Tuesday, November20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Saugerties, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 4:32PM Tuesday November 20, 2018 6:10 AM EST (11:10 UTC) Moonrise 4:27PMMoonset 4:39AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 415 Am Est Tue Nov 20 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon...
Today..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft this afternoon. Rain likely early this morning, then chance of rain late this morning. Slight chance of rain early this afternoon.
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Scattered flurries in the evening.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas subsiding to 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of rain.
ANZ300 415 Am Est Tue Nov 20 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure tracks just to the south of long island this morning, then lifts into the gulf of maine this afternoon, followed by high pressure building in from the west tonight. A strong cold front approaches from the northwest Wednesday morning, then crosses the area Wednesday afternoon and evening. Canadian high pressure builds in through Friday, then slides offshore into Saturday. A storm system approaches from the southwest late Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saugerties village, NY
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location: 42.07, -73.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 201101
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
601 am est Tue nov 20 2018

Synopsis
A mix of rain and snow will continue through this morning as
low pressure tracks south of the region. Some lake effect snow
showers will be possible tonight into Wednesday morning across
the adirondacks. Then, chances for snow and snow squalls will be
possible on Wednesday as a strong arctic front crosses through
the region. This will bring a blast of extremely cold air for
thanksgiving day where high temperatures will struggle to get
out of the single digits and teens.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
A winter weather advisory has been expanded to include northern
saratoga and southern washington counties. The advisory remains
in effect for the schoharie valley, eastern catskills, central
mohawk valley, capital district and central taconics, southern
vt and western ma through 7 pm...

as of 6 am est, snowfall reports are starting to trickle in this
morning with the highest amounts of 3 to 4 inches across
schoharie, albany and schenectady counties. At this time,
snowfall appears limited to the schoharie and mohawk valleys,
capital district and east into southern vermont and the
berkshires. This eastward push will continue through the morning as
the low tracks to the east. So have updated hourly pops and
temps to reflect these trends and sent updates to ndfd and web
servers.

Prev disc... As of 330 am est, snow showers continue across much
of the forecast area this morning. In fact, the better radar
reflectivities and colder cloud tops have shifted further north
so have expanded the winter weather advisory into n. Saratoga
and s. Washington counties for the same time period as the
current advisory. Snow should generally remain light with some
pockets of moderate snow through the morning hours today as the
wave of low pressure passes by to our south. Temperatures should
begin warming above freezing in the valley locations, which
will allow for snow to turn over to rain or become a mix,
limiting snow accumulations. The higher terrain in the
catskills, taconics, berkshires, and southern greens should
remain cold enough for all snow and should expect the higher
snow accumulation totals for the event. Will have to keep an eye
on southern vermont locations for higher snow totals if a
deformation band forms and pivots over the area this afternoon.

An additional surface wave upper impulse, currently
moving into the ohio valley, will pass through the region this
afternoon and evening, potentially sparking off additional snow
showers.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Thursday
On the back side of this impulse tonight, lake effect
snow showers may be possible in the dacks, but other locations
should remain dry. Temperatures overnight will dip into the
teens and low 20s.

On Wednesday, the leading edge of strong, deep cold advection
(arctic front) tracks through our region. The strong low level
forcing and steep low level instability will likely support
development of a snow showers and squalls that will impact the
region during the afternoon and evening hours. Multiple high res
models indicate convective-type snow squalls across the region
during this time frame and will likely impact holiday travelers.

Expect quick bursts of snow with rapidly changing visibilities
and potentially slick roadways. Additional upper level forcing
will track across our northern zones early Wednesday morning.

This could lead to advisory-level snowfall in the southern
adirondacks prior to the snow squall development in the
afternoon and an advisory may be needed later today. Highs
Wednesday are expected in the mid to upper 30s but mid to upper
20s across northern areas. Temperatures drop sharply along and
behind the arctic front.

The sky will clear Wednesday evening as deep cold advection and
gusty northwest winds spread across the region. Lows will
plummet into the single digits Wednesday night with some lake
effect snow bands into the western mohawk valley and southern
adirondacks through early Thursday morning. Wind chill values
will range from 5 to 20 degrees below zero Wednesday night.

Gusty winds along with bitter cold temperatures will be in place
for the thanksgiving holiday, albeit plenty of sunshine. High
temperatures will struggle to get out of the single digits in
the dacks to teens in the valleys, with multiple records being
threatened. See the climate section below for thanksgiving
holiday temperature records.

