Thursday, October19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hornbrook, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:28AMSunset 6:22PM Thursday October 19, 2017 2:21 AM PDT (09:21 UTC) Moonrise 6:12AMMoonset 5:48PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ330 1126 Pm Pdt Fri Aug 9 2013
.thunderstorms over the waters... Thunderstorms over the waters have weakened but isolated storms will continue overnight. Mariners can expect gusty and erratic winds with the storms along with frequent lightning. If caught on the open water stay below deck if possible...keep away from ungrounded metal objects. Lat...lon 4397 12411 4396 12411 4400 12413 4284 12455 4242 12440 4225 12441 4205 12428 4184 12422 4181 12580 4198 12579 4220 12589 4370 12576 4386 12565 4399 12562 4403 12414
PZZ300 217 Am Pdt Thu Oct 19 2017
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..A strong cold from will spread southerly gales across the waters this morning and will affect most areas north of brookings. Heavy, long period northwest swell will build into the waters late today into Friday behind the front, creating very high and steep seas and dangerous surf and bar conditions. Another round of potentially strong south winds arrives Friday night along a warm front. Generally calmer conditions are expected by Monday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hornbrook, CA
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location: 41.9, -122.57     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 190555
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
1055 pm pdt Wed oct 18 2017
updated aviation section

Update No major changes were necessary this evening, with the
forecast well on track concerning the rain and wind storm bearing
down on the region. Some of the latest model suites, in
particular the nam, have slowed the progression of the system by a
few hours, and if it verifies, this will naturally offset the
forecast a bit, however this is a recent development in the
models, and since the general trends of the sensible weather
remain the same, there is no pressing reason to make any sweeping
changes.

Fore more information on this system and the rest of the forecast,
see the previous discussion below. -bpn

Aviation 19 06z TAF cycle... Conditions will deteriorate
tonight and Thursday as a cold front brings wind and rain to the
region. Expect widespread MVFR ifr along the coast and coastal
waters tonight into Thursday with gusty south winds. Lower ceilings,
mostly MVFR, will gradually spread inland Thursday with terrain
becoming obscured west of the cascades by evening. The lower
conditions will push east of the cascades Thursday evening. Strong
winds will occur from the cascades eastward Thursday and this will
result in plenty of turbulence. Low-level wind shear is possible in
some areas as well. -spilde

Marine Updated 800 pm pdt Wednesday 18 october 2017... South winds
are increasing ahead of a strong cold front tonight, and confidence
is high for gales from CAPE blanco northward, and very steep and
hazardous seas most places elsewhere.

Heavy, long period northwest swell (around 20 feet at 17 seconds)
will build into the waters late Thursday into Friday behind the
front, creating dangerous surf and bar conditions. The tail end of
the cold front is expected to move back northward as a warm front,
and winds are expected to increase again Friday night and Saturday
with guidance showing gale force winds again. -fb bpn

Prev discussion issued 301 pm pdt Wed oct 18 2017
short term... Models remain on track showing a strong incoming
front approaching the area late tonight and moving inland tomorrow.

This is followed by a colder pattern with showers and mountain
snow on Friday.

The impacts expected from the incoming storm include:
*rain impacts: ponding on roadways, debris flows or mud slides
possible near recent burn scars near the curry coast and in
western siskiyou county tomorrow.

*wind impacts: travel may become difficult for high profile
vehicles tomorrow due to strong southerly winds along the
coastal headlands, shasta valley, and east of the cascades.

*isolated trees may fall near burn scars due to high winds.

*dangerous conditions for beach goers with high surf conditions
along the coast late Thursday afternoon through Friday.

*dangerous seas developing in the coastal waters tonight through
tomorrow then continuing into Friday. Strong gale force winds
will accompany these seas tonight and tomorrow morning.

*snow impacts: slippery, snow-covered roads over the higher
passes in the cascades near crater lake and diamond lake on
Friday. Light snow on highway 140 near lake of the woods on
Friday.

As the front approaches the region, light rain will develop late
tonight along the coast with moderate to heavy rain expected
tomorrow for coastal areas. Rainfall will peak at the coast
tomorrow afternoon into early tomorrow evening. Inland areas are
expected to see rain spread across the area Thursday afternoon and
evening as the front pushes inland. Rain will be moderate to
heavy from the coastal mountains to the southern oregon cascades
as well as in western siskiyous county. Elsewhere expect light to
moderate rain. Heavy rain over recent burn scars in curry, extreme
western josephine and extreme western siskiyou county will bring
the potential for rock or mud slides which may impact area roads
near these burn scars. A flash flood watch is in effect for these
areas. Please see the ffamfr for details.

