Wednesday, August22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Raynham Center, MA

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Sunrise 5:59AMSunset 7:34PM Wednesday August 22, 2018 1:51 AM EDT (05:51 UTC) Moonrise 5:26PMMoonset 2:17AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ234 Buzzards Bay- 116 Am Edt Wed Aug 22 2018
Rest of tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. Patchy fog. A chance of tstms with a slight chance of showers. Some tstms may produce heavy rainfall. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers and tstms. Some tstms may produce heavy rainfall. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of tstms.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 116 Am Edt Wed Aug 22 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A warm front approaches tonight from the sw and will be accompanied by areas of fog and showers late, along with isolated tstms. The front lifts north Wed followed by a cold front from the W Wed afternoon which will be accompanied by another round of showers with isolated tstms. High pres over the ohio valley Thu builds east over new england through Fri. The high will shift offshore Sat and Sun. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Raynham Center, MA
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location: 41.9, -71.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 220209
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
1009 pm edt Tue aug 21 2018

Synopsis
A low pressure system will bring two rounds of scattered showers
and embedded thunderstorms. The first very late tonight into
Wednesday morning, then a second round Wednesday afternoon along
with the return of high humidity. High pressure will then
follow, bringing mainly dry and comfortable weather Thursday
and Friday. Dry weather will likely persist through the weekend
although it will turn a bit warmer. Very warm to hot
temperatures along with humid conditions may return by early
next week.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
1005 pm update...

some clear skies still hanging on over eastern ma into northeast
ri. However this will be very short lived as strong WAA pattern
evolving over the northeast, as 100 kt upper level jet streak
entering the great lakes (per SPC mesoanalysis) ejects 2.3 inch pwat
airmass from the mid atlc northward into new england. Still
expecting showers with embedded t-storms and heavy downpours to
overspread the region 06z to 12z west to east across the region.

Heavy downpours will impact morning commute but heavy rain may
not be as widespread as earlier thought. Anyway, previous
forecast remains on track. Earlier discussion below.

==================================================================
dry weather persists this evening, but low clouds will continue
to increase in coverage and may see some fog develop too with
cooling boundary layer increasing low level moisture.

Appears the threat for showers and embedded t-storms will be
mainly after 2 or 3 am across interior southern new england and
near daybreak along the coastal plain. Main concern continues to
be brief heavy rain localized street flooding which may impact
part of the morning commute. Odds favor storms being sub-severe
as surface instability appears to lag behind warm front higher
low level helicity. Nonetheless... Given we have a modest LLJ 70+
dewpoints working northward along with a warm front can not
rule out the low risk for an isolated severe t-storm very
localized wind damage. While unlikely, this does include the
low risk for a brief tornado waterspout.

Previous discussion:
overnight, the main concerns will be the progress of a low
pressure and its warm front. Have high confidence in this low
pressure moving through the great lakes into canada. Have lower
confidence in the timing of a warm front. Many members of the
21 12z guidance suite suggest this front could move into
northern new england before daybreak. Thinking is this likely a
bit too quick. Have more confidence in a warm frontal passage in
the 8-11 am Wednesday time range.

This could be key to weather outcomes. The higher dew points
will be south of this warm front. These higher dew points will
provide the fuel for local downpours, as well as lowering cloud
bases. Some of the higher resolution short-term guidance suggest
high values of shear in the 0-1 km layer. Thus, still need to
be wary of rotating thunderstorms.

A caveat to this will be the time of day. Instability should not
be very high overnight, but would be a little higher if our
region can tap into the higher dew points south of the warm
front. At this point, have much more confidence in the potential
for locally heavy rainfall.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through Wednesday night
* a few strong to severe storms possible
* localized street flooding possible, too
Wednesday...

once our region firmly gets into the warm sector, looking at a
strong southerly low level jet to help recharge the instability
for Wednesday afternoon. Current timing for a cold front is
during the afternoon and evening. The quicker sunshine develops
in the morning, the greater the risk for strong to severe
thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening.

Otherwise, still expecting another day of higher heat and
humidity. This should start to an end later Wednesday night, as
drier air arrives behind a cold front.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
Highlights...

* dry and comfortable weather Thu into the weekend
* very warm to hot humid weather likely returns early next week
Thursday and Friday... .

Large high pressure will be in control of our weather Thursday
and Friday. This will bring rather cool nights with lows mainly
in the 50s... But some upper 40s possible in the normally coolest
outlying locations. Highs should be in the upper 70s to the
lower 80s with plenty of sunshine low humidity.

Saturday and Sunday...

the high pressure system slowly moves off the coast this
weekend. However, mainly dry weather will likely prevail with
the lack of synoptic scale forcing. Temperatures will also
moderate a bit, mainly looking at highs in the lower to middle
80s.

Monday and Tuesday...

upper level ridge to our south will pump a west southwest flow
of unseasonable warmth humidity into southern new england early
next week. This is supported by most long range guidance, but
uncertainty in regards to just how above normal temperatures
get. The potential exists for a return of 90+ degree heat. There
probably will also be at least some risk for a few
thunderstorms, but low confidence especially in regards to
timing.

Aviation 02z Wednesday through Sunday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Wednesday night ...

