Tuesday, September26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Detroit Beach, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:25AMSunset 7:24PM Tuesday September 26, 2017 2:10 PM EDT (18:10 UTC) Moonrise 12:32PMMoonset 10:30PM Illumination 35% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ162 Lake Erie Open Waters From Ripley To Buffalo Ny- Lake Erie Open Waters From Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Reno Beach To The Islands Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on-the-lake Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 907 Am Edt Tue Sep 26 2017
This afternoon..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..Variable winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..North winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less building to 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday..North winds 15 to 20 knots becoming east and diminishing to 10 knots or less. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
LEZ162 Expires:201709262015;;958939 FZUS61 KCLE 261307 GLFLE Open Lake Forecast for Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland OH 907 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Erie Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure 30.10 inches centered over the northeast United States will continue to weaken through tonight. A cold front will cross Lake Erie on Wednesday. Weak high pressure 30.00 inches will build east across the lake Wednesday night and Thursday. A stronger cold front will cross the lake on Friday. High pressure 30.30 inches will build across the lake this weekend. LEZ061-162>169-262015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Detroit Beach, MI
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location: 41.83, -83.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 261802
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
202 pm edt Tue sep 26 2017

Aviation
Upper level ridging will hold for another 12 to 18 hours across
southeastern michigan before a cold front finally pushes across the
area. Until then, looking at persistence ofVFR conditions with weak
southwesterly winds. The wind shift is expected to push across the
area in the 09-12z timeframe with the cold front itself likely
lagged. The advent of cold advection may lead to a period of MVFR
and potential ifr with a high likelihood for dry conditions along
the front.

For dtw... VFR through much of tonight with light wind. There
uncertainty regarding overall likelihood for MVFR and ifr post wind
shift or cold front at 11z. Feeling is still higher confidence for
MVFR by the late morning.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for ceiling 5000 ft or less but not until late Wednesday
morning.

Prev discussion
Issued at 315 am edt Tue sep 26 2017
discussion...

one more day with high temperatures topping out at 90 degrees, as
the trend of the cold front looks to be a bit slower. With 850 mb
temps progged to reach and slightly exceed 18 c this afternoon, high
confidence in maxes reaching 90 degrees or even slightly better based
on upstream observations yesterday and with the favorable light
southwest low level flow today, which should lead to fairly uniform
temperatures across southeast michigan, + - 2 degrees from 90.

Still favoring a dry or mainly dry frontal passage with little to no
upper level support PV advection, as local probabilistic sref
weighted guidance indicating pops under 30 percent. Instability
looks to be limited to a couple hundred j kg of mucape, and if there
is any activity, looks to be north of i-69, in the tail of the 850
mb low level jet.

With the surface cold front looking to come through Wednesday
morning, should allow detroit to hit 80 degrees on Wednesday before
the deeper cool air can become established. 925-850 mb temps then
falling into the mid single numbers Wednesday night, as pronounced
surface ridging arrives Thursday morning. MAX temperatures
potentially coming up just short of 70 degrees on Thursday, as 850 mb
temps look to only recover to around 6 c.

Seasonably strong upper level wave trough coming out of the gulf of
alaska will encompass the great lakes region on Friday, but remain
progressive, with the trough axis moving off the east coast by 00z
Sunday already, per 00z euro. Upper level northwest confluent flow
over the weekend will lead to dry conditions as the large area of
high pressure is slow to slide eastward. If the center of the high
remains parked over over the central great lakes Saturday night,
could see min temperatures dip into the upper 30s across the normally
colder spots. Fog could turn out to be an issue as well. With the
chilly airmass and limited mixing depths, looking at daytime temps
holding in the 60s. Forecast is mostly sunny for the weekend, but
always have to be leary of good diurnal CU up.

Building heights and increasing southwest flow early next week will
support another significant warm up, with 80 degrees not out of the
question by the time we get to Tuesday, but still big differences in
the position of the strong upper level ridge, based off the 00z
euro GFS canadian solutions.

Marine...

after one more day of warm conditions and light wind, a cold front
will cross the central great lakes late tonight through Wednesday
morning. The front will drop temperatures back down to readings more
typical for late september and produce a low chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Winds behind the front will turn northwest at
moderate speed, especially over the open waters of northern and
central lake huron where gusts around 30 knots will be possible
through Wednesday evening. Part of the forecast to monitor remains
wave height trends in the nearshore areas which are expected to
remain below criteria for small craft advisories due to the
northwest fetch. High pressure will settle over the region Thursday
followed quickly by another low pressure system and cold front due
Friday. This system will bring a reinforcement of colder air and
unstable marine conditions Friday and Friday night before rapid
improvement occurs with high pressure during the weekend.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Cb
discussion... Sf
marine... ... .Bt
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 3 mi31 min SE 5.1 G 5.1 77°F
45165 9 mi21 min NE 3.9 G 3.9 80°F 76°F70°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 15 mi41 min WNW 6 G 8 87°F 1015.4 hPa61°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 26 mi71 min Calm G 1 80°F 1015.3 hPa (-0.7)
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 34 mi41 min NE 2.9 G 5.1 78°F 1016.4 hPa72°F
45005 - W ERIE 28NM Northwest of Cleveland, OH 46 mi31 min S 1.9 G 1.9 76°F 75°F1015.8 hPa67°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 48 mi71 min NNE 8 G 8.9 78°F 1015.6 hPa (-0.3)
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 49 mi71 min SSE 7 G 8.9 80°F 1015.2 hPa (-1.1)

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Monroe, Custer Airport, MI12 mi80 minW 510.00 miFair88°F59°F39%1015.6 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI19 mi78 minSSE 610.00 miFair79°F69°F71%1015.6 hPa
Toledo - Toledo Executive Airport, OH22 mi78 minWSW 710.00 miFair88°F62°F42%1015.5 hPa
Lambertville, Toledo Suburban Airport, MI23 mi77 minSSW 510.00 miFair88°F64°F46%1015.6 hPa

Wind History from TTF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5E4SE6E5SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS6CalmCalmCalmSW3W3W5W6SW6
1 day agoSE3SE5SE7E4SE3CalmCalmE3E3CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4
2 days agoE5SE5E7E4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SE3SE3SE3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.