Long term Thursday night through Monday
The extended forecast begins frigid for late november with a january
type arctic air mass over the region. The mean longwave trough will
impact the northeast through the holiday weekend, though there is a
moderation of temperatures by the weekend. An active pattern sets
up for the second half of the weekend into next week with a blocking
ridge downstream over the north atlantic, and a few coastal
disturbances potentially impacting the region.

Thanksgiving night into Friday night... Arctic high pressure settles
over the region thanksgiving night with diminishing winds and
bitterly cold temps. H850 temps will still be 2-3+ std devs below
normal based on the latest 00z gefs. The actual h850 temps will be
in the -17c to -20c range based on the 00z gfs. Ideal radiational
cooling conditions will set up with clear mostly clear skies and
calm winds. Lows will plummet to zero to 10 below over the southern
adirondacks, lake george region, portions of the mohawk valley and
southern vt with single digits from the capital region south and
east. The arctic sfc anticyclone will slowly shift south and east
of region, and off the southern new england coast by Friday evening.

The strong subsidence from the sfc ridge will yield mostly sunny and
dry conditions with highs still 15 to 20 degrees below normal with
mid and upper 20s in the valley areas, and upper teens to mid 20s
over the hills and mountains. Another cold night is expected fri
night, but low to mid level warm advection will begin as some high
clouds may stream in from the west to southwest after midnight. The
h500 ridge axis moves east of the forecast area by daybreak, as a
digging trough approaches from the midwest and southeast. Lows will
be in the teens with some single numbers over the adirondacks, and a
few lower 20s over the mid-hudson valley southern litchfield county.

Saturday-Saturday night... Warm advection begins ahead of the upper
trough, and wave of low pressure forming near southeast ga and
coastal nc in the morning. The 00z ECMWF holds the pcpn off most of
the day ahead of the warm front and coastal wave. The 00z GFS is a
little quicker with some pcpn getting in locations mainly west of
the hudson river valley. It could begin as a light mix, as removing
the shallow cold air may take time. It is way too early to pinpoint
exact mixed ptypes. The better threat for a light mix based on a
blend of the latest gfs ECMWF thermal profiles with a top down
method is Saturday night. We did get some sleet freezing rain for
southern vt especially east of the green mtns, and near the
foothills of the southern adirondacks. However, we have primarily a
rain snow transition to rain Saturday night. Temps should be rising
overnight, and we did use a non-diurnal trend. Highs rise into 30s
to lower 40s. The lower 40s will from the capital district south and
east. Pops were raised to likely values Saturday night, as
southeast LLJ will focus some atlantic moisture into the region head
of the coastal low and its associated warm front. The pcpn could be
moderate to heavy, as the h500 trough becomes negatively tilted
right over ny and new england. Placement of the coastal low varies
on the medium range guidance and ensembles. The placement of the
coastal low and thermal profiles will play a huge role on the ptypes
and amount of qpf. Lows Sat night will be in the upper 20 to mid 30s
or so.

Sunday into Monday... The coastal low and associated mid and upper
trough move downstream of the region with rain likely tapering to
scattered showers for the second half of the weekend. Temps trend
closer to normal values on Sunday with upper 30s to around 40f over
the higher terrain, and lower to mid 40s in the valleys. A brief
lull may occur Sunday night, but yet another complex storm system
will be moving out of the midwest ohio valley and the mid atlantic
states. This double barrel low pressure system will bring unsettled
weather back into the region with increasing chances of showers
especially Monday afternoon. Lows will be mainly in the 30s Sunday
night, and highs maybe similar to Monday. If these pcpn events
trend wet mainly a rain ptype and heavy in terms of qpf, then
hydro concerns may increase early in the week for portions of the
hydro service area.

Aviation 12z Tuesday through Saturday
Low pressure near southeast pa early this morning will move
northeast to near eastern long island by daybreak, and then move
northeast of CAPE cod by the afternoon.

The low pressure system will continue to bring widespread
ifr low MVFR conditions with occasional lifr CIGS vsbys. The
light snow has been most persistent at kalb psf with ifr
conditions, and it has yet to reach kgfl. We are expecting the
snow to move in between 06z-09z there. Further south, a light
rain snow mix has impacted kpou with some low CIGS on the edge
of ifr lifr. We expect light rain and snow to move in 06z-09z
with ifr lifr conditions. Temps look warm enough for a
transition to rain after 09z at kpou.

Expect widespread ifr lifr conditions at all the TAF sites until
16z-19z tue. A burst of moderate snow is possible in the 12z-
17z time frame for kalb-kpsf north and west as the wave starts
to lift northeast of long island. We kept visibilities at 3 4sm
for now, and will further assess with the next TAF issuance.

