN new
england overnight.

With the south to southwest low level flow, we continue to
expect air temperatures and dew points to move higher overnight.

This will bring temperatures into the 40s most places and low
50s in SE mass. Water temperatures south of SRN new england are
in the mid 30s to mid 40s, while dew points are projected to
climb to 45-50. Such air moving over colder or much-colder water
will be subject to fog formation overnight and Thursday.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through 6 pm Thursday
* highlights...

- heavy rain and some flooding potential Thursday
- strong to damaging wind gusts across eastern new england on
Thursday
* discussion...

active weather on Thursday with heavy rain flooding potential on
Thursday along with the strong to damaging wind gusts. Will break
more below.

1) heavy rain flood potential Thursday
intensifying low pressure will track just west of southern new
england Thursday. This will induce a potent southerly low level jet
4-5 standard deviations above normal. Combined this with a pwat
axis 3-4 standard deviations above normal will set the stage for
heavy rain. The strong forcing will result a widespread 1 to 2
inches of rain with locally higher amounts. The greatest risk for
the highest amounts will be across the western slopes of the
worcester hills, where the very strong south to southwest LLJ will
result in some enhanced upslope flow. There is enough forcing and
marginal elevated instability for the low risk of a t-storm or two.

In addition to the heavy rain on Thursday, snow water equivalent
measurements indicate values on the order of 1 to 2 inches across
the region. High temperatures should reach well into the 50s in most
locales and it is not out of the question that a few locations touch
60 across ri SE ma. This coupled with heavy rain and dewpoints in
the upper 40s to middle 50s will result in a good deal of this
melting. Combined all that with a frozen ground, the potential for
areas of significant urban street flooding potential exists. There
also will be the risk for some river stream flooding. Therefore... A
flood watch remains in effect for all but the outer-islands.

2) strong to damaging wind potential:
as low pressure tracks west of southern new england, a very strong
low level jet will develop late Thursday morning and afternoon. The
nam rgem indicate a 925 mb LLJ of 85 to 95 knots moving across the
southeast new england coast, which is 4-5 standard deviations above
normal. At 850 mb, the guidance indicates over 100 knots between
18z and 22 across southeast new england.

As if often the case with southerly flow, it is uncertain how much
of this wind will be able to mix down given the inversion. A good
rule of thumb is to take 50 percent of the 925 mb wind, but this can
be stronger if we are able to get a fine line going. A lot of the
mesoscale models do show this occurring, so something will have to
monitor closely. Based on the data, opted to go with a high wind
warning for southern ri and far southeast ma. We also have gone
with a wind advisory for the rest of eastern ma and ri. An
expansion of these headlines a bit further westward is a
possibility, but will let the midshift take a look at the 00z data.

The threat of these stronger winds reaching the ground will increase
where high temperatures approach 60. Given the heavy rain and the
magnitude of the wind, there is the risk for some downed trees and
scattered power outages.

Long term Thursday night through Wednesday
* highlights ...

- cold, dry conditions through late week
- watching potential outcomes Sunday along an arctic front
- another onset wintry weather, follow-up soaker tue-wed
- potential late week arctic blast
* overview ...

to everything, turn turn turn, there is a season, turn turn turn. A
pattern relatively unchanged through the following week, for now. A
spinning tropospheric polar vortex across the hudson bay region that
has been brought about by continued N pacific poleward sub-tropical
contributions yielding higher heights into the arctic, downshearing
n-stream energy over N america. A broad h5 trof pattern maintaining
within 5-day average h5 height ensemble means through early february
across eastern N america, -h85 temperature anomalies for the central
portion of N america, new england along the e-cusp, wobbling between
airmasses with surface lows cascading round the tpv occluding below
hudson bay lower heights with secondary low development across the
northeast.

Turn turn turn, post-frontal digging arctic air, clipper-systems in-
between. With greater downshearing, equatorward potential vorticity
displacements and tropospheric folds, more robust storms per cyclo-
genesis. Further in time, lower confidence with outcomes, uncertain
with possible N atlantic downstream traffic, mjo contributions. May
see a break mid-february with potential mild sub-tropical pacific
low-level E wind anomalies into the conus.

