Monday, December11, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Monroe, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:50AMSunset 5:04PM Monday December 11, 2017 5:40 PM EST (22:40 UTC) Moonrise 1:11AMMoonset 1:46PM Illumination 40% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LEZ444 Michigan Waters Of Lake Erie From Detroit River To North Cape Mi- 1002 Pm Edt Sat Jul 22 2017
Rest of tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the north early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Light and variable winds. Mostly cloudy early in the morning...then partly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the west in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening...then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late evening and early morning. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less. SEe lake erie open lake forecast for days 3 through 5. The water temperature at belle isle is 77.4 degrees.
LEZ444 Expires:201707230900;;677433 FZUS63 KDTX 230203 GLFSC GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1001 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A broad area of low pressure...29.70 inches...will slowly track across Lower Michigan through Sunday. The system will exit to the east Sunday night, pulling a cold front through the central Great Lakes late Sunday and Sunday night. High pressure...30.20 inches...then builds into the area Monday and Tuesday. LEZ444-230900-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Monroe, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 41.91, -83.39     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kdtx 112037
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
337 pm est Mon dec 11 2017

Discussion
Winter weather advisory has been issued for a portion of southeast
mi for 2-4 inches of snow this evening. More information below.

Active pattern remains in place across the eastern CONUS as very
energetic long wave trough sends a series of shortwaves down through
the region this week. There will be a couple opportunities for snow
Wednesday and Saturday as clippers slide through the region. In
addition to snow chances, the coldest airmass of the season will
arrive mid week dropping low temperatures to single digits with wind
chills at or below zero Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Current surface analysis is matching up well with guidance over the
last 24 hours with the tightly wound, but open shortwave diving
southeast through the midwest states toward the ohio valley. One
detail we've been trying to peg was how the surface low would shape
out as the initial phasing processes begin with a strong vorticity
lobe that is fast on its heals rotating around the parent low.

Combination of shearing height falls along the trough axis with lake
aggregate troughing over the lakes, is leading to a pseudo split
low. The surface reflection that will track through the ohio valley
is the dominate feature, with the height fall center over the
straits the secondary center. This southern low has already
generated a thin fgen band extending well east of the low which will
strengthen as it lifts up into SE mi. This will be the item of
interest for snowfall accumulations this evening. Models trends
through this afternoon have increased confidence in the placement of
this band. Latest runs of the rap, hrrr, and ECMWF all suggest a
slight shift back southward, although most models key in on the area
between i69 and i94 generally between 22-02z.

It appears the fgen band will lift up across the mi border late this
afternoon through the detroit metro before stalling around the m59
corridor. This will last a few hours as the low slide south of the
mi border but snowfall will continue as the trailing deformation
band then pivots through the area tonight. In the end we are still
looking for a widespread 1-2 inches of snow across most of the area
with a band of 2-4 inches setting up where the advisory is. Note
that there could be a decent gradient of accumulations across wayne
and washtenaw with locations across southern portions of those
counties likely not seeing 3+ inches. Similarly for counties along
the i69 corridor, higher chances to see 3+ inches will occur across
southern portions of those counties.

By Tuesday morning the trough will have swung through the area
opening the door for strong northwest flow and good cold air
advection. Thermal trough drops over the great lakes with a broad
area of 850mb temps of -20c. With winds gusting to around 30 mph and
highs only around 20-25f, winds chill values will range from -5 to
5f. This will continue through the overnight before winds fall off
enough Wednesday to allow some recovery. Other potential concern for
late Tuesday is the threat of a lake effect snow band to brush the
eastern thumb. A difficult feature to ever forecast, but hires
models are starting capture the time period starting around 20z.

Confidence remains high that the band will develop but models have
been trending east with the meso low over northern lake huron
dropping southward. A further west track would act to push the band
closer to shore. So potential is there a quick accumulation of
snowfall along the eastern shore of the thumb.

Wednesday is looking quite similar to today with a clipper tracking
southeast through the ohio valley. Nam. Gfs, and ECMWF are all
showing around 0.2 inches of QPF across the southern half of the
cwa. With the thermal profile in place, another 2 inches of snowfall
wouldn't be out of the question.

The longwave trough over the eastern CONUS will remain in place and
allow for a series of shortwaves to pivot over the area Thursday
through Saturday. The active pattern will result in a small chance
for snow showers each day, with the better chance on Friday and
Saturday as the longwave trough takes on a negative tilt and a
surface low develops over the northern great lakes. Temperatures
will begin a slow upward trend as the coldest dome aloft moves off
to the east, though still remaining below average with highs
Thursday and Friday reaching the mid to upper 20s. Saturday will see
the return of above freezing temps with highs pushing the mid 30s.

Model guidance is suggesting a shortwave and low pressure system
will move across the central CONUS and eventually to our area late
Saturday into Sunday, though the placement and timing have not been
well resolved this far out. A more southern track like the ecmwf
currently suggests could lead to another light snowfall for the
area, while a more northern track per the GFS would leave se
michigan mostly out of the best chance for precip. Will monitor
trends in this system over the next week.

Marine
A strong cold front will transit the waters late tonight. Strong
northwest gales will develop with gusts approaching or briefly
reaching storm-force over the exposed nearshore waters of the thumb
and the open waters of central and southern lake huron. Gale
warnings are now in effect for all marine zones. Temperatures
falling through the 20s into the teens and significant wave heights
of 10 to 15 feet also warrant issuance of a heavy freezing spray
warning. Maximum wave heights will easily exceed 25 feet.

