Friday, November16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rhinecliff, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 4:35PM Friday November 16, 2018 9:54 PM EST (02:54 UTC) Moonrise 2:36PMMoonset 12:34AM Illumination 66% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 852 Pm Est Fri Nov 16 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 am est Saturday...
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Sun..NE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Chance of showers in the morning.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 852 Pm Est Fri Nov 16 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure continues to move through the canadian maritimes overnight. High pressure then builds across the area into the weekend. Weak low pressure passes through late Sunday through Monday. High pressure then builds in Tuesday through Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rhinecliff CDP, NY
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location: 41.94, -73.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 170233
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
933 pm est Fri nov 16 2018

Synopsis
Areas of snow showers are moving across the adirondacks
down into parts of the capital district this afternoon with lake
effect snow showers possible for the higher terrain into tomorrow.

Otherwise, temperatures remain below normal through the weekend with
another threat for widespread light snow possible Sunday afternoon
into Monday.

Near term through Saturday
As of 930 pm est, widespread low clouds persist across the
region, with only a few breaks at times. In addition, regional
radars suggest some very light precipitation, mainly flurries,
across central and northern areas, with slight enhancement
across higher terrain areas of the southwest adirondacks and
southern vt.

Latest IR satellite imagery and both kbuf kaly soundings suggest
cloud tops relatively warm, with little ice nuclei remaining.

So, can not rule out some spotty drizzle snow grains in some
areas, with perhaps a touch of freezing drizzle across some
higher elevations of the adirondacks.

With the widespread clouds and west northwest winds from the
great lakes, temps may not fall off much overnight, especially
central and northern areas, where clouds and some wind should
persist. In these areas, temps have actually risen slightly over
the past few hours and expect temps to remain generally steady
overnight in the lower mid 30s. Some breaks and lighter winds in
southern areas may allow for some upper 20s lower 30s toward
daybreak, although if clouds persist, temps may hold above
freezing here as well.

Previous discussion follows...

goes16 water vapor this afternoon shows an shortwave moving
eastward across lake erie and southern canada. This is the
responsible lifting mechanism for the area of organized snow
showers downstream over the adirondacks into the mohawk valley
and upper hudson valley. The southern fringe of these snow
showers are even skirting parts of the capital district.

Generally radar reflectivities are low ranging 15-25dbz with
the airports showing light snow and flurries although a few nys
mesonet cameras show brief steadier bursts under the isolated
bands. With surface temperatures in these areas remaining in the
low 30s, some light accumulations are possible and updated the
latest forecast to include coatings to less than half an inch of
new snow for most areas with up to an inch in the adirondacks.

The latest hrrr shows these snow showers exiting southern vt
and the albany CWA by around about 00z tonight.

Zonal westerly flow continues tonight so some upslope snow
showers are possible in the typical prone areas of the
adirondack but the air mass moving over the lakes is not
terribly cold so not expecting much assistance from lake
moisture. Some clearing is possible in the wake of the exiting
shortwave in the mid- hudson valley and NW ct and with snow pack
on the ground, temperatures tonight should fall into the upper
20s. Further north, flow off the lakes should keep moisture
trapped underneath the inversion giving those areas mostly
cloudy skies. Thus. There should not be much of a diurnal
temperature change and low temperatures should only fall a few
degrees into the low 30s.

Winds could be a bit breezy this evening into tonight, mainly in
areas above 1000ft, as high pressure noses into the northeast
behind our exiting coastal storm leading to a tightening
pressure gradients. Westerly winds could gust up to 20 - 30 knots.

Short term Saturday night through Sunday night
High pressure continues pushing into the northeast with a
weakening cold front dropping down from canada. Continued
westerly flow off the lakes should keep most areas mostly cloudy
but high temperatures should finally reach the low 40s in
valley locations with mid - upper 30s in the hill towns higher
terrain.

The front weakens and even washes out as it drops into upstate
ny towards 00z Sunday so we are not expecting much in the way of
precipitation.

However, there should be reinforced shot of cold air advection
behind it and with 850mb isotherms near -10c to -13c moving
over lake ontario where water temperatures are near +9c, there
should be a strong enough temperature difference that lake
effect snow showers become possible. The latest guidance shows
potential for a single lake effect band to develop overnight. We
have coordinated our pops, QPF and snow amounts well with buf
and bgm to represent the potential snow accumulations in the
typical lake effect prone regions where 1 - 2 inches look
possible.

Cold air advection overnight should allow temperatures
to fall into the 20s for most areas in the albany CWA so any
snow melt that occurs during the day could refreeze into ice on
any untreated areas.

By Sunday, high pressure should take control of the area and end
the lake effect threat. Upstream, a broad longwave trough over
southern canada should deepen allowing westerly winds over
eastern ny western new england to back to the southwest. This
should lead to weak isentropic lift and warm air advection and
with the washed out front from Saturday night stalled over new
england down into nyc, we could see the leftover baroclinic zone
strengthen. At 500mb we see a weak shortwave within the broad
trough head into the northeast which could allow a weak wave of
low pressure to develop along this stalled boundary. The latest
ecmwf and GFS are in agreement with a broad area of light
precipitation developing and spreading northeastward into the
mid-hudson valley and western new england Sunday afternoon into
Sunday night. With temperatures in the mid-upper 30s and dew
points in the 20s, wet bulbing processes could allow
temperatures to drop to near freezing leading to a broad area
of light snow. While moisture is not terrible high with qpf
amounts generally around a tenth to less than two tenths of an
inch, this set up could lead to a period of light snow with
snow accumulations possible, especially as we head into the
night time hours. We will continue to monitor this next snow
potential in future updates.

