Tuesday, October16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hornbrook, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:24AMSunset 6:27PM Tuesday October 16, 2018 6:50 PM PDT (01:50 UTC) Moonrise 1:36PMMoonset 11:18PM Illumination 50% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ330 1126 Pm Pdt Fri Aug 9 2013
.thunderstorms over the waters... Thunderstorms over the waters have weakened but isolated storms will continue overnight. Mariners can expect gusty and erratic winds with the storms along with frequent lightning. If caught on the open water stay below deck if possible...keep away from ungrounded metal objects. Lat...lon 4397 12411 4396 12411 4400 12413 4284 12455 4242 12440 4225 12441 4205 12428 4184 12422 4181 12580 4198 12579 4220 12589 4370 12576 4386 12565 4399 12562 4403 12414
PZZ300 202 Pm Pdt Tue Oct 16 2018
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Winds will generally remain below 15 knots through at least Friday. Persistent long period southerly swell will continue through the week. A long period west to northwest swell is expected to arrive Wednesday into Thursday, with hazardous bar and surf conditions becoming a concern. SWell will begin to diminish Thursday night as the period shortens. A thermal trough could redevelop this weekend bringing northerly winds to the coastal waters. Advisory level seas will be possible in the outer zones as the swell groups combine with the wind waves.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hornbrook, CA
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location: 41.9, -122.57     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 162144
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
244 pm pdt Tue oct 16 2018

Discussion A persistent, dry and warm (warm daytime high
temperatures with cool nights) weather pattern is expected
through the week. The thermal trough that's been at the coast the
past several days will not completely depart the region but move
back and forth from the coast to inland areas. Offshore east-
northeast winds are weakening across the forecast area today as
the thermal trough begins its inland push. Even so, gusty east
winds and low humidity are expected for one more night tonight
over the cascades, western siskiyou county and the siskiyous, and
the coast range. This will keep temperatures up in higher terrain
areas. Inversions will become established over the valleys
tonight, and cold temperatures are again expected. A freeze
warning and frost advisory have been issued for portions of
josephine and jackson counties for tonight. To illustrate the
expected differences in weather over the mountains and valleys
tonight, the forecast low temperature at sexton mountain at 4000
feet is 55, while the forecast low in medford is 37.

On Wednesday the thermal trough moves over the cascades, and winds
will be relatively light in most places tomorrow. Afternoon high
temperatures will be about 10 degrees above normal for this time
of year. Thursday will feature similar conditions.

On Friday the coastal thermal trough will redevelop, at least
partially in response to a building upper ridge. Temperatures will
likely reach a maximum for the week on Friday and Saturday, and
humidity will trend lower again. Winds over the high terrain will
shift to east to northeast again and become gusty, though winds do
not look as strong as the recent gusty northeast winds.

All throughout these warm and dry conditions, it's likely that
smoke will at least impact areas near the klondike fire and
towards the coast in the near-term. After that, it's hard to say
how much impact the smoke will have, but we'll monitor the smoke
impact in the near-term and then make adjustments for later in the
week. Right now, no unhealthy air quality is being observed, but
there aren't monitoring stations at the coast right now.

After more dry days over the weekend, we introduce cooler
temperatures and rain to the forecast on Tuesday. Models are in
good agreement on a pattern change and at least two fronts moving
through from the middle to late week time period. GEFS data shows
a broad range of rain amounts possible. So, we have high
confidence in cooler temperatures and increasing rain chances (of
course, since they are zero presently) but not in the amount of
rain at this point.

Aviation For the 16 18z tafs... Guidance is suggesting that areas
of lifr ifr CIGS may return again to the coast tonight, but the
overall pattern makes this assessment difficult. Do not have enough
confidence to put it in the taf, but it is possible. Otherwise,
expectVFR conditions through the TAF period except for local
visibility reductions from smoke in northern curry county and
southern coos county, for areas downwind of the klondike wildfire.

-schaaf

Marine Updated 130 pm pdt Tuesday 16 october 2018... Winds will
generally remain below 15 kts through at least Friday. A persistent
long period southerly swell of around 3 feet may produce rough bar
conditions at brookings and elevated surf at port orford through
tonight.

