Monday, March25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Harbor, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 7:32PM Monday March 25, 2019 2:53 PM PDT (21:53 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 9:18AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ330 1126 Pm Pdt Fri Aug 9 2013
.thunderstorms over the waters... Thunderstorms over the waters have weakened but isolated storms will continue overnight. Mariners can expect gusty and erratic winds with the storms along with frequent lightning. If caught on the open water stay below deck if possible...keep away from ungrounded metal objects. Lat...lon 4397 12411 4396 12411 4400 12413 4284 12455 4242 12440 4225 12441 4205 12428 4184 12422 4181 12580 4198 12579 4220 12589 4370 12576 4386 12565 4399 12562 4403 12414
PZZ300 238 Pm Pdt Mon Mar 25 2019
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Small craft advisory winds will diminish this evening, but high and steep seas will persist into Tuesday morning. Weak high pressure will bring improving conditions late tonight into Tuesday evening. Another front will move through Wednesday, and low pressure will remain over the waters into Thursday. This will produce another round of stronger southerly winds with steep to very steep seas that will persist into Friday morning. Weak high pressure will build Friday, then weaken Saturday, and winds and seas will be relatively light Friday afternoon through Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Harbor, OR
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location: 42.05, -124.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 252147
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
247 pm pdt Mon mar 25 2019

Short term A band of precipitation associated with a front is
located along and east of the cascades. This band will gradually
push east this afternoon into this evening. Satellite and radar
imagery shows numerous showers moving into the coast associated
with the upper low offshore. These showers will move inland today
through this evening. Showers will decrease in coverage and
intensity in the nighttime hours, with best chances for
continuing showers over portions of northern california, lake
county and along the coast. Snow levels this afternoon are
generally 4500 to 5000 feet or higher except in the mount shasta
area where snow levels have been down to 2500 feet today. Snow
in the mount shasta area will gradually decrease late this
afternoon, then expect periods of showers this evening and
tonight. Winter storm warnings and advisories remain out for
portions of siskiyou county through late this afternoon. Please
see the wswmfr for details. Gusty south winds will continue ahead
of the front for areas east of the cascades this afternoon,
decreasing early this evening. Strongest winds are across eastern
klamath county, lake county and over the higher mountains of the
warners in modoc county. A wind advisory remains in place for the
strong gusty south winds. Please see the npwmfr for details.

On Tuesday, models are in good agreement showing a relative break
in the active weather over the area. Moist southwest flow and the
remnants of the frontal boundary over northeast california and
southeast oregon will bring a chance for showers, mainly across
portions of northern california, eastern klamath county, lake
county with a slight chance for showers in the cascades and
siskiyous. Areas west of the cascades in southwest oregon are
expected to be dry on Tuesday.

Another low pressure system will move around the upper low
offshore and is forecast to bring a front towards the coast
Tuesday night. Models are showing good agreement with this front
moving into the coast late Tuesday night and inland Wednesday
morning and afternoon. This frontal system is somewhat similar to
todays and is expected to bring another round of rain and snow.

However, the overall wind and moisture levels are slightly lower.

Additionally, models indicate slightly higher snow levels in the
mount shasta area. Current models support snow levels around 4500
to 5000 feet across the CWA on Wednesday except higher snow levels in
modoc and lake counties and lower snow levels down to 4000 feet
in the mount shasta area. Snow impacts are likely to be limited to
the higher mountain passes with mainly light snow expected over
the passes in the cascades and siskiyou summit and moderate snow
possible above 4000 feet near mount shasta. Winds will be breezy
to gusty out of the south ahead of this front, including in the
shasta valley, southern rogue valley and over the mountains but
winds on Wednesday are not expected to be as strong as todays
front.

The front will lift north late wedensday afternoon. The surface
low will remain offshore and will send a second front towards the
area late Wednesday, with a band of precipitation expected to
move into the coast and inland Wednesday evening and night.

