Sunday, July22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Harbor, OR

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Sunrise 5:55AMSunset 8:44PM Sunday July 22, 2018 5:48 AM PDT (12:48 UTC) Moonrise 3:43PMMoonset 1:12AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ330 1126 Pm Pdt Fri Aug 9 2013
.thunderstorms over the waters... Thunderstorms over the waters have weakened but isolated storms will continue overnight. Mariners can expect gusty and erratic winds with the storms along with frequent lightning. If caught on the open water stay below deck if possible...keep away from ungrounded metal objects. Lat...lon 4397 12411 4396 12411 4400 12413 4284 12455 4242 12440 4225 12441 4205 12428 4184 12422 4181 12580 4198 12579 4220 12589 4370 12576 4386 12565 4399 12562 4403 12414
PZZ300 234 Am Pdt Sun Jul 22 2018
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..The thermal trough will weaken and shift inland today. As a result, north winds will weaken. Meanwhile, diminishing seas will remain steep beyond about 3 nm from shore. From Monday onward, the thermal trough will not be strong, but northerly winds will remain moderate with the highest seas likely to be steep offshore and south of cape blanco. Winds will be weakest near shore south of pistol river with a dominant fresh northwest swell.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Harbor, OR
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location: 42.05, -124.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 221045
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
345 am pdt Sun jul 22 2018

Discussion Satellite imagery shows marine clouds hugging the
coast down to CAPE blanco with north bend still not reporting any
low clouds. It will be tricky there this morning as onshore flow
is still weak but there is a chance low clouds could drift inland
a bit early in the morning.

Thunderstorm chances return to part of the forecast area this
afternoon from the south. Moisture and instability are expected to
move into siskiyou county with emphasis from the marble mountains
east-northeast into the medicine lake and NW modoc county by early
afternoon. By mid to late this afternoon problem areas expand
north into the siskiyou mountains, the southern oregon cascades
and southern klamath and lake counties with highway 140 in
southern oregon as the approximate northern boundary - although
there is a chance some storms could spread closer to but not quite
make it into crater lake. By this evening, the ridge axis shifts
slightly to the east with activities starting to shift into
central lake county. Guidance however still paints enough mid
level moisture across the marble mountains so much of siskiyou
county should still see lightning strikes into this evening.

There is one other concern this evening. The GFS is spreading
faint mid level moisture north into the rogue valley this evening.

While thunderstorms indices don't look that impressive there,
there is a chance for isolated strikes in southern and SE jackson
county this evening as well. At this time we feel fairly confident
that most of josephine county, northern jackson county and douglas
county will miss these storms.

The thunderstorm threat does diminish but is not gone on Monday
and Tuesday. There will still be weak shortwave energy moving up
from the south and some instability and moisture. We've kept
slight chances mainly from the siskiyous south and cascades east.

Regarding nighttime thunderstorms, we haven't identified any
periods that are favorable enough to add them to the forecast.

Sunday night there is enough mid level moisture east of the
cascades but instability is missing.

Next... Heat. An upper ridge building from the southeast will bump
our clear air temperatures up to 10 degrees above normal. In
areas where we expect the heaviest smoke, we've kept forecast
temperatures below guidance for now. Other areas, like much of the
east side, mount shasta, and the umpqua basin, we have kept in
line with guidance. An excessive heat watch remains in effect
because we're expecting a long-duration heat wave, and the impacts
from the heat could be exacerbated by smoke. -fb

Aviation For the 22 12z tafs... Wildfire smoke continues over most
of the inland valleys west of the cascades and south of the umpqua
divide. Lower visibilities along with MVFR conditions will exist
near these fires today. There's a chance visibilities could be
reduced further tonight (ifr) as smoke settles into the valleys.

At the coast north of CAPE blanco, onshore flow is expected to
increase enough for marine stratus or some fog to form. Have lowered
ceilings to ifr 12z. Conditions should improve around or after 16z.

East of the cascades and inland north of the fires,VFR will prevail
for the TAF period, though some light MVFR smoke is possible closer
to the cascades.

