Sunday, September23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rhinecliff, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 6:52PM Sunday September 23, 2018 4:20 PM EDT (20:20 UTC) Moonrise 6:34PMMoonset 5:00AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 311 Pm Edt Sun Sep 23 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from Monday morning through late Monday night...
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming E 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon night..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of rain in the evening, then rain likely after midnight.
Tue..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely. Patchy fog after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Wed night..SW winds around 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy fog. Chance of showers after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 311 Pm Edt Sun Sep 23 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure gradually builds in from the great lakes, then slides offshore Monday. A warm front slowly moves northward through the area Tuesday into Tuesday night, followed by a cold frontal passage Wednesday night. High pressure then builds to the north through late week, while a series of weak lows move along a stalled frontal boundary to the south of the area.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rhinecliff CDP, NY
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location: 41.94, -73.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 231939
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
339 pm edt Sun sep 23 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will ridge into the area from eastern canada and
northern new england bringing fair weather and seasonably cool
temperatures through Monday. A warm front will bring periods of
rain on Tuesday, while a cold front will bring rain showers and
a few thunderstorms on Wednesday. A return to cool and dry
weather is forecast for Thursday.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
As of 339 pm edt, northern part of forecast area is mainly
clear while high clouds continue to stream across southern part
of area. Temperatures range from the upper 50s to mid 60s. Radar
shows no precipitation echoes.

Visible satellite loop shows that clouds across the south
should gradually thin this evening, while there will be variable
clouds across the far north as a secondary cold front sags
southward into the area. Cold front has just passed through kslk
and kbtv and is forecast to reach kalb by 1 am and kpou by 4
am. No precipitation is expected across the area as the front is
moisture starved.

With cool dry air advecting into the region and good mixing as
the front moves through, did not include any fog in the forecast
for overnight. Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s north
to upper 40s south.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through Tuesday night
Dry weather is expected to continue through Monday evening.

High pressure will be anchored across the region through Monday
before sliding east off the new england coast Monday night. A
warm front will be moving into western new york late Monday
night bringing some rainfall to the region which should hold off
until after midnight Monday night. Strong gradient between high
pressure to the east and low pressure to the west leads to
southeasterly LLJ of 50-60kts on Tuesday. This LLJ will likely
enhance rainfall totals in the southeastern catskills and over
the southeastern foothills of the adirondacks. There is also a
low potential for some of these winds to mix down in the favored
spots for strong southeasterly winds such as the bennington, vt
area, north adams, ma area, the taconics of new york and across
parts of herkimer county. Vertical temperature profiles show a
low-level inversion which will hopefully prevent the winds from
mixing down.

There will likely be break in the heavy rain on Tuesday night.

Pwats rise to 1.5 to 2 inches by Tuesday night. Areas of light
rain and drizzle in this muggy air are expected as we will be in
the warm sector and dynamics will be lacking. Rainfall amounts
from late Monday night through Tuesday night should generally
range from an inch to an inch and a half with some 2+ inch
amounts expected in the favored upslope areas.

Highs on Monday and Tuesday will be in the upper 50s to upper
60s. Lows on Monday night in the 40s to mid 50s, and lows on
Tuesday night in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
At the start of the long term period, a cold front will be making
its way towards the area from the west. Ahead of the boundary, our
region will be very moist, with pwat values as high as 1.75 to 2.00
inches. Model soundings suggest the profile will be rather moist,
so abundant cloud cover looks to be in place, which should limit
surface-based instability. Will include a slight chc for thunder in
case some elevated instability is in place, but thunder doesn't look
too widespread considering the limited instability. Several bands
of showers look to pass through the region ahead of the front, so
locally heavy downpours are possible, ESP considering the high
pwats, and localized hydro issues are possible if heavy shower occur
over repeated areas. Thanks to warm temps aloft, MAX temps look to
reach the lower to middle 70s for valley areas, although this is
rather low confidence, as the abundant cloud cover may keep temps a
little cooler than currently forecast.

