Thursday, April26, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Monroe, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:33AMSunset 8:28PM Thursday April 26, 2018 1:57 AM EDT (05:57 UTC) Moonrise 3:56PMMoonset 4:11AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ444 Michigan Waters Of Lake Erie From Detroit River To North Cape Mi- 1002 Pm Edt Sat Jul 22 2017
Rest of tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the north early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Light and variable winds. Mostly cloudy early in the morning...then partly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the west in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening...then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late evening and early morning. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less. SEe lake erie open lake forecast for days 3 through 5. The water temperature at belle isle is 77.4 degrees.
LEZ444 Expires:201707230900;;229447 FZUS63 KDTX 230203 GLFSC GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1001 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A broad area of low pressure...29.70 inches...will slowly track across Lower Michigan through Sunday. The system will exit to the east Sunday night, pulling a cold front through the central Great Lakes late Sunday and Sunday night. High pressure...30.20 inches...then builds into the area Monday and Tuesday. LEZ444-230900-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Monroe, MI
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location: 41.91, -83.39     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 260350
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1150 pm edt Wed apr 25 2018

Aviation
Increasing stability under cool and gradually drying northerly flow
will minimize the potential for additional cloud cover going forward
overnight. The existence of clear skies and a generally weak
gradient will provide a brief window for shallow fog development mid
morning 10z-12z . High pressure now anchored over the midwest will
then build into the region on Thursday. This will maintain a dry and
stable environment, supporting clear skies and modest west to
southwest winds through the day.

For dtw... Noting some increase in cloud coverage just to the south,
as cold easterly flow lifts lake erie moisture inland. This will
provide at least a low probability for some lower stratus to creep
back in overnight. Very low confidence for occurrence. Any low cloud
would quickly mix out by late morning.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* very low for ceiling 5000 ft or less overnight.

Prev discussion
Issued at 321 pm edt Wed apr 25 2018
discussion...

partial clearing across the southern metro region have allowed
temperatures to overachieve this afternoon as temperatures have
climbed into the lower 60s. Northerly flow off of lake huron have
kept temperatures capped in the 40s across the thumb, while more
moderate temperatures have been observed from pontiac up to saginaw,
with highs in the 50s. Communities in the thumb, especially closer
to the shoreline, will have a slight chance to see brief showers
through the evening as a PV anomaly resides across central lake
huron. Cloud cover associated with this eastward moving PV anomaly
and diurnal heating will begin to diminish tonight and overnight as
incoming subsidence and dry air settles in across SE mi. Winds
gusting between 15 - 20 mph, isolated 25 mph, will also quickly
diminish tonight after diurnal mixing ceases after sunset. The cut-
off low and associated PV anomaly will push over new york by
Thursday 12z and will continue to reinforce NW flow across michigan,
allowing 850 mb temperatures to drop to an average of 1c overnight.

Clear skies will allow for strong radiational cooling overnight,
supporting lows in the lower 30s across SE mi and mid-30s across the
urban metro region. A very slight chance for periods of patchy fog
to develop overnight across the thumb, as winds diminish and dry air
moves in aloft, however, opted to leave patchy fog out of the
official forecast as latest high-resolution runs keep surface
conditions too dry to support fog chances.

Otherwise, a ridge of high pressure will then build across michigan
throughout Thursday and will continue to keep conditions dry as
clear to partly clouds skies persist throughout the day. Copious
amount of sunshine will allow temperatures to push into the low to
mid-60s for a daytime high as a weak pressure gradient keep winds
calm to light.

The next chance for rain will enter late Friday morning into the
early afternoon as an upper-level trough and associated cold front
push through the great lakes region. Temperatures will remain below-
normal as a thermal trough and overcast conditions help cap daytime
highs to the mid to upper 50s Friday afternoon. For reference,
normal highs reside in the lower-60s for late april. Otherwise, a
brief lull in precipitation will be possible late Friday afternoon,
before an embedded shortwave located on the backside of a trough
coupled with left exit dynamics from a jet maxima aloft help support
a second round of showers. Rain chances will be centered across the
metro region, late Friday into Saturday morning.

Any lingering showers will be on the way out by Saturday afternoon
as upper jet support and shortwave move off to the east. Strong
ridging through the troposphere will take over in the wake and high
pressure at the surface will dominate the weekend forecast. Thermal
trough with 850 mb temps in the negative single digits c will linger
through Saturday and limit surface highs to the low 50s. Quick
modification of this air mass in late april insolation will allow
Sunday's highs to rise to the mid 50s. Dry and mostly sunny
conditions will prevail Saturday through late Tuesday as the high
pressure slowly drifts south and east. Warm air advection will
become established by Monday with southerly flow bringing highs to
the upper 60s that day, and the lower 70s by midweek. Chance for
rain returns on Wednesday due to low pressure over ontario pushing a
cold front through the great lakes.

Marine...

small craft advisories remain in effect for saginaw bay and southern
lake huron through this evening. Peak gusts topping out near 25
knots will relax through the evening as low pressure tracks east to
southern ontario but the long north fetch will keep waves elevated
in excess of 4 feet for several more hours. High pressure will build
overhead tonight and hold through Thursday resulting in light winds
backing from northwest to southwest. A cold front will then reach
northern lake huron late Thursday night and sweep across the rest of
the basin through the day Friday. This combined with an additional
low pressure system sweeping across the southern lakes will keep
unsettled conditions and gusty northerly flow through the weekend.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Mr
discussion... Am tf
marine... ... .Dk
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 12 mi38 min E 6 G 7 42°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 16 mi40 min E 6 G 7 44°F 1014.7 hPa39°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 35 mi58 min E 5.1 G 7 41°F 1014.7 hPa (-0.3)
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 43 mi40 min E 2.9 G 5.1 41°F 1015 hPa39°F
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 47 mi58 min NW 1.9 G 4.1 41°F 1014.6 hPa (-0.3)

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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NE2
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G6
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G12
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NE9
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Monroe, Custer Airport, MI3 mi63 minS 410.00 miFair41°F38°F90%1014.2 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI18 mi63 minN 010.00 miFair40°F38°F93%1014.2 hPa
Lambertville, Toledo Suburban Airport, MI19 mi63 minESE 410.00 miOvercast46°F41°F82%1014.6 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI22 mi65 minN 010.00 miFair43°F35°F74%1014.6 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI23 mi65 minN 310.00 miFair43°F36°F76%1014.4 hPa

Wind History from TTF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmN4N4N4NW9N10
G17
NW10NW8
G17
N13
G18
W12
G18
NW12
G21
NW8NW9
G15
NW5S9
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E8E8E6E4E5E4
1 day agoCalmE3CalmE5E7E8E6E7E7SE6
G14
E6E8E7E7
G14
E6E8E8E5NE3NE4E6E6NE4NE4
2 days agoNE4NE5NE6NE4CalmNE4E6E7E5E7E8
G16
E4E11
G17
E7
G18
E12
G20
SE8SE10
G20
S15
G20
S3CalmS6SE4CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.