Wednesday, March20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Saugerties, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 7:09PM Wednesday March 20, 2019 5:08 PM EDT (21:08 UTC) Moonrise 6:47PMMoonset 7:05AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 406 Pm Edt Wed Mar 20 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night...
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance of rain late.
Thu..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt late. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Chance of rain in the morning, then rain likely in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..E winds around 15 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain. Patchy fog after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers.
Fri night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Chance of showers in the evening.
Sat..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 406 Pm Edt Wed Mar 20 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure approaches from the south tonight and Thursday before passing through late Thursday night. Deepening low pressure then lifts well to the north Friday into Saturday as high pressure builds Sunday. The high will give way to a cold front Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saugerties village, NY
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location: 42.07, -73.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 201756
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
156 pm edt Wed mar 20 2019

Synopsis
High pressure moving east of new england will bring fair
and dry weather today with temperatures running above normal. Clouds
increase Wednesday night associated with a complex storm system that
will impact the region Thursday into Saturday with rain and snow.

The snow will accumulate the most across the higher terrain
including the southern adirondacks and southern greens Thursday
night into Saturday. Cold and blustery conditions are expected
Friday night into Saturday as low pressure slowly moves northeast
towards nova scotia.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 129 pm edt... Sfc high pressure is located offshore of
eastern new england and will continue to slowly drift eastward
this afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows clear skies in
place over the region, which is expected to continue through
most of the area. Some thin cirrus clouds may start to approach
western areas towards sunset.

The mid and upper level flow becomes flatter over the
northeast, as upstream, a northern stream positively tilted
short-wave trough will be digging into the western great lakes
region and upper midwest. A southern stream trough will be
moving out of the southern plains and towards the lower ms river
valley. These two disturbances will bring inclement weather
back to the forecast area tomorrow.

Otherwise, astronomical spring will begin at 558 pm edt. The
return southerly flow from the retreating high will allow temps
to rise above normal. In the warm advection pattern, 850 hpa
temps increase to -2c to -4c. Temps have already reached into
the 40s across most of the area and highs this afternoon will
get into the upper 40s to lower 50s in the valley areas with
perhaps a few mid 50s over the mid-hudson valley. Expect upper
30s to mid 40s over hills and mtns.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Friday
Tonight... The northern stream short-wave trough digs into the oh
and tn valleys and begins to phase with the southern stream
disturbance lifting out of the southeast and lower mid atlantic
states. Southwesterly flow sets up over ny and new england, as
mid and high clouds will increase, thicken and gradually lower.

The consensus from the latest NAM gfs ECMWF cmc is for a mainly
dry night now, as the mid and upper level trough becomes
neutral tilted, as the forecast area has to wait for the
moisture to stream in ahead of the secondary coastal wave and
its associated inverted sfc trough. We drastically lowered the
pops, and trend them in later Thu morning. We did keep a slight
chance in from 6-8 am mainly west of the hudson river valley. A
cool night is expected with lows in the 30-35f range in the
valleys, and mid 20s to around 30f over the higher terrain.

Thursday... Low pressure near the chesapeake bay slowly lifts
north towards the region. Isentropic lift increases, and a
south to southwest low-level jet at 850 hpa increases to 30-40+
knots advecting in some atlantic moisture. The h850 +v-component
of the wind increases to +2 to +3 std devs above normal with
pwats increasing to a std dev or so above normal based on the
00z gefs. In the diffluent flow aloft, the sfc low slowly lifts
north, as the phasing begins with the short-waves towards
00z fri. The mid-level trough begins to take on a negative
tilt. The sfc temps and boundary layer warms enough for mostly a
ptype of rain by the afternoon. Initially, some light snow
accums are possible in the morning over the higher terrain
outside the hudson river valley and most of the mohawk valley.

Also the taconics should not see much snow with the onset.

Expect a coating to a few tenths over the southern adirondacks,
southern greens, berkshires, helderbergs, and eastern catskills
with perhaps a few half inch amounts over the high peaks of the
dacks, and catskills. In the warm advection pattern, expect max
temps to reach the upper 30s to lower 40s over the hills and
mtns, and mid and upper 40s in the lower elevations. The rain
become steadier and a bit heavier by sunset.

