Tuesday, May22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Ewen, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:27AMSunset 8:18PM Tuesday May 22, 2018 3:27 PM EDT (19:27 UTC) Moonrise 1:01PMMoonset 2:02AM Illumination 54% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 553 Am Edt Tue May 22 2018
Today..SE winds around 5 kt, increasing to 5 to 10 kt this afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers early this morning. Slight chance of showers late this morning, then showers this afternoon.
Tonight..E winds around 5 kt, becoming S around 5 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Numerous showers, mainly in the evening. Patchy fog in the evening. Areas of fog after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..SW winds around 5 kt, increasing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 553 Am Edt Tue May 22 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A warm front will approach this morning and lift through the waters late this afternoon or during the evening. A cold front follows late tonight into Wednesday morning. High pressure returns behind the frontal passage and remains through Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Ewen, NY
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location: 41.92, -73.98     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 221733
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
133 pm edt Tue may 22 2018

Synopsis
As a storm system moves across the region, some rain
will continue, along with cooler temperatures. Dry and warmer
weather will be back for tomorrow through Friday. The chance for
some showers or thunderstorms will return for the holiday weekend
with above normal temperatures.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 120 pm edt... A warm front remains south and west of the
region across west-central ny and pa southward into the mid
atlantic states. A wave of low pressure moving northeast from
the eastern great lakes region will continue a period of
rainfall, briefly moderate at times due to the strong isentropic
lift. It took a little time to overcome the dry low-levels per
the 12z kaly sounding, but periods of rain continue. Some let up
on the rain rain showers has occurred across western pa ny, as
these areas punch into a warm sector briefly. We retooled the
pops based on the latest 3-km hrrr trends with likely and
categorical values into the late pm. A few thunderstorms may pop
up as the cold front and wave of low pressure approach early
this evening.

Max temps will be of the wet bulb variety and steady or slightly
rise into the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Thursday
The warm front should lift northward by late in the day,
allowing the southern half of the area to reach into the storm's
warm sector for this evening, as low pressure tracks across
upstate new york. The storm's cold front will be moving from
west to east across new york with some additional showers for
tonight. The 3km hrrr suggests that some elevated instability
could be in place, so will allow for some isolated thunder this
evening across the western mohawk valley, schoharie county and
into the eastern catskills, mid-hudson valley and NW ct, as the
last batch of showers moves west to east across the area, mainly
before midnight.

Behind this storm system, clouds will start to clear out for
Wednesday. However, another system will be moving across the
area, as an upper level disturbance moves from eastern canada
and across northern new england, with a secondary surface cold
front is expected to move across the area. This front won't have
much moisture to work with, so little additional precip is
expected on Wednesday. It should be mild, though, as temps warm
well into the 70s for Wednesday with a mix of Sun and clouds.

With a cool northwest flow in place, temps will fall into the
mid 40s to mid 50s for Wednesday night with mainly clear skies.

Surface high pressure will allow for plenty of sunshine and dry
conditions for Thursday. It will be slightly cooler as compared
to Wednesday thanks to the northwest flow in place, but still
fairly mild, with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s.

Long term Thursday night through Monday
The long term forecast will begin with dry pleasant weather to end
the work and school week before a transition to an unsettled weather
pattern for the upcoming holiday weekend.

Confidence remains high that a departing upper trough will exist
slowly off the new england coastline as a broad and elongated high
pressure area moves across the region. A warm front with minimal
moisture content is forecast to lift east-northeast later Friday
which will signify a change of airmass heading into the holiday
weekend. Temperatures through Friday night will average near to
above normal.

The holiday weekend offers lower confidence with respect to
precipitation coverage and timing but moderate to high confidence
that there will be periods of unsettled conditions and increased
cloud coverage. Per the global model consensus, a cold front is
forecast to drop southward from eastern canada Saturday, however,
just how far southward this frontal zone gets remains to be seen.

