Wednesday, November22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Saugerties, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 4:30PM Wednesday November 22, 2017 3:23 PM EST (20:23 UTC) Moonrise 11:12AMMoonset 8:59PM Illumination 17% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1234 Pm Est Wed Nov 22 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until midnight est tonight...
This afternoon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt late. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers early.
Tonight..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..W winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..W winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
ANZ300 1234 Pm Est Wed Nov 22 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front will continue to cross the waters this afternoon as low pressure develops east of cape cod this evening. High pressure builds in tonight through the end of the week. A warm front lifts well north on Saturday followed by a cold front Saturday night. High pressure builds to the west for the beginning of next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saugerties village, NY
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location: 42.07, -73.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 221731
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
1231 pm est Wed nov 22 2017

Synopsis
A cold front will cross the region today with rain
showers and some snow at higher elevations. Brisk and cooler weather
this afternoon and evening in the wake of the front. Tranquil and
seasonably cool for thanksgiving day, but a few lake effect snow
showers are possible late in the day and at night over the
adirondacks. Dry and a bit warmer for Friday, with some showers
possible by Saturday.

Near term through tonight
As of 1231 pm est... Upper level shortwave trough is located
over central new york into north-central pennsylvania and it
continues to track eastward towards the area.

The surface cold front is now east of the region, moving into
central new england. As a result, the bulk of the steady rain
showers have finished, but there are a few lingering showers on
the backside of the boundary across extreme eastern new york and
into western new england. These should continue to move
eastward and should be exiting over the next hour or two.

Behind the cold front, temps will either hold steady or slowly
fall into the 30s this afternoon, as cooler air aloft moves
into the region. W-nw winds are starting to increase, with as
better mixing occurs, some gusts to 20-30 mph are likely in
favored areas of the higher terrain, mohawk valley, and capital
district.

With the cooler air moving in aloft, a modest lake response may
allow for some snow showers for parts of the western
adirondacks, mohawk valley and schoharie county this afternoon
into tonight, but shallow moisture depth and fairly quick height
rises should greatly limit activity. Just some coatings are
possible for these far western areas, mainly for the higher
terrain locations.

Cloud cover will gradually clear late this afternoon into
tonight behind the front, with low temps around 5f below normal
in the mid-teens to mid-20s.

Short term Thursday through Friday night
Midlevel height rises will allow the surface high over parts of
the south and ohio valley to expand into the northeast on
thanksgiving, ensuring tranquil weather for the majority of the
forecast area. Baggy shortwave energy and midlevel warm
advection will allow mid and high clouds to increase into the
afternoon and evening, but given dry low levels expect a dry
forecast. Some modest lake response is forecast late in the day
into the overnight hours as winds go west-southwest, bringing a
chance for light snow showers to the western adirondacks. High
temps thanksgiving expected to be several degrees below normal.

Yet another quick-moving shortwave will result in a strong
surface low tracking across ontario into james bay Friday and
Friday night, with low and mid-level winds becoming
southerly southwesterly locally. Though warm advection will be
delayed at the surface given rather light flow, temps are still
expected to rebound several degrees back toward seasonal normals
in the mid-30s to mid-40s. With a dry airmass and midlevel
height rises, a good deal of sunshine is expected. Fairly mild
Friday night with southerly flow continuing, although a few of
the usual suspects could decouple and see lower overnight lows.

Long term Saturday through Wednesday
The extended forecast begins with an upper level trough approaching
the forecast area to open the weekend. Initially, a warm front will
move through the region with mainly a slight to low chance of
showers. The latest 00z GEFS indicate h850 temps will be about 1 to
2 std devs above normal, as the actual h850 temps will be around
+5c. Highs on Saturday will range from the upper 40s to lower 50s
from the capital district south and east, as upper 30s to mid 40s
will be common north and west. The cold front to the system arrives
late in the day with very little low-level moisture to work with.

The better upper dynamics to the system shift well north and east
into quebec. There will be a slight to low chance of rain to rain
and snow showers across the region Saturday night. Some likely pops
were used across the western adirondacks, where some light snow
accums are possible of an inch or less with the frontal passage, and
westerly upslope flow in the wake of the front. Some light snow
accums are also expected across most of the higher terrain and the
western mohawk valley, which will be a half inch or less. Lows fall
back into the mid 20s to lower 30s.

Sunday-Sunday night... The mid and upper tropospheric trough lingers
over ny and new england. In the cyclonic flow, lake effect snow
showers will continue especially west of the hudson river valley
across the eastern catskills, west-central mohawk valley, and
western adirondacks. Additional light snow accums will be possible.