Isolated thunderstorms will develop in portions of northern
california and over the east side late this afternoon evening. Have
included vcts in the klamath falls TAF between 00 and 04z. -fb

Marine Updated 230 am pdt Sunday 22 july 2018... The
strong thermal trough of the past couple of days is expected to
weaken and shift inland today. Northerly winds will weaken and steep
seas will gradually subside into Monday. However, residual wind
waves and a moderate north to northwest fresh swell will persist.

This will make for choppy seas with a dominant period of only 7 to 8
seconds. Areas in close to the coast, perhaps within about 3 nm from
shore, should see seas lower to around 4-5 feet by this evening, but
again, we expect a fairly short period, so smaller boats will
probably still get tossed around a bit.

From Monday onward, we aren't expecting a strong thermal trough to
develop. The general theme will be to maintain northerly winds
averaging 10-20 kt beyond about 3 nm from shore with waves mostly in
the 5-7 foot range, although with a very gradual increasing trend
Monday afternoon into Tuesday... And possibly through Thursday. In
the outer waters south of CAPE blanco, this will be sufficient for
advisory conditions Monday afternoon at least through Tuesday
evening. There could be a southerly eddy at times, especially
nearshore around brookings where winds and seas will be a little
calmer. -spilde dw

Fire weather Updated 300 am pdt Sunday 22 july 2018... The primary
fire weather concern today is thunderstorms. The best day for
thunderstorm coverage will be Sunday, when available moisture,
surface heating, and an upper level trigger will combine for the
most optimal conditions.

High level haines indices will be 5 over the west side, but mid-
level haines may be 6 in some locations. Ongoing fires may become
plume dominated at times.

Moisture will gradually diminish Monday and Tuesday, and there isn't
a trigger Monday and a weak one Tuesday. Therefore, expect isolated
thunderstorm coverage at best on those days. By Wednesday, the
southwest u.S. High will be far enough west to cut off the monsoonal
moisture, so thunderstorms are not in the forecast from Wednesday
on. However, it will be hot and dry inland Monday through Thursday,
especially in smoke-free areas. -fb

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... Red flag warning from 11 am this morning to 11 pm pdt this
evening for orz621>625.

Excessive heat watch from Monday morning through Wednesday
evening for orz023-025.

Excessive heat watch from Monday morning through Wednesday
evening for orz024-026.

Ca... Red flag warning from 11 am this morning to 11 pm pdt this
evening for caz280>282-284-285.

Excessive heat watch from Monday morning through Wednesday
evening for caz080>082.

Pacific coastal waters... Small craft advisory until 11 pm pdt this evening for
pzz356-376.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 11 pm pdt this
evening for pzz350-356-370-376.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas from 2 pm Monday to 11
pm pdt Tuesday for pzz350-356-370-376.

Fjb fjb fjb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA 15 mi59 min NW 1.9 G 3.9 53°F 55°F7 ft1017.1 hPa (+0.0)
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 21 mi37 min N 1.9 G 1.9 51°F 59°F1017.1 hPa
PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR 49 mi31 min NW 11 G 17 54°F 46°F1017.5 hPa

Wind History for Crescent City, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brookings, Brookings Airport, OR2 mi53 minNE 39.00 miOvercast53°F50°F89%1018.7 hPa
Crescent City, Jack McNamara Field Airport, CA18 mi53 minN 06.00 miFog/Mist51°F48°F92%1017.5 hPa

Wind History from BOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmSE33SW4S3S4S6SE5SE6S8SE6CalmS3CalmCalmCalmNW4CalmCalmCalmCalmNE3
1 day agoN3CalmCalm3S5Calm4S6S7S6SE6S7S7S5SE3E3CalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalm4SW3S43S6S5SE6SE7SE8S4S6SE4CalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalm--

Tide / Current Tables for Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon
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Brookings
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Sun -- 02:12 AM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 03:01 AM PDT     0.62 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:00 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:22 AM PDT     4.70 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:22 PM PDT     2.76 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:42 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:39 PM PDT     6.80 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:45 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.91.70.90.60.91.62.63.54.34.74.64.23.73.12.82.83.34.25.26.16.76.86.35.3

Tide / Current Tables for Crescent, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.