Saturday, December15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Raynham Center, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 4:15PM Saturday December 15, 2018 12:03 AM EST (05:03 UTC) Moonrise 1:21PMMoonset 12:07AM Illumination 51% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ234 Buzzards Bay- 1008 Pm Est Fri Dec 14 2018
Overnight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less, then around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Sat night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 4 ft. A chance of rain in the morning, then rain likely in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 4 ft. Rain likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of rain in the morning.
Mon night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 4 ft.
Tue..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 4 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 1008 Pm Est Fri Dec 14 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. An series of low pres systems track south of southern new england over the weekend into Monday. High pres builds back towards the waters from the W Tue into Wed. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Raynham Center, MA
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location: 41.9, -71.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 150001
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
701 pm est Fri dec 14 2018

Synopsis
High pressure east of new england moves farther offshore tonight
with a milder return flow into the area which may be accompanied by
a few light rain showers sprinkles. Weak low pressure tracks well
south of new england Saturday, yielding a few light rain showers
sprinkles in the morning. Otherwise dry weather prevails and mild
Saturday with highs in the upper 40s and lower 50s, about 10 degrees
above normal. Another low pressure will develop and move
southeast of the area late Sunday with a wintry mix across the
interior and rain across the rest of southern new england.

Colder weather returns Monday into Tuesday.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
7pm update...

confluence aloft continues to be felt as clipper system slides
through N new england and cutoff continues to shift to the E ne.

However, the resulting subsidence has allowed a lowered deck of
clouds to continue to build across the region. This will mean
mainly bkn ovc conditions overnight, which will help keep the
min temps more mild than previous nights.

Otherwise, ridging returns tomorrow as a wave shifts to the,
this should allow some lower lvl dry air drainage from the n
with partial clearing from N new england s.

For the most part, the current forecast reflects this trends,
most of the update will be to bring temps dwpts up to current
trends and increase overnight cloud cover.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through Saturday night
Saturday...

confluent zone over the region shunts precip south of new england
along with associated frontal wave tracking south of 40n. However
clouds will be in abundance during the morning along with a spot
light shower sprinkle across ct ri and southeast ma. However as
northern stream short wave exits maine height rises over the area
combined with mid level flow becoming more anticyclonic, we should
see the clearing line traverse from north to south during the
afternoon. Thus clouds giving way to at least partial sunshine north
to south. The south coast may have to wait until almost sunset
before clearing line approaches from the north.

Mild airmass overhead Sat with 925 mb temps running around +7c to
+8c. In a well mixed blyr this would yield highs around 60. However
subsidence inversion from 1028 mb high building in from the
northwest will limit mixing below 925 mb. Nevertheless this will
still support highs from the upper 40s to lower 50s, about 10 degs
warmer than normal!
light n-nw winds will trend toward nne late in the day.

Saturday night...

dry weather behind departing northern stream short wave along with
weak low level CAA as dew pts fall back into the 20s. 1025 mb high
over maine will provide some radiational cooling conditions for the
interior, so followed some of the colder guidance there. Closer to
the coast not as cold given increasing NE flow. Low risk of precip
entering ct toward 12z Sunday, otherwise dry weather prevails.

Long term Sunday through Friday
* highlights...

- wintry mix around Sunday
- turning colder Monday through Tuesday
- mild conditions return Wednesday into Thursday
- another storm system possible late week weekend
overview and model preferences...

the key shortwave, a N stream open trof from the W pacific,
will be moving onshore this afternoon evening. Expect that
confidence in forecast details will begin rising more
significantly with this landfall. At odds, is the complex
interaction between this energy and the meandering S stream
cutoff shifting N from into the day tomorrow. While there has
been a slight convergence of solutions in the track, as ensemble
clustering is now just NE of the 40 70 benchmark for coastal
low pres passage late sun, some of the p-type issues will be
better resolved over the next 24-36 hours. It should be noted,
that a true arctic influence is lacking in this case, so any
cold air for a p-type change will have to be dynamically
generated, and this will come in the timing and location of any
phasing that occurs. Beyond this system, the wave moving across
the CONUS will allow for a conduit of canadian air early next
week before the remnants of a W CONUS ridge lead to moderating
conditions into late week. Still a lot of spread for the late
week system, but this will have to be watched. Ensemble means
will be used as a baseline.

