Wednesday, January23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Saugerties, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 5:00PM Wednesday January 23, 2019 3:57 AM EST (08:57 UTC) Moonrise 9:13PMMoonset 10:08AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 949 Pm Est Tue Jan 22 2019
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of rain in the evening, then rain after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain, mainly in the morning. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of snow showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of snow showers in the evening. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
ANZ300 949 Pm Est Tue Jan 22 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Strong high pressure over the area will pass offshore tonight into Wednesday morning. A frontal system will approach Wednesday afternoon and night, with a wave of low pressure riding along it to our northwest Thursday morning. The low will drag a cold front through Thursday afternoon. High pressure will then build across through Saturday. A cold front will approach on Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saugerties village, NY
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location: 42.07, -73.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 230620
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
120 am est Wed jan 23 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will move east of the mid atlantic states
tonight with clouds thickening and lowering ahead of a warm front
associated with low pressure moving into the great lakes region. A
wintry mix of precipitation will occur ahead of the warm front
tomorrow into early tomorrow evening. A slow moving cold front with
a wave of low pressure moving along it will bring periods of rain
and warmer temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday. Colder air
returns Thursday afternoon into Thursday night transitioning
leftover precipitation back to snow for some areas.

Near term until 6 am this morning
As of 120 am est... Surface high pressure is departing off the
coast of the mid-atlantic states. Meanwhile, mid and high level
clouds are quickly increasing across the region. Kenx radar
imagery does show some precip aloft moving into the region over
the adirondacks, but very dry air at mid and low levels is
allowing this to dissipate before reaching the ground. Temps
have quickly fallen into the single digits and teens across the
region. However, temps will soon be starting to level off and
eventually rise by later tonight, as a southerly flow starts to
develop.

Overnight, a potent short-wave trough will be moving from the
central plains into the upper ms river valley and the upper
midwest. The mid and upper level flow becomes flatter and zonal
over the northeast with some warm advection pcpn moving in
towards daybreak for the adirondacks, thanks to an strenghtening
southwest low-level jet. P-type looks to be snow with this
precip, but little is expected and just a dusting is expeted by
daybreak for far northwestern parts of the area.

Short term 6 am this morning through Thursday night
Winter weather advisory is in effect from 7 am to 9 pm est
wed for hamilton, warren, northern fulton, northern washington
and northern saratoga counties...

winter weather advisory is in effect from 7 am to 6 pm est wed
for herkimer county, the mohawk valley, the helderbergs,
schoharie valley and the eastern catskills...

winter weather advisory is in effect from 9 am to 6 pm est wed
for the greater capital district, southern washington county,
the northern and central taconics, the berkshires and southern
vermont.

Wednesday... Low pressure moves into the western and central
great lakes region ahead of the positively tilted mid and upper
level trough. A warm front will be approaching the region. The
isentropic lift increases on the 285 290k surfaces during the
late morning into the afternoon. The southwesterly low- level
jet increases to 40-50+ knots. Pwats increase +2 to +3 std devs
above normal with h850 moisture flux convergence rising 4-5+ std
devs above normal based on the 12z gefs. H850 temps do rise to
0 to +3c quickly. The problem will be shallow cold air at the
sfc, and the effect of frozen ground that make the ptype very
challenging.

The pcpn will initially be light with the greatest chance of
some light snow and sleet north and west of the capital region.

It will also take a little time for the lower-levels to
saturate. The pops were expanded more in the likely categorical
range in the afternoon from the hudson river valley eastward
except for the southern greens. The warmer air in the h850 h925
layers with temps still below freezing near the sfc will
increase the freezing rain threat. The 12z hrefs indicate decent
probabilities for this threat, as well as the NAM bufkit
profiles. We are not expecting heavy freezing rain, but even a
little bit will be problematic. We used a blend of the NAM gfs
thermal profiles to do the hourly forecast grids with a top-down
method. We also have temps rising during the day into evening
with the strengthening southerly flow, as milder air moves into
the region.

The lower elevations should rise quickly above freezing, except
for perhaps the the upper hudson valley, portions of the central
mohawk valley, and east of the southern greens, where sometimes
the cold air takes more time to erode. Also, which such a dense
snow pack, we could still get freezing rain in the 32-35f range.