Wednesday into Thursday, a longer period west to northwest swell at
16 to 18 seconds will build into the coastal waters. This will
combine with the aforementioned smaller long period southerly swell
and could make for hazardous bar conditions Wednesday into Thursday.

Overall, wave heights will remain below 10 feet as this is only a 7-
8 foot swell. But, given the longer period swell, surf conditions
could be a concern as well. Breaker heights of 10 to 12 feet are
possible Wednesday into Thursday and this could catch some beach-
goers off guard as this is a bit higher than what has been typical
for the past few weeks. As a result, a beach hazards statement
remains in effect. The largest threat for sneaker waves will occur
Wednesday morning. Swell will begin to diminish Thursday night as
the period shortens, then seas will subside through Saturday night.

It appears as a thermal trough will try to build in again this
weekend. This will increase northerly winds (they are not expected
to reach advisory level) and add a slightly higher wind wave group.

The combined wind wave and swell groups will create the possibility
for small craft advisory seas in portions of the outer waters. Early
next week, a front may move into the coast and west swell dominated
seas may increase. -schaaf cc

Fire weather Updated 130 pm pdt Tuesday, 16 october 2018...

a very dry air mass remains in place over the region. Easterly winds
will be strong enough over ridges for red flag warning conditions to
continue for portions of western siskiyou county and the siskiyous,
but they will gradually weaken through the evening and tonight.

Tonight and Wednesday morning, breezy east winds are expected to
persist over the cascades with mainly light east winds over other
ridges. Moderate to locally poor recoveries are expected over the
ridges tonight into Wednesday morning.

As light easterly flow persists into the weekend, daytime rhs are
likely to remain low across the area, with moderate to locally poor
recoveries expected on the ridges. There will be some gradual but
steady improvement through the week. Light east winds could increase
some again Friday night into Saturday, though they are likely to be
much lighter than has been observed the last two days. Forecasts
from the GFS indicate a pressure gradient around 5 mb over the area
Saturday morning versus the previous couple days with 16mb analyzed
by the GFS for Sunday morning and 12mb for Monday and 8mb today.

Nearly all models depict a change in the pattern next week, which is
expected to bring higher rhs and possibly some rain to the region.

As is typical with these events that follow prolonged dry periods,
it will be difficult to nail down exactly when and how much rain we
could see for any given area until we get closer to the time of
arrival. -cc bpn

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... Beach hazards statement from late tonight through Wednesday
evening for orz021-022.

Frost advisory from 3 am to 9 am pdt Wednesday for orz024-026.

Red flag warning until 8 pm pdt this evening for orz621.

Freeze warning from 3 am to 9 am pdt Wednesday for orz024.

Ca... Red flag warning until 8 pm pdt this evening for caz280.

Pacific coastal waters... Beach hazards statement from late tonight through Wednesday
evening for pzz350-356.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 86 mi39 min NNW 8.9 G 11 50°F 56°F1019.4 hPa
46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA 96 mi61 min NNW 12 G 14 51°F 53°F4 ft1019.5 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Crescent City, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Montague Siskiyou County Airport, CA9 mi58 minS 310.00 miFair73°F21°F14%1022.3 hPa

Wind History from SIY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW33CalmS4CalmCalmW4CalmS3
1 day agoN5N7N9
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E6NE6NE8E4NE5CalmCalmSE3CalmW3SW4Calm3CalmE44W4W6S5
2 days ago3NE5N9NE7CalmN13N11N11N104N9N11
G20
N14N14N14NW8N4SW54N4--E16E10E15

Tide / Current Tables for Crescent City, California (2) (expired 1989-12-31)
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Crescent City
Click for Map
Tue -- 06:49 AM PDT     5.25 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:30 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:02 AM PDT     First Quarter
Tue -- 11:55 AM PDT     3.79 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:41 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:24 PM PDT     5.54 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:33 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.91.3233.94.75.15.254.74.23.93.83.94.34.85.25.55.55.14.43.52.51.7

Tide / Current Tables for Crescent City, California
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Crescent City
Click for Map
Tue -- 06:50 AM PDT     5.25 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:30 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:02 AM PDT     First Quarter
Tue -- 11:57 AM PDT     3.76 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:41 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:27 PM PDT     5.55 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:33 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.91.3233.94.75.15.25.14.74.23.93.83.94.34.85.25.55.55.14.43.52.61.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.