Saturday, August19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hornbrook, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:22AMSunset 8:05PM Saturday August 19, 2017 4:02 AM PDT (11:02 UTC) Moonrise 2:58AMMoonset 5:47PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ330 1126 Pm Pdt Fri Aug 9 2013
.thunderstorms over the waters... Thunderstorms over the waters have weakened but isolated storms will continue overnight. Mariners can expect gusty and erratic winds with the storms along with frequent lightning. If caught on the open water stay below deck if possible...keep away from ungrounded metal objects. Lat...lon 4397 12411 4396 12411 4400 12413 4284 12455 4242 12440 4225 12441 4205 12428 4184 12422 4181 12580 4198 12579 4220 12589 4370 12576 4386 12565 4399 12562 4403 12414
PZZ300 206 Am Pdt Sat Aug 19 2017
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters.. High pressure centered offshore and a thermal trough along the coast will support moderate to strong north winds with steep to very steep seas through this weekend. Conditions will be at least hazardous to small craft, and warning level winds and seas will occur beyond 5 nm from shore from gold beach southward. The thermal trough will weaken early next week causing winds and seas to diminish.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hornbrook, CA
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location: 41.9, -122.57     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 190551
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
1052 pm pdt Fri aug 18 2017
updated aviation section

Discussion Low-level northwest winds were able to scour out
some of the smoke from the rogue valley earlier this evening, but
expect the low-level flow to turn back to the north and northeast
later this evening and overnight, so smoke from the fires burning
in the umpqua national forest and the high cascades will likely
return. There's just a lot of smoke out there south and east of
the fires, so just about everywhere in the CWA south and east of
the umpqua divide will have to deal with it. To escape it, it is
recommended to go west to the coast (north of brookings) and or
north northwest to roseburg eugene portland. The forecast is on
track, so will not update this evening. -spilde

Aviation 19 06z TAF cycle... Ifr ceilings will prevail along
the coast north of CAPE blanco overnight into Saturday morning. Some
MVFR ceilings may also try to form in portions of the umpqua basin
toward sunrise, however, confidence is only moderate that will
occur. The remainder of the area will beVFR, but widespread smoke
from wildfires will result in visibility degradation to MVFR at
times. -spilde

Marine Updated 200 pm pdt Friday 18 august 2017... High pressure
centered offshore and a thermal trough along the coast will support
moderate to strong north winds and steep to very steep seas through
the weekend. Conditions will at least be hazardous to small craft,
but warning level winds seas will occur beyond 5 nm from shore from
gold beach south. Winds and seas will be highest during the
afternoons and evenings each day through Sunday, easing a bit during
the overnight and early morning hours. The thermal trough will
weaken early next week, and winds and seas will diminish then. Fb

Fire weather Updated 405 pm Friday, 18 august 2017...

a trough of low pressure pushing through to our north will result
in a push of the marine layer onto the coast and west side this
evening through Saturday morning leading to improved relative
humidity recoveries for many west side locations.

Tomorrow afternoon through Sunday morning a surge of northwest
through northeast wind is expected to push across the west side
and coast range. Of most concern is wind over and near the coast
range in fire weather zone 619. The pressure gradient increases by
about 28 percent on the nam12, 925mb winds on the nam12 reach
25-35 knots during the watch period, and they are even higher on
the high resolution arw. Given the explosive growth that has been
observed on the chetco bar fire in the past 24 hours, concern is
high that the fire will be substantially driven by wind later
Saturday through Sunday morning. The watch was issued for all of
the zone because of uncertainty related to rhs and because winds
under this pattern tend to be strongest on the ridges and down the
river valleys toward the coast, to include the chetco.

While dryness and instability on Saturday at most locations will
not be as critical as today, the combination of dry enough
conditions and wind on the west side is likely to result in
another active burn period Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

The high elevation haines lowers from 5 to 4, while the mid-level
haines will remain a 5 through the day Saturday.

