Friday, March22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rhinecliff, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 7:11PM Friday March 22, 2019 8:42 PM EDT (00:42 UTC) Moonrise 9:16PMMoonset 8:10AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 759 Pm Edt Fri Mar 22 2019
.gale warning in effect through Saturday afternoon...
.low water advisory in effect from 3 am to 10 am edt Saturday...
Tonight..W winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Slight chance of showers until early morning. Slight chance of snow showers after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Sun..W winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Mon night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Chance of rain in the evening.
Tue..N winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 759 Pm Edt Fri Mar 22 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure moves slowly northeast toward the canadian maritimes tonight into Saturday as high pressure builds to the west. The high moves to the south on Sunday into Sunday night, followed by a cold frontal passage on Monday. High pressure then builds in through the mid week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rhinecliff CDP, NY
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location: 41.94, -73.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 222349
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
749 pm edt Fri mar 22 2019

Synopsis
Cold, cyclonic flow around low pressure in the gulf of maine,
will bring rain, snow and gusty winds into Saturday morning. It
will remain cold and blustery for Saturday afternoon, before
fair weather and milder temperatures return for Sunday.

Near term through Saturday
Winter storm warning remains in effect for the western southern
adirondacks, western mohawk valley, eastern catskills,
helderbergs, northern taconics, northern berkshires and southern
greens through Saturday morning...

winter weather advisory remains in effect for the
central eastern mohawk valley, capital district, lake george
saratoga region, central taconics, southern berkshires and
northern litchfield hills through Saturday morning...

as of 740 pm edt, latest goes16 water vapor imagery shows upper
level low shifting mainly east across nj southern ny. This is
resulting in snow shower activity transitioning to an upslope
snow as the flow turns out of the west and becomes blocked.

This is already apparent in radar imagery, especially across
the taconics. Rain showers currently in the valleys should
transition over to snow tonight as boundary layer temps cool as
well. So have freshened up the hourly temps and pops to reflect
recent trends.

Prev disc...

as of 434 pm edt... Radar shows precipitation falling over most
of the forecast area. Latest rap analysis shows upper level low
along the ny pa border near the southern tier of ny. This upper
low is forecast to move east southeast tonight and pass across
the far southern part of our forecast area before merging with
another upper level low now over the gulf of maine. As it passes
by, the albany forecast area will be in a favored area for
precipitation, sort of a comma head. As temperatures fall
overnight, any rain will change to snow and all areas should see
at least a coating of snow overnight.

Current temperatures range from freezing or below at 2000' and
above, to the low to mid 30s in the hill towns to the low 40s
in the mid hudson valley. Web cams and metars show that snow is
falling at elevations above 1000' and a mix of rain and snow
below that. We've seen a few wet snowflakes at times mixed in
with the rain here at the office.

Short term Saturday night through Sunday night
As the second upper level disturbance moves in from the west
and merges with the low over the gulf of maine, colder air
aloft will advect in. We are expecting a complete change to
snow to occur during the evening hours, with change from rain to
snow occurring more gradually and later for elevations below
500 ft. Snow-liquid ratios will start to increase as the entire
column cools. Last places to change will be right along hudson
river which are near sea level and may not change over until
around midnight.

Widespread snow will then occur due to deformation wrap-around
moisture from the large gyre centered over eastern new england.

With NW flow strengthening, upslope enhancement with occasional
moderate snow intensity will occur across the NW adirondacks,
northern catskills, and n-s spine of the taconics and western
new england hills mountains. Forecast froude numbers from the
nam tonight into early Saturday morning are between 0.3 to 0.7,
which implies slightly blocked to blocked flow. So we expected
the most accumulating snowfall along and just west of the
southern greens, berkshires, litchfield hills and taconics. The
snow will gradually taper off to scattered snow showers Saturday
morning, as the strong low pressure system moves into the
canadian maritimes and the best moisture fluxes shift east of
the region. Additional snowfall expected to be highly elevation
dependent, with 6-12+ inches above 1500 ft, 3-6 inches below
500-1500 ft, and a coating to 3 inches below 500 ft.

