Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Lakeville, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:33AMSunset 4:24PM Thursday November 15, 2018 6:15 AM EST (11:15 UTC) Moonrise 1:53PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 49% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ234 Buzzards Bay- 358 Am Est Thu Nov 15 2018
.gale warning in effect from this evening through Friday afternoon...
Today..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt this afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less. Rain likely this afternoon.
Tonight..E winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt after midnight. Seas around 3 ft, building to 6 ft after midnight. Patchy fog. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..S winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Rain, mainly in the morning. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 358 Am Est Thu Nov 15 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pressure drifts to the maritimes today. A coastal storm moves up from the carolinas bringing rain and snow and strong winds to the waters late today through Friday. High pressure returns for the weekend. A cold front moves through on Monday. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Lakeville, MA
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location: 41.84, -70.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 150918
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
418 am est Thu nov 15 2018

Synopsis
Cold high pressure over the region this morning will pull
northeast over the maritimes. Low pressure over the carolinas
will move up the coast today and spread an initial period of
snow into southern new england around or shortly after sunset.

As this low tracks along the south coast of new england
tonight and Friday it will move milder air in from the east,
changing the snow to rain along and near the coast and changing
snow to ice inland. Dry conditions and cool temperatures move
in Friday night through most of the weekend as high pressure
builds across. A weak low may bring patchy light rain and or
snow late Sunday into Monday. Another shot of colder air moves
in by the middle of next week, though it should be mainly dry.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Departing high pressure brings dry weather for most of the day
today. Cold air damming will maintain below normal temps through
the day. Soundings at 00z showed the base of the inversion
around 850 mb. With increasing clouds today we used a more
shallow mixing, with resulting MAX temps in the 30s.

Consensus among the models brings measurable pcpn to long
island around 18z and to the nh border 00z. This timing would
suggest initial snow reaching southern new england around 20z or
21z... 3 or 4 pm... And spreading north to the nh border by 7
pm.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Friday
Tonight...

strong low level winds are south of southern new england
around 00z 7 pm and move over the region around 03z 10 pm.

Favorable upper jet dynamics also approach at this time. Cross
sections show the strongest lift starting at this time, reaching
50-70 mb hour. Temperature profiles are initially favorable for
snow, but change to sleet and then rain overnight as surface
winds increase out of the east and bring milder temps from the
east during the night.

Such location may lead to differences within individual forecast
zones. For example, in suffolk co mass the airport may show a
coating to an inch or two, while interior parts of boston have
have 2-4 inches. The greatest accumulations should be along the
nh border from N central mass to the berkshires.

The low level winds will also affect parts of the south coastal
zones, especially CAPE cod and the islands. With winds of 60-70
kts in this jet, we have potential for 40 kt east-northeast
winds gusts in this area.

For headlines, we were tempted to go with a winter storm warning
in our northwest zones, but with forecast snow amounts
borderline at best we opted to convert the ws watch to winter
weather advisories in all remaining inland zones. All previous
winter weather advisories continue, as does the wind advisory on
cape cod and islands.

Friday...

low pressure passes CAPE cod Friday morning, and moves off to
the maritimes in the afternoon. Best lift moves off to the
northeast with the coastal low. Expect precipitation to diminish
during the afternoon as the support moves off.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
Highlights...

* colder than normal temperatures linger through most of the
period
* weak low pressure may bring periods of rain and or snow late
sun into mon
overview...

low pressure moves into the gulf of maine Friday evening as the
mid level steering flow becomes nearly zonal across the
northern tier states through the weekend. Will see mainly dry
conditions through most of Sunday, though it will be chilly.

Noting a digging h5 trough heading S out of central canada and
hudson bay by late Sunday, while another system across the south
central states may bring rain and or snow toward the region
later Sunday into Monday. H5 vortex spins across quebec, another
shot of cold air may shift SE toward the northeast u.S. Monday
night into Wednesday.

Details...

Friday night into Saturday...

as the low moves away from the region Friday evening, some snow
showers might linger for a time across NW mass. Otherwise, will
see mainly dry conditions as overnight lows run close to
seasonal levels. The mid level steering flow becomes nearly
zonal by Saturday as high pressure slips south of the region.

This will keep a w-nw flow in place.

Wind gusts up to around 25 kt may develop as a low level jet
from h95-h85 moves across with decent low level lapse rates.

