Sunday, May26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fairport Harbor, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:54AMSunset 8:49PM Sunday May 26, 2019 3:09 AM EDT (07:09 UTC) Moonrise 1:20AMMoonset 11:55AM Illumination 52% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ147 Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh-lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 805 Pm Edt Sat May 25 2019
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms this evening. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..West winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..Light and variable winds. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Tuesday through Thursday. The water temperature off toledo is 60 degrees, off cleveland 55 degrees and off erie 56 degrees.
LEZ147 Expires:201905260230;;460807 FZUS51 KCLE 260005 NSHCLE Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland OH 805 PM EDT Sat May 25 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ147>149-260230-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fairport Harbor, OH
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location: 41.83, -81.28     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 260603
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
203 am edt Sun may 26 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will slowly sag south across the area late
tonight, pushing just south of the area Sunday afternoon. The
front will remain between the southern great lakes and ohio
valley through Monday before lifting north through the area
Monday night into Tuesday, remaining north of the area through
midweek. An unsettled weather pattern will remain over the
region much of next week.

Near term through today
Little change with this mid evening update. Will have quiet
conditions through the early morning hours. Will be watching
convection upstream reach western oh by morning. Expecting some
showers thunderstorms to work across the area in the morning
and early afternoon with a second round confined more to the
southern counties possible for late afternoon evening. Previous
discussion follows.

The unofficial start to summer has brought record heat and
severe storms this holiday weekend. Afternoon temperatures
managed to reach the upper 80s and lower 90s. We were able to
mix out very well with some slightly drier dewpoints working
down to the surface. CAPE values have reached between 2000-3000
j kg, downdraft CAPE values have reached up to 1500 j kg, bulk
shear values are about 45 to 50 knots. There is also a mcv
moving out of indiana into ohio this afternoon which all points
to an active afternoon with a broken line of severe convection
developing and moving eastward. Storm motions will be fast given
the mid level flow. The main threats for these storms will be
damaging wind gusts of 70 mph and large hail up to ping pong
size possible. The latest runs of the hrrr and 4km NAM nest
have finally came into some decent agreement with the timing and
placement of the storm potential through the early evening.

Most of the severe storms should be out of our local CWA by 8 pm
this evening.

A cool front will sag southward into the area by Sunday morning.

Another ripple of energy and disturbance will move along in the
westerlies early Sunday morning and may interact with the front.

Guidance does show additional storms, some strong, may be
impacting western ohio by 9 am Sunday and moving into central
ohio by late morning and midday. Some of these storms may become
severe and there is a marginal to slight risk for severe weather
across portions of central ohio. Damaging winds and hail will be
again the main threat. Temperatures will be cooler north of the
southward front. The front will move through the entire area by
Sunday evening with slight drier and cooler weather moving in
temporarily.

Short term tonight through Tuesday night
Frontal boundary will dip south of the area on Monday allowing for
slightly cooler temperatures especially near the lakeshore with
northerly flow. The frontal boundary will return north Monday
increasing the chances for showers and thunderstorms mainly in the
evening. Rain chances come down to only a slight chance for Tuesday
due to residual moisture over the area, however dynamics will be
insufficient for much coverage.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
Conditions become more favorable for convection on Wednesday as a
shortwave trough advances into the great lakes region from the
plains. This feature has a slow eastward progression and will
support a SW flow and moisture stream from the gulf with dew points
in the mid 60s and highs in the 80s. The best upper level dynamics
are displaced to the northwest, however there will be some enhanced
divergence aloft. The trough will weaken and Thursday and swing east
of the area Friday with cooler and drier conditions expected late
week.

Aviation 06z Sunday through Thursday
Vfr conditions expected during the early part of the period,
however an upstream wave producing convection near klaf will
track through the area this morning. For the most part, expected
the convection to be in a weakening state, so have opted for
vcsh wording vs. Vcts, with confidence in thunder too low this
morning. Another wave tracks across the region this
afternoon evening as a cold front tracks south into the area.

This has a better chance to produce tsra given daytime heating
and the approaching surface forcing, however too uncertain at
this point for pinning down the exact area, timing and coverage
of any storms. Hope to have a better handle on tsra potential at
the terminals by the 12z TAF issuance. Threat for tsra shra
should end around or shortly after the 00z-03z timeframe.

Westerly winds will persist into the afternoon, but will veer
more northerly by this evening as the front moves through, but
winds will be light at this point.

Outlook... Non-vfr possible for periods of time through Thursday,
primarily centered around rounds of convection.

Marine
Several pieces of low pressure will impact the region today through
Tuesday night with a frontal boundary lifting north and south of the
lake multiple days. Southwest winds of 10-20 knots on the lake this
afternoon will lead to choppy conditions and 2 to 4 foot waves on
the east end for a few hours this evening. Otherwise a weak cold
front will settle south of the lake early Sunday morning with high.

Pressure building in behind and bringing generally light wind
conditions for Sunday. Easterly winds develop on Monday ahead of a
warm front that will lift north across the lake Monday night. This
will lead to a brief period of elevated water levels across the
western basin of the lake. However speeds may not be high enough to
cause anything more than minor flooding issues with the extremely
high water levels. Southwest winds increase Tuesday into Wednesday
and a small craft advisory may be needed for portions of lake erie
on Wednesday.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Griffin oudeman
near term... Griffin
short term... Jamison
long term... Jamison
aviation... Greenawalt
marine... Kec


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 5 mi52 min SW 17 G 21 74°F 62°F1014 hPa66°F
45164 23 mi70 min 54°F1 ft
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH 27 mi52 min SSW 2.9 G 5.1
45169 32 mi30 min WSW 7.8 G 9.7 61°F 55°F1 ft1017.5 hPa
45176 32 mi30 min NNE 7.8 G 7.8 64°F 57°F1 ft
45132 - Port Stanley 44 mi70 min WSW 12 G 14 54°F 49°F2 ft1012.9 hPa (-0.3)

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cleveland / Cuyahoga, OH20 mi75 minSSW 610.00 miFair69°F63°F83%1015.6 hPa

Wind History from CGF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE8CalmSE6S11S12
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SW9----SW8SW6
1 day agoW6CalmCalmCalmW4CalmN7N5NW5NE4CalmNW5NW6NE3CalmE4SE4NE4E4SE5SE6E4SE8SE8
2 days agoS5S6S7S7SW12W9
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W9NW6W7NW6W7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.