Sunday, May20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Elmhurst, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:24AMSunset 8:12PM Sunday May 20, 2018 7:58 PM CDT (00:58 UTC) Moonrise 10:41AMMoonset 12:35AM Illumination 36% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LMZ741 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 337 Pm Cdt Sun May 20 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 pm cdt this evening...
Tonight..North winds 15 to 25 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt by Sundown, then becoming northeast 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Showers and a chance of Thunderstorms, mainly after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight. Waves 3 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft gradually subsiding to 2 to 4 ft by overnight.
Monday..East winds 15 to 20 kt becoming northeast 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Patchy fog. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms through early afternoon, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms after. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Monday night..North winds 10 to 15 kt becoming northwest. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft by late evening.
Tuesday..North winds 10 to 15 kt becoming northeast in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
LMZ741 Expires:201805210330;;267866 FZUS53 KLOT 202037 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 337 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ740>742-210330-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elmhurst, IL
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 41.89, -87.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 klot 202333
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
633 pm cdt Sun may 20 2018

Short term
256 pm cdt
through Monday...

generally quiet conditions are expected through this evening as
broken cloud cover persists in the wake of this morning's precip.

Low-level moisture, a lowering cloud deck, and weak isentropic
ascent should support some patchy drizzle and fog late this evening
through much of the overnight hours.

A fairly potent mid-level shortwave over ok this afternoon will
become convectively enhanced as it tracks northeastward tonight.

With it will come a possibly decaying shield of rain with embedded
thunder. Arrival time for the southwest CWA is expected around 2-
4am, and around 6-8am for the chicago metro. Even without
thunderstorms, this shield of rain will likely have pockets of heavy
rain that may induce some minor impacts for the morning commute.

The trough is expected to slow as it encounters a ridge currently
across the western great lakes. This will allow extensive cloud
cover and some showers to linger through much of the day Monday
across the northern tier of the cwa. Have thus lowered MAX temps
to the mid upper 50s in lake county (il) and northeast cook
county, to around 60 for the remainder of the chicago metro.

Farther south, clearing in the afternoon will support mid 70s to
possibly 80f.

Across the southeastern CWA in the afternoon, showers and some
thunderstorms may initiate as destabilization occurs ahead of a
surface trough. MLCAPE values surpassing 1000j kg with 0-6km shear
to 30kts will support a conditional isolated severe thunderstorm
risk for large hail and strong winds.

Kluber

Long term
258 pm cdt
Monday night through Sunday...

the forecast items of interest in the long range are lake-induced
cooling midweek with warming temperatures to above normal inland,
then potential for even warmer with gradually increasing
thunderstorm chances for Friday into the first half of the
holiday weekend.

At the beginning of this period (early Monday evening), depending
on where the above mentioned surface low and attendant front are,
scattered thunderstorms could be as far west still as northwest
indiana. The instability and shear combination ahead of the front
would support a conditional strong to severe threat. Any
convective activity will get a push eastward as the upper short
wave disturbance shifts into the great lakes. Showers associated
with the upper low are likely to remain mainly north of the area,
possibly grazing far northern illinois.

Surface high pressure will drift over the area Tuesday with
gradual return flow ensuing thereafter for the week. With the
high overhead on Tuesday, a thermally-induced lake breeze should
surge inland during the early-mid afternoon, especially if morning
cloud cover has departed. Lakeside temperatures likely will drop
through the 50s while 70s forecast further inland. Wednesday will
have warmer temperatures areawide with 80+ inland, while more 60s
lakeside.

The upper level pattern features by Wednesday onward will be a rex
block west while a building ridge across the middle of the county,
with multiple lead short waves across the central plains into the
upper midwest and possibly some parts of the corn belt states. The
main support for ascent and foci of low-level jets would point
toward much of the storms remaining west and north of the cwa
through Thursday. Also trying to consider that the models may be a
bit fast with eastward progression of precipitation given the
blocked pattern forecast. Warm advection aloft though and possibly
some spilling of decaying, likely ill-defined mcss, does warrant
low chances of rain in the northern and western CWA during that
time. The most recent GEFS supports a sharp gradient in
precipitation chances just west and north of the area.

The better chances for convection look to be Friday into Saturday
at this time, as heights start to break down with correlated
ascent, and the low-level thermal and moisture ridge spill into
the area. If convective clouds do not interfere, highs on Friday
and Saturday could be around 90 in parts of the CWA given 850mb
temperatures of 17-20c. The pattern favors multiple rounds of
storms in the general region, impossible to say if over the cwa,
but have broad chances in the forecast during those two days.

Looks like more of a shower and isolated thunder potential the day
after the surface low passes as the northwest-flow upper low
drifts over the region.

