Monday, July23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rhinecliff, NY

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Sunrise 5:40AMSunset 8:24PM Monday July 23, 2018 7:24 AM EDT (11:24 UTC) Moonrise 5:10PMMoonset 2:22AM Illumination 80% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 418 Am Edt Mon Jul 23 2018
Today..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft this afternoon. Slight chance of tstms. Showers likely, mainly this morning.
Tonight..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Tue..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Wed..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 418 Am Edt Mon Jul 23 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. The waters will remain between weak low pressure to the west, and offshore high pressure building slowly westward. This will keep the waters under a prolonged period of southerly flow.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rhinecliff CDP, NY
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location: 41.94, -73.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 231015
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
615 am edt Mon jul 23 2018

Synopsis
A tropical air mass will remain in place through at least
Wednesday, as a frontal system remains west of the region,
while high pressure remains anchored across the north atlantic
ocean into new england. Weak disturbances tracking northward
will bring some showers and thunderstorms through midweek, with
the greater coverage expected today, and then again Wednesday.

The frontal boundary should move east of the region Thursday,
bringing some relief from the oppressive humidity levels.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 615 am edt, main band of moderate to heavy rain remains
across the southeast catskills into the eastern mohawk valley
and southwest saratoga county, and continues to drift
north northwest. Additional downpours, a bit more scattered in
coverage, continue across the capital region east into southern
vt western ma, and south through the mid hudson valley and nw
ct.

For today, the combination of persistent low level convergence,
and upper level shortwave energy tracking northward across
central pa ny should allow for numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms to continue through much of the day. Areal
coverage should become greatest near and just west of the hudson
river through the morning, as the low level convergence shifts
westward. With pwat's remaining near 2 inches, as well as wind
direction from the south southeast through a deep depth of the
lower atmosphere, locally heavy rainfall with some training
potential remains possible through today. Most models suggest
500-1000 j kg of MUCAPE for this afternoon, although higher
values of 1000-2000 j kg are possible in any areas which receive
breaks of sun, which may be across the western mohawk valley
and southwest adirondacks later this morning. Will keep mention
of isolated thunderstorms through the day, with heavy rainfall
being the main attribute accompanying any storms. Deep layer
shear will remain 25-30 kt, so should any embedded deeper
convection form, it could briefly organize enough for some
isolated gusty winds. Temperatures should reach the upper 70s to
lower 80s, although could be locally warmer if any prolonged
breaks of Sun develop. Dewpoints will remain in the lower 70s
for most lower elevations, thus remaining quite muggy through
the day.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Wednesday night
Tonight, the best low level forcing should continue shifting
westward, and with the loss of diurnal heating and lack of
significant forcing mechanism, expect showers isolated
thunderstorms to decrease in coverage shortly after sunset.

Otherwise, warm and humid with lows in the mid 60s to lower
70s.

For Tuesday, models suggest the best forcing and associated deep
moisture plume should shift west into central western nys, as
strong upper level ridging from the north atlantic builds
westward into new england. Will scale back pops into the
isolated hudson river valley, with scattered coverage to the
west and east. Thunder potential looks very low, ESP from the
hudson valley east, as mid level warming occurs with the brief
impingement of the upper level ridge. With some breaks of sun
expected, afternoon higher temperatures should reach the
mid upper 80s in lower elevations, with mid 70s to lower 80s
across higher terrain, and perhaps portions of the western
mohawk valley where more clouds may remain prevalent.

Tuesday night-Wednesday night, upper level height falls
overspread the region from west to east, as the frontal system
and associated deep tropical plume also move eastward. Pwat's
surge to around or over 2 inches, combined with forcing with the
approach of the remnant upper level trough. Showers and embedded
thunderstorms should increase from west to east late Tuesday
night, and become widespread Wednesday through Wednesday night,
with the potential for several slow moving bands of heavy
rain embedded thunderstorms occurring. The latest wpc day 3 excessive
rain outlook (for 12z wed-12z thu) has the entire region
(eastern ny western new england) within a slight risk for
excessive rainfall, with a moderate risk for portions of the
eastern catskills and extreme western mohawk valley. Flash
flooding will be possible, especially should any convective
elements train over any one particular area during this time. It
will remain warm and humid, with lows mainly in the mid
60s lower 70s, and highs generally mid 70s to around 80, limited
by extensive cloud cover and rain.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
The northern stream piece of the remnants of the upper energy and
associated upper trough axis currently extending from the great
lakes south to the gulf coast pushes east of our region through the
day Thursday. Mid level drying spreads east across our region but as
it does, scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of
the leading edge of the midlevel drying. There will likely be only
limited drying at the surface with the weakening upper energy and
still some semblance of a broad upper trough over our region. There
should be some periods of Sun Thursday outside of the scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Highs Thursday solidly in the 80s but
some mid 70s to around 80 in higher terrain.