Right now, the flow looks to veer more to the northwest based on the
00z gfs ECMWF for multi-bands. Some west to northwest upslope snow
showers will continue across southern vt. It does look like high
pressure will be building in from the tn valley, and midwest Sunday
night helping to lower the subsidence inversion and allow the lake
effect snow showers to diminish overnight. Brisk and cold
conditions are expected to close the weekend with highs only in the
mid 20s to lower 30s west of the hudson river valley, and over the
southern greens with mid and upper 30s elsewhere. Cold temps
are anticipated Sunday night with lows in the teens and 20s.

Monday into Tuesday... A moderating trend in temps is expected with
ridging building from the south and west. Initially, the h500 flow
becomes zonal with temps slightly above normal on mon, but then the
sfc anticyclone shifts offshore and the western atlantic ridge
builds in with mid and upper level heights rising along the east
coast. The next cyclone looks to be approaching from southeast
ontario and the upper great lakes region for the mid-week, but temps
could be about 10 degrees above normal tue-wed with highs getting
into the upper 40s to lower 50s in the valley areas, and lower to
mid 40s over the mountains, which is closer to the latest wpc
guidance (which we sided with and coordinated with neighboring
wfo's) over the colder superblend. Overall, fair and dry late
november weather is expected for Mon and tue.

Aviation 18z Wednesday through Monday
Steady showers have just pushed east of the hudson with mainly MVFR
cigs for kgfl-kalb-kpou. However, favorable upslope conditions into
the berkshires have resulted in ifr conditions which should linger
over the next few hours along with showers. As upper trough remains
upstream, we will hold onto vcsh at this time but if showers were to
impact the TAF locations, it would be minimal and very short
duration this afternoon.

Sct-bkn stratocumulus will become less in coverage early this
evening. The skies will clear overnight in the subsidence in the
wake of the coastal system withVFR conditions.

The winds have or will shortly shift to the west to northwest at
around 10 kts with some gusts in the 20-26 kt range. The winds will
gradually diminish early this evening to around 10 kts or less.

Outlook...

thanksgiving day:no operational impact. No sig wx.

Thursday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Friday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Friday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Saturday: moderate operational impact. Chance of ra.

Saturday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of shra.

Sunday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra.

Fire weather
A cold front will cross the region today with rain
showers and some snow at higher elevations. Brisk and cooler weather
this afternoon and evening in the wake of the front. Tranquil and
seasonably cool for thanksgiving day, but a few lake effect snow
showers are possible late in the day and at night over the
adirondacks. Dry and a bit warmer for Friday, with some showers
possible by Saturday.

Hydrology
No hydrologic problems are expected this week.

An approaching cold front and coastal low will allow showers to
spread into the region today. Most of the moisture associated
with the coastal low will miss us to the east, so mainly light
precipitation is expected. Mainly dry and seasonably cool
weather is expected thanksgiving day into Friday, aside from
some light snow showers across the adirondacks. Another round of
light precipitation is expected on Saturday ahead of another
cold front.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs
on our website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Thompson
near term... Frugis bgm thompson
short term... Thompson
long term... Wasula
aviation... Bgm
fire weather... Thompson
hydrology... Thompson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 4 mi54 min 45°F 1014 hPa31°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 74 mi54 min NNW 8 G 12 47°F 51°F1011 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 77 mi54 min N 19 G 23 47°F 51°F1011.2 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY30 mi31 minNW 13 G 1910.00 miOvercast45°F28°F54%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from POU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5S444CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4N7N6NW13
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1 day agoW14SW7SW9SW4W5SW8SW6SW7SW7CalmE3CalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmS3SE9S8S9S85S6
2 days agoW11
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Tide / Current Tables for Tivoli, Hudson River, New York
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Tivoli
Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Wed -- 04:09 AM EST     3.44 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:54 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:11 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:17 AM EST     0.53 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:12 PM EST     4.04 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:28 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:59 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:01 PM EST     0.31 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.12.12.83.33.43.32.821.30.80.50.71.42.53.43.8443.52.71.710.50.3

Tide / Current Tables for Kingston Point, Hudson River, New York
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Kingston Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:39 AM EST     3.24 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:54 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:47 AM EST     0.50 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:11 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:43 PM EST     3.82 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:29 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:59 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:31 PM EST     0.31 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.52.42.93.23.232.31.50.90.60.50.91.82.83.53.83.83.632.11.30.70.40.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.