Prev discussion
Issued at 1252 pm est Mon dec 11 2017
aviation...

initial burst of isentropic ascent snow continues to exit to the
east, with lingering light snow possible the next few hours before a
brief lull in activity later this afternoon. Clipper system
currently located over northern illinois will continue to approach
the region this evening, with fgen band of peak snow late this
evening into the early overnight hours. Hi-res model guidance
continues to struggle with placement of banding, leading to a
relatively low confidence forecast, although trends have been most
consistent in more persistent banding setting up between i-96 and i-
69, impacting the kptk and kfnt sites the greatest. Timing of band,
which looks to scrape kdtw, kyip, and kdet for at least a few hours
in a more transient nature looks to be between 23z-01z, and 01z-05z
for kptk, kfnt, and kmbs.

Flying conditions will briefly improve to mainly MVFR ceilings
through roughly 22z with MVFR vis ceilings after lingering morning
snow exits by 19z (ifr conditions possible in lingering snow). Ifr
vsby restrictions return with fgen snowband (down to as low as 1 2
sm at times), with low-end MVFR ceilings and possible ifr ceilings
in heaviest snow. Fgen forcing exits east by 06z with a 3-6 hr
window of wrap-around light deformation snow before drier air moves
in by 12z. Winds will initially be south southeasterly 5-10 knots
this afternoon before trending light and variable as the clipper low
passes by to the south evening early overnight. After 06z, winds
quickly pick up out of the northwest in the wake of the clipper,
topping out at around 20 knots with gusts to 30 knots especially
after 12z.

For dtw... Initial surge of light snow ends shortly after taf
issuance, with a brief 2-4 hr window lull in activity before light
snow returns heading into the evening at MVFR levels. Fgen moderate
snowband looks to clip the terminal in the 23z-01z timeframe with a
quick shot at an inch or two additional accumulation before activity
transitions to wraparound light snow through roughly 10z. Ifr vsbys
and low-end MVFR ceilings will be prevalent in the fgen snow, with
possible worse conditions if hi-res guidance trends further south
with the band as the afternoon progresses. After 12z, gusty
northwest winds to 30 knots may pose risk of crosswind thresholds
being exceeded.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high confidence for ceilings at or below 5000 feet through
much of period.

* high confidence in precip type being snow this forecast.

* moderate confidence in northwest crosswind thresholds being
exceeded.

* low for visibility 1 2 sm or less in snow this evening.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Winter weather advisory until 2 am est Tuesday for miz060-061-
068>070-075-076.

Winter weather advisory from 7 pm this evening to 2 am est Tuesday
for miz062-063.

Lake huron... Heavy freezing spray warning from 7 am Tuesday to 4 am est
Wednesday for lhz361>363-421-441>443-462>464.

Gale warning from 1 am Tuesday to 5 am est Wednesday for lhz362-363-
462>464.

Gale warning from 4 am to 4 pm est Tuesday for lhz422.

Gale warning from 4 am Tuesday to 4 am est Wednesday for lhz421-
441>443.

Gale warning from 1 am to 11 pm est Tuesday for lhz361.

Lake st clair... Gale warning from 4 am to 4 pm est Tuesday for lcz460.

Michigan waters of lake erie... Gale warning from 4 am to 4 pm est Tuesday for lez444.

Discussion... Drk tf
marine... ... .Jvc
aviation... ..Irl
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 12 mi41 min SE 12 G 14 32°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 16 mi41 min SSE 6 G 8 33°F 1008.2 hPa (-3.4)22°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 35 mi41 min SE 13 G 14 32°F 1009.6 hPa (-3.6)
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 43 mi41 min ESE 4.1 G 8 31°F 1009.7 hPa (-3.5)24°F
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 47 mi41 min SSE 8 G 14 29°F 1009.5 hPa (-3.0)

Wind History for Toledo, OH
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
Last
24hr
SW7
G12
SW7
G10
SW6
G11
SW5
G8
W5
G10
NW7
G15
NW10
G13
NW9
G15
NW5
NW5
NW3
G6
NW5
E1
--
S4
S5
SE7
G10
S7
S6
G9
S5
G8
S9
S9
S7
SE6
1 day
ago
NW5
NW6
NW8
NW6
NW6
G9
NW8
G12
NW8
G12
NW9
G13
W5
G8
W5
W5
SW7
G10
SW6
G11
SW8
G12
SW8
G16
SW11
G19
W10
G15
SW9
G16
SW11
G17
SW13
G18
SW10
G16
SW10
G15
SW8
G13
SW7
G12
2 days
ago
SW8
S6
G11
SW9
G13
SW7
G11
S8
SW8
G15
SW7
G11
S11
G15
S7
G13
SW10
G14
SW6
G12
S6
G9
S10
G13
S7
G11
S8
G11
S8
G13
S10
G14
S10
SW5
G10
SW7
G11
SW8
G11
W7
G10
W3
G6
W2

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Monroe, Custer Airport, MI3 mi46 minSSE 57.00 miLight Snow31°F25°F80%1008.8 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI18 mi46 minS 101.75 miLight Snow31°F26°F85%1008.8 hPa
Lambertville, Toledo Suburban Airport, MI19 mi46 minN 010.00 miOvercast32°F23°F72%1008.1 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI22 mi48 minSSE 85.00 miLight Snow31°F25°F79%1010 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI23 mi48 minSSE 85.00 miLight Snow31°F26°F82%1009.2 hPa

Wind History from TTF (wind in knots)
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
-12
PM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
Last 24hrSW5SW8SW7W6W9NW7NW8NW7W5W5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S6S7S6S5S5S6SE6SE4
1 day agoW5W4W4NW7NW8W8W8W6W6W4SW4SW6SW7SW10W12SW14
G17
SW16
G20
SW13
G19
SW15SW11
G17
SW11SW11
G15
W9SW6
2 days agoSW5SW5SW4SW5S6S6S6SW6S10SW8SW6S5S7S9S8S8S7SW5S4SW6SW5W9W4W4

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (17,4,5,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.