The upper pattern remains a bit chaotic as weak upper low over the
upper great lakes remains poorly placed per the standard deviations
as h500 heights attempt to reposition in the wake of the
aforementioned departing upper trough. For now, we will keep the
chance pops in the forecast through the holiday weekend. The best
chance for organized convection appears later Saturday into Saturday
night at this time.

Memorial day appears rather cloudy with a good chance for periods
of wet weather as broad upper trough across the ohio valley into the
gulf of mexico, along with any tropical activity, advects northward
along the i95 corridor. Please refer to special statements from the
national hurricane center with the latest updates.

Aviation 18z Tuesday through Sunday
A warm front will approach from the southwest through tonight,
as a weak low pressure system tracks east from the great lakes.

A cold front associated with this low will track southeast
across the TAF sites toward daybreak Wednesday.

Light to moderate rain will persist across the TAF sites
through mid to late afternoon, with areas of MVFR developing,
esp for cigs. Isolated ifr CIGS will be possible, ESP at kpsf.

The areal coverage of rain will decrease as precipitation
becomes more showery tonight. CIGS will vary between MVFR and
ifr, with the best chance of sustained ifr conditions at kpsf
and kgfl.

As the cold front moves across toward daybreak, conditions
should improve toVFR at all TAF sites between 12z-15z wed.

Winds will be from the south at 5-10 kt at kalb this afternoon
and tonight, while remaining light variable at other TAF sites.

Winds will shift into the west northwest at 5-10 kt from mid
morning Wednesday into the afternoon hours, with some gusts of
15-20 kt possible toward 18z Wed at kalb and kpsf.

Low level wind shear has been included at kgfl through this
afternoon, as surface winds remain light from the south at less
than 8 kt, while winds around 2000 ft agl increase from the
south to southwest at 30-35 kt.

Outlook...

Wednesday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Thursday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Thursday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Friday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Friday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Saturday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Tsra.

Saturday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Tsra.

Sunday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Tsra.

Fire weather
A storm system will bring a wetting rainfall to much of the
region today into this evening with rh values mainly above 60
percent, along with southerly winds of 5 to 15 mph.

Dry weather is then expected for the rest of the week. Rh
values will fall to 35 to 45 percent on Wednesday and near 30
percent on Thursday. West to northwest winds are expected to be
5 to 10 mph on both Wednesday and Thursday.

Hydrology
No hydrologic issues are anticipated this week.

A storm system will bring some light rain to the region today.

Basin average amounts will range between a quarter to half inch.

This rainfall will have little impact on area rivers and
streams, with flows mainly holding steady over the next few
days.

Dry weather is expected to return for Wednesday through Friday
as high pressure builds in. Our next chance for showers and
possible thunderstorms will be over the holiday weekend.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs
on our website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Frugis wasula
near term... Wasula
short term... Frugis
long term... Bgm
aviation... Kl bgm
fire weather... Frugis
hydrology... Frugis


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TKPN6 7 mi40 min S 6 G 8 63°F 63°F60°F
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 8 mi58 min 63°F 1018 hPa59°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 67 mi46 min SSW 5.1 G 8 60°F 56°F1019.6 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY20 mi35 minS 310.00 miOvercast64°F57°F81%1018 hPa

Wind History from POU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN46W5CalmCalmSE3E4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE33SW4SE3CalmN3W4S3
1 day agoW10W10N8N7N4N3N4SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN8N83W7NW8W6
2 days agoNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmSE4CalmS4S3SW7SW7SW9W7SW9W7

Tide / Current Tables for Kingston, Hudson River, New York
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Kingston
Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Tue -- 02:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:15 AM EDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:00 AM EDT     4.09 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:01 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:02 PM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:50 PM EDT     3.94 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.30.80.50.71.52.53.33.94.13.93.32.41.60.90.30.10.41.32.33.23.83.93.62.9

Tide / Current Tables for Hyde Park, Hudson River, New York
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Hyde Park
Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Tue -- 01:53 AM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:01 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:40 AM EDT     3.54 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:01 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:40 PM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:30 PM EDT     3.41 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.90.60.40.81.62.43.13.53.53.22.61.81.20.60.20.10.61.42.32.93.33.42.92.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.