Thursday, August17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pistol River, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:28AMSunset 8:12PM Thursday August 17, 2017 6:10 PM PDT (01:10 UTC) Moonrise 1:13AMMoonset 4:13PM Illumination 19% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ376 Waters From Cape Blanco Or To Pt. St. George Ca From 10 To 60 Nm- 227 Pm Pdt Thu Aug 17 2017
.gale warning in effect through Sunday evening...
Tonight..N wind 20 to 25 kt northern portion and N 30 kt southern portion. Wind waves 8 to 11 ft. SWell nw 4 to 6 ft at 11 seconds.
Fri..N wind 30 kt northern portion and N gales 35 kt southern portion. Wind waves 8 to 11 ft. SWell nw 4 to 5 ft at 11 seconds.
Fri night..N wind 20 to 25 kt northern portion and N gales 35 kt southern portion. Wind waves 8 to 11 ft. SWell nw 3 to 4 ft at 10 seconds.
Sat..N wind 25 kt northern portion and N 30 kt southern portion. Wind waves 8 to 11 ft. SWell nw 3 ft.
Sat night..N wind 30 kt northern portion and N gales 40 kt southern portion. Wind waves 9 to 12 ft. SWell nw 3 ft.
Sun..N wind 30 kt northern portion and N gales 35 kt southern portion. Wind waves 9 to 12 ft. SWell W 3 ft.
Sun night..N wind 25 kt northern portion and N gales 35 kt southern portion. Wind waves 8 to 11 ft. SWell nw 3 ft.
Mon..N wind 30 kt...easing to 20 kt. Wind waves 10 to 11 ft... Subsiding to 6 ft. SWell nw 3 to 4 ft.
Tue..N wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves 5 to 6 ft... Subsiding to 3 to 4 ft. NW swell 5 ft...subsiding to 3 ft.
PZZ300 227 Pm Pdt Thu Aug 17 2017
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters.. High pressure centered offshore and a thermal trough along the coast will continue moderate to strong north winds with steep to very steep seas through the weekend. Conditions will at least be hazardous to small craft, but warning level winds and seas will occur beyond 5 nautical miles from shore and south of gold beach through the period.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pistol River, OR
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location: 42.07, -126.51     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 172147
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
247 pm pdt Thu aug 17 2017

Discussion An upper ridge centered in the eastern pacific will
shift slightly east towards our area in the next 24-36 hours. This
will bring a continuation of hot and dry conditions over our area
through at least Friday. The latest visible image shows no cloud
cover over our area, but patchy to areas of smoke is evident at the
eclipse complex in western siskiyou county and chetco fire in curry
county. The upper winds carrying the smoke from northeast to
southwest. Of note it looks like most of the above mentioned fires
are becoming active as evidenced by the smoke plumes on the visible
image.

The thermal trough remains just off the coast with offshore flow.

The chetco effect is in full force with brookings toping out at 94
degrees. It's has dropped down about 12 degrees in the past hour,
but were still expecting offshore flow to continue tonight with
gusty northeast winds and milder temperatures near and at the
ridges.

Not much is going to change in the next couple of days with
continued offshore flow. The chetco effect will remain in place,
therefore expect mild temperatures at brookings tonight followed
by another warm day Friday. Skies should remain clear tonight,
including the coast, but we'll still have to deal with patchy to
areas of smoke.

A weak shortwave trough will ride over the ridge Saturday and could
bring slight cooling to most inland locations, but only by a few
degrees on average. The models show marginal instability at best,
but mid level moisture is lacking, so were not expecting any
thunderstorms. However, cumulus build ups are possible over the
mountains in northern california and east of the cascades.

The models show a weak upper trough developing in central california
Saturday night into Sunday and could tap into some monsoonal
moisture. The northward extent of the moisture should be confined to
northern california, specifically modoc county due in part to a
westerly flow setting up in the northern part of the forecast area.

There may be enough instability and moisture and weak trigger to
generate isolated thunderstorms. So kept in a slight chance in for
southeast modoc and lake county late Sunday afternoon evening.

The upper trough will close off and remain in central californaia
Monday and it remains to be seen how much moisture and instability
will move into our area. The GFS shows more instability, moisture
and slightly stronger trigger. The ECMWF is weaker with all of these
elements and has weak or almost nonexistent flow over us. Given the
model differences this far out, no changes will be made to the
coverage of slight chance of thunderstorms.

