Monday, July24, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Nevada, IA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:59AMSunset 8:42PM Monday July 24, 2017 3:49 PM CDT (20:49 UTC) Moonrise 6:25AMMoonset 8:40PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nevada, IA
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location: 42.02, -93.46     debug

Area Discussion for - Des Moines, IA
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Fxus63 kdmx 242003
area forecast discussion
national weather service des moines ia
303 pm cdt Mon jul 24 2017

Short term tonight through Tuesday
issued at 302 pm cdt Mon jul 24 2017
confidence: high
few concerns through Tuesday. Warm air advection begins to increase
across the region later this evening with some mid level clouds
expected mainly over the northwest north. Best thetae advection
should remain west northwest of our area through Tuesday as an
analyzed 12z h850 trough lifts northeast into western minnesota by
Tuesday morning. This will keep any thunderstorms in minnesota
through 00z Wednesday. Lows tonight will be on the rebound in the
south and west as winds swing back over to a more southerly
direction. The receding high will still influence northeastern and
eastern areas with light winds and cooler overnight lows. Again some
hint that light fog may develop in the valley areas of the cedar
river and perhaps the des moines river over eastern sections of our
forecast area though confidence remains low at this time as to a.

Areal coverage and duration. Tuesday the warmer air returns with
afternoon highs reaching the lower 90s in the south west with slower
recovery northeast where both cooler overnight lows and residual
morning cloud cover will slow afternoon heating for a bit longer.

Highs Tuesday will reach the lower 80s east to the upper 80s in the
west south. Heat indices may reach the mid 90s south and west
Tuesday with mid to upper 80s in the east. Lows Tuesday night will
be warmer and more humid with 70 to 75 common across the region.

Long term Tuesday night through Monday
issued at 302 pm cdt Mon jul 24 2017
Tuesday night through Thursday:
confidence: medium
though dewpoints have dropped and upper level moisture fields have
been displaced to the south southwest... The deep moisture is not all
that far away from iowa this morning. H850 subjective analysis shows
large area of +15c h850 dewpoints from eastern kansas southeast to
the southeast us along the boundary that moved through our area
Friday evening. The southwest us monsoonal moisture plume is also
evident... Though more or less confined to that area with little if
any teleconnection here at this time. As the northern stream trough
lifts northeast... The deeper moisture will be pulled back into the
central plains upper great lakes setting the stage for an active
period from late Tuesday night into Thursday. The models are coming
into better agreement regarding the timing evolution of the boundary
as it crosses iowa Wednesday. Both the GFS euro now suggest some
convection entering NW iowa by 12z... Spreading slowly east southeast
during the morning... Covering the northwest two-thirds by 00z
Thursday. At this point the area is outlooked for a slight risk of
severe weather. Judging by the parameter space... We will probably be
on the lower end of a slight risk unless something changes
dramatically in the next 24 hours. Bulk shear forecasts 25 to 35kts
in general through the event with the higher MUCAPE of 3000 to 3500
j kg out ahead of the main shortwave at h500 h700 which never really
amplifies much as it moves east. Most of the bufr soundings today
show tall skinny CAPE which suggests slower development throughout
the event. With all of the moisture return occurring in the next 24
to 36 hours aloft with rises in surface dewpoints... GFS forecast
pwats increase to 2 to 2.25 inches along the boundary. The models
continue to favor higher rainfall amounts from eastern iowa
southwest into missouri... Which makes sense given the better
instability expected between 21-03z in those areas. At this
point... Despite the generous available moisture through the
column... Rainfall totals may end up higher across the northeast east
and then south of the area as the late evening low level jet
increases into missouri and instability is also maximized east south
of our area. None the less... Up to 1 2 to 1.5 inches of rainfall is
possible... Possibly locally higher in some areas. Highs Wednesday
will reach the 80s to lower 90s south with afternoon heat indices
south into the mid to upper 90s. No headlines for heat are expected
due to both the shorter duration and lesser impactful heat indices
through the period.

Thursday night through Monday:
confidence medium to high
overall... .Confidence is on the high side except for Friday.

Once the front washes south southeast of iowa... Another
refreshing area of high pressure will build across the northern
plains and upper great lakes. Cooler and drier northeast flow will
set up driving h50 temperatures into the mid teens Thursday and
lower to mid teens Friday. Both the euro and GFS are indicating a
secondary weak upper level system passing over the area Friday.

This may create just enough instability through the column to
promote isolated showers or thunderstorms on Friday prior to
another high settling into the area for the weekend. For now
confidence remains limited regarding the coverage potential for
convection... So will leave the Friday forecast dry at the moment.

Over the course of the 4 day period... Highs will remain comfortable
in the 70s to lower 80s with only a warming trend indicated by
Monday. Little if any additional precipitation is forecast through
the period.

Aviation for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon
issued at 1236 pm cdt Mon jul 24 2017
main concern will be stratus remaining into the afternoon and
potential more stratus developing between 10-15z again Tuesday.

High pressure with boundary layer CU field lifting toVFR in most
cases and should beVFR all sites by 20z. Overnight light winds
again expected with stratus field again possibly filling into the
northeast with MVFR CIGS into pre-15z Tuesday. Aft 15z south winds
increase with gusts at kfod kmcw to near 20kt. Rev

Dmx watches warnings advisories

Short term... Rev
long term... Rev
aviation... Rev

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ames, Ames Municipal Airport, IA9 mi57 minno data10.00 miA Few Clouds79°F64°F60%1015.6 hPa
Boone Municipal, IA21 mi55 minESE 610.00 miPartly Cloudy79°F62°F58%1016.6 hPa
Ankeny Regional Airport, IA24 mi55 minN 010.00 miFair79°F60°F54%1016.6 hPa

Wind History from AMW (wind in knots)
Last 24hrNW13N12
1 day agoN8NW5NW5N7CalmW4W4NW4SW3W3W3CalmW5SW4W6W7W5NW11NW12N11NW10NW13NW11NW14
2 days agoE9NE6NE5E6SE5NE4E3CalmCalmN43N3NE7E9SE9SE11S9S5N6N8N13N13NE12NE8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Des Moines, IA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Des Moines, IA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.