The front should sweep through the area on Wednesday evening, ending
precip and allowing drier air to work into the area from the west.

By Thursday, MAX temps will only reach into the 60s with dewpoints
in the 40s thanks to a light northwest wind.

The dry weather could be short-lived, although the models are rather
unclear on this. The GFS and many of the GEFS members suggest a
wave of low pressure may develop along the old frontal boundary and
lift up the eastern seaboard for Thursday night into Friday,
bringing some showers towards our area. Meanwhile, the ECMWF and
ggem either don't show this or have it occurring well south of the
area. For now, will go with low to slight chc pops for Thursday
night into Friday and keep temps close to seasonal normals.

As of right now, it looks mainly dry and quiet for most of the
upcoming weekend, although the next northern stream system may be
approaching by late in day Sunday into Sunday night with some
showers, mainly for northern parts of the area. Will continue with
fairly seasonable temps for the last weekend in september.

Aviation 19z Sunday through Friday
Vfr conditions to prevail for most of forecast period.

Vfr conditions at all terminals now. Some dense cirrus noted
across kpou and kpsf, although this has no impact on flight
categories.

For tonight, a weak cold front will settle southward,
increasing the winds from the north to northeast. This should
preclude the development of much in the way of br. Have just
offered a few hours of MVFR br at kgfl and kpsf toward sunrise
Monday.

Outlook...

Monday night: high operational impact. Ocnl shra.

Tuesday: high operational impact. Definite shra.

Tuesday night: high operational impact. Definite shra.

Wednesday: high operational impact. Definite shra... Tsra.

Wednesday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra.

Thursday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Thursday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra.

Friday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra.

Fire weather
High pressure will ridge into the area from eastern canada and
northern new england bringing fair weather and seasonably cool
temperatures through Monday. A warm front will bring periods of
rain on Tuesday, while a cold front will bring rain showers and
a few thunderstorms on Wednesday. A return to cool and dry
weather is forecast for Thursday.

Relative humidity values will recover to 80 to 100 percent
tonight, and drop to 50 to 65 percent on Monday. Relative
humidity values will recover to 80 to 100 percent again Tuesday
morning
winds will generally be light and variable at less than 10 mph
this evening. Winds will become northeasterly tonight at 5 to
10 mph and then switch to southeasterly at 5 to 15 mph on
Monday.

Hydrology
Fair and seasonably cool weather is expected through Monday.

There is the potential for 1 to 3 inches of rain from late
Monday night into Wednesday evening. A warm front will bring
periods of rain on Tuesday, while a cold front will bring rain
showers and a few thunderstorms on Wednesday afternoon. Wpc has
placed much of eastern new york and western new england in a
marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall Tuesday through
Tuesday night. Periods of heavy rainfall may produce some urban
and poor drainage flooding as well as perhaps some small stream
flooding. Additionally, localized heavy rain is possible on
Wednesday afternoon from thunderstorms as a cold front crosses
the area.

At this time, extended river forecast models show no flooding
is forecast on the main stem rivers, but some half to three
quarter bank full rises are possible.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs
on our website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Snd
near term... Snd
short term... Snd
long term... Frugis
aviation... Okeefe
fire weather... Snd
hydrology... Snd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TKPN6 5 mi39 min 61°F 71°F51°F
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 6 mi51 min 60°F 1024 hPa53°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 66 mi39 min 64°F 73°F1023.2 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 71 mi36 min ENE 7.8 G 12 65°F 1 ft56°F

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY21 mi28 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds61°F50°F67%1023.5 hPa

Wind History from POU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmN4N3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3Calm
1 day agoS6S7S5S9
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S7S7S5SW5SW7SW8NW63NW8N8NE10NE9N7N9N7N9N6
2 days agoW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SE4CalmCalmS3S3S4S4SE3S5S33S5S9
G17
S7S7S6

Tide / Current Tables for Kingston Point, Hudson River, New York
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Tivoli, Hudson River, New York
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.