Appears the best shot for the higher gusts will be across cape
cod and the islands as well as the higher inland terrain. Expect
high temps to range from the upper 30s across the E slopes of
the berkshires to the mid-upper 40s across the coastal plain.

Saturday night through Monday...

with the fast flow aloft, will see another quick moving cold
front push across Sat night. Should be mainly dry, though a few
snow showers may develop across NW mass. Most of the precip
looks to remain N and W of the region into Sunday. Another shot
of colder air works in Saturday night as temps bottom out mainly
in the 20s, except the 30s along the immediate shoreline.

The front that pushed through Sat may linger near or S of the
region in the w-sw flow aloft, as another weak wave moves along
it. 00z models vary on their solutions on how this low will
affect the region, but noting fair agreement that a batch of
light snow moves across later Sunday into Monday. Could see
light snow and or rain along S coastal areas. Not a whole lot of
moisture with this system, but some locations may see some
light snow accumulations mainly across the interior. Temps on
Monday will run about 5 to 10 degrees below seasonal normals.

Tuesday and Wednesday...

h5 trough will linger across the northeast during this
timeframe, bringing another shot of cold air. May see some snow
showers linger across the E slopes of the berkshires into the
northern ct valley both days. Also, as the colder air moves over
the milder ocean waters, may see some snow showers develop
across the mid and outer CAPE as well as nantucket.

Current forecast suggests that the highs on Tuesday may run
15-20 degrees below seasonal normals. Some readings across the
higher inland terrain may not break freezing! The temps should
recover somewhat on Wednesday, but will remain below normal.

Aviation 09z Thursday through Monday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday ... High confidence.

Today...

vfr to start but MVFR toward 22z 5 pm as snow overspreads this
region. Snowfall hourly rates may approach 1 inch per hour
toward 00z from bdl-pvd and points southward.

Tonight...

MVFR at the start but then lowering to ifr lifr by 03z 10 pm.

Snow heavy at times 00z-03z but then changing over to rain south
coast. Snow and sleet changes over to freezing rain inland with
all rain in the coastal plain. Strong NE winds develop south
coast after 06z and may bring low level wind shear after
midnight.

Friday...

ifr lifr in the morning with rain showers except freezing rain
possible interior. Strong NE winds and wind shear early cape
cod and islands. Conditions improving to MVFR and thenVFR
during the afternoon with wind shift from the west.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in TAF thru 00z fri. Snow may
hold off until after 00z Fri then briefly heavy until about
02z-04z. Coating upwards to 2 inches possible. Low prob of 3 to
4 inches but coating to 2 inches more likely as of now.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in TAF thru 18z thu. Snow
arrives 21z-00z with hourly snowfall rates approaching 1 inch
per hour possible toward 00z and thereafter until 03z before
changing to sleet and freezing rain.

Outlook Friday night through Monday ...

Friday night:VFR. Windy with local gusts to 30 kt.

Saturday through Saturday night:VFR. Breezy.

Sunday: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Slight chance sn.

Sunday night: mainly ifr, with local MVFR possible. Chance sn,
slight chance ra.

Monday: MVFR ifr conditions possible. Breezy. Chance sn, slight
chance ra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday ... High confidence.

Today...

light wind as high pressure moves off toward the maritimes.

Seas may build to 5 feet south of block island late in the day.

Tonight...

northeast wind increases to gale force with vsby reduced less
than a mile initially in rain or rain snow. Rain expected
overnight. Seas continue to build overnight, reaching 10-15
feet on the exposed waters.

Friday...

gale center moves near CAPE cod during the morning, then off to
the maritimes during the afternoon. East winds in the morning
become northwest in the afternoon. Seas of 10-15 feet in the
morning diminish in the afternoon. Expect rain to taper off
during the afternoon.

Outlook Friday night through Monday ...

Friday night: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with
local gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft.

Saturday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Saturday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft.

Sunday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Sunday night: winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain.

Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Monday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Slight chance of rain.

Hydrology
Renewed river flooding is possible across ri and eastern ma with
0.50 to 1.0 inches of rainfall possible tonight into Friday
after a few inches of snow first. Will have to watch this
closely.

Tides coastal flooding
Astronomical tides are very low (below 9 ft) in boston. Thus
with this upcoming storm worse case scenario would be isolated
minor flooding possible.

