Thursday, May23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rhinecliff, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:27AMSunset 8:18PM Thursday May 23, 2019 11:25 AM EDT (15:25 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 9:29AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1056 Am Edt Thu May 23 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from Friday morning through Friday afternoon...
Today..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Isolated showers late this morning. Scattered showers and tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds around 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely with numerous tstms in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming se around 5 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of tstms in the evening. Chance of showers.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Sun night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..N winds around 5 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1056 Am Edt Thu May 23 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A warm front approaches today, moving across the waters late this afternoon into this evening. A cold front follows, moving across the forecast waters tonight. High pressure returns Friday and Saturday. A frontal system will pass through the area waters late Saturday into Sunday then set up south of the region through Monday with a wave of low pressure passing through the area waters Monday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rhinecliff CDP, NY
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location: 41.94, -73.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 231431
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
1031 am edt Thu may 23 2019

Synopsis
A low pressure system will move across the region today and this
evening bringing humid conditions along with showers and
scattered thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and
evening. There is the possibility some storms could become
strong to severe. It will be breezy across the area behind the
system for Thursday night and Friday. More wet weather expected
Saturday afternoon and night as another low pressure system
approaches and moves through.

Near term through tonight
As of 1030 am edt, weak shortwave ridging translating east
across the region is allowing for a period of partly-mostly
sunny skies for areas outside of the mid hudson valley and nw
ct, and should persist through late morning. Clouds should then
increase from the south and west, as weak shortwave across
central pa slides east, and convective debris from the west also
moves across the region.

Isolated showers thunderstorms are developing across NE pa and
south central nys around the northern periphery of shortwave
translating across pa. Some of this will likely reach the se
catskills, mid hudson valley and perhaps southern litchfield
county ct between 11 am and 1 pm. Additional isolated
showers possible thunderstorms may expand into the mohawk
valley capital region and NE catskills toward or just after
noontime.

Meanwhile, strong severe convective line entering western nys at
leading edge of apparent MCV over eastern lake erie. This
activity, at least in some form, should cross the region between
2 and 5 pm from west to east, although there remains some
uncertainty as to how strong the remnant line will be.

Previous discussion follows...

as of 645 am edt...

risk for strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon into the
evening with the main threat for damaging winds.

The storm prediction center has maintained a slight risk for severe
thunderstorms across the western most portion of the forecast
area with a marginal risk across the rest of east central new
york and general outlook for western new england.

Guidance continues to indicate a highly sheared environment
(0-6 km bulk shear of 60 knots) as a vigorous short wave
approaches during the peak heating of the day resulting in
strong heights falls across the area late in the day and this
evening. The region is expected to be in the favorable left
exit region of an upper level jet streak by late in the day. The
question is how unstable does the atmosphere get across the area.

Guidance continues to indicate there will be an instability
gradient across the region with MUCAPE of 500 to possibly 1000
j kg into the western most portion of the forecast area dropping
off quickly as you move eastward into western new england. Due
the highly sheared environment convection is expected to evolve
into both linear and cellular modes with the damaging winds,
hail, and even tornadoes possible especially to our southwest
across pa into central ny. The degree of instability realized
across the local area will determine how well the fast moving
storms maintain their strength and structure as they move into
and across the local area.

Chances for convection increase during the afternoon hours in
the warm sector of the system with the better chances for strong
to severe storms by late in the day into the evening hours.

Have continued with enhanced wording across much of east
central ny with gusty winds and small hail mentioned. It will
get humid today with dew points rising into the mid 50s to lower
60s. Expecting highs from the upper 60s to mid 70s. Southerly
flow will increase in the warm sector with gusts up to around 25
mph. With passage of the cold front winds will shift to the
west and be gusty with temperatures falling into the upper 40s
to upper 50s overnight.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
Friday will be breezy with northwesterly winds gusting up to
around 35 mph in the wake of the system. Temperatures will be
near seasonable levels for late may however the winds will make
it feel cooler. Mainly fair weather is expected with isolated
showers mainly in the morning across the higher terrain as we
are under cyclonic flow. Heights will begin to rise in the
afternoon with ridging building in across the region Friday
night and Saturday. A cooler Friday night with lows in the mid
40s to lower 50s.