Tuesday afternoon and evening could turn out to be the most active
day in terms of thunderstorms. The GFS continues to be the most
bullish with plenty of moisture, instability and trigger. Right now,
most of the action should be in northern california and cascades
eastward. However steering winds could push some of these storms
into portions of the westside valleys, including the rogue and
illinois valley. Keep in mind this is still several days out and the
details on this could change from one day to the next. The bottom
line is confidence is becoming higher we could have an active day
Tuesday afternoon evening, but less confident on the exact location
of thunderstorms. Also could not rule nocturnal storms Tuesday night
east of the cascades.

Beyond Tuesday, we'll start to feel the influence of an upper low
moving southeast from the gulf of alaska towards vancouver island.

The models differ with position of the upper low. The ECMWF shows a
deeper trough which if correct would draw in moisture and
instability resulting in at least a slight chance for thunderstorms
east of the cascades. The GFS shows a southwest flow, keeping the
best chance for thunderstorms east of our area. Despite the
differences, both models suggest some cooling possible by next week
at this time. It's a ways out and lot's could change, so stay tuned.

-petrucelli

Aviation 17 18z TAF cycle...VFR will prevail across the area
today and tonight. Wildfire smoke will degrade visibility and could
create partial terrain obstruction. This smoke is affecting most
areas except for the coast and lake county. At the coast and
offshore, gusty north winds will be strongest south of CAPE blanco
this afternoon and evening. Stratus will return north of CAPE blanco
by 07z tonight. -spilde bs

Marine Updated 230 pm pdt Thursday 17 august 2017... High
pressure centered offshore and a thermal trough along the coast
will continue moderate to strong north winds and steep to very steep
seas through the weekend. Conditions will at least be hazardous to
small craft, but warning level winds seas will occur beyond 5 nm
from shore and south of gold beach through the period. Winds and
seas will be highest during the afternoons and evenings each day
through Sunday, easing a bit during the overnights and early
mornings. Model guidance shows peak boundary layer winds of ~50kt on
both Saturday and Sunday afternoons, then the pressure gradient
weakens with winds gradually easing early next week. Fb

Fire weather Updated 330 am Thursday 17 august 2017...

a thermal trough along the coast will maintain moderate northeast
offshore winds in the SW oregon coast range and portions of western
siskiyou county this morning. Humidity recoveries in these areas
have been poor to moderate, generally 35-45 percent at mid
slope ridge level, with wind speeds peaking at 10-15 mph. Occasional
gusts of 25-30 mph have been reported at a couple of the more
exposed raws like red mound and slater butte overnight.

It will remain very dry over much of the area today through the
weekend with daily minimum relative humidity in the 10-20% range
south of the umpqua divide and also east of the cascades. Nighttime
and early morning marine layer clouds will be confined to the
immediate coast north of CAPE blanco. Today will be very warm and
dry even on the southwest coast - a brookings effect is in full
force with the current temperature as of 3 am sitting at 81f.

Guidance indicates a high temperature there similar to yesterday, in
the low 90s with corresponding min rh in the upper 20s to near 30
percent. Expect some marine influence to raise min rh values a
bit there over the coming days, but it will remain lower than
usual.

High pressure aloft will flatten across the area today through
Friday allowing the atmosphere to become more unstable. High level
haines of 5 will be common west of the cascades today, then across
the entire area on Friday. Haines 6 is possible in portions
of fire zones 624 western 625 on Friday. Temperatures inland
will be back to 5-10 degrees above normal.

An offshore upper level disturbance will dig southeastward this
weekend and close off near the central southern california coast
early next week. It's still uncertain, but this may be able to
bring some moisture back to the north up the sierra crest and
eventually into portions of our forecast area. We are continuing to
indicate a slight chance of thunderstorms in modoc on Sunday
afternoon, then near the trinity alps medicine lake area into modoc
and perhaps goosenest area Monday afternoon. Models have come into
better alignment showing a better chance for lightning from the
cascades siskiyous eastward on Tuesday afternoon evening. -spilde

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Ca... None.

Pacific coastal waters... Small craft advisory until 11 pm pdt Sunday for
pzz350-356-370-376.

Gale warning until 11 pm pdt Sunday for pzz356-376.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brookings, Brookings Airport, OR118 mi14 minSSE 610.00 miA Few Clouds64°F55°F73%1016.4 hPa

Wind History from BOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW7N7N4
G14
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64NE7N54CalmCalm4N8
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CalmSW4N73CalmS7SE6SE6S6
1 day agoS7SE4SE3CalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm6
G14
CalmS334W9W10NW6NW8NW11NW9
2 days ago--4SE4Calm--CalmNW3NW3CalmCalmSE3CalmCalmN3CalmW4Calm455SE7S4SE5SE5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Eureka, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.