After the snow ends, it will be blustery and cold through the
rest of the day Saturday. Wind gusts of 30-40 mph will be
common across the region, but we are expecting gusts to be just
below advisory criteria due to relatively shallow mixing heights
around 900mb based on forecast soundings. We will continue to
monitor trends and mention threat in the hwo. Highs on Saturday
from around freezing in the hill towns to the mid 40s in the mid
hudson valley, and the windy conditions will make it feel
colder.

Cold and breezy, but dry conditions expected on Saturday night.

Nw winds will not be as strong, but a breeze will persist due
to high pressure moving eastward across the carolinas. Lows
Saturday night in the teens and 20s. A warming trend is expected
for Sunday with continued dry conditions. Highs on Sunday from
the 40s in the hill towns to the 50s in the mid hudson valley.

Long term Monday through Friday
Expect below normal temperatures for the first half of the final
week of march as an arctic cold front on Monday ushers in
temperatures 10-15 degrees normal through Wednesday. Temperatures
should rebound back near to and even a bit milder than normal
heading towards the weekend. Read on for details.

The aforementioned arctic cold front will be pushing southeastward
from the st. Lawrence river valley into eastern ny and western new
england during the morning hours on Monday. Surface winds look to
shift to the northwest early in the day denoting the surface frontal
boundary with the associated surface low still far to our west in
the ohio valley. Moisture along the actual surface frontal boundary
looks fairly limited so we only expect linger rain (valley) and snow
(elevation) showers from the overnight to continue progressing south
and east from the capital district into the mid-hudson valley Monday
morning. As the surface low travels eastward from the ohio valley
into the mid-atlantic on Monday, an enhanced period of precipitation
looks possible but all of the global guidance members keep that wave
well to our south in the mid-atlantic. In fact, there is good model
consensus showing an abundance of dry air at 700mb arriving in the
wake of the frontal passage which should lead to clearing skies and
deepening mixing heights through the day Monday. Bukfit profiles
support this with breezy conditions developing within the deep layer
northwest flow resulting in continued cold air advection. Such a set-
up likely will keep high temperatures below normal, only reaching
into the 30s to low 40s.

Winds shift northerly Monday night denoting the arrival of the true
canadian air mass into the northeast. 850mb isotherms fall to
-10c to -18c by 12z Tuesday (2-3 standard deviations below normal
per the gefs) and with breezy winds continuing overnight, expect a
chilly night with lows falling into the teens and 20s (single digits
for the adirondacks and greens). Tuesday will remain chilly as the
northeast remains on the west side of the large scale ~1035mb high
pressure responsible for this air mass change which will keep
northerly flow in play. Tuesday should be the coolest day of the
week with high temperatures 10-15 degrees below normal, only
climbing into the 30s for most areas. Luckily, skies should be
mostly sunny so the strengthening march Sun angle should make it
feel a bit warmer.

Our large scale high pressure should move overhead Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Increasing subsidence and dew points very low in the
single digits should lead to calm winds and clear skies resulting in
nearly ideal radiational cooling conditions Tuesday night. Low
temperatures should once again fall much below normal, even cooler
than Monday night with calm winds, reaching the low - mid teens
(single digits again adirondacks greens) by Wednesday morning.

Another sunny day expected Wednesday as high pressure is positioned
over the northeast. As it heads eastward during the day, we should
see return southwesterly flow develop allowing high temperatures to
turn a bit milder reaching into the 30s and 40s. However, this is
still 5-10 degrees below normal but again the march Sun should help
make it feel warmer.

Thursday - Friday turns warmer into the 50s to potentially near 60
as high pressure moves into eastern new england and southwesterly
flow remains in place over eastern ny and western new england. We'll
have to monitor a few systems from the midwest that looks to travel
northeastward but high pressure firmly in place off the new england
coast could steer them to our north and west until possibly the
weekend. Keep tuned to future updates for details.

