Sunday, June25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pistol River, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:44AMSunset 8:54PM Sunday June 25, 2017 1:55 AM PDT (08:55 UTC) Moonrise 6:48AMMoonset 9:39PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ376 Waters From Cape Blanco Or To Pt. St. George Ca From 10 To 60 Nm- 830 Pm Pdt Sat Jun 24 2017
Tonight..S wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell nw 3 to 4 ft at 7 seconds and sw 2 to 3 ft at 15 seconds. Patchy fog.
Sun..S wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell nw 3 ft at 7 seconds and sw 3 ft at 15 seconds. Patchy fog.
Sun night..S wind 10 to 15 kt northern portion and S 5 to 10 kt southern portion. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell nw 3 ft at 7 seconds and sw 3 ft at 15 seconds. Patchy fog.
Mon..S wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell nw 3 to 4 ft and sw 2 ft. Patchy fog in the morning. Patchy drizzle in the morning.
Mon night..SW wind 5 kt...veering to N after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less...becoming 3 ft after midnight. Mixed swell nw 3 to 4 ft and sw 2 ft. Patchy fog after midnight. Patchy drizzle after midnight.
Tue..N wind 15 kt...rising to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. Mixed swell nw 3 to 4 ft and sw 2 ft. Patchy fog in the morning. Patchy drizzle in the morning.
Tue night..Northern portion, N wind 20 to 25 kt. Southern portion, N wind 25 kt...rising to 30 kt after midnight. Wind waves 7 to 9 ft. SWell sw 2 ft.
Wed..N wind 25 kt...rising to 30 kt in the evening, then... Easing to 25 kt after midnight. Wind waves 9 to 10 ft. SWell nw 2 ft.
Thu..N wind 30 kt. Wind waves 10 to 11 ft. SWell nw 2 ft.
PZZ300 830 Pm Pdt Sat Jun 24 2017
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..South winds are currently surging north up the coast, and fog and low stratus should push in towards the coast overnight. Seas have decreased significantly today, resulting in relatively clam conditions that should persist until the thermal trough returns Tuesday or Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pistol River, OR
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location: 42.07, -126.51     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 250424
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
925 pm pdt Sat jun 24 2017

Discussion Evening update. Moisture is beginning to feed into the
region with dewpoints that were in the 30's earlier now climbing
into the 50's. With the cumulus development in western siskiyou
county this afternoon and models indicating moisture influx at 850
mb and 500 mb temperature drop of 3c over the region am increasing
in confidence on thunderstorm development Sunday. Current forecast
looks on track and will not update this evening. Sven
previous discussion... The heat is on! Temperatures are about 5
degrees warmer than yesterday at this time, and we are on track to
beat daily record high temperatures for at least 5 observing
locations. This very hot air mass won't offer much in the way of
relief tonight with overnight low temperatures about 15 to 25
degrees above normal along and west of the cascades. Excessive heat
warnings and heat advisories continue through Sunday because we only
expect a few degrees of cooling tomorrow. Please remember these
safety tips throughout this heat wave:
* beat the heat, check the backseat. Never leave people or pets in
vehicles.

* rivers are dangerously cold and have strong currents. Wear a life
jacket if swimming.

* monitor older adults, young children and those who are sick.

* take plenty of rest breaks in shade or air conditioning.

* drink water before, during and after activities.

Although significant heat continues through tomorrow, our
forecasting attention tomorrow afternoon turns to midlevel
moisture and instability moving into the forecast area from the
south, bringing the chance for thunderstorms. Thunderstorm
initiation is expected first over western siskiyou county but
will expand north and east as the afternoon progresses. Sufficient
shortwave activity moving up from the south, along with
increasing precipitable water values and moderate instability,
should be enough to bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms. The
greatest chance for storms is over the high terrain, especially
the siskiyous and cascades. Convective inhibition (cin) could put
a cap on storms in some areas, especially valleys, but with
deformation aloft and plenty of moisture in the midlevels, we
think it warrants the mention of storms.

An upper level low pushes towards the CWA overnight Sunday, and this
will act in concert with upper level instability to bring a chance
for nocturnal thunderstorms. We've expanded the threat for overnight
storms to the coast based on upper level positive CAPE and namnest
simulated satellite imagery suggesting a real potential for coastal
storms at night. Overnight storms pose a particular concern for
fires because they tend to feature less rainfall.

