Friday, February15, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Raynham Center, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 5:18PM Friday February 15, 2019 2:32 PM EST (19:32 UTC) Moonrise 1:51PMMoonset 4:08AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ234 Buzzards Bay- 116 Pm Est Fri Feb 15 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 1 am est Saturday...
This afternoon..S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers likely.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers likely.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun night..S winds around 5 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon night..N winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 116 Pm Est Fri Feb 15 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Low pressure will track across the great lakes overnight. Its attending cold front sweeps across the waters by Saturday morning. A wave of low pressure may track near the southern waters late Sunday or early Monday. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Raynham Center, MA
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location: 41.9, -71.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 151806
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
106 pm est Fri feb 15 2019

Synopsis
Brief warm-up today ahead of an approaching cold front that will be
accompanied by scattered showers. Dry and seasonably cool weather
follows tonight into this weekend. Gradually colder weather
overspreads the region early next week that may be accompanied by
some light snow or flurries Sunday night into Monday morning and
possibly more widespread snow or wintry mix next Wednesday or
Thursday. Otherwise mainly dry weather prevails.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
100 pm update...

temps warming above freezing across most of the far interior.

Mesonet data shows a few localized spots at freezing, however at
this time precip returns over the far interior are very light
and not seeing much reaching the ground. Thus allowed the
winter weather advisory to expire at noon today.

Warm front was still draped across southern new england, with
much warmer temps in the 40s and low 50s south of a line from
bdl to orh to lwm. Temps N of that line were still mainly in the
mid and upper 30s. Seeing showers develop across eastern ma and
ri, along and ahead of a feed of modest instability, 100 to 200
j kg of cape. This marginal instability coupled with strong jet
dynamics may allow for some rumbles of thunder this afternoon.

Warm front should eventually lift thru our area before the cold
front starts to close in from the west. Looking at highs in the
upper 40s to mid 50s across much of the area, except cooler
across far interior ma where highs in the low to mid 40s are
expected.

Early morning discussion follows...

===================================================================
a mid level trough and attendant surface low pressure system
are moving through the great lakes region early this morning,
headed northeast where the low will pass north of new england.

Thus, we'll see the influence of both the warm and cold front
through the day today. Currently WAA on southerly flow is
keeping temperatures steady or rising through the morning.

Southwest flow ahead of our next upper level trough continues to
bring increased high clouds into the region and model soundings
indicate the low and mid levels saturate by 12-15z.

Precipitation chances expand from west to east after 12z.

Expecting plenty of scattered rain and snow (changing to rain)
showers through the day with a good moisture tap of pwats over
0.75" or 1.5 sd above normal, especially over the
south southeast coast. Temperatures will support snow initially
in NW ma before surface temps rise above freezing later this
morning; expecting less than an inch out of it before
transitioning to rain. We'll first see scattered showers move
through during the morning with warm frontal and isentropic lift
aided by a strong southerly LLJ of 40-45 kts at 925. This jet
strengthens to ~60kts centered over southeast ma (also where the
best moisture is) by the afternoon and as the cold front
approaches we'll see more widespread potentially heavy showers
blossom. Most everyone has a chance to see rain but the best
chance for heavy showers is over southeast ma where the best
moisture and lift exits.

As the LLJ moves in after 12z we'll see S winds increase and
become gusty as warmer air is advected north. One of the big
questions of the day is how far north the warm sector makes it
this afternoon; going with a blend of guidance, all showing
high temperatures making it into the low to mid 50s.

Additionally, that LLJ pushes in some very warm air around
925mb (approaching 8c right along the SE coast) which a few
models indicate could produce enough elevated instability to get
a rumble of thunder or two out of some of those heavier showers
this afternoon evening; best chance over southeast ma.

The cold front moves into western ma after 0z and exits the
east coast after 09z. This ushers in a colder and drier post
frontal air mass and ushers out the llj. Winds come down
overnight and skies begin to clear. Lows dip into the 20s to mid
30s overnight.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Saturday
Pleasant weekend ahead. Behind the cold front expecting dry and
colder conditions to start the weekend. High pressure begins to
build in from the west bringing clear skies and light winds.