Aviation 00z Saturday through Wednesday
Variable flying conditions will continue overnight into Saturday
as an upper level low moves across the region. A mix of rain and
snow showers will be possible. For kpsf, upslope conditions and
cooler temperatures will result in mostly snow that is expected
to continue into the overnight period. Kalb should see evening
rain showers change over to snow showers overnight with snow
showers also impacting kgfl. A brief period of rain showers will
be possible at kpou this evening. So ifr conditions are
expected to linger for kpsf, with MVFRVFR conditions at kgfl-
kalb with mostlyVFR conditions at kpou.

Precipitation is expected to end across the entire region Saturday
morning within a couple hours of sunrise. Otherwise, brisk
northwest winds will continue withVFR conditions for hudson valley
taf locations and improving to MVFR at kpsf.

Outlook...

Saturday night: low operational impact. Breezy no sig wx.

Sunday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Sunday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of ra... Sn.

Monday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Shsn.

Monday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Tuesday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Tuesday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Wednesday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Fire weather
A coastal storm will bring rain and snow to the region tonight
through early Saturday. High terrain areas will see a moderate
to heavy snow accumulation, which will add to the snowpack
already in place. This will help limit fire weather concerns for
the time being across the region. Gusty northwest winds of
25-35 mph are forecast tonight and Saturday.

Hydrology
No hydrologic issues are anticipated for the next week.

After rain and snow today into Saturday morning, high pressure
is expected to bring mainly dry conditions for the upcoming
week. Forecast precipitation for the next week after Saturday is
less than a tenth of an inch. Minor rises are forecast from
today's rain and snow. Diurnal snow melt will lead to minor
changes in river stages during the upcoming week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs
on our website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... Winter weather advisory until noon edt Saturday for ctz001.

Ny... Winter weather advisory until noon edt Saturday for nyz039>041-
043-048>050-052-053-061-083-084.

Winter storm warning until noon edt Saturday for nyz032-033-
038-042-047-051-054-058-063-082.

Ma... Winter weather advisory until noon edt Saturday for maz025.

Winter storm warning until noon edt Saturday for maz001.

Vt... Winter storm warning until noon edt Saturday for vtz013-014.

Synopsis... Snd
near term... Snd jlv
short term... Snd jpv
long term... Speciale
aviation... Bgm jlv
fire weather... Snd
hydrology... Snd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TKPN6 5 mi48 min ESE 1.9 G 8 43°F 995.5 hPa28°F
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 6 mi72 min SW 5.1 42°F 995 hPa31°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 66 mi48 min NW 9.9 G 20 45°F 39°F994.2 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY21 mi49 minW 17 G 2510.00 miOvercast42°F28°F60%995.2 hPa

Wind History from POU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--NE6NE7NE6N5N7N11N9N9N10N9
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1 day ago5S4S6S4CalmE3CalmCalmCalmE3E3N3CalmSE4E4SE6SE5NE4E5NE5E6E6E3N4
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS6SW6SW11
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Tide / Current Tables for Kingston Point, Hudson River, New York
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Kingston Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:04 AM EDT     4.70 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:09 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 09:40 AM EDT     -0.89 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:25 PM EDT     4.48 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:16 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:03 PM EDT     -0.83 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.13.44.34.74.43.62.31.10.1-0.7-0.801.52.93.94.44.43.82.71.50.4-0.4-0.8-0.4

Tide / Current Tables for Tivoli, Hudson River, New York
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Tivoli
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:34 AM EDT     4.99 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:09 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 10:10 AM EDT     -0.93 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:55 PM EDT     4.76 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:15 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:33 PM EDT     -0.87 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.434.24.94.94.33.21.80.6-0.4-0.9-0.50.82.43.74.54.84.43.52.31-0-0.7-0.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.