Wednesday, May24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Staatsburg, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:25AMSunset 8:20PM Wednesday May 24, 2017 9:30 AM EDT (13:30 UTC) Moonrise 4:54AMMoonset 6:55PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 702 Am Edt Wed May 24 2017
Today..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Light rain early this morning...then chance of light rain late this morning.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt...increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less...then around 2 ft after midnight. Chance of rain after midnight.
Thu..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers in the morning...then showers likely with chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night..E winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming ne 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog in the evening. Showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely in the morning...then chance of showers in the afternoon.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming s. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 702 Am Edt Wed May 24 2017
Synopsis for long island waters and new york harbor.. A low pressure system tracks southeast of long island today followed by brief high pressure tonight. A slow moving low pressure system then impacts the waters Thursday into Friday. Weak high pressure returns for Saturday before another frontal system impacts the waters for the latter half of the holiday weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Staatsburg, NY
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location: 41.83, -73.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 241040
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
640 am edt Wed may 24 2017

Synopsis
Weak high pressure will bring generally fair weather today, although
a passing upper level disturbance could bring some light rain to
southern areas this morning, and isolated showers across the
adirondacks for this afternoon. Low pressure approaching from the
southwest will bring another bout of cool and damp weather for
Thursday into Friday, with occasional rain. Another brief period of
fair weather is expected Saturday, before more showers return for
Sunday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 630 am edt, high to mid level clouds prevail from the
eastern mohawk valley region and southeast adirondacks and areas
to the south and east. Thin spots in the clouds continue across
the far western adirondacks mohawk valley region, where temps
have dipped into the lower mid 40s. Elsewhere, where clouds
prevail, temps range from the upper 40s to lower mid 50s.

Also, some patchy fog has formed, mainly across the western
adirondacks and mohawk valley region, where slightly cooler
temperatures have allowed temps to fall farther below the
crossover temperatures.

Latest regional radars and surface observations suggest very
light rain sprinkles falling from a mid level cloud deck across
portions of northern nj into extreme SW ct, and heading
northeast. This light rain is in association with some mid level
frontogenesis ahead of a shortwave approaching from the
southwest. Some of this very light rain or sprinkles may expand
north and brush mainly extreme southern litchfield co between 7
and 10 am. Some light rain sprinkles may also expand into portions
of the mid hudson valley, particularly east of the hudson
river during this time, although with lower probability. Any
light rain sprinkles in these areas should end by late morning,
with decreasing clouds expected for this afternoon.

Additional shortwave energy translating north northeast from the
north central appalachians is expected to move across the
western adirondacks this afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest
some weak instability developing across the adirondacks later
this morning into the afternoon, with the possibility of sb
capes reaching 200-400 j kg. Have indicated an area of isolated
showers this afternoon across mainly the southwest adirondacks,
and higher terrain of southern vt. Can not completely rule out
an embedded thunderstorm, but have removed mention of thunder
from latest forecast update as there is some suggestion of mid
level capping which may limit vertical extent of showers. Will
have to watch trends, as some higher-res cams suggest that
isolated showers may even develop as far SE as the lake
george saratoga region early this afternoon.

Expect high temperatures to be warmest to the N and W of albany,
where more sunshine is expected through the day, with highs
reaching the mid upper 70s for lower elevations, and upper 60s
to lower 70s for higher terrain. To the south and east of the
capital region, high mid level clouds through this morning may
limit high temperatures a bit, with mainly 70-75 expected.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Thursday
Tonight, expect generally dry conditions through at least
midnight, with a gradual increase in clouds once again from
south to north. Some light rain is expected to approach from the
south and west toward daybreak across the eastern catskills and
mid hudson valley region, but may remain S and W of the capital
region through 8 am. Have indicated high chance to likely pops
for areas south of i-90, and only slight chance or less to the n
through 8 am edt Monday. Lows should fall into the upper 40s to
lower 50s.

Thursday, rain should slowly expand north northeast across the
region during the morning, but may hold off across southern vt,
the upper hudson valley and southern adirondacks until
afternoon. Expect periods of rain of varying intensity for the
afternoon hours. Some weak elevated instability could bring a
few rumbles of thunder for southern areas in the afternoon, but
have kept out any mention at this time due to uncertainty
regarding the degree of elevated instability.

The bigger issue for Thursday may be strong winds across
portions of the southern greens, berkshires, and taconics, as a
strong low level jet translates across the region with 40+ kt
winds expected at and above h925. With some relatively dry air
expected within the boundary layer between bands of rain, it is
possible that some gusts of 40+ mph may mix down in the
afternoon hours in these areas. Will highlight these areas in
the hwoaly, as there is some possibility that a wind advisory
may be needed. Elsewhere, although some gusty winds will be
possible across mainly higher elevations, the potential to reach
or exceed advisory levels appears less at this time.

Temperatures may reach the upper 50s to lower 60s before
steadier rain overspread the region, with temps likely falling
in the afternoon once more persistent rain arrives and stronger
wet bulb cooling processes commence. Many areas may actually
fall to between 50-55 by late afternoon, if not perhaps slightly
cooler across portions of the berkshires and southern vt.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
After the initial moisture surge, we will be watching a rather
potent pv-anomaly rounding the base of an increasingly negatively
tilted trough aloft across the southeast CONUS that is forecast to
lift rather quickly northeast overnight. While models differ on
placement, a surface low should evolve across the middle atlantic
region and track toward the vicinity of boston, ma 12z Friday. So
while there may be a break in the precipitation Thursday evening,
showers and or periods of rain should fill back in across the region
a trowal wraps back westward overnight. At this time, seems
locations along and east of the hudson river are under the higher
probability for rainfall as we will place the higher pops for these
areas. Overnight lows mainly into the 50s.

