Tuesday, May23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Monroe, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:03AMSunset 8:57PM Tuesday May 23, 2017 8:31 PM EDT (00:31 UTC) Moonrise 3:55AMMoonset 5:21PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ444 Michigan Waters Of Lake Erie From Detroit River To North Cape Mi- 357 Pm Edt Tue May 23 2017
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers early in the morning. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers in the morning... Then showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots in the late evening and early morning...then diminishing to 15 to 20 knots early in the morning. Showers and a chance of Thunderstorms until early morning...then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet. A small craft advisory may be needed.
Thursday..East winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots. Cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves around 2 feet or less. SEe lake erie open lake forecast for days 3 through 5. The water temperature at belle isle is 59.4 degrees.
LEZ444 Expires:201705240330;;093184 FZUS53 KDTX 231957 NSHDTX NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST FOR MICHIGAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 357 PM EDT TUE MAY 23 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE WAVES ARE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT - THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. OCCASIONAL WAVE HEIGHT IS THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/10 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. LEZ444-240330-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Monroe, MI
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location: 41.91, -83.39     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 232322
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
722 pm edt Tue may 23 2017

Aviation
Dry low levels largely limiting diminishing showers to nothing more
than brief unrestricted -ra. Showers will lift north of the ptk-mbs
corridor by 02 or 03z. Weakening gradient overnight will favor
variable winds at times, eventually turning uniformly NE late. Any
cigs below 5kft will diminish with the loss of diurnal heating, the
only possible exception being the mbs vicinity where stratus may
intrude off of lake huron based on latest forecast soundings.

Guarded against this potential with a sct007 mention early wed
morning. Increasing deformation and weak elevated instability will
bring a chc of showers to the detroit area as early as Wed morning,
best chance holding off until the end of the forecast period. Tstorm
potential to low to include in the forecast attm.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for cig AOB 5kft
* low for tstorms to impact kdtw airspace

Prev discussion
Issued at 350 pm edt Tue may 23 2017
discussion...

the mid week period will be best described as unsettled due to a
large low pressure system over the midwest moving into and lingering
over the southern great lakes through Thursday. The abundance of
clouds and showers will also keep temperatures in check, especially
Wednesday night into Thursday as stronger northeast wind develops
over the region. Expect readings to average in the 60s to around 70
each day, a few degrees below the normal values that are in the
lower 70s for this point in late may.

Today's late afternoon activity continues to be driven mainly by
broad and weak lift within the entrance region of the upper jet max
over the great lakes. This forcing is getting a boost by instability
due to daytime heating both of which are acting on the low level
theta-e ridge within the warm sector of the low pressure system. The
resulting convection is an ordinary pulse mode given the low cape
and weak wind field low shear environment. Afternoon mesoanalysis
leading to press time has shown 100 mb ml CAPE under 500 j kg and
mu sfc CAPE under 1000 j kg, just enough for some lightning strikes
before diminishing during the evening.

The afternoon and evening showers storms will be followed by a break
for much of the late evening and overnight hours before the chance
of showers and elevated storms returns toward sunrise. The break in
the action will develop as the current upper jet segment exits
northward and as deep southwest flow backs toward the southeast
ahead of the primary upper trough. The backed flow will initially
draw in some dry air from the ohio valley before the low pressure
system renews moisture transport from both the gulf and atlantic
coasts. This will fuel some elevated instability through Wednesday
morning based on 850 mb LI running from 0 to -2c which high
resolution models show converted to surfaced based CAPE early in the
diurnal cycle. The day 2 convective outlook appears to also include
the appropriate shadow in the lee of easterly flow off lake huron.

Thunderstorm coverage will be on the scattered side while showers
associated with the steady moderate theta-e advection will be
numerous to widespread while spreading from the ohio border
northward through the day.

The incoming stream of both gulf and atlantic moisture will set up
the wettest period of this event from late Wednesday through
Wednesday night. There is reasonable model agreement with the slow
evolution of the low pressure system over the ohio valley during
this time while the system deepens to about 995 mb. This is shown to
form a strong occlusion trowal over lower michigan Wednesday night
that will be an efficient rainfall producer. Model solutions also
show the occlusion progressing steadily across the region as a
better defined dry slot pushes in from the south. This is reflected
in some more reasonable model QPF that is generally less than 1 inch
for the 24 hours ending Thursday morning.

