Wednesday, September20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Whiting, IN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 6:51PM Wednesday September 20, 2017 2:36 AM CDT (07:36 UTC) Moonrise 6:51AMMoonset 7:24PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ779 Lake Michigan From Michigan City In To St. Joseph Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Port Washington To North Point Light Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From North Point Light To Wind Point Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wilmette Harbor Il To Michigan City In 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Whitehall To Pentwater Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Grand Haven To Whitehall Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Holland To Grand Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From South Haven To Holland Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From St. Joseph To South Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 821 Pm Cdt Tue Sep 19 2017 Sheboygan Wi To Pentwater Mi South...
Rest of tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southeast after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 25 kt in the early afternoon. Waves building to 3 to 5 ft.
Wednesday night..South winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southwest 10 to 15 kt overnight. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
Thursday..South winds 5 to 10 kt becoming southeast. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming south. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Friday night..South winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
LMZ779 Expires:201709200915;;641199 FZUS63 KLOT 200121 GLFLM OPEN LAKE FORECAST for Lake Michigan National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 821 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON Lake Michigan. Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. .SYNOPSIS...Weak high pressure of 30.0 inches across Lake Michigan will drift east tonight. Low pressure of 29.3 inches across the Canadian prairie provinces will gradually weaken through midweek with an associated trough of low pressure around 29.8 inches weakening as it approaches the lake late Wednesday night. High pressure around 30.1 inches will prevail across the central and eastern Great Lakes during the latter part of the week and into the weekend. LMZ080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-200915-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Whiting, IN
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location: 41.9, -87.31     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 200558
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
1258 am cdt Wed sep 20 2017

Update
940 pm cdt
not planning any changes to going forecast, though fog is looking
to be less of a concern than previously feared.

Dewpoints depressions remain mostly in the 2-5f range across the
area, versus near 0 dewpoint depressions last night over ia where
dense fog was widespread. East to southeast winds of 4-7kt
continue this evening and with gradient not expected to get any
looser, would anticipate some wind to continue (perhaps increase a
bit western cwa) through the night. Would expect the result to be
mostly MVFR vsbys with denser fog probably confined to SE cwa
(where winds are lighter) and the typically more fog prone
sheltered cold air drainage areas.

Also seeing some marine fog over the north shore areas already
this evening. It's unclear how significant of a problem this will
become with many coastal webcams showing unrestricted vsby.

Otherwise, going forecast in good shape an no update planned to
text products at this time.

- izzi

Short term
244 pm cdt
through Wednesday...

the main forecast concerns for the period are:
1.) the good threat for fog tonight into early Wednesday, some of
which may be dense.

2.) the very warm and humid conditions on Wednesday.

A moist airmass remains in place across the area this afternoon,
with many areas reporting surface dewpoints into the low to mid
60s. This is likely to set the stage for fog development across
much of northern illinois and northwestern indiana tonight as
skies clear and the surface winds abate. There was a large area of
dense fog this morning over western illinois and iowa within this
same airmass. With this in mind, I think that fog could become
dense again tonight over my area. In spite of this, I will not
issue any type of headline at this time. Instead, I plan to
allow the evening shift to get a better handle on the best areas
favored for dense fog development tonight. Any fog and associated
low clouds that develop tonight will likely linger into the early
to mid morning hours things improve with the passage of a surface
warm front.

Once this warm front passes over the area in the morning, expect a
much warmer summer-like airmass to shift northward into the area.

A lower level thermal ridge is expected to advect eastward over
the area in response to a potent storm system over south central
canada. With 925 mb temperatures progged to increase up around 25c
Wednesday afternoon, high temperatures are likely to climb into
the upper 80s in most locations. Combine this with unseasonably
high dewpoints in the upper 60s to around 70, and heat indices
are likely to top out into the lower to possibly mid 90s.

Some overnight convection also looks to develop tonight across
portions of northern iowa. While it appears this activity will
weaken, or even dissipate before it reaches illinois, there is a
very small possibility for an isolated showers making it into
north central illinois Wednesday morning. Otherwise, much of the
area will remain precipitation free until our next weather
disturbance approaches Wednesday night. See more on this in the
long term discussion.

Kjb

Long term
309 pm cdt
Wednesday night through Tuesday...

of note in the longer range forecast are thunderstorm chances
Wednesday night, mainly over north central illinois, and
unseasonable heat for latter september that could be impacting to
some groups given the late season nature.