Long term Thursday morning through Monday night... Low pressure
offshore that has been sending fronts and shortwaves into the
area during the short term will finally be making it's way inland
at the start of the extended. Expect widespread showers on
Thursday with snow levels hovering between 3500 and 4500 feet,
raising to around 5000 feet by the afternoon. Instability
parameters look favorable for thunderstorms on Thursday (negative
li's of -2 to -3, CAPE ~550-800 j kg), so expect widespread
showers with some isolated thunderstorms during the late morning
and afternoon. There will likely be some small hail as well as
some gusty outflow winds with these showers thunderstorms. Showers
will likely continue overnight Thursday into Friday as the upper
level low moves in overhead and then exits the area Friday
afternoon or evening. Upper level ridging builds in behind the
trough, and there are some timing differences in how quickly this
ridge builds and showers get shut off Friday. The ec maintains a
faster solution than the gfs, and would have showers coming to an
end by Thursday evening. The GFS on the other hand holds on to
showers into Friday evening as it is slower to move the upper
level low through and keeps the ridge axis further west than the
ec. Have gone with a blend, and kept shower potential around
through Friday afternoon.

Once showers clear Friday, ridging will be in control Friday night
through Sunday morning, so expect dry conditions with seasonable
temperatures during that time. The next system looks to move into
the area Sunday afternoon evening. There are timing and positional
differences with the next front, and given that this front will be
running into the ridge, it's likely that the front will weaken as it
does so. Would not be surprised to see the models trend drier with
this system as we move closer in time. This lends to low confidence
in timing and details of this system. However, long term outlooks
indicate increased chances for above normal precipitation so the
pattern is likely to remain active. Br-y

Aviation For the 25 18z tafs... A front is now moving through the
area. Winds are gusty ahead of the front but otherwise mostlyVFR
conditions prevail, except along the south coast and around mount
shasta, where there are areas of ifr CIGS vsbys with higher terrain
obscured. Conditions will clear toVFR behind the front, except for
areas of MVFR CIGS over the coastal waters and along the coast,
which will persist into Tuesday morning. Areas of ifr MVFR CIGS will
develop late tonight over some of the west side valleys, persisting
into Tuesday morning.

Marine Updated 200 pm pdt Monday 25 march 2019... Small craft
advisory winds will diminish this evening, but high and steep seas
will persist into Tuesday morning. Weak high pressure will bring
improving conditions late tonight into Tuesday evening.

Another front will move through Wednesday, and low pressure will
remain over the waters into Thursday. This will produce another
round of stronger southerly winds with steep to very steep seas
that will persist into Friday morning. Weak high pressure will build
Friday, then weaken Saturday, and winds and seas will be relatively
light Friday afternoon through Sunday.

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... Wind advisory until 5 pm pdt this afternoon for orz029>031.

Ca... Winter storm warning until 5 pm pdt this afternoon above 4000
feet in the for caz080.

Winter weather advisory until 4 pm pdt this afternoon for
caz082.

Winter storm warning until 5 pm pdt this afternoon above 4500
feet in the for caz082.

Winter storm warning until 5 pm pdt this afternoon for caz083.

Pacific coastal waters... Small craft advisory until 11 am pdt Tuesday for pzz350-356.

Small craft advisory until 11 am pdt Tuesday for pzz370-376.

Cc


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA 15 mi34 min SW 16 G 19 51°F 52°F1016.8 hPa51°F
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 21 mi42 min 49°F 53°F1016.6 hPa
PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR 49 mi66 min SSE 20 G 23

Wind History for Crescent City, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brookings, Brookings Airport, OR2 mi58 minS 11 G 1610.00 miLight Rain47°F43°F86%1017.6 hPa
Crescent City, Jack McNamara Field Airport, CA18 mi58 minSSW 16 G 265.00 miRain Fog/Mist49°F45°F86%1016.4 hPa

Wind History from BOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6SE7S334CalmCalmCalmCalmNE4NE3S44SE55533CalmS7SE73SE6S11
G16
1 day agoNW765W5W4CalmNE3NE3CalmCalm3CalmCalmCalmSE3Calm3354E45S76
2 days agoS9S96S5SE5SE4SE3SE33CalmCalmSE4SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm43SE345

Tide / Current Tables for Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon
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Brookings
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:06 AM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:12 AM PDT     7.11 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:12 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:02 AM PDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:18 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:24 PM PDT     5.47 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:35 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:51 PM PDT     2.32 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.15.56.67.16.964.52.91.40.3-00.31.22.53.84.95.45.44.843.12.52.32.7

Tide / Current Tables for Crescent, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.