Saturday, November18, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Whiting, IN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 4:28PM Saturday November 18, 2017 5:49 AM CST (11:49 UTC) Moonrise 7:36AMMoonset 6:01PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ779 Lake Michigan From Michigan City In To St. Joseph Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Port Washington To North Point Light Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From North Point Light To Wind Point Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wilmette Harbor Il To Michigan City In 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Whitehall To Pentwater Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Grand Haven To Whitehall Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Holland To Grand Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From South Haven To Holland Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From St. Joseph To South Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 241 Am Cst Sat Nov 18 2017 Sheboygan Wi To Pentwater Mi South...
.gale warning in effect from 9 am cst this morning through late tonight...
Today..North winds to 30 kt increasing to gales to 45 kt by late this morning. Rain this morning...then chance of rain this afternoon. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft building to 12 to 16 ft occasionally to 21 ft.
Tonight..Northwest gales to 40 kt diminishing to gales to 35 kt. Chance of rain and snow in the evening...then a chance of snow overnight. Waves 12 to 16 ft occasionally to 21 ft subsiding to 8 to 12 ft occasionally to 16 ft.
Sunday..Northwest winds to 30 kt becoming west. Waves 8 to 11 ft occasionally to 14 ft subsiding to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Sunday night..West winds to 30 kt. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Monday..Southwest winds to 30 kt increasing to gales to 35 kt. Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft.
Monday night..Southwest gales to 40 kt. Waves 8 to 12 ft occasionally to 16 ft.
Tuesday..West gales to 35 kt becoming northwest to 30 kt. Waves 8 to 11 ft occasionally to 14 ft subsiding to 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming west. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
LMZ779 Expires:201711181500;;583931 FZUS63 KLOT 180841 GLFLM OPEN LAKE FORECAST for Lake Michigan National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 241 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON Lake Michigan. Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure of 29.4 inches over eastern Kansas will move to northern Indiana by late this morning...while deepening to around 29.2 inches. The low will lift into Quebec Sunday further deepening to 28.8 inches. High pressure of 30.3 inches will build across the central and southern Great Plains Sunday and shift to the southeastern U.S. by Monday. Low pressure of 29.2 inches will move from southern Saskatchewan early Monday to Quebec late Tuesday. Broad high pressure of 30.3 inches will build across the central and northern Great Plains Wednesday and shift across the Mississippi Valley Friday. LMZ080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-181500-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Whiting, IN
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location: 41.9, -87.31     debug

Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 180956
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
356 am cst Sat nov 18 2017

Short term
345 am cst
deepening low pressure system moving through the region today,
presenting plenty of near term forecast concerns. Precip trends,
including morning thunderstorms and midday afternoon rain wet snow
mix, falling temps and very windy conditions all the main foci
for the next 12-18 hours. Lake shore flood advisory will be issued
for indiana shore of lake michigan for this afternoon and
tonight, due to strong north winds producing large waves leading
to potential flooding and beach erosion.

Surface low pressure along the ks mo border early this morning,
will deepen in response to strong mid-level height falls
associated with a strengthening upper trough which will propagate
across the region today. The low is progged to lift quickly
northeast across central il and into northern in by midday, and to
lake erie by early this evening. Strong forcing, including
isentropic ascent of warm moist air atop strengthening surface
stationary warm frontal trough in advance of the low and enhanced
by upper divergence in left exit region of 140+ knot upper jet
streak, is expected to result in rain expanding across the area
again early this morning. Current radar and lightning detection
depicts thunderstorms occurring across the southern tier or so of
cwa counties where rap mesoanalysis indicated 500+ j kg of mucape
along and south of the stationary frontal zone. Thunderstorm
potential is expected to persist across these southern counties
this morning, before instability is shunted off to the east of the
area with the passage of the surface low late this morning.

Locations south of a pontiac-kankakee-rensselaer line may see
1-1.50 inch rain amounts from this convection.

Various model guidance depicts deformation zone precipitation
lingering across the forecast area into this afternoon in
association with the elevated baroclinic zone north of the surface
front and low track, with cooling of the thermal column expected
as northerly winds increase and pull colder air in behind the
deepening low. Morning temperatures in the low 40's to mid 50's
north to south will fall into the mid-upper 30's across most of
the area by afternoon, with forecast soundings supporting a
mix change to some wet snow especially across northern il portions
of the CWA during the late morning and afternoon. Ground air
temps are expected to remain mild enough, with surface wet-bulb
temps in the mid 30's such that little if any accumulation is
expected, perhaps a slushy tenth or two on some grassy surfaces
where precip is briefly intense enough. Precip will taper off and
end from west to east this afternoon into early this evening.

