Monday, May20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Lakeville, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:17AMSunset 8:03PM Monday May 20, 2019 11:33 AM EDT (15:33 UTC) Moonrise 10:00PMMoonset 6:45AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ234 Buzzards Bay- 717 Am Edt Mon May 20 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday morning...
Today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt this afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Areas of fog. A slight chance of showers with isolated tstms this morning. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Areas of fog. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed night..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri night..E winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 717 Am Edt Mon May 20 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Low pres will track across quebec today and drag a cold front across the waters tonight. Low pres will continue to intensify Tue as it moves east into the canadian maritimes...bringing a period of 30 to 35 northwest wind gusts to the near shore waters. High pres then builds in from the west on Wed before moving east of the waters Thu. Low pres then may track across the waters late Thu into early Fri. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Lakeville, MA
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location: 41.84, -70.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 201451
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
1051 am edt Mon may 20 2019

Synopsis
Warm, summer-like day ahead of a sweeping cold front later this
afternoon into evening with isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms, some of which may be strong to severe. Dry, cool
air building in overnight. Seasonable weather with windy conditions
Tuesday. Dry weather continues Wednesday into Thursday with less
wind, then a period of showers will likely impact the region some-
time late Thursday into early Friday. Summer like warmth may return
by the end of next weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
11 am update ...

* highlights ...

- isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, some of
which may be strong to severe
- main threats: gusty winds, possibly damaging. Small hail,
heavy rain perhaps leading to localized flooding, and frequent
lightning.

- timing: 2 to 9 pm mainly W NW of the boston to providence
corridor
* discussion ...

now:
additional energy sweeping through invigorating some shower activity
across N W ma. Breaks developing behind the cluster of showers, already
seeing conditions warming up nicely. Beginning to see surface instability
build over W new england into upstate ny. Should see clearing trends
continue W to e, however low clouds and fog holding along the s-coast
as S SW winds persist, increasing across the interior with 10-15 mph
sustained, gusts up around 20 mph with mixing. Higher dewpoint air
that is advecting over cooler ocean waters, expect the CAPE and
islands to remain socked in most of today, marine air getting into
s-coastal ri and ma throughout. Highs getting into the 80s except
along the S SE coast. Humid with dewpoints in the 60s.

Later:
broadly speaking, great lakes shortwave ejecting northeast through
cyclonic flow with attendant h3 jet streak diffluence and subsequent
height falls. Surface reflection cold front ahead of which a fairly
moist, unstable airmass resides with daytime heating. Sweeping thru
this afternoon, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop with potential threats of strong to damaging
winds, small hail, heavy rain perhaps leading to localized flooding,
and frequent lightning.

Small-scale, instability building to +2k j kg CAPE within fairly uni-
directional sw-ne shear already exhibited by vertical wind profilers.

Both 0-6 km bulk shear (40-50 kts) and mean wind parallel to one
another as well as along the cold front. Corfidi vectors also in a
sw-ne manner parallel 0-6 km winds shear. Destabilizing boundary
layer, well-mixed to h8 with subsequent inverted-v profiles, but above
which are poor along with indications of drier air which can already
be seen in the latest water vapor satellite in wake of morning short-
wave activity overnight thunderstorms. Forecast model h5 dewpoint
depressions around 15-20c. K-indices just above 30 threshold but total-
totals below 50. Localized theta-e along the cold front, low-level
storm development with freezing levels to 10 kft, precipitable waters
to 1.5 inches, heavy rain is a threat and think any flooding will
be very localized as these storms will be moving quick.

Overall, thinking multi-cellular storm mode which has the potential
for line-echo wave patterns towards the northeast as updrafts develop
and both deep-layer shear and mean wind are parallel sw-ne, that in
addition to squall-like structures perhaps along the cold front with
attendant lift of the warm-moist airmass. Uni-directional, will aid
in the strong to damaging wind threat. Small hail possible if strong
updrafts develop, but so much dry air, not incredibly concerned. With
bulk shear, always the threat of rotating storms, low risk of a
tornado. Timing roughly 2 pm to 9 pm for thunderstorm activity.