Sun into early mon...

cyclogenesis offshore of the DELMARVA will track e-ne late sun
into mon. Noting mid upper lvl trowal development as the low
deepens offshore, so there is enough to support widespread
stratiform precip with this update especially as pwats reach
nearly 2 std deviations above normal. With initial precip onset,
late day, will need to watch the NW valleys where temps could
still hold near freezing as mass fields continue to show a
modest cold air damming signal, suggesting a modest fzra risk.

Soundings are supporting of this into the evening hours. Ice
accretion is modest, as sfc temps will be very close to 0c, but
may still require headlines. Then, overnight into early mon,
continued deepening phasing along with the influx of colder air
could lead to a brief nw-se change to pl then sn. Accums would
be light as drier air is also beginning to intrude aloft and may
cutoff the dgz, supporting the pl risk. Bufkit supports this
possibility primarily across W ma ct, but again timing is the
key. Comma-head dynamics are also to be watched, as there is the
risk for pl sn impacts during the Mon am commute.

Late Mon into tue...

the coldest period as CAA increases across new england in the
wake of low pres and prior to +1025mb high pres. H85 temp
anomalies -5c to -10c are mirrored at h92, so expecting height
to struggle out of the upper 20s to low 30s while lows dip into
the teens and 20s. Noting strong pres rise fall couplet as well
suggesting blustery w-nw winds 20-30 mph which will lead to
daytime wind chills into the teens and 20s, single digits
overnight in the higher terrain. Lingering shsn, especially
across the far interior thanks to both lake enhanced moisture
and orographic lifting.

Wed and thu...

gradual moderation under high pres. The remnant ridging from
the W CONUS spills e, but flattens leading to confluent w-e
oriented upper lvl jet, locking coldest air to the n. Dry
conditions prevail Wed may still remain just below normal, but
by Thu temps should have returned to seasonal normal values or
warmer.

Fri...

clipper interaction with S stream energy worth watching. Given
the subtropical origins, wet dynamic system possible. Pattern
favors warmer solution, but something to watch as all features
become better sampled.

Aviation 23z Friday through Wednesday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Saturday night ... Moderate confidence.

Overnight...

mix ofVFR MVFR, but expect predominantly MVFR except SE ma.

This is due to a period of lowered CIGS which will gradually
dissipate during the morning. Some isolated foggy spots at
typically prone airports.

Saturday...

vfr with isolated MVFR in light scattered showers sprinkles with
highest chance across ct ri and southeast ma during the morning.

Modest n-nw winds.

Saturday night...

vfr to start but trending MVFR as the night progresses with rain
likely holding off until daybreak Sunday or later. NE winds
begin to increase especially south coast including CAPE cod and
islands where gusts up to 30 kt possible by Sunday morning.

Kbos terminal... Some timing and uncertainty issues on areal
coverage of MVFR CIGS this evening and overnight.

Kbdl terminal... Some timing and uncertainty issues on areal
coverage of MVFR CIGS this evening and overnight.

Outlook Sunday through Wednesday ...

Sunday through Sunday night: MVFR ifr conditions possible.

Windy with gusts to 35 kt. Chance ra with chance fzra, chance sn
across the interior.

Monday through Tuesday:VFR. Windy with gusts to 35 kt.

Tuesday night through Wednesday:VFR. Breezy.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Saturday night ... High confidence.

Tonight... High pressure offshore provides light s-se winds. Spot
shower sprinkle possible otherwise dry weather and good vsby.

Saturday... Weak low pres tracks south of 40n. Light nnw winds become
nne by days end. Spot shower sprinkle during the morning then dry
afternoon.

Saturday night... 1025 mb high settles over me but with approaching
low pres from the mid atlc NE winds approach 30 kt toward Sunday
morning along with risk of rain southern waters.

