Tuesday, May21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Ewen, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:28AMSunset 8:16PM Tuesday May 21, 2019 2:40 AM EDT (06:40 UTC) Moonrise 11:09PMMoonset 7:44AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1027 Pm Edt Mon May 20 2019
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming nw with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..W winds around 5 kt, becoming S after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 1027 Pm Edt Mon May 20 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front pass across the waters this evening. High pressure builds in from the west on Tuesday, and over the waters on Wednesday. A quick moving frontal system will likely affect the waters late Thursday into Thursday night followed by high pressure on Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Ewen, NY
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location: 41.92, -73.98     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 210516
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
116 am edt Tue may 21 2019

Synopsis
Much cooler and drier air will filter in tonight into Tuesday,
with windy conditions developing. Temperatures return to normal
on Wednesday as high pressure moves into the region.

Near term until 6 am this morning
As of 110 am edt... Main change with this update was to increase
wind speeds through the rest of the night. ASOS and nys mesonet
obs indicating frequent gusts between 25-35 mph in the mohawk
valley, capital district, and taconics eastward into the
berkshires. Otherwise, mainly dry conditions expected through
the rest of the night with the cold front well south and east of
our region. Skies will be mainly cloudy west of the hudson
valley overnight, with more breaks from the valley eastward.

Temperatures will cool in the 40s to lower 50s.

Some showers will affect parts of the higher terrain well north
and west of albany overnight, as an upper level disturbance
moves through. Best chances for some showers and light
measurable rainfall will be across the western southern
adirondacks.

Short term 6 am this morning through Wednesday night
Tuesday will be noticeably cooler and drier with a fairly strong
northwest flow in place. An upper level low will move over
northern new england as high pressure gradually pushes eastward
from the great lakes. This pressure dipole will result in a good
pressure gradient, bringing windy conditions. Forecast
soundings indicate potential to mix down wind gusts of 30-40 mph
across much of the area. The wind combined with slightly below
normal temperatures will make it feel quite cool compared to the
past few days.

A north-northwest breeze will likely persist through much of
Tuesday night, as the surface high is forecast to still be just
west of the region during this time. So frost freeze conditions
are not likely to occur due to the breeze and temps in the upper
30s to mid 40s. It will feel rather cool though.

A pleasant day is expected for Wednesday, as surface high
pressure moves in from the west along with rising heights aloft.

This will provide plenty of sunshine, seasonable temperatures
and relatively light winds. Clouds may start to increase
Wednesday night, as a warm front starts to approach from the
ohio valley. Models indicating very little moisture or forcing
at this time, so will only mention slight chance pops for now.

Long term Thursday through Monday
As we head into the memorial day holiday weekend, the large scale
flow shows a very pronounced ridge centered over the gulf states
(500mb heights centered near 595dm) with fast zonal flow along its
northern periphery extending into the great lakes and the northeast.

Those seeking summer-like temperatures will be happy to hear this
set-up will keep 850mb temperatures warm over eastern ny and western
new england ranging +10c to +15c leading to seasonably warm surface
high temperatures in the 70s (60s higher terrain) with overnight
lows in the 50s. On the other hand, multiple shortwaves will be
riding within the fast zonal flow resulting in a few chances for
showers and thunderstorms. Read on for details.

We start the period off on Thursday with the remnant shortwave
that's actually responsible for the severe weather over tx and ok
today riding around the periphery of the large ridge into the
northeast. Initially, its warm front looks to move through Thursday
morning with clouds and perhaps a few showers. Given the shortwave
will still be rather potent and ridging southeastward from ontario
into our region, we have some uncertainty in the northern extend of
the warm front as some guidance suggests it stalls somewhere over
the upper hudson valley or north country. For now we have the
warmest temperatures extending from the mid-hudson valley northward
into the capital region in the low 70s while we kept areas
north east a few degrees cooler in the mid-upper 60s where clouds
may persist.

Model guidance is in general agreement that 500mb heights fall
across eastern ny and western new england towards 00z Friday as our
shortwave actually intensifies within the fast 500mb flow ranging 50-
60kts. Guidance shows that a pre-frontal trough could lead to some
showers convection in the late afternoon evening well ahead of the
main cold front that is delayed until closer to 12z Friday.

Instability (which may be mainly elevated) does not look overly
impressive but the fast flow environment should lead to more than
sufficient shear with sfc-6km bulk shear ranging 50-55kts. Depending
on how this play out, this could end up a low cape, high shear
environment. For now, mentioned thunderstorms in the Thursday
evening period when the best forcing looks to arrive.

The strengthening shortwave trough and associated cold front move
through Friday morning leading to breezy conditions along with some
lingering showers possible. By the afternoon, strong subsidence in
its wake intensifies a shortwave ridge rounding the large scale
ridge from the great lakes into the northeast. This should lead to
increasing Sun and weakening winds. Temperatures should end up a few
degrees cooler than Friday given the northwest flow.

High pressure maintains control heading into Friday night and
Saturday as it shifts into the gulf of maine. Upper level flow
shifts southwesterly giving us a warm Saturday in the 70s before yet
another cold front marching eastward through the great lakes.

