Tuesday, March28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Saugerties, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 7:19PM Tuesday March 28, 2017 11:53 AM EDT (15:53 UTC) Moonrise 7:17AMMoonset 8:06PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1123 Am Edt Tue Mar 28 2017
This afternoon..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Isolated showers early...then showers with isolated tstms. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt...becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft this evening...then 1 ft or less. Showers...especially this evening. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming nw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less...then 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain after midnight.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming E 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less...then 1 to 2 ft. Rain likely.
Sat..NE winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Rain likely in the morning...then chance of rain at night.
ANZ300 1123 Am Edt Tue Mar 28 2017
Synopsis for long island waters and new york harbor.. A stationary front will remain to the S today. Low pres will pass to the south tonight. High pres will build in on Wed and Thu...then pass east Thu night. Low pres approaching from the central states will impact the waters on Fri and Sat.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saugerties village, NY
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location: 42.07, -73.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 281028
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
628 am edt Tue mar 28 2017

Synopsis
Despite abundant cloud cover, temperatures will be milder
today than the past few days. In addition, an approaching cold
front will allow for some rain showers, especially during the
afternoon hours. Behind the cold front, drier weather will return
for Wednesday and Thursday with some breaks in the cloud cover.

Another storm system with rain or snow will impact the region on
Friday into Saturday.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
As of 628 am edt... Our region is in a lull between storm
systems, as one shortwave is departing off nova scotia, while
another one starts to approach from the ohio valley. At the
surface, an area of low pressure is located along a frontal
boundary over eastern ohio, and this boundary extends eastward
as a stationary front across the mid-atlantic region. Our region
remains on the cool side of this boundary and it appears that
this will continue to be the case through the day as the wave of
low pressure slides eastward.

Abundant low level moisture over the region has allowed for
plenty of low stratus and fog this morning, especially in
locations where temperatures were able to cool into the 30s. In
addition, there have been a few passing light rain showers, but
the more appreciable precipitation is still back across the
upper ohio valley. Through the next few hours, mainly dry
weather is expected, but there will continue to be areas of fog,
some of which may be locally dense. This fog will start to
break up somewhat after daybreak, but it still will continue to
be fairly cloudy into the morning hours.

The 09z 3km hrrr shows precip with the approaching shortwave
trough and low pressure area to reach southern areas by 10-11
am. Rainfall will take until the afternoon to make it into the
capital region and western new england, while northern areas
(such as the adirondacks) may only see a few passing showers,
as the best moisture and lift remains south of the area. Rain
showers will be fairly light for the most part, although with
pwats rising up to around an inch by later today, cannot totally
rule out a heavier burst late today. The latest nam12 and gfs20
all suggest the best elevated instability will remain south of
the area, so won't include any thunder with the showers at this
time either.

Despite the clouds/showers, warming temps aloft will help boost
sfc temps much warmer than recent days. Temps look to reach the
mid 40s to low 50s by late today for the whole area. Winds will
continue to be fairly light.

Short term /6 pm this evening through Wednesday night/
Showers will be ending from west to east this evening as the
storm system starts to move away from the area. However, it will
stay fairly cloudy into the overnight hours, as lingering low
level moisture will get trapped and there really won't be much
clearing until very late tonight or early tomorrow morning. As a
result of the clouds, temps will only fall into the upper 20s to
upper 30s, with the bulk of the region remaining above freezing.

Cannot rule out a lingering rain or snow showers over the
adirondacks and southern green mountains later tonight thanks to
the nearby upper level trough, but most areas should be drying
out.

On Wednesday, clearing will occur during the morning and
northwest winds will start to pick up. Despite being behind the
front, good mixing and a partly sunny sky will allow temps to
reach into the 40s to mid 50s across most areas. It should be
dry for most areas, but again totally can't rule out a brief
rain or snow shower over the highest terrain, as temps aloft
crash throughout the day.

Chilly and dry weather is expected for Wednesday night with a
partly to mostly clear sky. Lows will be in the 20s.

Long term /Thursday through Monday/
Active period of weather expected in the long term forecast period
to be followed by somewhat tranquil period of weather for the first
weekend of april.

We begin on with a tranquil note as large surface high transferring
across southern canada extends its influence across our region
through Thursday. While h850 temperatures are expected to remain
below 0c, under late march partial sunshine, temperatures should
moderate into the 40s and perhaps touch 50f for valley locations.

This all changes Thursday night into Friday as storm system
currently tracking across the four-corners region approaches the
ohio valley region. Impressive moisture transport from the gulf of
mexico and isentropic lift commences Thursday night into Friday
morning. Thermal profiles along with low level ageostrophic flow
from the northeast should keep temperatures mainly cold enough for
light snow to evolve from southwest to northeast overnight into the
Friday morning commute. QPF from the global models are a bit high
with values approaching half an inch by late Friday morning.

