Sunrise 6:14 AM   Sunset 7:51 PM Moonrise 2:47 PM   Moonset 3:40 AM

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FXUS61 KBGM 191856 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 256 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front will bring rain showers to the area through this evening. It will turn breezy and cooler for the weekend with some rain or even snow showers possible Saturday afternoon and evening. A dry stretch of weather is finally expected Sunday through Tuesday, with seasonable temperatures.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
255 PM Update:

A passing frontal boundary continues to bring some rain showers to the area. An initial batch of light rain showers is quickly moving east of I-81, but another batch of showers will be entering the area from Western NY later this afternoon into this evening. These light showers will move eastward through the area overnight. Even though these showers will quickly move eastward, plenty of low level moisture will result in lingering clouds and area of drizzle. Lows tonight are expected to mainly be in the 40s.

The cold front exits the area to the east on Saturday, which will result in initially mostly sunny skies in the morning.
However, a secondary shortwave, combined with diurnally-driven instability will result in a resurgence of rain showers in the afternoon. Enough cold air aloft may be present for small hail or graupel to mix with these showers. Highs are expected to be in the mid 40s to mid 50s, which on the cool side compared to normal for this time of the year.

Saturday night, high pressure starts to build into the area.
This, combined with the loss of diurnal heating, will allow for rain showers to quickly dissipate after sunset and skies to clear. Lows are expected to be in the 30s for the majority of the area, with some upper 20s possible in the usual colder spots of the Catskills and northern Oneida county.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
230 PM Update...

Surface ridging and an upper level trough will be over the region on Sunday. Brisk northwest flow regime will keep temperatures on the cool side Sunday afternoon, with highs only in the upper 40s to low 50s across much of the region. Those NW winds will increase Sunday afternoon as a dry cold front drops out of Canada, with gusts of 25 to 30 mph possible.

A reinforcing shot of cold air is expected to move into the region Sunday night, keeping temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s across the region.

Cold air remains across most of the region Monday as the trough stubbornly hangs around. Main changes made to NBM this period was for surface dew points were decreased several degrees due to the dry airmass overhead. RH values will likely dip into the mid 20 percent range during peak heating Monday afternoon. Also, NBM winds are way overdone with the bulk of the model guidance having a surface high pushing overhead, so wind gusts were reduced Monday afternoon. The center of the high will be over the region Monday night, which should allow for radiational cooling to drop temps into the low to mid 30s, even with warmer air aloft building into the region.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
240 PM Update

No major changes have been made to the long term portion of the forecast. Models continue to be consistent with the next storm system. This system is expected to move into the region sometime Tuesday evening to Wednesday morning. Guidance has some minor timing differences, but overall agreement is good that a trough will dig into the Great Lakes region, generating a surface low that will pass north of us. A surface cold front extending from the low will bring rain showers across the region Wednesday.

The GFS and some ensembles have a secondary shortwave that will fill in behind this front as the overall trough pattern rotates from positively to negatively tilted. This brings a reinforcing shot of cold air into the region Wednesday night and Thursday.
A rain/snow mix will be possible across the NE portion of the CWA as light showers hang around in this scenario. The center of the upper low/trough is overhead Thursday, and this will keep temps cold with lingering rain/snow showers. However, it should be noted that the Euro pulls the upper trough/low out much faster with ridging building in Thursday, and this will drastically change the forecast if this pans out. For now, due to the uncertainty at the end of the week, decided to stay with the NBM solution. The NBM has no PoPs at this time for Thursday, so something to watch as the forecast progresses into next week.

AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A cold front moving through the region will bring rain showers and associated ceilings and/or visby restrictions this afternoon into this evening. Occasional IFR ceilings will be possible, but restrictions will mainly be MVFR to Fuel Alternate. Lingering post-frontal low ceilings are expected through most of the night, before conditions return to mainly VFR for Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday afternoon...Mainly VFR expected. Occasional/brief MVFR restrictions possible at the Central NY terminals with scattered showers.

Sunday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday...Occasional restrictions possible in rain showers.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

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