On Monday the ingredients for thunderstorms are enhanced. The
aforementioned offshore upper circulation opens up and moves inland,
providing a large area of diffluence at the left exit region of a
60kt h3 jet. Additionally, the CIN greatly decreases Monday compared
to Sunday, so storms will be able to more readily form. Lastly,
0-6km bulk shear reaches a formidable 30kt. All of these mean
more storms and more lightning, and the potential for longer-
duration, severe storms.

Please see the fire weather discussion below for more details on
how this pattern may result in fire starts.

A cooler, breezy day is on tap Tuesday as onshore gradients increase
sharply. It will feel like a different climate on Tuesday compared
to today. Daily marine stratus intrusions are expected to bring
overnight and morning low clouds to at least the coast and umpqua
basin Monday through Wednesday. Relatively weak upper ridging is
likely late next week, resulting in weaker marine intrusions and a
bump upwards in temperatures, back to above normal readings for most
of the forecast area.

Aviation 24 18z TAF cycle...VFR conditions will continue at all
inland terminals through the TAF period. Marine stratus with MVFR
cigs vis will move into the coast overnight. -wright

Marine Updated 200 pm Saturday, 24 june 2017... South winds are
currently surging north up the coast, and should make it to florence
by this evening. The fog and stratus are lagging behind, currently
lying well offshore this afternoon, but should push in towards the
coast overnight. With the shift in winds, seas have decreased
significantly, so the small craft advisory has been cancelled.

Relatively calm conditions with areas of fog will persist until the
thermal trough returns with gusty north winds and steep seas Tuesday
or Wednesday. -bpn

Fire weather Extremely hot, dry weather conditions this weekend
will help to dry fuels and set the stage for possible fire starts as
thunderstorms develop late Sunday afternoon through Monday evening.

While heavier fuels are still wet and do not necessarily support
fire spread or growth, finer fuels are near seasonal dryness levels.

The possibility of lightning caused fire starts may lead to
increased initial attack activity, and the fire weather watches and
warnings are primarily for this impact.

Thunderstorms are most likely over the siskiyous, cascades, and east
across northern portions of klamath county. The fire weather watch
has been upgraded to a red flag warning for these locations. The
fire weather watch remains in effect over the west side valleys
where the thunderstorm forecast is much trickier. Storms are
expected to remain anchored to the terrain Sunday afternoon, but as
dynamics increase Sunday evening and night, storms will have a
better chance of drifting off the terrain and over the valleys.

Lightning should not be as abundant over the valleys, but such storm
would tend to be drier, and valley fuels are drier, and thus starts
are possible. We've decided to let the watch continue in the valleys
to see how things evolve tonight.

In addition to all this, gusty west winds will kick in as the system
moves through Monday afternoon, especially east of the cascades.

Thus, any new fires may be affected by winds. -wright

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... Red flag warning from 5 pm Sunday to 11 pm pdt Monday for
orz624.

Fire weather watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
for orz625.

Heat advisory until 8 pm pdt Sunday for orz023>028.

Excessive heat warning until 8 pm pdt Sunday for orz023>028.

Red flag warning from 2 pm Sunday to 11 pm pdt Monday for
orz621-623.

Fire weather watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday
afternoon for orz620-622.

Ca... Heat advisory until 8 pm pdt Sunday for caz080-081.

Excessive heat warning until 8 pm pdt Sunday for caz080-081.

Red flag warning from 2 pm Sunday to 11 pm pdt Monday for
caz280.

Fire weather watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon
for caz281.

Pacific coastal waters... None.

Nsk nsk trw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brookings, Brookings Airport, OR118 mi59 minN 010.00 miFair54°F52°F93%1015 hPa

Wind History from BOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmSE4CalmSW33SW44S6S6SE6S54S3S4S3SE3CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoNE13
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NE10
G21
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G27
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CalmSE9SE6SE7SE8S8S7SE7SE7S75SE5SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoN13
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N7
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NE7N10
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6N11
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6NW9
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NW9NW9N7
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G22
NE12
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N13
G23
NE12
G25
NE17
G26

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Eureka, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.