The fair weather will be short-lived as another low pressure
system approaches. This system will not be as strong with the
surface low and its associated short wave passing farther to the
north close to hudson bay Saturday night. However, what is expected
is another round of showers beginning in the afternoon along
with some thunderstorms mainly during the evening hours. Highs
Saturday mid 60s to mid 70s with lows in the 60s Saturday night.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
The period starts out on Sunday with a cold front moving
eastward across the region and zonal flow aloft. Pwats forecast
to be lower than Saturday along with little upper level
support, so expecting only widely scattered showers. Given
sufficient heating, there would be enough instability to mention
at least a slight chance of thunderstorms. Will side more
towards the ECMWF with the cold front pushing through by
evening. Temps will be quite warm ahead of the front, with the
hudson valley possible reaching 80 or slightly higher. GFS has
another front wave moving through late Sunday, which appears to
be an outlier compared to other guidance.

Dry conditions expected Sunday night into Monday (memorial day),
as high pressure builds in from the west. Not much change in
temperature compared to Sunday, as upper level heights will
actually be rising, so we are forecasting slightly above normal
temps and comfortable humidity levels for memorial day.

As a fairly strong cyclone tracks NE across the upper great lakes
Monday night, a warm front will approach our area. This could
result in some showers developing late, especially for areas
north and west of albany. Models in good agreement indicating
our region getting into a warm sector on Tuesday, as the cyclone
tracks into SE canada. It will be increasingly warm and humid
in the warm sector. A potential pre-frontal trough approaching
from the west could produce scattered showers storms, especially
during the afternoon. Chances for showers thunder continues
Tuesday night as the pre-frontal trough moves through.

More unsettled weather is expected for Wednesday, as we remain
in a warm and increasingly unstable air mass. It will feel more
like summer with highs possibly into the 80s in the hudson
valley, with humid conditions. Diurnal convection looks
possible, especially if a cold front approaching from the west
gets close enough to organize showers storms.

Aviation 15z Thursday through Monday
A frontal system and an upper level disturbance will bring
showers and scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon to
early evening hours. Time frame for tsra will be from around
20z this afternoon to around 01z Friday. Amount of instability
is uncertain, so will continue to mention prob30 for thunder at
all TAF sites.VFR conditions should persist much of the 24 hour
taf period, although MVFR will occur within any tsra later today.

Winds will become southerly around 8-13 kt by later this
morning. Occasional gusts around 20 kt will also occur. Winds
will shift to the west-southwest this evening behind the frontal
system, then eventually northwest overnight.

Outlook...

Friday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Saturday: moderate operational impact. Breezy. Chance of shra... Tsra.

Saturday night: moderate operational impact. Likely shra... Tsra.

Sunday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Tsra.

Sunday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of shra.

Memorial day: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Monday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of shra.

Tuesday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Tsra.

Fire weather
Southerly winds with gusts up to around 25 mph this afternoon...

\northwesterly winds with gusts up to around 35 mph Friday...

humid conditions develop today with showers and scattered
thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon and evening. Mainly
fair weather Friday with minimum relative humidity values only
in the mid 40s to mid 50s during the afternoon. Another round of
storms expected Saturday afternoon and night.

Hydrology
Showers and scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening
as a low pressure system approaches and moves across the
region. Rainfall amounts of 1 4 to 1 2 an inch are expected with
locally higher amounts in some thunderstorms. Some ponding of
water in poor drainage, urban and low lying areas is possible.

The storms will be moving quite fast so no significant
hydrological impacts are expected at this time.

Another sound of wet weather is expected Saturday afternoon and
night with another fast moving low pressure system approaches
and moves across the region.

Please visit our advanced hydrologic prediction service ahps
web page for specific area rivers and lakes observations and
forecasts.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Iaa
near term... Iaa kl
short term... Iaa
long term... Jpv
aviation... Jpv
fire weather... Iaa
hydrology... Iaa


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TKPN6 5 mi56 min S 16 G 21 62°F 1019.2 hPa56°F
NPXN6 8 mi56 min S 11 61°F 1022 hPa54°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 66 mi56 min SSW 7 G 11 58°F 55°F1021.5 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY21 mi33 minSW 7 G 1510.00 miMostly Cloudy66°F53°F63%1019.2 hPa

Wind History from POU (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Kingston Point, Hudson River, New York
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Kingston Point
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Thu -- 05:25 AM EDT     4.13 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:29 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 12:04 PM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:10 PM EDT     3.42 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.71.42.43.33.84.14.13.62.81.81.10.50.30.61.32.12.83.23.43.32.721.41

Tide / Current Tables for Tivoli, Hudson River, New York
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Tivoli
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 05:55 AM EDT     4.38 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:29 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 12:34 PM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:40 PM EDT     3.63 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.61.12.13.13.84.24.44.13.42.41.50.80.40.411.92.63.23.53.63.22.51.81.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.