Saturday, August19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Monroe, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 8:28PM Saturday August 19, 2017 1:31 AM EDT (05:31 UTC) Moonrise 3:15AMMoonset 6:05PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ444 Michigan Waters Of Lake Erie From Detroit River To North Cape Mi- 1002 Pm Edt Sat Jul 22 2017
Rest of tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the north early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Light and variable winds. Mostly cloudy early in the morning...then partly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the west in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening...then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late evening and early morning. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less. SEe lake erie open lake forecast for days 3 through 5. The water temperature at belle isle is 77.4 degrees.
LEZ444 Expires:201707230900;;229447 FZUS63 KDTX 230203 GLFSC GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1001 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A broad area of low pressure...29.70 inches...will slowly track across Lower Michigan through Sunday. The system will exit to the east Sunday night, pulling a cold front through the central Great Lakes late Sunday and Sunday night. High pressure...30.20 inches...then builds into the area Monday and Tuesday. LEZ444-230900-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Monroe, MI
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location: 41.91, -83.39     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 190357
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1157 pm edt Fri aug 18 2017

Aviation
Just as lowerVFR MVFR CIGS exit to the east, additional stratus in
roughly the 5-6kft area will progress east into the area overnight
as shortwave approaches. While shower chances do not appear as
likely given late evening trends recent model guidance, expect a few
shras dotting area south of kptk early Saturday morning. Skies will
then scatter out through the day into the evening as drier northwest
flow develops in the wake of this passing wave.

For dtw... CIGS may flirt with 5000 feet again late tonight into
Saturday morning, but clearing is then expected from midday into the
evening.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium for cigs AOB 5kft for a several hour period early Saturday
morning.

Prev discussion
Issued at 336 pm edt Fri aug 18 2017
discussion...

gusty westerly winds topping out around 30 mph this afternoon, with
dew pts settling toward 60 degrees under cloudy mostly cloudy skies.

Upper level trough wave over the upper mississippi river valley to
arrive early Saturday morning. Narrow short lived 850-700 mb theta-e
ridge will attempt to slide in overnight, with pw values around 1.5
inches along the southern michigan border, but the 850 mb jet winds
fail to back a whole lot over the ohio valley, and thinking just
chance pops are justified with marginally unstable showalter indices
around. In fact, local probabilistic SREF guidance argues for just
low chance right along the border, with slight chance farther north.

Fairly cold 500 mb temps of -13 to -15 c Saturday morning will lead
to a brief opportunity for a thunderstorm or two to develop before
trough thermal axis slides east.

Upper level northwest confluent flow becoming established Saturday
afternoon will allow high pressure to build into the southern great
lakes, with dry and pleasantly warm conditions around for the rest
of the weekend. 850 mb temps reaching 15 c Sunday afternoon should
allow maxes to reach into mid 80s.

Pseudo upper level zonal flow setting up on Monday, and although we
should still be under the influence of the departing high, with warm
advection pattern and warm front set up over the midwest, there is
concern for increasing mid high clouds during Monday afternoon, with
could hinder viewing of the eclipse. Airmass looks capable of
supporting upper 80s to around 90 degrees for highs, but with high
clouds and eclipse leading to less insolation, prefer to be a bit
more conservative.

Otherwise, cloud cover will certainly ramp up throughout Tuesday as
troughing builds in across the great lakes aloft. Warm, humid air
with dewpoints in the upper 60s along with embedded short-waves aloft
will bring the likely chance for rain showers and thunderstorms
throughout Tuesday, before a cold front acts to bring in cool, dry
air early Wednesday. The cold front will be quite impactful in terms
of temperature change, where forecasted highs are only expected to
cap in low to mid 70s both Thursday and Friday. A broad, surface high
pressure system will then move in place across michigan late next
week into the weekend, which will look to bring an extended period of
dry weather.

Marine...

small craft advisories will continue into the evening as
strong and gusty westerly winds continue. These winds will
gradually weaken overnight and continue to weaken Saturday as high
pressure builds in from the west. A weak disturbance may bring some
light showers across western lake erie Saturday morning. Light
westerly winds Saturday will back to the south southwest on Sunday
and continue into the beginning of next week. The next chance for
showers and thunderstorms will start across lake huron Monday then
spread across all of the water Monday night and continue through
Tuesday. Winds will finally veer back northwest Tuesday night.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Dg
discussion... Sf am
marine... ... .Drc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 12 mi42 min W 8 G 9.9 72°F
45165 16 mi22 min WNW 5.8 G 9.7 72°F 76°F1 ft60°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 16 mi44 min W 1.9 G 2.9 69°F 1012.6 hPa60°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 35 mi32 min WNW 12 G 13 73°F 1011.8 hPa (+1.2)
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 43 mi44 min WNW 8.9 G 11 73°F 1012.9 hPa64°F
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 47 mi32 min WSW 4.1 G 6 70°F 1012.2 hPa (+1.0)

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Monroe, Custer Airport, MI3 mi37 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy64°F61°F93%1012.2 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI18 mi39 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy67°F60°F78%1011.8 hPa
Lambertville, Toledo Suburban Airport, MI19 mi37 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy64°F61°F95%1012.5 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI22 mi39 minSSW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy67°F61°F81%1012 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI23 mi39 minSW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy65°F62°F90%1011.6 hPa

Wind History from TTF (wind in knots)
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W6W6W4W3CalmCalm
1 day agoSE5SE5SE4SE4SE4SE3SE4SE5S4SW7
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SW4CalmSW11
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SE3S7SW11
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SW7SW7SW10SW7SW8SW7SW6
2 days agoNE3CalmCalmN3NE3CalmE3NE3E6E6SE8
G14
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G16
E8E6E4SE7E5E5E5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.