Thursday, February22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fairport Harbor, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 6:09PM Thursday February 22, 2018 5:58 PM EST (22:58 UTC) Moonrise 11:01AMMoonset 12:14AM Illumination 52% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ147 Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Reno Beach To The Islands Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh-lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 341 Am Est Thu Feb 22 2018
Today..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of freezing rain, snow and sleet early, then a chance of rain, freezing rain, snow and sleet late this morning. A chance of snow, a slight chance of rain, freezing rain and sleet early this afternoon. The lake is mostly ice covered.
Tonight..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming east 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain and freezing rain overnight.
Friday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. Rain in the morning, then a chance of rain in the afternoon.
Friday night..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Mostly cloudy. Waves omitted due to the lake being mostly ice covered. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Saturday through Monday. The water temperature off toledo is 34 degrees...off cleveland 34 degrees and off erie 34 degrees.
LEZ147 Expires:201802221515;;360267 FZUS51 KCLE 220841 NSHCLE Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland OH 341 AM EST Thu Feb 22 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ142>149-221515-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fairport Harbor, OH
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location: 41.83, -81.28     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 221957
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
257 pm est Thu feb 22 2018

Synopsis
A series of weak low pressure systems will track northeast through
the region Friday through Sunday. These systems will swing a frontal
boundary north and south across the region through the weekend. The
strongest low tracking through the great lakes on Sunday will push a
cold front east through the area, with high pressure building east
across the region through the first half of next week.

Near term through Friday night
An active pattern will continue through Friday night as another wave
of low pressure tracks northeast along a frontal boundary just south
of the forecast area. Main changes to the forecast are temperatures
and timing of pops. Temperatures today have been much warmer than
previously forecasted, and MOS guidance suggests that any diurnal
cooling through the evening will cease as warm air advection takes
hold across the region and temperatures become steady and slowly
rise through daybreak tomorrow. Low temps may be reached early in
the overnight, likely before 06z. Temps should remain above freezing
across the area after 06z, so the onset of any precip should be
rain, and the threat of previously forecasted freezing rain across
nw oh is limited to non-existent at this point.

Have delayed the onset of precip a couple of hours during the Friday
morning period, as majority of guidance has trended this way. Pops
should MAX out mid morning to mid day across the area, with a period
of cat pops for the entire area. The rain should move east out of
the area by 00z, with mainly dry conditions across the area
overnight Friday into early Saturday morning. The bulk of the
guidances is putting the heaviest swath of rainfall just south of
the forecast area, with the heaviest amounts in our forecast area
expected from roughly marion to youngstown, where amounts around
0.75" to 1" are possible. Have held off on a flood watch at this
point, with the greater threat later in the weekend. Currently
thinking this round of rainfall Friday night will only prolong
existing river flooding across the southern part of the forecast
area, with the bigger flood threat in the Saturday Saturday night
time frame. Have raised highs a degree or two across the area, with
low to mid 50s across most of the area, with upper 50s to around 60
across the far southern fringe of the area.

Another low will track northeast into the area late Friday night
into early Saturday morning. Have slowed down pops with this period
as well, with likely pops holding off until closer to 12z. Lows will
be in the mid 30s to low 40s.

Short term Saturday through Monday
The short term begins Saturday with an upper trough just east
of the rockies into the four corners and a negatively tilted
upper ridge across the upper midwest. At the surface, high
pressure will be over the great lakes. Low pressure will be in
the southern plains with low level flow out of the glfmx into
the lower ohio valley. This will be a very wet pattern for the
ohio valley in general and will need to monitor the expected
swath of heaviest rainfall Saturday into Sunday for potential
flood headlines. For now however will bring categorical pops
into the area from the ssw on Saturday continuing Saturday night
as the southern plains low moves to the western great lakes
dragging a warm front into the area followed by a cold front
late Saturday night and early Sunday. Drying moves in quickly
Sunday from the west as the storm system continues northeast
across the lakes into ontario and high pressure builds in from
the south. Expect non-diurnal temp trends Saturday night into
Sunday morning with warm advection ahead of the system. Expect
falling temps Sunday... Mainly west, as the cold front passes
although increasing Sun will mute the fall during mid afternoon.

Highs Saturday mid 40s to lower 50s, Monday 50s to near 60, and
Monday 45 to 50.

Long term Monday night through Wednesday
The models are holding firm for the Monday night through Tuesday
night period. High pressure will linger over the region during that
time keeping skies no more than partly cloudy most of the time.

Yesterday it looked like we could see increasing precip chances on
Wednesday. That is still the case although the progression of the
mean features is a little slower than yesterday. Will go with small
chance pops during the day with higher pops Wednesday night through
Thursday. The models are similar tracking a low across the lakes on
Thursday and Thursday night. Some timing and track differences
persist but am confident enough in the practical weather to trend
pops up for the end of the period. Temperatures will remain above
normal and most if not all of the precip during the period will be
in the form of rain.

Aviation 18z Thursday through Tuesday
Much of the wintry mixed precipitation moved east out of the
region early this afternoon... Except from generally kcle
eastward where a few small pockets of rain snow remain. Either
way... The entire region should be dry by around 20z.

Otherwise... MVFR and ifr conditions expected today before ifr to
even possible lifr CIGS late tonight into tomorrow morning with
the next batch of precipitation.

Outlook... Non-vfr likely to dominate most of the time through
Saturday night.

Marine
No gales expected through Tuesday however Sunday winds will approach
30 knots from the southwest. For tonight expect northeast flow 10 to
15 knots turning southeast towards morning as high pressure over the
lakes moves east. Friday low pressure moves into the western lakes
turning southerly flow southwest around 15 knots. Friday night into
Saturday light flow will turn east Saturday as another high moves
across the lakes. Sunday deep low pressure crosses the western lakes
on its way to ontario. Lake erie winds will increase to 20 to 25
knots late Saturday night from the south and then turn southwest
Sunday 25 to 30 knots. Southwest winds diminish to 10 to 15 knots
by Monday morning as high pressure builds onto the lake from the
south. Light southwest flow will continue through Tuesday.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Greenawalt
near term... Greenawalt
short term... Tk
long term... Kubina
aviation... Riley
marine... Tk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 5 mi41 min ENE 23 G 25 1033.9 hPa
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH 27 mi41 min ENE 14 G 16 33°F 1033.1 hPa31°F
CBLO1 - Conneaut Breakwater Light, OH 40 mi59 min ENE 20 G 23 32°F 1033.5 hPa (-1.0)

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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S7
G11
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cleveland / Cuyahoga, OH20 mi74 minNNE 122.00 miFog/Mist36°F33°F93%1032.8 hPa

Wind History from CGF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN12NE8NE8NE7NE10--------------E8E10E12SE11NE11NE15E8NE10N10N10NE12NE14
1 day agoS12S15S12S15S15--------------NW7W13N12N11N10N11N8N10N10N12N12N10
2 days agoS15S11
G19
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S12
G23
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--------------S12S12SW514S14SW12SW11
G19
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S11S10S10S10S12

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.