As the front approaches the region tonight, expect south winds to
increase over the ridges, along the coast and over the coastal
waters. Winds will peak at the coast tomorrow morning and expect
wind gusts in the 30 to 45 mph range along the coast with higher
gusts up to 60 mph at CAPE blanco. Winds will increase over inland
areas tomorrow afternoon and evening, when a strong mid level jet
is forecast to move into the area. Although most all areas will
see gusty winds, the strongest winds are expected in areas east of
the cascades, in the southern shasta valley as well as over the
higher mountains. South winds are expected to gust to around 40 to
50 mph in many valleys east of the cascades and in the southern
shasta valley on Thursday with higher gusts of 60 mph possible in
portions of lake county and over the warner mountains in eastern
modoc county. Of note, these strong winds over eastern areas will
develop in advance of the precipitation Thursday afternoon with
rain moving into the shasta valley and areas east of the cascades
late Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening.These winds will
lower Thursday night behind the frontal passage. A high wind
warning and wind advisory is in effect for these areas. Please see
the npwmfr for details.

Also of concern behind the front, expect a large northwest swell
to reach the coast. This will bring large wave run ups on the
beach and dangerous high surf conditions. A high surf advisory is
in effect for the southern oregon coast Thursday evening into
Friday. Please see the cfwmfr for details.

Behind this front widespread to numerous showers are expected
tomorrow night into Friday along with snow levels lowering to 4000
to 5000 feet. This will bring light to moderate snow to the
passes in the cascades Thursday night through Friday afternoon.

Around 4 to 7 inches of snow is expected in the diamond lake and
crater lake areas with around 3 inches near lake of the woods.

However, relatively warm road temperatures may limit the amount of
snow that accumulates on roadways during this period. The peak
snowfall is expected tomorrow night through Friday morning. Snow
showers are possible during the afternoon on Friday but
accumulations are expected to be light except for over higher
locations such as near crater lake.

Expect only a brief break in the active pattern Friday evening
then a strong and moist warm front will spread precipitation into
the area Friday night and Saturday. This next front will bring
moderate rain from the cascades west with light to moderate
precipitation east of the cascades and in northern california.

Snow levels are expected to rise to above pass levels on Saturday
as this front moves inland. Another period of strong or gusty winds
is possible with this warm front on Saturday. The strong winds
will be mainly over the mountains, although gusty winds are
likely over much of the area on Saturday.

Long term... Monday 23 oct through Wednesday 26
oct 2017... A strong ridge will build in at the beginning of the
period, and any remaining showers will dissipate during the day
Monday. Low level easterly flow will develop Monday night, drying
out the air mass further. The offshore low level flow will continue
through Tuesday night. After that the medium range model forecasts
diverge. The GFS weakens the thermal trough near the coast and
brings a weak front into the offshore waters Thursday morning.

Meanwhile, the ec hangs on to a strong trough with offshore flow
continuing into Thursday. Will go with dry forecast through
Wednesday night before ramping up the pops offshore Wednesday night.

Will keep any precipitation well offshore through Wednesday night.

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... High wind warning from 11 am to 11 pm pdt Thursday for
orz030-031.

Wind advisory from 11 am to 11 pm pdt Thursday for orz029>031.

Flash flood watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
for orz022-024.

High surf advisory from 5 pm Thursday to 11 pm pdt Friday for
orz021-022.

Ca... High wind warning from 11 am to 11 pm pdt Thursday for caz085.

Wind advisory from 11 am to 11 pm pdt Thursday for caz084-085.

Flash flood watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
for caz080.

Wind advisory from 8 am to 8 pm pdt Thursday for caz081.

Pacific coastal waters... Small craft advisory from 11 pm this evening to 11 am pdt
Thursday for pzz356.

Gale warning from 11 pm this evening to 11 am pdt Thursday for
pzz350-356-370-376.

Hazardous seas warning from 11 pm this evening to 11 pm pdt
Friday for pzz356-376.

Small craft advisory until 11 am pdt Thursday for pzz350-376.

Hazardous seas warning until 11 pm pdt Friday for pzz350-370.

Small craft advisory until 11 pm pdt this evening for pzz370.

Mas bpn cc fjb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 86 mi51 min SSE 15 G 17 52°F 52°F1013.7 hPa
46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA 96 mi91 min SE 14 G 18 55°F 54°F4 ft1013.7 hPa (-0.4)

Wind History for Crescent City, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Montague Siskiyou County Airport, CA9 mi28 minNE 610.00 miFair42°F19°F41%1012.5 hPa

Wind History from SIY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3NW3N33CalmCalmCalmCalmNW5CalmS5CalmS3SW4CalmNE7NE6
1 day agoCalmNE3NE5CalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmS4Calm4NW3E43W3CalmN3NE4CalmE4CalmSW3E3
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3334S5S3S4SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Crescent City, California
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Crescent City
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:46 AM PDT     1.11 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:18 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:34 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:55 AM PDT     7.17 feet High Tide
Thu -- 12:12 PM PDT     New Moon
Thu -- 06:22 PM PDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:28 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:54 PM PDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
6.45.94.93.52.21.31.11.72.84.35.86.87.26.75.53.92.20.80.10.21.12.445.4

Tide / Current Tables for Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon
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Brookings
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:50 AM PDT     1.11 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:18 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:34 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:56 AM PDT     7.17 feet High Tide
Thu -- 12:12 PM PDT     New Moon
Thu -- 06:26 PM PDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:28 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:54 PM PDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
6.464.93.62.31.41.11.62.84.35.86.87.26.75.53.92.20.90.10.212.43.95.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.