Thursday, May23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Riverside, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:22AMSunset 8:13PM Thursday May 23, 2019 10:33 AM CDT (15:33 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 9:27AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ741 Expires:201905232115;;331623 Fzus53 Klot 231438 Nshlot Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Chicago/romeoville Il 938 Am Cdt Thu May 23 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10 Percent Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered. Lmz740>742-232115- Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 938 Am Cdt Thu May 23 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 7 pm cdt this evening...
Rest of today..West winds 20 to 25 kt. A few gusts to 30 kt through early this afternoon. Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Tonight..North winds 5 to 10 kt becoming northeast after midnight. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves subsiding to 1 ft or less.
Friday..East winds 10 to 15 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Friday night..South winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southwest after midnight. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
LMZ741


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Riverside, IL
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location: 41.84, -87.82     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 231136
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
636 am cdt Thu may 23 2019

Short term
Through tonight...

317 am... Main forecast concern this period is possible additional
thunderstorms early Friday morning.

Strongest storms have shifted east of the CWA ending the severe
threat. Light rain will continue to end from east to west and as
it does there will be stronger southwesterly winds gusting into
the 40 mph range possible.

The rest of today into this evening is expected to be dry with
gusty westerly winds perhaps into the 25-30 mph range. Winds
appear to diminish during the mid late afternoon as they slowly
turn northwesterly by evening. A cold front will move across the
area this evening shifting winds northeasterly. Temps starting in
the 60s this morning should easily allow highs in the upper 70s
north to lower 80s south with plenty of sunshine.

There will be another chance for thunderstorms late tonight into
Friday morning but there remains some timing uncertainty. Much of
the guidance is dry through 06z with the potential for activity to
be spreading into the area before daybreak Friday morning. For now
have increasing pops between 09z-12z but changes to this timing
are possible with later forecasts. These storms are expected to be
elevated and heavy rain is possible. Cms

Long term
340 am cdt
Friday through Wednesday...

for it only being about 24 hours away there is considerable
uncertainty in how things will play out for Friday. Models are in
agreement with the general evolution of things but the devil is in
the details and slight timing differences could make for
considerably different outcomes.

As addressed in the short term discussion, the general consensus is
that early Thursday night will be quiet with ridging aloft and the
frontal boundary and better moisture pushed well to our south. It
would then potentially become more active toward morning as the
ridge axis slides east, shortwave energy moves overhead at upper
levels, and pronounced moisture convergence develops at mid-lower
levels but with the surface warm front well to our southwest.

Continued elevated shortwave passages are shown to persist into the
morning while low level moisture begins to increase with the
approach of the warm front. Mid level moisture convergence may be
less favorably located north and west of the area during the late
morning, so there could be a period of lower precip chances after
the morning activity and before something else gets going later in
the day. The best chances of activity during the afternoon would
appear to be in our northwest where support aloft is most favorable.

For Friday evening the position of the warm front will be a key
question. There is a good chance that part of it will be held up
against the south end of the cold lake and across the lakeside
counties in illinois, but models differ in how far north the primary
portion of the front will get by evening. If it does hang up over
northern illinois by the time the upper ridge pushes farther east
and allows for more vigorous shortwave energy to work into the area
aloft, a busy evening could be in store. SPC continues to carry a
slight risk for most of the area on Friday as of its latest outlook.

And even if the warm front pushes north of the area, the energy
aloft and considerable low level moisture should support periods of
thunderstorms during the evening and overnight into Saturday.

Beyond Friday, thinking is similar to previous forecasts so we will
refer to earlier discussions for additional details.

Lenning

Aviation
For the 12z tafs...

636 am... Forecast concerns this period include...

gusty westerly winds today.

A cold front wind shift northeast this evening.

Chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday morning.

Westerly winds are expected to increase this morning with gusts
into the lower mid 20 kt range. Winds may begin to diminish by
mid late afternoon as they turn more northwesterly. A period of
northerly winds under 10kts is likely this evening then winds will
turn northeasterly as a cold front moves south across the area.

Winds will remain easterly into Friday morning.

Precip thunder trends for late tonight into Friday morning remain
uncertain. Its possible the best instability remains west of the
area with only shower activity across the area... And perhaps still
after 12z Friday. Given this uncertainty have added vicinity
thunder at rfd and only vicinity shower at the rest of the
terminals. Cms

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

In... None.

Lm... None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CNII2 11 mi18 min WSW 11 G 17 68°F 41°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 14 mi33 min W 23 G 26
JAKI2 14 mi93 min WNW 8.9 G 17 70°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 17 mi33 min WSW 5.1 G 12 71°F 1015.5 hPa (+1.4)50°F
45174 22 mi23 min W 12 G 16 60°F 2 ft1015.5 hPa48°F
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 36 mi49 min W 21 G 25 65°F
45186 37 mi33 min WSW 18 G 23 61°F 50°F1 ft
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 38 mi53 min W 5.1 G 7 60°F 1016.9 hPa
45187 45 mi33 min W 16 G 23 61°F 49°F1 ft
45170 46 mi23 min WSW 5.8 G 5.8 56°F 52°F1 ft51°F
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 49 mi33 min SW 14 G 15 60°F 52°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Last
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S11
G18
S14
G20
S9
G18
S16
G21
S11
G17
S16
G22
S16
G24
S13
G24
S13
G19
S13
G17
S12
G19
S9
G14
S11
G20
S10
G17
S11
G21
SW12
G20
SW11
G15
SW11
G16
SW6
G11
SW8
G12
SW5
SW4
G8
W8
G15
W5
G12
1 day
ago
NE10
G14
NE10
G13
NE11
G14
NE12
G15
NE14
G17
E11
G15
NE11
NE9
G12
E10
G13
E13
G17
E11
G16
E12
G17
E13
G18
E13
G22
S8
G14
--
NE4
E14
G19
SE2
G5
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G10
SE6
G9
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G10
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G15
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G17
2 days
ago
N9
G13
N10
G13
N8
G11
N8
N7
G11
NE7
G11
NE7
N5
N6
N6
G9
N6
NW2
N5
G8
N8
N8
N4
G7
NE12
G15
NE9
NE8
G11
NE10
E8
G14
E11
G15
E11
G16
NE9
G12

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago, Chicago Midway Airport, IL5 mi40 minW 16 G 2810.00 miA Few Clouds70°F46°F44%1015.1 hPa
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL11 mi42 minW 17 G 2510.00 miA Few Clouds67°F45°F45%1015.3 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL19 mi41 minW 14 G 2310.00 miFair69°F45°F42%1015.5 hPa
Lewis University Airport, IL22 mi58 minWNW 1410.00 miFair67°F51°F59%1016.9 hPa
Chicago / West Chicago, Dupage Airport, IL24 mi41 minW 19 G 2710.00 miFair and Breezy68°F48°F49%1015.8 hPa

Wind History from MDW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS17
G25
S16
G25
S17
G25
S16
G26
S15
G29
S17
G25
S20
G29
S15
G28
S12
G28
S17
G26
S15
G25
S13
G24
S14
G25
S12
G24
S11SW12
G18
SW11SW14W13
G20
W11
G20
W10W11
G18
W13W16
G28
1 day agoE10E12E10E15
G22
E20
G27
E17
G29
E15
G25
E14
G24
E14
G22
E18
G24
E14
G20
E14E16
G24
SE15
G28
W11CalmSE11E17
G24
SE6SE10S7S6S10S15
G21
2 days agoNW12N9N3N4E8E8E9NE7NE11NE10NE8CalmW3N5NE9E4NE13E8E8E10SE9SE13E11
G19
E8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.