Assuming this falls as mainly snow, several inches of accumulation
are possible before a transition to rain occurs Friday afternoon.

However, thermal profiles differ with respect to the
ecmwf/gfs/canadian from warm to cold, respectfully. Then
differences become more apparent as the canadian is the slowest with
the departure of this system Friday night with the ECMWF the most
progressive. We followed a blended approach from wpc and model-
blends.

The weekend appears to be generally tranquil with a broad cyclonic
flow and maybe a weak short wave or two for some terrain based
showers. Otherwise, as we enter the month of april, high
temperatures should moderate through the 40s and even some lower 50s
where enough breaks in the overcast do occur.

Looking just beyond the long term, another active period of weather
appears to be on the horizon for early next week.

Aviation /12z Tuesday through Saturday/
Based on the latest kenx radar data, mainly dry weather is
expected over the next few hours, but plenty of low-level
moisture will lead to occasional ifr conditions due to low
stratus and fog, especially for kpsf/kgfl.

Some improvement in ceiling heights and visibility is expected
by mid-morning with a brief return toVFR/MVFR, however, some
showers are expected by the afternoon hours. Ifr conditions are
possible within any rain showers Tuesday afternoon, otherwise
expect primarily MVFR conditions.

Rain showers should end around 00z Wednesday, although it will
remain ovc into Tuesday night due to lingering low level
moisture. Some MVFR/ifr conditions due to fog and low clouds are
likely once again tonight since there won't be enough flow just
yet to get the drier air in until the day on Wednesday.

Outlook...

Wednesday: low operational impact. Breezy.

Wednesday night to Thursday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Thursday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of ra... Sn.

Friday-Friday night: high operational impact. Likely ra... Sn.

Saturday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra.

Fire weather
Much of eastern new york and western new england continues to
have snow on the ground. Some of the valley areas have bare
patches, but the mountains have a deep snow pack. A moist and
damp air mass will be in place today with light winds, as a
cold front and a weak disturbance will bring some showers
through early this evening. High pressure will build in for the
mid-week into Thursday with cooler and drier weather. Some wind
gusts could reach around 25 mph on Wednesday, although rh values
won't be very low at all.

Hydrology
Some rain showers are expected today with the passage of a cold
front, especially for the afternoon and early evening hours.

Additional rainfall will range from a tenth of an inch or so
over the northern basins to a third of an inch over the the mid-
hudson valley and NW ct. This rainfall, along with the expected
snowmelt, will cause some within bank rises on rivers and
streams. However, this rain and snowmelt is not likely to
produce any concern for flooding at this time. The latest mmefs
guidance and official forecasts have a few points getting to
close or up to the ALERT or action stage, but no flooding is
forecast.

Flows will recede Tuesday night through the mid-week with a
colder and drier air mas building in. Temps are expected to go
below freezing Wed night and Thu night with a normal diurnal
melting of the snowpack in spots.

Some additional precipitation in the form of rain and snow is
expected for Friday into Saturday with another storm system.

There is some uncertainty with the track and the amount of
moisture associated with it. It be could be a moderate to heavy
precipitation event, but it is a low confidence forecast at
this time.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our
website.

Aly watches/warnings/advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Frugis
near term... Frugis
short term... Frugis
long term... Bgm
aviation... Frugis
fire weather... Frugis/wasula
hydrology... Frugis/wasula


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 4 mi83 min 44°F 1014 hPa42°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 74 mi53 min E 8.9 G 12 42°F 1014.7 hPa (-0.4)
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 77 mi53 min ESE 4.1 G 8 43°F 40°F1015 hPa (-0.8)

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY30 mi60 minN 010.00 miOvercast44°F41°F89%1014 hPa

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Last 24hrNW3CalmCalmS3W4SW8W5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3N3CalmCalmCalmSE4E5Calm
1 day agoE5E4E7E5NE6NE6NE3E4CalmSE5SE8SE3CalmSE4CalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNW9N10NE5N12N7CalmN6N7N5NE6NE8N9NE5NE5N3N6N3N4N6N5N3N4N5N4

Tide / Current Tables for Tivoli, Hudson River, New York
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Tivoli
Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Tue -- 02:32 AM EDT     4.61 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:17 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 09:23 AM EDT     -0.51 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:56 PM EDT     4.63 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:05 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 09:40 PM EDT     -0.59 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.944.54.64.13.220.90-0.5-0.30.72.33.64.44.64.33.62.41.10.2-0.4-0.50.3

Tide / Current Tables for Kingston Point, Hudson River, New York
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Kingston Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:08 AM EDT     4.38 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:17 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:57 AM EDT     -0.54 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:34 PM EDT     4.36 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:05 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 09:15 PM EDT     -0.63 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.24.14.44.23.62.51.40.4-0.3-0.5-01.32.73.74.34.33.92.91.70.6-0.2-0.6-0.40.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.