The other notable weather concern will be the development of very
windy conditions by late morning midday, as northerly winds
increase to 20-30 mph with gusts to 40-45 mph in the wake of the
deepening low. Not only will these winds make for uncomfortable
wind chills in the 20's, but they will also result in large waves
building on southern lake michigan, which will likely cause lake
shore flooding issues along the south (indiana) shore this
afternoon into tonight. Based on this, a lakeshore flood advisory
for lake and porter counties from noon today through 3 am cst
Sunday morning.


Long term
346 am cst
Sunday through Friday...

dry weather is expected through much of the coming week, with
variable temperatures as a series of upper troughs and surface low
pressure systems move through the northern lakes.

High pressure builds from the plains through the ohio valley and
gulf coast states Sunday into Monday, in the wake of Saturday's
deep low pressure system. This results initially in a chilly day
Sunday, with winds still somewhat blustery early as the center of
the high passes south of the area. Winds turn southwesterly Monday
however, as an area of low pressure moves across southern canada
and passes north of the lakes Tuesday. This brings temps back into
the 40's across the CWA Monday-Tuesday, before a cold front trails
across the region later in the day Tuesday. Colder but dry
conditions then develop mid-week as high pressure builds back into
the area from the west.

Moderation is then expected again by the end of the week, with
precipitation chances slowly increasing into the weekend, as
models develop an upper trough across the great lakes and midwest
region. Nighttime temps in the mid-30's and daytime temps in the
40's would suggest any precip by Friday and Saturday would be mainly
in the form of rain.


For the 06z tafs...

there are multiple aviation concerns through Saturday. The
overnight early Saturday morning hours will be characterized by
drizzle and occasional light rain. CIGS and vsby will continue to
trend downward as low pressure approaches and winds diminish.

Concern continues for fog potential overnight, with highest
confidence at dpa and rfd where temporary 1 2sm vsby was
maintained. Increasing north winds by or a bit after daybreak
today should end the fog threat. Expecting CIGS to drop to lifr
area wide over the next few hours, with some uncertainty on
improvement time on Saturday, likely mid day or thereabouts.

Additional tsra development this morning through mid day should
stay south of the terminals. However, an area of steady rain will
develop and move into the area on the northwest side of
strengthening low pressure during mid morning. Periods of low MVFR
to ifr vsby are likely with the rain. As this occurs, northerly
winds will increase with gusts in the 25-30 kt range, and 30-35 kt
range at gyy. Colder air moving in could potentially allow snow
to mix in, with a changeover to snow possible before the precip
ends, but confidence is low. Confidence is also low-medium on
exact precip end time. Only maintained prob30 for ra sn at rfd.

Will need to monitor trends for this at the other terminals.

North-northwest to northwest winds will stay strong and gusty
through Saturday evening, with gusts likely to 30 kt or even
higher at times, especially at gyy. CIGS are expected to remain
in MVFR range, possibly improving sometime by early Sunday.


150 am... A cold front will move south across lake michigan early
this morning shifting winds northerly. The gradient will quickly
tighten as low pressure moves from missouri this morning to near
lake erie this evening. These northerly winds will increase to
gales by late morning with 45kts likely on the south end of the
lake this afternoon. The gales will slowly diminish from north to
south late tonight into early Sunday morning. A large area of high
pressure will move across the southern u.S. Sunday into Monday.

As it passes south of the lake... Northwesterly winds Sunday
morning will shift southwesterly Sunday night. Low pressure will
move across ontario Monday night and the gradient will tighten
ahead of this low with a period of southwesterly gales expected
late Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. A trailing cold
front will move across the lake Tuesday afternoon and then large
high pressure will move across the region next Wednesday. Cms

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

In... Lakeshore flood advisory... Inz001-inz002... Noon Saturday to 3 am

Lm... Gale warning... Lmz740-lmz741-lmz742-lmz743-lmz744-lmz745-lmz777-
lmz779... 9 am Saturday to 6 am Sunday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 14 mi50 min N 8.9 G 8.9 46°F 46°F
CNII2 16 mi35 min NNW 5.1 G 6 45°F 44°F
JAKI2 16 mi110 min N 2.9 46°F
OKSI2 17 mi110 min N 4.1 46°F
FSTI2 19 mi110 min N 13 44°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 20 mi50 min Calm G 0 47°F 999.3 hPa (-2.4)
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 24 mi50 min SE 5.1 G 6 44°F 44°F
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 42 mi70 min N 13 G 15 42°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 45 mi50 min SSE 4.1 G 6 45°F 1000.3 hPa (-2.1)

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Gary Regional Airport, IN20 mi65 minSE 41.50 miFog/Mist48°F48°F100%999 hPa

Wind History from GYY (wind in knots)
Last 24hrS4SE12S16SE7
1 day agoW11NW12NW10NW10NW10NW8NW8NW7
2 days agoS10S10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.