Sunday, May26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Whiting, IN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:19AMSunset 8:15PM Sunday May 26, 2019 2:26 AM CDT (07:26 UTC) Moonrise 1:44AMMoonset 12:19PM Illumination 52% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ779 Expires:201905260915;;465248 Fzus63 Kmkx 260159 Glflm Open Lake Forecast For Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/sullivan Wi 859 Pm Cdt Sat May 25 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan. Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10% Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered.
Synopsis.. Low pressure of 29.5 inches over eastern ontario, canada will continue into northern quebec tonight. Its trailing cold front will move south across lake michigan tonight bringing a shift to northerly winds. High pressure of 30.0 inches will then settle over lake michigan for Sunday and Sunday night. Modest easterly winds will then develop on Monday ahead of low pressure of 29.5 inches moving from the central great plains toward western wisconsin. Lmz080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-260915- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 859 pm cdt Sat may 25 2019 sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south...
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt veering to north 5 to 10 kt. Patchy fog. Slight chance of rain showers and Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Sunday..North winds 5 to 10 kt. Slight chance of rain showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then slight chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sunday night..North winds 5 to 10 kt becoming northeast. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Monday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming east 10 to 20 kt. Chance of rain showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Monday night..Southeast winds 15 to 25 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt. Rain showers and Thunderstorms likely in the evening, then chance of rain showers and Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Tuesday..South winds 10 to 20 kt. Chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Tuesday night..South winds 10 to 15 kt becoming east 10 to 20 kt. Rain showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Wednesday..South winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southwest. Chance of rain showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Thursday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming west. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
LMZ779


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Whiting, IN
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location: 41.9, -87.31     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 260443
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
1143 pm cdt Sat may 25 2019

Update
735 pm cdt
no major changes made to the forecast message on this quiet start
to a Saturday evening on our memorial day weekend. The timing of
thunderstorm arrival into the CWA remains mainly overnight for
much of the area, with the exception being north central illinois
where late evening (9 pm - 12 am) isolated thunderstorms may
occur.

Numerous thunderstorms, some supercellular and severe, have
developed near the iowa missouri border area early this evening,
with isolated showers and storms across eastern iowa. Much of this
activity is being assisted in developing by a strong mid to upper
level speed maximum as seen on water vapor imagery just to the
north. This exists in an analyzed high moisture plume, with 850 mb
dew points of 15c and precipitable waters near 1.5 inches. Large
mucape values of 2000-2500 j kg and deep layer shear (45+ kt) more
than adequate for organization, support the storms sustaining
themselves and additional growth to their east northeast within
the jet streak. Further north along the surface cold front,
located near dubuque to cedar rapids iowa, isolated thunderstorm
development is possible this evening although any deeper updrafts
have been struggling thus far. So our main upstream area of storms
is expected to be southeast iowa.

As the storms continue to increase and their east to east-
northeast movement, they will move into north central northeast
illinois and northwest indiana and peak in coverage overnight.

Confidence in coverage of thunderstorms diminishes north of i-80,
but there will likely be rain with embedded thunder there. The
most sustained activity, with at times west-to-east orientation
and multiple waves, will be favored south of i-80. The low-level
jet replenishing the storms is moderate in intensity, around 25
kt, and not predicted to increase much. This somewhat "in check"
moisture replenishment and limited storm motion offset is the
limiting flash flood potential into our cwa. However, this is
still something we will have to watch as through Sunday morning
one to two inch totals are certainly possible. As for the severe
threat, the high MUCAPE values do intersect the -10c to -30c range
in the forecast soundings, so some severe hail threat will
persist with any stronger updrafts and cannot rule out some
stronger winds in any congealed storms, again both of these more
favored along south of i-80.

Mtf

Short term
151 pm cdt
through Sunday...

destabilization has been slow today in wake of morning
precipitation and continued cloud cover, but dewpoints have risen
into the low to mid 60s. There is some modest instability though
mid level lapse rates are fairly weak, and we are in a bit of a
lull in forcing. There is some hi- res guidance painting a few
storms along the i-80 corridor as instability rebuilds in an axis
of weak lower level converegence, but confidence on this is
pretty low and vertical growth has been limited, thus it appears
most of the area will be dry this afternoon.

The better signal for precipitation storms will be after dark as
a more organized wave across the central southern plains makes
headway across the ridge and interacts with the slowly southward
shifting cold front. Initially the northward extension of any
activity will be limited closer to the better instability. These
will encounter a somewhat unstable environment aloft also. Pwats
will increase to near 1.8", such that heavy rainfall will be a
concern, and while storms will be moving, the upper flow will be
parallel to the front and would support periods of sustained
moderate to heavy rain along and south of i-80. Instability shear
parameter space is also supportive of stronger storms and SPC has
the area in a marginal risk for severe storms. Hail and locally
damaging winds would be the main severe concerns, with the greater
threat (though still marginal) south of the chicago area.

