Thursday, February22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Monroe, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 6:17PM Thursday February 22, 2018 5:34 AM EST (10:34 UTC) Moonrise 11:10AMMoonset 12:23AM Illumination 46% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ444 Michigan Waters Of Lake Erie From Detroit River To North Cape Mi- 1002 Pm Edt Sat Jul 22 2017
Rest of tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the north early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Light and variable winds. Mostly cloudy early in the morning...then partly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the west in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening...then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late evening and early morning. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less. SEe lake erie open lake forecast for days 3 through 5. The water temperature at belle isle is 77.4 degrees.
LEZ444 Expires:201707230900;;677433 FZUS63 KDTX 230203 GLFSC GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1001 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A broad area of low pressure...29.70 inches...will slowly track across Lower Michigan through Sunday. The system will exit to the east Sunday night, pulling a cold front through the central Great Lakes late Sunday and Sunday night. High pressure...30.20 inches...then builds into the area Monday and Tuesday. LEZ444-230900-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Monroe, MI
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location: 41.91, -83.39     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 220828
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
328 am est Thu feb 22 2018

Discussion
Strong surface high has spread across the great lakes while the very
active frontal boundary remains south of the area draped across the
southern ohio valley. This will lead to mostly dry conditions today
as we mainly deal with cirrus debris from activity to our south. On
that note, the possible exception to the dry forecast would be
locations south of i94 which could see a period of light snow or
flurries this morning as a wave rides along the front through oh.

Current regional radar mosaic lines up well with hires models in
terms of the sharp northern edge to the precip shield and keeping it
just south of the state line. This adds confidence to limiting pops
to our southern most zones at the moment. There is a brief window
from about 10-15z when the wave itself passes to the south where
there is a northern extension to the precip shield on radar. This
could clip lenawee and monroe counties thus they have been left with
a chance pop for light snow. Not expecting much in the way of
accumulations as QPF is limited to a couple hundreths and dry
northeasterly flow will help keep most of the precip as virga
anyway.

The dry stretch won't last long as the next mild level wave and
associated surface low will lift through the northern great lakes
Friday. A trough occluded front draped south will connect it to a
second wave which will be riding up along the main front still
draped to our south. The strong surface high will be moving off to
the east Thursday night while still keeping a hold over SE mi with
dry easterly flow. Soundings show a mid level dry layer slowly
saturating after midnight Thursday from the top down as elevated
portion of the warm front lift through southern mi. Surface air will
be just below freezing which adds a layer of complexity to the
forecast with ptype. Model soundings continue to advertise a period
of potential freezing drizzle rain or sleet from about 06-14z Friday
morning until stronger warm air advection with southerly flow warms
the low levels enough to result in all rain. Precip could very well
hold off til even 09-12z as dry air could chew up much of the light
qpf on the lead edge. Better chances for precip will occur from 12-
18z as a ribbon of enhance theta-e and fgen along the occluded front
lift through southern mi. Less than a quarter inch of QPF is
expected from this system which should not affect any lingering
flooding issues. Deep layer of dry air from about 900-400mb will
then surge into the area for the afternoon as high pressure begins
building back into the region.

Active pattern continues heading into the weekend as yet another
northern and southern stream wave combo will lift into the region
starting early Saturday. This system looks a bit stronger than
Friday mornings system with a longer duration of isentropic forcing
on the lead edge of the system, resulting in a bit more qpf.

Southern locations will see rain most of the day Saturday as the
front lifts slowly north. Locations north of i69 could stay dry til
evening. The low will lift northwest of the area Saturday night
spreading rain across all of SE mi. Drier air will then work back in
on Sunday. Currently we are expecting around a quarter to half inch
of QPF from this system. Should be noted that we could see a brief
period of mixed precip at the lead edge as surface temps hover
around the freezing mark and saturation first occurs aloft where
temps look to be cooler than -10c.

Heading into the new week upper levels will flatten out with a
surface ridge spreading back across the region. So looks like we may
find a 2 or 3 day stretch without rain. Temps will hover around the
mid 40s with the westerly flow.