Long term Saturday night through Thursday
Highlights...

* trend toward slightly colder than normal weather this period
* chance of light snow flurries Sunday night-Monday morning and
perhaps more widespread snow wintry mix next Wed and or thu
* otherwise mainly dry weather prevails
overview ...

ensembles and deterministic guidance in good agreement on the long
wave pattern this period featuring a western CONUS trough along with
a downstream subtropical ridge over the southeast states and cold
confluent flow over new england. The challenge with this portion of
the forecast is as pacific short wave energy moisture ejects
northeast toward new england, how much deamplification occurs with
each short wave as it begins to encounter anticyclonic flow on the
western periphery of the subtropical ridge? Given the persistent
confluent flow expected across new england, any precipitation
appears to be more nuisance than significant this period.

Daily details ...

sat night Sunday ...

northern stream short wave energy exits new england late Sat with
caa in its wake. Thus colder and blustery Sat night but remaining
dry. Confluent flow then provides high pres building into new
england Sunday yielding dry weather and light winds. Temps will run
a few degs colder than normal with highs Sunday in the 30s.

Sunday night Monday ...

pacific short wave moisture approaches new england from the
southwest. This short wave appears to deamplify as it
approaches the region and encounters anticyclonic flow as it
rides up and over the subtropical ridge. 00z nam ECMWF and its
12z ensembles suggest spotty light snow or flurries possible as
deep layer moisture erodes as it enters confluent flow across
new england. Thus not expecting much if any snow accumulations.

Temps a few degs colder than normal with highs in the 30s.

Tuesday ...

confluent flow and high pres continue to dominant our weather. So
expect dry cold weather with highs 30-35.

Wednesday Thursday...

00z gfs ECMWF and its ensembles have trended slower with next
pacific short wave and its moisture field with precip holding off
until Wed night or thu. Column may be cold enough initially to
support snow but with mid level low tracking well to the northwest
across the great lakes, mid level warming across new england
increases the chances for snow to a wintry mix. As mentioned above
given pacific energy weakens as it encounters anticyclonic flow
climbing up and over subtropical southeast ridge, not expecting a
major winter weather event here. However could be enough snow ice to
have some travel impacts, just way too early to get specific.

Perhaps more significant are extremely high tides next week with
12.11 ft at boston wed. Thus any weak onshore flow will likely
result in minor coastal flooding. Therefore will need to watch
this closely.

Aviation 18z Friday through Wednesday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Saturday ... Moderate confidence thru this
evening, then high confidence.

18z update... A mix ofVFR and MVFR CIGS thru 00z this evening,
withVFR CIGS more prevalent south of a warm front that extended
from bdl to orh to lwm as of 18z. Localized ifr conditions along
an N of the front. Scattered showers cross the area producing
locally reduced vsbys. S winds, gusting 25 to 30 kts at times e
coastal ma and ri.

Tonight... MVFR CIGS to start with sct-isold -shra early, then becoming
vfr. S SW winds gusting 25-30 kts early E ma and ri, becoming w
overnight and diminishing.

Saturday...VFR. Light NW winds.

Kbos terminal... Moderate confidence in taf. Changeable cig
conditions probable, overall expecting MVFR to lowVFR, then
becomingVFR after 05z.

Kbdl terminal... Moderate confidence in taf. Changeable cig
conditions possible, overall expectingVFR. Brief periods of
MVFR conditions possible with showers until 03z.

Outlook Saturday night through Tuesday ...

Saturday night:VFR. Breezy.

Sunday:VFR.

Sunday night: mainlyVFR, with areas ifr possible. Slight
chance shsn.

Washingtons birthday: MVFR ifr conditions possible. Breezy.

Slight chance shsn.

Monday night:VFR. Breezy.

Tuesday:VFR.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Saturday ... High confidence.

This afternoon... Small craft advisory gusts over the nearshore
coastal waters. Gale warnings along the E and S outer waters,
with gusts 35 to 40 kts there. Otherwise, showers and
localized fog with reduced vsbys.

Friday night... Gale warnings continue for E outer waters into the
evening. Otherwise, SCA conditions continue into the overnight as
winds gradually diminish. Rough seas up to 10 ft to start the
evening, gradually subsiding.