The cold front will bring a shift to northeast winds and a cooler
airmass for Sunday. Some showers will linger into the morning and
possibly some embedded thunderstorms, then expect some clearing
in the afternoon. Highs near the lakeshore will be considerably
cooler, with a modest cooling inland due to the northeast winds
and somewhat drier airmass.

Kmd

Long term
223 pm cdt
Sunday night through Saturday...

the start of the period, Sunday night, is appearing to be on the
drier side. Any activity remaining from the day should quickly
exit, with any upstream development to the west likely not
arriving until Monday morning. Monday morning will be the start of
another active period this next week across the region. Large
upper level low expected to move through the western CONUS on
Monday, with fairly active mid levels likely in place over the
central conus. Surface low trough expected to develop across the
plains and in this pattern, will see broad and strong southerly
flow setup across much of the region with a warm front expected to
lift north through the area. Mid level energy along with WAA and
strong LLJ will likely help showers and thunderstorms spread over
the area early Monday morning but with dry conditions then
expected by midday. Will need to monitor where this trough and
boundary setup Monday afternoon, as its possible these features
remain overhead later in the day Monday. If that were to occur,
then additional thunderstorms will be likely and these will have
the potential to be strong severe.

Once again, where the trough boundary setup will be key for
precip chances Monday night into Tuesday. It's possible that this
boundary lifts north with dry conditions then likely, however, if
it stays in place then periodic showers storms will be possible.

Still some lower confidence on this period setup. By Tuesday
afternoon, will need to turn attention to the west where
additional thunderstorm development is expected with approaching
upper level low and surface low. Setup for severe storms appearing
to be possible Tuesday afternoon to our west. Latest guidance is
showing this might stay to the west, with a slower eastward
progression with the upper level low. Given that guidance is
generally too quick with upper level lows, this latest guidance
seems reasonable. Even if the development were to develop to our
west, its possible that this upstream development shifts east into
northern il by Tuesday night. Will need to monitor this period
for additional strong severe storms. With a slower progression of
this system, thinking additional thunderstorms will be possible
across the CWA on Wednesday and have adjusted the forecast to
reflect this thinking.

Rodriguez

Aviation
For the 06z tafs...

some isold tsra north of the larger complex of shra tsra over
central il are expected to briefly affect the chicago area
terminals early in the 06z TAF cycle. Some potential for at least
ocnl shra continuing through the morning hours, though confidence
is lower in precip continuing after 10z. Wind shift to NE expect
early this morning with NE winds andVFR conditions expected
Sunday afternoon and evening.

- izzi

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

In... None.

Lm... None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 14 mi36 min W 8 G 8
CNII2 16 mi26 min WSW 4.1 G 7 73°F 62°F
JAKI2 16 mi146 min W 2.9 G 5.1 74°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 17 mi56 min SW 2.9 G 4.1 74°F 1013.8 hPa66°F
FSTI2 19 mi146 min SSW 5.1 74°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 20 mi46 min WSW 2.9 G 5.1 71°F 1014.6 hPa
45170 21 mi36 min SW 1.9 G 3.9 65°F 55°F1 ft62°F
45174 24 mi46 min WSW 3.9 G 3.9 1014.9 hPa
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 24 mi36 min S 2.9 G 2.9 72°F 65°F
45026 - St. Joseph, MI 37 mi36 min SSE 1.9 G 1.9 59°F 54°F1 ft1014.7 hPa54°F
45186 41 mi46 min W 3.9 G 5.8 60°F 51°F
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 42 mi106 min WSW 6 G 7 71°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 45 mi86 min SSW 6 G 8.9 66°F 1015.6 hPa (+0.7)
45187 48 mi46 min W 3.9 G 3.9 57°F 49°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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NE1
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NE1

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Gary Regional Airport, IN20 mi31 minWSW 410.00 miLight Rain73°F67°F85%1014.6 hPa

Wind History from GYY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6S7
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--SW6SW7SW10W12W20SW12SW12
G27
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G25
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W9SW7SW6SW7CalmCalmCalmCalmSW3
1 day agoE7E5N10N13NE7E5SE10SE6SE7SE7SE5E9S7S5S7SE5SE4SE4SE7SE6S5S4S6S7
2 days agoSW16
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W9W8W7CalmCalmNE4SE3NE6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.