Tuesday, June19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hornbrook, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:32AMSunset 8:52PM Tuesday June 19, 2018 7:00 PM PDT (02:00 UTC) Moonrise 11:23AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 41% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ330 1126 Pm Pdt Fri Aug 9 2013
.thunderstorms over the waters... Thunderstorms over the waters have weakened but isolated storms will continue overnight. Mariners can expect gusty and erratic winds with the storms along with frequent lightning. If caught on the open water stay below deck if possible...keep away from ungrounded metal objects. Lat...lon 4397 12411 4396 12411 4400 12413 4284 12455 4242 12440 4225 12441 4205 12428 4184 12422 4181 12580 4198 12579 4220 12589 4370 12576 4386 12565 4399 12562 4403 12414
PZZ300 216 Pm Pdt Tue Jun 19 2018
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Relatively calm conditions will continue through Thursday. Seas will be a mix of longer period west swell and shorter period northwest swell through this evening, with the northwest swell diminishing tonight. The thermal trough redevelops Friday. Small craft conditions with steep wind driven seas are expected to return by Friday night and continue into the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hornbrook, CA
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location: 41.9, -122.57     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 192134
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
234 pm pdt Tue jun 19 2018

Discussion Dry weather is expected through tonight. The latest
satellite image shows a upper trough located near 32 north and 132
west. While this looks innocent at the moment, it's this feature
that will bring the threat for strong and possibly severe
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. Were already starting
to see the effects from the shortwave with building cumulus over the
mountains. Meanwhile, marine stratus is eroding along the coast, but
this may be short lived and is expected to return again this evening.

Everything is still coming into play for a thunderstorm outbreak
Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. The one thing that has
changed is the timing. The models are bringing the shortwave trough
a bit earlier than last night or even yesterday. However, this is
not expected to change the forecast by that much. If anything the
threat for thunderstorms could begin a bit earlier in the day and
decrease earlier in the evening. One thing of note: due to the
expected earlier arrival of the shortwave, there's a chance we could
have a cloud sheild could move into our area Wednesday morning which
could slow down the amount of warming and instability, but
confidence on this is low, but something we'll have to keep a close
watch on.

All of the ingredients are still there for an outbreak of
thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to severe Wednesday
afternoon into at least Wednesday evening. The key ingredients
needed for thunderstorms are: moisture, trigger (shortwave) and
instability. We'll have of these and the parameters for all three
are significant. Each of these will be discussed below.

Trigger: a shortwave trough will approach the oregon coast Wednesday
afternoon and will become negatively tilted with plenty of strong
shortwaves (trigger) out ahead of it as it approaches. A negatively
tilted trough is an indicator of a system strengthening.

Moisture: this will be in abundance on Wednesday. Models are showing
precipitable water values around .75 of an inch Wednesday morning,
increasing to around 1.25 inches, especially along and west of the
cascades Wednesday afternoon.

Instability: plenty of this exist, especially in the afternoon. The
general consensus is for very unstable conditions Wednesday
afternoon and evening. For example, the GFS shows li's between -3
and -5 c. The NAM is through the roof with even lower with values
between -5 and almost -8 c. In addition CAPE values well over 1000
j kg. All of this will be coming during near or MAX heating of the
day which will only add to the instability.

Additionally, a significant southerly wind field yields 0-6km bulk
shear of 40kt, and upper level deformation is high. If all this
comes to pass, severe thunderstorms are possible with the primary
threat being damaging winds. Also, a strong jet will be moving into
the area and we'll be on the left exit region of this jet which
could aid in the development of moderate to severe storms. There's
still some uncertainty with the details, but there's fairly good
agreement most of the action could be centered from western and
central siksyou county north along the cascades and portions of the
westside, this would include the rogue valley.

The axis of the shortwave trough will swing northeast and centered
east of the cascades later Wednesday evening. The best chance for
thunderstorms will also begin to shift east as the steering winds
become westerly and best dynamics are confined to northern klamath
and lake county. Due to the earlier arrival and exit time of the
shortwave, it's possible most if not all of the action is north of
our area late Wednesday evening and the forecast has been adjusted
to reflect this thinking.

Slight cooling is expected Thursday and Friday with a weak west to
northwest flow and light to moderate onshore flow. We'll stay dry
with be above normal temperatures in the afternoon inland away from
the coast.

