Saturday, February17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Saugerties, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 5:33PM Saturday February 17, 2018 9:55 PM EST (02:55 UTC) Moonrise 8:53AMMoonset 8:26PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 704 Pm Est Sat Feb 17 2018
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw late. Seas 1 ft or less. Snow. Vsby less than 1 nm.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the afternoon.
Mon night..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain. Patchy fog after midnight. Vsby less than 1 nm after midnight.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Patchy fog in the morning. Vsby less than 1 nm.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby less than 1 nm.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Patchy fog in the morning. Vsby less than 1 nm in the morning.
Wed night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain. Vsby less than 1 nm in the evening.
Thu..N winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Thu night..N winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 704 Pm Est Sat Feb 17 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure passes to our south tonight, followed by high pressure for Sunday. The high then slides offshore through Monday. A warm front approaches from the southwest Monday night, then lifts to the north Tuesday, followed by a slow moving cold front crossing the area during the middle week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saugerties village, NY
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location: 42.07, -73.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 172338
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
638 pm est Sat feb 17 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure will pass south of long island and then
east of CAPE cod by tomorrow morning bringing a light to moderate
snowfall to eastern new york and western new england. Seasonably
old and brisk conditions will return to close the weekend, as high
pressure will build in late in the day. Milder weather returns to
open the week, as a cyclone and a warm front over the midwest and
ohio valley bring some rain into the region during the afternoon
into Monday night.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
Winter storm warning from 7 pm today until 7 am Sunday for
litchfield and berkshire counties.

Winter weather advisory from 7 pm today until 7 am Sunday for
the eastern catskills, mid hudson valley, taconics, berkshires
and southern vermont.

As of 638 pm est... Low pressure continues to approach from the
mid atlantic states with an inverted surface trough along the
eastern seaboard. With isentropic lift underway, light snow has
already begun across the catskills, mid hudson valley into the
southern berkshires and NW ct. Snow is gradually expanding
northward and should begin in the capital region and mohawk
valley by 7 to 8 pm, and then expand northward between 8-10 pm
based on the latest 3-km hrrr and 3-km nam. Once everyone wet
bulbs, a burst of moderate to heavy snow is likely from the
capital region, eastern catskills, and southern vt south and
east into the early to mid morning, as the low and mid level
fgen increases near the long island and southern new england
coast.

The strong QG lift in the northwest quadrant of the open sfc
wave passing south of long island at 06z will allow for good
pcpn efficiency and some 1" per hour rates with potentially some
bandlets. These will likely impact NW ct, the mid hudson valley
and berkshires. The QPF has increased on the latest 12z ecmwf
and nam, which have around a half an inch of QPF over the
berkshires and NW ct. Utilizing 10-13:1 snow to liquid ratios,
as this will allow for 4-8" of snow. The 12-hr snow criteria is
6" or more there. A jog further north and west of 0.25-0.50" has
warranted an expansion northward of the advisory to include
greene and western columbia counties for 3-6" of snow. Southern
vt and the taconics we are expecting 3-7". For the capital
region, mohawk valley northwestward 1-4" will be possible with
the lowest amounts over the southern dacks. Would not be
surprised for 2-4" in the tri cities area. Lows will be in the
mid and upper 20s in the valley areas, and teens to lower 20s
over the mtns. The snow should rapidly diminish towards
daybreak, especially between 4-6 am.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through Monday night
Tomorrow, high pressure will quickly ridge in from the ohio
valley and mid atlantic states. Some lake effect or upslope snow
showers will end quickly in the morning with little additional
snow accums for the western dacks, and southern greens. The
strong sfc pressure gradient between the departing cyclone into
the north atlantic, and the sfc anticyclone will yield brisk
northwest winds of 10-20 mph with some gusts in the 30-35 mph
range. Sunshine more than clouds for the afternoon with highs in
the upper 30s to lower 40s in the valley areas, and mid 20s to
mid 30s over the higher terrain.

Sunday night... High pressure retreats off the mid atlantic coast
with a period of clear skies, and calm winds. However, high
clouds will be on the increase, as the mid level flow becomes
zonal. The clouds will move in after midnight. Lows will be in
the teens to mid 20s.

Mon-mon night... Clouds thicken and lower quickly with the
increasing thermal advection between the retreating anticyclone
off the coast, and a warm front approaching from the mid
atlantic states and oh valley. Some rain should break out in the
warm advection regime by the afternoon. Temps increase into the
40s with a few upper 30s over the northern zones. Temps should
steady or slightly climb Monday night. Lows will be early on in
the mid 30s to lower 40s. The best isentropic lift with the
warm front, an a midlevel short-wave will be north and west of
the capital region. Hence, the QPF will be heaviest here.

Long term Tuesday through Saturday
A very mild air mass will be in place for the start of the extended
period. 850 hpa temps will be around +9 to +13 degrees c on Tuesday
and Wednesday, which is about 2-3 std above normal.

At the surface, a stationary boundary will be located just north and
west of the region, although the models still don't agree on exactly
where it sets up. Depending on where exactly this boundary stalls
out, some light rain showers may impact areas north and west of
albany for Tuesday into Wednesday with plenty of clouds,
otherwise, it will be mainly dry through the the mid-week with
very warm and near-record temps. Even if it does stall close
enough, model guidance suggests that any heavy precip should
remain on the other side of the boundary across southern canada.