Marine
A broad region of high pressure will build across the northern great
lakes today. This will maintain dry conditions over all marine areas
except possibly some light snow or flurries over western lake erie.

This high will also maintain light wind over the north half of lake
huron and northeast winds generally less than 20 knots over southern
marine areas. Wind will then veer to the south by Friday as the next
low pressure system moves into the western great lakes. This system
will bring a generous coverage of mixed precipitation to the region
which will change to rain as mild air lifts north in region. This
mild air will then be swept east by the associated cold front as
moderate northwest winds develop Friday night. High pressure will
move in briefly on Saturday before a stronger low pressure system
arrives Sunday.

Hydrology
Run-off from recent heavy rain and melted snow will continue to feed
creeks, streams and rivers. Flood warnings will remain in effect for
most of the primary river basins over southeast michigan. Additional
mixed precipitation and rain on Friday is not expected to contribute
to additional flooding or prolong existing flooding as amounts will
remain generally one quarter of an inch or less. Another round of
rain will then impact the area late Saturday into Saturday night
with perhaps one half of an inch of rainfall falling in some areas.

This may impact river and stream levels to some degree, but should
not exacerbate flooding to any great degree.

Prev discussion
Issued at 1110 pm est Wed feb 21 2018
aviation...

surface anticyclone building across the northern great lakes will
allow low level flow trajectories to become increasingly more
easterly tonight. Lower level dry air advection will continue to
dissipate lower boundary layer MVFR cloud overnight, also getting
additional support with thickening mid cloud aloft. Long period of
vfr conditions right into tomorrow for most of the TAF sites. Will
be watching for potential of light precipitation to lift northward
across the ohio border, into michigan between 10-14z. Hrrr and
regional gem are the most bullish bringing light precipitation just
south of dtw, while the NAM is much farther south. Looking through
thermal fields suggests that any forcing that could bring
precipitation will be very high in column upwards of 10-12kft agl, as
low level dry air feed will hold strong. Preference is to continue a
dry forecast with virga likely overspreading the terminal. It
appears that for precipitation to occur its going to take a greater
northward displacement than the consensus. Also, high confidence that
precipitation type will be snow due to wet bulbing effects. To
reiterate, a dry forecast will be in the detroit tafs.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 feet or less right at start of the taf
period. Low tonight.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Discussion... Drk
marine... ... .Dg
hydrology... .Dg
aviation... ..Cb
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 12 mi44 min NE 13 G 15 31°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 16 mi46 min ENE 8.9 G 13 32°F 1035.1 hPa27°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 35 mi34 min NE 8.9 G 12 32°F 1036 hPa
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 43 mi46 min NE 17 G 21 32°F 1035 hPa26°F
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 47 mi34 min NE 13 G 15 29°F 1036.2 hPa

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Last
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NW14
G23
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G15
NW9
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NE4
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NE6
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SW12
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ago
S4
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Monroe, Custer Airport, MI3 mi38 minENE 1010.00 miOvercast31°F24°F79%1035.2 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI18 mi39 minENE 810.00 miOvercast30°F25°F83%1035.6 hPa
Lambertville, Toledo Suburban Airport, MI19 mi39 minE 6 G 1410.00 miOvercast31°F26°F83%1034.9 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI22 mi41 minNE 149.00 miOvercast31°F24°F76%1036.2 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI23 mi41 minENE 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy32°F26°F79%1035.8 hPa

Wind History from TTF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW14
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N5NW7NW8NW6NW7N7N5NE5SE6SE5E4E4E5CalmCalmNE8CalmNE9NE9NE6
G14
E8
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1 day agoSW10
G19
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G24
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S6S6SE6SE7S9S7SW15
G25
W3CalmCalmCalmCalmN4W4NW11
G16
2 days agoSE3SE3CalmS4S4S5S5S9S10S11
G16
SW12
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SW10SW10
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SW7SW5S4S5S3SW7
G14
SW6SW11
G15

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.