Tuesday, September26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Saugerties, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 6:46PM Tuesday September 26, 2017 2:16 PM EDT (18:16 UTC) Moonrise 12:54PMMoonset 10:51PM Illumination 36% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1159 Am Edt Tue Sep 26 2017
This afternoon..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tonight..NE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 1159 Am Edt Tue Sep 26 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure slowly retreats to the east through Wednesday as hurricane maria tracks northeast off the mid atlantic coast. Refer to statements form the national hurricane center for the latest on maria. A cold front moves through the region Wednesday night, followed by brief high pressure building in from the west through late week. Another cold front passes through Friday night, followed by high pressure settling in through Saturday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saugerties village, NY
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location: 42.07, -73.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 261725
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
125 pm edt Tue sep 26 2017

Synopsis
High pressure at the surface and aloft will remain parked over the
region providing dry conditions and near record temperatures today.

A cold front is expected to track through our region late Wednesday
and Wednesday night leading to cooler weather and normal
temperatures by Thursday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Some convective clouds in the eastern catskills, helderbergs,
southern vt and the berkshires that could become a few isolated
showers and have included that possibility, outside of the
mostly sunny conditions across the region. Winds are light and
there are some thin high clouds around, so highs in the 80s but
may be tough to hit 90 this afternoon.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Thursday night
Wednesday looks like our last summer-like day as the upper ridge
that has been firmly in place finally breaks down. This is in
response to an upper trough and associated cold front approaching
the area from the west. There is relatively little moisture
associated with the cold front but the heat and humidity along
with some instability will support scattered showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening prior to the cold
frontal passage. Warm temperatures aloft and light winds will
limit the instability and shear, so chances of strong to severe
thunderstorms look minimal. Highs Wednesday are expected to warm
into the 80s to near 90 degrees.

The surface cold front is timed to track through Wednesday
evening into the overnight period, allowing for winds to turn
out of the north and start ushering in cooler air. Some isolated
showers will be possible as well through early Thursday morning.

Temperatures will start to feel cooler overnight as values dip
into the 40s in the adirondacks and into the upper 50s
elsewhere.

Cold air advection will ensue throughout the day Thursday
with breezy north to northwesterly winds. This will allow for a
return to fall normals with highs in the 60s to low 70s. The
core of the coldest air looks to arrive sometime Thursday
afternoon evening. In fact, the latest GEFS shows the above
normal warmth exiting the area Wednesday night with slightly (-1
to -2 s.D. 925mb temps) below normal air entering new york
Thursday night. Temperatures Thursday night will likely dip into
the 40s, potentially some upper 30s in the adirondacks.

Long term Friday through Monday
The extended period will feature much more seasonable temperatures
and mainly dry conditions with only one minor rain threat to discuss.

Following the cold front from Thursday, canadian high pressure takes
control of our region on Friday. The thermal axis moves into our
area during the day Friday with h850 isotherms in the low single
digits yielding cooler temperatures than seen on Thursday. Highs
should only finish in the upper 50s low 60s. While the majority of
Friday should be dry, we should see gradually increasing clouds as a
shortwave trough embedded in a positively tilted longwave trough
progresses from the great lakes into the northeast heading into
Saturday.

Guidance continues to trend slower with the onset timing of showers
and also has shifted the position of the surface low further south
in the mid-atlantic. While the euro in recent runs showed the
shortwave cutting off with much more moisture, the recent 00z run is
more in line with the GFS and canadian output showing a weaker and
drier shortwave. In addition, the 300 mb jet dynamics are not
favorable for a widespread rain event in the 00z model suite.

Therefore, am growing confident that the total rainfall from
isolated to scattered showers should only range from around a tenth
to less than two tenths. In terms of timing, kept 12-18z Friday dry
as any initial moisture and positive vorticity advection will have
to fight dry air initially. Then increased pops to slight chance in
extreme western areas 18z Fri - 00z sat. Increased pops from west to
east Friday night but only peaked on the low end of chance given the
southern drier trend.

