Thursday, July19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Evanston, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:31AMSunset 8:23PM Thursday July 19, 2018 12:59 AM CDT (05:59 UTC) Moonrise 1:05PMMoonset 12:10AM Illumination 37% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ741 Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 917 Pm Cdt Wed Jul 18 2018
Rest of tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 10 kt becoming southeast after midnight. Mostly cloudy. Waves around 1 ft.
Thursday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms mid to late afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 25 kt. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 3 to 5 ft after midnight.
Friday..South winds 15 to 20 kt becoming southwest in the afternoon. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft in the afternoon.
LMZ741 Expires:201807191030;;695154 FZUS53 KLOT 190217 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 917 PM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ741-742-191030-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Evanston, IL
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location: 42.03, -87.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 190544
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
1244 am cdt Thu jul 19 2018

Short term
223 pm cdt
through Thursday...

another quiet weather day today as weakly anticyclonic flow aloft
builds into the region and high pressure drifts over the western
great lakes. After diurnal cumulus dissipate this evening, expect
mostly clear skies tonight with passing upper-level cirrus. Min
temps tonight will be similar to last night, with lows in the
mid upper 50s inland to the low mid 60s in the core of the urban
heat island.

Dry conditions should continue through Thursday morning ahead of a
shortwave trough closed low moving SE into the upper ms valley.

Surface winds will increase through the morning, with some sse gusts
at or above 20 mph during the afternoon. Notable isentropic ascent
and moisture transport ahead of this trough will support isolated to
scattered convection lifting NE across the CWA Thursday afternoon
into the evening. Chances for more widespread convection will be
limited by insufficient shear and instability along with marginal
capping for most of the area. There is the potential for a couple
thunderstorms to develop from lake county il through eastern cook
county ahead of the main band of precip due to an area of increased
convergence from a lake-enhanced backing of the winds.

Kluber

Long term
223 pm cdt
Thursday night through Wednesday...

the main feature of interest for the Thursday night through
Saturday period is the upper level disturbance now in place across
the dakotas, per the latest water vapor imagery. Forecast
guidance continues to support strengthening and a closing off
mid- level circulation into Thursday as the disturbance digs into
the upper midwest. This evolving mid-level low is then likely to
gradually shift eastward across northern il and southern lake
michigan late Friday into Saturday.

With this system expected to impact the area over the next few
days, expect cloudy and seasonably cool temperatures into the
weekend, with period chances for showers storms. By far the best
chances for more widespread showers and storms during this period
will be Thursday night into Friday as the mid-level system begins
to approach the area. While there will be a threat for some
stronger storms Friday afternoon, particularly over my east
central il continues and into portions of northwestern indiana, it
appears the best combination of deep layer shear and instability
will remain south of the area, limiting the overall severe
threat. Some moderate to briefly heavy down pours will be possible
with these storms, however, as precipitable water values increase
aoa 1.8" into Friday.

While the chances for showers will be lower for the weekend, with
presence of the mid upper low overhead, some isolated to
scattered showers, and perhaps a couple of thunderstorms will
continue to be possible at times through the weekend. This in
combination with a good amount of cloud cover should result in
highs only in the upper 70s to around 80 both Saturday and Sunday.

Any of these showers over the weekend could also produce some
heavy downpours as high deep layer moisture continues to support
abnormally high precipitable water values around 1.8".

It appears this upper level system will finally move out of the
area by early next week, and this should set up a couple of
dry days with more Sun across the area. Expect temperatures to
warm back to around seasonal normals into the mid 80s.

Kjb

Aviation
For the 06z tafs...

a light easterly wind andVFR dry conditions expected this
morning. Anticipate these general conditions to continue through
midday and early afternoon, though anticipate winds to steadily
increase out of the southeast during this time. Expect showers and
thunderstorm to develop well west of the terminals today, and
likely track east towards the terminals this afternoon. Do think
they will be on a diminishing trend, with coverage and intensity
likely lowering and have continued mention of showers in the tafs.

By this evening, additional chances for precip are expected with
the anticipated pattern likely producing waves of scattered
development towards the end of the forecast period. Confidence
lower with coverage, and have only included a vcsh at this time.

It is possible for coverage to be higher, along with a few
thunderstorms.

Rodriguez

Marine
223 pm cdt
a slow moving storm system is expected to shift from the northern
plains tonight into the upper midwest on Thursday, then across
southern lake michigan by Friday night. This system is expected to
produce periods of showers and thunderstorms on the lake,
especially Thursday night through Friday, with additional
scattered showers storms possible over the weekend. Winds over the
lake will also be impacted by this system. Expect a period of
elevated southeasterly winds (15-25 kt) to develop over the lake
late Thursday and Thursday night as the surface low approaches
from the west. This may result in 4 to 6 foot waves along portions
of the il shores Thursday night into Friday and the issuance of a
small craft advisory. The winds will then shift northeasterly by
late Friday over the northern half of the lake and then northerly
lake-wide for Saturday and Sunday. This could produce another
period of 4 to 6 foot waves for the weekend over southern lake
michigan, which would support another small craft advisory. Winds
and waves should subside early next week as the system shifts out
of the region.

Kjb

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

In... None.

Lm... None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FSTI2 4 mi119 min E 2.9 70°F
45174 7 mi29 min E 5.8 G 5.8 72°F 73°F1 ft59°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 10 mi39 min E 6 G 7 72°F 58°F
45177 10 mi119 min 74°F1 ft
CNII2 13 mi29 min E 7 G 7 70°F 56°F
JAKI2 18 mi119 min E 5.1 G 8 72°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 22 mi41 min ENE 5.1 G 7 71°F 1017.2 hPa60°F
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 24 mi79 min SE 5.1 G 6 71°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 39 mi59 min SE 5.1 G 5.1 70°F 1017.6 hPa (+0.3)
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 39 mi79 min Calm G 0 67°F 1018.3 hPa
45170 43 mi29 min E 1.9 G 3.9 66°F 67°F1 ft59°F
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 46 mi39 min ENE 2.9 G 2.9 65°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL12 mi67 minN 010.00 miFair67°F57°F73%1017.7 hPa
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL12 mi68 minE 310.00 miMostly Cloudy71°F54°F55%1017 hPa
Chicago, Chicago Midway Airport, IL17 mi66 minE 510.00 miOvercast71°F59°F66%1016.6 hPa

Wind History from PWK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalm4E76NE7E9E6E8NE9E8E7NE8E6E4CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoNW5NW5NW4NW5NW5N3NW4N5NE6NE9N7NE7NE8NE9NE10NE10E9NE9NE9NE9NE6NE4NE3Calm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmW3NW3CalmNW4NW6W5W6W7N10CalmE8CalmNE6NW8N73NE6CalmCalmNW4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.