Stronger upper energy approaches from southern canada and just north
of the great lakes by Friday and Saturday. A better defined cold
front is expected to track through the region sometime either Friday
or Friday night. The low level forcing and instability ahead of the
front will support more scattered showers and storms. There is some
disagreement in sources of guidance as the exact timing of the cold
front. So, keeping scattered showers and storms through Friday night
and isolated showers and storms Saturday.

Highs Friday well into the 80s except mid 70s to around 80 higher
terrain. Highs Saturday a couple of degrees cooler then on Friday.

There is loose agreement on another upper system approaching our
region from the west by Sunday, which would continue the chances for
isolated showers and storms. Highs Sunday in the upper 70s to lower
80s but a few mid 80s southern areas and lower to mid 70s higher
terrain.

Aviation 10z Monday through Friday
Fetch of deep moisture streaming from south to north will
persist through Monday. Areas of showers and isolated
thunderstorms will track north through the region through
Monday. Current area of showers on radar will affect all taf
sites through about 09z-10z. Indicating MVFR ceilings and
visibilities in the showers.

Any development of new showers and isolated thunderstorms is
very uncertain but other scattered activity through Monday
suggests keeping vcsh at all TAF sites and once showers
develop, they can be tracked and specific timing ofVFR ifr
conditions can be added later today.

Northeast to southeast winds at less than 6 kt through daybreak
will become south the southeast at 10 kt or less through this
morning, continuing through Monday afternoon and evening.

Outlook...

Tuesday night: high operational impact. Likely shra... Tsra.

Wednesday: high operational impact. Likely shra... Tsra.

Wednesday night: high operational impact. Definite shra... Tsra.

Thursday: moderate operational impact. Scattered shra... Tsra.

Thursday night: low operational impact. Isolated shra... Tsra.

Friday: moderate operational impact. Scattered shra... Tsra.

Fire weather
A tropical air mass will remain in place through at least
Wednesday, as a frontal system remains west of the region,
while high pressure remains anchored across the north atlantic
ocean into new england. Weak disturbances tracking northward
will bring some showers and thunderstorms through midweek, with
the greater coverage expected today, and then again Wednesday.

The frontal boundary should move east of the region Thursday,
bringing some relief from the oppressive humidity levels.

The rh values will lower 65 to 85 percent this afternoon,
then rise to 90 to 100 percent late tonight.

The winds will be south to southeast at 10 to 20 mph today, and
only diminish to 5 to 15 mph tonight.

Locally heavy rainfall is possible today into the mid week, with
the most widespread rainfall expected Wednesday and Wednesday
night.

Hydrology
Unsettled weather impacts the hydro service area hsa through
most of the week.

A slow moving cold front approaching from the west, along with
several weak disturbances moving northward within a very moist
airmass in place, will lead to scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms, some with locally heavy downpours for today.

Rainfall amounts will greatly vary from a tenth to a half an
inch in some spots with localized one inch or greater amounts
especially, south the capital region, and near the eastern
catskills.

The front may stay far enough west due to high pressure
building in from the western atlantic ocean for the better
coverage of showers and thunderstorms being west of the hudson
river valley Tuesday.

A potential will exist for training showers thunderstorms that
would result poor drainage flooding or an isolated flash flood
if heavy rainfall repeatedly occurs over the same areas of the
hsa Monday to Thursday time fame, with the best potential
Wednesday into Wednesday night as the frontal boundary slowly
approaches from the west and moves across the region.

The aly hsa river and stream levels are below normal and our
recent dry conditions are noted in the latest drought monitor
with d0-d1 levels. However, intense rainfall rates and repeated
locations getting large amounts of rainfall over the next 3 or 4
days will need to be monitored.

A drier air mass will likely build in toward the weekend.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs on our
website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Kl wasula
near term... Kl
short term... Kl
long term... Nas
aviation... Nas
fire weather... Kl wasula
hydrology... Kl wasula


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TKPN6 5 mi36 min Calm G 0
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 6 mi54 min 73°F 1017 hPa73°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 66 mi42 min SE 8.9 G 13
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 71 mi64 min SSE 16 G 19 75°F 1 ft72°F

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY21 mi31 minSE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy76°F72°F88%1017.2 hPa

Wind History from POU (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmE6SE7E7E11
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2 days agoCalmS3CalmSW65CalmSE64SE6S6S8SE7SE5S3SE4CalmSE3CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Kingston Point, Hudson River, New York
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Kingston Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:22 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:27 AM EDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:12 AM EDT     3.34 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:34 PM EDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:40 PM EDT     4.14 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.83.22.51.81.10.60.71.222.63.13.33.22.82.21.61.10.60.61.22.12.93.64

Tide / Current Tables for Tivoli, Hudson River, New York
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Tivoli
Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Mon -- 02:21 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 05:58 AM EDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:41 AM EDT     3.57 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:04 PM EDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.23.732.31.50.80.50.91.62.433.53.53.22.621.40.80.50.81.72.63.54.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.