Sunday, July23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Detroit Beach, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:18AMSunset 9:02PM Sunday July 23, 2017 4:43 AM EDT (08:43 UTC) Moonrise 5:33AMMoonset 8:15PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ162 Lake Erie Open Waters From Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Reno Beach To The Islands Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- 402 Am Edt Sun Jul 23 2017
Today..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming west. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms this afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms Wednesday night. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LEZ162 Expires:201707231430;;689661 FZUS61 KCLE 230802 GLFLE Open Lake Forecast for Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland OH 402 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Erie Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A weak cold front will drop across lake Erie this evening with a weak secondary cold front late Monday. High pressure 30.20 inches from the northern plains will move east to the central Great lakes by Tuesday morning and the east coast by Wednesday. A cold front will drop across the western and northern lakes on Wednesday and Lake Erie on Thursday. LEZ162>166-231430-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Detroit Beach, MI
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location: 41.83, -83.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 230701
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
301 am edt Sun jul 23 2017

Discussion
Thunderstorm chances remain the most notable forecast challenge for
today as ambiguity in surface parameters remain significant to the
eventual coverage nature of convection. First, low level convergence
to force convection is somewhat nebulous within weak gradient around
broad inverted troughing which extends from weak low to the east on
northwest to main shortwave and associated low pressure working into
the northern mississippi valley northern great lakes.

Lead convection over lake michigan wisconsin is forecast to weaken
or dissipate outright early this morning with additional showers or
storms then developing in weakly capped environment by midday. At
that point, forcing will be rather weak so do not expect initial
activity to be very well organized. To further complicate issues,
degree of instability by that time is highly questionable with the
rather extensive low stratus deck covering roughly the northeastern
2 3rd of the forecast area.

Better convergence and upper support from aforementioned shortwave
and associated cold front will provide a better chance at organized
storms from mid late afternoon into early evening. As this wave
progresses into the straits by early evening, upper flow will also
increase notably with 0-6km bulk shear AOA 30 knots. All of these
factors will increase the likelihood of strong to locally severe
storms late in the day, but as was noted previously, overall quality
of moisture instability remains questionable and will most likely
lead to relatively scattered activity. The best coverage of storms
looks to occur over the northern forecast area where forcing and
upper support are best. This, however, is assuming the stratus now
covering area scatters out to some extent.

Surface high pressure will then build into area in the wake of this
cold front, providing somewhat cooler and notably less humid airmass
during the Monday Tuesday time frame. Expect Monday to be especially
cool as northeast flow behind this system draws across lake huron
into the region. Afternoon temperatures will range from the lower
70s near the lake to mid upper 70s further south southwest. Highs
will moderate back in the upper 70s lower 80s on Tuesday, but low
humidity levels will persist.

Increased south southwest flow between exiting surface high and next
approaching canadian shortwave and attendant trough cold front will
lead to warmer and more humid conditions by Wednesday into Thursday.

This will also be the time frame for the next chance of showers and
storms (Wednesday night into Thursday) as the cold front progresses
through the region. A return to cooler less humid weather can also
be expected after the passage of this front. While this transition
will begin late Thursday, it will be most noticed Friday Saturday as
high temperatures edge back into the 70s lower 80s. Lows in the 50s
to lower 60s will also bring a number of pleasant nights.

Marine
Low pressure tracking through the area will bring fairly light winds
to western lake erie and lake st clair today. Lake huron will remain
along and north of the low track, promoting stronger east winds
today over the northern portion of the lake, with sustained speeds
even reaching about 20 knots today. A cold front will drop through
the area late today and tonight, triggering scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the area and allowing winds to increase from
the northeast over all of lake huron. Winds will then turn north
late tonight and Monday as the low tracks through the eastern great
lakes and high pressure builds into the upper midwest and then
finally into michigan late. While winds will increase over all
marine areas, lake huron will once again become the focus for
concern as gusts top 20 knots and the long fetch over the water
allows wave heights to grow in excess of 4 feet over saginaw bay and
across the nearshore waters from port austin to harbor beach. Small
craft advisories are in effect late tonight through Monday. High
pressure settling in overhead will then allow for light winds and
improving wave conditions by Monday night.

Prev discussion
Issued at 1157 pm edt Sat jul 22 2017
aviation...

very moist low level environment firmly entrenched across the
southeast michigan airspace overnight. Steady southward expansion
of lower stratus underway, with an eventual reduction into ifr
becoming increasing likely for all locations per recent satellite
trends. Fog development remains more contingent on winds eventually
decoupling, but there remains the potential for a corridor of more
dense fog to emerge toward sunrise. Slow improvement through the
latter half of the morning, with a more progressive upward trend in
cigs expected during the afternoon as greater mixing ensues in
advance of a cold front. Frontal passage will provide a window
during the afternoon period for possible tsra shra. Drier
conditions will return Sunday night.

For dtw... A combination of low stratus and fog expected to emerge
during the early-mid morning period. Low potential for conditions
to dip into lifr, particularly if dense fog develops.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* low in thunderstorms Sunday afternoon.

* high in ceilings at or below 5000 feet this afternoon through
Sunday morning.

* low for vsby at or below 1 4 mile Sunday morning.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Beach hazards statement from late tonight through Monday evening
for miz049.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory from 8 am to 8 pm edt Monday for lhz421-422-
441.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Discussion... Dg
marine... ... .Hlo
aviation... ..Mr
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 3 mi44 min NNW 13 G 14 73°F
45165 9 mi24 min NNW 7.8 G 9.7 74°F 78°F2 ft68°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 15 mi44 min NNE 1.9 G 5.1 71°F 1008.3 hPa (-0.5)67°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 26 mi44 min NNW 8 G 9.9 75°F 1007.1 hPa (-0.5)
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 34 mi44 min NW 8.9 G 11 76°F 1008.5 hPa (-0.4)73°F
45005 - W ERIE 28NM Northwest of Cleveland, OH 46 mi34 min NNW 9.7 G 12 75°F 78°F1007.4 hPa71°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 48 mi44 min SW 6 G 8 73°F 1007.5 hPa (-0.3)
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 49 mi44 min NW 4.1 G 7 72°F 1008.1 hPa (-0.7)

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Monroe, Custer Airport, MI12 mi72 minN 310.00 miFair69°F67°F95%1007.8 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI19 mi51 minNNW 510.00 miFair70°F66°F87%1007.8 hPa
Toledo - Toledo Executive Airport, OH22 mi51 minNNW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F70°F94%1007.9 hPa
Lambertville, Toledo Suburban Airport, MI23 mi50 minN 07.00 miFair67°F65°F95%1008.1 hPa

Wind History from TTF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4CalmCalmSW4S3S4SW6SW6W4SW9W8W8W8
G14
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NW6NW3CalmW3CalmW4N5N4Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmNE3SE3E3E4S4S6CalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4S4S3Calm
2 days agoCalmS4SW5SW7W7W13
G17
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CalmW6W7NW8CalmSW7SW4SW4SW4CalmSW3W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.