Pop chances remain low throughout Friday as upper-level ridging sets
up across the great lakes, although a few embedded shortwaves could
provide the slight chance for a brief shower. The biggest change for
the weekend thus far is the pop chances Saturday morning into the
afternoon. Both the gem and ECMWF 12z model suites are starting to
converge on a weak surface low that's poised to push from northern mo
into the ohio valley Friday into Saturday. During prior runs, the
low kept most to all precipitation just south of michigan, however, a
more northerly track now brings precipitation chances to southern
lower michigan. The GFS is a little slower with the surface low and
pushes it across southern michigan late Saturday into Sunday, but
would not be too surprised to see it play catch-up with the ECMWF and
gem run within the next day.

Continued rain chances will exist Sunday into early next week an
upper-level cut-off low moves in from north dakota into the great
lakes late Saturday into Tuesday. This will act to produce on and
off rain showers with mostly cloudy conditions. Thunderstorm chances
remain low during this time, however, did put thunder in the
forecast throughout Sunday as a weak cold front pushes through.

Otherwise, daytime high temperatures are expected to consistently
peak in the 70s through the weekend and into early next week.

Marine...

a large area of low pressure over the midwest will evolve into the
southern great lakes through mid week. This will keep marine
conditions unsettled from a weather standpoint as a steady increase
in northeast wind builds an onshore waves pattern through Thursday.

The forecast maintains moderate speed, generally under 20 knots, as
thermal profiles appear very stable over lake huron while saginaw
bay and western lake erie will behave much like the surrounding land
area. This long fetch of moderate onshore flow and lower stability
over nearshore areas could result in waves exceeding small craft
advisory threshold late Wednesday, Wednesday night, and Thursday.

The low pressure system will then begin an eastward exit by Friday
which will produce backing and weakening flow heading into the
weekend.

Hydrology...

low pressure developing over the ohio valley Wednesday will lift
north to over southeast michigan Wednesday night then stall for a
while before slowly moving east by Thursday night. Periods of
showers and thunderstorms from Wednesday through Thursday will
produce rainfall averages around a half inch across the saginaw
valley and thumb to near an inch towards the ohio border. There may
be locally higher amounts in areas that experience thunderstorms.

Ponding of water on area roads and in other prone areas is likely,
especially considering the widespread activity over the weekend that
left the ground saturated in most areas.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Jvc
discussion... Bt am
marine... ... .Bt
hydrology... .Drc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 12 mi51 min E 13 G 13 63°F
45165 16 mi31 min E 7.8 G 9.7 64°F 63°F1 ft53°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 16 mi55 min E 7 G 13 1006.4 hPa
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 35 mi31 min ENE 8 G 11 62°F 1006.1 hPa (-0.6)
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 43 mi49 min ENE 6 G 9.9 60°F 1006.9 hPa54°F
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 47 mi31 min ENE 6 G 7 64°F 1007.1 hPa (-1.0)

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Last
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E13
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N3
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Monroe, Custer Airport, MI3 mi57 minN 010.00 miFair67°F48°F50%1006.1 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI18 mi38 minNE 310.00 miFair68°F50°F53%1005.8 hPa
Lambertville, Toledo Suburban Airport, MI19 mi37 minE 410.00 miFair66°F48°F54%1006.1 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI22 mi38 minNNW 810.00 miOvercast67°F51°F57%1006.3 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI23 mi38 minNNW 810.00 miPartly Cloudy65°F54°F68%1006.3 hPa

Wind History from TTF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6SW4SW3S3S3S3S3S3S4S4S3CalmS4SW6W4W3SW6SE8SE3E7E5E7E5NE4
1 day agoW11
G16
W8W9
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W8W8SW8SW3SW9SW11
G17
W10W10
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SW8SW11W12
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SW13W15W13
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2 days agoE11
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SW5N5N3CalmE4CalmCalmSE6S5S6S10S9
G14
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G23
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G25
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.