Sunday, May28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Detroit Beach, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:00AMSunset 9:01PM Sunday May 28, 2017 8:12 PM EDT (00:12 UTC) Moonrise 8:04AMMoonset 11:00PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ162 Lake Erie Open Waters From Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Reno Beach To The Islands Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- 405 Pm Edt Sun May 28 2017
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Showers and Thunderstorms likely early...then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late this evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday night..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..West winds around 10 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers Thursday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day...then a chance of showers Friday night. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LEZ162 Expires:201705290215;;358937 FZUS61 KCLE 282005 GLFLE OPEN LAKE FORECAST FOR LAKE ERIE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 405 PM EDT SUN MAY 28 2017 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE ERIE WAVES ARE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT - THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. OCCASIONAL WAVE HEIGHT IS THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/10 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. .SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE 29.70 INCHES WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN AND STALL NEAR JAMES BAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE THE OHIO VALLEY WILL HAVE A RIDGE AVERAGING 29.90 INCHES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A TROUGH WILL CROSS THE LAKE WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE 30.10 INCHES RETURNS ACROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY. LEZ162>165-290215-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Detroit Beach, MI
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location: 41.83, -83.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 282258
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
658 pm edt Sun may 28 2017

Aviation
Surface low pressure and a weak frontal boundary are now centered
over SE mi and will slowly exit to the east late this evening. By
00z the better instability will largely be just east of the
terminals, although a few lingering showers may persist past 01z.

The weak sfc gradient and added low level moisture from this
evenings rain may lend to the development of sct to perhaps some bkn
low clouds this evening. A push of drier low level air under light
westerly winds will scour out any lingering low moisture overnight,
leading to generally clear skies.

For dtw... Although earlier thunderstorm activity was largely
focused south and east of metro, the outflow has appeared to
stabilize the boundary layer. Recent radar and satellite data
suggest the better chances for convection through 00 to 01z will be
north of the airport, but still across the northern sections of metro
airspace.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* low in ceilings at or below 5000 ft this evening.

* low in thunderstorms impacting the airport this evening.

Prev discussion
Issued at 259 pm edt Sun may 28 2017
discussion...

scattered thunderstorms over far southern lower michigan on into
northern indiana and ohio will gradually expand in coverage as they
move northeast into area along an advancing warm front. Mlcapes of
near 1000 j kg along with deep layer shear of 30-35 knots will help
maintain some storm organization (as is evident by several of the
pulse type cells already garnering some structure this afternoon).

This will lead to primarily a risk of large hail and eventually
isolated damaging wind gusts if cells are able to organize into
small clusters. While low level shear is generally very weak, there
will be a small window for an isolated tornado threat along the warm
front as it edges into the far southern forecast area. Initial risk
of thunderstorms will generally be limited to the m-59 corridor on
south late this afternoon.

The approaching shortwave through and associated surface low forcing
this warm front northward will move into area this evening and bring
additional scattered showers and thunderstorms to a broader portion
of the area. While some strong storms still may occur, a lack of any
notable instability by that time should limit severe threat. This
activity will work east of area with the shortwave in the 10pm to
midnight time frame.

For the upcoming work week, there will be a general trend to cooler
weather into the Wednesday Thursday time frame as a broad upper
level trough expands over the area as large upper low over south
central canada wobbles southeast into the northern great lakes in
the wake of this current passing shortwave.

On Monday, mild weather with temperatures into the 70s is expected
as mean upper trough axis remains west of area during the day and
cold air advection does not begin until late in the day. In fact,
upped temperatures a degree or two from previous forecast. Expect
temperatures to back into the 60s Tuesday Wednesday as the upper low
settles into the vicinity. As this system lifts back into the mean
hudson bay position by late week, a moderation back into the 70s is
expected. Weather will be rather dry for much of the week, but may
become more active once the upper low does re-position further north
and more zonal looking upper flow develops and allows for better
moisture return into area with several shortwaves riding through the
mean westerlies.

Marine...

numerous showers and strong thunderstorms late today and this
evening over the marine waters. Storms over lake st. Clair and lake
erie may be severe. West to southwest winds will then develop
behind a cold front tonight, then strengthen Monday and
Tuesday as low pressure becomes stalled over northern ontario. Gusts
both days look to just top 20 knots for most marine areas, with
stronger speeds over saginaw bay possibly necessitating a small
craft advisory Monday and Tuesday.

Hydrology...

numerous showers and strong thunderstorms tracking through late
today and this evening. Basin average rainfall amounts are forecast
to range between one-quarter and one-half inch, but precipitation
totals will vary widely from location to location due to the hit and
miss nature of showers and thunderstorms. The more intense storms
will have the potential to produce isolated rainfall amounts of one
inch or greater, which could cause minor flooding in the low lying
and poor drainage areas. Showers and thunderstorms should end around
midnight, before scattered activity redevelops Monday afternoon.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Sc
discussion... Dg
marine... ... .Sf
hydrology... .Sf
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 3 mi32 min ESE 15 G 16 61°F
45165 9 mi22 min ESE 14 G 18 62°F 64°F1 ft59°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 15 mi42 min E 8 G 9.9 64°F 1005.6 hPa60°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 26 mi72 min ENE 8 G 12 60°F 1005.9 hPa (+0.7)
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 34 mi42 min E 8 G 9.9 61°F 1006.3 hPa58°F
45005 - W ERIE 28NM Northwest of Cleveland, OH 46 mi32 min NNE 5.8 G 5.8 60°F 59°F1006 hPa57°F
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 49 mi72 min SE 20 G 29 62°F 1003.7 hPa (-2.1)

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Monroe, Custer Airport, MI12 mi16 minSSE 410.00 miPartly Cloudy63°F59°F88%1005.4 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI19 mi19 minSSW 610.00 miFair63°F58°F86%1005.1 hPa
Toledo - Toledo Executive Airport, OH22 mi19 minE 1010.00 miThunderstorm in Vicinity65°F63°F93%1005.6 hPa
Lambertville, Toledo Suburban Airport, MI23 mi18 minE 410.00 miFair63°F60°F94%1005.1 hPa

Wind History from TTF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4S4CalmSE4E4CalmE3CalmCalmCalmE4E4E4E5E6E6E6SE7E7E7E6NW8SE6Calm
1 day agoSE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3SE6SE7E8SE10E8E8SE9S5SE4E5
2 days agoNW9NW6NW4NW4NW6NW5NW5NW6NW5NW5NW5N6NW8NW7NW5
G23
NW6NW5W9W8NW3NW3CalmE5SE4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.