Outlook Sunday through Wednesday ...

Sunday through Sunday night: moderate risk for gale force winds
with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Rain likely.

Monday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with local
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Slight chance of
rain.

Monday night into Tuesday: strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt.

Rough seas up to 10 ft. Slight chance of rain and snow showers.

Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Tuesday night: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Wednesday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Gale watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for
anz232-233-235-237.

Gale watch from late Saturday night through Sunday evening for
anz254>256.

Synopsis... Nocera doody
near term... Doody
short term... Nocera
long term... Doody
aviation... Nocera doody
marine... Nocera doody


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 16 mi39 min 47°F 44°F1024.7 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 16 mi33 min SSW 12 G 16 48°F 1024.4 hPa
FRXM3 16 mi33 min 48°F 46°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 21 mi39 min SSW 4.1 G 6 45°F 44°F1023.8 hPa
PVDR1 21 mi33 min S 7 G 8.9 46°F 1024.2 hPa46°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 21 mi33 min S 13 G 14 44°F 42°F1024.3 hPa
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 25 mi39 min SW 6 G 9.9 46°F 1024.5 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 25 mi78 min SW 5.1 46°F 1025 hPa45°F
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 30 mi39 min SSW 8.9 G 9.9 46°F 42°F1024.7 hPa
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 31 mi33 min 44°F 1023.5 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 32 mi39 min SSW 8 G 9.9 47°F 42°F1024.5 hPa
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 32 mi33 min 45°F 40°F1024.4 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 34 mi78 min Calm 40°F 1026 hPa40°F
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 35 mi63 min S 16 G 16 47°F 1025.7 hPa (-2.3)
44090 37 mi33 min 42°F
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 37 mi73 min S 7.8 G 9.7 43°F 46°F2 ft1024.5 hPa (-1.7)43°F
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 48 mi33 min SSW 5.8 G 7.8 41°F 40°F1025 hPa40°F
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 49 mi59 min SSW 14 G 16 43°F 43°F3 ft1023.3 hPa

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA1 mi71 minSSW 49.00 miOvercast46°F43°F89%1024.8 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA15 mi71 minSSW 47.00 miOvercast43°F39°F89%1025 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA15 mi70 minSSW 510.00 miOvercast44°F44°F100%1024.8 hPa
Pawtucket, North Central State Airport, RI20 mi67 minVar 45.00 miFog/Mist43°F43°F100%1019.1 hPa
East Milton, MA22 mi67 minSSW 12 mi41°F41°F100%1025 hPa
Norwood, Norwood Memorial Airport, MA22 mi70 minS 58.00 miOvercast46°F43°F89%1024.6 hPa
Marshfield Airport, MA23 mi68 minSSW 85.00 miFog/Mist45°F44°F100%1024.4 hPa

Wind History from TAN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3S5S7S3S6S3CalmSE4SE3Calm4CalmSW4SW7
1 day agoCalmW3CalmW4CalmCalmCalmNW3CalmE3E5SE8E3E4E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmNW4NW5NW5NW7NW5W4NW3NW5NW6NW9
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NW5NW3NW7N5NW4CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Taunton, Taunton River, Massachusetts
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Taunton
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Sat -- 02:19 AM EST     2.23 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:49 AM EST     First Quarter
Sat -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:30 AM EST     0.57 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:21 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:37 PM EST     2.26 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:14 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:02 PM EST     0.39 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.92.22.21.91.51.10.80.60.60.81.11.41.82.22.22.11.71.20.80.50.40.50.8

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:09 AM EST     -0.02 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:54 AM EST     -3.73 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:49 AM EST     First Quarter
Sat -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:55 AM EST     0.16 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:46 AM EST     3.38 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 12:19 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:13 PM EST     -0.16 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:12 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:13 PM EST     -3.88 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 09:16 PM EST     0.17 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.73.32.61-2.4-3.4-3.7-3.4-2.40.72.53.23.43.12.51.1-2.2-3.4-3.9-3.7-2.9-1.42.23.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.