Winds are expected to weaken some on Sunday. The flow aloft shifts
to southerly Monday and moisture and instability are expected to
arrive Tuesday. Thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday and
Wednesday from approximately the cascades and siskiyous south and
eastward. Btl

Prev discussion issued 410 pm pdt Fri aug 18 2017
short term... A shortwave trough will drop down the coast tonight
into Saturday then shift south of the area late Saturday.

Meanwhile an upper ridge will remain centered offshore and a
surface thermal trough will persist along the coast. This pattern
will bring continued warm temperatures to the area with dry
conditions.

The main effect of the shortwave is that it will bring a few
degrees of cooling to the area. Also expect an increase in
humidity tonight for areas west of the southern oregon cascades.

This is temporary though since the thermal trough strengthens
Saturday night into Sunday morning bringing another round of dry
conditions along with moderate to strong winds over the coastal
mountains. As a result expect the potential for critical fire
weather concerns Saturday night into Sunday morning. A fire
weather watch is in effect (see the rfwmfr for details).

With the active chetco fire in southern curry county and the
northeast winds expect smoke to continue to move into the
brookings area at times. Also the northeast winds will bring a
chetco effect with some warm temperatures in the brookings area.

Numerous fires are present in the area. With the northeast to east
winds occuring each night then north to northwest winds in the
afternoon and evening expect most inland areas to continue to
experience smoke. Air quality alerts are in effect for douglas,
curry, josephine, jackson and klamath counties. This smoke will
continue this weekend and into early next week. The areas most
impacted by smoke may fluctuate though.

The ridge will nudge inland on Sunday then be centered over the
region on Monday. For the day of the eclipse, expect dry
conditions with mostly clear skies except for areas over southwest
oregon and northern california. Coastal areas north of cape
blanco and near brookings will see the potential for cloudy skies
with low clouds or patchy fog early Monday morning. These clouds
may extend into the coquille valley and into northwest douglas
county near the coast. Gradual clearing is expected in the mid to
late morning. Confidence remains low to moderate on the timing and
amount of low clouds though. So will need to monitor this will
future model runs.

Long term... Tuesday and Wednesday, models show moisture rotating
around an upper low off the south-central california coast. This
moisture combined with instability and upper level disturbances
will bring a slight chance to chance of thunderstorms to inland
areas Tuesday and Wednesday. The best chance for showers or
thunderstorms will be across northern california and from the
siskiyous and cascades eastward.

An upper trough will near the coast Wednesday night and move into
the region on Thursday. This will bring somewhat cooler
temperatures as well as a slight chance for showers along the coos
and douglas coast and into the coastal mountains.

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... Fire weather watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday
morning for orz619.

Ca... None.

Pacific coastal waters... Small craft advisory until 11 pm pdt
Sunday for pzz350-356-370-376.

Gale warning until 11 pm pdt Sunday for pzz356-376.

Mas cc btl fb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 86 mi45 min S 5.1 G 7 56°F 61°F1015.6 hPa
46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA 96 mi73 min N 23 G 27 55°F 53°F8 ft1014.8 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Crescent City, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Montague Siskiyou County Airport, CA9 mi70 minVar 410.00 miFair61°F34°F36%1017.4 hPa

Wind History from SIY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3445NW5N10
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N17N15N13N10N7N8N6N6N6SE44N7
1 day agoCalmSW3CalmCalmN334N4Calm33N8N10N14N13N10N12N12N5NW5E4SW4NE4Calm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3Calm6N8NW11
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N12N10NW4NW5N7NE4CalmSE3

Tide / Current Tables for Crescent City, California
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Crescent City
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:06 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:28 AM PDT     -0.83 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:29 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:03 AM PDT     5.91 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:19 PM PDT     2.37 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:52 PM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:10 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:21 PM PDT     7.75 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.23.31.50.1-0.7-0.70.11.434.55.55.95.64.83.82.92.42.53.34.55.97.17.77.6

Tide / Current Tables for Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon
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Brookings
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:05 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:32 AM PDT     -0.83 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:29 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:04 AM PDT     5.91 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:23 PM PDT     2.37 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:54 PM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:11 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:22 PM PDT     7.75 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.23.41.60.1-0.7-0.701.434.55.55.95.64.93.82.92.42.53.24.45.877.77.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.