Saturday, May26, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Evanston, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:19AMSunset 8:16PM Friday May 25, 2018 11:23 PM CDT (04:23 UTC) Moonrise 4:17PMMoonset 3:33AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ741 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 909 Pm Cdt Fri May 25 2018
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 15 kt. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 ft or less.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 10 kt becoming southeast in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 kt becoming southwest after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sunday..Southwest winds around 5 kt becoming southeast in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 1 ft or less.
LMZ741 Expires:201805261015;;533311 FZUS53 KLOT 260209 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 909 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ740>742-261015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Evanston, IL
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location: 42.03, -87.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 260134
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
834 pm cdt Fri may 25 2018

Update
834 pm cdt
pattern far more reminiscent of mid-summer than may with weak
synoptic forcing convection largely being driven by mcvs. One
weakening MCV from last night's convection is supporting a small
cluster of showers a couple t-storms across east central il,
including our far southern cwa. This activity is likely to weaken
over the next couple hours, likely dissipating by midnight as it
encounters drier and more stable air mass.

Upstream over NE ia and SW wi another area of convection has begun
to show some signs of mesoscale organization, with a qlcs bowing
toward se. The evening sounding from dvn sampled a modestly
unstable environment with CAPE around 1000 j kg, however boundary
layer is currently cooling and atmosphere is beginning to
stabilize. Could see another MCV develop in the bookend of this
developing bow, which could augment the weak ambient shear
environment and help this activity sustain itself as it pushes
into NW il mid-late this evening. Would generally expect a
weakening trend, particularly with the eastern extent of this line
as it encounters a more stable and worked over air mass. Goes-16
1-min IR imagery has shown a tendency for warming cloud tops and
weakening of the convection over SW wi and some cooling cloud tops
(intensification) over ia where instability is greater. Will
likely be a bit of battle of opposing forces the next several
hours as instability axis over eastern ia would tend to support
more of a southward propagation of this convection, while current
storm motion and the development of a MCV would tend to favor more
of a SE motion toward our cwa.

At this point, planning to increase pops far western CWA late this
evening to account for this activity potentially spreading in.

However, given the weaker instability in our area, suspect the
threat of more robust storms should remain west of our cwa, though
certainly lightning and heavy downpours look quite possible.

- izzi

Short term
253 pm cdt
through Saturday...

scattered shower and thunderstorm trends are the main forecast
concerns through this evening, with continuation of very warm
summer-like weather persisting into the holiday weekend.

Early afternoon surface analysis depicts weak low pressure over
western il, along a pseudo-warm front extending from along the
mississippi river into far southern il. This weak low, and an area
of thunderstorms over western il, were associated with a mid-
level short wave trough propagating across the region. The primary
low level focus for storms appears to be the warm frontal trough,
further enhanced by differential heating due to cloud cover, and
convective outflow. These storms should continue to move slowly to
the east-northeast across the forecast area through the remainder
of the afternoon and early evening hours, though instability
gradually decreases farther east. This, combined with weak mid-
level lapse rates and weak deep-layer shear, should allow for a
general decrease in intensity and coverage with eastward extent
into early evening as diurnal instability diminishes with sunset.

While SPC has stretched the day 1 marginal severe risk east to the
il in border, overall lack of deep shear and warm thermal
profiles should preclude much of a severe threat, with the main
concern being the potential for isolated wind gusts. Locally heavy
rainfall is likely a greater threat, given slow cell movements
and p-wats approaching 1.80".

High-res cam guidance continues to indicate some potential for
storms currently developing over southeastern mn to develop
southeastward into parts of northwest north central il after
midnight tonight. Forecast soundings, especially from the nam,
suggest substantial elevated CAPE may be present over northwest il
during the early overnight hours, though veering of the h8 winds
and overall lack of deep shear suggests that storms may struggle
to push too far south. 3km wrf, hrrr and arw runs all weaken these
storms as they spread into il during the pre-dawn hours, and have
generally limited mention to low chance pops for these.

Primary mid-level trough passes across the region early Saturday,
with weak height rises developing during the day. While low level
wind fields turn light westerly behind the trough, air mass
remains very warm and moist. While no significant forcing is
noted, an isolated shower or thunderstorm can't be ruled out
during the peak heating hours of the afternoon where weak low
level convergence of subtle mid-level vort may interact, however
most areas will likely remain dry. With at least partly sunny
conditions, temps should again reach the upper 80's around 90
degrees, with a weak lake breeze likely keeping areas along the
immediate lake michigan shore a little cooler.

