Thursday, October19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Ewen, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 6:08PM Thursday October 19, 2017 11:23 PM EDT (03:23 UTC) Moonrise 6:49AMMoonset 6:29PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 926 Pm Edt Thu Oct 19 2017
Overnight..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..N winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..S winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight.
Tue..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the afternoon.
Tue night..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
ANZ300 926 Pm Edt Thu Oct 19 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A weak cold front move across the waters late tonight. High pressure will then build back in through Saturday, sliding offshore Sunday and Monday. A slow moving frontal system will then approach the waters Tuesday into Tuesday night with a cold frontal passage by early Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Ewen, NY
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location: 41.92, -73.98     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 200226
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
1026 pm edt Thu oct 19 2017

Synopsis
A weak cold front will pass through our area tonight, but dry
conditions will prevail due to limited moisture. Another area of
high pressure will then build in from the south and west Friday
into the upcoming weekend, resulting in continued dry and mild
conditions.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
As of 1020 pm edt... Temperatures varying quite a bit across the
southern part of the area where some decoupling of winds has
occurred and resulted in rapid cooling into the upper 40s to
lower 50s. However, much of the area experiencing milder 50s to
lower 60s due to a light persistent breeze ahead of a weak cold
front approaching from the west. Based on surface obs, the front
appears to be located just west of the capital district and
hudson valley. The front will continue to track eastward across
our region late this evening into the overnight hours. Only
impact will be an increase in mainly high level clouds, as there
is very limited moisture associated with the front.

Behind the frontal passage, winds will shift from south-southwest
to north-northwest. With a persistent breeze expected tonight,
low temperatures will only be in the 40s across much of the
area.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through Sunday
North to northwest winds should be breezy Friday and there are
indications that a considerable boundary layer thermal gradient
hangs up across our area with the colder air in northern areas.

The north to northwest winds and cold advection should limit
warming across our area. So, even the mid hudson valley and nw
ct could see temperatures on the cooler side of guidance. Highs
Friday in the mid to upper 60s but near 70 southern areas and
lower 60s northern areas.

The cooler air retreats north Saturday as upper ridging builds
in from the west. More sunshine and increasing warm advection
will help temperatures reach the lower to mid 70s in most areas
but around 70 northern areas both Saturday and Sunday. Saturday
night lows will be in the 40s most areas.

Long term Sunday night through Thursday
Longwave pattern will trend more amplified during the beginning of
next work week. This will occur as a strong pacific jet carves out a
deep trough over the northern plains and upper midwest which
eventually becomes a full-latitude trough extending down into the
deep south. Lower-tropospheric low pressure is expected to form on
the downstream side of the trough, with the flow throughout the
column becoming more meridional with time. Appears that there is
potential for one or more swaths of heavier rainfall downstream of
the trough axis where the meridional flow sets up. The location of
the upper trough axis is still in question as there are multiple
shortwaves involved, leading to a complex interaction. The leading
edge of the height falls will approach the northeast by Monday,
deamplifying as it does so. An associated band of showers is
depicted by some of the medium-range models, but trends have been
slower weaker as the system approaches the local area. The southern
portion of this lead trough is expected to cut off over the deep
south Monday and get absorbed into the more amplified portion of the
trough by Tuesday and Wednesday. The interaction of these features
seems to be the key in whether the longwave trough becomes a bit
more progressive (leading to the quicker 12z GFS 12z ECMWF solutions
which results in wet weather by Tuesday Tuesday night) or deeper and
slower (as depicted by the 00z ECMWF which keeps most of Tuesday dry
and appears quite wet on Wednesday). Timing differences aside, this
pattern certainly bears close watching for heavy rainfall potential,
although given our very dry antecedent conditions, the ground can
take a lot of rainfall presently. Temperatures are expected to
remain well below normal at the start of the long term period,
trending back to near normal by mid-week as the trough
approaches.

Aviation 03z Friday through Tuesday
A cold front approaching from central ny will cross the region
tonight, but due to very limited moisture, there will only be
some patchy mid high level clouds into the overnight hours with
vfr conditions prevailing. Fog is not expected to develop
tonight due to winds remaining elevated associated with the
frontal passage. High pressure will then build in from the south
and west on Friday resulting in clear skies and continuedVFR
conditions.

Winds will initially be southwest around 5-10 kt, then shifting
to the north-northwest behind the cold front later tonight.

Winds speeds will increase by mid to late Friday morning once
better mixing commences, with around 10 kt gusting to near 20 kt
occasionally.

Outlook...

Friday night-Monday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Monday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra.

Tuesday: moderate operational impact. Likely shra.

Fire weather
South to southwest winds will gust to around 25 mph this
afternoon...

rh values will dip to between 30 and 40 percent Friday
afternoon with north to northwest winds gusting to around 20-25
mph...

a weak cold front will pass through our area this evening, but
dry conditions will prevail due to limited moisture. Another
area of high pressure will then build in from the south and west
Friday into the upcoming weekend, resulting in continued dry
and mild conditions.

Minimum rh values Friday and Saturday will be 30 to 40 percent.

Rh values will increase to around 70 to 100 percent tonight and
Saturday night. Because of these low rh values and gusty winds,
an sps will be issued for the entire forecast area for the day
Friday.

Winds will continue gusting around 25 mph through this
afternoon. Winds will shift to the west at 5 to 15 mph tonight.

Winds Friday are expected to be north to northwest around 15
mph and there could be some gusts to 20-25 mph.

Hydrology
No precipitation is expected through at least the weekend
thanks to persistent high pressure, with river stream flows
remaining at normal to below normal seasonal levels.

The next chance of rainfall arrives early next week, as a
widespread rainfall is possible associated with a slow-moving
frontal system. It is much too early for specific details, but
some heavy rain may occur in the Tuesday to Wednesday time
frame.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs
on our website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Nas jvm
near term... Jpv jvm
short term... Nas jvm
long term... Thompson
aviation... Jpv
fire weather... Nas jvm
hydrology... Nas jvm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 8 mi54 min 60°F 1017 hPa46°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 67 mi54 min NNW 1.9 G 5.1 61°F 66°F1017.8 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 70 mi95 min SW 14 G 19 66°F 1 ft52°F

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY20 mi31 minN 010.00 miFair49°F44°F83%1017.1 hPa

Wind History from POU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS34SW10
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1 day agoCalmCalmSW5SE3S3CalmS4CalmSW6SW6SW63335W6CalmS3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3NE5CalmCalmSW5SW6S7S4S4CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Kingston, Hudson River, New York
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Kingston
Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Thu -- 01:32 AM EDT     4.24 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:48 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:05 AM EDT     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:58 PM EDT     4.55 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:12 PM EDT     New Moon
Thu -- 06:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:29 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:30 PM EDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.64.24.23.72.81.910.2-0.20.11.22.43.54.34.54.23.42.41.50.6-000.81.9

Tide / Current Tables for Hyde Park, Hudson River, New York
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Hyde Park
Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Thu -- 01:12 AM EDT     3.67 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:48 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:43 AM EDT     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:38 PM EDT     3.93 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:12 PM EDT     New Moon
Thu -- 06:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:29 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:08 PM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.33.73.52.92.11.30.6-0-0.20.41.42.43.33.83.93.52.71.810.3-0.10.212

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.