Tuesday, November21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Niles, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 4:26PM Tuesday November 21, 2017 1:31 PM CST (19:31 UTC) Moonrise 10:22AMMoonset 8:07PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ741 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 930 Am Cst Tue Nov 21 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 9 pm cst this evening...
Rest of today..Northwest winds to 30 kt. Chance of rain. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Tonight..Northwest winds to 30 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt this evening. Mostly clear. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming west in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
LMZ741 Expires:201711212215;;749983 FZUS53 KLOT 211530 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 930 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ740>742-212215-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Niles, IL
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location: 42, -87.81     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 211742
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
1142 am cst Tue nov 21 2017

Update
928 am cst
a narrow band of precipitation will continue to move across
portions of northern illinois and northwest indiana through midday
and early afternoon. The drier air in place had limited overall
development for much of the early morning hours, however, have
really noted stronger development over the last 1-2 hours. Lead
shortwave energy ahead of a digging upper level trough as well as
surface reflection and associated boundary are in place, but the
main driving force for this precip is an area of strong deep
frontogenesis moving overhead. This has allowed this drier air to
be overcome, with light rain occurring across many locations in
northern illinois at this time. Cooling to the wetbulb while
strong CAA is in place is also allowing for a wintry mix to
develop. Although this mix should remain brief limited and
confined to rain sleet, additional cooling may also support some
snow. Don't anticipate any accumulation, as this forcing and
precip. Slide to the east into remaining areas in northern
illinois and northwest indiana through midday and the early
afternoon.

Rodriguez

Short term
107 am cst
through Wednesday...

the story of the next few days will be the temperature swings
along with occasional windy periods. Today we take the ride back
downward as deep low pressure across lake superior will steer a
cold front across the region today.

There is a lead shortwave across southern mn and several others
in the NW flow on the south side of the low driving some mid and
upper level cloudiness, but the focus will be on the deeper trough
axis across northern mn. Model guidance is in good agreement in
driving this energy southeastward today. We do not think this
will be a big deal for our area precip-wise, but several short
term guidance sources paint some light QPF with this wave noted by
some 850 mb fgen, compact omega rh signal as the front shifts
through. The main focus is along and southeast of chicago into
northwest indiana and across east central illinois, but some virga
or very light precip may fall across northeast il as well. Low
level positive energy forecast suggests enough low level warm air
lingers for rain to be the dominant p-type, but cannot rule out a
few snowflakes toward the tail end as the colder low level air
arrives. And the cold air will be noted after a mild Monday, as
the colder air will cruise on into north central illinois not long
after daybreak and spread southeast through the day.

The wave will quickly depart this evening, but the cold northwest
winds will remain in its wake. Lows will fall to near 20 in the
north, mid 20s southeast and in chicago. The surface ridge will
shift over the area on Wednesday. Winds will slacken some, low
level warm advection will ensue, and there should be plenty of
sun, but highs will struggle to reach 40.

Kmd

Long term
107 am cst
Wednesday night through Monday...

another much weaker wave will slide through wisconsin Wednesday
night with precip staying north as the ridge axis will stretch out
southeast of the area across the ohio tennessee valleys into the
mid atlantic. A secondary high will be in place over the area for
thanksgiving day, which will allow temps to recover to the lower
40s. This is still below normal, but with the high resulting in
likely our lightest wind day of the week, all in all pleasant
weather conditions for the holiday.

Friday will be a repeat of yesterday (Monday), as gusty southwest
winds will develop ahead of deepening low just north of lake
superior. The low level thermal fields support even warmer highs
than Monday, which were in the low to mid 50s area wide. The only
kicker will be there may be a bit more cloudiness as the upper
forcing is a bit farther south with this wave. Models still don't
paint much precip again and very well could end up dry, but have
some close bay to warrant not removing a model blend of low
chances. The cold air behind this system does not come slamming in
that quickly but gets reinforced through the weekend, thus highs
Saturday will reach the 40s, then only the 30s Sunday. High
pressure will mean weakening winds, dry conditions, and sun.

Kmd

Aviation
For the 18z tafs...

main forecast concern for the period will be wind trends with the
passage of a cold front.

A narrow band of pcpn is moving east of the terminals at issuance
time, with only some lingering light rain likely at gyy for
another hour or so. With the pcpn, cloud bases should lower to
lower endVFR, 4-5 kft for the remainder of the afternoon. In the
strong cold advection and pressure rises following the frontal
passage, the gusty swly winds are shifting to nwly and should
remain gusty to 20-25 kt through the remainder of the afternoon.

By arnd 00z, the gradient should relax as high pressure begins to
spread across the middle mississippi valley, allowing winds to
drop off overnight. As the colder, drier air filters across the
region, sky cover should diminish to mostly clear overnight with
no operationally significant cloud cover. As the high pressure
continues to spread across the region tomorrow, conditions should
be dry, with relatively light, westerly winds.

Marine
205 am... Deep low pressure just north of lake superior early this
morning will move into northern quebec tonight as it slowly
weakens. A trailing cold front will move across lake michigan this
morning shifting southwest winds to the northwest. The gales will
likely diminish toward 30kts with the front but a period of low
end gales is possible behind the front... Which may last into early
this evening... But confidence is low. A large area of high
pressure will build across the plains Tuesday night and then
extend east into the ohio valley Wednesday night. Strong low
pressure will move across ontario Friday and Friday night with a
tight southwest pressure gradient developing over the lakes
region. Southwest gales are possible again Friday morning into
Friday evening... With a cold front shifting winds northwest by
Saturday morning with gales still possible behind the front. Cms

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

In... None.

Lm... Gale warning... Lmz777-lmz779 until 3 pm Tuesday.

Small craft advisory... Il nearshore waters until 9 pm Tuesday.

Small craft advisory... In nearshore waters until 9 am Wednesday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FSTI2 9 mi92 min W 21 41°F
OKSI2 12 mi92 min N 7 43°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 14 mi42 min WNW 19 G 22 42°F 16°F
CNII2 15 mi32 min W 11 G 16 41°F 20°F
JAKI2 20 mi92 min W 7 42°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 24 mi44 min W 6 G 14 41°F 1010.3 hPa25°F
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 25 mi31 min NNW 19 G 26 39°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 41 mi32 min NW 25 G 31 36°F 1010.5 hPa (+2.7)
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 43 mi52 min W 9.9 G 19 42°F 1011.2 hPa

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Last
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G25
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G11
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G18
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NW19
G30
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G18
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G29
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G24
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G14
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G18

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL5 mi41 minWNW 1510.00 miOvercast40°F18°F41%1010.9 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL9 mi40 minNW 1310.00 miOvercast41°F19°F41%1011.2 hPa
Chicago, Chicago Midway Airport, IL15 mi99 minW 13 G 2110.00 miOvercast42°F26°F53%1010.3 hPa
Chicago / West Chicago, Dupage Airport, IL24 mi40 minWNW 17 G 2510.00 miOvercast36°F19°F52%1011.7 hPa

Wind History from ORD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW19
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G26
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G32
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G34
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1 day agoNW13W12W12W9W6W7W9W9SW11SW8SW9SW10SW7SW10SW10SW10SW12SW15
G20
SW11SW15
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2 days agoNW18
G24
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G28
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G25
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NW13NW14NW13NW12W10
G17
NW16
G22
NW12W14W9W13W16W12
G18

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.