Friday appears to be a rather cloudy and soggy day as the
combination of the coastal low and moist cyclonic flow aloft will
keep the threat for wet weather in the forecast. The trowal
translates further east which will take the higher threat of
rainfall across western new england through the day. Highs will
range from the lower half of the 60s for valley locations to 50s
elsewhere.

Friday night, trends toward a more tranquil pattern as the
aforementioned coastal and upper trough become further removed
allowing for short wave ridging to build across the forecast area.

While this will end most of the precipitation, the combination of
moist profiles from previous wet period of weather along with
lighter winds should allow for the increased potential of patchy
fog. Overnight lows will range from the 40s across the terrain to
lower 50s for the immediate capital region southward along the
hudson river valley.

For the upcoming holiday weekend, latest trends in the global model
suite are favoring a more drier pattern as the short wave ridge
becomes a bit more pronounced Saturday through Sunday morning. So
under partial sunshine, highs should climb toward or exceed 70f for
many locations as Saturday night lows mainly into the 50s.

Later Sunday, models diverge with respect to timing of next short
wave approaching. Subtle hints of an MCS that develops in the
vicinity of the ohio valley tracks ene toward the northeast corridor
later Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. We will trend pops a
little higher but keep values below likely thresholds at this time.

Monday into Tuesday, another closed upper low develops across the
great lakes region with a series of waves transversing through the
cyclonic flow. This will keep the threat of showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm through Tuesday. Temperatures will average for highs
between 65-75f and overnight lows mainly into the 50s.

Aviation 12z Wednesday through Sunday
GenerallyVFR conditions are expected through at least 08z thu.

Some very light rain or sprinkles may affect kpou and kpsf
between roughly 11z-16z wed, as a weak low pressure system
passes off the mid atlantic coast. Conditions should remainVFR
during this time, however.

Some lower clouds may develop and or expand northward, and
reach kpou and kpsf toward 12z thu. Overall probability is low,
so will only suggest a sct deck reaching these sites for now
after 08z thu.

In addition, some light rain may approach kpou toward 12z thu,
but vsby is expected to remainVFR through that time.

Light variable to calm winds through daybreak should trend into
the southeast to south at 5-10 kt later Wednesday morning into
the afternoon. Winds should become light and variable again
Wednesday evening, except may remain southeast to south at kalb
through the night at 5-10 kt.

Thursday night: high operational impact. Likely shra... Dz.

Friday: high operational impact. Likely shra.

Friday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of shra... Fg.

Saturday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Saturday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Sunday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Tsra.

Fire weather
Weak high pressure will bring generally fair weather today, although
a passing upper level disturbance could bring some light rain to
southern areas this morning, and isolated showers across the
adirondacks for this afternoon. Low pressure approaching from the
southwest will bring another bout of cool and damp weather for
Thursday into Friday, with occasional rain. Another brief period of
fair weather is expected Saturday, before more showers return for
Sunday.

Rainfall amounts of one half inch to one inch are expected from
Thursday through late Friday afternoon.

Hydrology
Generally dry weather is expected today and tonight, except for
some very light rain across southern areas this morning, and
isolated showers thunderstorms across the western adirondacks
this afternoon.

Widespread rainfall is expected across the area Thursday into
Friday as a slow moving low pressure system approaches and moves
across the region. Rainfall amounts of one half inch, to around
an inch are expected.

Fair weather is expected for Saturday, however unsettled weather
returns for the latter part of the holiday weekend through at
least early next week with additional rainfall.

These periods of rain may result in some within bank rises on
area streams and rivers.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs
on our website.

Equipment
The ASOS in glens falls at the floyd bennett memorial airport
still is not transmitting observations. It has been out of
service since severe thunderstorms impacted the area Thursday
evening, may 18th. Technicians continue to work on restoring
communications.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Kl
near term... Kl
short term... Kl
long term... Bgm
aviation... Kl nas
fire weather... Iaa kl
hydrology... Iaa kl
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 13 mi60 min 58°F 1007 hPa55°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 60 mi42 min N 4.1 G 7 58°F 1006.9 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 63 mi45 min NE 7.8 G 9.7 58°F 54°F

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY13 mi37 minW 310.00 miOvercast57°F52°F83%1007.4 hPa
Newburgh / Stewart, NY24 mi45 minVar 520.00 miMostly Cloudy59°F55°F88%1008.5 hPa

Wind History from POU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4CalmW5--N5N4W5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3
1 day agoS75S8SE5S4SE4CalmSE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4
2 days agoCalm34W8S7SW10
G15
SW7S9S7S10S7S6S74S5SE4S6SE5S5S3SE4SE546

Tide / Current Tables for Hyde Park, Hudson River, New York
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Hyde Park
Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Wed -- 12:01 AM EDT     4.04 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:54 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:59 AM EDT     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:32 PM EDT     3.59 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:54 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:05 PM EDT     -0.30 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
43.93.32.41.40.60-0.20.21.22.33.13.53.53.12.31.40.5-0-0.301.12.43.5

Tide / Current Tables for Kingston Point, Hudson River, New York
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Kingston Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:26 AM EDT     4.73 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:54 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:23 AM EDT     -0.28 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:59 PM EDT     4.18 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:54 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:30 PM EDT     -0.37 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.74.74.23.2210.3-0.2-0.10.82.13.23.94.23.93.22.110.2-0.3-0.30.62.23.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.