Thursday, May25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Evanston, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:19AMSunset 8:16PM Thursday May 25, 2017 11:04 AM CDT (16:04 UTC) Moonrise 5:34AMMoonset 8:07PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ741 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 946 Am Cdt Thu May 25 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 4 pm cdt this afternoon...
Rest of today..North winds 15 to 20 kt. Partly Sunny. Waves 3 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt. Partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 ft occasionally to 7 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft after midnight.
Friday..East winds 5 to 10 kt. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Friday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 kt. Chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
LMZ741 Expires:201705252130;;186073 FZUS53 KLOT 251446 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 946 AM CDT THU MAY 25 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN WAVES ARE PROVIDED AS A RANGE OF SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH IS THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES, ALONG WITH THE AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 10 PERCENT OF THE WAVES WHICH WILL OCCASIONALLY BE ENCOUNTERED. LMZ740>742-252130-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Evanston, IL
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location: 42.03, -87.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 251135
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
635 am cdt Thu may 25 2017

Short term
307 am cdt
through Friday...

trough and upper low responsible for the cool and unsettled
weather this week is finally moving out of the area. Should see
cloudiness gradually decreasing through the day as heights rise
and subsidence and mixing gradually take their toll. The addition
of some sunshine and heart of the cold pool moving east should
allow temps to rebound nicely toward, if not into, the lower 70s
today. Gradient favors north winds which should allow the lake to
quickly exert its influence and pop a lake breeze with temps
stead slowly falling through the 50s near the lake this afternoon.

As our current upper low moves out into the atlantic maritimes the
upper flow across the CONUS should quickly flatten out, becoming
zonal for a time Friday into Saturday. The zonal flow means very
low amplitude waves which guidance continue to struggle with
leading to lower than average forecast confidence wrt precip
chances. The NAM and GFS continue to bring a shortwave through
Friday afternoon with associated chances of showers and perhaps a
storm, though both models have backed off on QPF compared to runs
last night. The ECMWF hints at a weak ripple, but QPF in the ecmwf
is minimal. Maintained chance pops for Friday, but thinking that
if any precip that does occur wouldn't be particularly impactful
or long lasting.

- izzi

Long term
307 am cdt
Friday night through Wednesday...

over the weekend, look for a transition from a zonal flow to
another long wave trough and associated closed low digging south
into the great lakes. One potentially more significant shortwave
looks to get squeezed eastward through the zonal flow ahead of the
digging trough on Saturday. This should result in significant
amount of convection near and just north of the primary baroclinic
zone which is forecast to be well to our south. There is a high
likelihood that one of more mcvs could become the dominant
players in precip placement Saturday afternoon through Saturday
night, which could ultimately keep the majority of the precip to
our south. Assuming the mvcs don't overwhelm the synoptic
shortwave and cut off northward moisture transport into our area,
then one of our better precip threats this weekend looks to be sat
night as synoptic S W passes across the region.

Sunday looks like to be dry and mild with probably enough of a
westerly gradient to preclude any lake cooling on the il side. As
it looks now, Monday should start dry, but with upper low and
associated cold pool aloft digging south into the area it looks
like a decent shot of diurnally driven convection in the area
Monday afternoon into the early evening. Doesn't look like a
wash-out, but Monday afternoon looks like it could be the weekend
day with the best chance of daytime rainfall.

Because of differences in models in handling convectively enhanced
features, resulting in different timing and tracks of shortwaves,
blended model guidance paints pops over the area much of the
weekend. In the morning weather story, plan to message the weekend
forecast in a manner that stressed the majority of the weekend
with be dry despite some the threat of rain looming most of the
time.

Heading into Tuesday and Wednesday look for a continuation of
somewhat below average temperatures and some small chances of
afternoon evening showers and perhaps a storm as chilly upper
trough looks to remain anchored over the region.

- izzi

Aviation
For the 12z tafs...

dry conditions in place this morning, and expect these dry
conditions to continue through the period. Ceilings still varying
across the terminals this morning, especially as a more solid area
of lower ceilings have moved west back across the area. Think
conditions will generally be MVFR this morning, but with a period
of ifr ceilings possible for a time at the start of the period.

Don't expect this to last too long, with an overall improving
trend likely through midday and the afternoon. Then expectVFR
conditions to return later today, with ceilings eventually
scattering out. North northwest winds continuing this morning and
although winds should stay just west of north this morning, there
could be some varying wind direction right around due north by
mid late morning. This is before winds eventually turn more
northeast and stay this way later this afternoon. Light and likely
varying winds then expected this evening, before winds turn out
of the east early Friday morning.

Rodriguez

Marine
311 am cdt
low pressure continues to be situated to the southeast of the
lake this morning, while northerly winds are occurring over much
of the lake. Although slightly lower over the north half half,
speeds are generally in the 15 to 25 kt range. Do also think there
are likely gusts to 30 kt also still occurring, mainly over the
south half. These persistent stronger winds have allowed waves to
build across the south half, with conditions hazardous for small
craft in place. Expect these similar winds to persist for most of
the morning, even possible gusts up to 30 kt. Hazardous conditions
will also continue, and likely persist slightly longer today and
this evening. Then a diminishing trend is expected this afternoon
as this low finally departs to the east and a weaker pattern over
the lake settles in. This diminishing trend will then continue
tonight into Friday as high pressure moves across the region.

Rodriguez

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... Beach hazards statement... Ilz006-ilz014 until 7 pm Thursday.

In... Beach hazards statement... Inz001-inz002 until 10 pm Thursday.

Lm... Small craft advisory... Il nearshore waters until 4 pm Thursday.

Small craft advisory... In nearshore waters until 10 pm Thursday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FSTI2 4 mi125 min N 11 53°F
45174 7 mi35 min 14 G 18 51°F 51°F4 ft49°F
OKSI2 9 mi125 min N 8 55°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 10 mi45 min N 20 G 22 53°F 51°F
CNII2 13 mi35 min N 11 G 15 55°F
JAKI2 18 mi125 min N 13 55°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 22 mi53 min NNW 9.9 G 14 53°F 1002.8 hPa53°F
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 24 mi85 min N 13 G 16 56°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 39 mi85 min NNW 17 G 21 49°F 1002.7 hPa
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 39 mi65 min N 13 G 15 56°F 1003.4 hPa (+0.7)
45170 43 mi35 min NNW 16 G 19 48°F 52°F5 ft47°F
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 46 mi45 min NNW 20 G 21 48°F 48°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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N12
G16
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NE6
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N1
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G11
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G13
SW6
G11
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G8

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL12 mi73 minN 1010.00 miOvercast58°F53°F84%1003.4 hPa
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL12 mi74 minN 10 G 1810.00 miOvercast59°F51°F75%1002.9 hPa
Chicago, Chicago Midway Airport, IL17 mi72 minNNW 1210.00 miOvercast58°F52°F81%1002.7 hPa

Wind History from PWK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE13
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N14
G26
N18
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N12
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N8N7N7N9N9N9N9N8N8NW8N12N12N10
1 day agoSW6SW5W4S3SW3S4SE3E7CalmE3SE4CalmCalmN4E3NE7NE4NE4N5NE7NE6N9N9NE12
G19
2 days agoSW11
G21
S16
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W12
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SW12S6S8SW9SW8S6SW5S6S6SW8SW8SW13
G17
SW5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.