10 pm update...

no major changes with tafs. Still expecting showers with
embedded thunder to overspread the area 06z to 12z west to east.

Earlier discussion below.

================================================================
tonight... Moderate confidence. Low end MVFR-ifr become
widespread yet again but timing remains uncertain. Lifr
conditions are possible too particularly along portions of the
coast high terrain in low clouds and fog. Showers and embedded
t-storms with locally heavy rain overspread the region from
southwest to northeast between 6z and 12z. Llws possible toward
daybreak.

Wednesday... Moderate confidence. Widespread shra with embedded
tsra should end during the morning from west to east.

Additional, but more hit and miss showers and t-storms expected
to develop during the afternoon. Lower CIGS vsbys should improve
to perhaps mainlyVFR-MVFR by mid to late afternoon, but that will
be outside of any additional scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday night...

mainlyVFR.

Kbos terminal... Moderate confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... Moderate confidence in taf.

Outlook Thursday through Sunday ...

Thursday through Saturday night:VFR.

Sunday:VFR.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Wednesday night ... High confidence.

Low risk for a brief waterspout late tonight as a warm front
moves across the waters. Vsby lowered at times in morning fog
and scattered thunderstorms, then improving before second round
of thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Some risk for small craft advisories along the southern outer
coastal waters due to marginal 25 kt gusts and 5 ft seas.

Outlook Thursday through Sunday ...

Thursday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

Thursday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.

Friday through Sunday: winds less than 25 kt.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from noon to 8 pm edt Wednesday for
anz232-233.

Small craft advisory from noon Wednesday to 11 am edt Thursday
for anz235-237.

Small craft advisory from 9 am Wednesday to 7 am edt Thursday
for anz250.

Small craft advisory from 9 am Wednesday to 6 pm edt Thursday
for anz254>256.

Synopsis... Belk frank
near term... Belk frank nocera
short term... Belk
long term... Frank
aviation... Belk frank nocera
marine... Belk frank


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 16 mi46 min 67°F 74°F1014.3 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 16 mi34 min S 6 G 8 68°F 1013.6 hPa
FRXM3 16 mi34 min 67°F 65°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 21 mi46 min SSW 7 G 9.9 67°F 73°F1012.9 hPa
PVDR1 21 mi40 min S 9.9 G 13 68°F 1013.8 hPa68°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 21 mi34 min SSE 12 G 14 68°F 74°F1013.1 hPa
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 25 mi46 min S 1.9 G 5.1 67°F 1013.8 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 25 mi67 min S 4.1 67°F 1014 hPa65°F
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 30 mi46 min SSE 8.9 G 11 68°F 75°F1013.6 hPa
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 31 mi40 min 66°F 1012.7 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 32 mi40 min SE 6 G 7 67°F 69°F1013.6 hPa
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 32 mi34 min 68°F 74°F1013.6 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 34 mi67 min Calm 69°F 1014 hPa68°F
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 35 mi112 min SSE 8 G 8.9 67°F 1015.1 hPa (-1.7)
44090 37 mi82 min 68°F1 ft
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 37 mi62 min SSE 5.8 G 9.7 67°F 68°F4 ft1013.5 hPa (-2.0)65°F
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 48 mi32 min E 3.9 G 5.8 67°F 74°F1013.4 hPa66°F
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 49 mi108 min S 7.8 G 9.7 67°F 68°F4 ft1013.3 hPa

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA1 mi60 minSSE 34.00 miFog/Mist67°F64°F93%1013.7 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA15 mi60 minN 04.00 miFog/Mist67°F64°F93%1014.1 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA15 mi59 minN 06.00 miFog/Mist66°F66°F100%1013.5 hPa
Pawtucket, North Central State Airport, RI20 mi56 minSSE 35.00 miFog/Mist64°F64°F100%1008.5 hPa
East Milton, MA22 mi56 minSE 8 mi62°F62°F100%1014.6 hPa
Norwood, Norwood Memorial Airport, MA22 mi59 minN 07.00 miFair60°F59°F96%1013.4 hPa
Marshfield Airport, MA23 mi57 minN 010.00 miOvercast68°F66°F94%1013.9 hPa

Wind History from TAN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--CalmN33CalmN3N3N4NE654E34E5E5E7E6E6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3
1 day agoN3Calm444N64NE5N7N5NE7
G19
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NE8NE7N75CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days ago43NE4Calm3N3NE5NE9
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--N8
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G15
--34CalmNE4433

Tide / Current Tables for Taunton, Taunton River, Massachusetts
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Taunton
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:17 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:29 AM EDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:40 AM EDT     2.51 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:53 PM EDT     0.60 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:26 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:05 PM EDT     3.03 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.70.70.711.72.42.52.31.91.410.80.60.60.71.11.92.632.92.521.4

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:11 AM EDT     0.04 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:16 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:39 AM EDT     3.81 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 05:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:44 AM EDT     -0.15 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:22 AM EDT     -3.79 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 01:36 PM EDT     0.02 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:54 PM EDT     3.62 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 05:23 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:52 PM EDT     -0.06 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:42 PM EDT     -4.11 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-2.9-1.22.43.33.73.83.52.5-1.5-3.2-3.7-3.7-3.1-21.62.93.53.63.42.6-1.1-3.2-4-4.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.