Kpou should see the pcpn end first around 16z with low MVFR cigs
lingering. Expect a gradual transition to MVFR CIGS at
kalb kgfl btwn 18z-21z. The snow snow showers will be the most
persistent for kpsf, and we included a prob30 for even some
lingering lifr CIGS between 17z-21z Tue for some snow snow
showers possibly mixing with some rain.VFR conditions should
return to kpou after 21z tue.

Snowfall rates at kgfl kalb kpsf may reach a half an inch an
hour to possibly an inch an hour briefly between 09z and at
least 15z.

Expect conditions to improve toVFR levels between 23z Tue to
01z Wed at kgfl kalb kpsf with scattered stratocumulus and sct-
bkn mid high clouds.

Light variable winds will become north to northeast this morning
at 3-6 kts, then back into the W NW this afternoon early
evening at 5-12 kts with a few gusts in the 15-20 kt range at
kalb kpsf.

Outlook...

Tuesday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of shsn.

Wednesday: moderate operational impact. Breezy chance of shra... Shsn.

Wednesday night: low operational impact. Breezy slight chance of shsn.

Thanksgiving day: low operational impact. Breezy no sig wx.

Thursday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Friday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Friday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Saturday: moderate operational impact. Chance of ra.

Fire weather
A mix of rain and snow will continue through this morning as
low pressure tracks south of the region. Some lake effect snow
showers will be possible tonight into Wednesday morning across
the adirondacks. Then, chances for snow and snow squalls will be
possible on Wednesday as a strong arctic front crosses through
the region. This will bring a blast of extremely cold air for
thanksgiving day where high temperatures will struggle to get
out of the single digits and teens.

Hydrology
River flows will continue to lower into next week with colder
than normal temperatures continuing, and mainly light
precipitation events. No widespread hydro problems are
anticipated.

A disturbance and a cold front will bring chances of snow or a
rain-snow mix (in the mid-hudson valley and NW ct) through this
morning. QPF totals of a tenth of an inch to up to half of an
inch is expected, with the higher amounts south and east of the
greater capital district.

Scattered snow showers and squalls are expected along a cold
front Wednesday. Colder than normal temperatures persist into
the thanksgiving holiday with flows continuing to recede.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs on our
website.

Climate
The record low MAX temperature for albany for thanksgiving day is 19
degrees, set on thanksgiving day (november 28th) 1901. The record
low minimum for thanksgiving for albany is 5 degrees (november 23rd)
1972.

Albany's record low MAX for november 22nd is 25 degrees set in 1880.

The low daily mean temperature is 18.5 degrees also set in 1880. The
record min temperature for november 22nd is 9 degrees set in 1969.

Daily records for albany are from 1874 to 2017.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... Winter weather advisory until 7 pm est this evening for nyz041-
047>054-058>061-063-084.

Ma... Winter weather advisory until 7 pm est this evening for maz001-
025.

Vt... Winter weather advisory until 7 pm est this evening for
vtz013>015.

Synopsis... Jlv
near term... Jlv
short term... Nas jlv
long term... Wasula
aviation... Wasula
fire weather... Nas jlv
hydrology... Nas jlv
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 4 mi40 min 33°F 1013 hPa33°F
TKPN6 4 mi40 min N 4.1 G 6 34°F 40°F34°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 74 mi46 min NE 5.1 G 7 41°F 51°F1010.6 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 77 mi40 min NE 4.1 G 8 40°F 53°F1011.5 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY30 mi17 minN 31.75 miUnknown Precip Fog/Mist34°F32°F92%1012 hPa

Wind History from POU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4NW4NW5NW4N4N3N4N3NW4N4N3N3N4N3N6N5N3
1 day agoCalmCalmE4NE3CalmNW3CalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmN3N4NW3CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoSW7SW6SW6SW10
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Tide / Current Tables for Tivoli, Hudson River, New York
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Tivoli
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Tue -- 03:39 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:42 AM EST     0.12 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:51 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:38 AM EST     4.17 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:27 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:30 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:16 PM EST     0.22 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.73.12.31.40.70.30.20.81.933.74.14.13.8321.20.60.20.41.32.43.23.7

Tide / Current Tables for Kingston Point, Hudson River, New York
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Kingston Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:39 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:12 AM EST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:51 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:08 AM EST     3.93 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:27 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:30 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:46 PM EST     0.21 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:29 PM EST     3.69 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.32.61.710.40.10.31.22.33.23.73.93.83.22.41.50.90.40.20.81.72.73.33.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.