Wednesday, January23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fairport Harbor, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:43AMSunset 5:30PM Wednesday January 23, 2019 4:15 AM EST (09:15 UTC) Moonrise 8:44PMMoonset 9:39AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ147 Expires:201901230915;;778303 Fzus51 Kcle 230246 Nshcle Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 946 Pm Est Tue Jan 22 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez144>149-230915- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh-lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 946 Pm Est Tue Jan 22 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday morning...
Overnight..South winds to 30 knots diminishing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain, freezing rain with a slight chance of snow late this evening, then a chance of rain and snow after midnight. Rain likely late. Waves in ice free areas 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..South winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest. Rain. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. A chance of rain and snow in the evening. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Thursday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet. Wave heights are for ice free areas. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Friday through Sunday. The water temperature off toledo is 32 degrees, off cleveland 34 degrees and off erie 33 degrees.
LEZ147


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fairport Harbor, OH
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location: 41.83, -81.28     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 230609
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
109 am est Wed jan 23 2019

Synopsis
A storm system will move east toward ohio late tonight into
Wednesday bringing widespread precipitation to the area. A
significant warming trend is expected on Wednesday... With a
cooling trend expected into the weekend. A series of weak storm
systems will brush the area Thursday into the weekend bringing
unsettled weather to the region through at least the end of the
week.

Near term through today
Despite temperatures in the lower 30s in lucas county,
dewpoints remain in the upper 20s and getting reports of slick
conditions as very cold rain falls onto cold pavement. Issued an
sps through 4 am when temperatures dewpoints are expected to
start to push upwards and alleviate some of the icing concerns.

Will update the forecast shortly to add a mention of freezing
rain back in and slow the degree of warming.

Original... An upper low will move slowly from kansas this
evening northeast toward southern wisconsin by late Wednesday
morning. This will bring precipitation into northwest ohio later
this evening spreading east into NW pa Wednesday morning. A
warm front will spread north across the region during this time
frame... With a significant warming trend... Meaning much of the
precipitation will fall in the form of rain. There will be a
brief window later tonight into early tomorrow morning where
freezing rain will be a possibility..Especially across lucas and
wood counties.

Precipitation should move east out of the region by Wednesday
evening... With a few lingering showers possible across the
eastern third of the area.

When all is said and done... Much of the area is expected to pick
up between two-thirds of an inch to an inch of rain. This is
combination with daytime temperatures in the 40s and rain
melting a bit of the snow... We could see some significant rises
on area rivers. At this time most look to stay below flood
stage... But it is something we will continue to monitor over the
next 12 to 24 hours.

A cold front associated with a surface low over michigan will
trail behind the precipitation... Approaching western ohio by the
early afternoon hours on Wednesday... Exiting east out of NW pa
by the evening hours. This will result in a cooling trend and a
switch back to snow Wednesday evening the overnight hours.

Short term tonight through Friday night
Lingering light snow will be slowly decreasing across our far
eastern areas early Thursday morning. Some lingering lake enhanced
light snow showers may still be going on across the primary snowbelt
areas as well. A deep upper level trough develops over the great
lakes region and a strong arctic cold front moves through the area
late Thursday. Winds will increase from the west-northwest late in
the day and temperatures will fall. As the arctic airmass invades
the area Thursday afternoon and Thursday night, scattered snow
showers area wide will develop, especially downwind of the
lake. Models indicate bands of lake effect snow will become
likely Thursday night into Friday for the primary snowbelt.

Models continue to indicate moderate to locally heavy lake effect
snow will be possible for far northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania in the primary snowbelt on Friday lasting through
Saturday. Some early estimates of localized 6 to 12 plus inches may
be possible with a good west to east fetch of wind from the lake.

The blast of cold and wind chills will be the main weather storm
elsewhere with scattered light snow showers for the end of the week.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
For a brief period of time, we will see a return southerly flow
Saturday night and early on Sunday ahead of the next cold front and
clipper like system. Widespread light snow for everywhere will be
possible on Sunday with the passage of another front and shortwave.

Another stronger clipper like system with better lift and moisture
may bring another round of light snow to the area early next week.

The is not much confidence on exact timing and amounts but the main
message we are conveying in the long term is that it will be colder
than average and several chances of snow for the region.

Aviation 06z Wednesday through Sunday
Precipitation starting to spread in from the west and included a
tempo for freezing rain at tol with reports that slick
conditions are developing on cold surfaces. Temperatures will
warm through 09z with just rain expected beyond that time. Although
precipitation echos will begin to expand east, it will take
some time for precipitation to reach the ground given low
dewpoints and dry air in the low levels. Rain will fill in at
terminals through 14z or so with most locations seeing ceilings
and visibilities eventually drop to ifr in rain. Can not rule
out some fog developing as well as very moist air overrides a
healthy snowpack this afternoon.

Winds aloft are very strong early this morning with some sites
gusting to 30+ knots and other sites with lighter winds
experiencing low level wind sheer. Added the llws at cak yng and
will continue at tol until surface winds come up more. Southwest
winds will remain breezy through the day before shifting to the
west this evening with a cold front. This should usher in
drier air and help to scour out some of the lower ceilings and
visibilities.

Outlook... Occasional non-vfr Wednesday evening through
Saturday.

Marine
Southerly winds will increase this evening through Wednesday morning
between 15 to 25 knots. We have issued a small craft advisory for
ice free areas of the near shore water. A cold front will shift
winds late Wednesday to the west-northwest 15 to 25 knots through
Wednesday night. A strong arctic front will move across the lake
late Thursday with strong gusty west-northwest winds between 20 to
30 knots. Additional small craft advisories will likely be needed
for the end of the week as well as possible heavy freezing spray
alerts. There will be a brief delay in ice formation but arctic air
for the end of the week and weekend will likely cause rapid ice
formation again. Strong winds will be around over the lake for much
of the weekend.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 am est Thursday for lez144>149.

Synopsis... Riley
near term... Kec riley
short term... Griffin
long term... Griffin
aviation... Kec
marine... Griffin


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 5 mi28 min SSW 5.1 G 8.9 38°F 33°F1015.4 hPa35°F
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH 27 mi28 min 39°F 1014.6 hPa30°F
CBLO1 - Conneaut Breakwater Light, OH 40 mi26 min SSW 8 G 15 37°F 1015.9 hPa

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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N26
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G41
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from CGF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--------------S8SE8SE11
G17
SE19
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--S14
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SE12
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1 day ago--------------N9N10NW11NW8
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N8NW11N8NW7NW8W6NW4SW4CalmSW6SW4S5S5
2 days ago--------------N15
G26
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G24

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.