Monday, September24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Harbor, OR

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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 7:07PM Monday September 24, 2018 10:08 AM PDT (17:08 UTC) Moonrise 6:27PMMoonset 5:31AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ330 1126 Pm Pdt Fri Aug 9 2013
.thunderstorms over the waters... Thunderstorms over the waters have weakened but isolated storms will continue overnight. Mariners can expect gusty and erratic winds with the storms along with frequent lightning. If caught on the open water stay below deck if possible...keep away from ungrounded metal objects. Lat...lon 4397 12411 4396 12411 4400 12413 4284 12455 4242 12440 4225 12441 4205 12428 4184 12422 4181 12580 4198 12579 4220 12589 4370 12576 4386 12565 4399 12562 4403 12414
PZZ300 847 Am Pdt Mon Sep 24 2018
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..A strong thermal trough will bring gales and hazardous seas mainly south of port orford through tonight. The thermal trough will gradually weaken starting Tuesday and winds will ease some, but remain hazardous to small craft through mid-week. Seas will remain steep and hazardous from fresh swell through at least Wednesday night, gradually subsiding below small craft advisory levels Thursday. A pattern change is possible this weekend with an upper low approaching from the southwest.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Harbor, OR
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location: 42.05, -124.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 241548
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
848 am pdt Mon sep 24 2018

Discussion
No updates are needed this morning.

Dry east wind flow continues across the forecast area, strongest
along and near the curry county coast. The red mound raws has been
gusting in 37-43mph range since midnight with rhs between 18 and
34%. The dry air mass will continue to get even drier through
Wednesday before a transition to cooler and less dry weather
occurs.

Some patchy frost also did occur on the west side this morning,
primarily in the applegate valley, and also in portions of the
rogue valley.

The very dry air mass will allow for some very warm days, which
are likely to come within a few degrees of records this work week.

Model guidance is then indicating a possibility of rain as early
as this weekend, but there remains a lot of uncertainty due to run
to run model variability and differences in track with the
associated upper level trough moving inland from west of
california. The majority of the guidance does indicate a better
possibility of rain early next week with a secondary trough
moving. However, since that is 7 to 8 days from now and we've seen
many a model forecast rain chance dissolve as we close in on that
lead time, we're proceeding with caution in getting hopes too
high in the forecast. As we get later into the fall, however, the
chances of one of these rainfall chances resulting in rain in the
gages certainly increases per climatology. -lutz

Aviation For the 24 12z tafs...VFR will prevail across the area
through tonight. There may be a brief exception this morning along
the coast north of CAPE blanco. It's possible a brief period of MVFR
vsbys develop shortly before sunrise this morning, but confidence
wasn't high enough to maintain it in the koth taf. Offshore flow
will keep the areaVFR, and another round of breezy afternoon winds
is expected today. Br-y

Marine Updated 230 am pdt Monday 24 september 2018... The thermal
trough will strengthen today as inland conditions warm, and another
round of gales and hazardous seas are expected this afternoon and
evening. The thermal trough will gradually weaken starting Tuesday
and winds will ease some, but remain hazardous to small craft
through mid-week. Seas will remain steep and hazardous from fresh
swell through at least Tuesday night, gradually subsiding
below small craft advisory levels beyond Wednesday night.

Late week and into the weekend, models are showing a change in the
pattern with an area of low pressure approaching from the southwest,
and disrupting the thermal trough setup. Confidence is low in the
details at this point in the forecast, but there is the potential
for a shift to stronger south winds by the weekend. Br-y
fire weather... Updated 330 am pdt Monday, 23 september 2018...

low relative humidities and northeast to east winds gusting up to 35
mph are expected over the coastal mountains now through Tuesday
morning. The 06z NAM 925mb and 850 mb winds indicate the strongest
winds to occur this morning with slightly weaker winds but poorer
humidity recovery for Tuesday morning. A trend of weaker wind but
poorer recovery is likely to continue for Wednesday morning, then
nearly as dry on Thursday morning with weaker winds. The 06z nam
and 00z GFS support the idea that easterly winds on Tuesday
night Wednesday morning will peak at gusts of around 20 mph, which
would be below the red flag criteria of 25 mph. With the lack of
a 'slam dunk' certainty of critical conditions on Wednesday
morning, we will wait for one more model run, and allow
coordination with affected partners on the day shift before a go
or no-go decision on issuing an extension of the current red flag
warning that is now in effect through Tuesday morning.