Thursday night into Friday... Their is less spread with the
track of the coastal low this cycle with the NAM the furthest
inland at 06z Fri bringing it near kpou,the ECMWF and GFS a
little bit further south and east over central nj and south of
long island, and the cmc is much further south. We leaned close
to a gfs ECMWF track with strong QG lift occurring ahead of the
wave with a strong h850 south to southeast LLJ continuing to
focus moisture across the region. The moisture advection looks
pretty good, and the h500 trough becomes negatively tilted over
the region with good dynamical support aloft. The column will
cool rapidly and moderate to heavy snow is likely over the
southern adirondacks, and southern greens. Lighter amounts of
snow will be possible over the eastern catskills, helderbergs,
taconics and berkshires. The nocturnal cooling coupled with the
strong dynamics may even produce light snow amounts in the
valleys including the capital region. We have a coating to a
half an inch in the capital region with 1-2 inches in the mohawk
valley by daybreak. The latest GEFS plume diagram mean snowfall
amounts gives albany an inch. Portions of the southern dacks,
and southern greens could receive 2-6 inches of heavy wet snow
overnight. We may need a winter storm watch later for southern
adirondacks and southern greens, as the sfc low moves northeast
to CAPE cod much of the forecast area will be near the mid and
upper level deformation zone with some decent fgen. Several
additional inches of snow will be possible over the higher
terrain. The boundary layer warms with lighter pcpn in the
valley areas. After lows in the upper 20s to upper 30s, expect
highs in the mid and upper 30s over the mtns, and upper 30s to
mid upper 40s in the valleys.

The wrap around snowfall continues into the evening, as a decent
west to northwest upslope event evolves for the southern
greens, northern taconics, berkshires, and western adirondacks.

More accumulating snow is likely, and the low level winds will
increase from the west to northwest. The bottom line is that a
moderate to heavy snow accumulation is possible for the southern
adirondacks and southern greens Thu night into Saturday. We will
continue to highlight this threat in the hwo.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
By Friday evening, a large upper level low is forecast to be
positioned over our region, with the surface cyclone in vicinity
of maine. There are some model differences with regards to the
position of the surface low, but the effects across our region
will be similar due to upslope snow developing in the moist nw
flow regime. Deeper cold air will wrap back into the area, with
any rain showers in the valleys quickly changing to snow
showers. Main concerns Friday night will be the potential for
strong NW winds developing due to increasing pressure gradient
as the surface cyclone deepens to somewhere in the 975-980 mb
range. Gusts of at least 35-45 mph are likely, with the
possibility for even stronger gusts. Will continue to mention
threat for wind related headlines in the hwo. ECMWF indicating
greater QPF than the GFS nam, but mountain valley effects should
modulate the snowfall distribution with accumulating snow
generally confined to the western adirondacks, southern green
mountains and northern berkshires where additional 2-4 inches
snowfall is possible with lesser amounts elsewhere. Due to
downsloping, the hudson valley should only see a dusting to a
half inch.

On Saturday, the large storm system is expected to become
vertically stacked as the surface cyclone starts to fill.

Upslope snow showers will continue in favored NW flow areas, but
should tend to decrease by afternoon as the parent cyclone
moves east into the canadian maritimes. Gusty NW winds will
still be an issue through Saturday, although the strongest winds
are expected to be during the first half of the day. Still,
potential for wind related headlines will persist. Temperatures
will be well below normal and combined with the wind will make
it feel even colder.

Dry conditions will return for Saturday night into Sunday, as
surface high pressure builds eastward across the mid atlantic
region and heights aloft rise considerably across our area.

Winds will be noticeably lighter Saturday night, although temps
will still be on the cool side. A warming trend is expected for
Sunday with abundant sunshine and decent mixing with a westerly
flow.

Model differences then arise for late Sunday night into Monday,
a strong cold front and associated upper level trough drop
southward from canada. Guidance in relatively good agreement
regarding the synoptic features, although the discrepancy is the
potential for precipitation along and just behind the front.

The GFS cmc continue to indicate rain showers changing to snow
showers during this time, while the ECMWF is showing a dry
frontal passage. Will continue to monitor trends and mention
chance pops for now. Either way, it will turn colder again for
Monday night and Tuesday with below normal temperatures and dry
conditions.

Aviation 18z Wednesday through Monday
Pleasant conditions continue for the remainder of today withVFR
conditions prevailing at all TAF sites thanks to high pressure
remaining in control.