Break down details, forecast thinking in the discussion below. Low
confidence forecast starting with Friday. Greater weighting towards
ec ecens.

* discussion ...

late week into Saturday ...

westerly winds, cold, dry. Scattered snow shower activity possible
into the berkshires with lake fetch. More robust outcomes with some
additional mid level energy ascent swinging through Friday night
along a reinforcing, arctic cold front. But limited moisture and an
increasing measure of high pressure.

Sunday into Monday ...

additional sweeping pieces of energy beneath the hudson bay tpv. Ec
keeping separate rather than phasing, could see little outcome with
just a brief warm-up to at or above seasonable levels, S winds. As
alluded to by the prior forecaster, have to watch for any potential
development, any focused ascent.

Tuesday through Wednesday ...

another potent storm. Onset wintry weather prior to erosion per s
winds. Not ruling out lead cold air drainage, however loosening with
interior surface to low-level low center over the N great lakes if
the 23.12z ec is correct. Another soaking for S new england possible
with another 1-2 inches of rain, strong S winds. Perhaps a repeat of
the coming storm? Wait and see. Low confidence forecast as forecast
models wobble, shift, adjust.

Thursday onward ...

return arctic air behind a deep, stacked low center over the hudson
bay region. Could see a return of below-zero temperatures, as well
as bitterly cold, potentially dangerous wind chills.

Aviation 03z Thursday through Monday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday ... Moderate to high confidence.

Overnight... MVFR across east ct ri inland SE ma while areas to
the north and across CAPE cod islands remainVFR. As rain moves
in overnight and as moisture flow off the ocean increases,
expect conditions to lower to ifr, mainly due to ceilings. Vsby
may lower to MVFR levels. Increasing low level jet overnight
with llws from southwest winds at 2000 feet agl reaching 40-50
kt.

Thursday...

widespread ifr-lifr with ra +ra. Can't rule out isolated tsra. With
ra +ra, MVFR-ifr vsby issues. Can't rule out interior areas of
fg with vsbys 1 2sm. Increasing S winds sustained 20 to 30 kts
with gusts up to 40 to 50 kts, locally higher. Continued SW llws
45-60 kts 2 kft agl. Greatest impact around 16-20z, winds
shifting W with frontal passage, will see conditions quickly
improveVFR with llws threats concluding.

Kbos terminal...

bring in lower conditions and continue llws impact in time for
the am push. Worst of conditions around 16-20z forecast with
ra +ra. Can't rule out south wind gusts up as high as 55 kts.

Improvement into the pm push with winds shifting from the west.

Kbdl terminal...

conditions lowering to ifr with the am push, with worst of
conditions centered around 14-18z. Can't rule out a rumble of
thunder, and isolated south wind gusts up to 50 kts possible.

Llws impact picks up through afternoon at which point winds
shift from the west and conditions improve.

Outlook Thursday night through Monday ...

Thursday night:VFR. Windy with local gusts to 30 kt.

Friday through Friday night:VFR. Breezy.

Saturday:VFR.

Saturday night:VFR. Breezy. Slight chance shsn.

Sunday:VFR. Breezy. Slight chance shra, slight chance shsn.

Sunday night:VFR. Breezy. Slight chance shsn.

Monday:VFR. Breezy.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday ... Moderate confidence.

Overnight...

a strong SW low level jet will result in 30 to 35 knot wind gusts
across the waters.

Thursday...

expect strong gale force wind gusts. Gale warnings posted for
all waters. We can not rule out brief storm force wind gusts,
but if they occur will be short-lived and enhanced by heavier
rainfall. So if needed, we would handle those stronger winds
with special marine warnings.

Seas will build to between 10 and 15 feet across the outer-
waters. In addition, areas of fog may become locally dense as
anomalously high dewpoints move over the cold ocean.

Outlook Thursday night through Monday ...

Thursday night: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 15 ft. Areas fog.

Friday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft.

Friday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
areas of gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Saturday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

Saturday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of snow showers.

Sunday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Slight chance of rain showers, slight chance of snow showers.

Sunday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain
showers.

Monday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... Flash flood watch from 6 am est Thursday through late Thursday
night for ctz002>004.