Highs on Tuesday will be mid 50s to mid 60s and highs Wednesday will
be upper 50s to upper 60s (with a few spots near 70 in the hudson
valley). Overnight lows will be very mild on Tuesday night as well,
and look to remain the 40s and 50s.

Finally, the stationary boundary should move across the area as a
cold front for Wednesday night. This front will be accompanied
by some showers, which may briefly changeover to snow showers
before ending across the highest terrain. Lows will fall into
the 20s and 30s, with the coldest temps across the adirondacks
and southern greens.

Behind the front, mainly dry and quiet weather is expected for
Thursday into Friday, as strong high pressure slides across southern
canada into northern new england. Even behind the front, temps
won't be cold, as highs still are expected to reach the mid 30s to
mid 40s and lows will be in the 20s and 30s.

The next chance for precipitation will be Friday night into
Saturday, as a storm system within southwest flow aloft approaches
the area. As expected, still lots of differences with model
timing precip amounts due to being a week out, so impacts are still
unknown at this time.

Aviation 00z Sunday through Thursday
Snow has begun at kpou and is quickly spreading northward. Snow
will begin at kpsf kalb by 00z-01z, and kgfl by 03z, allowing
for flying conditions to immediately drop down to ifr conditions
due to visibility of 1-2 sm. Southerly winds will be around 5-10
kts, with a few higher gusts before the snow really picks up
thanks to the strong southerly flow in place. Once the snow
becomes steadier, winds may drop off a little bit for the
overnight hours. Snow may be briefly be moderate to heavy at
kpou kpsf overnight, allowing for visibility in the 1 2 to 3 4
sm range, with vv under 1000 ft at times. Otherwise, snow will
generally be light with visibility around 1 sm and ceilings
around 1-2 kft.

Snow should end quickly around 09z-11z from west to east,
allowing forVFR conditions to return for most sites for the day
on Sunday (kpsf may see MVFR linger into the morning due low
ceilings). Otherwise, sct-bkn CIGS around 3500 ft will continue
for much of the day with w-nw winds around 10 to 15 kts (some
higher gusts are possible at kalb kpsf). Ceilings will start to
decrease by late in the day Sunday with skies becoming clear and
winds should diminish by Sunday evening as well.

Outlook...

Sunday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Washingtons birthday: moderate operational impact. Likely ra.

Monday night: high operational impact. Likely ra.

Tuesday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra.

Tuesday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra.

Wednesday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra.

Wednesday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Shsn.

Thursday: slight chance of shra... Shsn.

Hydrology
A fast moving low pressure system is expected to bring a light
to moderate snowfall to much of the region tonight into Sunday
morning.

Total liquid equivalent amounts will range from close two tenths
over the northwestern portion of the hydro service area to two
thirds of an inch over the southeast portion tonight into Sunday
morning.

Temperatures will start to warm back up early next week with
some additional rainfall as well. A warm front will bring a few
tenths of a half an inch of rainfall Monday afternoon into
Monday night.

Well above normal temperatures are anticipated by Tuesday into
Wednesday, so we will be monitoring for runoff due to snowmelt
and possible ice jam movement.

The latest mmefs on Saturday are indicating river rises with
some flooding possible due to snowmelt and rainfall next week,
especially in the mohawk river basin. Ice jams will likely start
moving due to the mild temperatures and could increase the
flood potential in some areas. However, there is still
considerable uncertainty regarding how much snowmelt and
rainfall occurs. A flood watch maybe needed later in time.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs
on our website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... Winter storm warning until 7 am est Sunday for ctz001-013.

Ny... Winter weather advisory until 7 am est Sunday for nyz054-
058>061-063>066.

Ma... Winter storm warning until 7 am est Sunday for maz001-025.

Vt... Winter weather advisory until 7 am est Sunday for vtz013>015.

Synopsis... Wasula
near term... Frugis wasula
short term... Wasula
long term... Frugis
aviation... Frugis
hydrology... 11 wasula


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 4 mi86 min 31°F 1020 hPa30°F
TKPN6 4 mi44 min Calm G 2.9 30°F 32°F30°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 74 mi44 min E 5.1 G 8 32°F 36°F1019.7 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 77 mi38 min SE 5.1 G 7 32°F 39°F1020.3 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY30 mi63 minN 00.75 miLight Snow Fog/Mist30°F28°F92%1018.9 hPa

Wind History from POU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW8NW9NW8CalmNW4CalmCalmE3CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE83S12
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW10W4SW3CalmCalmW6SW8SW6SW5NW8W11W16
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3SW3W6SW6SW4CalmSE5CalmSE4SE3SE3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Tivoli, Hudson River, New York
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Tivoli
Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Sat -- 02:41 AM EST     3.73 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:49 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:53 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:14 AM EST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:52 PM EST     4.14 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:31 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:26 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 09:39 PM EST     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.33.23.63.73.42.71.70.80.2-0.10.11.12.43.444.13.93.32.21.20.3-0.2-0.30.4

Tide / Current Tables for Kingston Point, Hudson River, New York
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Kingston Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:16 AM EST     3.52 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:53 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:47 AM EST     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:28 PM EST     3.90 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:31 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:26 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 09:13 PM EST     -0.37 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.63.23.53.432.11.20.5-0-0.20.41.62.73.53.93.93.52.71.60.70-0.4-0.10.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.