Following href trends closely, favor the nssl WRF with the morning
convection. There does appear to be a tone-down of outcomes to which
we have to agree given the environment noted above. For what it's
worth, in closing, href probabilities seem to hint on activity over
n new england perhaps with better synoptics and low-level forcing,
more moisture aloft, stronger updraft helicity ... And off the mid-
atlantic coast with greater instability out ahead of lift associated
with the cold front. S new england in the go-between, that's why
a lean to more isolated to scattered activity.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Tuesday
Tonight...

the threat for a few strong to severe thunderstorms will come to an
end by mid evening as instability diminishes. Otherwise, much drier
air will work into the region behind a cold front late tonight. Low
temperatures should drop into the upper 40s to the middle 50s by
daybreak Tuesday and it will become a bit breezy.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
Highlights...

* dry and windy Tue with more seasonable temps
* continued dry weather Wed into Thu with less wind
* a period of showers possible late Thu into early fri
* summer like warmth may return next Sunday
overview...

closed mid level low moving SE across maine Tue then lifting NE into
the maritimes Wed will lower heights across sne with NW flow aloft
bringing temps back to near seasonable normals. Anomalous
subtropical ridge builds across SE CONUS through the end of the week
and into the weekend bringing major heat to SE us. Sne will be on
northern periphery of the ridge and vulnerable to shortwave passages
given nearby polar jet. A fairly robust shortwave riding over the
ridge into new eng Thu night Fri will amplify trough to the east
and keep heat suppressed to the south, and also bring increased risk
of showers. Northern periphery of the SE CONUS ridge builds back
into new eng next weekend with another weak shortwave approaching.

Warmer temps return by Sunday.

Tuesday...

mid level low slides SE across maine with cooler and blustery nw
flow across sne. Cold pool aloft with -20c 500 mb temps remains well
to the north across northern new eng where best chance for a few
showers. It should be a dry day with a mix of Sun and clouds as
diurnal CU develops. Gusty NW winds expected during the afternoon
given decent cold advection and well mixed boundary layer. Soundings
support gusts 30-40 mph mid late afternoon. Near seasonable temps 65-
70, except cooler higher terrain.

Wednesday into Thursday...

high pres builds into the region resulting in less wind and temps
remaining near or slightly below normal. Lots of sunshine Wed then
increasing clouds Thu as mid level shortwave approaches from the nw
with warm advection developing. It should remain dry thu, but if
shortwave is faster than models indicate, a few showers could spill
into the region in the afternoon.

Thursday night into Friday...

fairly robust shortwave dives SE across new eng with attending
frontal wave moving across the region. This will lead to increasing
risk of showers Thu night which may linger into Fri morning, then
improving conditions as shortwave exits. Cooler Fri with easterly
flow bringing below normal temps. May end up cooler than forecast
with potential for 50s in eastern new eng.

Saturday into Sunday...

looks mainly dry Sat with seasonably mild temps as sfc ridge in
control. Another shortwave and approaching cold front may bring some
showers Sat night into Sun but this is low confidence. It does
appear that considerably warmer temps will return Sun with SW flow.

Temps should reach well into 70s with some 80s possible in the
interior.

Aviation 14z Monday through Friday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through tonight ... High confidence.

Today and tonight...

near CAPE and islands ... Lingering ifr lifr with low CIGS and
vsbys. Elsewhere ... Low-endVFR sct-bkn cigs. Few-sct shra and
tsra roughly 19z-1z sweeping nw-se across the terminal airspace
mostly NW of pvd-ghg. +ra with 24020g30kt possible with any tsra,
MVFR as well with 010-030cb. Otherwise, winds around 20015g20kt
improving 1z-6z especially along the S se-coast. W NW winds at
around 28015g25kt, strongest along the high terrain.

Kbos terminal...

few-sct tsra threat 21z-1z.

Kbdl terminal...

few-sct tsra threat 20z-0z.

Outlook Tuesday through Friday ...

