Tuesday, January22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Friendsville, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:23AMSunset 5:06PM Tuesday January 22, 2019 7:05 AM EST (12:05 UTC) Moonrise 7:06PMMoonset 8:36AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Friendsville , PA
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location: 41.88, -75.96     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 221113
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
613 am est Tue jan 22 2019

Synopsis
After a frigid start, with wind chills well subzero, high
temperatures of upper teens to lower 20s eventually get reached
today under arctic high pressure. Our next system will likely
bring a wintry mix including some freezing rain Wednesday.

Precipitation becomes all rain by late Wednesday, but switches
back to snow into Thursday, especially twin tiers northward.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
415 am update...

wind chills are not as low as they were Monday, but will still
be well subzero early this morning. Wind chill warnings and
advisories remain in effect until 7 am. Luckily, arctic high
pressure is advancing directly overhead this morning which is
allowing winds to subside quickly.

Even now, lake effect clouds and flurries continue southeast of
lake ontario, due to the last gaps of northwest flow on the
front side of the high, and moisture trapped under the lowering
subsidence inversion. This will not last much longer, and at
this point accumulations are done beyond a light skiff
immediately southeast of lake ontario and the finger lakes. The
good thing about the clouds, is that unlike mostly clear areas
of central ny generally east of i-81, temperatures were modified
and prevented from dropping much below zero overnight. In some
cases, temperatures even slightly rose from colder evening
readings. Regardless it is a very cold start to the day, but
increasing sunshine and the beginning of warm air advection
later today will eventually allow highs of upper teens-lower 20s
to be achieved. That is still 9-12 degrees below climatology, in
what is already the coldest time of year.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Thursday night
430 am update...

the short term is rather busy as our next system brings
multiple precipitation types. This will likely result in slick
roads Wednesday morning through midday from ice; then possibly
again Thursday as precipitation changes back to snow before
ending.

A low pressure center will track from the midwest tonight
through the western great lakes on Wednesday, then into quebec
Thursday. This track will allow above freezing air aloft to
surge northward over our region as the warm front of the system
lifts through the region Wednesday morning-midday. One silver
lining is that models continue to delay the onset of incoming
precipitation, to which much of it may be after the early
morning commute instead of during it. However, with the very
cold arctic air mass just prior, ground road temperatures will
likely be very cold and will take longer than air temperatures
to get above freezing. So as initial snow changes to sleet and
rain, a glaze of ice looks increasingly likely in the mid
morning through early afternoon time frame; perhaps lingering
later in the higher terrain east of i-81. Eventually
precipitation converts to plain rain, temperatures in the mid to
upper 30s areawide by evening.

A few inches of snow-sleet accumulation will be possible in
northern oneida county, but the vast majority of the area will
receive less than an inch of snow before ice becomes the main
issue - mostly less than a tenth of an inch but slick roadways
regardless.

Phase two of this system will occur late Wednesday night into
Thursday, as temperatures do a reversal with the cold front of
the system passing through. A west-to-east change of
precipitation from rain to snow is thus expected, with a new
wave of low pressure as well as good upper jet support slowing
its exit. Behind the frontal precipitation, scattered snow
showers can be expected late Thursday through Thursday night,
but with west-northwest flow placing lake enhancement on parts
of central new york. All told, additional snow accumulations of
1-2 inches can be expected especially for higher terrain in the
twin tiers and especially northward. Northern oneida county
could actually get several more inches. Temperatures Thursday
will fall, with readings of upper 20s-lower 30s by afternoon for
most locations, and eventual lows of mid teens-lower 20s by dawn
Friday.

For total precipitation Wednesday through Thursday, some areas
may see around an inch of rain, especially poconos-catskills.

Rises on area rivers and streams is likely. We will need to
keep an eye on the potential for localized flooding.

Long term Friday through Monday
345 am update... Quiet period in the long term with a march of
weaker systems and seasonably cold air. Waves are timed for
Saturday and again for Monday that will bring some light snow,
with a bit of light lake effect between. Made minor adjustments
to the long term with the latest guidance, but overall the grids
were in good shape. Previous discussion below.

The air mass coming in Thursday night will be another cold one.

Temperatures will fall into the teens with west winds around 5 to 10
mph making it feel like the single digits. Boundary layer winds out
of the west and enough cold air over lake ontario will allow lake
effect snow showers to develop... Mainly downwind east of the lake,
into oneida county, but scattered light snows into the rest of
central ny cannot be ruled out.

Temperatures in the 20s expected on Friday with lake effect clouds
and snow showers in the far NRN counties likely through Friday
night. Temperatures Friday night are expected to fall into the
single digits above and below zero as the arctic front plows through
the region. The wind flow is expected to remain generally west as a
stretched out upper low persists over james bay. This will keep the
cold air in place along with scattered lake effect snow showers on
Saturday. The cold air mass may see a very slight reprieve on Sunday
as winds shift to the SW and temperatures warm into the 20s. Either
way, it looks like a return to very late-january like temperatures
this weekend.

Aviation 12z Tuesday through Saturday
Light lake effect snow showers and clouds hanging tough but
will dissipate shortly after sunrise as the flow becomes weak
and drier air mixes down. This will bringVFR conditions, which
will continue through the end of the TAF period. High pressure
builds in at the surface for Tuesday bringing clear skies, but
aloft, return flow develops out of the southeast bringing a risk
for llws near the end of the period. AVFR cloud deck will
develop this evening as moisture returns ahead of a great lakes
low, but precipitation should hold off until after the taf
period.

Outlook...

Wednesday... Another system with snow changing to wintry mix to
rain with associated restrictions.

Wednesday night through Thursday... Rain gradually changing back
to snow on back side of system; restrictions likely.

Thursday night through Saturday... Restrictions possible in snow
showers, especially the ny terminals.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... Wind chill advisory until 7 am est this morning for paz038>040-
043-044-047-048-072.

Ny... Wind chill warning until 7 am est this morning for nyz009-036-
037-045-046-057-062.

Wind chill advisory until 7 am est this morning for nyz015>018-
022>025-044-055-056.

Synopsis... Mdp
near term... Mdp
short term... Mdp
long term... Bjt dgm
aviation... Dgm djp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Binghamton, Binghamton Regional Airport, NY24 mi12 minNW 310.00 miOvercast4°F1°F88%1037.1 hPa

Wind History from BGM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW13
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1 day agoNW11NW12
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G27
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2 days agoCalmNE3E3E5E7SE5SE4SE7SE6SE6SE9SE11SE9SE12E11E11SE12SE13SE16
G26
SE16E13NE5N10N10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.