Mtf

Aviation
For the 00z tafs...

generally quiet conditions this evening, with MVFR CIGS 1000-1500
ft persisting, except at gyy with patchy fog lifr CIGS right off
the lake.

Mid-level disturbance currently near the ks mo border will lift
toward the area tonight, which is expected to spread showers back
into the area after midnight. Ifr CIGS and some fog will likely
develop again as rain falls into cool low levels, with persistent
northeast winds. Some potential for embedded thunder will exist,
though orientation of instability axis looks to favor gyy toward
morning. May be a decrease in precip coverage by mid-late Monday
morning, though scattered showers light rain remain possible as
mid-level trough lifts slowly across the area. Renewed convective
development is possible mainly south of the chicago area by mid-
late afternoon, and have included a prob for tsra at gyy.

Guidance maintains ifr CIGS through much of the day Monday, and
this seems reasonable with occasional light rain showers. Lifr
cigs not out of the question especially late tonight early Monday
morning. Have slowed the improvement to MVFR until later in the
afternoon. May well go back down to ifr during the evening, as low
level moisture doesn't really get scoured out until early
Tuesday.

Ratzer

Marine
305 pm cdt
gusty northeast to north winds across the southern part of the
lake will gradually ease this evening. Small craft advisory waves
will ease by mid to late evening. Low pressure will lift northeast
over the northern indiana southern michigan region during Monday
evening, with northeast to north winds during the afternoon into
the evening leading to near small craft advisory criteria waves
across the far south.

Midweek will see a lake breeze pattern in the nearshores, while
southerly flow begins to take over across the open water.

Thunderstorm chances look small during the midweek time before
increasing late in the week.

Mtf

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

In... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory... Winthrop harbor to burns harbor until
10 pm Sunday.

Visit us at http: weather.Gov chicago (all lowercase)
follow us on facebook... Twitter... And youtube at:


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OKSI2 17 mi118 min NNE 8 G 12 45°F
FSTI2 17 mi118 min N 27 44°F
CNII2 18 mi28 min N 8.9 G 15 44°F 41°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 20 mi38 min N 15 G 16 44°F 43°F
JAKI2 21 mi118 min NE 6 G 13 46°F
45174 23 mi28 min N 9.7 G 14 42°F 47°F4 ft41°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 24 mi40 min N 7 G 11 45°F 1020.9 hPa44°F
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 33 mi78 min NNE 16 G 17 44°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 45 mi38 min N 5.1 G 13 47°F 1021.7 hPa
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 49 mi58 min 45°F 1022 hPa (-1.0)

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
Last
24hr
NE3
NE3
SE1
NW1
NE3
G6
N11
N12
G17
N7
G10
NW15
G20
NW12
G18
N12
G15
N11
G15
N11
G14
N10
N11
G14
NW13
G18
N11
G14
E10
G13
N13
G17
NW13
G18
N13
G16
N11
G14
N7
G12
N9
G12
1 day
ago
N3
N4
NE4
N6
N4
N4
N4
N4
NW3
NW2
N6
NW2
G5
N3
N2
NE4
NE3
NE2
N4
NE5
NE4
NE5
NE5
NE5
N4
2 days
ago
N10
G15
N10
G15
N8
G14
N5
G8
N5
G8
N5
N7
N6
G9
N4
N6
G9
N6
N10
G13
N10
G14
N9
G12
N12
G17
N11
G16
NW13
G18
NW14
G20
N14
G18
NW10
G16
NW10
G13
NW10
G14
NW11
G15
N5

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL7 mi67 minNE 1110.00 miOvercast49°F41°F74%1021.1 hPa
Chicago, Chicago Midway Airport, IL12 mi65 minNE 910.00 miOvercast49°F43°F80%1021.2 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL15 mi66 minNNE 1110.00 miOvercast49°F42°F77%1022 hPa
Chicago / West Chicago, Dupage Airport, IL17 mi66 minNE 1110.00 miOvercast52°F46°F80%1020.7 hPa
Lewis University Airport, IL21 mi63 minNE 7 G 2010.00 miMostly Cloudy51°F46°F84%1021 hPa

Wind History from ORD (wind in knots)
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
Last 24hrE6SE3CalmE5NE13NE16NE16NE17N16NE13N16NE17NE14NE15N12NE10N12N12NE12NE11N13NE12NE11NE6
1 day agoE9NE7E7NE7NE6NE7NE7N5N5NE5N3CalmCalmCalmW4W7W7NW6W7W6NW5E5E5E5
2 days agoN9NE12N9N9NE8N8NE8N8NE9NE10NE12NE11NE10NE13NE10NE9NE12NE11NE13NE12NE10NE10NE9E8

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (20,4,5,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.