Outlook Saturday night through Tuesday ...

Saturday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Sunday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Sunday night through washingtons birthday: winds less than
25 kt. Slight chance of snow showers. Visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Monday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of snow showers. Areas of visibility 1 to
3 nm.

Tuesday: winds less than 25 kt.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 1 am est Saturday for anz231>234-
236.

Small craft advisory until 8 pm est this evening for anz230.

Small craft advisory until 3 pm est Saturday for anz235-237.

Gale warning until 9 pm est this evening for anz250-254.

Gale warning until 5 pm est this afternoon for anz251.

Gale warning until 6 pm est this evening for anz255-256.

Synopsis... Nocera bw
near term... Nocera bw nmb
short term... Bw
long term... Nocera
aviation... Nocera bw nmb
marine... Nocera bw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 16 mi39 min 52°F 42°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 16 mi39 min S 21 G 34 53°F 1006.6 hPa
FRXM3 16 mi39 min 54°F 48°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 21 mi39 min S 7 G 9.9 47°F 37°F1005.8 hPa
PVDR1 21 mi39 min SSE 20 G 22 45°F 1006.2 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 21 mi39 min S 17 G 26 43°F 37°F1006.3 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 25 mi108 min SSW 11 47°F 1008 hPa44°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 25 mi39 min SSW 8.9 G 15 46°F 1006.4 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 30 mi39 min S 20 G 26 46°F 38°F1006.7 hPa
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 31 mi39 min 49°F 1005.7 hPa
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 32 mi39 min 49°F 35°F1007.6 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 32 mi39 min S 19 G 24 47°F 37°F1006.5 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 34 mi108 min SE 7 42°F 1010 hPa41°F
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 35 mi33 min SSE 29 G 30 47°F 1007 hPa (-4.4)
44090 37 mi33 min 36°F4 ft
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 37 mi43 min SE 19 G 21 43°F 40°F5 ft1006.5 hPa (-4.9)43°F
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 48 mi33 min SSE 23 G 27 43°F 34°F1008.3 hPa (-4.3)41°F
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 49 mi89 min SSE 23 G 29 42°F 39°F7 ft1006.8 hPa

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA1 mi41 minS 8 G 1710.00 miLight Rain53°F46°F80%1006.4 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA15 mi40 minS 20 G 3110.00 miOvercast and Breezy51°F48°F89%1006.8 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA15 mi41 minS 12 G 2710.00 miOvercast50°F46°F86%1007 hPa
Pawtucket, North Central State Airport, RI20 mi37 minVar 610.00 miOvercast48°F46°F93%1000.6 hPa
East Milton, MA22 mi37 minSSE 21 G 31 miBreezy45°F45°F100%1006.1 hPa
Norwood, Norwood Memorial Airport, MA22 mi40 minSSE 14 G 217.00 miLight Rain51°F46°F83%1005.6 hPa
Marshfield Airport, MA23 mi38 minS 11 G 1710.00 miOvercast52°F48°F88%1006.4 hPa

Wind History from TAN (wind in knots)
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W9NW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE5SE4E3E7SE7SE10SE11
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1 day agoW10
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2 days agoE53NE4E4E6E6E65E5E5N3CalmNW3CalmW3W4NW63W63W7W7
G17
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G22

Tide / Current Tables for Taunton, Taunton River, Massachusetts
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Taunton
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:07 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:46 AM EST     2.85 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:40 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:45 AM EST     0.09 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 12:51 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:14 PM EST     2.42 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:17 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 11:52 PM EST     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.81.42.12.72.82.62.11.50.90.40.10.10.30.71.322.42.321.40.80.3-0

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:45 AM EST     3.66 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 03:05 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:12 AM EST     -0.16 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:38 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:17 AM EST     -4.11 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 11:22 AM EST     0.12 knots Slack
Fri -- 12:49 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:27 PM EST     3.89 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:15 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:03 PM EST     -0.03 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:51 PM EST     -3.97 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 11:51 PM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.83.53.63.32.61.1-2.4-3.6-4.1-4-3.2-1.72.23.43.83.83.42.70.6-2.7-3.7-4-3.5-2.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.