Lingered slight chance pops for daytime Saturday to be in line with
the neighboring offices; however, the best chance for any leftover
showers should be in the morning in western new england as
subsidence behind departing shortwave should give drier conditions
for the second half of the day. Temperatures stay seasonably cool in
the 60s thanks to northwest flow.

Strong high pressure (potentially 1030-1035mb) from the midwest then
tracks into the region Sunday - Tuesday, continuing the dry and
pleasant weather. As the high shifts into new england by Monday -
Tuesday, return flow should set in and high temperatures look to
rise back into the low 70s.

Aviation 18z Tuesday through Sunday
High pressure ridging at the surface and aloft will remain in
place over the region through today. The ridge then begins
breaking down tomorrow as an upper level trough approaches from
the west.

Vfr conditions will prevail through this evening. Another round
of radiational mist fog will be possible again tonight with
ifr lifr conditions at kgfl psf. Kalb kpou less confident for
ifr or lower conditions so have placed some ifr fog with visibilities
close to 2sm.

Expect south to southeast winds at 6 kt or less through this
afternoon. Winds will then trend towards calm late tonight.

Southerly winds at 5 to 10 kts forecast for Wednesday.

Outlook...

Wednesday night: low operational impact. Isolated shra... Tsra.

Thursday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Thursday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Friday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Friday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra.

Saturday: low operational impact. Slight chance of shra.

Saturday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Sunday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Fire weather
High pressure at the surface and aloft will remain parked over the
region providing dry conditions and near record temperatures today.

A cold front is expected to track through our region late Wednesday
and Wednesday night leading to cooler weather and normal
temperatures by Thursday.

Rh values will be in the 80 to 100 percent range tonight and
Wednesday night. Rh values will drop to 45 to 60 percent this
afternoon and Wednesday afternoon.

East to southeast winds at less than 10 mph today and tonight.

Winds shift to southwest at less than 15 mph Wednesday.

Hydrology
No widespread hydrologic issues are expected through the next
week. Fair and warm weather is forecast through mid-week as
high pressure dominates. The next chance for rainfall will be on
Wednesday and Thursday with less than a tenth of an inch of
rainfall expected.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs
on our website.

Climate
Record high temperatures may be possible today.

Here is a list of the current record highs for september 26:
albany ny:
september 26th Tuesday: 89 degrees 2007
daily records date back to 1874
glens falls ny:
september 26th Tuesday: 87 degrees 2007
records date back to 1949
poughkeepsie ny:
september 26th Tuesday: 90 degrees 2007 records date back to
1949, however data is missing from january 1993 through july
2000.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Jvm
near term... Nas
short term... Jvm
long term... Speciale
aviation... Snd
fire weather... Nas jvm
hydrology... Nas jvm
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 4 mi46 min 90°F 1015 hPa77°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 74 mi46 min SSE 5.1 G 6 72°F 72°F1016 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 77 mi46 min SW 7 G 8 69°F 75°F1016.8 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY30 mi23 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds86°F66°F51%1015 hPa

Wind History from POU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmS34SE3SE6CalmSE4E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoN6N4NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days ago6N5N6N7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4NW4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Tivoli, Hudson River, New York
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Tivoli
Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Tue -- 01:05 AM EDT     0.79 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:01 AM EDT     3.61 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:53 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:07 PM EDT     0.99 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:21 PM EDT     4.04 feet High Tide
Tue -- 10:51 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
10.811.72.53.13.43.63.42.82.11.41.111.11.82.63.33.8443.52.71.9

Tide / Current Tables for Kingston Point, Hudson River, New York
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Kingston Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:32 AM EDT     0.79 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:31 AM EDT     3.40 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:36 PM EDT     0.95 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:53 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 06:53 PM EDT     3.79 feet High Tide
Tue -- 10:51 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.80.81.32.12.73.13.43.432.31.61.2111.42.12.93.43.73.83.632.21.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.