Sunrise 5:52 AM   Sunset 7:44 PM Moonrise 9:56 PM   Moonset 6:27 AM

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LMZ779 Expires:202404252130;;349703 Fzus63 Kmkx 251347 Glflm
open lake forecast for lake michigan national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi 847 am cdt Thu apr 25 2024
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan.
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
Synopsis -
light winds generally from the southeast will prevail over lake michigan today as high pressure around 30.1 inches gradually shifts to the east of the region. Southeast winds will begin to increase tonight.
low pressure of 29.2 inches will develop across the central plains on Friday and move northeast into lake superior on Saturday, leading to increasing southeast winds Friday into Friday night. Winds shift to south on Saturday. Some gales are possible at times Friday night into Saturday. Showers and Thunderstorms are expected at times across the region late Friday into Saturday night.
another low pressure system around 29.5 inches will move northeast across the great lakes region Sunday into Monday, which will again bring gusty south winds across lake michigan. Showers and Thunderstorms are expected at times once again during this period.
lmz080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-252130- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 847 am cdt Thu apr 25 2024
sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south - .
Rest of today - Southeast winds 5 to 10 kt becoming northeast. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Tonight - Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming east late in the evening, then becoming southeast 10 to 20 kt after midnight increasing to 15 to 25 kt late. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 2 to 4 ft. Friday - Southeast winds 15 to 25 kt. Chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft. Friday night - Southeast winds to 30 kt becoming south. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft. Saturday - South winds to 30 kt increasing to gales to 35 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 7 to 10 ft occasionally to 13 ft. Saturday night - South winds to 30 kt increasing to gales to 35 kt. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 7 to 10 ft occasionally to 13 ft. Sunday - South winds to 30 kt. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft. Monday - South winds to 30 kt becoming southwest 15 to 25 kt. Showers likely. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.

LMZ700
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FXUS63 KLOT 251723 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 1223 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Periods of showers and thunderstorms expected starting Friday and continuing at times through the weekend, with some threat for severe weather, particularly later in the weekend. Locally heavy rainfall possible as well.

- Gusty southerly winds to 40 mph Saturday and Sunday.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 224 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Through Friday:

After a cool start, temperatures will jump a few degrees compared to Wednesday as high pressure begins to depart to the north and east. A lake breeze will push inland towards midday resulting in lake cooling with high temperatures for lakeside communities only in the upper 40s to near 50 degrees. Tonight, temperatures will fall into the upper 30s and lower 40s, with a smattering of mid 30s possible in the typical cool spots. Increasing low-level warm advection and 5 to 10 mph surface winds will likely preclude much of a frost threat.

Friday will be a transition day towards a more active period of weather heading into the weekend. A tightening pressure gradient will drive increasing southeasterly breezes through the morning and afternoon. Eventually, shower and thunderstorm chances will also increase, particularly during the afternoon, as a lead impulse drives a more notable increase in warm advection overhead although the severe threat during this period appears low.

Carlaw

Friday Night through Wednesday:

Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Friday evening across much of the area and will be ending early Saturday morning, from west to east. A warm front will be lifting north across the area Friday night, shifting winds to the south/southwest and they may gust into the 30-35 mph range.
This will likely allow temps to level off in the upper 50s to around 60 in the evening and then possibly slowly rise into the lower 60s during the overnight hours.

As the first surface low lifts north across the upper Great Lakes on Saturday, there remains little focus for new thunderstorm development during much of the daylight hours on Saturday. There could be some lingering precipitation in the east Saturday morning and perhaps an isolated storm across far northwest IL along a cold front by evening. Lowered pops to low chance for most of the area. Southerly winds may gust as high as 40 mph on Saturday and with the expected lack of precip and warming temps prior to sunrise, highs should easily reach upper 70s for most areas and lower 80s are looking possible.

A second area of low pressure will move from the Plains Sunday to the upper Great Lakes Monday along the cold front noted above left behind from the first system. Convection is expected to develop northeast of this second low and along the cold front Saturday night. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty for where exactly this will occur and how far into the cwa it may move or develop. Nevertheless, increasing pops Saturday evening through Sunday morning look reasonable, especially for the northwest half of the cwa. There would be some severe potential during this time as well as the potential for heavy rain.

Precip trends for Sunday become fairly uncertain and likely dependent on what does or does not occur Saturday night. While there will likely be some dry periods Sunday into Sunday night, difficult to make any changes to the higher blended pops. There will be a continued threat of severe weather and heavy rain on Sunday, perhaps a better chance with any convection Sunday afternoon. Assuming there is some dry hours and some sunshine, highs on Sunday may be similar to Saturday, in the upper 70s with 80 possible.

The slower evolution/movement of the second system has continued, resulting in the cold front not moving across the local area until Monday afternoon with a continued chance for showers/scattered thunderstorms on Monday, mainly across the eastern half of the area. Confidence is fairly low for how convective trends will evolve on Monday. cms

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

VFR conditions and easterly winds expected through the forecast period. Lake influence will likely cause winds to back northeasterly this afternoon at ORD, MDW, and GYY, before settling back east to east-southeast tonight. East-southeasterly winds will increase Friday morning and likely become gusty.
Some high based, mostly light, showers are expected toward the end of the RFD 24 TAF and during the final few hours of the 30 hour ORD and MDW TAFs.

- Izzi

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...None.

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