Long term Monday through Friday
Much of the long term will be dominated by a reinforcing broad upper
level trough across the great lakes northeast u.S., favoring below
normal temperatures and generally dry conditions outside of some
possible lake effect snow showers and any snow showers
associated with individual upper level impulses cold fronts
passing through.

One such upper level disturbance should be exiting southern new
england Monday morning, with some rain snow showers lingering across
the mid hudson valley and NW ct. Another approaching disturbance and
lake moisture may bring snow showers to mainly the western
adirondacks later in the day. Otherwise, chilly with daytime highs
in the mid 30s to lower 40s in valleys, and mid 20s to lower 30s
across higher terrain.

The biggest uncertainty during the long term will be regarding a
stronger disturbance which amplifies the upper level trough, with
the 12z 16 GFS favoring an earlier passage for Tuesday Tuesday
night, with an ensuing cold outbreak for Tuesday night-Wednesday,
while the 12z 16 ECMWF is about a day later, with the coldest air
passing across the region thanksgiving day. Have sided with a blend
at this time with the coldest temps Wednesday, with subfreezing
highs regionwide, with teens 20s for higher terrain, and 20s lower
30s for valleys, and overnight lows mainly in the single digits and
teens for Tuesday night Wednesday morning, along with some wind.

Slight rebound forecast for Thursday with highs mainly in the 20s
and 30s, and overnight lows still in the teens for most areas.

However, should the ECMWF prove correct, much colder MAX temps,
mainly in the teens and 20s, would be possible Thursday.

Also, depending on the timing of the upper level shortwave and
attendant cold frontal passage, snow showers will be possible,
especially across the southern adirondacks, with timing favoring
mainly Tuesday night-Wednesday evening.

Slight moderation expected for Friday as heights gradually build,
with highs mainly in the 30s to lower 40s, and overnight lows mainly
in the 20s Friday morning.

Aviation 03z Saturday through Wednesday
Low pressure will track into the canadian maritimes tonight into
Saturday.

For kgfl, kalb and kpsf, areas of low clouds will persist much
of the night, although CIGS will likely vary between MVFR and
vfr (cloud bases generally 2500-3500 ft agl). Some flurries will
be possible at times, but not expected to reduce visibilities
or accumulate.

These low clouds may linger well into Saturday, especially at
kpsf, where occasional MVFR CIGS will remain possible.

At kpou, after some lower clouds this evening, clearing is
expected later tonight through Saturday.

Winds will increase from the west to northwest at 5-10 kt
tonight and continue into Saturday. Some gusts up to 20-25 kt
could occur, mainly at kalb and kpsf.

Outlook...

Saturday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Sunday: low operational impact. Slight chance of shsn.

Sunday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shsn.

Monday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Shsn.

Monday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Tuesday: low operational impact. No sig wx.

Tuesday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Wednesday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Fire weather
Areas of snow showers are moving across the adirondacks
down into parts of the capital district this afternoon with lake
effect snow showers possible for the higher terrain into tomorrow.

Otherwise, temperatures remain below normal through the weekend with
another threat for widespread light snow possible Sunday afternoon
into Monday.

Hydrology
Mainly dry through early Sunday outside of lingering snow
showers in the higher terrain. Another system has potential to
bring some light snow to portions of the area Sunday afternoon
into Sunday night.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Speciale
near term... Kl speciale
short term... Speciale
long term... Kl
aviation... Kl jpv
fire weather... Speciale
hydrology... Speciale


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TKPN6 5 mi43 min S 2.9 G 8 41°F 41°F29°F
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 6 mi85 min 42°F 1009 hPa31°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 66 mi43 min WSW 6 G 9.9 40°F 52°F1010.6 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY21 mi62 minSW 710.00 miOvercast39°F28°F67%1010.5 hPa

Wind History from POU (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNE8N9E4NE6N3N3CalmCalmCalmN3N3N3CalmE5NE4E5E5E5NE3CalmN7N5N7N7
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Tide / Current Tables for Kingston Point, Hudson River, New York
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Kingston Point
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Fri -- 02:09 AM EST     0.75 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:46 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:57 AM EST     3.07 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:36 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:28 PM EST     1.14 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:34 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:06 PM EST     3.34 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.310.80.91.52.12.62.93.12.92.41.91.61.41.21.21.72.42.93.23.33.22.82.1

Tide / Current Tables for Tivoli, Hudson River, New York
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Tivoli
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:39 AM EST     0.79 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:27 AM EST     3.26 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:36 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:58 PM EST     1.19 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:33 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:36 PM EST     3.55 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.20.90.81.322.533.23.22.92.31.81.61.31.21.52.12.83.23.53.53.22.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.