Tuesday, November20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fairport Harbor, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 5:01PM Tuesday November 20, 2018 6:27 AM EST (11:27 UTC) Moonrise 3:57PMMoonset 4:09AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ147 Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh-lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 337 Pm Est Mon Nov 19 2018
Tonight..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. A chance of snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers in the morning. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet, then subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet. A small craft advisory may be needed.
Tuesday night..West winds 15 to 25 knots increasing to 30 knots. A chance of snow showers overnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet building to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Wednesday..West winds to 30 knots becoming northwest 15 to 25 knots. Snow showers likely. Waves 5 to 9 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Thursday through Saturday. The water temperature off toledo is 40 degrees, off cleveland 46 degrees and off erie 44 degrees.
LEZ147 Expires:201811200315;;553968 FZUS51 KCLE 192037 NSHCLE Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland OH 337 PM EST Mon Nov 19 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ145>149-200315-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fairport Harbor, OH
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location: 41.83, -81.28     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 200924
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
424 am est Tue nov 20 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure across the eastern great lakes will move east to
the coast today. A cold front will drop into the area behind
the low. A clipper system will move across the great lakes
tonight dragging another cold front through the region. Cold but
dry conditions are expected thanksgiving.

Near term through Wednesday
For today, an upper trough moving through the great lakes
combined with a surface low to our northeast was bringing light
snow to the region overnight. This should come to an end
northwest before dawn but will linger into the morning hours
east. Not really looking for any significant accums. Main
question is of potential lake enhancement. Best moisture is over
the snowbelt and the lake through about 18z with drying moving
in there after. Temps at 850mb never really get cold enough for
true lake effect but with lift and moisture in the favorable
snow growth zone through the morning expect best enhancement to
occur then. Through the afternoon 850mb temps continue to cool
to around -10c by evening but drier air moves in aloft and
dendrite growth is lost. Instability will remain at conditional
through the day and winds also shift from west, to northwest,
and then back to west through the day as a trough moves through
so limited time to set up bands. Will have accums in grids at 1
to 2 inches today across the snow belt with a 1 to 3 inch inland
eastern erie county. For tonight drying moves in with a ridge of
high pressure extending in from the southwest. This breaks down
quickly as another clipper moves through the lakes. Associated
moisture is limited but sufficient for additional lake effect
snow. Will have likely to categorical pops in the snowbelt with
another 1 to 3 the most likely outcome.

Short term Wednesday night through Friday
The short term forecast begins on Wednesday night with the region
behind a cold front. Cold air advection in northwest flow over the
great lakes will usher in some cold, dry arctic air into the region.

There is a brief window for some lake effect on Wednesday night as
northwest flow is a favorable fetch for lake effect off lakes huron
and erie but the moisture off these two lake will have to fight off
quite a bit of dry air behind the front, while flow continues to
veer overnight. For now, will have a chance pop in the snow belt
with up to an inch of snow accumulation for Wednesday night, as
there is a window for lake effect but enough to keep it from getting
out of control.

Arctic high pressure will build south over the region for
thanksgiving day. This will keep the area dry, but most notably,
temperatures of -10 to -17c at 850 mb will translate to high
temperatures in the 20s. If this holds, it could be the coldest
thanksgiving on record for several areas (lowest maximum
temperature), so stay tuned for potential climate records. High
pressure will shift east on Friday as a warm front moves into the
region. Rain should hold off until Friday night, as an upper ridge
will still be in place over the region. Temperatures will recover 10-
15 degrees on Friday with the air air advection and southerly flow,
but highs will still run below normal in the upper 30s to lower
40s.

Long term Friday night through Monday
The long term forecast period looks unsettled to say the least for
this weekend. An upper trough digs into the great lakes region
Friday night into Saturday supporting a warm front. This upper level
energy should be enough to generate widespread rain on Saturday,
diminishing on Saturday night. Temperatures may actually be back
around normal for the weekend, close to 50 in many spots... Of
course, these warmer temperatures will be spoiled by rain.

Weak high pressure attempts to briefly build into the forecast area
on Sunday, which should allow at least the first half of Sunday to
be dry. However, a deep trough will dig across the central conus
supporting a surface low over the southern plains, which could
impact the region early next week. This system could draw some cold
air back into the region so p-type is going to be an issue and
something to look out for early next week. All of rain, snow, and
mixed precipitation will be a possibility depending on the track of
the low and how fast slow warmer air moves out of the region.

Temperatures will begin falling back down below normal into the
low to mid 40s.

Marine
A cold front moving across the lake this morning will exit southeast
of the lake by later this afternoon. Weak high pressure will attempt
to build back in behind this front but a much stronger, arctic cold
front will cross the lake on Wednesday. Once the first cold front
crosses the lake today, winds and waves will be on the increase and
remain strong through at least Wednesday night. The strongest winds
will be on Wednesday with the second cold front when there could be
gusts to 35 knots at times. Have gone ahead and issued a small craft
advisory for all of lake erie through Wednesday night. The central
basin will see the waves reach SCA criteria by late morning before
building east as the cold front clears the lake. Westerly flow will
increase late this afternoon so will start the central basin early
for the waves but everyone will be reaching SCA criteria by sunset.

High pressure will build behind the cold front on Thursday and winds
should settle to light and variable and waves will subside on the
lake. A warm front will approach the lake for the weekend bringing
southerly flow to the area.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 4 am est Thursday for lez145>148.

Small craft advisory from 3 pm this afternoon to 4 am est
Thursday for lez149.

Small craft advisory from 3 pm this afternoon to 4 pm est
Wednesday for lez142>144.

Synopsis... Tk
near term... Tk
short term... Sefcovic
long term... Sefcovic
aviation... Tk
marine... Sefcovic


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 5 mi39 min WNW 15 G 19 36°F 39°F1015 hPa35°F
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH 27 mi39 min 36°F 48°F1015.5 hPa32°F
CBLO1 - Conneaut Breakwater Light, OH 40 mi37 min WNW 12 G 16 39°F 1014.2 hPa
45132 - Port Stanley 44 mi87 min WNW 12 G 16 35°F 47°F2 ft1014.6 hPa (+0.6)

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from CGF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--------------S6SE5SE5S5SE7SE5S5SE4SE7S6S5S4CalmS4SW4W11W10
1 day ago--------------SE10SE8SE7SE7SE5CalmCalmCalmS5CalmS4S4SW4SW5SW5W5SW6
2 days ago--------------W15
G20
W10SW10W14W14W14NW10NW10NW8NW10W5NW5E4SE3SE6SE4SE5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.