Saturday, November18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Friendsville, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 4:40PM Saturday November 18, 2017 3:21 AM EST (08:21 UTC) Moonrise 6:48AMMoonset 5:14PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Friendsville , PA
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location: 41.88, -75.96     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 180542
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
1242 am est Sat nov 18 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will reside over the region this evening then
shift east of the area later tonight. A strong low pressure
system will track west and north of the area this weekend
bringing rain for Saturday and Saturday night followed by gusty
and colder conditions with lake effect snow by late Sunday.

Near term through today
900 pm update... Current gridded forecast database in very good
shape. Cool down continues in the easter zones while the west
remains steady. Overnight, trend should continue until we
approach morning when all areas will warm up ahead of the
advancing rain. Speaking of the rain, it looks to on schedule
for a daybreak arrival in the west and spreading east during the
day. Little change in timing in the grids or models. Previous
discussion continues below...

high pressure centered over the region late this afternoon will
shift east overnight as low pressure moves into the illinois indiana
area. Skies will be mainly clear through mid late evening with
just high clouds allowing temperatures to fall initially. Later
tonight clouds will increase with reading expected to be non-
diurnal especially west of i81. Overnight lows will be in the
lower 20s across the western catskills and western mohawk valley
with readings in the mid to upper 20s elsewhere except around
freezing in the wyoming valley.

Saturday... A deepening low pressure system will slowly lift
northeast into the central great lakes region. Initial short
wave and isentropic lift will spread light rain across the area
during the mid morning to midday period from west to east. The
precipitation on the front edge could be a mix of rain snow even
though temperatures aloft are warm, evaporative cooling could
bring a brief mix. If this does occur any accumulations would be
only a dusting to a couple of tenths as the precipitation
quickly changes to rain. High will range in the lower to middle
40s.

Saturday night... Low pressure will lift northeast along the new
york canadian border as it continues to intensify. The
gfs canadian continue to show a much stronger system than the
nam and also less progressive. Leaned toward the deeper slower
solution which brings cold air into the area mainly after 12z
Sunday. Jet dynamics and frontal lift will keep widespread rain
over the area for much of the overnight period then the activity
becomes more showery as the cold front crosses between 06z-
12z. Toward daybreak the rain will begin mixing with snow with
light accumulations possible over northern oneida and steuben
counties. Temperatures are expected to hold steady or even rise
slightly during the evening hours then fall rapidly after
frontal passage. By daybreak temperatures will range in the
middle 30s to around 40.

Short term tonight through Monday night
Main concerns in the short term remain focused around the
strengthening low pressure system moving newd through the ERN great
lakes with strong NW winds and accumulating lake effect snow Sunday
into Monday morning.

By Sunday morning the surface low is expected to be moving into nrn
ny with the wedge of warm air still situated over central ny
and NE pa ahead of the first surface cold front, which will be
rapidly moving to the E ne. As this occurs, lingering rain showers
will quickly change over to snow. Most of the precipitation will be
in the form of snow by the afternoon.

Temperatures will be falling from the lower 40s in the morning, into
the mid 30s by the afternoon. The initial cold front will be
associated with rapidly cooling temperatures aloft. Steep low level
lapse rates will make conditions very favorable for strong mixing in
a deepening boundary layer. Northwest winds 40 to 50 kt at the top
of the mixed layer will be capable of mixing down to the surface
with sustained winds 20 to 30 mph, and gusts 35 to 50 mph not out of
the question. The strongest winds are expected to be late morning
and early afternoon Sunday. A wind advisory will likely be needed
during this time.

The second impact from this system will be the development of lake
effect snow across central ny Sunday afternoon... Continuing into
Monday morning. Conditions will become favorable for les after 5 pm
Sunday as boundary layer winds become unidirectional out of the nw
and the cold air really begins to pour in... 850mb temps around -10
to -12 deg c. A 300 deg flow and at least a minor lake to lake
connection, should allow a single les band to set up Sunday evening
and impact an area from around auburn to tully over to utica,
north... Including the syracuse metro area and i-90 corridor. Most
favorable time should be during the late Sunday evening through the
early morning Monday timeframe. During this period, snowfall rates
may approach 1 to 2 inches per hour for brief times. Snow will
accumulate quickly and cause potentially hazardous travel conditions
Monday morning.

Winds will slowly back to the west and SW into Monday afternoon and
allow the lake band to shift north of the thruway. As this occurs,
slightly warmer air will begin to move in from the west and will
start to erode the lake effect snow processes and lower the
inversion heights. Snowfall rates will also diminish into the
afternoon, and eventually lift completely to the north out of the
area by the evening. Cloud cover will mix out from south to north
Monday night with quiet weather and cool temperatures.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
A strong push of warm air from the SW is expected Tuesday with
temperatures climbing into the upper 40s and lower 50s. Most of the
day should be quiet before cloud cover increases later in the day
and the next clipper system begins to push in late Tuesday night and
during the day Wednesday with snow showers at night and a mix of
snow and rain during the day. There is some uncertainty with the
pattern later in the week with some of the guidance hinting at weak
ridging behind the departing clipper, and other keeping the
strong cold cyclonic flow going into the weekend with NW winds and
likely persistent light snow showers... Mainly across the central ny
counties. Temperatures will begin a slow decline from the 40s into
the lower to mid 30s for day time highs... And 20s and lower 30s
overnight.

Aviation 06z Saturday through Wednesday
Vfr conditions will hold overnight and for the morning hours on
Saturday. Rain will move into the terminals Saturday morning,
but it will take a few hours before moisture thickens enough to
lower ceilings into MVFR territory. Expect this to generally
occur in the 16 to 20z time frame with visbys also likely going
to MVFR. By the evening, CIGS are likely to lower to lower to
ifr at kbgm and potentially kavp by the end of the TAF period.

Winds will be light and variable overnight into Saturday morning before
eventually increasing to S SE around 10 knots. Prior to this
time, expect low level wind shear to be an issue in the 11-14z
time frame as a strong low level jet moves in while surface
winds remain light.

Outlook...

Saturday night... Widespread restrictions in rain showers mixing
with snow showers.

Sunday Monday... Variable ceiling restrictions with scattered
lake effect snow showers north, generallyVFR south half. Winds
will also be quite strong and gusty Sunday.

Tuesday... GenerallyVFR.

Tuesday night Wednesday... Restrictions possible in scattered
rain snow showers.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Dgm rrm
near term... Dgm rrm
short term... Bjt
long term... Bjt
aviation... Djp pcf


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Binghamton, Binghamton Regional Airport, NY24 mi29 minS 710.00 miFair26°F17°F69%1013.8 hPa

Wind History from BGM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW12
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NW9NW7NW12W11
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NW9NW6NW5N3CalmE3SE3CalmS4SE5S6S6S7
1 day agoS10
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2 days agoCalmSE3CalmCalmSE4SE5SE6SE7SE8S10SE10S8SE9S7S7S11
G17
S10S9S12
G17
S11
G19
S12
G22
S14
G28
S12
G21
S12
G22

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.