Ma... High wind warning from 9 am to 7 pm est Thursday for
maz018>024.

Flash flood watch from 6 am est Thursday through late Thursday
night for maz002>022-026.

Wind advisory from 9 am to 5 pm est Thursday for maz005>007-
013>017.

Ri... High wind warning from 9 am to 7 pm est Thursday for
riz005>008.

Flash flood watch from 6 am est Thursday through late Thursday
night for riz001>007.

Wind advisory from 9 am to 5 pm est Thursday for riz001>004.

Marine... Gale warning until 9 pm est Thursday for anz231>235-237-251-
255-256.

Gale warning from 7 am to 7 pm est Thursday for anz230.

Gale warning from 7 am to 5 pm est Thursday for anz236.

Gale warning until 9 pm est Thursday for anz250-254.

Synopsis... Frank sipprell
near term... Wtb frank sipprell
short term... Frank
long term...

aviation... Wtb frank sipprell
marine... Wtb frank sipprell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44090 12 mi38 min 37°F3 ft
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 17 mi83 min SSE 8 50°F 1017 hPa46°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 22 mi56 min 48°F 34°F1015.6 hPa
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 27 mi38 min S 19 G 23 41°F 33°F1015.6 hPa40°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 34 mi50 min 48°F 39°F
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 34 mi78 min SSW 16 G 19 45°F 3 ft1015.2 hPa (-1.1)42°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 34 mi50 min SSW 16 G 20 47°F 1015.3 hPa
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 36 mi78 min S 21 G 25 48°F 41°F3 ft1013.4 hPa (-2.1)46°F
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 39 mi68 min S 28 G 29 47°F 1015.8 hPa (-2.0)
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 43 mi50 min S 20 G 25 44°F 36°F1014.9 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 44 mi83 min SW 11 47°F 1016 hPa45°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 44 mi56 min WSW 8.9 G 13 47°F 1015.4 hPa
PVDR1 44 mi56 min SSW 16 G 19 51°F 1014.8 hPa51°F
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 45 mi56 min 48°F 1013.4 hPa
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 45 mi50 min SW 8.9 G 22 51°F 35°F1014.2 hPa
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 45 mi50 min S 11 G 20 47°F 31°F1016.6 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 47 mi56 min SSW 8 G 8.9 45°F 36°F1015.5 hPa
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 48 mi124 min SW 14 G 18 45°F 40°F4 ft1013.1 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 48 mi56 min SW 16 G 22 48°F 37°F1015.4 hPa

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA11 mi16 minSSW 13 G 3010.00 miOvercast51°F46°F86%1014.4 hPa
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA12 mi13 minSSW 20 G 2810.00 miOvercast and Breezy52°F46°F82%1015.2 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA18 mi12 minS 84.00 miFog/Mist43°F39°F89%1015.7 hPa
Marshfield Airport, MA20 mi13 minSW 16 G 2510.00 miOvercast54°F50°F88%1013.5 hPa
Provincetown Municipal Airport, MA22 mi12 minSSW 12 G 1810.00 miOvercast45°F42°F90%1015.3 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA24 mi15 minSSW 14 G 2010.00 miOvercast50°F48°F96%1014.8 hPa

Wind History from PYM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmSW3CalmS3SE3CalmS4SW5SW7SW10
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1 day agoNW13
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NW9W9W4CalmW5W4CalmSW3CalmCalm
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Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Bournedale, Massachusetts
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:53 AM EST     7.15 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:03 AM EST     -0.65 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:29 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 01:09 PM EST     7.73 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:47 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:37 PM EST     -1.15 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:13 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.77.16.65.33.51.60-0.6-0.11.53.45.477.77.46.24.42.40.4-0.9-1-01.73.6

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:25 AM EST     -4.86 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:27 AM EST     0.03 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:26 AM EST     4.65 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 09:29 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 11:40 AM EST     -0.07 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:45 PM EST     -5.15 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:47 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:54 PM EST     0.23 knots Slack
Thu -- 09:00 PM EST     4.91 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 09:13 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-2.2-4-4.8-4.7-4-2.32.544.64.642.7-2-4-4.9-5.1-4.6-3.31.13.64.64.94.63.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.