Thursday, January24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bridgman, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 4:54PM Thursday January 24, 2019 4:14 AM CST (10:14 UTC) Moonrise 10:21PMMoonset 10:36AM Illumination 87% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LMZ080 Lake Michigan From Michigan City In To St. Joseph Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Port Washington To North Point Light Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From North Point Light To Wind Point Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wilmette Harbor Il To Michigan City In 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Whitehall To Pentwater Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Grand Haven To Whitehall Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Holland To Grand Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From South Haven To Holland Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From St. Joseph To South Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 253 Am Cst Thu Jan 24 2019 Sheboygan Wi To Pentwater Mi South...
.heavy freezing spray warning in effect from this evening through late Friday night...
Today..West winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 30 kt. Freezing spray. Scattered snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 ft building to 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
Tonight..Northwest winds to 30 kt with a few gale force gusts to 35 knots possible. Heavy freezing spray. Scattered snow showers. Waves 10 to 14 ft occasionally to 18 ft.
Friday..Northwest winds to 30 kt becoming west 15 to 25 kt. Heavy freezing spray. Scattered snow showers. Waves 8 to 11 ft occasionally to 14 ft subsiding to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Friday night..West winds 10 to 20 kt becoming northwest. Heavy freezing spray in the evening, then freezing spray overnight. Chance of snow. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Saturday..West winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southwest 15 to 25 kt. Freezing spray. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Saturday night..West winds to 30 kt. Heavy freezing spray. Chance of snow. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Sunday..Northwest winds to 30 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt. Heavy freezing spray. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Monday..Southeast winds to 30 kt becoming east. Heavy freezing spray. Snow. Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft.
LMZ080 Expires:201901241630;;841214 FZUS63 KMKX 240853 GLFLM OPEN LAKE FORECAST for Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 253 AM CST Thu Jan 24 2019 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON Lake Michigan. Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will move across the region today, with gusty west to northwest winds expected behind it this afternoon into Friday, slowly weakening Friday night. A few gusts to gale force will be possible this evening into tonight. High pressure of 29.5 inches will build into the region tonight and will be centered well to the southwest. Very cold air will arrive behind the cold front as the high builds in. This airmass will combine with the winds to bring heavy freezing spray this evening into Friday night. A Heavy Freezing Spray Warning is in effect for this period across Lake Michigan. More rounds of gusty winds, building waves, and heavy freezing spray will be possible at times this weekend into early next week, as the very cold airmass lingers across the region. LMZ080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-241630-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bridgman, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 42.05, -86.84     debug


Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kiwx 240858
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
358 am est Thu jan 24 2019

Synopsis
Issued at 358 am est Thu jan 24 2019
an arctic front will cross the region this evening and bring light
snow showers... Gusty winds... And much colder temperatures for
Friday. Highs on Friday will remain around 10 degrees with morning
wind chill values of 10 below to 20 below zero. 1 to 3 inches of
lake effect snow is also expected in southwest michigan tonight with
patchy blowing snow due to the gusty winds. Temperatures only
moderate slightly through early next week before dropping again.

There will be several chances for light snow through early next week
with the best chance for accumulations on Monday.

Short term (today through Friday)
issued at 358 am est Thu jan 24 2019
main focus of short term will be on arctic frontal passage this
evening and the ensuing cold temps and lake effect snow tonight into
tomorrow. Parent shortwave currently diving out of central canada
and associated cold front will cross our area during the early
evening. Deep layer moisture is severely limited so not expecting
any substantive snow accumulation with the synoptic portion.

However... Lower levels will be very unstable in strong CAA regime
with convective ascent supersaturation intersecting the dgz. This
should be enough to generate some sct snow showers with some minor
vis reduction travel impacts during the evening commute. (for most
of the area... Impacts will not arrive until around 6pm or later.)
attention then turns to the lake effect portion. Far from a superb
setup with westerly winds, extreme dry air entrainment (upstream
surface dewpoints below -10f), and dgz increasingly below cloud
deck. There is a brief window during the mid-late evening where
inversion heights are decent (around 7 kft) with active dgz and
modest instability as measured by theta-e lapse rates but the window
is very small (roughly 23-05z). After that... Inversion heights drop,
dry air entrainment increases, and cloud temps drop below -20c.

Think we will struggle to get much above an inch or two during this
event. Normally would not even consider an advisory but the winds
will be gusting up to 35 mph given efficient mixing and could lead
to some additional impacts with patches of blowing snow and reduced
vis due to small flake size. Also will be flirting with wind chill
advisory criteria Fri am even in berrien and cass so will hold
with winter weather advisory and just make some minor adjustments
to timing. Any residual lake effect will taper off by late fri
morning and bulk of the day should be dry.

Final item of note is the cold wind chill temps for Fri am. 850mb
temps drop below -20c for much of the area by late tonight and
latest guidance still shows temps dropping to around zero by fri
morning. More pressing issue will be winds of 15-25 mph making it
feel like -10 to -20f. Have therefore issued a wind chill advisory
for entire cwa. Eastern and northern fringes may be marginal given
lake clouds and slightly warmer temps but still briefly touch
criteria and prefer not to get too cute delineating such a minor
difference in apparent temps.