Otherwise, diurnal temperature ranges will be wide in valleys with
hot and dry conditions through Friday and overnight inversions in
place. The stubborn blocking pattern is forecast to finally break
down Friday night with a closed upper low swinging in close to the
coast Saturday. This would bring higher humidity and cooler
temperatures for the weekend into early next week. The strength and
track of the low are very much in question, with the highest
uncertainty regarding the probability of rain showers and any risk
of thunderstorms. There is general model agreement that the
probability will only be in the slight chance to chance category
through the weekend. There is higher uncertainty beyond the weekend,
but that also includes some possibility of a more widespread rain
event. -dw

Prev discussion issued 530 am pdt Mon sep 24 2018
discussion... There is high certainty regarding the general
conditions through Friday. An upper level rex block is in place
over the eastern pacific ocean with a ridge offshore from the
pacific northwest and a trough far offshore from california. The
two features will oscillate but remain in the same vicinity into
Thursday. Model confidence is increasing that late in the week the
closed low offshore will track northeastward into northern
california.

The result will be a strong warming and drying trend, except for
near normal temperatures at the immediate coast north of
brookings. It has been more than a couple of weeks since inland
high temperatures were quite as high as they will be Tuesday
through Friday. West side valley highs in the 90s will be common
with 80s in east side valleys. East side valley morning lows will
still be chilly, mainly in the 30s. Along with the warming and
drying, there are gusty easterly winds over the coastal mountains
that support the red flag warning pdxrfwmfr . Overnight, a peak
gust at red mound has reached 43 mph and 26 mph at quail prairie.

These winds will likely not be quite as strong tonight into
Tuesday morning, but relative humidity levels now generally at 35
to 45% will be even drier.

With the short term forecast already looking quite appropriate, a
majority of effort was spent on the change to cooler temperatures
and higher relative humidity to come late week into early next
week. There are still important model differences, between a
growing general consensus that the initial trough will be of weak
to moderate strength, more notable for cooler temperatures and
gusty winds during the weekend than a risk of precipitation.

Still, there will be a slight chance to chance of showers, and
perhaps even a risk of thunderstorms. Of higher uncertainty is the
track and strength of the next trough. It is likely to move east
to southeast out of the gulf of alaska. The 00z ECMWF remains
stronger colder wetter than the 00z GFS and has a track into our
area. Meantime, the GFS solution would have the trough continue
moving longitudinally down the california coast with a much more
limited risk of precipitation. It suffices to say that there is
some possibility for a widespread wetting non-thunderstorm
generated rain on day 7 next Monday, which would be the first in
our area since early june.

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... Red flag warning until 11 am pdt Tuesday for orz619-620.

Red flag warning from noon today to 11 am pdt Tuesday for
orz618.

Ca... Red flag warning from noon today to 11 am pdt Tuesday for
caz280.

Pacific coastal waters...

- small craft advisory until 5 am pdt Wednesday for
pzz350-356-370-376.

- gale warning until 5 am pdt Tuesday for pzz356-376.

- hazardous seas warning from 5 am Tuesday to 5 am pdt Wednesday
for pzz370-376.

Btl mas sbn


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA 15 mi79 min N 27 G 31 54°F 50°F9 ft1014.1 hPa (+0.0)
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 21 mi45 min N 8.9 G 15 67°F 51°F1014 hPa
PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR 49 mi39 min N 18 G 25 59°F 49°F1019.2 hPa

Wind History for Crescent City, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brookings, Brookings Airport, OR2 mi73 minN 1010.00 miFair69°F24°F18%1016.8 hPa
Crescent City, Jack McNamara Field Airport, CA18 mi73 minN 108.00 miFair59°F43°F56%1014.9 hPa

Wind History from BOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr5NE7N9NE7
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1 day agoCalmS3SE3W7NW13
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2 days agoW3CalmW4W7SW5S3SE7SE6S5SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3

Tide / Current Tables for Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Crescent, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.