Climate
Record low temps for today nov 15
bos 17 in 1933
pvd 18 in 1905
bdl 17 in 1905 and 1933
orh 14 in 1933
record low MAX temps for today nov 15
bos 30 in 1933
pvd 30 in 1933
bdl 30 in 1933
orh 30 in 1972 and 1996

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... Winter weather advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 7 am est
Friday for ctz002>004.

Ma... Wind advisory from midnight tonight to noon est Friday for
maz022>024.

Winter weather advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 1 am est
Friday for maz017>021.

Winter weather advisory from 7 pm this evening to 7 am est
Friday for maz004>007-009>016-026.

Winter weather advisory from 7 pm this evening to 9 am est
Friday for maz002-003-008.

Ri... Wind advisory from midnight tonight to noon est Friday for
riz008.

Winter weather advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 1 am est
Friday for riz001>007.

Marine... Gale warning from 10 pm this evening to 4 pm est Friday for
anz232>235-237.

Gale warning from 1 am to 4 pm est Friday for anz230.

Gale warning from midnight tonight to 4 pm est Friday for
anz231-251.

Small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 7 pm est Friday
for anz236.

Gale warning from 1 am to 6 pm est Friday for anz250.

Gale warning from 9 pm this evening to 6 pm est Friday for
anz254-255.

Gale warning from 9 pm this evening to 4 pm est Friday for
anz256.

Synopsis... Wtb evt
near term... Wtb
short term... Wtb
long term... Evt
aviation... Wtb evt
marine... Wtb evt
hydrology... Staff
tides coastal flooding... Staff
climate... Staff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 16 mi28 min 25°F 51°F1036.6 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 16 mi28 min N 7 G 8.9 26°F 1036.4 hPa
FRXM3 17 mi28 min 25°F 10°F
PVDR1 24 mi28 min N 7 G 11 25°F 1036.5 hPa7°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 24 mi28 min N 7 G 11 26°F 47°F1036.5 hPa
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 25 mi28 min NE 6 G 9.9 25°F 45°F1036 hPa
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 26 mi28 min NE 8.9 G 14 27°F 1036.2 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 26 mi91 min NNW 4.1 25°F 1036 hPa8°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 26 mi28 min 27°F 50°F1035.8 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 28 mi91 min 2.9 25°F 1037 hPa9°F
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 31 mi76 min N 14 G 16 26°F 1036 hPa (-0.0)
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 31 mi28 min NE 8 G 11 26°F 45°F1036 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 31 mi34 min NNW 8 G 11 26°F 49°F1036.3 hPa
44090 32 mi46 min 52°F3 ft
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 36 mi28 min 23°F 1036.6 hPa
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 38 mi26 min NNW 7.8 G 14 26°F 51°F2 ft1036 hPa (+0.4)15°F
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 42 mi26 min NNW 14 G 18 29°F 49°F1 ft1035.4 hPa21°F
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 49 mi26 min N 12 G 18 29°F 4 ft1035.5 hPa (+0.4)19°F

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA6 mi24 minNNW 310.00 miFair23°F7°F50%1036.3 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA11 mi23 minVar 410.00 miFair24°F10°F55%1035.9 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA12 mi24 minNW 610.00 miFair27°F9°F46%1036.1 hPa
Marshfield Airport, MA22 mi21 minW 510.00 miFair23°F10°F58%1036.2 hPa

Wind History from TAN (wind in knots)
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NW7NW9NW6N4NW8N7NW4N7N66NW74N4CalmN3
1 day agoS5SE10
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalm3W4W56S85S5CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE3CalmCalmCalmE4E8E8E5Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Taunton, Taunton River, Massachusetts
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Taunton
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:06 AM EST     2.19 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:34 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:12 AM EST     0.70 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 12:53 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:28 PM EST     2.38 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:23 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:00 PM EST     0.64 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:23 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.92.22.11.81.41.10.80.70.811.21.522.32.42.11.71.30.90.70.60.70.9

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:00 AM EST     -0.16 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:38 AM EST     -3.63 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:31 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:43 AM EST     0.15 knots Slack
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 11:34 AM EST     3.26 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 12:51 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:00 PM EST     -0.03 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:21 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:58 PM EST     -3.83 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 09:06 PM EST     0.08 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:21 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.63.22.5-0.1-2.7-3.5-3.6-3.1-2.11.32.63.23.22.92.30.3-2.6-3.5-3.8-3.5-2.7-0.92.43.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.