Tuesday:VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt.

Tuesday night through Wednesday:VFR. Breezy.

Wednesday night:VFR.

Thursday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance shra.

Thursday night: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Breezy.

Chance shra, isolated tsra.

Friday: mainly MVFR, with areasVFR possible. Breezy. Slight
chance shra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through tonight ... High confidence.

Today...

good mixing over the land should generate near shore SW small craft
wind gusts of 20 to 30 knots today. Long SW fetch will also result
in 3 to 6 foot seas. Small craft headlines are posted for all waters.

Lastly, areas of fog will be locally dense especially this morning.

Tonight...

a few strong thunderstorms may impact some of our waters adjacent
to the E ma coast early this evening. Otherwise... Winds shift nw
later tonight with renewed 20 to 25 knot wind gusts developing by
daybreak. Fog during the evening across our southern waters should
improve overnight as drier air works into the region.

Outlook Tuesday through Friday ...

Tuesday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Tuesday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Wednesday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.

Wednesday night through Thursday: winds less than 25 kt.

Thursday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Friday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Tuesday for anz230>237-250-
251-254>256.

Synopsis... Kjc frank
near term... Kjc frank sipprell
short term... Frank
long term... Kjc
aviation... Kjc frank sipprell
marine... Kjc frank


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 16 mi40 min 71°F 56°F1009.6 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 16 mi40 min SSW 12 G 15 67°F 1009.2 hPa
FRXM3 17 mi40 min 71°F 62°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 24 mi40 min SE 13 G 15 61°F 58°F1008.9 hPa
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 25 mi40 min S 8.9 G 11 67°F 55°F1008.2 hPa
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 26 mi40 min SW 4.1 G 9.9 71°F 1009.4 hPa
PRUR1 26 mi40 min 61°F 58°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 26 mi109 min SSW 6 66°F 1010 hPa60°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 26 mi40 min 57°F 55°F1010.3 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 28 mi109 min WNW 5.1 64°F 1011 hPa61°F
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 31 mi40 min S 9.9 G 13 60°F 51°F1009.6 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 31 mi40 min WSW 12 G 14 71°F 55°F1009.2 hPa
44090 32 mi34 min 52°F2 ft
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 36 mi40 min 75°F 1008.1 hPa
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 38 mi44 min SE 7.8 G 7.8 60°F 53°F2 ft1007.7 hPa (-1.4)60°F
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 42 mi34 min SW 16 G 19 54°F1010.6 hPa (-0.5)
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 49 mi44 min SSW 12 G 14 54°F 3 ft1009 hPa (+0.0)54°F

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA6 mi42 minSSW 710.00 miFair75°F63°F66%1008.8 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA11 mi41 minSSW 1110.00 miFair71°F64°F81%1009.1 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA12 mi42 minSW 13 G 1810.00 miFair76°F64°F67%1008.9 hPa
Marshfield Airport, MA22 mi59 minSW 11 G 1810.00 miFair75°F66°F74%1008.5 hPa

Wind History from TAN (wind in knots)
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1 day ago3N6Calm3SW5S11
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2 days ago54S7S8
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SW6S5S5S4SW3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3NW3NW6
G14
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G17
W9N7

Tide / Current Tables for Taunton, Taunton River, Massachusetts
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Taunton
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 05:39 AM EDT     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:40 AM EDT     2.95 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:28 PM EDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:00 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:00 PM EDT     3.50 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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32.21.40.60.1-0.2-0.20.10.91.92.82.92.621.30.60.1-0.1-0.10.41.12.23.13.5

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:53 AM EDT     -4.89 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:05 AM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:44 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:14 AM EDT     4.65 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 11:35 AM EDT     -0.22 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:20 PM EDT     -4.61 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:27 PM EDT     0.20 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:27 PM EDT     4.35 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 09:57 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:40 PM EDT     -0.14 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-3.5-4.6-4.9-4.5-3.4-13.14.24.64.53.92.6-2.2-3.9-4.6-4.5-3.7-2.22.33.74.34.33.82.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.