Tonight ceilings gradually lower with some intermittent showers
arriving from south to north towards sunrise. We trended
ceilings downward towards MVFR status between 09z and 13z with
pou and psf dropping first followed by alb and gfl. Given
potential for a few steadier bands of showers during the morning
hours, trended pou and psf downward to show ifr condition by
13z and 15z, respectively. There is less confidence for a
prolonged period of ifr ceiling at alb and gfl as steadier
showers may not arrive until midday so only included a prob30
group at these sites between 15z and 18z.

Winds today will remain from the south-southwest around 5-10 kt.

Then, winds turn south-southeast tonight into tomorrow ranging 5-10
kt.

Outlook...

Thursday night: high operational impact. Definite ra.

Friday: high operational impact. Breezy definite shra... Ra.

Friday night: moderate operational impact. Windy chance of shra... Shsn.

Saturday: moderate operational impact. Windy slight chance of shsn.

Saturday night: low operational impact. Breezy no sig wx.

Sunday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Sunday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of shra.

Monday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra.

Fire weather
High pressure moving east of new england will bring fair
and dry weather today with temperatures running above normal. Clouds
increase Wednesday night associated with a complex storm system that
will impact the region Thursday into Saturday with rain and snow.

The snow will accumulate the most across the higher terrain
including the southern adirondacks and southern greens Thursday
night into Saturday.

Most of the higher terrain remains snow covered. The rh values
lower to 30 to 50 percent this afternoon, and then recover to 75
to 100 percent Thursday morning. The rh values will remain
elevated Thursday afternoon in the 50 to 75 percent range with
the rain and snow moving in.

The winds will be from the south to southwest at 5 to 15 mph
today, and south to southeast at 5 to 15 mph tonight. The south
to southeast winds of 10 to 20 mph will continue on Thursday.

A widespread rain and snow event is expected Thursday into
Friday.

Hydrology
No widespread hydrology problems are anticipated through much of
the the next week.

A substantial rain and snow event will impact the hydro service
area Thursday into the first half of the weekend. Total liquid
equivalent is much higher now in the three quarters of an inch
to an inch and a third range. Some locally higher amounts are
possible in the eastern catskills. The ptype will be mainly rain
in the valleys with some light snow accums. Moderate to heavy
wet snow accums are possible over the mountains especially north
of the interstate 90 corridor. Some within bank rises on rivers
will be possible late Thursday through Friday. The latest mmefs
guidance does not have any points reach flood stage.

Overall, forecast temperatures will generally be near to below
normal into early next week. Low temperatures are forecast to
fall below freezing on most nights and be above freezing during
the day through the weekend. The runoff should slow down and
flows should begin to recede on the weekend.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs on our
website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Wasula
near term... Frugis wasula
short term... Wasula
long term... Jpv
aviation... Speciale
fire weather... Wasula
hydrology... Cebulko wasula


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 4 mi98 min SSW 4.1 55°F 1024 hPa20°F
TKPN6 4 mi38 min S 12 G 14 48°F 1023.5 hPa25°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 74 mi44 min SSW 14 G 18 46°F 40°F1026.1 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 77 mi38 min S 9.9 G 11 44°F 43°F1026.8 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY30 mi75 minVar 5 G 1610.00 miFair54°F17°F23%1023.8 hPa

Wind History from POU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW7NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS6SW6SW11
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2 days agoW9NW9W9NW7NW5NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm4SW5--NW5W10
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Tide / Current Tables for Tivoli, Hudson River, New York
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Tivoli
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:58 AM EDT     4.63 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:28 AM EDT     -0.75 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:16 PM EDT     4.90 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:47 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:01 PM EDT     -0.90 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:43 PM EDT     Full Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.54.34.64.33.42.11-0-0.7-0.60.423.44.44.94.742.81.50.4-0.5-0.9-0.41

Tide / Current Tables for Kingston Point, Hudson River, New York
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Kingston Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:28 AM EDT     4.36 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:58 AM EDT     -0.72 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:46 PM EDT     4.61 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:47 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:31 PM EDT     -0.86 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:43 PM EDT     Full Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.74.34.33.72.61.40.4-0.4-0.7-0.21.12.63.74.44.64.23.220.9-0.1-0.7-0.70.21.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.