We tried to account for this with a freezing rain rain with
these temps. Untreated roadways may become slick. We are
expecting ice accumulations of a coating to a tenth of an inch
in some spots with perhaps a tenth to a quarter inch over the
south southeast facing slopes of the southern adirondacks, the
central mohawk valley, and over the southern greens. We were not
confident about widespread freezing rain occurring in the mid
hudson valley, southern taconics, and NW ct, so they have been
left out of an advisory at this time. It may be addressed with
an sps, if needed. Temps rise into the mid and upper 30s in the
lower elevations with lower to mid 30s over the mtns by the
early evening.

Wed night... The pcpn increases across the region, as a deep
conveyor belt of moisture from the gulf of mexico impacts the
region ahead of the cold front, as low pressure passes well to
north and west across southeast canada. We have temps getting
above freezing between 9 pm and midnight with a transition to
all rain. If temps are holding below, then the advisories may
need to be extended in some areas. Temps will be rising wed
night into the mid 30s to mid 40s for periods of rain, which
could be heavy at times, as the low-level convergence increases
along the cold front moving in from the west. A low-level
+v-component wind anomaly southerlies increases to +2 to +4
std devs above normal increasing the water vapor transport based
on the latest 12z gefs. The snow pack should absorb quite a bit
of the rain, but the pack is less south and east of the capital
region, and northern berkshires. We will have to monitor for
any hydro issues heading into thu. Please see our hydro section
below. Lows will be early in the evening in the upper 20s to mid
30s north and west of the capital region and mid and upper 30s
south and east. If the cold air rushes in sooner over the
western adirondacks, then we could see a transition back to
accumulating snow and colder temps by daybreak.

Thu-thu night... An active period where the cold front moves
across the region with the 12z nam GFS being faster than the 12z
cmc ecmwf. A wave of low pressure moves along the front
increasing the QG lift for the periods of rain. There cold even
be a rumble of thunder due to some elevated instability south of
albany. We mentioned, rain moderate to heavy at times from the
capital region south and east in the afternoon. Colder air moves
into the southern and western adirondacks. We have above 1-3"
or 2-4", if the totals increase, then we may need to issue
another advisory for that area. Ponding of water on roadways and
poor drainage flooding may become an issue with the melting
snow with the run- off from the rainfall. Most locations could
get up to an inch. We trended the colder air across the region
during the afternoon into the early evening for some light snow
accums of a few tenths of an inch to an inch over the higher
terrain. Maybe a coating to a few tenths in the valley areas.

This forecast is subject to change depending on the time of the
front. Temps will peak in the lower to mid 40s from albany south
and east, and 30s to the north and west. Some lake effect snow
showers and westerly upslope snow showers occur in the wake of
the front. We will have to watch out for a flash freeze with
temps falling below freezing quickly Thu night, as lows are
expected to fall back into the teens and 20s.

Total QPF from this system may range from 1 to 2 inches with the
higher totals south and east of the capital district. If
flooding concerns increase, then a watch may be needed for parts
of the region (i.E. Housatonic basin).

Long term Friday through Tuesday
Anonymously strong upper trof will be positioned just north of the
great lakes with northern stream flow dominating our weather through
the long term period.

To start, another shot of arctic air will result in well below
normal temperatures Friday and Saturday. Temperatures will be the
coldest of the period as 850 mb temps fall to the -17 to -22c range,
1-2 sd below normal. Lake-effect snow will also be likely downwind
of lake ontario. Model soundings show favorable conditions with
moderate to extreme lake instability Friday afternoon into Saturday
morning. These lake effect snow bands may have a decent inland
extent as well.

It appears the best chance for accumulating snow outside of the lake
effect zones will be toward the end of the period (Sunday Monday) as
stronger warm advection ahead of a sharper shortwave trough is
indicated by model consensus. There is still considerable
uncertainty toward the end of the long term period, however.

Aviation 06z Wednesday through Sunday
High pressure will continue to shift eastward offshore, with
southerly winds transporting moisture into the area. This will
result in clouds continuing to thicken and lower. However,VFR
conditions are expected to continue into mid to late afternoon
before showers become more widespread and CIGS likely fall to MVFR
levels. There could be a few spotty lighter showers around in the
early afternoon. This could be problematic as surface temperatures
are expected to remain near or below freezing until the mid to late
afternoon, so freezing rain is a possibility outside of kpou,
especially since surfaces are likely to be cold given the recent
cold snap. Any freezing rain should be fairly light, but could
result in a glaze of ice on surfaces.