Strong low pressure over the canadian prairie provinces will stall
Wednesday and its associated cold front will slowly inch toward
the area Wednesday evening, likely entering north central illinois
overnight but on a weakening trend. The air mass in advance as
noted above will be unseasonably warm and humid and as such will
be a source of instability. The early evening frontal location is
anticipated to be draped across wisconsin and the illinois iowa
border into missouri. With a southerly low-level jet forecast to
increase to around 30 kt in ambient high moisture (pwats around
1.80 inches), isolated to scattered storms are probable along the
front. With the upper jet maximum hanging back across the upper
plains, deep layer shear is only forecast to be around 25 kt. So
there may be limited organization, especially with storms into the
overnight hours. The MUCAPE values though look to be in excess of
2000 j kg within a plume along the immediate boundary, so that
along may support a few severe storms with a hail and wind threat
but these could be mainly a little west of the area toward
initiation, or inching just into north central illinois.

The slightly greater threat may be heavy rain given the slowing
speed of the boundary and ambient moisture. Just from last night's
rain we received a 3+" rainfall report in iroquois county with
convection in a similar air mass, so will be something to watch.

Dry antecedent conditions should help though.

Looking ahead to the warmth, the front will weaken and the warm
air mass will prevail through early next week. The 850mb
temperatures are forecast on Thursday to be around 20c, which is
the upper 1-3 percentile for the time of year. There is potential
for low clouds, maybe even fog, along the remnant boundary
Thursday morning across mainly north central illinois. That could
keep temperatures down from the otherwise upper 80s to low 90s
that the air mass would support. Continued high dew points in the
upper 60s to lower 70s would support mid 90s heat indices most
favored in southern locations and possibly into chicago, but the
further north the higher uncertainty on Thursday.

Confidence for sunshine on Friday into the weekend is higher and
upper 80s to possible low 90s look to continue. For those areas
that do not receive much rain Wednesday night, the dry ground may
help with sensible warming into the low 90s. Dew points will
likely drop a tad without the moist pre-frontal pull from
Wednesday Thursday, and presently forecast mid-upper 60s dew
points. Heat index values look to be noteworthy for this time of
year. The stretch of warmth this late in the season will be of
note, especially for any outdoor activities (e.G. High school
sports, etc).

Mtf

Aviation
For the 06z tafs...

gyy will be the most likely spot for dense fog tonight. Gyy
briefly dropped to 1 4sm, and expecting dense fog to return to gyy
early this morning. Other sites will likely report MVFR vsby
early this morning, and I have low confidence in lower vsby. Since
ord and mdw briefly dropped to MVFR, decided to keep ifr in the
tafs and adjust at 09z if needed. However, i'm thinking all three
sites will stay above ifr.

Vfr conditions are expected after the fog dissipates this morning,
and gusty southerly winds develop in the early aftn. MAX gusts
will be arnd 20 kt.

Convection fires along a cold front across wi and ia this
afternoon. Rfd has the best chance in reporting shra and tsra. I
think the line of storms will quickly dissipate as they encounter
more stable air across northern il this evening. Therefore, the
only TAF with precip is rfd with shra and a tempo for tsra. The
window of tsra should be short, but I have low timing in exact
precip time of arrival. Guidance members very with how quickly the
convection will advance.

Jee

Marine
315 pm cdt
fairly quiet weather over the lake with an approaching cold front
midweek stalling to the west. Ahead of this front there will be a
southerly wind with 20-25 kt gusts probable over mid lake on
Wednesday. Otherwise, conditions look mainly rain-free over the
lake with little impacts from winds.

Mtf

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

In... Dense fog advisory... Inz001-inz002-inz011 until 9 am Wednesday.

Lm... None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 14 mi66 min SSE 8 G 8.9 69°F 67°F
JAKI2 16 mi96 min SSW 1.9 68°F
OKSI2 17 mi96 min ESE 2.9 69°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 17 mi48 min SSE 4.1 G 5.1 1012.3 hPa
FSTI2 19 mi96 min S 2.9 67°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 20 mi34 min SE 4.1 G 8.9 67°F 1013.2 hPa
45170 21 mi36 min SSE 5.8 G 5.8 66°F 69°F1 ft65°F
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 24 mi46 min SE 6 G 8 64°F 64°F
45174 24 mi26 min SSE 7.8 G 9.7 69°F 69°F1 ft67°F
45026 - St. Joseph, MI 37 mi26 min SSE 3.9 G 5.8 66°F 69°F1012.9 hPa63°F
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 42 mi56 min S 7 G 8.9 68°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 45 mi36 min Calm G 1 64°F 1013.9 hPa (-1.0)

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Gary Regional Airport, IN20 mi61 minN 03.00 miFog/Mist61°F59°F97%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from GYY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE6NE6NE4N8N9NE6NE105E43CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3
1 day agoNE6NE5NE6NE7NE7NE8NE7NE9NE6--NE6NE6NE9NE5NE6NE5NE9NE4NE9NE7NE6N4CalmCalm
2 days agoSE7S3S6S6S5S5SW8SW6SW7SW6SW8N8Calm3SE4CalmNE7NE9NE3N8N11
G17
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.