Ratzer

Long term
231 pm cdt
Saturday night through Friday...

surface high pressure will be across the area Saturday night
while upper ridging to the west slides into the area into Sunday
night. Overnight lows will remain warm with mid and upper 60s
while the heart of the chicago metro see lows around 70, if not
warmer. With the upper ridge pushing in Sunday low and mid level
warming peaks with 850 mb temps around 20c. This supports low 90s
with a few mid 90s possible given that sunshine should be
abundant. Limiting factor from reaching mid 90s may be weak low
level winds. This weak flow will also allow a lake breeze to
develop which should provide some relief from the hottest temps
near the lake. Main question will be how high temps peak before
some modest cooling into the mid upper 80s in the afternoon. Peak
heat index values should be around 95 away from the lake. The
upper ridge broadens for Monday with surface high pressure still
in place so may not see much change from Sunday and may need to
bump high temps up a couple degrees similar to the forecast for
Sunday. Expect either a weak easterly flow on the west side of the
high or a lake breeze to develop keeping lakeshore areas cooler.

The upper ridge starts shifting east Tuesday and an upper trough
will move east across the northern plains. The current sub
tropical low is expected to move into the gulf coast states by
Wednesday will have an impact on pattern evolution and may phase
the northern plains trough. Quiet a few things need to occur
before mid week so confidence in details is low but the area may
get into some precip chances as early as Tuesday and could
continue through mid week. Am fairly confident that a warm
pattern, though not as warm as the next few days, will continue
with highs generally in the 80s. The pattern may favor an easterly
flow or lake breeze development so lakeshore areas look to be
cooler through much of the week.

Mdb

Aviation
For the 00z tafs...

vfr conditions expected through the forecast period. S SW winds
will remain generally under 10kts at all sites. A weak lake breeze
should pass ord mdw late Saturday afternoon into the early
evening. At rfd, a cluster of tsra currently over far southeast mn
is expected to remain just west of the terminal, but a few showers
may brush the terminal between 03-07z.

Kluber

Marine
231 pm cdt
south to southwest winds will prevail across the open waters
through the weekend with the strongest winds occurring into this
evening. A weaker flow pattern will allow winds to ease Saturday
and Sunday and will also favor the development of onshore flow
across the illinois and indiana nearshore waters each day. A weak
front drops down the lake later Monday bringing at least a
temporary shift to northeasterly flow. After that the pattern
becomes less certain with the sub tropical system currently off
the yucatan peninsula moving into the gulf coast states early next
week. This may interact with a trough moving across the northern
plains but this is not certain. Do not foresee any major wind
producing systems affecting the lake but wind speed and direction
details from Tuesday onward may change.

Mdb

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

In... None.

Lm... None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FSTI2 4 mi143 min WNW 8 79°F
45174 7 mi33 min WSW 3.9 G 5.8 70°F 56°F1 ft64°F
OKSI2 9 mi143 min WNW 1 G 2.9 81°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 10 mi33 min SSW 18 G 19 74°F 64°F
CNII2 13 mi23 min S 7 G 12 76°F 63°F
JAKI2 18 mi143 min W 2.9 G 4.1 80°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 22 mi53 min WSW 8 G 12 70°F 1009.5 hPa65°F
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 24 mi43 min WSW 4.1 G 6 76°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 39 mi43 min S 8.9 G 12 76°F 1009.5 hPa
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 39 mi83 min 77°F 1008.5 hPa (+0.7)
45170 43 mi33 min WSW 7.8 G 12 70°F 61°F1 ft62°F
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 46 mi33 min S 21 G 24 78°F 58°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL12 mi31 minSW 410.00 miA Few Clouds78°F64°F64%1008.6 hPa
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL12 mi32 minSW 910.00 miOvercast77°F64°F64%1008.3 hPa
Chicago, Chicago Midway Airport, IL17 mi30 minSW 610.00 miOvercast76°F66°F72%1008.1 hPa

Wind History from PWK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S4S6SW8SW8SW8SW10
G16
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SW6SW3W8SW6SW4NW5W3SW4
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S8S7--S7
G15
S6CalmS10--E8SE7E7SE6SE3CalmS3
2 days agoCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE6E8SE7E6E7E4NE3E4CalmE3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.