Luckily, its parent low looks to be well displaced to our north
crossing through northern ontario quebec. Due to weak forcing and
the late arrival of the front Saturday late pm evening, we should
mainly be dealing with showers. Left out the thunder mention for now
as did not neighboring offices.

With our strong ridge still positioned over the southeast u.S, our
weak cold front may become washed out over the mid-hudson
valley southern new england on Sunday. A few shortwaves look to
still be riding within the fast zonal flow and with the leftover
boundary in place, these southern zones could see a few returning
showers storms. Otherwise, temperatures aloft remain very warm with
850mb isotherms ranging +10c to +15c so high temperatures Sunday may
end up being warmer than Saturday in the upper 70s to near 80 in
southern areas.

The boundary should get pushed south of eastern ny western new
england by Monday as weak canadian high pressure noses southward.

Kept Monday and Tuesday mainly dry and warm in the 70s with only
slight chance pops but we will need to monitor the pattern over the
coming days.

Aviation 05z Tuesday through Saturday
High pressure building in while northwest winds off the great lakes
continue to be gusty. Moisture off the great lakes is supporting a
cloud layer between 3500-5000 feet and that will continue from kalb
to kpsf and kgfl. The clouds are north of kpou and will mainly stay
north of kpou. The clouds will become scattered after daybreak and
through midday. Just scattered clouds above 3000 feet are expected
this afternoon and evening. Visibilities will remainVFR as well.

Winds will be northwest at 10 to 15 kt tonight with some gusts over
20 kt through daybreak, especially at kalb and kpsf. Winds will
occasionally be less than 10 kt at kpou and kgfl. Winds will be
northwest at 15 to 20 kts with some gusts as high as 30 kts during
the late morning through this afternoon. Winds will diminish to
around 10 kt or less through this evening.

Outlook...

Tuesday night: low operational impact. Breezy no sig wx.

Wednesday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Wednesday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Thursday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Tsra.

Thursday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Tsra.

Friday: low operational impact. Slight chance of shra.

Friday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra.

Saturday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra.

Fire weather
Southwest winds will gust to around 30 mph for the remainder of
the afternoon ahead of the cold frontal passage...

northwest winds will gust to between 30 and 40 mph on Tuesday...

scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with a
cold frontal passage, will move across the region this afternoon and
evening. Some of the storms may become severe, especially from
around albany south and east. Much cooler and drier air will filter
in tonight into Tuesday, with windy conditions developing.

Temperatures return to normal on Wednesday as high pressure moves
into the region.

Relative humidity values will recover to around 70 to 90
percent tonight and between 65 and 85 percent Tuesday night.

Minimum rh values will be around 35 to 50 percent Tuesday
afternoon and between 30 and 45 percent Wednesday afternoon.

Winds for the remainder of the afternoon will be southwest
around 10 to 20 mph, with gusts up to 30 mph. Winds tonight will
shift to the northwest (behind the cold front) and will
continue to be gusty. Winds will increase further on Tuesday to
around 15 to 25 mph, with gusts of 30 to 40 mph.

Hydrology
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible for the
remainder of the evening as a cold front moves through the
region. Moisture anomalies will still be relatively high, so
there is a continued chance for locally heavy rain within any
convection. Basin average rainfall amounts will vary
significantly due to convective nature of the precipitation.

Locally, rainfall greater than 1 inch will be possible where
thunderstorms are most persistent and or move across the same
areas. The threat for flooding is low due to expected fast
motion of thunderstorms. However, localized problems could occur
if storms repeatedly move across the same area.

Drier weather returns tonight through Wednesday as high
pressure gradually builds back into the region. The next chance
of showers arrives later in the week with the approach of a
warm front.

Please visit our advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS web
page for specific area rivers and lakes observations and
forecasts.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Jpv jlv
near term... Mse jpv jlv
short term... Jpv jlv
long term... Speciale
aviation... Nas
fire weather... Jpv jlv
hydrology... Jpv jlv


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPXN6 6 mi70 min NW 1.9 64°F 1010 hPa50°F
TKPN6 7 mi46 min Calm G 1.9 61°F 1010.2 hPa44°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 67 mi46 min NNW 4.1 G 5.1 64°F 56°F1007.6 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY20 mi47 minWNW 1210.00 miFair61°F44°F54%1008.7 hPa

Wind History from POU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW3CalmS3CalmSE3S4CalmSW5SW7SW6SW7SW9W9SW5SW9SW7SW5SW3SW3N13
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4N4NW6--NE5333E5NE3CalmN3E3CalmSE6CalmSE3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Kingston, Hudson River, New York
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Hyde Park, Hudson River, New York
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Hyde Park
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:26 AM EDT     3.97 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:44 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 10:12 AM EDT     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:04 PM EDT     3.21 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:16 PM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:08 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.92.93.63.93.93.52.71.70.90.2-0.10.10.91.82.533.232.51.81.10.60.30.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.