Wednesday, May22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Evanston, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:22AMSunset 8:12PM Wednesday May 22, 2019 8:09 AM CDT (13:09 UTC) Moonrise 11:56PMMoonset 8:31AM Illumination 87% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ741 Expires:201905221500;;273387 Fzus53 Klot 221154 Aaa Nshlot Nearshore Marine Forecast...updated National Weather Service Chicago/romeoville Il 654 Am Cdt Wed May 22 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10 Percent Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered. Lmz740>743-221500- Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor-calumet Harbor To Gary- 654 Am Cdt Wed May 22 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Today..Southeast winds 20 to 25 kt becoming south this morning then increasing to 30 kt this afternoon. Cloudy this morning then becoming mostly Sunny. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft.
Tonight..South winds 15 to 25 kt becoming southwest 10 to 20 kt after midnight. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft after midnight.
Thursday..West winds 10 to 20 kt. Slight chance of showers in the morning. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thursday night..North winds 5 to 10 kt becoming northeast after midnight. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
LMZ741


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Evanston, IL
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location: 42.03, -87.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 221134
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
634 am cdt Wed may 22 2019

Short term
338 am cdt
through Thursday night...

showers and scattered thunderstorms from overnight should be
clearing the eastern edge of the area toward daybreak. The warm
front associated with this activity is a little tough to pick out
in the sfc obs but likely runs from central iowa across central
illinois as we write. During the morning this front will lift
across the forecast area and support the return of a warmer and
more humid airmass by this afternoon, along with gusty southerly
winds. The strong winds will be aided by deep mixing during the
afternoon, but there does not appear to be much support for
convective development due to a capping inversion above the mixing
level, relatively warm temperatures aloft, and lack of forcing.

The picture for tonight and Thursday is looking a bit different than
it did a day ago, but the afternoon discussion and recent spc
outlooks have addressed this nicely. A cold front associated with
the deep surface low lifting across the plains toward lake superior
still is expected to drop through the area, but instead of the
resulting thunderstorm activity being favored during the daytime
Thursday it now appears to be focused in the overnight hours
tonight. Supporting factors include shortwave disturbances climbing
up the west side of an upper level ridge, together with considerable
moisture and temperature advection on the nose of a strong low level
jet. Forecast soundings suggest a small potential for severe
weather early in the period, most likely strong winds, but a
transition to more of a heavy rainfall profile as the event
progresses.

Thursday now is looking drier but still warm as the frontal zone
pushes the better moisture to our south ahead of the front. Lows
Thursday night likely will be a few degrees cooler than tonight,
with lower dewpoints and less cloud cover.

Lenning

Long term
338 am cdt
Friday through Tuesday...

the evolution for Friday is looking similar to previous forecasts,
with Thursday's frontal zone stalled to our south and then lifting
back north as a warm front ahead of the next low pressure system
developing over the plains. Models suggest the best chances for
thunderstorms would be across the northern or northwestern portions
of the forecast area Friday, likely due to better frontal
convergence nearer to the low and away from the center of the upper
ridge, along with cooler midlevel temperatures and better support
aloft from the right entrance region of an upper jet. SPC has the
area in a day 3 slight risk as of the 0742z update.

Confidence on the timing and location of additional convection
decreases into the weekend. It is possible there could be a period
of quieter weather at some point Friday night as the area again
moves into the warm sector behind Friday's advancing warm front and
the next cold front. Saturday then could be another active day as
the cold front drops through the area. Alternatively, late Friday
night could see the active weather if the front advances more
quickly, as we are seeing with the activity expected tonight.

The remainder of the weekend into early next week looks to bring
more of the same: a warm and moist airmass ahead of a fluctuating
frontal boundary pushing through, stalling out, then lifting back
north through the area. This would remain the focus for convective
development, along with shortwave energy ejecting out of the western
conus upper trough and over the broad southeast CONUS ridge where we
will be positioned along its northern periphery.

Lenning

Aviation
For the 12z tafs...

634 am... Forecast concerns include...

MVFR ifr CIGS this morning.

Strong gusty south southwesterly winds late morning thru sunset.

Scattered thunderstorms late evening early Thursday morning.

Low MVFR CIGS have spread across the entire area with ifr cigs
west of the chicago terminals and patchy lifr CIGS further west.

These CIGS will continue through mid morning and then lift and
scatter and end times may need some adjustment. Its possible
some brief ifr CIGS may develop at ord mdw but confidence is low.

Southeast winds 10-15kt will turn southerly this morning and
increase in speed and gusts. Eventually wind direction is expected
to become south southwest. Gusts into the 30kt range this
afternoon still look on track. Winds will diminish this evening
and turn westerly overnight.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible tonight... Perhaps by mid
evening across northwest il and then mainly overnight for the
chicago terminals. Confidence for timing remains low and continued
prob mention. As trends emerge... Thunder timing should be able to
be better pinned down and likely to a smaller time period. Cms

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... Beach hazards statement... Ilz014 until 10 am Wednesday.

Beach hazards statement... Ilz006 until 1 pm Wednesday.

In... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory... Nearshore waters until 9 pm
Wednesday.

Visit us at http: weather.Gov chicago (all lowercase)
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45174 7 mi30 min E 7.8 G 12 4 ft1016.5 hPa
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 10 mi40 min SE 11 G 13 53°F 53°F
CNII2 13 mi25 min SE 7 G 8.9 54°F 51°F
JAKI2 18 mi130 min S 5.1 G 8.9 56°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 22 mi40 min SSE 6 G 11 55°F 1011 hPa55°F
45186 24 mi30 min ESE 7.8 G 9.7 47°F 47°F3 ft
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 24 mi30 min S 5.1 G 8 47°F
45187 32 mi30 min ESE 7.8 G 12 46°F 46°F3 ft
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 39 mi40 min S 5.1 G 8.9 56°F 1012.2 hPa
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 39 mi70 min ESE 5.1 G 6 46°F 1011.5 hPa (+1.7)
45170 43 mi30 min SSE 9.7 G 14 54°F 51°F2 ft52°F
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 46 mi40 min SE 12 G 16 55°F 52°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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E11
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NE4
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL12 mi78 minESE 510.00 miOvercast54°F50°F87%1011.4 hPa
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL12 mi79 minSSE 710.00 miOvercast53°F51°F93%1010.8 hPa
Chicago, Chicago Midway Airport, IL17 mi77 minSSE 710.00 miOvercast55°F52°F90%1011.1 hPa

Wind History from PWK (wind in knots)
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E9E11
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SW7CalmE8SE13
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4SE5S6
1 day agoNW14NW10N9NW9NW6N64E9NE5E56NE5NE4CalmCalmCalmNW3NE3NE7NE7E7E8E5SE7
2 days agoSW15
G26
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G31
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W15
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W12
G20
W8W7W8W7
G18
W7
G16
NW8NW9
G19
NW12

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.