Saturday remains dry. The models differ on the strength and timing
of the the upper trough moving through washington state and eastern
oregon which could determine how warm it will get. For example, the
gfs solution digs the upper low further west resulting in cooler
afternoon temperatures than whats in the forecast. The ECMWF is
weaker and slower with the upper trough and would result in higher
afternoon temperatures.

We'll heat up some Sunday as ridging builds over the area. This
won't last long as an upper trough approaches the area Monday
and over us on Tuesday with increasing onshore flow. -petrucelli

Aviation For the 19 18z tafs... The lifr CIGS vsbys associated
with the marine layer is receding back to the coast. Brief periods
of clearing expected along the coast this afternoon before returning
tonight. In the umpqua basin, the MVFR CIGS could spread into krbg.

Elsewhere,VFR conditions prevail and will do so throughout the taf
period. -schaaf

Marine Updated 200 pm pdt Tuesday 19 june 2018... Relatively
calm conditions will continue through Thursday. Seas will be a mix
of longer period west swell and shorter period northwest swell
through this evening, with the northwest swell diminishing
tonight. The thermal trough redevelops Friday. Small craft
conditions with steep wind driven seas are expected to return by
Friday night and continue into the weekend. Gale conditions could
be possible over the weekend, but confidence is still low since
it's still a few days out. -schaaf br-y

Fire weather Clear skies inland with low clouds along the coast
will continue tonight. On Wednesday, a strong upper level
disturbance will move up from the southwest and across the area in
the afternoon and evening. Scattered to isolated thunderstorms are
expected to develop over inland areas early in the afternoon and
increase in coverage in the late afternoon and evening. Storms are
likely to initiate over the mountains in the southern oregon
cascades, siskiyous and western siskiyou county early Wednesday
afternoon then spread north and northeast in the late afternoon and
evening. Frequent lightning, locally heavy downpours as well as hail
and gusty winds are possible with these storms. In addition, there
is a marginal 5 percent risk for severe thunderstorms with damaging
hail and winds possible. The marginal risk for severe thunderstorms
extends primarily from siskiyou summit and areas east of medford
northward and northeastward across the southern oregon cascades and
klamath county. Thunderstorms are expected to diminish late
Wednesday evening.

Then, expect warm and dry weather Thursday and Friday with areas of
low clouds along the coast and into the umpqua basin. On the
weekend, an upper level ridge will build into the area and expect
drying humidities and warming temperatures. Temperatures will peak
Sunday the ridge slides inland. Moderate recoveries are expected on
area ridges over the weekend as well.

Early next week, expect a cooling trend with the ridge shifting east
and an upper trough approaching the region from the northwest. -cc

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Ca... None.

Pacific coastal waters... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 86 mi48 min NNW 6 G 8 55°F 50°F1018.2 hPa
46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA 96 mi70 min Calm G 0 53°F 53°F4 ft1017.8 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Crescent City, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Montague Siskiyou County Airport, CA9 mi67 minWNW 310.00 miFair88°F30°F12%1015.1 hPa

Wind History from SIY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE12NE9NE8NE8W4CalmCalmNE7NE5CalmCalmNE3NE6CalmCalmCalmCalmS45NW6--S73NW3
1 day agoS5SE5N10NE5N3CalmNE4CalmCalmNE4NE6NE6NE3CalmN33CalmN6NE7N6N13
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2 days agoN16N18
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N16N9N13N13N7N7N10N4N8NE5N6N9N10N10N8E10NE154NE113S3NE8

Tide / Current Tables for Crescent City, California
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Crescent City
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Tue -- 01:04 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:19 AM PDT     6.10 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:41 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:05 AM PDT     -0.49 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:30 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:57 PM PDT     6.36 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:54 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:57 PM PDT     2.09 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.83.74.75.66.165.242.41-0.1-0.5-0.20.82.23.85.16.16.465.24.13.12.3

Tide / Current Tables for Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon
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Brookings
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:05 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:20 AM PDT     6.10 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:41 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:09 AM PDT     -0.49 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:30 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:58 PM PDT     6.36 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:55 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.83.64.75.66.165.242.51.1-0-0.5-0.20.72.13.75.166.465.24.23.12.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.