Long term (Friday night through Wednesday)
issued at 358 am est Thu jan 24 2019
temps moderate over the weekend but only slightly as 850mb temps
remain hovering in the mid teens below zero... Yielding highs in the
upper teens to mid 20s. Two weak clipper systems will impact the
area over the weekend... One Friday night and another one Saturday
night Sunday. Forcing is incredibly weak in each case with very
subtle shortwaves embedded in overall fast, cyclonic flow aloft.

Positive side to resident cold air is that freezing drizzle will not
be a concern and anticipate just some very light (<1") snow accums.

Slightly more possible near lake mi but lake effect parameters are
marginal at best and only for brief time periods.

Still keeping an eye on much more robust shortwave for mon. Dynamics
and moisture associated with this wave are potentially much better
but models continue to struggle on strength and track... Which will
of course dictate both amount duration of QPF and precip types.

Slight trend toward a more northern track warmer solution but still
incredible spread in ensemble (and deterministic for that matter)
members. This is not surprising considering origins of this short
wavelength feature are still well out in the north pacific and
unlikely to have any certainty for several more days.

What is a bit more certain and potentially more impactful is the
degree of cold air expected during the middle of next week. 00z gfs
and ECMWF continue to show extremely cold 850mb temps of around -35f
directly overhead by Wed of next week. Though exact magnitude of
cold air remains questionable at this time range... There is
consistency in overall longwave hemispheric pattern favoring much
below normal temps... And possibly the coldest we have seen in quite
some time.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1253 am est Thu jan 24 2019
MVFR CIGS to persist through most, if not all the period for both
sites as colder air continues to stream in with even colder shot
of air arriving by tonight. Fzdz being reported at kfwa with loss
of ice in the clouds at present. This should be short lived,
winding down in the next couple of hours, but still requiring
addition to taf. Scattered light snow showers will be possible
this afternoon at both sites, but coverage and impacts at both
airports appears to low for now to have in taf. By 00z fri, lake
effect snow showers and increasing winds will arrive and may
impact ksbn the remainder of the period. Have limited vsby impacts
at this point as think worst may remain north of the site.

Iwx watches warnings advisories
In... Wind chill advisory from 3 am est 2 am cst to 1 pm est noon
cst Friday for inz003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.

Mi... Wind chill advisory from 3 am to 1 pm est Friday for miz079>081.

Winter weather advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 1 pm est
Friday for miz077-078.

Oh... Wind chill advisory from 3 am to 1 pm est Friday for ohz001-002-
004-005-015-016-024-025.

Lm... Heavy freezing spray warning from 7 pm this evening to 10 pm est
Friday for lmz043-046.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm est Friday for lmz043-046.

Synopsis... Agd
short term... Agd
long term... Agd
aviation... Fisher
visit us at

Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 19 mi75 min W 9.9 G 14 25°F 1009.1 hPa (-1.1)
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 32 mi61 min WNW 6 G 8.9 22°F 1010.8 hPa
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 43 mi57 min WSW 2.9 G 5.1 18°F 1009.8 hPa13°F
CNII2 43 mi45 min WSW 8 G 11 18°F 13°F
FSTI2 43 mi135 min W 11 18°F
JAKI2 43 mi135 min W 5.1 G 8 21°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
Last
24hr
NW2
NE4
NW3
W4
NW5
G9
NW11
G16
NW4
G8
W4
G11
W5
G9
W10
W8
G14
SW5
G10
W7
G11
W5
G13
W5
G11
W4
G12
W6
G11
W7
G11
W4
G7
W4
W5
W6
G10
SW4
SW5
1 day
ago
SE9
G13
SE9
G14
SE13
G19
SE17
G23
SE10
G16
S10
G15
S9
G14
S11
G15
S13
G17
S10
G17
S8
G12
S8
G13
S7
G12
S8
G11
S9
S9
G12
S8
S6
G9
S5
S5
S5
G8
S5
SE2
G5
SE3
2 days
ago
SE5
G8
SE3
G7
S6
SE4
S5
S8
G11
SE8
G13
SE8
G11
E8
G11
SE9
G12
SE9
SE9
G14
SE8
G12
SE7
G10
SE8
G12
SE12
G16
SE10
G14
SE10
G16
SE13
G17
SE6
G13
SE8
G17
SE10
G16
SE11
G20
SE9
G14

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Michigan Regional Airport, MI22 mi22 minWNW 710.00 miOvercast25°F17°F72%1009.5 hPa
Michigan City Municipal Airport, IN24 mi20 minWSW 510.00 miOvercast23°F15°F74%1009.8 hPa

Wind History from BEH (wind in knots)
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
Last 24hrSE5SE7SE8S8S6SW8SW9W8NW8NW7
G19
NW9
G22
NW7
G16
NW8
G17
W9NW6NW9
G17
W8NW8
G17
NW6
G15
W8W9W8W9W7
1 day agoSE12SE12
G20
SE13
G20
SE16
G27
SE16
G28
SE17
G34
SE12
G26
SE10
G16
SE10
G19
SE12
G18
S6S4S7S6S7S6S5S4SE3SE4SE4SE6SE5SE6
2 days agoCalmE3CalmE5E5E7SE11SE11E8E11SE9SE9SE8E7SE8E8SE10SE9
G19
SE12
G23
SE13
G21
SE10SE11SE13SE12

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Northern Indiana, IN (5,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Northern Indiana, IN
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.