Any freezing rain will gradually transition to plain rain during the
late afternoon into the evening hours, with kgfl likely holding onto
frozen precipitation longest. Rain will eventually become steadier
after 00z, with flight category falling to lower MVFR to possibly
ifr levels. Kalb is likely to remain above ifr given strong
downsloping expected.

Winds will gradually increase into this morning out of the south at
around 6 to 12 kt with some gusts to around 20 kt possible this
afternoon at kalb kpsf. Low-level wind shear conditions can be
expected through the morning and again this evening as a strong low-
level jet moves into the area.

Outlook...

Wednesday night: high operational impact. Breezy definite ra.

Thursday: high operational impact. Breezy definite ra... Sn.

Thursday night: slight chance of shsn.

Friday: low operational impact. Slight chance of shsn.

Friday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Saturday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Saturday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of shsn.

Sunday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shsn.

Hydrology
The cold temperatures continue into tonight allowing ice to thicken
and strengthen on rivers and lakes.

A low pressure system will impact the area Wednesday through
Thursday. Warmer air will move in ahead of this system resulting
freezing rain transitioning to rain during the day Wednesday.

Rain continues Wednesday night into Thursday and it's expected to
come down moderate to heavy at times to the south and east of the
capital district. Colder air will be ushered back into the area with
the passage of the system's cold front with the rain changing to
snow.

For most of the area, much of the precipitation will be absorbed by
the snowpack on the ground. However, runoff from rainfall is
expected along with some melting of the snow pack to the south and
east of the capital district where temperatures are forecast to warm
into the 40s for a period late Wednesday and Thursday morning. At
this time, 3 to 5 foot river rises are forecast with action stages
expected to be reached in the housatonic river basin with minor
flooding possible below stevenson dam.

With rises and ice movement on some rivers can not rule out the
development of ice jams however the limited amounts of total runoff
should prevent this from being a major concern.

Turns colder in the wake of the system with below normal
temperatures expected and any precipitation in the form of snow.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs on our website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... Winter weather advisory from 7 am this morning to 6 pm est
this evening for nyz032-038>040-047-048-051-058-063.

Winter weather advisory from 9 am this morning to 6 pm est
this evening for nyz049-050-052>054-059>061-084.

Winter weather advisory from 7 am this morning to 9 pm est
this evening for nyz033-041>043-082-083.

Ma... Winter weather advisory from 9 am this morning to 6 pm est
this evening for maz001-025.

Vt... Winter weather advisory from 9 am this morning to 6 pm est
this evening for vtz013>015.

Synopsis... Wasula
near term... Frugis wasula
short term... Wasula
long term... Jlv
aviation... Thompson
hydrology... Iaa westergard


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 4 mi87 min E 1 21°F 1031 hPa12°F
TKPN6 4 mi57 min S 8.9 G 13 22°F 1030.5 hPa (-3.1)10°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 74 mi57 min SW 8 G 14 30°F 35°F1031.5 hPa (-2.7)
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 77 mi57 min N 4.1 G 6 23°F 36°F1032.2 hPa (-2.9)

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY30 mi64 minN 010.00 miFair14°F8°F77%1030.6 hPa

Wind History from POU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4CalmCalmCalm
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Tide / Current Tables for Tivoli, Hudson River, New York
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Tivoli
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Wed -- 03:18 AM EST     4.22 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:08 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:43 AM EST     -0.92 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:31 PM EST     4.83 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:58 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:13 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:23 PM EST     -1.10 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.42.83.84.24.13.42.31-0-0.7-0.9-0.11.53.14.24.84.84.33.21.90.6-0.4-1-0.9

Tide / Current Tables for Kingston Point, Hudson River, New York
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Kingston Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:48 AM EST     3.98 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:08 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:13 AM EST     -0.88 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:01 PM EST     4.55 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:59 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:13 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:53 PM EST     -1.04 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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23.13.843.62.71.50.4-0.4-0.9-0.60.62.23.54.34.64.33.62.41.10.1-0.8-1-0.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.