Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Harbor, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 4:52PM Thursday November 15, 2018 7:06 PM PST (03:06 UTC) Moonrise 1:32PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 56% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ330 1126 Pm Pdt Fri Aug 9 2013
.thunderstorms over the waters... Thunderstorms over the waters have weakened but isolated storms will continue overnight. Mariners can expect gusty and erratic winds with the storms along with frequent lightning. If caught on the open water stay below deck if possible...keep away from ungrounded metal objects. Lat...lon 4397 12411 4396 12411 4400 12413 4284 12455 4242 12440 4225 12441 4205 12428 4184 12422 4181 12580 4198 12579 4220 12589 4370 12576 4386 12565 4399 12562 4403 12414
PZZ300 206 Pm Pst Thu Nov 15 2018
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Moderate northwest swell mixed with choppy wind driven seas will continue through late this evening, making for conditions hazardous to small craft across the marine waters. Conditions north of cape blanco will improve briefly overnight through Friday afternoon as swell diminishes. South of cape blanco, steep choppy wind driven seas will continue as the thermal trough maintains gusty northerly winds through Saturday morning. Conditions will improve across all areas late Saturday into Sunday with winds becoming southerly and relatively benign seas expected through at least Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Harbor, OR
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location: 42.05, -124.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 160015
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
414 pm pst Thu nov 15 2018
the long term and aviation sections have been updated...

Short term An upper level ridge is strengthening over the
region through Friday and will persist into early next week. This
will bring a stable and dry air mass to the area. With the stable
conditions expect periods of low clouds and fog, especially in
the overnight and morning hours in the umpqua and coquille
valleys. Low clouds that formed overnight in the umpqua have
persisted today due to the stable conditions and little mixing.

Expect continued clouds conditions across the umpqua into tonight.

High pressure is bringing an inversion with poor mixing and light
surface winds to inland valleys and is resulting in stagnant air.

This will continue through at least Saturday. Stagnant air
conditions in inland valleys may allow pollutants to accumulate
at the ground level and reductions in air quality at times. An air
stagnation advisory is in effect through at least Saturday for
valleys in douglas, josephine, jackson, klamath and lake counties
(please see the nwpmfr for details.). Also the oregon department
of environmental quality has issued an air quality advisory for
southwest oregon.

At the surface a thermal trough is building along the southern
oregon coast. This will bring breezy to gusty north winds across
the coastal waters and along portions of the southern oregon
coast. Also expect some gusty winds over the coastal mountains
tonight into Friday. Then models continue to show that the thermal
trough will build north Friday night into Saturday, resulting in
breezy and gusty winds affecting the southern oregon cascades.

These breezy offshore easterly winds may continue Saturday night
into Sunday over the mountains, especially in the southern oregon
cascades.

Friday night into Saturday, a shortwave trough to expected to
move down the east side of the ridge. This may bring some clouds
into eastern areas but expect continued dry weather. Somewhat
cooler temperatures are expected for areas east of the cascades
on Saturday through Sunday. Also the shortwave may bring a slight
increase in mixing and an improvement in stagnant air conditions.

However, any improvement may be brief with high pressure
strengthening over the area Sunday and persisting through Monday.

Long term Monday, nov 19th through Thursday night, nov 23rd...

unusually dry conditions, by november standards, are expected to
continue Monday and Tuesday. Model guidance continues to vary
dramatically for the Tuesday night through thanksgiving day time
frame, with the ECMWF indicating storm activity and related
precipitation moving in, while the GFS and the majority of it's
ensemble members show dry weather continuing. Confidence is
increasing in precipitation from a frontal system moving across the
area thanksgiving night through Friday, as both models and their
ensemble members support such a solution. However, while the ecmwf
brings a series of fairly strong fronts through the forecast area
with significant rain and mountain snow from the middle of next week
into next weekend, the GFS shows the forecast of the frontal
activity to be later in the week and lighter, with most of the
energy moving into california and lesser moisture and dynamics
shearing out north of the area. -lutz

Aviation For the 16 00z tafs...

tonight through Friday morning we expect fog and low clouds to be of
greater coverage and duration across the forecast area due to a 5-10
degree rise in forecast dewpoints. However, from the coast range and
roseburg northward and westward northeast winds will be increasing
above the boundary layer, so this may delay and or disrupt fog
formation some in that areas. Overall, expect a mix of ifr to lifr
to develop across the valleys between 06z through 18z Friday
morning, probably last to dissipate in the roseburg area. Btl

Marine Updated 200 pm pst Thursday 15 november 2018... Moderate
northwest swell mixed with choppy wind driven seas will continue
through late this evening, making for conditions hazardous to small
craft across the marine waters. Conditions north of CAPE blanco will
improve for a brief period overnight through Friday afternoon as
swell diminishes. South of CAPE blanco, steep choppy wind driven
seas will continue as the thermal trough maintains gusty northerly
winds through Saturday morning. Small craft conditions will
gradually spread north to around reedsport Friday afternoon into
Saturday as the thermal trough moves north and weakens. Conditions
will improve across all areas late Saturday into Sunday with
winds becoming southerly and relatively benign seas expected through
at least Tuesday. Br-y

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... Air stagnation advisory until noon pst Saturday for
orz021-023>031.

Ca... None.

Pacific coastal waters... Small craft advisory until 10 am pst Saturday for pzz356-376.

Small craft advisory until 10 pm pst this evening for
pzz350-370.

Small craft advisory from 4 pm Friday to 10 am pst Saturday for
pzz350-370.

Cc


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA 15 mi26 min N 3.9 G 5.8 51°F 51°F1019.5 hPa50°F
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 21 mi36 min E 1 G 1.9 48°F 51°F1018.8 hPa
PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR 49 mi48 min NW 12 G 14 53°F 50°F1020.8 hPa

Wind History for Crescent City, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brookings, Brookings Airport, OR2 mi70 minN 010.00 miFair51°F42°F71%1021.3 hPa
Crescent City, Jack McNamara Field Airport, CA18 mi70 minN 06.00 miFog/Mist49°F46°F90%1019.5 hPa

Wind History from BOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4CalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day ago44E3E3E3E4E4--CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3W4W643SE3CalmE3
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4CalmE5CalmSE5CalmE3CalmCalmE43CalmSE4SE6S4CalmCalmS6

Tide / Current Tables for Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon
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Brookings
Click for Map
Thu -- 06:03 AM PST     5.68 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:54 AM PST     First Quarter
Thu -- 07:07 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:43 AM PST     3.72 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:31 PM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:47 PM PST     5.21 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:55 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 11:47 PM PST     1.33 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.42.1344.95.55.75.55.14.64.13.83.73.94.34.85.15.254.43.62.821.5

Tide / Current Tables for Crescent, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.